Bogleheads

By your screen name, I assume that you are employed by the US Navy. That is a pretty secure job even during the worst of times. You can even retire early with full health benifits and a pension.
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If I expected my child to enter a 4 year college in say 11 years, then I would buy a 1, 2, 3, and 4 year CD, and then roll them each over to a 10 year CD as they matured. One would then mature each y ...

The EMH requires no proof, as it is a "null hypothesis", it simply becomes a more probably correct observation the longer it holds. A null hypothesis simply states that there is no differen ...

tadamsmar wrote:

That does not demonstrate a tautology. Here is an example of a tautology:

You are either 6 feet tall or you are not 6 feet tall.

It's something that cannot be disproven, no ...

tms wrote:

The problem is, as is with most critics of EMH, he doesn't offer an alternative.

Actually, isn't this also part of the "tautoloy"? A or not A. A is true because not A cann ...

tms wrote:

The problem is, as is with most critics of EMH, he doesn't offer an alternative.

Actually, isn't this also part of the "tautoloy"? A or not A. A is true because not A cann ...

I have had several bond funds in a Fidelity fixed income account for some time now. This is why:

http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/FixedIncomeAccount.png

TBM and FGOVX trac ...

"Prudence is good. Fear is no way to live."

Amen to that. Thanks for talking me off the ledge.

A notable person once said that prudence is an essential virtue and the only known substi ...

It sounds like children playing with magic cards.

Interesting post with the Tarrot card Nisi, they were often used by the "enlightened" of their day to advise Royality on all sorts of ...

I like Jeremiah's suggestion about your risk tolerance. My suggestion in addition to that would be to switch off the AM talk radio.

do a nondeductible IRA(no limit for this) in 2009, and in 2010, and then convert it to a Roth in 2010 when there are no limits for conversion.

Wow. I never heard of a nondeductible IRA before. Th ...

I know the conventional wisdom states that bond prices will go down when interest rates rise - but does anyone have any empirical data (or chart) that shows the historical correlation between say Vang ...

nisiprius wrote:

I found it hard to envision many scenarios where one would have a need for income ending in a specific known year.

It is almost like insuring that the payments of a loan (or c ...

Doesn't the book "Bogleheads Guide to Investing" use past performance data in it argument for index funds?

Hi Spam:

The primary argument for index funds is "low-cost" -- not ...

Doesn't the book "Bogleheads Guide to Investing" use past performance data in it argument for index funds?

tutaloo was attacked mercilessly here and has been MIA for quite some time. This was a pretty rough place last March when the market bottomed. Any critical thought got bombarded with party-line quip ...

Aren't bank loans one rung above bonds in the bankruptcy payment priority ladder? If so, maybe this makes them safer than bonds.

Gabrier wrote:

The NAV is arbitrary because it is computed on a per-share basis. When the account was created, the provider determined how many shares to divide it into, and set the NAV per share a ...

I have the same crappy plan from Principal. The only bright spot is that after much whining, kicking and writing letters, I was able to get the company fund people to add a decent bond fund - Dreyfus ...

Now for your specific questions -

"US Property Separate Account" - Real estate funds are down about that much from the peak in 2007. Your plan should tell you how frequently transfer ...

I don't think the numbers are very far off. Government is too transparent, and there are far too many people looking at the CPI-U basket of goods.

There are many billions invested in inflation ind ...

My 401k is with Principal. All of the index funds (and anything offered by Principal) are "seperate accounts".

I already got screwed by "The US Property Seperate Account". I i ...

With the exception of Treasuries, there is no central clearing house for bonds that is like the NYSE. Once Treasuries get to the secondary market, then there is no central clearing house for those ei ...

I increased my risk substantially in early 2009 through the middle of April. Since then, I have been putting everything into fixed income of all types to reach my target of 60 - 40 across the board a ...

I thought the value of an ounce gold was pegged to the price of a decent suit? Very Happy

$1100 gets you a few suits.

It would buy you a few suits in Dante's day as well. The key is "a suit of s ...

