Bogleheads

This is one reason which gives me pause on the PP. Long term stock and bond performance versus cash and gold?

http://www.screencast.com/users/Twocents/folders/Jing/media/3b4f2797-e5e1-4793-9fda-f ...

I suspect your confusion is unfortunately more a reflection of my relative ignorance with long term treasuries. 30 year treasury yield rates are relatively low from an historical perspective, although ...

Problem is, if both gold & Dow reach parity somewhere between 2000-5000, there's going to be a lot of hurt going around on Main Street.

The hurt is greater than many people realize.

In comin ...

Clive,

What you are describing may or may not work, but it seems to me that it would be far riskier than the traditional PP.

A BRIC investment could see one of the quartet explode into a revolut ...

This is, IMO, what happens in the scenario you describe above. Exter's Liquidity Pyramid:

Wonk,

I dig that pyramid, but can you find a smaller picture of it so the browser window doesn't stretc ...

I had asked earlier regarding creating a ladder in long term bonds at time of initial investment, and through the response I got, I assume the answer would be no from HB's perspective. This is a litt ...

Wonk,

That's an interesting take on my ShamWow metaphor.

I was actually thinking in terms of a central bank trying to stop a credit contraction following a debt-fueled asset bubble collapse--i. ...

MarcMyWord,

I agree with you that PRPFX and VWINX are not similar in composition, though they are similar in being relatively conservative funds with good track records.

If a person can't bring ...

As I have posted in the past I continue to try to find the perfect "set and forget" portfolio, and I look and look, but I haven't found it yet. The closest I've come to is Vanguard's Wellesl ...

Can somebody talk me down off this ledge?

See Japan. They did everything we are doing and their bond yields collapsed. It makes no sense, but that's what happened.

In a deflationary spiral int ...

If Roubini's carry-trade crash does come about, would cash and short treasury's be about the only place to hide? I'm wondering to what extent the assets in the PP would be affected. Equities, most com ...

I commonly read at least 20% has been historically optimal, and find myself wondering. Any reference for the 15% MT?

What you get for the historically optimal allocation depends on what goals you s ...

MediumTex wrote some time ago he has 15% of the stock portion in his PP allocated to non-US equities based I believe on research that this was historically optimal. (My apologies in advance if my rec ...

It is characteristic of many things in our world that the solution is more complicated than the problem. I see this tendency in many approaches to investing. The PP is a refreshing alternative to th ...

For those not well-acquainted with Harry Browne's overall philosophy and writings, it is important to note that the permanent portfolio is actually just the investing component of a much larger and co ...

This brings up a real problem then with no real clear solution. Owning gold bullion entails far too many risks. If a quarter of my portfolio is in a safe in my home, and someone absconds with it, I ju ...

Is a PLR something a retail investor can or should try to obtain, or am I just obsessing about nothing?

You're WAY into "obsessing about nothing" territory.

Coming from an obsessor lik ...

How confident can we be that the IRS will honor this private-letter ruling from the IRS to any and all investors of gold holding ETFs in retirement accounts?

PLRs can only be relied upon by the par ...

Why, in your opinion, would fund management deviate from the PP 4 x 25 allocations? Does it have anything to do with tax efficiency? Is there some other explanation?

PRPFX's deviation from HB's con ...

If I could find a Gold ETF that is tasked at a capital gains rate rather than at an income rate, I'd be very happy. MediumTex, you said one of the Canadian ones falls into this category. Any ideas whi ...

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There seem to be severe tax consequences for owning Gold ETFs if I am understanding this story from CBS marketwatch correctly. Any comments from the board?

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/g ...

Even PRPFX seems to be an investment that people often make without fully understanding the underlying philosophy and strategy.

Can you elaborate further on this comment? I am contemplating an in ...

MT,

If you are a retirement plan attorney, I'd hate to see what the invoice would be to the bogleheads board if you were billing all of your hours on these posts! You, Craig and many others contri ...

Thanks MediumTex. I'm just trying to play devil's advocate before I decide whether or not to jump into this.

I have a couple of other questions for you.

