Bogleheads

If you believe in efficient markets and MPT you can't get a higher return without taking on more risk. Razz

Actually it would be more correct to say you don't get higher expected returns without acc ...

I think it is very hard to exploit those inefficiencies for people like you and me that only have a few tens of millions to invest. Smile

That'd be 10s of millions of cents Smile

when you make a ...

It is a bit silly to be claiming that anyone who bought on the way down and is selling now is selling at the bottom, given that we were at S&P 666 in March vs. near 1100 now.

I still think it' ...

It is a bit silly to be claiming that anyone who bought on the way down and is selling now is selling at the bottom, given that we were at S&P 666 in March vs. near 1100 now.

I'm not one for bold all-in/all-out moves. I've just been very slowly selling some equity funds over the last several months. I may have only reduced stocks from 50% to 48%, over that time and the act ...

The only way Sammy's trade can earn more money is if the CD has more risk be it duration, liquidity or inflation protection. Of course if you believe there is such a thing as a free lunch please ignor ...

I use VIPSX. None of the poll answers fit.

I've sold about 80% and also am substituting stable value, with a 4.6% yield. Started selling at 1.4% on the 10 year. I may keep a minimal amount even at ...

If you owned international in 2000, 2001, or 2002 and kept it, it certainly has helped, based on returns of VGTSX vs. VTSMX since then.

For 2008, it is a bit too early to say, IMO. But, VGTSX is a ...

my future SS payments can also be considered US based assets.

Though inflation in the US should reflect any decline in the relative value of the dollar and thus your SS payments would increas ...

It's not about bad-mouthing future prices because they don't fit some non-EMH theory...

EMH or not, future prices may be irrational and wrong. Again, in the article linked by the OP Jeremy Siegel s ...

Shiller could raise some capital and put his money (and other people's money) where his mouth is, and do so in a systematic well documented manner. A few decades later Shiller Investment Bank woul ...

The comment from the Vanguard website is referring to historical backtesting, but making the statement in the present tense (drives me crazy).

thumbs up

What they should actually say is som ...

This roughly means that you uncover scientific truths not by experimentation, but by thinking about what should be true based on applying formal logic to what you (think you) already know about the wo ...

The theory estimates that the top 35 U.S. CEOs were overpaid by about 129 times their ideal salaries in 2008.

Therefore, a 99% tax rate for those income levels would seem to be the way to go. This ...

Jeremy Siegel:
The EMH...states that the prices of securities reflect all known information that impacts their value. The hypothesis does not claim that the market price is always right. On the contr ...

While yields of both TIPS and nominal Treasuries are set by the market, it is the government that determines the supply of each. The supply would presumably have some impact on prices/yields.

Is the purpose of the government's issuance of bonds primarily to assist individuals in their retirement planning or is it to finance the cost of government at the lowest possible cost to the taxpayer ...

Some posters have brought up the concern regarding the low interest rates paid by Wells Fargo on cash balances. It's quite simple to avoid earning a paltry rate of interest by placing an order to p ...

I am seriously considering the small cap foreign ETF from Schwab.

Currently I have a small amount in T. Rowe's international discovery, thinking I'd someday consider moving this to the small cap f ...

I am pretty sure they still include REITs in their forecasts, they just do not publish that portion any more. If you take a look at second page of 4th quarter 2008 forecast, it says:

Please note: ...

...the Vanguard Long Term Investment Grade fund is pretty close and, in fact, is compared with a version of the same index.

It used to be called long term corporate...they changed the name but I ...

-1%

Many years ago, in the days before TIPS existed, I said to myself, "if treasuries ever offer over 7% again, I will pour a lot of money into them". I gave 8% as my answer, ...

money market fund expense ratios fell, in part because management companies had to absorb expenses to avoid pushing share prices below $1. The average money market fund yields just 0.04% after expense ...

However, Vanguard's long-term fund has an ER of nearly half that, at 0.22%.

and only 0.16% for admiral.

I do use a fund even for government bonds, I don't think the extra cost is really much. ...

