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  Topic: EMH "failed spectacularly", is a tautology
sommerfeld

Replies: 101
Views: 2645

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 8:08 pm   Subject: EMH "failed spectacularly", is a tautology
The 2009 Yahoo! Rock Paper Scissors World Championship was just won in Toronto. Tim Conrad "combined a scissors-exclusionary strategy with a lethal Avalanche - Bureaucrat combination" to be ...
  Topic: EMH "failed spectacularly", is a tautology
sommerfeld

Replies: 101
Views: 2645

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:13 pm   Subject: EMH "failed spectacularly", is a tautology
EMH needs to prove its own case on its own merits.

1) There are green spiders on Venus. (Fama)
2) Show me a green spider on Venus (Reporter)
3) Prove to me there are not green spiders on Venus (F ...
  Topic: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
sommerfeld

Replies: 50
Views: 1903

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:16 am   Subject: Re: Strange mortgage.
What is the "main risk" if "mortgage must be repaid ahead of schedule." I never heard of a residential "mortgage that must be repaid ahead of schedule?"

well, the cas ...
  Topic: Praise for Automatic Bill Payment (not online bill payment)
sommerfeld

Replies: 45
Views: 2028

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:35 pm   Subject: Praise for Automatic Bill Payment (not online bill payment)
I'm happy with push-style electronic bill pay. I'll only do automatic billing to a credit card.

I want to see and approve each charge before money leaves my account.
  Topic: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
sommerfeld

Replies: 50
Views: 1903

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:02 pm   Subject: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
For instance, I feel sorry for those that did pour all their extra money into paying their mortgage to be debt free and ended up losing their jobs and having an 3-6 month emergency savings that was no ...
  Topic: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
sommerfeld

Replies: 50
Views: 1903

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 6:45 pm   Subject: Re: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
Now the bulk of the 100k could be invested in other things that could equal the after tax return on the mortgage, even without a great amount of risk.

Can you be more specific? If you invest in b ...
  Topic: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
sommerfeld

Replies: 50
Views: 1903

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:20 pm   Subject: Re: Am I crazy for wanting to refinance to a 30-year?
I'm almost ready to refinance my mortgage to a 30-year and lock in a 4.75% rate. It would not really have anything to do with saving money because of a lower interest. It may sound crazy, but I am w ...
  Topic: My adviser thinks I should not be in stocks at all
sommerfeld

Replies: 45
Views: 4477

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 1:49 pm   Subject: My adviser thinks I should not be in stocks at all
Not at all unlikely if the money you would otherwise be using to pay off the mortgage is invested in long-term municipal bonds. Admiral shares of Long-Term Tax-Exempt are yielding 3.83%, and your 29- ...
  Topic: employee stock options - hedging/collar strategies?
sommerfeld

Replies: 14
Views: 485

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 11:43 am   Subject: Re: employee stock options - hedging/collar strategies?
Check the fine print in your employment and/or options agreements. Some or all forms of hedging your employers stock may be expressly disallowed.
  Topic: The Future of the Wiki
sommerfeld

Replies: 71
Views: 4074

PostForum: Forum Issues and Administration   Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 4:30 pm   Subject: The Future of the Wiki
from an ongoing maintenance standpoint we'll be better served in most cases by plain text with light or no markup; a big chunk of complex html with embedded CSS directives (like the quoted forum page ...
  Topic: Peak Gold?
sommerfeld

Replies: 29
Views: 1861

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 3:00 pm   Subject: Peak Gold?
After solving the legal problems of claiming ownership, they could simply send out a robotic probe to measure and assay what's in the asteroid, and issue certificates of ownership.

That is, actuall ...
  Topic: The Future of the Wiki
sommerfeld

Replies: 71
Views: 4074

PostForum: Forum Issues and Administration   Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 11:30 pm   Subject: The Future of the Wiki
I just signed up as a wiki editor. I definitely have techie skills (I've done surgery on the guts of mediawiki for a private wiki I set up at work).

