Search found 982 matches

by madsinger
Wed Mar 01, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2940

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Strong month for stocks. Positive month for everything in the charts except Vanguard Precious Metals, down over -4%. Gold itself rose for the month.

The madsinger Permanent portfolio performed well, and so for this year (two months...) each of the four asset classes have risen each month. That isn't really expected in a PP, but I'll take it!

Code: Select all

         STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH    GOLD  PORTFOLIO 
January  1.85%    0.65%     0.08%   5.32%   1.93%
February 3.92%    1.57%     0.08%   3.17%   2.16%
               
YTD      5.85%    2.24%     0.16%   8.66%   4.13%
by madsinger
Wed Mar 01, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2940

madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 2...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 2068

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2017)

Pretty much a positive month all around for the portfolios. Bonds, US stocks up. Int'l stocks up smartly (in the 4% to 5% range). Gold had a strong month (up over 5%). The permanent portfolio gained in all four classes (see below). A nice investing start to 2017.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

         STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH     GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  1.85%    0.65%     0.08%    5.32%    1.93%
by madsinger
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 2068

madsinger monthly report (January 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VI...
by madsinger
Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 3665

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Newsletter returns are now entered into the chart.

The "number 1 performing portfolio" in the past 10 years, by the slimmest of margins: Wellington at 6.89% annualized return. Makes me wonder why I'm even trying to do anything different than that!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

livesoft wrote:It is fun to root for SCV to drop after one has sold it, isn't it?
well...I still hold quite a chunk of small cap value, so I can't really say that I'm rooting for it to drop!

But, it was up almost 25% last year, so it was the most "over" stock fund I had for rebalancing.
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 3665

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

2016 had a wide spray of returns, even within the year itself. US stocks, measured by Total Stock Market index fund, returned about +12.5%. Large caps (S&P 500) returned about 12%, and small cap value returned almost 25% (the number one performing Vanguard investor class stock fund this year). International stocks ran from slightly negative -0.8% in Europe, to slight positive 5.2% Pacific fund, to double digits +11.5% in Emerging Markets. REITs ended about 8%, and Precious Metals, while up over 50% for the year, dropped 25% in the last five months of the year after being up over 98% in July. My Permanent Portfolio finished the year with a 5.81% return. Bonds and Gold, while being rather high flyers though July, dropped the last five mon...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 3665

madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% V...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

update on rebalance switch from last month. Of course, three weeks is not a good time frame to measure investment performance, but I thought it was interesting that after my rebalance on December 9 from Small Cap Value to Long Term Treasury, from that point to the end of the year (yes, I know, three weeks...) Small Cap Value: -1.81% Long Term Treasury: +0.41% I'll admit that it "felt wrong" to be selling stocks and buying long bonds on that day, and I do understand that in the long run, I expect my stocks to outperform my bonds, but I am glad that the very short term result did not make me feel like a fool right off the bat. Hopefully, this kind of experience will give me the courage to rebalance in the future, even if it "fe...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

...I should clarify. The real "trigger" for rebalancing is that my stocks got over 55% of my portfolio, more than 5% over the 50% target, and that is what triggered the wholesale rebalance. If my US stocks were up that much, something was down, and that was bonds, gold, and REITs.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

Brad: you are now buying Long Bonds in a probably rising interest rate environment ? Did I read that correctly? investor Yes, you read that correctly. This is most certainly not a guess on where I think Long Bonds will be in the near or far future. This is, in fact, the very opposite of guessing where rates will be! I have chosen an asset allocation that is 11.11% Long Bonds. As of yesterday, the per cent of my portfolio in long bonds had dropped below 8.5%, about 24% under the target. So, I rebalanced, and brought it back up to target (along with gold, and REITs). US stocks have outpaced these other asset classes by something like 20% in the past six weeks, so I moved according to plan. One of the reasons I posted this here was to "t...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

Today I rebalanced...a tough one from a "gut check" point of view.

