Search found 3838 matches

by lazyday
Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enhancing the dividend yield strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 1155

Re: Enhancing the dividend yield strategy

dkturner, You might take a look at the paper from W Bernstein and R Arnott "The Two Percent Dillution" easy to find pdf with google.

That's just part of the paper, but is addressed.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 2148

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

Hussman is interesting this week as always concerned about valuations. The opening para in particular was unsettling. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140317.htm This makes no sense to me (my bold ): During the past 14-year period, the S&P 500 has achieved a total return, including dividends, of just 3.3% annually. Even this outcome has been achieved only because market valuations have now been driven more than 100% above pre-bubble historical norms, If you're looking at the last 14 years, why compare to norms before the bubble? PE10 for example is lower today than it was 14 years ago. The return was not achieved because of an increase in valuations like PE10. It was achieved in spite of a negative speculative return, using Bogle's f...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. B on Smart Beta: the new Bozo factor
Replies: 6
Views: 1245

Re: Dr. B on Smart Beta: the new Bozo factor

I recently tried weighting domestic, international, and emerging markets based on the average of their total book value, sales, and cashflow. Years ago I read good things about P/S when comparing across countries over time, at least within an industry. Not sure if still as true. Part of the idea was that taxes and accounting conventions were different around the world. For example, in some places, reported earnings were minimized for tax reasons, while some places would maximize reported earnings. Some place(s) allowed two books, one for taxes and one for reporting earnings to the public. Sales was less manipulated. Dividend yield is also a candidate for similar reasons. But in some places dividends vary a lot from year to year with profit...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. B on Smart Beta: the new Bozo factor
Replies: 6
Views: 1245

Re: Dr. B on Smart Beta: the new Bozo factor

ETF.com: Do you have a sense, as I do, that “factor-focused” investing is reaching some critical mass these days—and that we can see that in the behavior of the Wall Street marketing machine? Bernstein: I think so. The bozos have jumped into the factors with both feet. ETF.com: And this won’t end well, is what history tells us? Bernstein: Exactly. They’re not called risk premia for nothing. This seems to imply that Value, Small, and Profitability either are or will likely become expensive because of popularity, and then will eventually do poorly. It seems to me that Small is already expensive, not sure about the others. Perhaps the expected return premium today for Small is um, small, relative to its risk. Larry Swedroe has posted and writ...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much
Replies: 42
Views: 8396

Re: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much

telemark wrote:Sales of Windows 7 on eBay have more than doubled during the last seven months as people scramble to beat Microsoft's 8 April cut-off
Amazingly, this was forseen by some people.

How To Profit From The Coming Bubble In Windows 7 Licence Prices
http://www.amazon.com/B000AQ1JZO
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble Behavior?
Replies: 18
Views: 2980

Re: Bubble Behavior?

ot1138 wrote:So bitcoin then...
Some people have written lists of characteristics that make up a bubble. Nobel winner Shiller has. So has author Edward Chancellor.

Most or all items on those lists apply to Bitcoin. For example, increasing fraud or abuse!

I haven't read the thread here on Bitcoin, but I'll bet this has been discussed there.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?
Replies: 38
Views: 6189

Re: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?

Could Vanguard's Index of REITs be a possibility here as well for ER purposes? REITs do usually have higher yield than other equity, but I don't know if this benefit is negated by the use of leverage. In a depression, some of us think stock dividends might save a retiree. But leverage might kill a REIT. I'm not sure if REITs have a special benefit for ERs. Diversification with assets that might behave differently can be worth considering for most investors. Maybe special for ER where diversification can reduce long term shortfall risk in a Japan like situation. I like David Swenson's take on diversification in Unconventional Success. I also read his Pioneering Portfolio Management, where he discusses long lived portfolios like endowments. ...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?
Replies: 38
Views: 6189

Re: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?

An an alternative to "dividend stocks", I would suggest that the OP also consider a couple of other options: 1) Adding more bonds 2) Adding a minimum variance/low volatility fund like VG's new fund or the ETFs offered by iShares at low cost, (which also happen to pay higher yields than the market). In addition to the Larry Portfolio mentioned earlier, another possibility is asymmetric rebalancing. Normal rebalancing has us selling bonds to buy stocks when the market falls. But a very long and/or deep bear market may then lead to depletion of bonds. Instead we might decide to limit the rebalancing from bonds to stocks in some ways. I've proposed the idea a retiree not rebalance from bonds to stocks until either the market has fall...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?
Replies: 38
Views: 6189

Re: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Everything "equities" got creamed during the Great Depression,
Yes, but I believe that a dollar of stocks at the peak became about 11 cents, yet a dollar of smallcap stocks fell to about 5 or 6 cents. An additional 50% loss!