I'd encourage less-technical people to feel fre ...
  Topic: 22 Year Old Inheritance Trust/Beginning Career
sommerfeld

Replies: 9
Views: 1124

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 6:57 pm   Subject: Re: 22 Year Old Inheritance Trust/Beginning Career
Debt: 7200 student loans ($160 a month)

What's the interest rate on this loan and how much does the balance go down each month (how much of the $160 is principal and how much is interest?)

I wou ...
  Topic: Peak Gold?
sommerfeld

Replies: 29
Views: 1861

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 5:55 pm   Subject: Peak Gold?
Regarding the asteroid: The extraction costs would of course be extreme, and transportation of something so large would be nigh-impossible, so what I wrote earlier about NASA was tongue in cheek... bu ...
  Topic: Invest Cash or Payoff Mortgage
sommerfeld

Replies: 8
Views: 811

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 6:30 pm   Subject: Re: Invest Cash or Payoff Mortgage

You can invest the cash in Long-Term Tax-Exempt Admiral Shares at a 3.82% yield tax-free, which is better than the 4.5% taxable return you would get from paying off the mortgage, and has very little ...
  Topic: Chase Slate
sommerfeld

Replies: 3
Views: 610

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:52 am   Subject: Re: Chase Slate
I heard there are no additional fees. The selling point is that those card users who only pay the minimum on their bill would be credited for 12 months for their finance charges.
They're attempting t ...
  Topic: PBS/Frontline on 401(k)s
sommerfeld

Replies: 27
Views: 2588

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:36 pm   Subject: PBS/Frontline on 401(k)s

Disappointing how often misleading information about PBGC coverage is posted here and in the news media.
we don't have enough information about this specific case to assign blame; it seems likely t ...
  Topic: IEA official claims oil production forecasts inflated
sommerfeld

Replies: 2
Views: 329

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:17 pm   Subject: IEA official claims oil production forecasts inflated
The thread subject is misleading -- this is not an official IEA forecast, but the view of a dissenter within IEA.

  Topic: PBS/Frontline on 401(k)s
sommerfeld

Replies: 27
Views: 2588

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:31 pm   Subject: PBS/Frontline on 401(k)s
One way to make the system as fair as possible would be to have a defined benefit pension plan. Everybody gets the same investment return out of the same pool of invested money with no choices to scr ...
  Topic: CD'S with Flagstar Bank of Troy , Mi
sommerfeld

Replies: 27
Views: 3081

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:51 pm   Subject: CD'S with Flagstar Bank of Troy , Mi
Can you elaborate on what you mean by "Call Risk"?
CD's are (conceptually) like bonds -- they are a promise by the bank to pay you interest over a certain period, and then pay you back your ...
  Topic: transporting your car
sommerfeld

Replies: 10
Views: 440

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:25 pm   Subject: transporting your car
This spring, I successfully used http://www.dasautoshippers.com/ to move my car from the Boston, MA area to San Jose, CA.

Because of where their terminal locations were, I dropped it off at one of ...
  Topic: The Future of the Wiki
sommerfeld

Replies: 71
Views: 4074

PostForum: Forum Issues and Administration   Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:16 pm   Subject: Re: The Future of the Wiki

Perhaps this would be of use?
http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Extension:PHPBB/Users_Integration
that seems like a good idea, and I've seen mediawiki (the software used by the bogleheads wiki) work w ...
  Topic: The Future of the Wiki
sommerfeld

Replies: 71
Views: 4074

PostForum: Forum Issues and Administration   Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:08 pm   Subject: Re: The Future of the Wiki
Any other thoughts or suggestions out there?
I suggest reducing barriers to entry.

I've seen incorrect stuff in the wiki but have never gotten past the entry barrier of registering in order to fi ...
  Topic: Handling different banks once married
sommerfeld

Replies: 35
Views: 1776

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:07 pm   Subject: Handling different banks once married
Just got married this summer.

We each have individual accounts at local credit unions and a joint account at "my" credit union which we set up before the wedding.

