Search found 213 matches

by Bob
Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust question
Replies: 18
Views: 1419

Re: Trust question

I am guessing based on how trusts typically work -- and please correct me if I have these guesses wrong -- but sounds like perhaps: - if the creator passed, the trust is now irrevocable, and beneficiaries of the trust are named. - Your friend, the trustee, is one the original creator's children and is a named beneficiary. - There are one or more additional children (of the original trust creator) who are also beneficiaries. - The trust requires that income on trust investment be distributed to the beneficiaries (equally?) - The trust allows distribution of additional monies (from assets) to beneficiaries if they have certain needs. If the above is correct: - if the trust earns income on its investments and does not distribute that income to...
by Bob
Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust question
Replies: 18
Views: 1419

Re: Trust question

Typically, when the creator of a revocable trust passes the trust becomes an irrevocable trust. Is that not the case here?
by Bob
Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Options if One Has "Won the Game"
Replies: 11
Views: 1613

Portfolio Options if One Has "Won the Game"

What would be a good investment portfolio if one has "won the game" meaning a 2-person household is now at retirement (e.g.: age 66), has paid of their house and has about 30X annual expenses in investments. Further assume the household prefers minimal portfolio volatility (e.g.: prefers <8% loss in bad times). I am thinking a 20/80 (worldwide stocks / US national muni bond funds). Better options of things to consider?
by Bob
Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%
Replies: 42
Views: 4506

Re: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%

Thank you to everyone! All your data, options and advice have really helped me to think about the issue and do some more research about alternatives. Thanks again. Bob
by Bob
Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTEAX (Tax-exempt bond index fund) vs VWIUX (Intermediate-term tax exempt fund)
Replies: 12
Views: 4641

Re: VTEAX (Tax-exempt bond index fund) vs VWIUX (Intermediate-term tax exempt fund)

OP may know this, but there is also the option of the ETF equivalent of VTEAX which is VTEB and it has an ER of 0.06% vs VTEAX's 0.09%.
by Bob
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%
Replies: 42
Views: 4506

How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%

For years and years I have followed the "rule" and put my equity investments in a low-cost Index funds (or ETFs) representing the "Total Market" -- such as Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI). But now the Total Market has become weighted to 25% "tech." Just 5 tech firms now make up 17% of the weight of the entire "Total Market." That seem like less diversification than I might like and it is starting to cause me sleep less well at night seeing how heavily I am invested in so few firms even though it is the capital-weighted "Total Market." If I wanted to have an adjusted Total Market investment holding with less "tech" -- where "tech" makes up say 12.5% of my inves...
by Bob
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Parent's Variable annuity
Replies: 15
Views: 1595

Re: Parent's Variable annuity

Not sure this will be helpful but FWIW....
A variable annuity that is left to a non-spouse as a death benefit from the person's estate is taxed as ordinary income. The amount taxed is the value at death (= the death benefit paid out) minus the original cost / premium. The taxable amount is taxed at ordinary income rates.
by Bob
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: National Debt and Deficit Spending
Replies: 21
Views: 1860

Re: National Debt and Deficit Spending

At least one concern with having a large national debt is that high interest rates will raise required debt payments, further unbalance the budget and a government will react to the pressure. Perhaps there are historic examples of this one could use to somehow "backtest" potential scenarios?
by Bob
Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating MAGI for Roth IRA contribution
Replies: 5
Views: 930

Re: Calculating MAGI for Roth IRA contribution

FiveK, thanks. Great resource.
I should have known something like that existed on BH.org but Google did not surface it. My bad.
by Bob
Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating MAGI for Roth IRA contribution
Replies: 5
Views: 930

Re: Calculating MAGI for Roth IRA contribution

Many, many thanks for your help. Much appreciated!
by Bob
Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating MAGI for Roth IRA contribution
Replies: 5
Views: 930

Calculating MAGI for Roth IRA contribution

To determine Modified Adjusted Gross Income ("MAGI") for the purpose of determining if one can contribute to a Roth IRA, does one add Municipal Bond dividend income to AGI?

If anyone can suggest a definitive IRS publication or article as to how Roth IRA MAGI should be calulated -- that specifically speaks to whether muni dividend income is included or not -- I would be most appreciative.

