Search found 993 matches

by Day9
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where would you be if you had invested like a Boglehead from the beginning?
Replies: 107
Views: 9990

Re: Where would you be if you had invested like a Boglehead from the beginning?

I would have about 45% more if I had done 100% Total US Stock rather than my portfolio that is heavily tilted with an allocation to international. See my forum join date for my start date. But I am staying the course.
by Day9
Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are I-Bonds Worth It (as a % of Portfolio)
Replies: 14
Views: 2130

Re: Are I-Bonds Worth It (as a % of Portfolio)

Yes they are one of the advantages the little guy has over big money institutions. Take advantage of it.
by Day9
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz on FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early)
Replies: 44
Views: 5726

Re: Christine Benz on FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early)

BogleFan510 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:19 am ...I don't agree this is some post Boomer psychology thing...
Off the top of my head I can think of a famous 1st century AD story about a man who saved up enough food and even expanded the size of his barn so he would never have to work again. Didn't work out well for him in the end.
by Day9
Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651506

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

columbia wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:25 pm A good way to weather a day like Wednesday is to pretend that you own an emerging markets fund and that your investment going into the toilet is a common occurrence.
20% of my stock portfolio in Emerging Markets Value. Relatable. :happy
by Day9
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is now a good time to go to cash in your portfolio?
Replies: 76
Views: 6358

Re: is now a good time to go to cash in your portfolio?

I am surprised someone who joined this forum in 2014 with 748 posts would start a new topic like this :oops:
by Day9
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651506

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:44 pm The fact that I find myself still buying on days like this tells me that I may not be as risk averse as I think I am. I didn't panic like I would have 5+ years ago. Likely has to do with having a larger overall nest egg, but still. I may actually consider bumping my AA up from the current 30% equities. :shock:
Ah I see your "location" underneath your profile picture reflects your asset allocation
by Day9
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New E/R for IJS
Replies: 11
Views: 1843

Re: New E/R for IJS

One thing factorheads and traditional total market bogleheads agree on is costs matter. I'm glad we can be happy for each other and celebrate this win together. :sharebeer
by Day9
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651506

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I have the feeling that 0 or negative real bond yields mean if we want the real returns of stocks, we will have to deal with much higher than historical volatility. Days like this might be the new normal. I'm strapped in :beer
by Day9
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Thank you for responding to my post. I can see your reasoning there is partly why you prefer Vanguard Multifactor Fund/ETF, which is 1/3 small, 1/3 mid, 1/3 large cap. By the way, uncorrelated, you seem like you have quite the modest tilt for someone who is so interested in the topic. I don't recall exactly but I think your portfolio is mostly total market index fund, with an allocation to Vanguard Multifactor. I asked Larry Swedroe his thoughts on Vanguard Multifactor and to summarize his response he said it was fine and you can trust Vanguard, but there are other funds with higher loadings. Looking at the portfoliovisualizer regressions as well, I think your portfolio has a relatively small tilt for someone who is so interested in the top...
by Day9
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The DEEP ETF reminds me of RZV, which had huge negative alpha. Buyer beware.
by Day9
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum
Replies: 107
Views: 12033

Re: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum

Bogle was from New Jersey. I am not from that part of the world and my impression is that Old Money from the Northeast USA love ships. This has been pointed out in public discourse, for example when standardized tests were criticized for having nautical terms in their vocabulary sections. Bogle would use nautical metaphors like calling bonds an "anchor to windward". (I was amused when one Boglehead quipped today's low yields make bonds "just an anchor".) Vanguard has had global reach for years now and it makes sense to drop the Northeast USA Old Money branding. Ferri's observations are astute. Times have changed since Vanguard's founding and celebrating the triumph of the British empire is more controversial than it was ...
by Day9
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

More evidence on the size premium: Settling the Size Matter , David Blitz, Matthias X. Hanauer The size premium has failed to materialize since its discovery almost forty years ago, but is seemingly revived when controlling for quality-versus-junk exposures. This paper aims to resolve whether there exists a distinct size premium that can be captured in reality. For the US we confirm that a highly significant alpha emerges in regressions of size on quality, but for international markets we find that the size premium remains statistically indistinguishable from zero. Moreover, the US size premium appears to be beyond the practical reach of investors, because the alpha that is observed ex post in regressions cannot be captured by controlling ...
by Day9
Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Trusted Risk Premia Factors?
Replies: 30
Views: 2091

Re: Most Trusted Risk Premia Factors?