A deep small value tilt may have fared far worse, not sure if there is data.

Depending on % bonds, you might have been OK even if retired in 1929. I don't know if there's an SWR study for the Larry Portfolio.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 2148

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

bernston, That longer term P/B chart is interesting. I find it especially promising because it isn't inflated by abnormally high profit margins. For example, the market looks expensive using PE10, but it is even more expensive because profits the last 10 years have come with high margins. If margins return to normal, profits will likely fall or slow. This also applies to P/peakE, dividend yield and some others. But doesn't seem to apply to P/B.
Random Musings wrote:, some of the charts seem to say roughly fairly valued while some say overvalued. I don't see a lot of metrics that say screaming buy.
Maybe the P/B chart is the most optimistic one with a history of at least 35 years. Yet even it doesn't show a cheap market, just average over the time period.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?
Replies: 38
Views: 6189

Re: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?

stlutz wrote:An an alternative to "dividend stocks", I would suggest that the OP also consider a couple of other options:

1) Adding more bonds
2) Adding a minimum variance/low volatility fund like VG's new fund or the ETFs offered by iShares at low cost, (which also happen to pay higher yields than the market).
Larry Swedroe has suggested a high tilt portfolio with lots of bonds. The "Larry Portfolio" or "Swedroe Portfolio". Not my thing, but probably would have done well historically. Not sure about the Great Depression, when small and probably small value got creamed. Bonds did well, so maybe would have been ok.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?
Replies: 38
Views: 6189

Re: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?

SGM wrote:I wouldn't reach for too high dividend paying stocks, but rather buy good companies that have a history of raising dividends.
Agree on high yield and good companies. I'd be a little careful about the history of raising dividends. A company might raise dividends one cent per year, falling behind inflation, and still make it onto a list of good dividend companies. Lowes might be an example, not sure.

Not saying there's no use in a long history of rising dividends. I just wouldn't use it exclusively or simplistically.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 2148

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

bernston, Nice charts on that site. I like U.S. Valuation S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) Chart U.S. Valuation S&P 500 Price to Peak Earnings (P/PE) Chart U.S. Valuation S&P Tobin's Q Chart U.S. Valuation Market Cap to GDP Chart U.S. Valuation S&P 500 Dividend Yield Chart when set to "Max". In your post, the time period is short. Even Max for some of the above charts is fairly short. Since the late 1990s, much of the time the market has been quite expensive. Shiller has said that a bubble doesn't always pop all at once and return completely to normal. According to others, usually after a bubble price will fall below the mean or trend. This has not happened since 2000 peak, even including 2009 low. I'm not pr...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I don't want to upgrade XP just yet, is that ok?
Replies: 86
Views: 12754

Re: I don't want to upgrade XP just yet, is that ok?

cheapedy wrote:If your PC has at least 1gb processor and DVD drive I recommend Linux Mint. Its fabulous! It's ready out of the box.
Does Mint now default to a lightweight desktop for old computers? When I last used it, it was using either Gnome or KDE which was becoming too slow for my computer, which is faster than 1g CPU.

I like lubuntu, but someone posted here about http://lxle.net/ which has proprietary codecs and such preinstalled like Mint does. It even has an XP theme or "paradigm" for Linux newbies switching from XP. It's a lubuntu LTS respin. Sounds good though I haven't tried it.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?
Replies: 38
Views: 6189

Re: Dividend stocks for current income in early retirement?

Though dividend investing has been discussed to exhaustion here, this question is a bit different in focusing on early retirement. I think that ER people can have a different risk profile than accumulators or retirees of typical age. I suspect that with a fair amount of knowledge and care, it may be possible to create a dividend portfolio that does not maximize volatility adjusted returns, but reduces the risk of running out of money. I have no evidence and this does not appear to have been studied. Those who say my claim is impossible also do not have evidence. On Bogleheads and dividends: I don't see this as a Boglehead strategy. For every time Bogle has said good things about owning dividend stocks, he's said better things about market i...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire in your 30s?
Replies: 93
Views: 16325

Re: Did you retire in your 30s?

Leemiller wrote:Unless you're paying a property manager, you don't sound retired to me. You sound like you manage your investment properties for a living.
On one of the early retirement forums, some seem to consider it honorable to not work for one second a year, and argue about things like this.

