Bogleheads

He just means that ''fully reflects" needs a definition. (Obviously, a hypothesis with undefined terms is not testible.)

That's precisely the point. You can test it. But you can't test it wit ...

I too have been wondering about this in regards to the significance of bid/ask spreads and premiums over NAV and how they compare to the price you'd get with an open-end index fund.

As The Finance ...

You don't understand. I am suggesting proving one of the alternatives. Proving one of these thousands or millions of claims.
You've lost me. You said EMH was empirically verifiable. Now you want ...

You don't understand. I am suggesting proving one of the alternatives. Proving one of these thousands or millions of claims.
You've lost me. You said EMH was empirically verifiable. Now you want ...

if a theory is conjoined with subsidary hypotheses, there is the danger of rejecting true statements:

Exactly. And by definition, if we want to test EMH we must conjoin it with a subsidiary hyp ...

Actually, a method that was reliable would prove that a market was not efficient. If the method kept working after it was revealed to the public, then that would be a counter-example against the EMH. ...

An interesting article regarding the probability of coin flips: http://www.codingthewheel.com/archives/the-coin-flip-a-fundamentally-unfair-proposition

A lecture given by Eugene Fama regarding the ...

Oblivious

Does Bernstein specify inflation adjusted withdrawals? We have always planned to take a fixed 3% (letting our withdrawals vary yearly depending on the performance of our portfolio). It se ...

Therefore, a proof that the price is a highly imprecise predictor does not refute the EMH.
What would refute the EMH?

Nothing. That's the whole "joint hypothesis problem" that gets menti ...

I like the way Bernstein put it in his new The Investor's Manifesto:

I still know of no better risk analysis tool for retirees under the age of 70 than this simple narrative: At a 2% withdrawal r ...

Excellent interview, Taylor. I'll be sharing it on my blog this week. Smile

Not to be flippant, but I think the idea is exactly the same as saving for retirement: Diversify, use an appropriate asset allocation for your goals, minimize costs (including taxes!), and buy & h ...

Here's a post from Rick (quoting a book by Gus Sauter) regarding tax implications of Vanguard's ETF structure:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=40143

From the perspective of borrower, here's a review from a blogger I know:

http://www.debtfreeadventure.com/2009/08/lending-club-my-review-of-social-lending/

From the perspective of lender, here's ...

Does this fixed nominal rate have to be denominated in US dollars?

This paper:

http://www.tdainstitutional.com/pdf/Opportunistic_Rebalancing_JFP2007_Daryanani.pdf

...has some interesting things to say on the matter. Their conclusion is that rebalancing daily is ...

I think no shareholders is the answer. I think this explains why Fidelity, another privately-owned company, has always struck me as being "not as good as Vanguard, but not too bad, really." ...

Just ran across this thread. DSInvestor did a great job laying out the differences.

I just wanted to point out though that for sole proprietors (or LLCs taxed as sole proprietorships) SEP contribut ...

Just referenced this thread on my blog and noticed that some of the links have gone bad.

Here's the new url for the first paper:

http://www.tiaa-crefinstitute.org/pdf/research/research_dialogue/ ...

I don't know how I didn't find out about this until today, but Fama and French apparently have The Myth of the Rational Market.

"The book is fun reading, but its main premise is fantasy. Most ...

And Mike, I just left one for your book as well. Cool

Thank you! That's a great review. Smile

I noticed that your book has eight 5-star reviews on Amazon.com out of eight reviews, Mike. Congrats on ...

I shared my thoughts on the new Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning on my blog today: If you’re starting to think seriously about getting all the retirement planning specifics nailed down, then ...

I may be mistaken, but I believe the last line on page 155 should state that Social Security and Medicare taxes total 7.65% rather than 7.85%

Edit: Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place. I j ...

My wife and I stick with Hulu and rentals from Redbox ($1/night and they have a pickup spot 1.5 blocks from where we live).

We haven't had network TV since moving to Chicago (2002) and we've never ...

TFB's article above is absolutely great. Take things into your own hands rather than trusting your HR dept to give you the correct answers.

On a related note: [url=http://www.ici.org/pdf/rpt_09_dc_ ...

