Search found 151 matches

by LawProf
Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Law School Debt: Is It Worth It?
Replies: 115
Views: 10662

Re: Law School Debt: Is It Worth It?

Based on the OP's update, definitely go to Kentucky. This is not a close decision, even setting aside the extra debt needed to attend Vandy. If you want to practice in a small town in Kentucky, you're going to want a lot of referral work and that comes from your contacts. Going to Kentucky will expose you to a heck of a lot more lawyers who will end up practicing in Kentucky than Vandy. Those connections will have a tremendous value all their own (e.g., maybe one day who will want to be a judge and those relationships could matter). You want to be known to your classmates all over the state as the guy to go to whenever something in that town comes up. In basically every situation, if you want to practice in a small town in a state, you shou...
by LawProf
Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Georgia 65k Retirement Income Exclusion allowed for Roth Conversion
Replies: 13
Views: 2377

Re: Is Georgia 65k Retirement Income Exclusion allowed for Roth Conversion

I just became aware of all this. After considering a move to N Ala. So now I am very interested in a move to N GA. We will have Soc Sec (fully exempted) and my Military and Civil Service (FERS) Pension (exempt up to exemption limit). As to the $65K per person. So with my wife & I, (using easy numbers), total exemption would be $130K. If my pensions total $45K, does that mean we can withdraw up to $85K from our Retirement IRA's with no GA State Tax Liability? Is that true regardless of which one of us is getting the pensions and/or whose IRA we withdraw from? It seems to be. One other question, Do withdrawals from a Roth IRA have to be counted into the Exemption Limits or are they already considered Tax-Free, just like for Federal Incom...
by LawProf
Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Law School Debt: Is It Worth It?
Replies: 115
Views: 10662

Re: Law School Debt: Is It Worth It?

Totally depends on what you want to do and where you want to do it. For example, if you want to be a law professor, the odds would say you need to go to Yale, Harvard, Stanford, or Chicago. If you want to clerk on the Supreme Court, basically the same. Exceptions in both cases (including myself), but those are the odds. If you want to work in DC, NYC, Chicago, LA, or San Francisco, then a T14 school adds a ton of value in terms of advancement, probably enough to pay back the added debt. But say you want to live and work in Tennessee, then incurring the extra debt to go to Vandy instead of the University of Tennessee isn't going to be worth it. Same for Georgia. Go to UGA over Emory or Vandy or Duke or even Harvard. The big firms in Atlanta ...
by LawProf
Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions on where to move?
Replies: 135
Views: 10937

Re: Suggestions on where to move?

I'd avoid Athens. The District Attorney is not prosecuting all the crimes and has had trouble hiring for other prosecutors. There's been a tick up of homelessness in downtown, too. Long-time residents are starting to get annoyed. Traffic is a problem, too. A few suggestions: (1) Lookout Mountain. This is right next to Chattanooga and would give you the option of living in Georgia, Tennessee, or Alabama depending on your wish. (2) Chattahoochee Hills, Georgia: This falls under the umbrella of Atlanta, as both are in Fulton County. Except Chattahoochee Hills is legitimately rural, the only part of Fulton County that can make that claim, maybe the only part of metro Atlanta depending on how one counts both ruralness and metro ATL. Lots of hiki...
by LawProf
Thu Feb 01, 2024 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone wished they had worked a few more years before retiring?
Replies: 89
Views: 14725

Re: Anyone wished they had worked a few more years before retiring?

I’m a big believer that our main “job” after we turn 50 is taking care of our physical health — daily movement of at least 10k steps, weight training, cardio, stretching, balance exercises. So if you have time to do that and keep working, keep working if you want. If not, stop working and get started on your new job.

Healthspan should be the investment focus of the financially secure.
by LawProf
Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Probably a naïve issue. Pay mortgage or invest.
Replies: 63
Views: 5791

Re: Probably a naïve issue. Pay mortgage or invest.

Paying off the mortgage is not rational, but it is reasonable.
by LawProf
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 139942

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I really want to hear an update from tomtoms.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5860

Re: Market is irrational

Don't fight the Fed.
by LawProf
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 139942

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

barberakb wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:36 am
LawProf wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:59 pm Anything from the landlords out there? I'm interested to see what is happening on the ground in terms of tenants making their payments.
What are you asking?

I mean this all basically started in March, and its still March...

