Search found 4211 matches

by am
Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

Tom_T wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:30 am Oops, bad math on my part re: Medicare, sorry! But you still have to pay for 14 years of health insurance. If your income will be part-time, then ACA will give you a pretty good subsidy if you have no other alternatives.

Sure, if you are going to keep some kind of income coming in to cover expenses, then you look like you're in good shape.
My part time income would be 6 figures (MD) and my partners is also 6 figures from business. NO subsidies.
by am
Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

Would you coast fire with this: Late 40s 21x expenses portfolio partners business covers > expenses but can’t count on it being around paid off house college funded to state school level My job is too much stress and hours but pays well and has 10 wks off. Would be hard pressed to find another one as close and that pays as well. Going part time is a non option at my current job. Have worry that next part time job will pay much less and not necessarily be better, less stressful, more rewarding, etc. Wait til either age 50, or 25X. From your friendly internet stranger ;) Isn’t 25x full retirement territory? It seems like at my level of portfolio of 21x, my monthly savings contribution is a drop in the bucket. I sometimes wonder what’s the po...
by am
Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

FIRWYW wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:39 pm As posted by WCI above, depends on how long you plan to coast. I found the below calculator helpful.

https://walletburst.com/tools/coast-fire-calc/
Too bad calculator can’t predict future inflation, growth and swr :D

Would be even better if could tell you your lifespan.
by am
Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

This came across my feed, surprise surprise. Some nuggets in here: https://www.personalcapital.com/blog/retirement-planning/10-lessons-after-retiring-early-10-years-ago/amp/ Snippet: Your Time Will Go By Quicker Than You Think The first year of a 90-year lifespan equals 1 / 90. The forty-sixth year of a 90-year lifespan equals 1 / 45. In other words, time really does accelerate the older you get. Each year you live becomes more valuable because you have less time. As a result, consider saving and investing aggressively while you can. Work hard while you still have the energy. This way, by the time you’re fed up with work, you will have more options to do what you want. The “sacrifices” you make today are no sacrifices at all if they buy yo...
by am
Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

Am, I’ll give you my perspective. And I know you’re stressing/not enjoying the day job too much. 1. 25X gives you an amount where even if you never worked again, there is a good *chance* you’ll be a ok. Stats and folks here show this. This is especially true when our calcs do not include SS. 2. 35x in my mind is the upper limit (again no SS considered). I would likely be wasting my time if I hit 50/early fifties and don’t retire/fun job if I want to. 3. It is important to put the icing on the cake, but then enjoy the cake. That is where this forum and this kind of discussion is key. 4. Psychologically, when I transition out of the high (medium?) paying job I want to never want to HAVE to work again! Otherwise any ‘fun’ part time job would ...
by am
Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

Would you coast fire with this: Late 40s 21x expenses portfolio partners business covers > expenses but can’t count on it being around paid off house college funded to state school level My job is too much stress and hours but pays well and has 10 wks off. Would be hard pressed to find another one as close and that pays as well. Going part time is a non option at my current job. Have worry that next part time job will pay much less and not necessarily be better, less stressful, more rewarding, etc. Wait til either age 50, or 25X. From your friendly internet stranger ;) Isn’t 25x full retirement territory? It seems like at my level of portfolio of 21x, my monthly savings contribution is a drop in the bucket. I sometimes wonder what’s the po...
by am
Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

Would you coast fire with this: Late 40s 21x expenses portfolio partners business covers > expenses but can’t count on it being around paid off house college funded to state school level My job is too much stress and hours but pays well and has 10 wks off. Would be hard pressed to find another one as close and that pays as well. Going part time is a non option at my current job. Have worry that next part time job will pay much less and not necessarily be better, less stressful, more rewarding, etc. Wait til either age 50, or 25X. From your friendly internet stranger ;) Isn’t 25x full retirement territory? It seems like at my level of portfolio of 21x, my monthly savings contribution is a drop in the bucket. I sometimes wonder what’s the po...
by am
Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?
Replies: 127
Views: 16119

Re: At What Multiple of X Would You Be Comfortable to Semi-Retire?

