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  Topic: Investor Manifesto: Title Question
dave.d

Replies: 27
Views: 1340

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:08 am   Subject: Investor Manifesto: Title Question
Bill is liberal but he is no communist. His remarks about Jared Diamond and North Korea were to me the funniest part of this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTUZXwQwUJM

(Looks for the slide sho ...
  Topic: Add an "equity valuation factor" to rebalancing?
dave.d

Replies: 14
Views: 891

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:18 am   Subject: Add an "equity valuation factor" to rebalancing?
I see what I do as a middle course between DRiP Guy and Adrian. I make absolutely no attempt to predict short-term market direction, and presume that I know only an approximate, likely long-term retu ...
  Topic: Add an "equity valuation factor" to rebalancing?
dave.d

Replies: 14
Views: 891

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 10:19 pm   Subject: Add an "equity valuation factor" to rebalancing?
I use a valuation factor in setting my target stock allocation for rebalancing. I consider PE10, Gordon equation, and bond yields, especially the 5-year TIPS. At normal or average valuations, I woul ...
  Topic: stock bid/ask question
dave.d

Replies: 2
Views: 262

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:40 am   Subject: stock bid/ask question
I always understood these as traps for anyone dumb enough to place a market order against them. If you fell for them, I'm not sure if you could get the trade busted or not!
  Topic: gld or gdx-related funds
dave.d

Replies: 13
Views: 870

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:38 am   Subject: gld or gdx-related funds
The low of GDX on oct 27, 2008, is $16.37.
I never get these things right, but I bought in that day. You cats are all way late to the party! In fact, I was just leaving (rebalancing out).
  Topic: I'm calling the top [ish] for gold
dave.d

Replies: 56
Views: 3405

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:23 am   Subject: I'm calling the top [ish] for gold
I hold small amounts: about 1% of total assets in GLD, and 2.5% of equities in GDX which I was fortunate to add last fall. I own the GLD not because I expect it to do well over time -- I don't. Over ...
  Topic: Impersonating a surgical patient--possible?
dave.d

Replies: 13
Views: 1056

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:08 am   Subject: Impersonating a surgical patient--possible?
This would be extremely dangerous, wouldn't it? What if they rely on your medical records about allergies, or give you the wrong blood type? You could be dead.
  Topic: VG will not cancel the order
dave.d

Replies: 97
Views: 5355

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:41 am   Subject: VG will not cancel the order
You still could... just enter your transaction near market close.
Because Vanguard will not permit cancellation of orders, I enter practically all of my open-ended fund orders between 3:50 and 3:55pm ...
  Topic: What is the simplest most basic thing to read re: investing?
dave.d

Replies: 26
Views: 1568

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:07 pm   Subject: What is the simplest most basic thing to read re: investing?
I'll second bob90245's recommendation of Mike Piper's book, Indexing Made Simple.
  Topic: Charles Schwab Free ETF's Trades (House ETF's )
dave.d

Replies: 12
Views: 1312

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:31 am   Subject: Charles Schwab Free ETF's Trades (House ETF's )
The prospect of a possible 12b1 fee is enough to scare me off of these. What if it goes up, and THEN they add the fee? In a taxable account, you would either have to pay the fee, or pay the capital ...
  Topic: Anyone have a PCRA through Schwab Network?
dave.d

Replies: 11
Views: 743

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:40 pm   Subject: Anyone have a PCRA through Schwab Network?
I don't have a Schwab PCRA but it sounds like you are being offered the full set of funds available to a normal brokerage account at Schwab.

The Schwab ETF's will be a good option, if available, at ...
  Topic: Basis / Converting Vgd Funds to ETFs
dave.d

Replies: 30
Views: 1577

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:25 pm   Subject: Basis / Converting Vgd Funds to ETFs
You cats recommending Admiral Shares for everything must be a lot richer than I am, to meet $100k minimums. I manage a variety of smaller trust accounts and have my own funds broken up into enough hi ...
  Topic: Charles Schwab Free ETF's Trades (House ETF's )
dave.d

Replies: 12
Views: 1312

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:00 pm   Subject: Charles Schwab Free ETF's Trades (House ETF's )
Will this put pressure on Vanguard to follow suit, now that brokerage operations are in house?
  Topic: National Public Radio and Vanguard...
dave.d