So March rent should have already been paid. Not much to report :confused
I talked with a friend who owns a property management company and he said he has been inundated with calls from tenants saying that will not be able to pay their rent. Another friend who owns commercial property says that a tenant simply shuttered the business and left. I'm wondering if this is happening everywhere.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 156
Views: 21677

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

I'm still waiting for it to hit 36,000.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 379
Views: 48739

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Boglehead Logic:

(1) No one knows nothing

(2) No one can predict the future

(3) This time is not different
by LawProf
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 139942

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Anything from the landlords out there? I'm interested to see what is happening on the ground in terms of tenants making their payments.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Still feels to me like people are underselling the scope of what is happening in terms of the effect on the market. The news is really, really bad and not all of it is baked in. Plus, (a) more people are getting nervous about things and will thus "panic" sell and (b) more people are going to be forced to sell because they simply need the money.
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 158434

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact. If something was 100% clear then you would have sold everything and scraped together everything yo...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 9886

Re: Is it really that bad?

I expect very bad news out of NYC in the next week.
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 158434

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact. It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 158434

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Vision wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, vast majority of the time. The part where it fails is the certitude that you can never know if a crash is coming. This situation is one of the rare instances where this knowledge was possible. Governments were well ahead of the markets here, and if you followed what the governments were doing, knowledge of a coming crash was obvious before the fact.
by LawProf
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 139942

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Challenges in landlording:

(1) Does mortgage relief apply to landlords?

(2) The movement against evictions grows. Political risk tends to be an underappreciated risks of having tenants.

(3) College students are demanding to be released from their leases.

(4) Presumably real estate values are going to fall with the downturn in economic activity.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 139942

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I really want to see how some of the assumptions on this thread play out in the current crisis.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 5091

Re: Why not liquidate?

If you're worried about losing more money, are convinced the market will go down, and will hate yourself if the market does exactly as you think it will do, sell. But don't sell as some type of cute market-timing maneuver.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Things are bad. Based on anecdotal evidence from friends, commercial tenants are walking out on leases, residential renters are calling property management companies to inform them they cannot pay rent, and mortgage payments are being missed. Whole industries are sick (airlines, tourism). Other industries figure to follow (automotive, anything discretionary). A lot of businesses are going to fail, and we could be entering another real estate crash. And we've just started this thing. The market still has further down to go.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Uk choosing different strategy to minimize economic and market dislocations:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... virus.html

It will be good for future situations to see how different strategies play out this time around.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 10816

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

We're now getting into the potential Black Swan phase of this thing. Pandemics are foreseeable and a resulting stock crash from one, too. But the chain reactions of this thing are where the dangers now lie and what those chain reactions are, if any, still remain to be seen.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should people STOP investing in favor of boosting their emergency funds?
Replies: 83
Views: 6537

Re: Should people STOP investing in favor of boosting their emergency funds?

Times like this show why paying off a house can be a good decision, even if such a move is not economically-maximizing when markets keep going up and up. Having no debt is a nice cushion to weather storms like this, plus a paid off house serves as its own emergency fund via a HELOC.
by LawProf
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

There has been a lot of negative vibe regarding our car culture and single family suburban homes here in the USA. But there may be a silver lining these days. I imagine it is far easier for suburbanites to self isolate and certainly easier to independently commute to a testing site (once thy are established!!!###). Of course this assumes basic supply chains (food/fuel) can be maintained during the crisis. Apart from our biggest cities, the population density is the U.S. is low compared to most of the world, and we don't really use public transportation like other countries. That should help us relative to the rest of the world. Hopefully, though, Italy's aging demographics make that country an outlier and the rest of the world can weather ...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 17538

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Leverage works until it doesn't. The debt mindset in this country is out of control and magnifies all risk.

Common threads around here: (a) should I pay off my house? or (b) can I afford x amount of house? No one-size fits all answer exists to these questions, but having a paid off house makes market drops and economic uncertainty much easier to both digest and ultimately survive.

More debt = more risk. Period.
by LawProf
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 4769

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

Yeah, you should’ve seen it coming. 1. I saw the way it moved by following news (anyone could have). 2. I read that Hong Kong and Japan closed schools (anyone could have). So I added 1 + 2 together and got 3. 3. I posted on February 27th that schools would close here (anyone could have). Now, that doesn’t tell you what the market would do, but it is plenty of information to consider. For the record, I did not sell because I was already bond heavy after 2000 and 2008. I have continued to purchase primarily equities every two weeks, have rotated bonds to stock twice already in small bites, and have plenty more ready to go. I’m all indexes and dumped all corporate for STT and STTIPs where I could. I gave up gains with a conservative portfolio...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

canadianbacon wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:21 am
LawProf wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:04 am Brazil's president has the virus. Was with Trump last week. This is a worldwide pandemic, plenty of room still to fall.
This is not yet known. Bolsonaro's press secretary has it. Bolsonaro is being tested.

Hit my rebalance point so went back to 70/30.
My bad. Some media outlets jumped the gun on Twitter.
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Brazil's president has the virus. Was with Trump last week. This is a worldwide pandemic, plenty of room still to fall.
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 47346

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

LawProf wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:17 am Prediction: 40%.