Long bonds were down over 22% from their target value, and Gold (IAU) was down over 16% from its target, REITs down about 10% from target, while US stocks were a fat chunk over. Buying a wad of long bonds and gold today was a test of my belief in the system. I don't know if this will be a nice "sell high, buy low" moment, but I do know that my exposure to the US stock market today is back in line with my pre-determined allocation plan.

(holding nose and jumping in...)

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

A pretty quiet month. Nothing really to report here... OR MAYBE NOT!!! Yes, November was quite a month for the markets. US stock markets up 3% to 6% for large caps, and as high as 10% for small cap value. Bonds were down in the -2% to -3% range. International stocks down in the -1% to -2% for developed markets, down over -4% for emerging markets. The precious metals fund was down almost -10% for the month, but still up 50% for the year. The components of the permanent portfolio were certainly showing low correlation. Long bonds and Gold were down about -8% for the month, while the stock (an S&P 500 fund) was up about 3.6%. This month was the largest monthly loss for the PP this year (even as stocks were soaring). Vive la difference! -Br...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2016)
Replies: 17
Views: 3838

madsinger monthly report (November 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIN...
by madsinger
Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 1294

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2016)

Not a lot of places to hide in October. US and International large caps down -1% to -2%. Small caps down -3% to -4%. Bonds lost a -0.1%. REITs were down over -5%, precious metals down over -6%. Of all of the funds I track, only the Emerging Markets fund was up, +0.6%. Madsinger permanent portfolio: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -4.97% 5.24% 0.09% 5.38% 1.25% February -0.18% 3.20% 0.08% 11.22% 3.47% March 6.72% 0.06% 0.09% -0.92% 1.45% April 0.37% -0.62% 0.09% 5.05% 1.27% May 1.75% 0.77% 0.10% -6.09% -0.97% June 0.22% 6.50% 0.08% 8.87% 3.83% July 3.65% 2.02% 0.09% 2.04% 1.98% August 0.08% -0.99% 0.09% -3.23% -1.02% September -0.02% -1.31% 0.08% 0.71% -0.11% October -1.84% -4.22% 0.09% -2.92% -2.17% YTD 5.49% 11.40% 0.90% 20.43%...
by madsinger
Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 1294

madsinger monthly report (October 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX...
by madsinger
Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2016)
Replies: 9
Views: 2420

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2016)

Better late than never? This was a busy week for me, sorry for the delay in posting. Not too many swings this month. US stocks mostly flat, between -0.5% and +0.5% returns. Bonds a little lower. Internationals had a better month, up between +1.5% to 2.5%. A little more swing in the sectors, Precious metals up +5.7%, REITs down -1.8%. The permanent portfolio was about flat...US stocks and cash basically flat, long bonds down -1.3% and gold up +0.7%. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -4.97% 5.24% 0.09% 5.38% 1.25% February -0.18% 3.20% 0.08% 11.22% 3.47% March 6.72% 0.06% 0.09% -0.92% 1.45% April 0.37% -0.62% 0.09% 5.05% 1.27% May 1.75% 0.77% 0.10% -6.09% -0.97% June 0.22% 6.50% 0.08% 8.87% 3.83% July 3.65% 2.02% 0.09% 2.04% 1.98% A...
by madsinger
Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2016)
Replies: 9
Views: 2420

madsinger monthly report (September 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, ...
by madsinger
Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Does anyone know where Madsinger is with his monthly report?
Replies: 4
Views: 3361

Re: Does anyone know where Madsinger is with his monthly report?

This is a very busy week for me...so I'm running a bit behind. I hope to post the report soon!

Thanks,
Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 1967

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2016)

investor wrote:Thanks Brad,
just PM'ed you the August returns.

