Search found 4 matches

by SpartanlyPanly
Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Skating Where the Puck Was"
Replies: 79
Views: 18593

Re: "Skating Where the Puck Was"

wbern wrote:Stay the course:

Thanks for your comments. Then we both have testable hypotheses; I'm willing to bet that GLD, now that it has made gold an easily tradable commodity, will provide little shelter during the next downturn.

Needless to say, I was referring to risky assets, not riskless ones, whose correlation will go to -1.0 during a crisis.

Bill
Could you please elaborate which assets are riskless, i.e. a guarantee for not losing any money.
by SpartanlyPanly
Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Skating Where the Puck Was"
Replies: 79
Views: 18593

Re: "Skating Where the Puck Was"

wbern wrote:WJO:

Well, yet one more Boglehead has demonstrated they don't need the booklet, having reached the conclusion that I make, which is that the best opportunities:

1) Lie well outside the publicly traded markets, and
2) They involve real work, which is presumably what you're trying to avoid in retirement.
3) Carry with them a gargantuan amount of nonsystematic risk.

Bill
if true, then the worst opportunities :
1) are within the public traded markets/total markets
2) involve no work and no thinking, i.e. automatic indexing
3) carry with them a gargantuan amount of systemic risk (this is a redundant point because identical to 1) )


food for thought.
by SpartanlyPanly
Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The anti-Taleb reviews Antifragile
Replies: 197
Views: 35395

Re: The anti-Taleb reviews Antifragile

I like Talebs books.

Paradigm shifting to my life and made changes accordingly.
by SpartanlyPanly
Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging
Replies: 37
Views: 3333

Re: Value Averaging

A few questions on Value Averaging: Do you think value averaging will increase returns or merely decrease risk? (although these are admittedly two sides of the same coin) Would you value average your portfolio or the portfolio's individual components? I feel either method could pose its own theoretical problems. Does long-term value averaging make sense for most people? ad 1. I don't know. Depends a lot on how one defines and/or measures both. Ad 2. I value average my portfolio. With the individual components, the (cash) management becomes very soon very complex. Ad. 3. Probably not. As you can see from this thread, almost no one applied it but many have an opinion, some even without having read or understood the Edleson book. A more impor...