In discussions about bonds, there is always confusion about the distinction between an individual bond and a fund. Also, there is confusion between holding a individual bond to maturity and selling i ...

http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/vgpmxandvtsmx.png

Gold is trading at its historic high price per ounce, but this basket of mining company stock and precious metals is still o ...

The market went Up Up Up Up Up today. Yay ! Go up. Up up up up. Go up !

Funny, I don't think it even flinched in response to my request. I went to the Casino for an all-you-can-eat buffet last ...

Omo wrote
If the investing public is demographically top heavy (ie more baby boomers than Gen X and Y's) then as the baby boomer generation sells to fund their retirement, there will be more supply o ...

doc wrote:

Well the statement is not true. The calculation assumes nothing about future interest rate changes. The concept of duration comes from a discounted cash flow analysis that sets the prese ...

Doc wrote:
<snip> Actually the McCauley duration calculation is on present value and makes absolutely no assumption at all on future rates. It is only the defined cash flows that are known at ...

Why not consider a 5 year CD ladder? Right now, the rates for brokered 5 year CD's are higher (3.15%) than it is for Treasury Bonds. This is how a typical Ladder is constructed.

http://personal.f ...

linuxer wrote:
The statement that the duration is the point of indifference is true, but it is equally true that neither a coupon-paying bond nor a bond fund will automatically adjust your duration i ...

No gimmicks.

The period of the loan is the same as the low interest period.
It is only for well qualified buyers. They don't expect defaults.

Watch out for that first payment.

I took advant ...

I ordered a copy from Amazon the day it went on sale, but I have not recieved it yet. I bought a second book to get the free shipping which takes 5 to 9 days. I hope to see it either today or monday ...

From today's news:

"A huge influx of orders prevented the New York Stock Exchange from disseminating quotes shortly after the start of trading on Friday. NYSE Euronext, the parent of the New ...

3CTPaddler wrote:

Isn't this pointless really? If 401k providers do not have to compete for your money they will use every trick in the book to separate you from your money.

I would LOVE to have ...

Thanks for the chart Jeffy. It is a keeper. Funny how some talk about the "Cap Weighted Market Portfolio" and then translate that into 60% TSM and 40% TBM.

As your post indicates, it sh ...

thanks a lot.
what i heard it that since gov printed a lot of money and bought treas bonds by itself, so the gov bonds are bubble.
I just don't quite get what that means.

The Fed is nearing the ...

rokid wrote:

Holding the TBM and Long Term U.S. bonds in a portfolio seems like a bet on deflation and/or decreasing interest rates.

I placed my bet on rising interest rates by constructing a 5 ...

Those are pretty good questions. What would a bond bubble look like?

Bonds have performed well because the interest rates have been generally going down for a long time this tends to increase the ...

Here is an interesting interview with Susie Buffet on being Warren's daughter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8326348.stm

I really enjoyed the Charlie Munger interview. Thank you for posting it.

I don't think you need a forecast to recognize that, for example, 6 > 3.5.

Right!

And with the 30-year treasury (the flavor preferred by Browne's Permanent Portfolio) at 4.3%, any signific ...

I just ordered my copy at Amazon. Yea! Great timing too. I was looking for another book to read. My all-time favorite is the 4 Pillars.

-this is a duplicate thread-

There is a pretty big one here already http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=40644

Mr. Bernstein has even posted a few comments there.

I thought this part of the article was interesting.

Where I Placed My Bets

Vanguard and Fidelity offer quite a lot, so I have accounts with both. I go to Fidelity for its index funds, muni funds ...

Trev, you keep saying that a cap-weighted portfolio is not diversified.

A cap-weighted portfolio IS diversified!

Not this again. This is a strawman argument and nothing more than a symantic blu ...

http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn121/Spam_on_Toast/vtsmxandvgenx.png

VGENX has a higher expense ratio than VTSMX. Maybe you should pass on it.

Interest rates are low. Why convert oil to cash when it earns more by leaving it in the ground? When low production meets low demand, prices can rise.

Also, don't low interest rates aid speculat ...