Search found 20996 matches

by HomerJ
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 109051

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Will do good wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:54 pm No change to Investment.
Life, yes.

When things are back to "normal" we will not put off living to tomorrow, will see more families & friends, eat out more, travel even more than 3x-4x a year, do whatever we want (within reason) which we can afford, life is short.
If most people feel that way, that's predicts a huge rebound, eh?
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 109051

Re: Has Covid-19 changed you?

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:57 pmLife wise, it has really helped me focus on what is important to me and the direction I want to go in the future. I am looking forward to when we are on the other side of this and changing a few things around.
If you don't mind me asking, what changes do you want to make?
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 109051

Re: Has Covid-19 changed you?

Not yet...

I'm just waiting for things to go back to normal.

(But I recognize that things probably won't go back to normal)

But it will take 3-6 months of this before it really sinks in for me. (Unless someone I know dies, then I guess it will sink in immediately).

I'm still hopeful it won't last 3-6 more months.

I'm guessing I won't jump right back on a plane or a cruise, but at this point, I still expect those are still in my future. I still see ourselves taking that European river cruise when my wife turns 60.
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Factor Investing Increases Behavioral Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 4373

Re: Why Factor Investing Increases Behavioral Risk

I am not suggesting to avoid small-value or any other factor tilt. I am saying if you go down this path, it must be a life-long investment strategy. You need to embrace it, attach to it, and in a sense, marry it. Seems to me that one who has bought into the SCV theories may be less likely to do bad behavioral things. It seems to me that they are more likely to have put some deep thought into their reasons for it. I'd suggest those that have put some deep thought into their decision making would be less likely to do bad behavioral things. On the other hand, it seems that one who invests more in stocks than bonds may be more likely to do bad behavioral things. After all, how much deep thought does one put into the fact that stocks will outpe...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:17 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Folks, Latest New York State's numbers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEJYTTktOwo 14:27 3/24/2020 25,665 cases 3,234 hospitalized 756 ICU beds 3/25/2020 30,811 cases,3,805 Hospitalized, 888 ICU patients 3/26/2020 37,358 cases, 5,327 Hospitalized, 1,290 ICU patients, 1,517 patients discharged. 3/27/2020 44,635 cases, 6,481 Hospitalized, 1,583 ICU Patients, 2,045 patients discharged. 3/28/2020 52,318 cases, 7,328 Hospitalized, 1,755 ICU Patients, 2,726 patients discharged, 725 Deaths 3/29/2020 59,513 cases, 8,503 Hospitalized, 2,037 ICU Patients, 3,572 patients discharged, 965 Deaths 3/30/2020 66,497 cases, 9,517 Hospitalized, 2,352 ICU Patients, 4,204 patients discharged, 1,218 Deaths 3/31/2020 75,795 cases, 10,929 Hospitalized, 2,710 ICU...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Folks, Latest New York State's numbers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEJYTTktOwo 14:27 3/24/2020 25,665 cases 3,234 hospitalized 756 ICU beds 3/25/2020 30,811 cases,3,805 Hospitalized, 888 ICU patients 3/26/2020 37,358 cases, 5,327 Hospitalized, 1,290 ICU patients, 1,517 patients discharged. 3/27/2020 44,635 cases, 6,481 Hospitalized, 1,583 ICU Patients, 2,045 patients discharged. 3/28/2020 52,318 cases, 7,328 Hospitalized, 1,755 ICU Patients, 2,726 patients discharged, 725 Deaths 3/29/2020 59,513 cases, 8,503 Hospitalized, 2,037 ICU Patients, 3,572 patients discharged, 965 Deaths 3/30/2020 66,497 cases, 9,517 Hospitalized, 2,352 ICU Patients, 4,204 patients discharged, 1,218 Deaths 3/31/2020 75,795 cases, 10,929 Hospitalized, 2,710 ICU...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Replies: 103
Views: 8738

Re: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:11 pm Bonds.
Ding Ding Ding!

Worked for me too... And a paid-off-house, so base expenses are low.

