Search found 208 matches

by mlewis
Sun Feb 05, 2023 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard website succumbs to "Fisher-Price" UI design
Replies: 847
Views: 116460

Re: Vanguard website succumbs to "Fisher-Price" UI design

beyou wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 12:17 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:54 am I merged mlewis' thread into the ongoing discussion.

Thanks to the member who reported the post and provided a link to this thread.)
How is this thread actionable ?
Seems it’s just bashing without solving any problem.
I do not mean the merged thread alone, the entire Fisher Price thread.
Well, it's partly bashing, you may be right. But I'm legitimately curious if others find the problem frustrating or if it's just me, if people have reported this or if they know of the best way to report feedback (I've gotten useless emails from Vanguard asking for feedback which lead to nothing more than questions with a 1-10 ranked response), and if maybe even someone more associated with Vanguard is tuned into forums like this.
by mlewis
Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard website succumbs to "Fisher-Price" UI design
Replies: 847
Views: 116460

Vanguard Platform

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek] I'm a longtime fan of Vanguard, and I have numerous accounts with them. But does anybody else feel like the trading platform is poorly designed? I realize Vanguard is not designed for the day trader or anything like that, but even doing simple things like rebalancing 1x/year can be frustrating. My goal would be to just be able to go to a single screen, make a number of trades to rebalance and/or make a contribution, and be done with it. Instead, there are different screens for buying, selling, exchanging, contributing, etc. It's even more complicated if you have an account that holds some mutual funds and some ETFs. I won't bother to list all the instances or examples of things I find frustrating ...
by mlewis
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Government Pension Offset
Replies: 4
Views: 756

Re: Government Pension Offset

Hopefully the links above explained most of it. No, you don't have any 'claim to get it back'. You will get some SS if you have 40 quarters, and the SS payments will relate to what you put into it. You might assume the WEP sort of screws you, but that's really not the case. It's there because lower earners get back a higher percentage of their SS contributions when they collect than high earners do, by design. The WEP makes it so the normal formula doesn't confuse a high earner who contributed for a short number of years with a low earner who contributed for a large number of years.
by mlewis
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need Explanation: Why Locking in Losses is Bad
Replies: 26
Views: 2537

Re: Need Explanation: Why Locking in Losses is Bad

As others are pointing out, I'd try to convince your friend he will not likely be able to time the market bottom. When there is a rebound it can happen quickly. If you knew it in advance it would have already happened. Your discussion seems to hinge on whether selling at $25/sh and buying at $20/sh is a good trade. Of course it is. The question isn't if that is possible or worth it. The question is can he time the market to do that, and the answer likely NO. Also, I wanted to point out that you mentioned wash sale rules. These rules do not apply to your 401k since you cannot deduct those losses anyway. Even if they did, they don't dictate that you have to wait 30 days. However, if you don't wait 30 days you can't deduct the loss. Of course ...
by mlewis
Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacationing to Palm Springs, CA in two weeks. Advice?
Replies: 24
Views: 2678

Re: Vacationing to Palm Springs, CA in two weeks. Advice?

I think Kenny Rogers has a chicken place near there.

JK
by mlewis
Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS and deceased spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1409

Re: SS and deceased spouse

My father is 66 (FRA) and was born in 1953. My mother just recently passed away and was age 62. I'm so sorry for your loss. My mother had a stronger SS earnings record. If my father continues to work and delay his own benefit until age 70 it would only approximately match what the spousal benefit would be now. What does "approximately match" mean? Was your mother collecting social security benefits when she passed? If so, that is the amount your father could receive as survivor benefits. If not, the survivor benefits equal 100% of what she would have received had she been at Full Retirement Age. He probably should collect survivor's benefits now and wait until 70 to switch to his own benefit, if his age 70 benefits exceed the sur...
by mlewis
Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS and deceased spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1409

Re: SS and deceased spouse

Thanks.
It seems to somewhat contradict what my father was told at the SS office, in that my mother's benefit is not necessarily fixed after her death. Also, doesn't the strategy that Mike describes require a restricted application, which they told my father was not possible if one spouse is deceased?