Wellington and Wellesley look fine, as always.

investor
Thanks, investor. The chart has been updated.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 1967

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2016)

By the end, a rather tame summer month. Stocks up 0-1%, bonds down a little. Gold fell a little over -3%, and the VGPMX fund fell -14% (but still up over 70% for the year). REITs fell about -3.5%. The permanent portfolio had its worst month of the year (with both long bonds and gold dropping), but that is still only -1%. So far, it's been a rather tame positive year, but we still have four months to go! -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -4.97% 5.24% 0.09% 5.38% 1.25% February -0.18% 3.20% 0.08% 11.22% 3.47% March 6.72% 0.06% 0.09% -0.92% 1.45% April 0.37% -0.62% 0.09% 5.05% 1.27% May 1.75% 0.77% 0.10% -6.09% -0.97% June 0.22% 6.50% 0.08% 8.87% 3.83% July 3.65% 2.02% 0.09% 2.04% 1.98% August 0.08% -0.99% 0.09% -3.23% -1.02% ...
by madsinger
Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2016)
Replies: 3
Views: 1967

madsinger monthly report (August 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25%...
by madsinger
Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 3275

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

updated with Newsletter returns for July.
by madsinger
Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 3275

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Portfolios up in July. Stock funds up in the 3% to 5% range. Bonds up 0.5% to 1.0%. Vanguard's precious metals and mining fund up another 11% to reach a year to date return of 98%. All three non-cash components of the permanent portfolio had a good month...3.65% for S&P 500 and 2% for long bonds and gold. Did a little rebalance today, selling some US stock for the cash position in my PP: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -4.97% 5.24% 0.09% 5.38% 1.25% February -0.18% 3.20% 0.08% 11.22% 3.47% March 6.72% 0.06% 0.09% -0.92% 1.45% April 0.37% -0.62% 0.09% 5.05% 1.27% May 1.75% 0.77% 0.10% -6.09% -0.97% June 0.22% 6.50% 0.08% 8.87% 3.83% July 3.65% 2.02% 0.09% 2.04% 1.98% YTD 7.39% 18.72% 0.63% 27.27% 12.88%
by madsinger
Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)
Replies: 13
Views: 3275

madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% V...
by madsinger
Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2441

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

updated chart with Newsletter returns included.
by madsinger
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2441

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

jay22 wrote:Madslinger, any particular reason why you use long bonds instead of intermediate/short ones?
For the "permanent portfolio" portion of my investments, I'm following the ideas laid out originally by Harry Browne and more recently written about by Craig Rowland in the book: "The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy". The idea is to have four asset classes that have very low correlation between them and that react differently to different market conditions. The basic idea is stocks, long bonds, cash, and gold.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2441

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Roller coaster month! By the end of the month, the return numbers seem relatively normal, but it was quite a ride during the month. US stocks in the 0% to 1% range for the month. Internationals range from -4.4% in Europe Fund to +5.0% in Emerging Markets with the Vanguard Total International coming in down -1% for the month. Total Bond up 1.9%. Some of the fringes did very well this month...Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining up +17% for the month, and up over 77% YTD! REITs strong again, up +6.9% for the month, and +13.4% YTD. Gold (as measured by my the IAU ETF) was up +8.9% for the month and +24.7% YTD. Long Bonds (as measured by Vangaurd's VUSUX fund) up +6.5% for the month and over 15% for the year. The madsinger permanent portfolio ha...
by madsinger
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2441

madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% V...
by madsinger
Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: compare Balanced to Total Stock & Total Bond
Replies: 8
Views: 1304

Re: compare Balanced to Total Stock & Total Bond

Your total return numbers for these funds are not correct. You may use a tool like Morningstar to get total returns for these funds:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... ture=en-US

I used this tool to find the total returns for the funds you listed from 6/1/2006 through 6/1/2016:

VBAIX: $19,468.24 (6.89% annualized return)
VWENX: $20,501.64 (7.44% annualized return)
VTSAX: $20,722.27 (7.56% annualized return)
VBLTX: $16,185.94 (4.93% annualized return)

I did not go through the exercise of computing a 60/40 rebalanced return for total stock/total bond, but I would guess it would be very near to the balanced return.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Sat Jun 04, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Cricket Wireless down for lots of people?
Replies: 21
Views: 5374

Re: Is Cricket Wireless down for lots of people?

Late to the party here...but I was down from about 7pm last night until after midnight (Boston area). When I got up this morning, I had service.

I felt a little silly because I just convinced someone this week to switch to Cricket! d'oh!