45/55... Got enough in bonds to last 10+ years... And that's if I lost my job... which I haven't yet.

So I don't have to care about short-term stock movements.
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?
Replies: 136
Views: 14115

Re: Do you want to own the whole haystack when someone has a blowtorch?

The Broz wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:42 pm There are always winners and losers in business. The idea of owning everything is so that you don't have to guess the winners, and just hope you are right. Owning everything means you are guaranteed to own the winners, and their value is theoretically infinite. Sure - you own losers too, but they can only go to zero.
Owning the full market is simply a bet on the success of American business over the long term. Nothing more - nothing less.
This. Good post.
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?
Replies: 136
Views: 14115

Re: Do you want to own the whole haystack when someone has a blowtorch?

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:23 pmLosers: Ford, GM, many more.
Why are GM and Ford going to be losers in the long-term?

Your "core" Boglehead beliefs are about long-term returns, right?
Why own a haystack (VTI) when someone has a blowtorch? Even Cramer says only a few will survive in many sectors.
First off, Cramer is not worth listening to.

Second, owning all the companies is still the right play, unless you know for sure which companies will survive and which won't.

Just like before.

But if you think you can pick the winners and losers, well, sure then yes, you should start picking individual stocks.

Good luck with that.
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397321

Re: Coronavirus and the market

SandysDad wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:32 am I almost find it comical that the market is basically shrugging off the now 10M jobs lost in the past two weeks
I find it strange too, but this "should be" temporary.

Maybe.

But that's probably what the average thought is. 10 million will go BACK TO WORK in a month or two, and we still get to keep the $2 trillion stimulus.

Plus there's talk of another trillion for infrastructure.

(A trillion here, a trillion there, and sooner or later, you're talking about some real money)
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 29679

Re: The end of cruise ships

ResearchMed wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:40 pm If you get infected in an elevator or hotel, no one is going to KEEP you there for days or even several weeks, and not allow you to get off, not even for necessary medical care... etc...
That is different.
And that is the part that freaks us.
Sure, I agree with you... That NEW twist on cruising is quite unnerving.

But most of these people thought cruising was just obese people rolling around in garbage and spitting into each other's food BEFORE this new development.

Which is just annoying.

Eating on a cruise ship is like eating at any restaurant.
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 29679

Re: The end of cruise ships

and not be in a floating petri dish Cruise ships really aren't floating petri dishes. They are just as clean as any hotel or restaurant. You can dislike cruise ships, but the petri dish comments are just silly. They are different from a hotel or restaurant in that the quarters are closer and the same people are eating from the same food source for an extended period of time. That's why you see norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships that affect most of the passengers but similar things in hotels are more rare. Also, if someone gets sick (like with COVID-19), that person has to stay there until the boat docks. The quarters are not closer than a typical hotel or restaurant. Do guys never go to a movie theater or a Broadway show, or a casino, or ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684957

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CULater wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:17 pm Well, that 400-point pop didn't last long did it? Back in the red.
Not sure what you're looking at, but the DOW was up 469 points today.
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age/AA during this crisis?
Replies: 138
Views: 9263

Re: What is your age/AA during this crisis?

Turkishcoffee wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:13 pm
dreamrrr wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:33 am age 65, single
aa before 65% stock/35% stable value
aa today 61% stock/39% stable value
plan to rebalance back to 65/35
been retired for 6 years, not drawing anything from my portfolio
Just curious, some would consider that an aggressive equity position (not judging), is there a pension if you don’t mind me asking?
If he's not drawing from his portfolio for 6 years, then it doesn't matter what he invests in.

