Bogleheads

Bonds Outperforming Socks For The Long Run

Keep in mind that socks are a lagging indicator, not only insofar as dress socks track employment but in that people tend to buy more exercise socks in go ...

Withdrawing an arbitrary percentage in retirement has never made sense to me. The only way to guarantee a fixed income stream is just to buy an annuity. Otherwise, I am partial to the idea of living ...

like Taylor said, I also get worried on days like this.

like maybe the fiat underlying all this stuff is simply continuing to be eroded.

Bingo. The euro gained 2% over the dollar today.

peter,

I did this analysis back in 2002. The bear market in 2000-2001 completely wiped out all the gains from the previous 20 years. BUT, I used a sampling of individual stocks in my tests. It ne ...

peter,

The only reason he gets those results is because his data set includes more bull markets than bears. However the statistical results are deceiving. When you actually run the momentum backt ...

I've done the backtesting on this one. During a bear market, the day after a down day has better chances of being up relative to the day after an up day, but during a bull market, it's the opposite: ...

I have a problem with this analogy of flipping a coin to stock prices. Price movements may be unpredictable, but that's not the same as 'random.' The plot of the next John Grisham novel is unpredict ...

Hear hear!

The 'long term' is really only of interest to theoretical economists.

I am aware of the main differences between individual bonds and bond ladders, but most of these seem to be for nominal bonds and for withdrawal phase.

If one wanted to invest in individual TIPS as ...

I came up with the following set of principles back when I was 15 or so.

1. Always pay cash.
2. Never run out.

(OK, I cheated a little on college tuition and a house) Wink

Brad

That a ...

Inflation protection. Gold is not unique in this respect, and it doesn't even do that great a job except over the very long term.

I'm not sure I understand this... The one time we had near hyper-i ...

With gold posts popping up like weeds, I'm providing this list as a public service. I like gold and silver. Precious metals play a valuable role on my balance sheet. There are good reasons to own it, ...

I'm not a bandwagoner--I have always thought having a little gold was a good idea, but those articles linked by OP are downright awful. How could he have thought posting them here would inform or ent ...

Success = the number of living offspring with your DNA. I know some very successful welfare recipients.

Everyone has a different opinion on where the sweet spot is. I like to buy a car at around 5yrs/75Kmiles and sell it at around 10yrs/150kmiles. Cheapest cost and fewest repairs. For me repairs aren' ...

The remaining 45% will be in foreign stocks & bonds, it may lose some value but won't be as bad. Even if I lose half the value in foreign stocks & bonds, it still means I have 1/2 portfolio ...

I think DCA is how some people deal with buyer's remorse. When you don't buy in to the market all at once, you don't kick yourself as hard when it goes down. Of course this only applies to people th ...

I will tip for takeout service if the server is a good-looking woman. I will also tip females more generously in other situations. I started doing this before I realized I was doing it. When I did ...

I'm not too concerned that I'll have trouble keeping myself out of poverty, and I don't believe that every last person on this earth has a right to be kept out of poverty by his fellow man.

" ...

richard,

People do often assume 50/50, but it's not just a heuristic--there is a good reason. 50/50, or more accurately even chances (eg. 33/33/33, 25/25/25/25, etc) is the implicit probability di ...

capablanca,

You got it. Well done.

By the way, I think your psychologist friend did not state the problem correctly. The versions I've heard before involve everyone being given a card and being able to see the other two cards (but not ...

I thought some of the brainy people here might enjoy this. This is a true story. This kind of thing doesn’t happen to me very often. Today at work, a psychologist came to me with a riddle, hoping t ...

... it seems that almost everyone on this forum (and elsewhere) is of the opinion that it's better to own individual bonds because they don't lose principal when interest rates go up (as bond funds do ...

If no one else will say it, I will. The place is 30 years old. That means it's time to replace the roof. This will cost a lot more than exterior work or a new coat of paint. Find out what their pl ...

I don't see the point. I already know whether I can beat the market.

Can we also talk about debt in terms of enslaving/murdering your future mini-me's?

Of all that has been said on this thread, those news articles are all 2001-2005ish. Nothing recent. They figured out how to manufacture perfect diamonds by 2003. How come the blackout on diamond ne ...

Yes, you are a sucker, but not the kind you think.

If you think you will EVER make a lot of money by working for someone else, you had better think again.

I'm sorry, but I partially disagree. If we are talking about Individuals having individual bonds on the sidelines . . . these can be comprised of I-Bonds or EE Bonds and therefore, there is no &q ...

If nothing you signed at closing mentions this fee, it sounds to me like SEP (someone else's problem). I wouldn't pay it.

The answer to this (recycled) question depends almost entirely on the mortgage interest rate. The most ardent "use the Roth space" advocate would quail if you revealed your mortgage rate wa ...

1) I'm sure my parents would have helped with college if I had asked, but I was a foolish young buck and way too proud to ever ask for help. I will provide minimum assistance to my kids if they ask f ...

You should deal with sales tax and the IRS as separate issues.

If you go to your state tax commission and tell them you want a sales tax license, they will ask how much you sell/year. When you t ...

Lol. Lol. Lol. Lol.

My line in the sand is $0. No paying for the privilege of paying for this cat. Take your special deals and return to sender, post haste.

My homeowner's rates with USAA went up substantially, but they sent me a big long explanation of why my TN state coverage minimums were increased in nearly every respect.

Are you so sure the market has rebounded? Maybe dollars are just a lot less valuable now than you suppose.

I think I agree with you but would be interested in hearing what others have to say. I just joined this forum not realizing that this thread was going on. I have 17k in c.c. debt and 19k in my roth ...

If the $/E ratio decreases because dollars increase in value, and the total stock market doesn't change, then the indices fall at the same time.

If the $/E ratio decreases because euros decrease in ...

If you give that some consideration it may change the attitude you both have toward the business.

If my attitude needs changing, then I want it to change. Please assist me by pointing out my err ...

Quit calling it a business, it is his/hers hobby. Can you live with the outlay on the hobby?

It may have been a hobby at first, but now we employ 7 people and have ~200 clients. It's a business.

raddle, your spouse seems to enjoy this business, right? Is it critical that the business make money? Your post does not indicate so.

Obviously, you have probably tried to pound this into spouse' ...

Sorry I wasn't clear.

Currently, we have three checking accounts:
1) Her Personal
2) His Personal
3) Business

I'm considering splitting the Business account into:
3) Business - Expenses
4) ...

The heartache has gone on too long and I'm hoping someone has an idea to help.

My spouse is self-employed, very talented, and very hardworking. The problem is he/she doesn't seem to have the fru ...

How about:
1) How much of your own money are you investing in this?

Rodc,

It seems we are in violent agreement.

Both house and mortgage go into the net worth calculation (balance sheet).

Neither are investments; neither go in the investment portfolio.

Stil ...

It is not an investment unless it generates income.

So, if you rent it out for $2000 per months, and rent another home for $2000 a month it is an investment, but if you live in it and thus do not ...

You haven't "broken even" until the your holdings are >= the sum of all contributions + inflation. My retirement account balance is higher now than it was at the peak, but I'm not yet ba ...

One way to think of the house is as an asset representing pre-paid consumption. That is, it displaces a cost (rent) that would otherwise need to be borne during your planning horizon. In an era wher ...

All loans, including mortgages, are negative bonds. What you do with the money you are loaned does not change this fact, regardless of whether you consume, save, or invest it.

A home is a prepaid ...