I'd see it as a way to avoid awkwardness with the "what do you do?" question. Even if pay for management, still not a lie to say you manage properties. Misleading maybe but probably not a lie if involved in any way.
by lazyday
Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire in your 30s?
Replies: 93
Views: 16325

Re: Did you retire in your 30s?

Videogames wrote:I doubt that I will ever do stocks again.
Have to do what you're comfortable with, but stocks can give diversification for bad times in real estate.

Expected returns from stocks aren't great today though.
by lazyday
Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I don't want to upgrade XP just yet, is that ok?
Replies: 86
Views: 12754

Re: I don't want to upgrade XP just yet, is that ok?

You can generally keep using Windows software when the computer is completely disconnected from the internet. You can unplug ethernet and/or disable wifi in the BIOS settings. To safely use the internet, you can use Linux without installing it or harming your Windows setup. You can try this now. Create a "Live CD" or "Live USB" of a lightweight Linux distribution intended for old computers. One example is Lubuntu. Boot the computer from the Live CD or USB, and don't click on the "install" icon. Depending on the distribution you chose, click on "Firefox", "Chromium", "Iceweasel", "Seamonkey", or "Dillo". If there's no icon with the distribution you chose, look fo...
by lazyday
Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Chromebook?
Replies: 51
Views: 9348

Re: Which Chromebook?

I'm starting to lean towards a Chromebox again. Lately I've kept the top post updated here but no promises--plenty of links though: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=130118

The new Asus Chromebox is available now.
by lazyday
Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Chromebook?
Replies: 51
Views: 9348

Re: Which Chromebook?

Thanks for replies. One decision is touchscreen or not. , the decision has more to do with future applications than current real-world use. Think of it as a ‘chicken before the egg’ deal. “The main reason why we’re going down the touchscreen road is to encourage developers to start making applications that are touch-sensitive,” Goffredo explained to Lifehacker. “At this stage, it’s more about the browsing experience and manipulating photos; zooming in and zooming out. But we do see the market maturing as more and more [touch] Chromebooks go out.” Goffredo said that Acer wasn’t just testing the waters with the C720P and will be fully committed to touch-based Chromebooks moving forward: “We’ve got a detailed roadmap in place. This year we’ll ...
by lazyday
Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:41 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Suggestions for the Wiki
Replies: 699
Views: 537635

Re: Suggestions for the Wiki

It might be nice if the http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns#Expected_future_returns page included not just estimated numbers, but examples of how to estimate expected returns. Some authors have shown some detail in how they come up with estimates. For example William Bernstein, Damodaran, Bogle, Larry Swedroe. GMO publishes estimates, and sometimes writes about their methods. A few links: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=489602 http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2014/01/a-good-year-ends-but-whats-next-for.html http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ (see "Implied Equity Risk Premium" section) http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Dividend_discount_model (no examples of how to use) https://perso...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 11, 2014 10:46 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Raddr's forum OK?
Replies: 2
Views: 5035

Raddr's forum OK?

Anyone know the status of Raddr forums? No page since at least this weekend.

It's linked from here: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Financia ... _and_blogs

Maybe he's just on vacation.

Not many ER financial forums left. intercest's Retire Early Home Page forum seems gone, with only a Hocomania forum left. The Motley Fool ER forum seems to be exclusively politics now. The No Fee forum only lasted a few years. Dory's forum is still active, though it's commercial now: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/
by lazyday
Tue Mar 11, 2014 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you have a favorite chocolate bar?
Replies: 86
Views: 10933

Re: Do you have a favorite chocolate bar?

nisiprius wrote:Chocolate Covered Cacao Nibs.
Hershey's made (makes?) a chocolate bar with nibs in it.
http://www.candyblog.net/blog/item/hers ... ao_reserve

Haven't seen in a long time. I've had plain nibs, but the ones I tried were much too burnt for me.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09
Replies: 104
Views: 9744

Re: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09

Agree it is much better to look to old threads than to ask after the fact. Memories are faulty even without cognitive dissonance. All the "plan B" stuff at the time just floored me. I knew that people have a normal human reaction to mass panic, and tend to buy high sell low, but didn't realize just how extreme. You can find a few people happy to buy, but very much in the minority. You might find a post or two from me about my buying garbage bank stocks, posted before they went bankrupt or shareholders were otherwise cleaned out. On another forum, someone held lots of BoA and retirement was cut short. Buying in a panic doesn't always work out. Buying a small value or microcap index would have worked pretty well if you managed to ti...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do discount brokers make money from passive investors?
Replies: 19
Views: 6715

Re: How do discount brokers make money from passive investor

lockgray wrote:Now, say I have an account with $100k (that is, beyond any minimum account balance requirement) and the whole amount is invested in a single VG LifeStrategy fund. There's no cash or anything else in that account. And say I hold on to that fund for 30 years, and do nothing else with that account - no buy/sell orders, no money transfers - absolutely nothing.
You're making it pretty hard on them! :)

With dividend reinvestment such that the broker never gets cash for even a moment, the only way I can see is by having more account assets when the company is sold to another broker.
by lazyday
Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Chromebook?
Replies: 51
Views: 9348

Re: Which Chromebook?