To calculate MAGI for purposes of Medicare IRMMA it is clear that Muni dividend income is added to AGI. But everything I have found about Roth IRA MAGI does not list muni divdends as an something that should be added to AGI. So I am confused.

Help? :D
by Bob
Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 148
Views: 10863

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

I am mostly looking for an academic, economic education rather than predictions about how unlikely (or likely) such a scenario might be. ...... For the moment we are in the working age population bottleneck of Gen X which is smaller than the currently retiring baby boomers. However, behind Gen X is Gen Y (the Millennials) which are an even larger generation than the boomers. When they reach prime income generating age (next 5ish years) the fiscal situation will have to start to look more 'normal' no matter what policy comes from Washington because there will be more tax revenue by default with a larger working age population. Importantly this is an almost uniquely American situation. Europe and Developed Asia have a Gen Y that is even smal...
by Bob
Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 148
Views: 10863

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

sport wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:32 pm
Bob wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:46 pm We are invested very conservatively (e.g.: 25% bonds/75% equities)
This is not "very conservative" for retirees. Do you mean 25% equities/75% bonds?
Thank you! Good catch. :oops:
Yes, 25% equities/75% bonds?
by Bob
Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 148
Views: 10863

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

What, specifically, are you worried about? My worries are two-fold, as lised later in this post. For context, we are a married couple who retired 2-3 years ago and we derive 2/3 of the funds we need to cover our expenses from our investments. We are invested very conservatively (e.g.: 25% bonds/75% equities) and can live well within what that mix provides today. But I don't understand how all the talk abut large and rising US government deficits might impact us. So I worry :? As best that I can express them, my worries are: 1) If we came to a point where there actually was "too much government debt" what might that likely lead to? Higher interest rates as investor flee US debt? Deflation? Higher taxes? Etc. 2) And then how would ...
by Bob
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 148
Views: 10863

Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

If one was worried about the rising Federal Budget Deficits and National Debt, how would one invest and why? I definitiely am not looking for a political discussion but am wondering what and why might one invest to reduce the personal income and investment risks for a person early in their in retirement who is risk averse.
by Bob
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees: How to beat a 3% SWR
Replies: 46
Views: 3644

Re: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees: How to beat a 3% SWR

Would an alternative to a TIPs ladder such as investing in a TIPs fund (e.g. Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, VAIPX) work similarly?
by Bob
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees: How to beat a 3% SWR
Replies: 46
Views: 3644

Re: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees

Interesting idea. Would you please explain (show) how you calculate the result of an approximately 3.5% guaranteed , 30 year SWR with the assumption that TIPS have an average 0.3% real yield? Thanks.
by Bob
Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 3685

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

As a long term holder of VWIUX, I look less at the "percentage yield" statistics but more at the dividends per share. As they drop (like other rates) so does the income we would like to count on to pay bills. ;(

Image
by Bob
Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR advice from EarlyRetirementNow.com
Replies: 6
Views: 1622

Re: SWR advice from EarlyRetirementNow.com

Perhaps this 2016 study by W. Pfau comparing SWR by country offers a perspective.

https://retirementresearcher.com/4-rule ... und-world/
by Bob
Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 3173

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Yes, it can be recalculated each year so would not be permanent.
by Bob
Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate vs Muni default rate
Replies: 3
Views: 730

Re: Corporate vs Muni default rate

One source says:

Average Default Rates for Munis = 0.18%
Average Default Rates for Corporate =1.74%

Source: Moody’s Investment-Grade, 10 year cumulative default rates average over the period 2007–2016

Link to document: http://www.msrb.org/msrb1/pdfs/MSRB-Muni-Facts.pdf
by Bob
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 15758

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I have not run the numbers on this scenario but I wonder if a strategy that starts with a CD-based approach and then has a trigger for when to buy an annuity (if ever) might be the best of all options? When I have time, I'll look into that. I am not sure if the right trigger would be one spouse dying, the nest egg reaching a certain level (like 50% of original value) or something else. Some things to think and work through include: Delaying buying an annuity and using CDs has the advantage of some "free" inflation protection and maybe some upside in rates (or downside, too, i guess.) The longer one waits to buy an annuity of higher the "payout" and if it is on one life and not two, the "payout" also increases. ...
by Bob
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 15758