Replies: 51
Views: 5007

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:49 pm   Subject: National Public Radio and Vanguard...
Today I was very surprised to hear a Vanguard advertisement on the radio during the Glenn Beck show. I am not a fan of Beck (far from it) and was upset to hear Vanguard advertising on his show. Beck ...
  Topic: Morningstar's Congressional Testimony re Target Funds
dave.d

Replies: 10
Views: 885

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:47 pm   Subject: Morningstar's Congressional Testimony re Target Funds
Morningstar provides a cogent and helpful explanation of the harmful impact of high fees. I sometimes wonder if most funds would charge lower expenses if they were required to quote their expenses ov ...
  Topic: The Pandemic-A Stimulus for Emergency Docs
dave.d

Replies: 80
Views: 5193

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:31 am   Subject: The Pandemic-A Stimulus for Emergency Docs
Flu, presumably H1N1, is raging through my kids' schools in central Va. School and kids' events of every type are being affected: every birthday party is either cancelled or has people missing or is ...
  Topic: TIPS Reopening
dave.d

Replies: 5
Views: 1279

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:40 pm   Subject: TIPS Reopening
I think the number to focus on is the Yield to Maturity, shown in your listing as 0.78% although rates rose modestly today.

http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest- ...
  Topic: deciding between FSTFX and VWSTX
dave.d

Replies: 7
Views: 632

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:16 pm   Subject: deciding between FSTFX and VWSTX
The answer is, move your money to Vanguard yourself, and you can choose between Short-Term, Limited-Term and Intermediate Term without paying $75 (19 bp of $38k) everytime money goes in or out.

Fid ...
  Topic: 10-20-40 Years - Total Markets vs 3 Factor Slice/Dice
dave.d

Replies: 88
Views: 6757

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:46 pm   Subject: 10-20-40 Years - Total Markets vs 3 Factor Slice/Dice
Trev, you keep saying that a cap-weighted portfolio is not diversified.

A cap-weighted portfolio IS diversified!
Not fully, not to all available risk factors that can generate independently-varyin ...
  Topic: Cheap insurance option for a young healthy adult?
dave.d

Replies: 11
Views: 956

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:33 pm   Subject: Cheap insurance option for a young healthy adult?
I'm in my mid-40's and concluded after extensive study that high-deductible was the only way to fly. Otherwise I think you are paying for hypochondriacs who go to the doctor because it's free. I swi ...
  Topic: GDX versus GLD
dave.d

Replies: 6
Views: 716

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 11:00 am   Subject: GDX versus GLD
I hold small allocations of both, and observe helpfully that the time to add them was LAST fall. Wink
  Topic: Broken "" Key...Pease Excuse Any Typos in Posts
dave.d

Replies: 40
Views: 1803

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 10:05 pm   Subject: Broken "" Key...Pease Excuse Any Typos in Posts
Such iterary manipuation! Just ike Emer Fudd's vocabuary was ceary seected to highight his speech probem.
  Topic: TIPS Shifting: ST TIPS vs. ST Inv Grade vs. ST Treasury
dave.d

Replies: 30
Views: 3526

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:30 pm   Subject: TIPS Shifting: ST TIPS vs. ST Inv Grade vs. ST Treasury
I'm willing in principle to shift, but can't convince myself that a 1.5% guaranteed real yield for 10 years is such a bad deal, what with the Fed's printing presses running overtime and all. I bought ...
  Topic: Best way to tilt international SCV?
dave.d

Replies: 13
Views: 1392

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:16 pm   Subject: Best way to tilt international SCV?
Size is more of an issue with the ETF since it leads to a large spread (lack of liquidity). The nice thing about the open-ended fund is you can get in or out at par, with (almost) no questions asked ...
  Topic: Best way to tilt international SCV?
dave.d

Replies: 13
Views: 1392

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 11:03 pm   Subject: Best way to tilt international SCV?
GWX by design has no value tilt; it's similar to VSS. DLS and DGS are probably the best options at the moment, unless you want to keep money at Schwab. PDN is an ETF using the same strategy as the S ...
  Topic: Shiller PE10 breaks new ground
dave.d