I'm thinking of using a Chromebook as a desktop, connected to a monitor and keyboard. Chromebook users, (1) Which model do you have? (2) Under what conditions does it slow down your work or play, compared to faster hardware? If you have Crouton installed, please say so, as it may cause some people problems with the Chrome OS boot. (3) If yours has a fan, what would you compare its volume to? Could you hear it in a completely silent room from 20 feet away? What is the sound quality: buzzing. whooshing, harsh, pleasant, etc? Does it cycle often, so it may be hard to get used to the noise? If you websurf without using video, does it stay off, or somewhat quiet? (4) If you use wired internet, have you had problems connecting? Most models have U...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebox
Replies: 19
Views: 10401

Re: Chromebox

Can now preorder Asus for Mar 14 delivery. See updated top post in this thread. Asus told Liliputing and Anand ( twice ) it would be fanless, but news has changed : Last month Asus told us these systems would be fanless, but the company made a last-minute change and included a fan due to lack of ambient temperature control. I’m told the fan won’t need to operate very often, and it will reportedly run quietly and shut off quickly when it does power up. Hopefully I’ll get a chance to test that out for myself soon. Big downer for me. The ports on the Asus are nice, but I don't see much point in this $179 box vs a $200 Chromebook with mostly the same specs. I am using laptops as desktops now. Chromebook as desktop gives option of repurposing in...
by lazyday
Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gagging on Health Care Stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 2368

Re: Gagging on Health Care Stocks?

Random Musings wrote:It's just noise, tune it out.
Yes, a drop of less than 2% over 2 days is probably pure noise.

If you want some guesses about a cause, you could look to stock research and analysis if your broker provides any. Some brokers provide industry coverage, or you could look to the big pharma stocks.

Often nobody really knows why stock prices do what they do in the short run.
by lazyday
Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog article: S&P and Russell drop BDCs
Replies: 2
Views: 520

Re: Blog article: S&P and Russell drop BDCs

Never noticed that BDCs don't pay corporate tax.

Maybe companies like Leucadia don't use the structure because it's too restrictive?
by lazyday
Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you have a favorite chocolate bar?
Replies: 86
Views: 10933

Re: Do you have a favorite chocolate bar?

I find that: (1) It's a matter of taste. I prefer dark chocolate. There are flavors in many dark chocolates I find offensive, such as a very burnt flavor or a strong fruit flavor. I didn't read this whole thread, but several of the favorite bars in the first posts are examples of these flavors. In life away from the internet, I haven't found suggestions helpful. (2) Flavor of a brand can change greatly over time. Several brands I used to love I no longer enjoy. Only one brand has become more to my liking. Yet it doesn't do it for me like former products, and I am still seeking that high. (3) Products can disappear. Including my favorites. (4) Prices keep rising as more people are clued in, as the law of economy of scale does not seem to app...
by lazyday
Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: best tips for passwords?
Replies: 141
Views: 19482

Re: best tips for passwords?

But a computer can become sentient if it runs the tic tac toe app enough times. :)
by lazyday
Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Do Individual Investors Underperform the Market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3631

Re: How Much Do Individual Investors Underperform the Market

If it were true, a reliable way to outperform the market would be to make the opposite trades. Maybe it's not profitable after expenses. I think there's some data that active investing in general can have alpha before costs. You have to pay for research, talented people, and other costs. Same would apply if taking advantage of investors who underperform the market. It just makes my ears prick up when I hear that individual investors are somehow reliably bad at timing. I don't think they can be, if markets are efficient. I haven't read EMH literature recently, but not sure it forbids doing worse than the market. I've never been a big EMH believer myself, at least not the stronger versions. "reliably bad": Probably not in short tim...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing Russian stocks right now
Replies: 22
Views: 2143

Re: Timing Russian stocks right now

BogleInvestorLondon wrote:I thought regulations would be much better in the US.
Reporting regulations for stocks listed in US can be better than for some companies that aren't listed here. I believe that some stocks trade in US but aren't "listed". Pink sheets maybe.