Would you coast fire with this:

Late 40s

21x expenses portfolio

partners business covers > expenses but can’t count on it being around

paid off house

college funded to state school level

My job is too much stress and hours but pays well and has 10 wks off. Would be hard pressed to find another one as close and that pays as well. Going part time is a non option at my current job.

Have worry that next part time job will pay much less and not necessarily be better, less stressful, more rewarding, etc.
by am
Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 5973
Views: 1008306

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

For cash management at Fidelity, can one withdraw cash from atms on weekends if money is sitting in the tax exempt muni fund and markets are closed? How about check writing?
by am
Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Muni money market funds question
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Muni money market funds question

welderwannabe wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:25 am If you open a cash management account at Fidelity, you can hold their money markets in there. It comes with a debit card and checkbook and is like a fully functional checking account. You can write checks, do ATM withdrawals, use the debit card and it will pull right from the muni mm.
Can you open the same fund twice in cash management to segregate money for different purposes? I do this in amex savings?
by am
Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Muni money market funds question
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Muni money market funds question

welderwannabe wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:25 am If you open a cash management account at Fidelity, you can hold their money markets in there. It comes with a debit card and checkbook and is like a fully functional checking account. You can write checks, do ATM withdrawals, use the debit card and it will pull right from the muni mm.
Seems like fidelity has multiple muni money markets. Not sure which one is best or what the current 7 day yields are as their site show 11/30 yields.
by am
Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Muni money market funds question
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Muni money market funds question

I am interested in placing some short term money into a municipal money market as I am in a high bracket. I am interested in the vanguard muni fund as it’s 7 day yield is 3.6%. I can buy this at vanguard or chase invest.

I do not want to buy vanguards muni fund at fidelity because of the 75 dollar fee. Fidelitys muni funds seem more expensive and lower yielding (although it’s tough to get the current yield as website lists 11/30 yield).

One advantage I see is that I believe fidelity muni funds would allow same day transfers to my checking for spending. The vanguard fund at chase or vanguard would be multiple days. Can someone tell me if this is correct? Also, which fund would you buy and where? Thanks.
by am
Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vang muni money market question.
Replies: 0
Views: 264

Vang muni money market question.

7 day sec yield now 3.27% (which at 35%-37% bracket is about 5% tax equivalent). Distribution yield for last month was 1.91%.

This seems like a no brainer for high bracket investors over high yield taxable savings like American Express. A few questions:

(1) when will the sec yield and distribution yield be close to one another? I assume December will be closer to distribution yield.

(2) I remember that the yield of this money market jumps around a lot. Thinking the sec yield for 7 days may be higher as we approach the end of a quarter and will then drop.
by am
Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni etf as diversifier?
Replies: 4
Views: 461

High yield muni etf as diversifier?

Does anyone use high yield muni etf such as van ecks to diversify their investment grade muni bonds? I am wondering if adding say 5-10% would be a good diversifier to say vteb or mub investment grade muni etfs?
by am
Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?
Replies: 73
Views: 9285

Re: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?

An interesting and thought provoking thread. Thank you, OP. For those who have more than enough, the planning around issues raised in this thread (like all planning) is easier. As some have pointed out, live your full life, do travel or whatever it is for you, when you are younger and healthy. And the health can change at any age, so live life always, don't wait. I will take that even more into account, having read the comments here, to not put off things I really want to do. For those who have enough but maybe not more than enough, I think it is a much more difficult calculus. Do you spend more earlier, to take full advantage of good health and not having some of the limitations of old age, at the risk (risk, not certainty) of having less...
by am
Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ultra short bond etf instead of money market?
Replies: 14
Views: 2543

Re: Vanguard ultra short bond etf instead of money market?

Rudedog wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:04 pm Buying T-bills.
How about if your constantly adding and spending from this money, like multiple times a month? Etf seems better.
by am
Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ultra short bond etf instead of money market?
Replies: 14
Views: 2543

Re: Vanguard ultra short bond etf instead of money market?