I think it could easily go lower, but I think the government will step in to buttress the market at some point. We live in a flat world now, and this virus threatens to seriously disrupt that. Centralization and interconnectivity provide great efficiencies and benefits, but they also make the risks bigger. We're about to experience some of those risks. There are a lot of chain reaction, political risks in play, too. People who are saying that the virus is no big deal/flu kills more people every year have their heads in the sands.

The U.S. hasn't even really started to panic yet. It's coming.
I'll stick with 40% or S&P @ 2036.
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

this was one of the rare times when the data was obvious and NOT factored into the market for weeks. Some people read the situation and knew we were going down. good for them. This. Seemed completely obvious weeks ago. I moved everything to cash, only time I've sold equities in 20 years. It was one of those rare events where you could see what was happening in other countries around the world and know with certainty that it was coming here, too, and that the market would crash as a result. This is incorrect. Nothing is obvious. It could have gone the other way. Check out the Stocks in free-fall thread that was started in 2011... Read through it, and find all the posts from people in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019... w...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

this was one of the rare times when the data was obvious and NOT factored into the market for weeks. Some people read the situation and knew we were going down. good for them. This. Seemed completely obvious weeks ago. I moved everything to cash, only time I've sold equities in 20 years. It was one of those rare events where you could see what was happening in other countries around the world and know with certainty that it was coming here, too, and that the market would crash as a result. Great foresight. When do you buy back in? Don't know. I didn't do it as a market timing move to sell high and buy low, but rather as a move against a risk that scared the heck out of me. Nothing that is happening has yet to alleviate my fear, and I think...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

sambb wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:10 pm this was one of the rare times when the data was obvious and NOT factored into the market for weeks. Some people read the situation and knew we were going down. good for them.
This. Seemed completely obvious weeks ago. I moved everything to cash, only time I've sold equities in 20 years. It was one of those rare events where you could see what was happening in other countries around the world and know with certainty that it was coming here, too, and that the market would crash as a result.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:19 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:51 pm Call me an alarmist, but it seems to me this could actually cause a depression rather than a recession.

If people can't work, shop, or leave their homes, how is the economy going to function? If money isn't flowing into the economy, how are employers going to make payroll, how are consumers going to pay their bills, their debt? Seems like a deflationary spiral (or possibly stagnation) to me.
Alarmist.

Novice investors are either unaware or alarmists. There are a few exceptions.
Tom Hanks just announced he has the Coronavirus. The panic is about to get real, financial and otherwise.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:51 pm Call me an alarmist, but it seems to me this could actually cause a depression rather than a recession.

If people can't work, shop, or leave their homes, how is the economy going to function? If money isn't flowing into the economy, how are employers going to make payroll, how are consumers going to pay their bills, their debt? Seems like a deflationary spiral (or possibly stagnation) to me.
The NBA just pulled players off the court and cancelled a game with a packed arena because of Coronavirus fears. We’re about to really enter the panic phase and the market will dive more depending on the federal response.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 29677

Re: The end of cruise ships

I'd worry about bankruptcy risk. I'm rather naive and uneducated on such big corporate matters, but isn't bankruptcy actually a protection for shareholders? Isn't it basically telling bond and other debt holders, "Hey, sorry, but we can't pay. See ya later!"? I get it's not that simple... bankruptcies ruin reputations, result in destructive restructuring and/or splitting/selling off assets, hurt credit ratings, etc. But my point is, doesn't a business declare bankruptcy when it has no better alternatives? At that point, shouldn't shareholders logically consider it a positive move? I get that investment values often follow emotions rather than logic, and it is a sign that the business is sort of giving up on its ability to recover...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 29677

Re: The end of cruise ships

I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

BoggledHead2 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:43 am
LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:19 am Merkel said 70% of Germans might get the virus. I think that would have to affect Europe's economy in a bad way and push markets everywhere down.
and if 70% get it, 8/10 of them will be fine to work as their symptoms will resemble the common cold - if anything

It’s a very small portion of the population that should be genuinely concerned ... and yet, everyone’s running around like their hair is on fire

I shower 2x a day and admittedly wash my hands more than ever ... and that’s it. This is not some flesh eating zombie apocalypse- it’s a very very bad form of the flu
Italy is shutdown. The National Guard has been called out to contain one New York city. If 70% of Germans get this thing, the economic effects are going to be real.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Merkel said 70% of Germans might get the virus. I think that would have to affect Europe's economy in a bad way and push markets everywhere down.
by LawProf
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I’m beginning to think that the federal government will never allow us to have a bear market again, or at least die trying to prevent that.
by LawProf
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Governor Cuomo creating a containment zone around New Rochelle with the assistance of the National Guard. That cannot be good for stocks. At some point they're going to close the trading floor, I imagine.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684620