Replies: 139
Views: 24012

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 6:49 pm   Subject: Shiller PE10 breaks new ground
...and therefore, applying the regression from here:

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/10/updated-campbell-shiller-regressions.html

...P/E10 suggests a real return of 4.66% per year over the ne ...
  Topic: What to do with 400K?
dave.d

Replies: 19
Views: 1908

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 1:27 pm   Subject: What to do with 400K?
We are extremely conservative... We are uncomfortable with taking huge risks in stocks... I am going to take the leap and buy the VG target retirement 2030.
This makes NO sense. OP should read one o ...
  Topic: Rallying S&P 500 Never Cheaper in Europe on Dollar
dave.d

Replies: 4
Views: 807

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 3:25 pm   Subject: Re: Rallying S&P 500 Never Cheaper in Europe on Dollar
I am not some kind of brilliant market timer. ... And so I went 100% International in my equities, gaining a rising currency boost.
Unfortunately, that DOES make you a market timer. If you said you ...
  Topic: Defered annuities: what's the catch?
dave.d

Replies: 10
Views: 1095

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 3:16 pm   Subject: Defered annuities: what's the catch?
Like a 401(k), if you hold stocks in a variable annuity you can magically convert capital gains into ordinary income, eligible for taxation at a higher rate. Plus, IIRC, any money that comes out of a ...
  Topic: What's YOUR FinaMetrica "risk score?"
dave.d

Replies: 87
Views: 4136

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:32 pm   Subject: What's YOUR FinaMetrica "risk score?"
Got 52, estimated 55. Answered a couple of questions collectively with my wife, so my individual score would have been slightly higher.
  Topic: TIPS
dave.d

Replies: 12
Views: 1792

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 10:19 am   Subject: TIPS
Halfway in-between livesoft and bmb: real value invested in TIPS is completely safe over time (the maturity of the bonds), assuming CPI is a valid measure of inflation and is not manipulated in the fu ...
  Topic: Time: Why It's Time to Retire the 401(k)
dave.d

Replies: 53
Views: 4184

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:48 pm   Subject: Time: Why It's Time to Retire the 401(k)
Note that defined benefit plans are back loaded. So years 20 through 30 are worth a lot more then years 1 through 10.
This always struck me as the great advantage of the 401(k): it allows you flexibi ...
  Topic: PE10 predicitive power
dave.d

Replies: 30
Views: 1293

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:20 pm   Subject: PE10 predicitive power
Just for the record (i.e., so I can find this thread a year and a half from now using Google), DeLong's post linked in the OP refers to these as Campbell-Shiller regressions.
  Topic: Is it possible to go int'l + value without Japan?
dave.d

Replies: 3
Views: 433

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:49 pm   Subject: Is it possible to go int'l + value without Japan?
iShares has an ETF (ticker TOK) which tracks something called the Kokusai (spelling?) index which appears to be World ex-Japan. It's about 50% U.S. but the ER is only 0.25%, so perhaps that's not a b ...
  Topic: "10-yr bull market" ahead....
dave.d

Replies: 24
Views: 3304

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2009 9:42 pm   Subject: "10-yr bull market" ahead....
I just don't understand what the "stock market recovered by 1936" meme is all about or where it is coming from or why people keep saying what is so plainly not true. Do people really want to ...
  Topic: Opportunistic Investing
dave.d

Replies: 16
Views: 1590

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 4:28 pm   Subject: Opportunistic Investing
Like psteinx, I dabbled in large-discount CEF's starting late last year, with good results although I never invested more than a few percent of my assets in them. (BTW, some of the threads on CEF's i ...
  Topic: Small Cap, Small Cap Growth, Small Cap Index
dave.d

Replies: 4
Views: 784

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 3:30 pm   Subject: Small Cap, Small Cap Growth, Small Cap Index
The 5-year and other more recent performance figures don't show this discrepancy. It appears from the Vanguard website that Small-Cap Index switched from the Russell 2000 Index to the MSCI 1750 Index ...
  Topic: No quarterly distributions for VIPSX/VAIPX
dave.d

Replies: 65
Views: 5449

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:01 pm   Subject: No quarterly distributions for VIPSX/VAIPX
Short-term TIPS will have a closer correlation to inflation, if that is what is desired, but of course the real yield is lower. PIMCO is promoting that as one of the virtues of their new short-term T ...
  Topic: VTSMX today 9/23/09
dave.d

Replies: 14
Views: 1256

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:41 pm   Subject: VTSMX today 9/23/09
Would it not be appropriate for Vanguard to adjust the reported daily change to reflect the distribution? I actually had thought that was done.