Register44 wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:31 pm ... I question though how they will hold up in the future. At least with value if the strategy fails you end up with a stock fund that isn't grossly overpriced as you would possibly with momentum...
I understand what you mean, unlike another poster who responded to this comment. However that is only when value underperforms due to valuations spreading between growth and value. It is possible value can underperform due to the growth companies simply growing their earnings a lot more than they expected to relative to the value companies. However I have read that value's recent underperformance is due to the first explanation, valuations widening.
by Day9
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Trusted Risk Premia Factors?
Replies: 30
Views: 2091

Re: Most Trusted Risk Premia Factors?

I recommend the book Your Complete Guide to Factor‑Based Investing by Andrew Berkin and Larry Swedroe

Swedroe was a huge contributor to this forum until a couple years ago
by Day9
Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance
Replies: 59
Views: 7140

Re: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance

asif408 wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:45 am OP,

I have 50% of my portfolio in emerging markets value. If anyone should be disappointed in the last decade of EM performance, it should be me, not you. But for some irrational reason, I've kept adding to my EM allocation. Yet you are griping about your 3% allocation. I think you have two options: ...
Wow, 20% of my STOCK portfolio is in Emerging Markets Value (DFEVX) and I was thinking of making the same kind of post as you, but you take the cake. I've been rebalancing and staying the course as well. You say it is an "irrational" reason but I believe my overweight allocation to be quite rational and I suspect you do too and are being humble. Good luck to us both. :beer
by Day9
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 3k extra / month. Save it down for me please..
Replies: 17
Views: 2086

Re: 3k extra / month. Spend it down for me please..

Your title says "spend it down" but the post says "save / invest" so I am not sure if this is an appropriate response. Keep your eye out for good opportunities to give. If you are already giving, then consider giving more to those people or causes. You don't have to broadcast it in a way that might attract people looking to exploit you, but keep your eye out. Ask your wife to do the same.
by Day9
Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance
Replies: 59
Views: 7140

Re: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance

... In my opinion, the uncompensated risk for a US person is modest-to-high for VWO and mild for VEA. I am willing to accept a little uncompensated risk for greater diversification; there is probably some point where overconcentration in one's home country becomes uncompensated risk too. YMMV. I would be curious to see an attempt to quantify this kind of risk and compare it to other kinds of risks, or at least a more thorough investigation of this concept. Because I can imagine it being significant or on the other hand being dominated by other more traditional kinds of risk. I don't know how to measure with precision the probability that X country decides sometime in the future that foreigners have no property rights. I would still be inte...
by Day9
Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance
Replies: 59
Views: 7140

Re: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance

000 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:33 pm ...
In my opinion, the uncompensated risk for a US person is modest-to-high for VWO and mild for VEA. I am willing to accept a little uncompensated risk for greater diversification; there is probably some point where overconcentration in one's home country becomes uncompensated risk too. YMMV.
I would be curious to see an attempt to quantify this kind of risk and compare it to other kinds of risks, or at least a more thorough investigation of this concept. Because I can imagine it being significant or on the other hand being dominated by other more traditional kinds of risk.
by Day9
Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance
Replies: 59
Views: 7140

Re: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance

I dumped emerging markets this year. A small allocation seemed unlikely to move the needle, and a large allocation seemed to add a lot of uncompensated risk. YMMV and good luck. How is it "uncompensated risk"? I hold international and emerging market stock investments myself. But arguments I've heard from the 100% US folks include unhedged international funds have currency risk that is not compensated. And a new argument I heard asked to consider an investor in USA where laws are relatively favorable with an investor in an emerging market country where the laws are not as friendly and less certain at that. For the investor in that emerging markets country, both his home country investments and his US stock he buys could be under ...
by Day9
Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 36575

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Wow quite a heated debate on I Bonds vs EE Bonds. Of course my first though is why not both? I agree with the spirit of the poster above that bonds are for safety, but he has much more strict requirements for safety than I do when he considers EE Bonds to not be sufficiently safe. Of course there is a limit to $10k per year in I Bonds, and the point of this thread started months ago was that TIPS have negative real yields and I Bonds don't, making I Bonds a "screaming buy", which is still true today. So the question I would ask someone like the poster above is what to do after you maxed out your I Bonds for the year? Buy negative real yielding TIPS, relatively high yielding EE Bonds, or something else? But actually I don't think w...
by Day9
Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?
Replies: 326
Views: 36725

Re: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?