Been using it over a year and have had zero problems....until last night!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2659

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

The chart has been completed with portfolio returns for May.

Mel, I will consider adding the midcap index to the "all stocks" portion of the chart. I have not wanted to arbitrarily add things that have recently come into fashion...but I believe you've been asking for midcaps in the chart for over 10 years!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2659

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Sure would like to see "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps" added to these regular monthly reports, Brad. Any chance of that happening? For you, Mel? Okay! I used the "investor" share values (VIMSX) because that is the class I use for all portfolios here. Comparing the Midcap index fund with the S&P 500 fund, the past five years have favored the larger cap fund (12.11% to 11.16%) while the five years before that favored the Midcaps (4.20% to 2.20%). The real stunning outperformance of the midcaps occurred during the 2000-2005 run. These six years, the midcap fund returned 10.75%, while the S&P 500 lost -1.23% per year (total return 84.55% vs -7.13%). -Brad. CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR May YTD since since since since 2016 2016 2013 ...
by madsinger
Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2659

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

US stocks up 1% to 2% for the month. Internationals down a little. Bonds were flat. Gold dropped -6%, and the precious metals fund fell over -10%.

Permanent portfolio was dragged down a bit by gold, but YTD this has been a net positive.

Code: Select all

          STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  -4.97%    5.24%    0.09%   5.38%    1.25%
February -0.18%    3.20%    0.08%  11.22%    3.47%
March     6.72%    0.06%    0.09%  -0.92%    1.45%
April     0.37%   -0.62%    0.09%   5.05%    1.27%
May       1.75%    0.77%    0.10%  -6.09%   -0.97%
               
YTD       3.39%    9.41%    0.45%  14.57%    6.63%
by madsinger
Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 2659

madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VI...
by madsinger
Mon May 02, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2016)
Replies: 2
Views: 1093

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2016)

April bounced around but ended mostly positive for the portfolios. The "blowout number" to look at the Precious Metals and Mining fund...up almost 30% for the month and almost 70% year-to-date. Of course, this fund has been down a lot the last few years, so it's all kind of RTM. The "Sheltered Sam" portfolio has a 3% (year beginning) allocation to this fund, and as such, this 3% holding has added over 2 percentage points of return to that portfolio for the first four months of the year. Gold itself, is up over 20% in the first four months, and has helped the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio quite a bit (as seen below). -Brad. madsinger Permanent Portfolio returns: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLI...
by madsinger
Mon May 02, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2016)
Replies: 2
Views: 1093

madsinger monthly report (April 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% ...
by madsinger
Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody use a Motorola Moto X smartphone?
Replies: 17
Views: 2509

Re: Anybody use a Motorola Moto X smartphone?

I use Moto X (2nd generation) with Cricket (just like pochax, I think). Very happy with it. Fingerprint sensor not a big deal for me. It's easy for me to plug in at work, so battery life has not been an issue...but could be if I wasn't able to plug in, I suppose. 16Gb seems fine for me, but I don't have many apps on my phone, so I may not be the typical user. I like the hands free driving feature...it reads texts to me, and lets me reply while having my phone in my pocket the whole time.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Sun Apr 03, 2016 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)
Replies: 11
Views: 2795

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)

Jaxfann wrote:Which one is the 40% stock / 60% bond investment?
The 40/60 portfolios are represented by:

Wellesley Income Fund, the Life Strategy Conservative Growth Fund and the "Newsletter Income" portfolio (although I've been told that the Newsletter Income fund typically has a higher stock percentage than 40%).