Isn't the concept of "value at risk" derived from MPT? Didn't the application of VAR nearly destroy the world economy, when it stopped working?

I did not intend to imply that one would hold only stocks, that was shorthand for...

I would think that the "it's efficient, but irrational" concept would not really support the idea that ...

I would think that the "it's efficient, but irrational" concept would not really support the idea that one should buy and hold the entire stock market at all times.

Interestingly in Malki ...

MPT says prices are always right at any current time.

MPT says no such thing.

First... The "prices are always right" shibboleth is an, often deliberate, misstating of the Efficient Ma ...

I've always thought that a better way to look at long term records is what was used in a couple books by John Merrill that I read long ago. He looked at returns over a market cycle...from a stock mark ...

Investment grade bonds were offering equity-like returns at the yields of a year ago. They have, in fact, generated equity-like returns. For example vanguard long term investment grade has a 12 month ...

The net impact to the Federal government seems no different than the conventional muni bonds.Tax exempt munis are bought by those in high tax brackets, eg. 35%. Because of this they pay a lower intere ...

Measuring the amount you "need" to retire is too nebulous.

I may target a similarly nice lifestyle in retirement. My target or goal may be $150,000 per year, but I can certainly live on ...

That doesn't make sense to me. If I have a 20% chance of having a shortfall, it doesn't mater if the shortfall amount is $10,000 or $100,000. I still have a 20% chance of running out of money.

Real ...

Take a look at Shiller's data, he has dividends listed in his stock market data excel file at:

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

A single person would pay more than what they are claiming the FMV is for a non-dependent child (or a domestic partner). I understand what you are saying, but single employees are not restricted to be ...

In 2010, my employer is offering health insurance coverage for non-dependent adult children under age 27 and domestic partners. I have two "kids" that are not dependents, I would have to pay ...

Ah, I had I misunderstood lines 19-22, where the $100-120K phaseout is determined for the old hope credit. I was thinking they were applying that to the amount on line 17.

Thanks, guys

I am confused about where this tax credit phases out. This: http://www.irs.gov/formspubs/article/0,,id=177996,00.html
indicates it phases out between $160K and $180K for joint filers.

But this d ...

Interesting that 10 years ago nobody using the Gordon model or any other predicted negative returns for the S&P 500 index or even that bonds would outperform it.

Well, not quite 10 years ago, ...

...I guess I'm not too surprised to see a shift given the market gyrations of the last couple of years....But the point remains regardless of minor details.

But is it minor? If you allocate accordi ...

If one simply holds the market at cap weight (which means about 60% stocks and 40% bonds)...

Actually, I believe you have that reversed it's more like 40% stocks:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/i ...

According to this 2 year old analysis, Jeremy Granham had a forecast accuracy rate about 27%.

If you want to take CXO Advisory Group's word over Bill Berstein's that's okay with me, are you gonna t ...

Mr. Bernstein's interviews are always informative...

As are his writings, such as when he wrote:

The wise investor ignores the economy (macrobabble), market sentiment (animal spirits), and espec ...

I am curious how people on this forum feel about the predictive potential of the above variables as well as if there are any others. To narrow the focus, I'll say that we are looking at the perform ...

Take that same ounce of gold in year 2009 what would it buy? A very nice retail mens suit (think Hickey Freeman, etc.)

Aren't suits museum pieces, like those fiat currencies, yet?

Well if not ...

Balancing 'live for today' with planning for the future has always been a goal of mine.

The thing is "live every day as it it were your last" or "live for today" or "live ...

What movie are you I assume nisiprius was referring to The Bucket List, starring Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bucket_ListYes. It had its moments but it was an ...

When I saw the movie, what struck me sharply was that the central theme was fulfillment through tourism. Most of the things they were doing were passive activities, requiring no real investment of the ...

I hadn't even noticed the equity vs. fixed part, as I was only pointing out the discrepancy between the relative market weights of corporate bonds and treasuries compared to their weights in VBMFX.
...

Isn't the point of holding the Total Bond Market (TBM) the same as holding the Total Stock Market?

I recently read that the index is not that representative of the bond market, that it underweight ...