We have a budget sp ...
  Topic: Riddle me this: negative borrowing rates
sommerfeld

Replies: 21
Views: 1674

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:31 pm   Subject: Riddle me this: negative borrowing rates
I don't know the answer, but when I got my discount for financing, the guy made it sound like there was a - glitch? loophole? wormhole? in their deal with GMAC and HE suggested that I take advantage o ...
  Topic: A different view on gold and currencies
sommerfeld

Replies: 9
Views: 988

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:21 pm   Subject: Re: excellent article
Very insightful article. If other fiat currencies collapse, it will tend to drive the demand for gold, not necessarily the dollar.

Gold is bedrock for me. It isn't so much about a "return on ...
  Topic: Good index fund entry point this week?
sommerfeld

Replies: 23
Views: 2071

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:31 pm   Subject: Good index fund entry point this week?
Every week is a good entry point for index funds. The more you save now, the more you'll have later. Just set up an automated weekly or monthly investment and forget about it.

(I'm a little annoy ...
  Topic: Money decoupled from value?
sommerfeld

Replies: 27
Views: 1589

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 12:31 pm   Subject: Money decoupled from value?
But I can't create money!
You can, but it will typically be short-lived.

Write a check and give it to someone.

The check you wrote can be endorsed from person to person in exchange for goods, ...
  Topic: Money decoupled from value?
sommerfeld

Replies: 27
Views: 1589

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:04 am   Subject: Re: Money decoupled from value?
I read a while back about how money is "created" in the US (and probably many other countries). Basically, it said that if $10 is deposited into a bank, the bank can turn around and lend, li ...
  Topic: Interest only loan
sommerfeld

Replies: 2
Views: 320

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:51 pm   Subject: Re: Interest only loan
If she pays extra on the loan each month ( of the 1st 10 years) is the extra payment applied to the principal or does it go to the interest?
Typically it would go to principal. Double check the loan ...
  Topic: Wholelife just paid off big time!!!
sommerfeld

Replies: 28
Views: 3186

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:09 pm   Subject: Wholelife just paid off big time!!!
a rhetorical question:

what would you have recieved if the whole life insurance premiums, lest the cost of term insurance during the time when it was actually needed, had been invested conservative ...
  Topic: Don’t Let Your Mutual Fund Misuse Your Money
sommerfeld

Replies: 3
Views: 613

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:27 pm   Subject: Don’t Let Your Mutual Fund Misuse Your Money
Reserve Primary is still charging its hostages 12b-1 fees.
  Topic: Paying off my mortgage
sommerfeld

Replies: 33
Views: 2045

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:39 pm   Subject: Paying off my mortgage
You're right, I checked this month's statement and last. The total went down about $220. This is disgusting after 6 years all I'm paying to the mortgage is $225.
that's the annoying thing about long ...
  Topic: How much is too much in a stock
sommerfeld

Replies: 5
Views: 560

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 2:30 pm   Subject: Re: How much is too much in a stock
Many people say you should never have more than a small percentage in one particular stock.
To get to that % do you take your total assets or just those in the stock market?
% in stocks.
Others sa ...
  Topic: Would you refinance mortgage to max out 401k?
sommerfeld

Replies: 16
Views: 1199

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 2:24 pm   Subject: Re: Would you refinance mortgage to max out 401k?

Pro: Lower payment drastically for more flexibility
Pro: More tax savings by maxing out 401k
Pro: Inflation hedge with historical low mortgage rates
Pro: Easier to cash flow if you decide to rent ...
  Topic: Computer question...better to sleep or hibernate?
sommerfeld

Replies: 17
Views: 1604

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:25 pm   Subject: Computer question...better to sleep or hibernate?
Until recently, i believe NIMH were used in Hybrid cars like the Prius.
the 2010 Prius is still using NiMH. There are reports that Toyota is experimenting with Lithium Ion in prototype plug-in hyb ...
  Topic: Take-home pay, utilities
sommerfeld

Replies: 4
Views: 804

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:00 pm   Subject: Re: Take-home pay, utilities
Also ... any way of estimating utility bills in a cold place such as St. Paul, Minnesota?
When I lived in the Boston area, there was way too much variance between houses (due to size, age of construc ...
  Topic: A New Alternative to Mutual Funds
sommerfeld