You have mentioned several times to s ...

The resulting chart when you click on 10 years looks very favorable for PRPFX. FSAGX looks even better. But then when I click on Maximum it shows 1986 to current. Now VWELX looks best by quite a lo ...

On the flip side, if someone chose 1990 or later as an entry point, they would have been coming out ahead using a PP over 100% equities. Now you obviously wouldn't expect a PP strategy to outperform ...

Article: "If stocks tank, shouldn't gold soar?"

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/11/02/If-Stocks-Tank-Shouldn%E2%80%99t-Gold-Soar.aspx

Here is a quote from the link ...

Here is an outstanding market commentary that provides a strong endorsement of HB's core thesis--that the future is un-knowable--from Howard Marks at Oaktree Capital Management.

LINK

His thinkin ...

Hi Medium Tex,

Couple of questions...

If you can only put $5,000 or $10,000 per year into I series bonds, how can you get this up to 25 percent for the cast portion of the Permanent Portfolio if ...

I'm not talking about a return to a gold standard, I'm simply talking about a scenario where we have a twenty or thirty year bull market. It's not an impossible scenario. It's certainly unlikely thoug ...

Sorry to obsess over PP, but I have yet another question for the board. What if the market sustained a long term bull market? I would imagine PP wouldn't do too well would it? We don't really have any ...

Hmm, but what about tax considerations? Gold wouldn't be a big deal if I got an ETF, but the zero coupon treasuries would be an issue. And since the government matches what I put in the TSP up to a ce ...

Now for another question: As a government employee, how do I construct this portfolio using the TSP? There's no long term bond fund, but I do get to put my cash in the G Fund which seems to be superio ...

I noticed that the PP declined in two separate years. Can anyone say why it went down those two years? And if it did go down those two years, is it possible to have those types of conditions become lo ...

Calomiris argues that frequent episodes of failure are tied to government guarantees such as various forms of deposit insurance or similar incentives for risk-taking."

In light of the quote ab ...

I enjoy reading and listening to the Australian economist Steve Keen. He has been clear and coherent in his analysis since the financial crisis began.

The link below takes you to the November 6 p ...

Clive,

Great post. Very provocative.

Clive,

Can you discuss what using the AIM methodology might look like when applied to PRPFX, starting with 80% PRPFX and 20% cash?

That would be interesting.

The main thing I'm unclear on wit ...

Why - when it happens - stocks, long treasuries, and gold will all go down together.

I find it ironic that half the world seems convinced that the dollar is dead and the other half is convinced tha ...

It has been my experience that there is only one first time for a disaster. No matter how shocking or awful, there is only one first time. The conclusion that one can draw from this observation is t ...

Considering the pattern outlined above, I think that the market panic that gripped the world starting late last year was a once in a generation event. I believe that if the market started down from wh ...

I guess if there is another panic/flight to safety I'll be in trouble. As most of this is in taxable accounts I guess I ought to be looking for an ETF to replace it all with. Any suggestions appreciat ...

Tom is a retired commodities trader and was an avid Harry Browne follower for many, many years. In brief summary, Tom no longer endorses the Permanent Portfolio and believes that Harry Browne himself ...

MT - Do I get to take a capital loss when I spend my dollars and they've lost 10% of their purchasing power? Second question, if I have my gold coins under my mattress how the heck is the IRS going t ...

I just know this has been asked and answered but I'm too lazy to scroll back through this massive thread to find the answer (it's all I can do just to keep up). If you hold gold coins or bullion, are ...

I would love for gold to go down because that would mean that the integrity of the economic system was improving. It might happen at some point. Obviously, gold won't go up forever, but guessing whe ...

My question is this : How would that stable value fund fit into the PP - is it more like bonds, or cash ? Or should I switch out the stable value to a bond fund (if there is one?).

"Stable Val ...

MT, thanks for the thoughts on the taxable/non-taxable. I had not given much thought to the idea of having each asset class inside the non-taxable but went with the general concept of the bond portio ...

I see the unmasked resemblance in your avatar now MT

Nice!