Reporting regulations may get you more info, but may not save you from a market crash or political risk.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook as main computer?
Replies: 73
Views: 14617

Re: Chromebook as main computer?

sunnyday wrote:If someone uses a Chromebook, how much of their data is actually sent to Google? I don't think it's all, like you mention.
Agreed.

If I use a Chromebook to:
- Visit my bank and broker websites
- Edit my spreadsheets and other documents on Office 365
- Post on Bogleheads
- Watch Caturday videos on Dailymotion

I don't think google will get any of my data. If google sneaks data to their servers, people will notice. Hackers and security experts look for this kind of thing.

If I don't trust any cloud software companies with my data, and want to use a spreadsheet, then a Chromebook does not meet my needs.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:02 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads.org Home Page Updated
Replies: 230
Views: 76530

Re: Bogleheads.org Home Page Updated

LadyGeek wrote:sidebar is now on the right-side of the page
Very nice. I usually use very large fonts, and my 1920 wide screen is no longer considered high resolution, so had wasted space and/or had to scroll before.

Now the right side column is off screen for me. For a newbie, links like "Getting Started" still show on the top for someone who doesn't notice the right side column.

The homepage is still friendly to those who set background to black, as before.

A+, thanks.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Chromebook?
Replies: 51
Views: 9348

Re: Which Chromebook?

Expected release of April 2014: Samsung Chromebook 2 with 13" 1080p screen, fast 8 core CPU, and certified for Google Hangouts.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2103484/ ... creen.html

Seems to come with extra software.

EDIT: for those who care, looks like it won't have an IPS screen. Though I'm not sure that's as important these days. Maybe at this price point it will be a very good TN.
http://blogs.computerworld.com/laptops/ ... romebook-2

HP Chromebook 11 has IPS, but not 1080. It's fanless and lightweight. Not as fast as newer models.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing Russian stocks right now
Replies: 22
Views: 2143

Re: Timing Russian stocks right now

Sometimes people overreact to new information, sometimes they underreact. It can be difficult to guess which is happening. Some try to analyze valuations and expected returns, but it is tricky.

In a situation like Russia today, there are further complications. For local invesors who are Russian citizens, stock intrinsic values may have dropped. But for outsiders, those values may have fallen further because of political risks such as nationalization of corporate assets. Governments might take actions during or after global conflicts which hurt foreign investors more than local.

The market price may reflect some averaging of these two values, perhaps making stocks cheap for locals and expensive for foreigners.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Non-traditional ...in so many ways.
Replies: 59
Views: 7302

Re: Non-traditional ...in so many ways.

but the Vanguard reality is no different than any other companies offering out there. Some of there funds have evenly rediculous fees...or dismal performance. Vanguard is not a non-profit organization either, CEOs, Managers and the like want to get payed and do so competetively - guess where that money is coming from When I've compared the prospecus of a Vanguard fund to the prospectus of a similar fund from Fidelity for example, I've found significant differences in favor of VG. The Vanguard funds with high fees are expensive to run. Fidelity and Schwab probably take losses on some funds. We might try to take advantage, but I'd be careful, since they have the advantage on us. We are outsiders with limited knowledge and resources. VG is no...
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Do Individual Investors Underperform the Market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3631

Re: How Much Do Individual Investors Underperform the Market

bpp,

An individual investor might make behavioral errors, buying high and selling low. An institutional investor might gain from this, but those gains will likely all go to expenses, transaction costs, and managers so the instutional fund doesn't outperform.

The individual can also have poor risk adjusted returns by taking on uncompensated risk. In theory, not using efficient fronteir or tangent portfolio. Maybe individual stocks. Failure to diversify in general.
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Post free Financial-related time-limited eBook offers here
Replies: 9
Views: 1672

Re: Post free Financial-related time-limited eBook offers he

Subscribed. :)

(clicked "Subscribe topic" near bottom left of page)

Here's some chapters of a book highly recommended by Larry Swedroe:
http://www.amazon.com/Expected-Returns- ... B00995OUQ2

Do you want to limit to free, or include books under x$ and/or more than xx% off?

For example Thinking Fast and Slow is now $2.99: http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slo ... 0374533555
by lazyday
Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook as main computer?
Replies: 73
Views: 14617

Re: Chromebook as main computer?