Would using a vanguard short term treasury etf be a good option?
by am
Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ultra short bond etf instead of money market?
Replies: 14
Views: 2543

Vanguard ultra short bond etf instead of money market?

I am considering placing some short term money in vanguard ultra short term bond etf (4.6% yield) instead of a high yield savings account at Amex (3%). Is anyone else placing short term money in anything else other then money market and high yield savings? I can tolerate a 1-2% loss at most on this money.
by am
Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shall I dump chase sapphire Reserve for Amex Platinum?
Replies: 24
Views: 4232

Re: Shall I dump chase sapphire Reserve for Amex Platinum?

Sapphire reserve is free for me. 300 travel credit+ 60/yr door dash credit + 180/yr instacart credit.

4.5% cash back rewards for dining and credit with pay yourself back categories

Travel insurance is free so that’s on top of all the other stuff.

Lounges
by am
Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?
Replies: 73
Views: 9285

Re: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?

I am thinking that you may spend less on travel and leisure as you get older, but there is a chance you may need more care and assisted living, long term care as well?
by am
Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocation To High Risk High Reward?
Replies: 48
Views: 3683

Re: Allocation To High Risk High Reward?

junior wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:14 am The hedgefundie excellent adventure portfolio thread on this site has a high risk high reward strategy.
May be a good time to jump in now
by am
Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocation To High Risk High Reward?
Replies: 48
Views: 3683

Re: Allocation To High Risk High Reward?

junior wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:14 am The hedgefundie excellent adventure portfolio thread on this site has a high risk high reward strategy.
May be a good time to jump in now
by am
Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making Additional Investment in Intermediate Term Tax-Exempt Bond Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 1074

Re: Making Additional Investment in Intermediate Term Tax-Exempt Bond Fund

To keep my allocation percentages in line, it looks like I need to deploy $60k from cash into the intermediate term tax-exempt bond fund (VWIUX) that is already in my portfolio. I kind of neglected it this year while adding to my other funds. FWIW, I'm in a very high tax bracket and live in a somewhat high state/local tax area. I've run into a few quick questions. 1. Since we're in a rising interest environment, I had thoughts about keeping the $60k in a short term treasury and then deploying the money to the VWIUX fund in 3 or 6 months in the hopes that, by then, the Fed has eased up on interest rate increases. I know this is timing though. Thoughts on this? 2. I recently moved my brokerage account to Fidelity. Their version of VWITX/VWIU...
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Here’s my prediction for 12 months from now: HFEA will have a positive return as of 11/12/23 with starting point of 11/11/22 and at least half of that return will come from TMF. So I’m still keeping the 55/45 ratio. Rationale: by 12 months inflation numbers will be better (they are already improved slightly this week). As a result long term rates will fall, leading to a rise in TMF. If there is a recession rates will drop even more leading to an even higher spike of TMF. It’s worth what you paid (zero) but I’m putting it out there so it’s a prediction that can be tested. That’s my rationale for keeping the 45% tmf ratio. I agree with you. I think I will rebalance from 28% tmf to 45% tmf but I hope I am not catching a falling knife. Maybe i...
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:26 pm
am wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:21 pm Isn’t the entire point of this risk parity? If I don’t rebalance, is there a point in continuing forward? Or do you think rebalancing makes sense? I can’t see how rates will go down unless something totally unexpected happens.
Imo it does not make sense to rebalance, but there is a point in continuing forward because part of HFEA is to hope for outsized equities return, and by not rebalancing you have more equities.
But isn’t 55/45 the sweet spot? Why not 100 upro/0 tmf? Especially since we don’t think tmf is going to do well under the current rising rates ? Tmf won’t come to the rescue of equity crashes now.
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:59 pm
am wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:57 pm Maybe I will. Right now tmf is 28% of portoflio because I haven’t rebalanced for a while. Feel like rebalancing into tmf from upro might be rebalancing into a falling knife.