Mike writes that one option is to claim your own benefit and delay the widower benefit until FRA. Since my father is already at FRA, it seems like the widower benefit is already maxed out, and does not increase until he hits age 70, unlike if he were going to claim her benefit now and delay his own until age 70?
by mlewis
Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS and deceased spouse
Replies: 8
Views: 1409

SS and deceased spouse

Hello, I'm helping my father with making the best social security decision, and I'm hoping somebody here can confirm if what an agent at the social security office told him is correct or not. My father is 66 (FRA) and was born in 1953. My mother just recently passed away and was age 62. He is still working, at least for the time being. My mother had a stronger SS earnings record. If my father continues to work and delay his own benefit until age 70 it would only approximately match what the spousal benefit would be now. I had assumed that my father could go and file a restricted application, collect his own benefit, and delay a spousal benefit. My thought was the spousal benefit would increase until he hit age 70, at which time he should sw...
by mlewis
Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PLEASE, help me choose between 4 wood floors
Replies: 35
Views: 4458

Re: PLEASE, help me choose between 4 wood floors

I wouldn't worry about a "warranty" either way. It's a piece of wood.
If somebody wants to tell you how much the nails cost, that's fine, but don't be offended if they just want to give you a number for the whole job.
Unless you really want to go really rustic, don't pick something that has open knot holes you will have to refill.
Just pick a wood you like for a price you like. Laying a floor isn't rocket science. Just get a reference or something to know that they will take the time to do it right and not rush through it too quickly or drop their compressor and dent your new floor and walk away and pretend it's all ok. That kind of thing should be avoided.

malcolm
by mlewis
Sun Jul 12, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Shortfall
Replies: 37
Views: 4883

Re: Larry Portfolio Shortfall

It has always seemed to me that the biggest risk of the Larry Portfolio is the extra sequence risk you open yourself up to when your stocks are mostly allocated to SCV. For most people, they need their portfolios to not just perform well over time, but to perform relatively well at certain times. Since we are all probably either saving for retirement, or drawing down during retirement, we need good performance especially during the later years of saving and/or the early years or withdrawing. If that happens to be the decade when SCV does poorly, tough luck for you. For the long-term, lump sum investor, the LP might make more sense?

Malcolm
by mlewis
Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 29041

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

209south wrote:I think it's just a labeling issue, mlewis. The 'before inflation returns' are the 'real' numbers, and the 'returns with 2% inflation' just add 2% to reflect nominal returns.
I guess you are correct. However it sure seems like the numbers in the "before inflation" column should be the expected nominal returns, and the expected real returns should be 200 bps less.

malcolm
by mlewis
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 29041

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

1. The numbers are wrong, that's the key point. To Johno and 209south, I want to thank you for bringing this up regarding Rick's inflation adjusted expected returns for bonds. I've been puzzled about this for years. I've commented about it here before but gotten little response. I respect Rick and I think he has a lot of good things to say, but this table makes no sense to me. For stocks, you take the expected real return, you add expected inflation, and you get the expected nominal return. Easy. With bonds, you take the nominal return (expected or actual), you subtract expected inflation, and you get the expected real return. Or am I missing something. From the looks of it, Rick is taking the bond return, then adding inflation. Why? I don...
by mlewis
Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ice dams - windows leaking
Replies: 12
Views: 9087

Re: Ice dams - windows leaking

Most of what people have said here is generally correct. This can be tough to diagnose based on an online post, but you may be correct that the water is getting in somewhere behind the gutters/siding/windows. Yes, ice damming is basically a roof/insulation problem. But, you have a bunch of water freezing on the edge of the roof and melting it could be coming in a number of places. I would agree that you don't necessarily need new windows. that isnt the real problem. I'll tell you a secret- many windows leak. If they are flashed correctly, the leaks don't matter because water is directed back outside. It's possible that some siding/gutters/trim needs to be removed and flashing/drainage plane issues need to be resolved. It's possible that som...
by mlewis
Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicaid eligibility and cap gains
Replies: 4
Views: 2043

Medicaid eligibility and cap gains

My girlfriend and I live together, and since she makes a fairly small amount of money she has been eligible for medicaid. However, I realized today I may have done something silly. Because of her low earnings in 2014, in December I sold and reinvested a bunch of stock for her in order to basically "tax-gain harvest," since even with those gains (approx $20k) she will remain in the 15% federal bracket and not pay any tax on the capital gains. It was a cost-basis reboot after these past years of great performance. And I thought I was being so clever. Today I realized that this move may have had the unintended consequence of screwing up her medicaid eligibility. Does anybody know what I can expect to happen as I fill out tax forms fo...
by mlewis
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DFA
Replies: 8
Views: 1442