He obviously has a pension or some other source of income.
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 29679

Re: The end of cruise ships

and not be in a floating petri dish Cruise ships really aren't floating petri dishes. They are just as clean as any hotel or restaurant. You can dislike cruise ships, but the petri dish comments are just silly. They are different from a hotel or restaurant in that the quarters are closer and the same people are eating from the same food source for an extended period of time. That's why you see norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships that affect most of the passengers but similar things in hotels are more rare. Also, if someone gets sick (like with COVID-19), that person has to stay there until the boat docks. The quarters are not closer than a typical hotel or restaurant. Do guys never go to a movie theater or a Broadway show, or a casino, or ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Folks, Latest New York State's number. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z4edb7fnfI 17:17 3/24/2020 25,665 cases 3,234 hospitalized 756 ICU beds 3/25/2020 30,811 cases,3,805 Hospitalized, 888 ICU patients 3/26/2020 37,358 cases, 5,327 Hospitalized, 1,290 ICU patients, 1,517 patients discharged. 3/27/2020 44,635 cases, 6,481 Hospitalized, 1,583 ICU Patients, 2,045 patients discharged. 3/28/2020 52,318 cases, 7,328 Hospitalized, 1,755 ICU Patients, 2,726 patients discharged, 725 Deaths 3/29/2020 59,513 cases, 8,503 Hospitalized, 2,037 ICU Patients, 3,572 patients discharged, 965 Deaths 3/30/2020 66,497 cases, 9,517 Hospitalized, 2,352 ICU Patients, 4,204 patients discharged, 1,218 Deaths 3/31/2020 75,795 cases, 10,929 Hospitalized, 2,710 ICU ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else just not care/worry?
Replies: 139
Views: 12330

Re: Does anyone else just not care/worry?

alpenglow wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:46 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:55 pm
heyyou wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:09 pm Perhaps jaded from previous market drops and recoveries, but this decline does not seem to stir any emotion for me. At 70, and retired for 15 years, I've seen enough that I'm comfortable with a decade (or more) of portfolio withdrawals stored in bond index funds, regardless of what level, stock index prices are.

Is anyone else unperturbed these days?
I don't care at all... It's amazing... 45/55 Asset Allocation makes it easy.

My wife cares though... so it's not totally stress-free... (But's she MUCH better this time than 2008)
Approximate age at 45/55?
I'm 51, wife is 59, average age 55, so we are age-in-bonds. Wife is retired, I have 4 years to go at least (maybe longer depending on how this recession plays out)
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else just not care/worry?
Replies: 139
Views: 12330

Re: Does anyone else just not care/worry?

Perhaps jaded from previous market drops and recoveries, but this decline does not seem to stir any emotion for me. At 70, and retired for 15 years, I've seen enough that I'm comfortable with a decade (or more) of portfolio withdrawals stored in bond index funds, regardless of what level, stock index prices are. Is anyone else unperturbed these days? From strictly an investing standpoint (nobody wanted a pandemic, right?)... I doubt most of the experienced investors on here are worried at all, because of the extremely powerful conditioning of 2000 and 2008. The rhythm of those events is ingrained in all of us (in ways that are nearly impossible to truly account for). There is what, a 40-50% decline and a V-shaped recovery. The weak hands g...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 29679

Re: The end of cruise ships

Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:58 amand not be in a floating petri dish
Cruise ships really aren't floating petri dishes. They are just as clean as any hotel or restaurant.

You can dislike cruise ships, but the petri dish comments are just silly.
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
Replies: 122
Views: 9705

Re: Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?

My portfolio everyday when logging into vanguard is just red and red. Seems depressing just looking at it. How are you guys coping (for people who lost money) in the market now? The long-term nominal annual 9%-10% return of the stock market INCLUDES all the crashes. You didn't have to avoid the crashes in the past to become wealthy. Your portfolio goes down, and then it goes up again. It's just temporary (although, I can't lie, there's at least a 1% chance that it might not go up again - the past may not mirror the future). Sorry, I'm sure my disclaimer didn't help. I am 45/55 stocks/bonds... I'm quite certain (although not 100% certain) that the stock side will come back someday and grow to new heights... and it will do it so fast that it...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else just not care/worry?
Replies: 139
Views: 12330

Re: Does anyone else just not care/worry?

heyyou wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:09 pm Perhaps jaded from previous market drops and recoveries, but this decline does not seem to stir any emotion for me. At 70, and retired for 15 years, I've seen enough that I'm comfortable with a decade (or more) of portfolio withdrawals stored in bond index funds, regardless of what level, stock index prices are.