What’s the current ratio of upro/tmf recommended given the fed hikes?
I don't think the strategy changes anything based on the hikes (i.e. still 55/45), but some posters stopped rebalancing like you, which isn't unreasonable.
Isn’t the entire point of this risk parity? If I don’t rebalance, is there a point in continuing forward? Or do you think rebalancing makes sense? I can’t see how rates will go down unless something totally unexpected happens.
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:54 pm
am wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:48 pm The hedgefundie is definitely less then 5% of total. Still hurts to see 50k disappear or underperform plain old sp 500 for decades that I may not have left?
If less than 5%, I'd keep going if I were you. It sucks to be down but you aren't rekt either way.
Maybe I will. Right now tmf is 28% of portoflio because I haven’t rebalanced for a while. Feel like rebalancing into tmf from upro might be rebalancing into a falling knife.

What’s the current ratio of upro/tmf recommended given the fed hikes?
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:46 pm
am wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:44 pm Maybe it’s better to take the 35k I have left in hedgefundie and buy some lottery tickets or go to the casino? At least I’ll know if the money 10x or went to zero by the end of the night…. :D
Well the idea is to run this strategy within your "funny money" space, so it won't wreck your portfolio even if it goes completely south. But your funny money allocation seems greater than 5~10%, so I'd review that situation first. My funny money space is 5% of my overall AA as far as allocation, so it won't impact too much no matter what happens.
The hedgefundie is definitely less then 5% of total. Still hurts to see 50k disappear or underperform plain old sp 500 for decades that I may not have left?
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:35 pm
am wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 1:55 pm Does the graph indicate that those of us middle aged may see the outsized returns when we don’t value them anymore or aren’t alive?
The graph doesn't promise anything, but the 20Y at 4% is not particularly high if you look at the long-term trend. This means TMF might not do so hot even if the Fed stops hiking.
Maybe it’s better to take the 35k I have left in hedgefundie and buy some lottery tickets or go to the casino? At least I’ll know if the money 10x or went to zero by the end of the night…. :D. Thinking of getting out of hedgefundie on Monday?
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ reporter doing story
Replies: 7
Views: 1795

Re: WSJ reporter doing story

whodidntante wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:44 pm
stan1 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:31 pm
whodidntante wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:27 pm A million ain't what it used to be.
OK, but that's all a lot of people have and plenty have less. It's even $1M excluding home equity.

I'm looking forward to the article, and I'm glad the reporters are writing it.
I kind of enjoy the "can I retire?" threads here. On the other hand, you have the leanFIRE crowd, some of whom seem to have long retirements on much less than a million. I just wish one would come on here and ask just so I could watch the FIREworks. :happy
I often see fireworks when some come on here with 3 mil and a paid off house asking if they can retire. :D
by am
Sat Nov 12, 2022 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

You'd be incorrect - It grows to 400M starting in 1955. It also is 7x 100% SPY. Starting in 1965 - which was the worst year to start - it grows to 80M and is still over 4x 100% SPY. The challenge is the massive drawdown. Investors really have to understand what -70% means. Agreed. HFEA starting in 1955 trails SPY from 1969-1998, by 50-70% for much of that period. Substiting ITT for LTT gives the same return as HFEA from 1955-present (7x SPY). But the period of trailing SPY is entirely eliminated. Although from 1974-1995 it is tied with SPY. Starting in 1965 is even worse of course. Even mHFEA using ITT falls 50% behind SPY for a period. If you want to eliminate any period of significant underperformance relative to SPY, you have to use STT...
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So in the backtests, when did the strategy zoom into the millions of dollars? Was it gradual or a specific time of falling rates and rising market like 80s-90s? If I remember, one backtested period resulted in high volatility and similar returns to no leverage. I do not know which backtest you were looking at, but I suspect it didn't have the data from 1965~1980. This was when this strategy absolutely would've gotten rekt had you been pouring money into it. I recall simulated tests using data going back to the 50s in the original thread. There was a whole other thread where data generation was discussed. And no, HFEA did not perform well in the 70s. That’s where the 60-70% draw downs occurred. That time period was also used as justificatio...
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The upro/tmf hedgefundie strategy is appealing because it’s got lottery ticket like returns for a relatively small investment. I think I remember backtests showing 100k going to 10 mil (not sure how long that took). But obviously it has tons of risk and we’ve entered one of the conditions for the strategy not to work - rising rates and falling market. Whether that lasts years or a few more months is anyones guess. There is no free lunch though. UPRO might outperform SPY by 10% or so, but TMF over TLT is minuscule if not disadvantageous: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmo...
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:48 pm
am wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:22 pm Right, if we are in for a long 1970s style bad equity markets and rising rates then this strategy is doomed (but so is a 3 funder).
3-funder is doomed but they aren't going -70%, and their duration is also much shorter than HFEA. It's much palatable to hold a 3-funder through a downturn.
The upro/tmf hedgefundie strategy is appealing because it’s got lottery ticket like returns for a relatively small investment. I think I remember backtests showing 100k going to 10 mil (not sure how long that took).

