Bogleheads

He just means that ''fully reflects" needs a definition. (Obviously, a hypothesis with undefined terms is not testible.)

That's precisely the point. You can test it. But you can't test it wit ...

The fact that someone would even call beating the market a "talent" is laughable.

If such a thing exists it would be something similar to industrial process control, it would be a kind of ...

He just means that ''fully reflects" needs a definition. (Obviously, a hypothesis with undefined terms is not testible.)

That's precisely the point. You can test it. But you can't test it wit ...

You don't understand. I am suggesting proving one of the alternatives. Proving one of these thousands or millions of claims.
You've lost me. You said EMH was empirically verifiable. Now you want ...

You don't understand. I am suggesting proving one of the alternatives. Proving one of these thousands or millions of claims.
You've lost me. You said EMH was empirically verifiable. Now you want ...

You don't understand. I am suggesting proving one of the alternatives. Proving one of these thousands or millions of claims.
You've lost me. You said EMH was empirically verifiable. Now you want ...

It's not a matter of logic that reliable methods cannot survive publications. Their is a whole field of behavioral economics says that humans have tendancies that keep them from efficient investing r ...

Shiller could raise some capital and put his money (and other people's money) where his mouth is, and do so in a systematic well documented manner. A few decades later Shiller Investment Bank woul ...

It's not a matter of logic that reliable methods cannot survive publications. Their is a whole field of behavioral economics says that humans have tendancies that keep them from efficient investing r ...

It's not a matter of logic that reliable methods cannot survive publications. Their is a whole field of behavioral economics says that humans have tendancies that keep them from efficient investing r ...

Actually, a method that was reliable would prove that a market was not efficient. If the method kept working after it was revealed to the public, then that would be a counter-example against the EMH. ...

If you assume that a perfectly efficient market means that it's not possible for anyone at all (not BGI, not Warren Buffett, not the entire trading floor of Goldman Sachs) to outperform the market on ...

tadamsmar wrote:

That does not demonstrate a tautology. Here is an example of a tautology:

You are either 6 feet tall or you are not 6 feet tall.

It's something that cannot be disproven, no ...

If you assume that a perfectly efficient market means that it's not possible for anyone at all (not BGI, not Warren Buffett, not the entire trading floor of Goldman Sachs) to outperform the market on ...

tms wrote:

The problem is, as is with most critics of EMH, he doesn't offer an alternative.

Actually, isn't this also part of the "tautoloy"? A or not A. A is true because not A cann ...

Since it is unpredictability that matters, why does the specific wording of the EMH get so much attention? IMO, it's psychological. Humans have a hard time dealing with randomness, we seem to need an ...

A better predictor would identify which assets have a higher risk-adjusted return.
Are you saying that in order to disprove EMH someone has to find a reliable way to beat the market?

Actually, a m ...

tms wrote:

The problem is, as is with most critics of EMH, he doesn't offer an alternative.

Actually, isn't this also part of the "tautoloy"? A or not A. A is true because not A cann ...

What would refute the EMH?

A sound statistical hypothesis test that shows that some predictor (an ABC based-predictor, for instance) is a better predictor than the price set by the market.
A bette ...

Therefore, a proof that the price is a highly imprecise predictor does not refute the EMH.
What would refute the EMH?

A sound statistical hypothesis test that shows that some predictor (an ABC bas ...

ABC does not hold up to scrutiny:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory#Empirical_research

So what if somebody, Austrian or otherwise, predicted the market would crash befo ...

So what's the moral to the story?

Is it that we can use 4% is a good planning number?
Is it that we adjust according to current conditions?
If the US markets over the last 100 years are a reliabl ...

So what's the moral to the story?

Is it that we can use 4% is a good planning number?
Is it that we adjust according to current conditions?
If the US markets over the last 100 years are a reliabl ...

Withdrawing an arbitrary percentage in retirement has never made sense to me. The only way to guarantee a fixed income stream is just to buy an annuity. Otherwise, I am partial to the idea of living ...

I think the biggest problem with the Trinity Study is that they exclusively used the single most successful national stock market in the world. Does not seem like a representative (much less conserv ...