Is anyone else unperturbed these days?
I don't care at all... It's amazing... 45/55 Asset Allocation makes it easy.

My wife cares though... so it's not totally stress-free... (But's she MUCH better this time than 2008)
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684957

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

APX32 wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:50 pm“nothing but upside” for the markets.
I'm not aware of any veteran posters saying that on this site. Why do you keep quoting that phrase?
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying only top 10 S&P500 companies every year
Replies: 56
Views: 5529

Re: Buying only top 10 S&P500 companies every year

Here's a funny tidbit... When I first started investing in the mid 90s, as a novice investor, with no idea about index funds or Bogle, I bought the Dogs of the Dow book, and tried to use it. It's a very good example of a model that back-tests well, then fails to perform going forward. It backtested great from the 1920s to 1991 (when the book was written). After that, during the 1990s, it underperformed, and I gave up on it. Maybe because people knew about it? Seems like an awful lot of patterns are discovered in the stock market via backtesting, but as soon as they are discovered, they stop working. Looking at the wikipedia, it says this about the strategy. The Dogs of the Dow is an investment strategy popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $100,000 IRA withdrawal without penalty
Replies: 15
Views: 1816

Re: $100,000 IRA withdrawal without penalty

livesoft wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:26 pm Why don't they enact a law to do the reverse: Add $100,000 without penalty to your Roth IRA?
Because rich people like you and me don't need any help.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying only top 10 S&P500 companies every year
Replies: 56
Views: 5529

Re: Buying only top 10 S&P500 companies every year

Poorman wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:26 amWhat if... you bought 10% each of the top 10 holdings of the S&P 500 every December, sold whatever fell from the top 10 list. What would the performance be? I started looking into this but don't have access to the tools to get this done. It would also take some time to figure out...
Sounds like a recipe for failure.

You are only going to buy stocks AFTER they have risen high enough to make the top 10, and then you are going to sell them AFTER they have fallen enough to drop out.

Edit: I agree with Moto above. You are designing a system that buys high and sells low.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-month moving average crossover has worked to time stocks
Replies: 7
Views: 933

Re: 10-month moving average crossover has worked to time stocks

Using VWESX (Long-term corporate bond fund) going forward is a TERRIBLE idea. There is no way it's going to have the same returns going forward as it did from 1985-2020.

That is blind back-testing at its worst. Those results are almost guaranteed to not repeat.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age/AA during this crisis?
Replies: 138
Views: 9263

Re: What is your age/AA during this crisis?

Age-in-bonds here.

I'm 51, wife is 59, Average age of 55. At least 4 years from retirement (still got one last kid to get through college)

We had a 50/50 allocation from around 2012 until 2019. Late 2019, we changed to 45/55 as we were getting closer to retirement.

No changes during this crisis.

55% in bonds/cash has served us very well. We're in great shape to weather this storm. I sleep well at night.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25811

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

JonnyDVM wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:10 am Since the coming pain is all projections that are constantly changing it’s impossible for it to accurately be priced in. Everyone is guessing.
This. It really is just this.

The projections of pain is constantly changing.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25811

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The S&P 500 is currently at early-2019 levels. That doesn't seem that disastrous, for one of the biggest crises in U.S. history. So is the coming pain really priced in at current levels? The coming pain will be: even more massive debts than before, small businesses defaulting on loans and shutting down, reduced consumer spending, etc. Is the market lagging behind the coming "reality"? Look, it's not that hard of a concept. The market has certainly already priced in a certain amount of pain. If the actual pain, or even future predictions of pain, is worse than that, then the market will go down. If the actual pain, or future predictions of pain, are better than that, then the market will go up. What makes it hard, is we don't ...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction
Replies: 49
Views: 4254

Re: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction

April is going to be a bloodbath. and how did you come to this conclusion ? Let’s see, in April almost every company is going to miss earnings Everyone already knows that Unemployment will continue to deteriorate. Everyone already knows that The virus still has not peaked and a great deal of uncertainty remains. This is the big unknown.. It actually has peaked in several countries, so people think there may be an end in sight. but they might be wrong. Still quite a bit of uncertainty I agree. There’s already talk of a 4th bailout package because they know the one that was just signed will not be enough. That's a POSITIVE push to the market. There’s this belief amongst some folks that all of that has been priced in and Uncle Fed is going to...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?
Replies: 39
Views: 4989

Re: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?