But obviously it has tons of risk and we’ve entered one of the conditions for the strategy not to work - rising rates and falling market. Whether that lasts years or a few more months is anyones guess.
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391611

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

PoorHomieQuan wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:21 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
am wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:26 am Would you give up on psldx and hedfundie leveraged strategy knowing what we know now about future hikes? I am down 72% on my long bond 3x etf tmf and rebalancing into it seems like a bad idea?
If we're market timing, I think it's the other way around, isn't it? You want to look for the time to buy, not sell. The time to sell was when inflation was 10% and interest was zero. Plenty of warning there.
I think this is (one) problem with HFEA. It does require market timing to not get wiped out. You may think the warning signs were obvious, but clearly a lot of people missed these signs.
The signs are still there. 8% inflation and interest rates around 4%. Doesn’t look good.
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:18 pm
am wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:12 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:04 pm If one's doing HFEA in their "funny money" space, they should just hold on. It's also OK to close HFEA and start another trade. The whole point is it won't materially impact your portfolio even if you lose 100% of it.
I think if I lose 100% then the rest of my portfolio is in big trouble.
OK, that would be a tough situation. In my opinion, 20Y will go up more as the Fed is still hiking (they might not do 75 bps in December, but there is no question they are raising, not holding steady or slashing rates).

You have to decide what to do based on how you think the long-term rates move.
Right, if we are in for a long 1970s style bad equity markets and rising rates then this strategy is doomed (but so is a 3 funder).
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:04 pm If one's doing HFEA in their "funny money" space, they should just hold on. It's also OK to close HFEA and start another trade. The whole point is it won't materially impact your portfolio even if you lose 100% of it.
I think if I lose 100% then the rest of my portfolio is in big trouble.
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does hedgefundie tmf/upro make any sense with the current interest rate hiking going on? I am down 72% on tmf 3x long bond and seems like we are not close to finish on the hikes? Anyone quitting and cutting their losses? I am debating right now what to do? I have about an 18k loss on 53k cost basis. Thinking of taking that money from hedgefundie and going back to the vanilla 3 funder the rest of my portoflio is in. But then I start thinking of the millions that may be there in 10-20 years if I stick with hedgefundie. But what if tmf goes to zero? That's the risk. If you don't want the volatility better to exit, but if you have only a 34% loss you must have started HFEA this year with some of the drop already. No one can guarantee it will w...
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391611

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

Blue456 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:35 am What will happen if interest rates go up to 18%?
They could. But then how will the gov make bond interest payments?

What will tmf be worth? Thinking zero.
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does hedgefundie tmf/upro make any sense with the current interest rate hiking going on?

I am down 72% on tmf 3x long bond and seems like we are not close to finish on the hikes? Anyone quitting and cutting their losses? I am debating right now what to do? I have about an 18k loss on 53k cost basis.

Thinking of taking that money from hedgefundie and going back to the vanilla 3 funder the rest of my portoflio is in.