Ok. Let me ask question from another direction. Is it not true that if you are 59 1/2 the only issue of taxes/penalty is if you have not had a Roth ACCOUNT for at least 5 years; i.e., the wording on ...

kaneohe, I think the order of distributions is a perfect chance to incorporate wording from the publication. Here's the publication's wording. (I think I'll likely just use it instead of my own.)

- ...

I believe early distributions of conversion get penalized only if they came from the taxable part of the conversion. Otherwise, what would be the point of ordering the conversion as taxable part fir ...

Conversions money withdrawn within the 5 year window are not taxable if over 59.5, thats not what your chart says

Sorry, I didn't mention it here, but it's mentioned in the article itself: The char ...

Eh, aren't there certain investment partnerships, like Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), that still have tax due from income (K-1? UBTI?) even if the trusts are contained within a Roth IRA?

Hmm.. ...

kaneohe: Thanks for bringing up conversions. Trying to figure out how to fit that into the flowchart... (It might just have to be a paragraph afterward explaining how they work.)

EO: Penalty free, ...

Hello Bogleheads. Smile

I just posted a flowchart on my blog that's intended to help determine whether a Roth distribution is taxable and/or subject to the 10% penalty.

think I got the logic right, ...

He does. His username on Twitter is @Dull_Investing

http://twitter.com/Dull_Investing

Even if you accept that short-term momentum exists and is a large enough premium to capture, necessary preconditions to the original argument, then the cost advantage of index funds means you should s ...

Hi Andy.

Thanks for the reply and for providing me with some talking points for further discussion. Smile

I have to admit though, I'm still not entirely convinced as to why such a strategy would wo ...

I recently wrote a guest post for Wealth Pilgrim (a personal finance blog written by Neal Frankle, a CFP in California). My post was a reply to an earlier article of his in which he stated that he inv ...

100% non-deductible

By that do you mean that there are no other IRAs that include pre-tax contributions?

correct

Then there should be no liability on the conversion. (The significance of whet ...

You're a quick learner. You're now ahead of the majority of the population when it comes to investment knowledge.

So now the test: Do you think the STAR fund would be an acceptable investment? Smile

100% non-deductible

By that do you mean that there are no other IRAs that include pre-tax contributions?

That depends on whether or not this is your only IRA. A post from one of my favorite blogs explains the math:

http://www.goodfinancialcents.com/2010-traditional-ira-to-roth-ira-conversion-tax-rule ...

Hi Lotto.

For a 6-year time frame, it's probably best to go with something rather conservative (unless you're perfectly OK with a very real possibility that you lose money over those 6 years).

I ...

[url=http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/2009/09/should-i-convert-my-traditional-ira-to-a-roth-ira/]I'm on the side of conventional wisdom on this one if you're under age 59.5.

If you haven't reached ...

This item has John Bogle on it which makes it intrinsically sweet and worth 5 stars by itself, but once I tried indexing, that's when the magic happened. I grabbed the book and walked from my trailer ...

Updated the chart this morning. Thank you both for the information. Smile

OblInv: your blog does not have WF as a free broker with free trades. I have 2 IRAs with them and have paid no fees whatsoever.

Thank you. I'll add Wells Fargo to the list. The relevant informatio ...

Is there a forum post about Wells Fargo versus Vanguard? What makes their ETFs a better choice of VG?

My understanding is that the suggestion wasn't about Wells Fargo ETFs, but rather to hold ETFs ...

I recently wrote [url=http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/2009/09/discount-brokerage-ira-comparison/]a blog post a while back comparing several discount brokerage firms.

From what I learned while look ...

I agree with retiredjg: Invest for retirement, and save for a home down payment. But keep the amounts separate (at least mentally, if not in separate accounts).

The investments suitable for holding ...

Anyways, the math is complicated by the change in the CDSC each year.

Precisely.

If the percentage were constant, then the fact that the balance is changing would be irrelevant. (At least, the e ...

If you wait, there is a good chance that the fund values will go up, so you will be paying a percentage of a higher amount.

Shouldn't the percentage be all that matters? (Unless I'm misunderstandin ...