At current valuations, my burn rate is around 3.5%. At the market low in March, 2009, it was in the 5% range. While all of the retirement calculators I've used show that my plan has a high probability ...

If someone would have predicted back in early 2009 that the markets would advance to these levels, I would have accused them of drinking a pint of Fleischman's Vodka! Or maybe even a fifth! This bear ...

remember this when thinking of dropping the insurance..

worst case scenario... house burns down or is destroyed.. .

Nope. Worst case scenario is the neighborhood kid falls down your steps, sus ...

the neighborhood kid falls down your steps, sustains a head injury, ends up in an ICU for 6 months and sends you the bill.

I though frivolous lawsuits were generally being denied these days (?) or ...

remember this when thinking of dropping the insurance..

worst case scenario... house burns down or is destroyed.. .

Nope. Worst case scenario is the neighborhood kid falls down your steps, sus ...

I think its a good idea to get a IIHS Top Safety Pick:

http://www.iihs.org/ratings/default.aspx

They have them back to the 2006 model year.

In particular, get Electonic Stability Control. It ...

I wonder if anyone has ever tried to determine a rebalancing algorithm by using the efficient frontier calculation?

There should be 2 reasons for rebalancing: (1) shift from your risk target and (2 ...

The problem is if one investor thinks the price is wrong, it is very difficult for him to profit since he must trade with the market. In reality there are many on both sides of the price who think it ...

Vanguard rules that prevent short-term timing also prevent frequent rebalancing, and even band-based rebalancing if volatility is high enough.

I am looking at my liabilty exposure. I have half interest in a farm that seems to be fully exposed to liability claims even if I declared bankrupcy.
The farm has a tax value of $400,0000.

I have ...

On advice of my attorney, I dropped my farm into an LLC even though I also own an umbrella policy. The attorney specializes in asset protection, LLC law, tax law and estate planning.

I did this m ...

I am looking at my liabilty exposure. I have half interest in a farm that seems to be fully exposed to liability claims even if I declared bankrupcy.
The farm has a tax value of $400,0000.

I have ...

Aren't some of these studies plagued by a apples to oranges comparison?

If you ignore risk or sd, then never rebalancing looks good, the less the better. So, a study that only looks at returns, ra ...

www.financialengines.com

Are IRA's, 401Ks, and TSP accounts exposed to personal liability claims?

I am looking at getting an umbrella insurance policy to protect any of my exposed assets.

It deends on the nature of the ...

This site says that rollover IRAs have been protected since 2005, and traditional+Roth IRAs are protected up to 1 million:

http://www.retirement-retirement.com/Large_IRA's_not_fully_protected_from_ ...

Are IRA's, 401Ks, and TSP accounts exposed to personal liability claims?

I am looking at getting an umbrella insurance policy to protect any of my exposed assets.

I just rebalance to ratios close to my target asset allocation every year around the time of my birtday, so the bond/stock allocation is about right after rebalancing. None of my funds are in taxabl ...

The inflation rate from 1970-2000 was about 5%. Assuming that as a poor inflationary 30-year scenario (obviously not the worst case, since something can always be worse) and noting that the Gordon mo ...

Do we get proxy statements for the shareholder's meetings? I don recall ever getting one. He is info on the 2009 meeting:

http://www.vanguard.com/jumppage/proxy/

"EMH is only disproved if prices in the future are predictable - i.e., you are able to consistently outperform the market." You don't need EMH to prove that there is no general way to outper ...

I wonder if it is possible to merge a Vanguard traditional IRA with a Vanguard rollover IRA in order to simplify when you are willing to give up any possibility of rolling over?

Yes, I've done ...

I think no shareholders is the answer. I think this explains why Fidelity, another privately-owned company, has always struck me as being "not as good as Vanguard, but not too bad, really." ...

Vanguard just converted my TIPS fund to Admiral, automatically. They did send me a notice saying that they would do so by a certain date if I didn't tell them otherwise, but basically I didn't have to ...

I would think that the "it's efficient, but irrational" concept would not really support the idea that one should buy and hold the entire stock market at all times.

There's nothing in MPT ...