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Yes, an approach using CDs could "fail". For people age 70, 20% of men and 33% women are expected to be alive at age 90. However, only 10% of the time do both partners in a couple achieve age 90 together. But if one is in that "lucky" group that lives past 90, it could be a BIG problem if adjustments were not made. Agreed. On other hand, a CD-based strategy incorporates much lower cost, inflation protection. When we encounter inflation CD rates rise -- and there is not an added charge or lower initial payout for that protection. With annuities you need to guess what inflation will occur and buy that protection so that your initial "payout" is much less than the figure I quoted in the annuity that was not inflat...
by Bob
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 15758

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

It does not take much to show that annuities are a financial scam on consumers -- totally legal just like payday lenders in most states. Scam #1: They are advertised featuring "payout rates" which most consumers compare to CD rates because most people do not know better even after they read the fine print. Scam #2: They are advertised as "guaranteed" which sounds great. And how many people understand the fine print about the company is assumed to be able to pay Financially, annuities are a usually not a clear winner versus investing in a rolling ladder of safer, FDIC-insured CDs unless people really think they will live well past their life expectancy. For instance at age 70, a $100,000 purchase of a joint life, SPIA wou...
by Bob
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Re: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?

SquawkIdent wrote: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:10 pm IMHO, not a wash sale but look out for the 6 month rule of wash sales involving muni bond funds. VWIUX is not included in this because it accrues dividends daily and distributes monthly. However, I don't know if MUB does the same. If that is an issue, just TLH into another VG bond fund.
Thanks to all for your input and very grateful for the 6 month rule warning. I was not aware of that.
by Bob
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?

I believe the answer is "no" but I wanted to get feedback as to if I am correct?

VWIUX (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund mutual fund) is actively managed. MUB (iShares National Muni Bond ETF) tracks the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. So even though both are broadly diversified municipal bond investments they hold somewhat different bonds, are managed differently, and one is a fund while the other is an ETF.

Different enough so it would not be a wash sale?

Any and all feedback would be appreciated.
by Bob
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation and withdrawal from portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1315

Re: Inflation and withdrawal from portfolio

As one way to answer your question you could use the online tools for back-testing called Firecalc or CFiresim to see how he would have fared in the past.

Since you only provide the percent of his total investment returns he spent in the last year, I can't guess at the actual levels or his starting portfolio. But using Firecalc to investigate 30 periods starting in 1872 to see how someone who was able to reinvest 66% of their total portfolio returns in the first year would do in each 30 year period, he seems to be in great shape. Even with only 25% in equities and 75% in bonds there is never a failure (i.e.: running out of money).
by Bob
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for info on Stifel
Replies: 5
Views: 1186

Re: Looking for info on Stifel

Thank you all for your info.
by Bob
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for info on Stifel
Replies: 5
Views: 1186

Looking for info on Stifel

A friend's widowed mother who is in her 80's has all her assets managed by Stifel and asked if they were a good firm for her to use. Does anyone have any experience with them? I have not been able to find much about them or their costs other than the firm dates from before 1900.
by Bob
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 87
Views: 17370

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Thank you for developing and sharing this tool. Very interesting and helps me look at my portfolio nominal and real returns in a better contexr.
Great stuff !
by Bob
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 4349

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

As noted by CurlyDave, one of the take-aways may be that SWR seems to go up and down with some periodicity. So it made me wonder if the ups and downs correlate to anything? And if they do, would that correlation be useful in predicting current year SWR? Some people on this forum tend to go ballistic when the word 'valuation' is mentioned, but fact is there is an area where a strong correlation was displayed in the past. High valuations => low SWR. Low valuations => high SWR. It did NOT work all the time though, e.g. the oil crisis in the 70s was NOT due to a speculative bubble... You can find a more extended analysis of this topic in this blog article . Thank you very much for supplying the link to your blog article "CAPE and Safe Wit...
by Bob
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 4349

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Very interesting analysis. Many things one can take-away from this work. Thank you for sharing your work.

As noted by CurlyDave, one of the take-aways may be that SWR seems to go up and down with some periodicity. So it made me wonder if the ups and downs correlate to anything? And if they do, would that correlation be useful in predicting current year SWR?

I am no statistician but using data from the Simba Backtesting tool it appears that T-Bills may be one factor. Since 1900, the T-bill rate in a year somewhat correlates to the SWR for that year (correlation = 0.69). And charting the two side by side shows a similar path. (Sorry I can't seem to post my chart).