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Apr 01, 2016 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)
Replies: 11
Views: 2795

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)

The newsletter website has a couple of inconsistencies in the numbers. I am guessing that the Newsletter Growth Index portfolio is +2.0% YTD, not -2.0%, and the Income portfolio is +0.9% YTD not -0.9%. Is there anyone out there that can confirm this? This is how I have entered the numbers on the chart. If I learn that this is incorrect, I will update the chart.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)
Replies: 11
Views: 2795

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)

madsinger permanent portfolio returns:

Code: Select all

          STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH     GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  -4.97%    5.24%     0.09%    5.38%   1.25%
February -0.18%    3.20%     0.08%   11.22%   3.47%
March     6.72%    0.06%     0.09%   -0.92%   1.45%
               
YTD       1.23%    9.03%     0.26%   16.13%   6.28%
by madsinger
Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2016)
Replies: 11
Views: 2795

madsinger monthly report (March 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% ...
by madsinger
Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2016)
Replies: 5
Views: 1625

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2016)

February, while volatile, ended rather tamely. Most portfolios within a percentage point of flat. A couple of wild outliers: Vanguard precious metals and mining fund up over 23% for the month! Gold itself up over 11% for the month. Long bonds up over 3% for the month, on top of a 5% gain in January brings them up almost 9% for the first two months of the year. Not surprisingly, the permanent portfolio looks very good in the first two months of the year, with gold and long bonds posting truly outsized returns. -Brad. madsinger permanent portfolio: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -4.97% 5.24% 0.09% 5.38% 1.25% February -0.18% 3.20% 0.08% 11.22% 3.47% YTD -5.15% 8.69% 0.17% 17.20% 4.75%
by madsinger
Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2016)
Replies: 5
Views: 1625

madsinger monthly report (February 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 2...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 7
Views: 2382

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Hit a rebalancing band yesterday. Sold some Long Bond mutual fund (up +8.85% YTD) and bought Total International Fund (down -10.52% YTD). While my "gut" thinks selling long bonds feels right (these rates are "sure" to rise, right?), buying the international stock fund (can only keep going down, right?) "felt" like the wrong thing to do. However, rebalancing when I hit the rebalancing band is not a "gut" or "feel" method, but rather a rationally determined approach that I am comfortable with...more comfortable than following my "gut"!

(now, I hope "buy low" doesn't give me the regret of "I should have waited...")

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 7
Views: 2382

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Chart has been updated with Newsletter returns. Others have pointed out over the past few years that the newsletter's portfolios are more stock heavy than the others in the chart. I have resisted moving them from their "growth", "moderate growth", "conservative growth" sections, as these are flexible portfolios, and may move their allocations around. This month shows that they are probably more into stocks than their others. I find it interesting that Wellington, Wellesley, and the Newsletter Growth portfolio have virtually identical returns over the past 10 years and 1 month. My madsinger portfolio looks rather sickly compared with these other portfolios. For most of these years, the bond portion of my portfol...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 7
Views: 2382

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

investor wrote:Thanks Brad.
here is your missing newsletter information
January and YTD
Growth (6.5)%
Cons Gtrowth (5.8)%
Income Model (3.4)%
Growth Idx (5.0)


investor
Thank you investor! I will update my charts in the morning (after a few hours of sleep)!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 7
Views: 2382

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

No surprises here, assuming you have heard anything about the stock market in the past month. Stock funds lost in the range of -5% to -7% for the month of January. REITs a little less bad at -3.36%, precious metals fund down -2.2%. Bonds were up for the month, Total Bond fund up 1.43%. The permanent portfolio portion of the madsinger portfolio zagged while the market zigged. The long bond fund (+5.24%) and Gold (+5.38%) more than offset the losses in stocks (down -4.97%). Cash did its thing. The cautionary part for the permanent portfolio crowd is this is just about exactly what last January looked like (gold and long bonds up really big), and they suffered the rest of the year. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -4.97% 5.24% 0.09%...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)
Replies: 7
Views: 2382

madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VI...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to figure out when to switch funds??
Replies: 4
Views: 601

Re: How to figure out when to switch funds??

I assume that all of the dividends, short term gains and long term gains that you posted above were "already distributed" during the 2015 calendar year. You will pay taxes on these gains with your 2015 tax return. (also, the reason you may not "have access" to tax information, is because Fidelity probably has not issued "formal" tax forms yet...it is only January 5!) What you want to find out is your "cost basis" for each of these funds. This is the total cost you have paid to own the shares you have (initial purchase, any loads, reinvestments, subsequent purchases, etc.). This cost basis is used to find out how much tax you owe when you sell the fund. You should be able to find your cost basis on the...