Bogleheads

This is the type of creature that the PP is designed to protect against.

Hysterical. Blowing coffee out my nose...

Does this make HB Yoda?
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Backing up a tad, I think PRPFX got more po ...

From what I understand the fund PRPFX is not a perfect proxy for Brown's PP concepts but isn't too far off.

Looks like 1986 to 2000 was pretty poor for gold and PRPFX.

I'm not sure how PRPFX ...

On the flip side, if someone chose 1990 or later as an entry point, they would have been coming out ahead using a PP over 100% equities. Now you obviously wouldn't expect a PP strategy to outperform ...

Roy wrote:

I hope Yanks get Lackey and not rely on the kid pitchers to start (what idiocy with the JOBA handling). This series proved (what we all knew)— that veteran stud pitchers (like Lee, CC ...

Without Damon, the Phillies might have been World Champs right now. I guess they aren't resigning him.

Damon is a tough hitter at tough moments. I think Yanks will offer an increase for a 1-year ...

Nice to have a baseball thread, even one with this title Smile

So, if you could mandate any changes, what would they be? Some of mine are (and I'm a Yanks fan):

• Hard cap; hard floor.
• No ...

Jayson Stark of espn.com wrote:
No sour grapes here. The Yankees were better than the Phillies. However, the Yanks definitely have an advantage, spending 500 million more than the next closest comp ...

IMO, the problem with not having a salary cap in baseball is that even though these big spenders may not win every year, they are still affecting the overall outcome of the smaller markets. If the Ya ...

1) No one knows what is going to happen tomorrow or the next day.
2) Buy and hold is the portfolio style that is most likely to succeed for most people.
3) There are exactly 4 basic economic climate ...

Well, I am sure you used the same argument from 2001-2008 (and from 1979-1995) when the Yankees did not win. If the effect is so direct, as implied by the "their last purchase" comment, why ...

I will tell you why I would never have Larry's allocation. Inflation would batter him really badly. All those bonds would wilt. Those under capitalized small value stocks would decline so much you ...

It has been my experience that there is only one first time for a disaster. No matter how shocking or awful, there is only one first time. The conclusion that one can draw from this observation is t ...

I have some bad news for Swedroe - when a global recession hits, investors dump the riskier equity asset classes first and to a greater extent then less risky ones like developed markets large caps. N ...

And below a reply from Larry that I saved a while back. He addresses TE there.

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larryswedroe

Posted: Fri May 01, 2009 5:23 pm

------------------------------------------------------- ...

My cash/ST bonds are in VFSTX (ST Corporate), BSV (ST Bond ETF w. 70% U.S. Gov't bonds), VFIIX (Ginnie Mae fund) and a Schwab Bank MM account. I guess if there is another panic/flight to safety I'll b ...

I have realized with the recent bear market that I had probably too high of a equity allocation in my portfolio. It was a standard slice and dice 60/40 allocation similar to Mr. Merriman's suggestion ...

So we don't have Armageddon; we don't have inflation, so gold can maybe go slightly higher. But those people who delude themselves that gold can go to $1,500 or $2,000 are just talking nonsense. The f ...

I started using the PP and PRPFX in 2004.

I have stayed with the Permanent Portfolio since 2004. Yet, I cannot completely fight the urge to tinker and over-engineer. Thus, I have a small vari ...

2) Optimization goal: minimize risk for a given level of return.

In traditional ports I accept the tilting to size and value. Interesting that the "Risk Parity-esque PP" , above, uses a ...

Has anyone taken a look at the "risk parity" approach to asset allocation and applied it to the PP?

Hi, Lbill,

How might this alter the PP? I tried to see what this was about. One pd ...

indexers is also based on we know nothing about what will happen tomorrow.

Hi, Facmit,

Yours is an important point as there are indeed other philosophies that posit "know nothing" as ...

The side benefit of the PP is that it really changes your vision. ...First, your focus is on steady returns that outpace inflation not mythical long term stock returns.

Second, you learn to embr ...

If there are any among us who have done the PP and decided it wasn't for them, please speak up. I am not aware of anyone who has tried the strategy and been disappointed.
.

I read discussions on ...

I'm glad A Rod got rid of his post-season slump, finally. Looks like he handed it to Ryan Howard.
Sam I Am

Sam,

Yeah, if that had been AROD with all those Ks, it would be bad on him here. Now ...