Gleevac,

Chrome OS devices like Chromebook and Chromebox have security features and designs that you cannot get with standard Windows or Mac. Click the link on my earlier post for explanation.

One example: some web advertisements have malicious code in them, and when exploits are new, antivirus software can miss them. Carefully visit any friendly webpage with those ads using Windows, and again on a Chromebook. The Chromebook might still be compromised, but when you reboot you should be fine. Not on Windows.

Which OS you choose depends on your needs and priorities. If your main concern is security and Chromebook meets your needs, it's hard to legitimately argue it isn't superior.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?
Replies: 30
Views: 4619

Re: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?

deikel wrote:so far it seems come down to:

frugality
pension and SS
bonds in the '00 years
luck (another word for caution in planning)
market timing and re-allocation
In some cases a backup plan might have been very important. I think I've seen a post or two about people who returned to work part time when portfolio shrunk too much. Not sure if here or early-retirement.org forums.

Some people might have plans to cut spending if needed, including possibly moving in with others.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?
Replies: 30
Views: 4619

Re: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?

FrugalInvestor wrote:The CAGR of the S&P 500 including dividends from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2013 was 3.55%, not zero
I'd prefer to use total real return, accounting for both inflation and dividends. This will bring it back down towards zero.

Or look at the math including withdrawals to simulate what a 2000 retiree might have experienced.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?
Replies: 30
Views: 4619

Re: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?

even if you made a good deal of money in the 90s, you might have been encouraged to jump off the wheel and retire early(ier), both because the past looked rosy, you piled on money very well and the market was your friend and you might have expected the show to last forever All makes sense to me. I remember in mid to late 1990s trying to convince someone that market returns of something like 15-20%+ are not normal, but he insisted on using recent extremes for his own planning. For my assumptions I was using historical data which was also probably inflated because of time period ending with an expensive market. I didn't know about sequence of returns risk, but did happen to plan for the worst sequence by assuming a drop right at the start. I...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:46 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Replying in a thread you started
Replies: 13
Views: 3068

Re: Replying in a thread you started

nisiprius wrote:It's not like some Internet forums where people rejoice in having an in-group who knows the secret netiquette rules and love to pounce on newcomers for violating them.
Luckily I haven't run into those, or at least didn't notice.

I've been online a while, but never was much of a social media person. Might have posted on usenet a total of three times in my life.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook as main computer?
Replies: 73
Views: 14617

Re: Chromebook as main computer?

sunnyday wrote:The Chromebook isn't to save a few bucks -- it's for security and simplicity.
It can be for all three. :)

Because a Chromebook is more efficient, it costs less $ per unit of speed.

This also can mean lower weight, less heat, more quiet, greater reliability, and/or longer battery life.

They are more efficient because
- Designed from the ground up and semi-"Walled garden"
- Less overhead than more versatile OS like Windows, Mac, Linux
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodity Index ETF Massive Tracking Error?
Replies: 6
Views: 787

Re: Commodity Index ETF Massive Tracking Error?

larryswedroe wrote:Unfortunately there is really no way to know, to parse the data.
OK, thanks. I was hoping there were creative ways to make a good guess.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?
Replies: 30
Views: 4619

Re: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?

goaties wrote:What worked? Being frugal.
This was and is a basic part of my plan.

Retire early with a small portfolio, be frugal, and if it goes well, you can improve lifestyle. If it goes terribly, return to work. If it goes only a little sour, continue to live frugally.

Not for everyone.
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?
Replies: 30
Views: 4619

Re: How are retirees from 2000 doing today ?

Did your fire simulations come out even close to reality ? I think it's tricky applying today's common knowledge and methods to past time periods. I first used email around 1990, first used web in mid 1990s. But before I retired in 2000, I had not yet spent much time with general financial or retirement forums. Most of the ones I noticed didn't seem worthwhile. My altavista-fu failed me. I had never heard of William Bengen, Trinity, or the 4% rule. I had read several books, but all from a value investing perspective, except for Bogle's first book which I rejected. Today it's much easier to have broad knowledge of the basics. I didn't have much of a FIRE simulation. With a very high risk portfolio, I hoped for a high return. I don't remembe...
by lazyday
Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What was your dumbest financial decision?
Replies: 173
Views: 25550

Re: What was your dumbest financial decision?

I've probably made worse decisions than this, but the one that comes to mind:
Using margin without fully understanding the risks. With more knowledge of market history and volatility, I wouldn't have done it. It worked out fine for me, but didn't have to. Could have set my accumulation back quite a bit with a big enough global market crash, even if there was a full market recovery.