I understand the point of not timing the market.However, to say that it does not matter ten years from now what price you paid,like is CONSTANTLY being said here, is a feel good rationalization for your beliefs. I believe I would be much happier in ten years if I bought 200,000 with the Dow at 19,000 a short time ago vs. buying at 29,000 also a short time ago. Please quit saying that it does not matter. The math says otherwise. There are situations where it does matter. Is the market going to revisit its lows? No idea. Is it straight back up from here? No idea. Will anyone who was FORTUNATE to buy a large sum a week ago be much better off in ten years than someone who bought the same amount at Dow 29,000 plus a short while ago? It does mat...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?
Replies: 39
Views: 4989

Re: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?

I understand the point of not timing the market.However, to say that it does not matter ten years from now what price you paid,like is CONSTANTLY being said here, is a feel good rationalization for your beliefs. I believe I would be much happier in ten years if I bought 200,000 with the Dow at 19,000 a short time ago vs. buying at 29,000 also a short time ago. Please quit saying that it does not matter. The math says otherwise. There are situations where it does matter. Is the market going to revisit its lows? No idea. Is it straight back up from here? No idea. Will anyone who was FORTUNATE to buy a large sum a week ago be much better off in ten years than someone who bought the same amount at Dow 29,000 plus a short while ago? It does mat...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market up today?
Replies: 25
Views: 2777

Re: Why is the market up today?

t00sl0w wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:28 pm the market is so disconnected from reality its insane.

Everyone I know is suffering from either already being laid off/furloughed or is heading that way and at this point we have no end in sight in this country.
There is an end in sight.
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market up today?
Replies: 25
Views: 2777

Re: Why is the market up today?

Meaty wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:30 pm I can’t figure it out. An extra month of social distancing guidelines, the FED predicting 30+% unemployment, cases still increasing, etc and the equity market is up.

Was all of this horrendous news really baked in?
Yes.

Did the FED predict 30%+ unemployment today? Was that new information today?

Or was leaked a while ago, and now the market has it baked in? People sold on that news a while back.
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction
Replies: 49
Views: 4254

Re: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction

ChangedInvestor2019 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:31 amThe rally lacks conviction.
No idea how anyone thinks they know this.

Could be right, could be wrong. We won't know until after the fact.

It's not something you can determine real-time. Oh, those people buying stocks? They are timid when they do so. I can somehow tell from here.

FYI, I haven't bought or sold a thing this whole time.

I love the fact that I don't have to care if a "rally lacks conviction".

I think it's possible the market drops again, and possible it rises from here, and possible it stays in a holding pattern for a while.

"Buy and hold" long-term on the stock side of my portfolio means I don't care.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 5022

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

HanSolo wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:39 pm
Glockenspiel wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:18 pm I hope I’m not working remotely while also taking care of 2 young kids at the same time, while I’m retired!
Be careful what you wish for. Later on, if you're retired and isolated, you might wish you had some of those kinds of things going on.
You've isolated yourself. If you wish you had some of those kinds of things going on, make changes in your life.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139678

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:30 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:14 pm more upsides are coming because of FOMO money.
Sadly the FOMOs are the same people who sold because of fear. We have nothing to fear but fear its self. This is why most should not pay attention to daily or even quarterly moves in the market.
So why do keep you posting your daily moves? Usually, just the good ones, the ones that make you money (although occasionally, you own up to a loss now and then).

Do you realize you are contributing to the problem?
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Okay that's it...