Re: DFA

I haven't used VG's services, but I wouldn't be surprised if their advisors are as you describe. Probably not always the most experienced, and I'd be curious how much added value there is there. But maybe others that have used the service can comment.
If the DFA guy is cheaper I would personally definitely go that route. You'd probably be better off overall anyway, but you should get to know them well, hopefully understand what they're about, and feel comfortable moving forward.

malcolm
by mlewis
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bid-Ask spread
Replies: 7
Views: 1326

Re: Bid-Ask spread

I don't necessarily know the answer, and I'm not an expert, but I'm curious when you placed the trade? Was it after hours?
Often times when I am rebalancing I will place trades after hours to be executed at the market price during the next trading day. My trading platform (I use Schwab) will show a large bid/ask spread (I'm trading ETFs, if that matters), but it seems like what I am looking at is just the spread for the after hours trades. When the next trading day opens the spread will collapse back down to a normal, smaller amount.
Not sure if this relates to your situation.

Malcolm
by mlewis
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: security camera outside away from a power source
Replies: 18
Views: 2770

Re: security camera outside away from a power source

Maybe you should look into getting a motion activated camera, like the type people use in the woods to look for bigfoot, or more seriously for wild animals etc.
You could mount it on a tree out of reach and point it at the gate area.
I don't know too much about it, but worth a look. I'm sure there is some solution, but it might require a little periodic attention, like changing sim cards or battery packs.
malcolm
by mlewis
Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats the best index?
Replies: 14
Views: 2473

Re: Whats the best index?

DonCamillo wrote:Different ways have been tried for indexing. It is generally agreed that indexing by market cap is the best way to match market returns.
This is a meaningless statement. If the market returns are defined by a market cap index, then of course a market cap index fund is the best way to approximate those returns.

Though I'm not saying a market cap index isn't a great way to go.

malcolm
by mlewis
Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for two specific index fund ETFs
Replies: 6
Views: 1427

Re: Looking for two specific index fund ETFs

not sure if such an ETF exists. but you could essentially build what you are looking for with a variety of ETF's, but maybe not ones denominated in Euros.

http://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-finder

malcolm
by mlewis
Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 22, I want to be rich, looking for a high reward fund
Replies: 67
Views: 10159

Re: 22, I want to be rich, looking for a high reward fund

I know some high growth funds that will make you super rich someday. but they are super secret. I can only tell people that are super serious about getting super rich.

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
by mlewis
Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF premium/discount
Replies: 7
Views: 3507

Re: ETF premium/discount

It's not just the closing price of local markets. ADRs that trade on US exchanges are used to interpolate ETF prices in markets that are closed. Thus, it may appear that an international ETF is trading at a premium or discount when it is actually a price discovery vehicle. In other words, the price of the ETF is more accurate than the latest iNav and much more accurate than the last NAV based on closing prices in foreign markets. Rick Ferri That is an interesting fact. However, that idea makes it difficult to look at the premium/discount and be able to determine what portion of it is due to it's 'price discovery,' and which part of it is due to the ETF provider not tracking the NAV as closely as they could be. thanks for the replies malcolm
by mlewis
Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: social security/inflation question
Replies: 5
Views: 1402

social security/inflation question

I am slightly confused about the details of how the SS retirement benefit is calculated when it comes to indexing for inflation. In order to calculate your number for your Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME) they index your earnings from past years to account for inflation. However, for earnings after age 60 they do not index the amounts for inflation, correct? Example: Lets say you turn age 62 in 2015. If you want to take SS in 2015, will they index your earnings to 2015 dollars, but just keep the final 2 years of earnings in nominal dollars? Or do they index all your earnings to 2013 dollars? Same question if you want to delay. If you want to take social security in 2023 at age 70, will they index your earnings to 2023, save for each ...
by mlewis
Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deferred Compensation (or not)?
Replies: 2
Views: 824

Re: Deferred Compensation (or not)?

It seems unlikely that you would be better off investing in a taxable account. You may be eligible to contribute to a Roth IRA, depending on your income. The 28% bracket crosses the threshold I believe.

