Bogleheads

Clive,

What you are describing may or may not work, but it seems to me that it would be far riskier than the traditional PP.

A BRIC investment could see one of the quartet explode into a revolut ...

Not wishing to offend, I'd like to first clarify that I'm not being critical of the PP, but instead looking for opinion's as to why I might be totally mad Rolling Eyes

From my observations PP is a consta ...

Can you ask the question again? I'm not sure I follow it.

If you were setting up the PP all at once, it seems like you would purchase one 30 year bond (or the longest maturity available) initi ...

I have to admit that the idea of holding a 30-year treasury makes me nervous. If interest rates move up significantly both stocks and long bonds will get trashed.
Is Gummy implying that long dated ...

It is nice to have a mechanical means for selecting parameters needed for mechanical investing methods. If you do this then you can test your methodology with historical data. One idea for setting the ...

BTW, for those who wonder what the point is of the PP's cash holdings, I think Lbill's post is helpful.
If you scan forward for all start years from 1972 to 2008 comparing total stocks gain versus ca ...

http://www.online-stock-trading-guide.com/image-files/1929-1932-stock-chart-s.png

Put in a wider context

http://www.jfholdings.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/dow_29.gif

Mentally block out the 1925 to ...

thanks for that perspective on life in Britain. Living in Texas, I am only allowed to get a tiny peek at how others around the world live.

I see the unmasked resemblance in your avatar now MT http ...

What's the sense in Britain today about Brown's almost perfect call of the bottom in the price of gold when he chose to sell half of the UK's holdings for around $282 an ounce in 1999?
If I recall co ...

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Speaking of asset bubbles, here is something to consider about the Swiss franc as a hedge in PRPFX against dollar devaluation: According to the CNBC story linked below, the external debt to GDP ratio ...

An observation.

Events leading up to high gold prices tend to be progressive. As such gold gains (and declines) somewhat cluster.

If you use a timing method of - review once each year and if the ...

Historically when the gold price divided by the XAU (Gold mine Index) ratio rises to 5+ signalled a good time to move out of gold price trackers into gold mines and when the ratio declined to 4- swit ...

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For de-accumulators, I factor a 5% real return of the PP over time, so a 5% WD rate should be fine
If you factor the average of all time periods Wonk, 2.3% after inflation sustainable average income ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/169212-focusing-on-precious-metals-and-farmland

To use some terminology that I came up with it sounds like you are suggesting a "5th order" system because I classify Meb's Quantitative Asset Allocation as a "4th order" system in ...

Buying the portfolio with the lowest historical return is like switching from a momentum system to a value system. There is a paper that shows that instead of choosing between value and momentum, you ...

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I should clarify that I'm not picking on PP as I do actually hold a PP (as one part of the whole). Instead I've tried to highlight the risks that some may overlooked.

As an example an investor w ...

Hi there, I created a site so that you can do this yourself. After you build the portfolio you can copy the URL and return to it later. (I thought people on this forum would be super excited about it, ...

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Here's similar data, but for the UK

Year start to 2008 end year Shares Gilts Cash Gold Average
1972 4.18 3.31 1.11 2.66 2.82
1973 4.05 3.76 1.13 1.60 2.64
1974 5.61 4.51 1.18 0.41 2.93
1975 8. ...

The following data, although not very presentable, is in a better format to cut and paste than had I uploaded a image of the data.

The data was constructed by taking each of PP's component part yea ...

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If big losses in one or both of these assets scares you, if you want an extra margin of safety you have to employ a left fat tail defensive strategy. Buying call options is one way to do this.
Synth ...

The Great Depression was the result of too much debt in the 1920s that could never possibly have been repaid
Roaring 20's MT ! Buy stocks they only ever go up type 1990's bubble creation mentality
...

Or too much Gold...LT bonds frighten you?...Interested in hearing the why nots of those who believe they understand this durable concept and do not use it as suggested by Harry Browne.
Hi Roy. Prese ...

Here's another 1972 to recent run, this time blending emerging markets with gold and LT bonds and with relatively low draw-downs.

http://ih.fotothing.com/101120.gif

Some buy-highers might rush o ...

A 50/50 stock/bond blend is normally considered as being modest return for modest risk.

Blend that 50/50 with a PP and you have 37.5% in each of stocks and bonds, 12.5% in each of gold and cash.
...

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I recall reading a study recently comparing the results of going "all-in" with your porfolio allocation vs. scaling in over time. .... While you are sitting on the sidelines, your capital is ...

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RE: Rebalancing
Ultimately, this isn't a science so there is no right formula
Rebalancing consensus appears to be towards 50/50 odds overall. If you reduce out of an investment that continues its u ...

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up about 7% this year even though LT Bonds have taken a beating.
LT Bonds were a bit of a saviour at the 2008 year end time point.

http://ih.fotothing.com/99469.gif

Looking across other periods ...