Most people are criticizing this idea but Bogleheads accept the idea of "OMYS", One More Year Syndrome. I wonder how these two ideas interact. Perhaps CoastFIRE could be the solution to OMYS for some people.
by Day9
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 9446

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

For some reason factor investing gets a ton of attention here even though Jack openly criticized it and never recommended it. I have no idea why it excites people, and I wish people would just listen to Jack. A gentle reminder that Vanguard Value Index and Vanguard Growth Index were started when Bogle ran things at Vanguard. In an interview from around 20 years ago Bogle was asked how the "new" Small Growth Index Fund is consistent with his investing philosophy. He gave the example of someone who had a portfolio of blue chip stocks in a taxable account with high capital gains. Instead of realizing the capital gains and paying taxes, they could put new contributions toward the Small Growth Index fund to make their allocation more ...
by Day9
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

acegolfer wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:42 am
Uncorrelated wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:26 pm
You might think that if you select small cap stocks, you will obtain positive exposure to SmB and that is good. But there is a problem: in a 3 factor world, SmB actually doesn't actually work. The "excess" return of SmB is fully explained by small cap's higher exposure to market beta (general market risk).
2 q's.

1. Any academic literature behind your last statement?
2. If what you said is true, why is SMB still a factor?
Uncorrelated posted academic literature 13 posts above yours, on this same page of this thread.
by Day9
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The plain S&P600 index should be avoided. The S&P600 value index (vanguard: VIOV, ishares: IJS) is a fine small cap value fund. Just curious, why do you have such opposite views of the two (s&p 600 vs s&p 600 value)? I'm looking and comparing the funds, and over 75% of the entire s&p 600 index is s&p600 value, and therefore the broader index seems to generally track with those value funds, so they seem more similar than not. Biggest differences I see are small - lower fees for the broader s&p 600 index vs value, slight outperformance for the entire index vs value over recent years, slightly more diversification over sectors (and obviously more companies) than the value version, all of which, I think, could be ar...
by Day9
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 9446

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

...the case of commodities futures via PCRIX being a complete dumpster fire... I recently re-read Larry Swedroe's last post on this forum and he clarifies that all along he recommended that if you add a commodity-linked fund like PCRIX to also increase the duration of your bond portfolio, and if you had done that you would have come out the same because duration risk has done well since he made those recommendations. Furthermore he clarified that all along he recommended the small allocation to commodity-linked investments as a kind of "insurance" in cases where both stocks and bonds do poorly (e.g. stagflation) and thankfully we have not had that kind of environment since he was recommending it. You don't consider it a mistake i...
by Day9
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stories of speculation before investing
Replies: 16
Views: 1864

Re: Stories of speculation before investing

Welcome to the forum. That is polite of you to ask us our stories before sharing yours. But I am curious. Please share your story of how you crossed the $1 million mark then suffered a major loss.
by Day9
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Replies: 108
Views: 21528

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

Larry Swedroe just published an article investigating what kind of investor buys "lottery ticket" style assets. He was surprised to find that wealthy households are more likely to buy these kinds of assets. OP has a household income of $1 million. Good luck to all :beer
by Day9
Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennial Millionaire" a Gem
Replies: 20
Views: 4924