I understand perfectly how the distributions work, b ...
  Topic: Tax Act - Incorrect tax figured [turned out to be IRS error]
dave.d

Replies: 54
Views: 4773

PostForum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)   Posted: Mon Sep 21, 2009 8:18 pm   Subject: Tax Act - Incorrect tax figured [turned out to be IRS error]
After speaking with the IRS for over 1 1/2 hours, it came to light that someone at the IRS indeed did the "Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet" incorrectly and all the forms f ...
  Topic: ETFs that track FTSE Developed Ex US Index?
dave.d

Replies: 12
Views: 1163

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 9:47 pm   Subject: ETFs that track FTSE Developed Ex US Index?
This may be the closest thing to what the OP is looking for, developed international with Canada, but without emerging markets:

https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=GWL

But of course, ...
  Topic: Article reviewing retail investors' performance since Lehman
dave.d

Replies: 0
Views: 245

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:05 am   Subject: Article reviewing retail investors' performance since Lehman
http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/107726/fighting-off-the-bear.html;_ylt=AsM1NzfBJ0Pr2zYRzTWbBDy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhMTF2bzBvBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNwZXJzb25hbEZpbmFuY2UEc2xrA3BlcnNwZWN0aXZlcw--?mod=re ...
  Topic: Portfolio change since 12 months ago?
dave.d

Replies: 46
Views: 2924

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2009 7:07 am   Subject: Portfolio change since 12 months ago?
Up ~2%, net cash flow close to zero, projecting from a 6/30/08 figure and allowing for a 2.5% decline in stocks between there and 9/11/08.
  Topic: Equity style rotation
dave.d

Replies: 524
Views: 135931

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 10:37 pm   Subject: Equity style rotation
Also this seems related.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=56470&t=01001529370998141183
  Topic: Replacing bloatware
dave.d

Replies: 33
Views: 2832

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm   Subject: Replacing bloatware
OpenOffice as a replacement for MS Office. Been using OO on my home computer for a year with no problems. Still haven't made the jump on my work computer, as I rely pretty heavily on Outlook, but ma ...
  Topic: How much Transaction fee % is ok per ETF purchase?
dave.d

Replies: 4
Views: 455

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:43 am   Subject: How much Transaction fee % is ok per ETF purchase?
Just to compare -- paying $8 commissions, I generally try not to trade less than around $4k or about 20 basis points.
  Topic: Jeremy Grantham on market timing
dave.d

Replies: 66
Views: 6562

PostForum: Investing - Theory, News & General   Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:43 pm   Subject: Jeremy Grantham on market timing
For what it's worth, Grantham's predictions 9/30/08 and now don't appear inconsistent to me. Then he was predicting ~6%/year real returns from his "high quality" category over 7 years. As ...
  Topic: Need help with muni bonds
dave.d

Replies: 14
Views: 1302

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 10:54 am   Subject: Need help with muni bonds
High Yield is an absolute no-go.
Agreed in principle, but the Vanguard's "High-Yield" tax-exempt fund is not really high yield at all. The average credit quality is single A which is inves ...
  Topic: Need help with muni bonds
dave.d

Replies: 14
Views: 1302

PostForum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments   Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 10:21 am   Subject: Need help with muni bonds
I would say that long bonds are not rewarded
I'll differ with ValueThinker at my peril, but only modestly and in this limited context. The yield curve in muni bonds is steeper than for other types o ...
  Topic: Toxic Pop Ups at Seeking Alpha Website!
dave.d

Replies: 8
Views: 990

PostForum: Lounge - Consumer, Leisure, and General Interest   Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 3:54 pm   Subject: Toxic Pop Ups at Seeking Alpha Website!
Watch out, I think they can mimic the "X" in the upper right so that it really does something else. I generally press CTRL-ALT-DEL and then terminate the process from the task manager. IIR ...
 
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