Thoughts?
by Bob
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter-scatter, part 4: Bond allocation
Replies: 9
Views: 3360

Re: Matter-scatter, part 4: Bond allocation

Great analysis and much appreciate that you have shared it with us all.

1+ CaliJim's suggestion (request?) that this would be a great analysis to see for a decumulation scenario. Specifically for the bond allocation aspect.
by Bob
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR 2.5% --how much equity required?
Replies: 9
Views: 1785

Re: SWR 2.5% --how much equity required?

There is a great tool to investigate your question on this web site. It is the "Simba Backtesting" excel spreadsheet discussed at: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2753812#p2753812 and with the downloadable tool (spreadsheet) at: https://goo.gl/cS3SZG On the "Compare Portfolios" tab on line 107 one of the many metrics the tool determines is the "Perpetual Spending Rate" for whatever investments mix you select. This tool is also well supported on this forum by the great people who update and support the tool and who are wonderful at answering questions. As an example of its results, with a mix of 0% Total U.S. Stock Market (VTSMX) equity and 100% Total U.S. Bond Market (VBMFX) starting in 1970 on...
by Bob
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 19337

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

letsgobobby wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:12 am
Bob wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:13 am FWIW, looking at the 500 companies in the S&P500 individually (as of close yesterday):

* 268 are up year-to-date and 236 are down (53% are up YTD and 47% are down).
* 67 (or 13%) of the "up" stocks were up 20% of more YTD.
* Of those that are up YTD, median amount is about 11% and ranges from +0.02% to +116%.
* Of those that are down YTD, median amount is almost 8% and ranges from -0.01% to -37%

If only I had known which 67 were going to be up 20% or more in December 2017. :oops: :D
How much they're up or down is only part of the equation. Market cap is the other. What is the source of your data?
Source of data = https://www.barchart.com/stocks/indices/sp/sp500
by Bob
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 19337

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

FWIW, looking at the 500 companies in the S&P500 individually (as of close yesterday):

* 268 are up year-to-date and 236 are down (53% are up YTD and 47% are down).
* 67 (or 13%) of the "up" stocks were up 20% of more YTD.
* Of those that are up YTD, median amount is about 11% and ranges from +0.02% to +116%.
* Of those that are down YTD, median amount is almost 8% and ranges from -0.01% to -37%

If only I had known which 67 were going to be up 20% or more in December 2017. :oops: :D
by Bob
Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1370
Views: 824409

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Thank you ! Happy 4th of July to U and everyone who supports this great effort. It is appreciated.
by Bob
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 3233

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

All the above is good discussion that makes me feel that it would be useful to have a clear set of items and formula for the "marginal utility." The OP says that "having more money" has little utility so perhaps reducing all the risks that his expense projections are wrong would add utility (a benefit.) Some of the risks are mentioned above but what might be interesting is an integrated approach that tries to balance the costs of "insurance" to reduce a risk with the magnitude and potential probability of the risk. Risks such as: • Longevity (e.g.: live longer than average and far beyond expected age) -- so annuitizing some money • Inflation (e.g. reduced buying power) - so investing it TIPS • Stock Market Equi...
by Bob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Florida Estate Planning
Replies: 10
Views: 1269

Re: Florida Estate Planning

A "cheap" and easy way to create a living trust is using Nolo, but as I cautioned, the much bigger expense may be after you die when the beneficiary (or personal rep) has to pay a lawyer to help administer the trust which is the way trusts are handled in lieu of going through probate. Without dealing with that eventuality you really are saving the least cost aspect of your estate plan.

https://store.nolo.com/products/online- ... ntrus.html
by Bob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Florida Estate Planning
Replies: 10
Views: 1269

Re: Florida Estate Planning

In Florida if you want to avoid probate and create a living trust with most of your assets in it then it usually makes sense to leave as little as possible out of the trust so a small pour-over will can be used. A gotcha the grantor was not aware of and that we ran into in Florida were the high lawyer fees when the trust grantor died. For what little needed to be done and how few actual work hours it took to do it (file a few papers with the city clerk and court plus place an ad in the paper, mostly) the legal fees were a huge shock. Turns out Florida law allows lawyers to charge fees of 3% of estate (trust) no matter the work involved and so my learning was to negotiate those fees when creating the trust. I have not done this (yet) but see...
by Bob
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3275