But then I start thinking of the millions that may be there in 10-20 years if I stick with hedgefundie. But what if tmf goes to zero?
by am
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391611

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

I think before buying it one needs to understand how these instruments work. When feds said they are going to increase the rates, obviously it was the time to get out of the long duration bonds. As when rates go up, bonds fall in price. And longer duration bonds fall more. Feds don't increase the rates without warning you. So whenever the federal government says that rates are going to go up, it is time to get out of long duration bonds and then buy short duration bonds or stay in cash. And whenever the federal government says that they are pausing the rate hike( may happen in 2023), that probably would be the time to go in to psldx. :beer I believe Psldx is a good instrument and I'm sure as soon as feds pause the hike in interest rates, i...
by am
Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally offers 1% cash bonus on new deposits - up to $500 bonus
Replies: 337
Views: 49439

Re: Ally offers 1% on new deposits - up to $500 bonus

So after taxes at a high bracket, we are making these cash movements for the equivalent of a nice dinner out? As I get older I have resisted these types of things.
by am
Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell VXUS?
Replies: 25
Views: 2406

Re: Sell VXUS?

It’s easy to lose patience, but I can recall a time back when I joined this forum years ago when 100% emerging markets were being debated :shock:
by am
Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation pressures are in fact cooling ..
Replies: 10
Views: 1796

Re: Inflation pressures are in fact cooling ..

It seems to me that inflation is hot all over the world. Could it be supply chains are the issue after the pandemic? Seems like the fed is cooling the demand side and there is no work being done on the supply side. If there was, it may be different now.
by am
Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will cd rates hit 3 percent this fall
Replies: 63
Views: 10257

Re: Will cd rates hit 3 percent this fall

1 yr treasury at near 4% this morning.
by am
Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Tamalak wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:20 am When I go to portfolio visualizer and plug in "long term treasury" for the range 2010-2019 - the range available for UPRO and TMF data at the time this adventure was started - the correlation between treasuries and the US stock market was a glorious -0.48

When I plug in "long term treasury" for the FULL range available - 1972-2022 - the correlation between treasuries and the US stock market was 0.04 ... essentially 0.

If Treasuries don't move against US stocks, but instead wiggle around with no regard to US stocks, how can they act as protection?
They do not. It was a risk explicitly stated in original post. Fed support for market was assumed. Risk has shown up. Tmf to zero may happen
by am
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:05 pm
am wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:02 pm I get no one knows. This strategy has got to be super risky given the potential returns.
It's risky, but I think it is incorrect to think that risky strategies are profitable.
I am saying that if potential returns can be big then there has to be enormous downside risk. In this case, tmf has a real chance of getting near zero. Maybe sooner then we think. Only reason I haven’t quit, is because I am often wrong :D
by am
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

chrisdds98 wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:33 pm looks like tmf dropped into single digits in anticipation of the cpi tomorrow. really hope the fed gets this under control, its painful holding tmf!
Wonder if tmf will go near zero as we approach 4,5,6,7% interest if we get there?

Really on the cusp of abandoning this strategy. Wasn’t this the death knell of this strategy? Rising long dated bond yields and dropping stocks?

I get no one knows. This strategy has got to be super risky given the potential returns.
by am
Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970819

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think I’m going to quit this strategy with a loss. Too much risk at this point with inflation running high. Who knows where interest rates will end up? If they go much higher, TMF may be near zero :shock: UPRO may not be too far behind in this case.

Plus, the pay off of this strategy being successful may be years down the line when I won’t need the money much or worse…

On the other hand, we may be setting up for an 80s-90s type of run where interest rates get to a high level and then fall over the subsequent decades and lead to large stock and bond gains.

Anyones crystal ball working well this morning ?
by am
Sun Sep 11, 2022 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Public.com 2% / $10k no risk return legit?? [as transfer bonus]
Replies: 75
Views: 8045

Re: Public.com 2% / 10% no risk return legit??

What could go wrong? Hacking, bankruptcy, identity theft, fund theft.

Why are they so motivated to give such crazy money out-10k for a mil? 5k for 500k. Never seen anything close.

After the celsius debacle, I am burned for life. Although I rescued my money two days before the asset freeze.