Replies: 13
Views: 1631

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:44 pm   Subject: A New Alternative to Mutual Funds
on the other hand, i think it might be entertaining for bogleheads to set up one or more kaching virtual trading / play money accounts according to boglehead principles (buying, holding, and rebalanci ...
  Topic: Cash for clubbers
sommerfeld

Replies: 8
Views: 1153

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:04 pm   Subject: Cash for clubbers
It's an interesting question though, as new media continues to dominate. Will reporting for the sake of advancing one's own agenda continue to replace honest journalism as a search for the truth?
ra ...
  Topic: Cash for clubbers
sommerfeld

Replies: 8
Views: 1153

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:29 pm   Subject: Cash for clubbers
Ah, the high-minded free market journalism of the WSJ! They bravely expose these tax loopholes, but you "can't blame a guy for exploiting loopholes that Congress offers." Certainly.
so you' ...
  Topic: Galleon Investigation
sommerfeld

Replies: 18
Views: 1421

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 11:44 pm   Subject: Galleon Investigation
However, the impact of this on TSM holders should be miniscule, unless the SEC has been totally asleep at the wheel and unless there are many other bigger Galleons around.
Stories breaking in the bu ...
  Topic: No attractive investments anymore
sommerfeld

Replies: 76
Views: 7691

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:27 pm   Subject: Re: No attractive investments anymore
I can tell you that I will buy ultra short ETFs on both S&P 500 and Emerging Markets should the current rally continue and the S&P get to 1150.

Bad idea. Leveraged and ultra-short ETF's a ...
  Topic: No attractive investments anymore
sommerfeld

Replies: 76
Views: 7691

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:39 pm   Subject: No attractive investments anymore
Paying off my mortgage yields 3.74 after the tax deduction loss is accounted for. One of my best investments ever at present : )

And it's risk free.

Not if house prices fall, you lose your job ...
  Topic: Help me to understand this offering from my bank
sommerfeld

Replies: 14
Views: 1078

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sat Oct 17, 2009 9:14 pm   Subject: Help me to understand this offering from my bank
So, for starters, half of the investment is just plain old common stock in the bank. Stock in a single company. A single small company that probably doesn't trade on any organized exchange and can't b ...
  Topic: FDIC Issues - True ????
sommerfeld

Replies: 9
Views: 919

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:37 pm   Subject: FDIC Issues - True ????
A federally insured institution (FDIC for banks/thrifts, NCUA for credit unions) attracts deposits to some degree because of the $250,000 federal guarantee to deposit holders. Generally speaking, the ...
  Topic: Gold vs Gold ETF - any resource to understand?
sommerfeld

Replies: 33
Views: 2271

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:23 pm   Subject: Gold vs Gold ETF - any resource to understand?
I did read the prospectus online on their website.
It does not state clearly the assets that will be held in physical gold.
The description includes promises, futures and the sort to be considered & ...
  Topic: What allocation to hedge US hyperinflation risk?
sommerfeld

Replies: 12
Views: 1511

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:27 pm   Subject: What allocation to hedge US hyperinflation risk?
what about allocations to canned goods, MRE's, ammunition?
  Topic: B&H versus Timing with divs/int/ER
sommerfeld

Replies: 48
Views: 2151

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 7:11 pm   Subject: B&H versus Timing with divs/int/ER
How come people do this type of back-testing with historical data but not with some sort of Monte Carlo simulation? Showing that an investment plan would have worked over the last n years is not very ...
  Topic: How smart guys on Wall Street caused a financial collapse
sommerfeld

Replies: 15
Views: 1289

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:33 pm   Subject: How smart guys on Wall Street caused a financial collapse
Gee, I thought it's bank's job to assess the risk of the loans it's giving out (or buying as packaged securities) to people buying houses they could not afford during a housing bubble using 100% lever ...
  Topic: B&H versus Timing with divs/int/ER
sommerfeld

Replies: 48
Views: 2151

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:52 am   Subject: B&H versus Timing with divs/int/ER
rather than 'lump sum in at start of period', what do the returns look like if the investor starts with $0 and adds, say, $100 a week over the course of the period under study? that's more likely to ...
 
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