At the risk of being blasphemous on this site, I don't think AB is all that bad. To be clear, I index, and I wouldn't choose to invest with them. But in the world of active mgmt I think they do some good things.

malcolm
by mlewis
Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF premium/discount
Replies: 7
Views: 3507

Re: ETF premium/discount

stlutz wrote: One thing to keep in mind is that, depending upon the ETF, the NAV is somewhat of an estimate. This is true with non-Treasury bond ETFs as well as international ETFs anytime after early morning hours when most international markets are closed.
Are the prices we see based mostly on after-hours trading for those international markets? I'm curious how that is determined exactly.
by mlewis
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vinyl Siding over wood
Replies: 18
Views: 7328

Re: Vinyl Siding over wood

I am a carpenter and I can tell you that I am well versed in building science/moisture issues.

Personally, I would never use vinyl, but that's just my taste.

I would definitively say that there is no real reason the original siding has to be removed.
by mlewis
Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF premium/discount
Replies: 7
Views: 3507

ETF premium/discount

I understand the concept behind the premium/discount for an ETF. I've just always been confused as to which is which.
For instance, when you look up an ETF it will list the premium/discount as a negative or positive number (as a %). If it is negative does that mean it is selling at a premium or at a discount? And vice-versa. Maybe I've just over-thought this.
Some things are surprisingly hard to google. And not sure why I've never thought to just seek the wisdom of the bogleheads on this one.

thanks
Malcolm
by mlewis
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement pension options -- CONFUSED!
Replies: 15
Views: 2196

Re: Retirement pension options -- CONFUSED!

I would agree that you should try to post some more info. I think this decision needs to be taken as part of the big picture for you. What is your other retirement income? Do you hope to retire at some point in the foreseeable future? What would your benefit amount be from the stated company if you postponed taking the pension until a later date. Does the monthly amount you receive include a cost of living adjustment? (will it increase with inflation each year?) Compared to taking the lump sum, the monthly payout is a good rate, especially at your age. If you took the lump sum and invested in an annuity right now I don't think you would get as much money. Since interest rates have been low for a while, Im assuming your mortgage rate is also...
by mlewis
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Question
Replies: 18
Views: 1971

Re: Portfolio Review Question

Hi All, • Desired Asset Allocation 90:10. (Very risk tolerant but open to suggestions here. I will say that I will buy and hold and not use investment money for any reason I can forsee for the next 15 to 20 years) If you believe you can handle it, then I say great. If you lived through the last market crash and had a lot of equities and could sleep at night, then you know you can handle it. • Desired International Allocation: 20% (Open to suggestions here). Nothing wrong with this number. Personally I would say anything in the 20-50% range is reasonable, so you are on the lower end for me, but that's ok. Current Investments Vanguard 500 Index Investor Shares (VFINX) 26.5 % Vanguard Explorer Investor Shares (VEXPX) 24 % this is not a fund m...
by mlewis
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Small Cap Value Portfolio...
Replies: 31
Views: 6549

Re: Ultimate Small Cap Value Portfolio...

Why not use SLYV (the SPDR SP 600 fund) instead of IJS, it trades for free on schwab.
by mlewis
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed-Fee Advisor in Texas
Replies: 14
Views: 2805

Re: Fixed-Fee Advisor in Texas

Here are two you might look into:

http://www.ndwealth.com/

http://www.talisadvisors.com/

malcolm
by mlewis
Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Potential advisor/Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 2146

Re: Potential advisor/Portfolio

I just read Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth yesterday. One CFP that I interviewed likes this book and is "all in". She gave it as a gift so I could better see where she is coming from. For the most part, I liked the book, but I had some issues with his theories as well. I think he is too agressive in retirement and should allow for bonds. His 5th ed published 2013 sounds like he is 100% stock. But to clarify, he does NOT push for active management. He leaves it up to the investor and advisor. He also emphasizes that a manager canNOT beat the market and if one says they can, it is a no-no. He also argues that the investor shouldn't try to outperform others, but rather get returns. He points out that if person A has money to last ...
by mlewis
Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Q: sequence risk
Replies: 5
Views: 1690

Larry Swedroe Q: sequence risk

I understand the "Larry Portfolio" and it seems like a good strategy. But is this necessarily the best strategy for somebody who is saving or drawing down their portfolio over 30 years (as most people are doing one of). With heavy exposure to the SV asset class don't you face a risk that SV will underperform during a critical period, such as the end of the saver's timeframe or the beginning of the retiree's? Don't you face more "sequence risk" with a smaller group of asset classes in you portfolio?
Malcolm
by mlewis
Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cedar Plank Siding
Replies: 14
Views: 1869

Re: Cedar Plank Siding

30 years on the cedar. You can reapply the stain more often.
by mlewis
Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return
Replies: 36
Views: 6672

Re: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return

Rick Ferri wrote:Value is value. Whether you invest in small value, large value or total market value market is irrelevant. What maters is the overall value tilt in entire portfolio.