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

Grabiner,
Thank you for your good point and explanation. What would you recommend is the best way to look at a bond fund like VWIUX (Intermediate Muni) over time in light of the changing Federal Funds Rate?
Bob
by Bob
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3275

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

ps56k,
Thanks for asking the question!
It triggered me finally looking at this. It was something I should have looked into myself earlier.
Bob
by Bob
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3275

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

Sylarr,
Thanks for the"code". I need to get better at adding tables and graphics. Good to keep learning. ;)
Bob
by Bob
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3275

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

Great question that I have wondered about, too. So I collected recent data to look at it. It covers the last 18 months and not 3 years since I could not find Muni Fund data before 2016 easily. For the table below, the Federal Funds data is from FRED and the Intermediate Muni data (for VWIUX Admiral shares) is from the Vanguard website. I cannot cut & paste my data or chart from Excel into this editor to in an easy-to-view way so the data column labels from left to right for the table below are: 1st column = Date (which is Record date and not Payable date) 2nd column = Effective Federal Funds Rate (per FRED) 3rd column = VWIUX Distribution Yield (for that month) 4th column = VWIUX Price as of the date 5/31/2018 1.70 2.86 $13.91 4/30/2018...
by Bob
Fri May 25, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 10829

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

... If inflation is the greatest risk we face as retirees, would that not imply that the choice of investment assets should prioritize inflation risk? That would mean that we should be heavily tilted toward such things as TIPs, I-Bonds, and the like, yes? My understanding is that stocks may protect against inflation to some degree over the long term, but aren't particularly useful in the shorter run (such as 10 years or less). .... From all that I have read relative to trying to protect one's ability to pay expenses from social security plus one's nest egg and the income it produces, I think CULater has things characterized correctly. However, nothing I have seen or read about gives me much confidence that any investment strategy -- by its...
by Bob
Sat May 12, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings Bond Wizard to be eliminated 5/18
Replies: 71
Views: 21528

Re: Savings Bond Wizard to be eliminated 5/18

Transfer went OK for me with one major EXCEPTION. The bonds in my exported file that had been 'cashed in' lost that notation. Those "cashed in" bonds were properly labelled "CI" in the Savings Bond Wizard and they no longer were added to the totals. In the new Calculator the "CI" label is not evident and it seems to think those bonds are still outstanding and earning interest. It then adds there values to the total value of the bond portfolio which is wrong.

Easy for me to deal with that by "removing" the cashed bonds from the list but like with the removal of "Yield" column, another feature in the Wizard I will miss.
by Bob
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 28447

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

tadamsmar wrote: Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:23 am This is from January, but I searched and did not find a post on it:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2 ... 65ac7e6860

Wade Pfau updated the Trinity Study to include data thru 2017. He also includes failure rates up to 40 years. He changed the analysis a bit to use treasury bond rather than corporate bonds.
Thank you for posting the link.
by Bob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 3173

Re: Medicare IRMAA

.... This is very good news. I had not heard about plans to adjust the IRMAA limits. If the limits are raised it could be very helpful as my RMDs grow. As it is, I was looking at significantly increasing my QCDs. (May still do that, but it will feel less coerced.) I apologize for this Eeyore-like perspective, but given the history of IRMAA surcharges going up each time they are changed, it is hard to feel confident they will ever be lowered. 2007 IRMAA surcharges added to Medicare for higher income Part B beneficiaries. 2011 IRMAA added for higher income Medicare Part D beneficiaries. 2018 IRMAA ‘qualifying’ brackets lowered so: (1) surcharge applies to people with lower MAGI and (2) the surcharge goes up for many others already affected b...
by Bob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 3173

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Yes, good point. Thanks. I'll add that as something else to monitor.

Another aspect I plan to monitor is future legislation. As happened just a couple years ago, there may be added lowering of when IRMAA brackets impact a person and/or how much the annual added costs are per bracket. If instead of indexing for inflation (which might be a benefit to me) Congress makes another change that raises IRMAA costs like they did in 2015/16 then it will flip the current scenarios I have projected (and current IRMAA rates) and pay to cash in the bonds early.

Of course, as Yogi Berra wisely said: “'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future'”. I can try to anticipate things but in the end :confused