Nice win, but thought the series was tougher than it looked. Phils are tough 1-8, have youth, and will cruise for next 2 years through NL East and likely the League—like a 12-year-old in a playpen. ...

Help me put today's activities into perspective.
Budd

Ron is right. Just business as usual.

Bogle, Swedroe, et al, have great advice on this. Unless one can watch the markets and commentato ...

Frankly, I didn't read all the repilies. so many Embarassed

(it would nice if someone can post a summary Very Happy

)

I have two simple questions
1) what are the disadvantages for the this permanent prof ...

For anyone who is wondering if there is anything like this anywhere else on the internet, to my knowledge this is by far the most detailed and informed discussion of the PP anywhere.

If a person ...

Can anyone summarize the data that leads some to want to modify PRPFX? Was said data built on total return numbers?

PRPFX isn't going to provide as much deflation protection as the HB PP because it ...

Guys,

Been reading about the "unusual" high returns for Gold in the years mentioned above. While it is tempting to view astronomical numbers as "outliers," I am not convinced t ...

Highlights include:

"The obvious appeal of Bodie’s 90/10 strategy is that there is an absolute floor on portfolio losses that a decline in equities can cause, even in the worst market condit ...

"The boring, 3-fund TSM portfolio posted above (and here, using the same stock fund at 25%) is just one type of "conventional" portfolio that has performed competitively (based on CAGR) ...

That portfolio shows zero or slightly negative CAGR through the decade of the 1970s. Inflation killed it. I agree over the long run there are many portfolio allocations I've seen that can post similar ...

I think a stock/bond portfolio in the 1970's had essentially 0% real CAGR after inflation. The past 10 years from 1998-2008 are also looking pretty bad for a standard stock/bond portfolio in terms of ...

Once you begin to see it as a package, however, the concept begins to make more sense.

Very clearly yes, and one must view any portfolio as a whole. But perhaps this is especially true of the ...

As Nassim Taleb points out in his parable of the Thanksgiving turkey, past performance is not necessarily predictive of future results.

Some people will say "fine, governments come and go, but ...

Here is my take: the only people I ever hear talking bad about the PM ETFs are people who have a vested interest in people not using them...

Certainly, gold in hand is better than gold in an ETF, b ...

Last year, it was LT treasuries. Everyone was convinced the 25 year run was over last summer. They were also convinced of the same thing THIS summer.

People have been waiting for gold to correct ...

"As mentioned in the book and many times elsewhere, the main reasons a risk premium should be demanded by holders of equity include the increased probability of loss, difficulty in estimating fut ...

Regardless of past data, we have reasons grounded in economic logic that the equity premium will always exist. Bonds and stocks are by no means risk equivalents.

Hi, Derek,

I agree, except that ...

For folks such as myself that are very conservative savers (i.e. cash assets) that are doing well but would like to start re-balancing our portfolio to the stock, bond, cash, and gold split when do we ...

"Never, ever, extrapolate past returns into the future."

"The most imporatant asset allocation decisiion is the overall stock/bond mix. Start with the 'age=bond allocation' rule of ...

Or The Fail-Safe Fund?

I like that a lot, Harvey.

One of the things the name should do is convey the intent of the strategy. There are two directions with that. Its permanence is one, as it d ...

I am amazed that a rival fund has not been started with the pure 4 X 25 Gold, Cash, Stock, Bond that Harry Browne settled on.

Me too, except for what to call it. It would be far less costly as muc ...

Most investment strategies will usually have someone that has tried it and found it lackingFrom the limited amount I've seen, many historic followers of PP lost interest during the 1985 to 1999 bull r ...

8. I still think that a person who did 90% PRPFX and 10% EDV and rebalanced to 90%/10% annually would have a pretty good thing going.

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PP purists will note that PRPFX breaks several of HB's ...

This is a great thread.

To echo a question Tex brought up awhile back...has anyone begun the HB PP—and then stopped (why?). And, if one has read the information and tracked the action of this ...

Of the years listed above, only 1974, 1975, 1979, 1980 and 1981 had levels of inflation that I would consider crisis or near-crisis levels. In other words, the great age of inflation was really more ...

Before, we'd constantly read about the decision making process at D&C and how it virtually guaranteed superior, risk-limited results. I'm not even being critical of D&C, and I didn't hold the ...

First, there is nothing special about the admiral shares except slightly lower expenses. Second, the equities in Wellesley are very concentrated, which can lead to hit-or-miss performance. Possibly, ...