Rick Ferri
I have a hard time seeing this. Do you have more information on this idea?

You are essentially saying these two portfolios have the same primary characteristics?
TSM+LCV+SC = TSM+LC+SCV

LCV and SCV might both be value, but I just think of them as separate asset classes.

malcolm
by mlewis
Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What George Constanza has to teach us about investing
Replies: 28
Views: 5897

Re: What George Constanza has to teach us about investing

I pulled this sentence from the 2nd to last paragraph of the article. "Similarly, while the markets rebounded from hitting bottom on March 6, 2009, investors pulled billions of dollars out of stocks." Could somebody explain this to me a bit. As I would tell it, stock prices get bid up and bid down. No money comes "in" or "out" of stocks. However, if you're talking about what the shares are worth, then how is money being "pulled out" in aggregate at the same time that prices are rising. If prices are rising, then by definition isn't money "going in" (or, more accurately being bid up- for every buyer there is a seller.) It would seem to me the only way for money to be "pulled out" wh...
by mlewis
Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return
Replies: 36
Views: 6672

Re: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return

So it seems from this, and just from your portfolio in general (http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=58709) that you are a fan of getting some SCV but not bothering with any value tilt in the LC arena.

Are you suggesting there isn't really a value premium on its own, or that it isn't worth trying to capture?

malcolm
by mlewis
Tue Jul 02, 2013 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 57, quit working, $700,000
Replies: 59
Views: 14345

Re: 57, quit working, $700,000

An oft quoted rule of thumb is that you can withdraw an inflation adjusted 4% of your portfolio per year to use towards expenses. I think many people on this board would even agree that 4% could be a risky bet in this environment. 3% would be safer, especially if you are on the younger side, as you are.

You'll need to do some more planning for sure, and perhaps some more working. You might do better with a simple annuity, but then it's gone when you die if that matters to you. 10% is a dream, sorry.

malcolm
by mlewis
Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question: Spec Home
Replies: 4
Views: 3220

Re: Tax question: Spec Home

Gdaleo1 Thanks for your reply. One follow-up question to your final point: If the gain on the house is passed along as a capital gain, that makes me assume that I must "pay" myself a wage. If I were using personal funds to finance the project, for example, I would think I'd have to record some amount of income for myself, comparable with market rates for a carpenter, so that the entire labor component would not come out as a capital gain. If that is true, what if I "over-paid" myself, so that I actually had a capital loss- I assume I could still only write off $3k of the loss per year, so initially I would essentially be taxing myself on income I never received until I could write it all off? Also, is it necessarily a sh...
by mlewis
Wed Jun 19, 2013 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question: Spec Home
Replies: 4
Views: 3220

Re: Tax question: Spec Home

I think step 0 would be to determine the legal status of your business. Would income be to you or to the business? How will you track and pay expenses to plumbers, electricians, etc.? Legal status determines tax rates and capital assets and such. I'd say that since the tools and truck can be used again and are not solely to be used for the construction of this house, then they would not included in the basis if the house. Only construction materials, land, and subs are included in the basis. Yes. Certainly there will be other steps besides what I talked about above. Thats just where my questions lie at the moment. We will have a separate account to help track expenses, and will probably use some type of accounting software if not excel. We...
by mlewis
Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest free loan?
Replies: 18
Views: 1646

Re: Interest free loan?

No reason not to if you would spend the money anyway.