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

...Who knows? Maybe now it is overreacting rather than underreacting. Time will tell. +1 That is my bet. Mister Market comes to your door every day and offers you a different price for the same goods as yesterday and the day before, depending on his mood. He has bipolar syndrome, sometimes wildly optimistic, other times depressed. It's not really worth wasting time trying to understand his mood swings. t's just the way he is. Sometimes he's irrational. The problem is that sometimes he's rational and he's offering goods at a different price because there has been a change in the quality of his goods. The trick is telling which situation we are in. The real trick is realizing you’ll never be able to tell which situation you are in and acting...
by LawProf
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

People are not panicking. A run on bottled waters and toilet papers -- no cost, common sense precautions that provide great upside should you have to stay at home for a couple of weeks -- is not panic. Governments around the world are panicking. But people in the U.S. are still, on average, pretty ho hum. When that changes, the market will drop even further.
by LawProf
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304666

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Went to our doctor to get some vitamins yesterday and saw huddled in the waiting room corner a mom with two kids. All wearing surgical masks, looking miserable, and they could not stop coughing :shock: Kept my distance, quickly got my stuff, got the heck out of there and bathed in Purell before getting into the car. I wonder if there are even test kits to test them... also people saying "wash your hands" that is only half of the fix. They're preaching social distancing in Seattle. No one else including staff were wearing masks or any form of PPE. Hope everyone is okay. Freeway was empty Thursday and Friday; radio pundits were surprised it was so light. I think this is why the market still has room to fall. Social distancing is co...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Toilet Paper Hoarders = Shoeshine boy stock tips?
Replies: 41
Views: 3332

Re: Toilet Paper Hoarders = Shoeshine boy stock tips?

One of the bigger economic ripples of COVID-19 is going to be people missing work...that means supplies we always take for granted might not be hitting the shelves with regularity. Toilet paper is just one of those items that sucks to be without when the time comes. Buying it in bulk now is possibly alarmist, but it's a great hedge against logistics slowing down at zero risk if you're not being hit by price gouging, because you'll eventually use what you bought in a panic if worst doesn't come to pass since it's not like the product expires. This. Why not buy it? Low cost, something you don't want to be without, something you could run out of during a lengthy self-quarantine at home, something you will end up using anyway even if virus fea...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I once held a stock that went to zero
Replies: 23
Views: 2507

Re: I once held a stock that went to zero

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:56 pm
LawProf wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:54 pm I once had a stock that went to zero
The market suffocated it with a pillow
I looked up and down
My money couldn't be found
And Jack Bogle became my new hero
Clever. I'll demonstrate my ignorance... it this some form of Haiku? :beer
Limerick. There once was a girl from Nantucket ...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I once held a stock that went to zero
Replies: 23
Views: 2507

Re: I once held a stock that went to zero

I once had a stock that went to zero
The market suffocated it with a pillow
I looked up and down
My money couldn't be found
And Jack Bogle became my new hero
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

A big reason for the market tanking is trust. When you have a leader in business ,gov’t, a school or whatever field, that is known to not tell the truth, it creates a huge problem when a crisis develops that needs real truthful information. Not great for dealing with one’s life savings. The market will eventually recover and I just hope that people who are not as sophisticated as the bogleheads do not panic and sell at losses. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like a lot of downturns (length/magnitude) would be avoided if people behaved like bogleheads Instead the fight or flight response and emotional overreaction hits markets and any selling triggers more panic - and more selling This is when we either: Do Nothing and Ignore / Buy More Very tr...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 397290

Re: Coronavirus and the market

EDV (Vanguard Long term Extended Dur Treasury) up almost 8% as I type this. :shock: Vglt up 5.76%. I think the panic is only now starting. The new few months will, unfortunately, be very interesting, and probably not good. I am not sure what is "Panic" and what is simply rational repricing of the earnings prospects of major companies - in an environment where GDP growth is meaningfully suppressed by the Covid 19 virus outbreak. If consumers choose not to spend their money, companies choose not to invest, and supply chains are disrupted, then the fall in profits could be quite dramatic. But I agree there could be both a fall in the market due to falling earning prospects, and a diminution of speculative fever and previously too hi...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304666

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Why do you say "Good Lord?" "It’s possible that COVID-19 will be similar to a bad flu year b ut there are a number of indications that it will be very much like the 1918 Flu Pandemic . To put that in perspective, the 1918 flu did not end civilization as we know it but it was the second-deadliest event of the last 200 years. It is likely that people you know will die from COVID-19 ." "There will be significant economic disruption: a global recession is very possible and there will probably be significant shortages of some products. The healthcare system will be hit the hardest. The number of people who are likely to get sick is higher than our healthcare systems can probably handle. Daily life will be impacted in im...