They locked the freaking pickle ball courts.

We only play with our adult daughter and her boyfriend (who are currently living with us), so no chance of infection (we don't touch the gate with our hands to get in).

So no pickleball for at least a month :( :( :(

I just started playing, and I really like it.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:03 pm Add Arizona to the lock down list effective Tuesday 5 pm.
All of Kansas at 12:01 am Tuesday...

(But Kansas City has already been locked down for a week or so)
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

It just seems ludicrous to me that people here can say the USA is operating under a strict quarantine regime, when in fact that's just not the case. Social distancing (or whatever you want to call it) seems to be non-existent in many parts of the USA. In other parts it's very much "quarantine lite". Europe is definitely taking a very different approach, at least in most countries here. To give one example: I need to send an sms to get approval to go anywhere in my car. The sms includes the reason for my trip (there are codes, e.g. "2" for supermarket), my ID number, and my zip code. The approval is typically automatic, but limited in time. There are random police stops everywhere, and you need to show this approval when...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 11082

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:14 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:58 am I do think they should literally drop some out of literal helicopters. The opportunity may not come again.
Yep. Les Nessman with the live on-the-scene coverage.
Heh, now you are dating yourself...

"I swear I thought Turkeys could fly!"
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 11082

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

simpleidiot wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:47 am2,600 is higher than S&P during mid-January 2019, a time when we were not "looking forward" to crushing employment, manufacturing, GDP, etc declines.
Because $2 trillion dollars wasn't going to be given away free in January 2019 either.

Just accept that no one really understands the market.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 27602

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Just put the money into the market every month, buy and hold for the long-term and get rich slowly.

Quit thinking you can get rich quick.

"After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick"
-Homer J. Simpson
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 5022

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

nascar090210 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:02 pm Is this a preview of retirement life?
Not at all... obviously.

You think most retired people 6 months ago never went out to eat, never went to sporting events, never got together with friends, never went on planes, never went on cruises, never saw their grandkids, never took classes, never went to the gym, never went to the pool, never played tennis, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.????

Really?
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139678

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

keelerjr12 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:54 pm Lot of resentment towards market timers here. Why is that???
You might want to read some more threads and most definitely the wiki before asking that question.

That's like someone getting on a Ford message board, and a few posts in... "Hey, how come no one likes Chevy around here?"
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139678

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:33 am Can we merge this thread and the "free fall" one?
Heh, this is funny because it's true.

They are basically the same thread... :)

People like to talk about the daily gyrations of the market, either up or down.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304742

Re: POTUS just announced he'll be extending stay-at-home guidelines until April 30.

WoodSpinner wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:49 amArizona still has BLM land open for camping!
What's wrong with camping? Serious question.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684957

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CULater wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:55 amWhy is everybody getting a cramp about Goldman- Sachs? If you are buy and hold, what do you care anyway?
It's pretty simple.

We tell people to avoid financial porn, so we're not entertained when people post it on Bogleheads. :(
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139678

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Jim180 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:43 am The market up even though the shutdown was extended until April 30 and the announcement that there could be up to 200K deaths. The saying goes when the market goes up on bad news the worst is over for investors.
Because April 30th and 200,000 deaths (if true) are pretty good outcomes.

People have been talking about 18 month lock downs and 2.2 million deaths.

But the estimates could change again, of course.
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684957

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Goldman-Sachs: the pain isn't over yet. We've only had #1. More kitty bounces to come. https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/03/30/Photos/NS/MW-ID322_goldma_20200330083902_NS.jpg?uuid=6f465b12-7283-11ea-8ab2-9c8e992d421e Certainly not apples to apples comparison Great recession took something like 6 months to lose 20% Coronavirus took 16 trading days I think This is just guesswork Actually, that's not quite accurate.. It's funny how we humans like to match patterns, but we ALSO like to forget history. We like to say "This time is the worst ever!!" But see that huge drop between 1 and 2 on the chart? The market dropped 22% in 8 trading days; that's about as fast as it dropped this time. The difference was the 2008 crash start...