Inflation exists. It's like free money.
by mlewis
Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question: Spec Home
Replies: 4
Views: 3220

Tax question: Spec Home

For the tax gurus out there: I'm a young carpenter and thinking of starting my own business (it would be a partnership with one other person- both general partners) and building a spec home. I'm pretty good with my personal taxes but trying to wrap my head around the tax implications of the various steps involved in this process. Step 1: buy some tools I don't currently own. Since most of these tools aren't too expensive, I can simply deduct their cost in the first year, correct? For more expensive tools/equipment (such as an expensive table-saw or scaffolding- maybe around $2k) Should that be capitalized and depreciated? And how would Sec. 179 affect my options? Can I use sec. 179 if I place an item in service in 1 year but need to deduct ...
by mlewis
Fri May 31, 2013 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 2351

Re: Asset Allocation

Chris M: I do agree with you that MLewis answer was excellent and so is yours. As a result I have began to take steps (by opening up a bond fund account with Vanguard-Total Bond Fund) and transferring IRA money to it so it remains non-taxable. In regards to health care fund I am aware of the dangers of putting too much in sector investing. In addition to your comments on costs rising at triple the rate of inflation I have also noticed an increase in the medication market (for example many more children are medicated these days especially with antidepressants and ADHD medications-much to my dismay) and with the recent publication of the latest DSM book (diagnostic manual) this is going to get worse before it gets better if it ever gets bett...
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Veteran Value Averagers Out There?
Replies: 12
Views: 1488

Re: Any Veteran Value Averagers Out There?

I've read it, liked it, and been quite interested in the practice. However, to the OP- a moving target sounds like a recipe for a constant stream of questions, calculations, and opportunities to second guess yourself.

Especially if you want to S+D, I think VA makes less and less practical sense.

I think it might be more practical to work into a draw down strategy somehow.
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 10988

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

HomerJ wrote:
hicabob wrote: I don't care how "nice" he is. He does more harm than good in this world. Real people lose real money because of his show.
Tax on the gullible.
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 10988

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Allan Roth wrote:
mlewis wrote:
As far as the six month period, what period would you suggest?
Any time period you picked IN ADVANCE would be fine with me. Too late for that in this case.

It would also help if you laid out the terms of the study, again, in advance. Otherwise, it's a silly exercise, and the luck may lie with you, not cramer.
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 10988

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

We are on with this wager. Using the same methodology in this piece, give me two stocks today that will be in the top 4 performers of the 749 in the Wilshire Large Cap index. I think we’re misunderstanding the rules of the wager. I’m willing to play the role of Cramer in the article (i.e., making hundreds of blind predictions about the future) but not the role of Allan Roth in the article (picking just two of the stocks). I think you are misunderstanding the article. Cramer gave two predictions on 11/20/12 and I acted on both immediately after reading. These are the same rules as the article itself and I'm offering to let you play the same role as Cramer in the article and giving you a 100 to 1 payoff. You must give me two stocks today tha...
by mlewis
Mon May 27, 2013 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 10988

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

This is just downright wrong Allan. If he had made a call of either buy or sell on every stock, then every stock has 1/2 odds of being sell. Since he predicted every stock in this hypothetical scenario he would be guaranteed to have selected the top four performers, the only question would be whether he forcasted buy or sell. Therefore: Stock 1 sell odds: 1/2 Stock 2 sell odds: 1/2 Stock 3 sell odds: 1/2 Stock 4 sell odds: 1/2 Odds of all four being sell: 1/16 Simple intuition should tell you there's clearly no way the odds are anywhere near as low as you're saying. Overconfidence bias on your part. You would be correct IF the methodology were picking from prior forecasts. It was not though I think it will be difficult for you to re-frame ...
by mlewis
Mon May 27, 2013 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 10988

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

YttriumNitrate wrote:I'm all for bashing Cramer, but the author of this article just cherry picked a couple of Cramer's predictions (from among hundreds if not thousands) and had the audacity to call his article a "statistical analysis"...

Here's some more good analysis by said author.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162- ... s-s-p-500/
by mlewis
Mon May 27, 2013 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 2351

Re: Asset Allocation

Interesting to mention that my wife and I put the exact same amount on a Roth IRA but on different funds. She invested in Health Care and myself on Windsor and she has done much better than me (I did see the light several years ago and changed course). Guitar Player Health Care may have done very well for a period of time (even a long period), but sectors can be cyclical. Your swap to health care is a classic case of "chasing performance" and is the type of move most everybody here would recommend against. Among your stocks, I would recommend you simplify your holdings and hold a diversified basket of index funds that more closely represents the market capitalization of investible stocks. If you really feel like it, hold a little...
by mlewis
Sat May 25, 2013 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice Needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1888

Re: Advice Needed

Agree with Laura.

Be a little more conservative and try to ignore your investments as much as possible.

Disagree strongly with Tibbitts. I see his strategy as very high risk and very low reward. The makings of a foolish market-timing undertaking and more worries then you need.

malcolm