Re: "Millennial Millionaire" a Gem

"Each additional $10,000 after-tax you make through a side hustle, when compounded for 7% investment returns, results in an extra $400,000 over the course of 20 years." "By selling our car, we saved $11,500 each year. Making that decision over the course of 30 years of driving compounding for investment returns, results in a $1.1 million difference." --- As a 31 year old, I love reading things like this. Changes my perspective on being young and saving. I think the top one at least Is a bit of a typo....$10k at 7% would double at 10 years so $40k not $400k at 20years...however some nice nuggets no doubt I noticed that too and I assumed they meant contributing $10k each and every year for 20 years. Either way it's not cl...
by Day9
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 215
Views: 31472

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

Based on the title of this blog I assume the target audience is doctors. A quick google search shows the bulk of medical school student debt interest is 6.36%-7.41%. I have heard it is quite tempting for a young doctor to reward their 30 years of diligence by splurging on luxury goods and oversized homes. This is very good advice for the target audience.
by Day9
Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 77
Views: 9446

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

Soon Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft together will make up over 50% of the world stock market cap (not just US). Bogleheads will justify this by pointing to earlier times where a small handful of railroad companies dominated the indices, or even further back when companies like the South Sea or East India companies were behemoths.
by Day9
Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 6612

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

The solution to historically low yields and high stock valuations is to save more and work longer. But you can't make money or generate clicks with that advice. Bogleheads, stay the course.
by Day9
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think it's worth to slice & dice for lower ER
Replies: 11
Views: 1331

Re: Do you think it's worth to slice & dice for lower ER

Are there other low-duration options that the little guy has access to but large institutions don't? Stable value funds, I Bonds, high yield savings accounts. Besides the lower ER, I wonder what kind of benefits you can get by taking advantage of those.

Also using a bond barbell strategy changes the convexity of your bond portfolio. I suggest googling 'bond barbell' and 'bond barbell convexity' before implementing this plan
by Day9
Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking bonds
Replies: 78
Views: 9507

Re: Rethinking bonds

Bogleheads in the accumulation phase:

The solution to historically low bond yields and historically high stock valuations is to save more and work longer. Reconsider what are "needs" and what are "wants". Expect a longer career and plan accordingly, for example by sharpening your skills in a way you would not have done if you expected to retire sooner.

Do not replace safe bonds with risky assets like stocks, MLPs, convertible notes, junk bonds, emerging market bonds, or anything of the sort.
by Day9
Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119718

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

At the high end BofA thinks S&P500 could end the year at 4000! https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sapless-sell-side-surrenders-bofa-predicts-sp-will-end-year-between-2200-and-4000 (I actually think it can end higher.) Just want to call out that they say "between 2,200 and 4,000" anoop I would suggest you instead share the link to the Reuters article that this article links to in its second paragraph. The source you linked is a controversial one that always lists its author as "Tyler Durden", the character from Fight Club, along with a picture of actor Brad Pitt. It's a good practice to follow the sources and go straight to the horses mouth unless you think this article in particular adds value, but you did not indica...
by Day9
Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
Replies: 12
Views: 1194

Re: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?

Returns in the same time period 1986-2014:

Total US Stock market: 10.36%
Total ex-US stock market: 7.25%
Intermediate term treasuries: 6.87%

Thanks for posting that study. It is hard to rely on just anecdotal evidence because I've noticed in real estate investing, the successful ones are very loud. And due to its highly undiversified and leveraged nature, just by pure luck there will be some big winners.
by Day9
Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio
Replies: 106
Views: 9806

Re: Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio

columbia wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:44 pm
To a boglehead, rising rates on their bond funds are a good thing because long term it will result in higher returns for a buy-and-hold investor.
Example of this, in terms of real returns?
If you invest in a bond fund with an effective 10 years to maturity that yields 1%, and rates go up to 2%, then your $100 investment will fall to $90.98. But then 11 years later your investment will have grown to 90.98*(1.02^11) = $113. If rates had stayed at 1% then it would have grown to only 100*(1.01^11)=$111.
by Day9
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Wow that graph shows a 20-year period of underperformance. I don't have my Swedroe Factor book handy, I wonder what he wrote the odds were of that in that one table that shows odds of underperformance over a given time frame?
by Day9
Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]
Replies: 242
Views: 22303

Re: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]

There is definitely a correlation at least in this example between spread and volume despite your assertion of no correlation. You realize you can't compute a correlation with just one sample, right? Agreed. I have looked at several over the past few years. Each had similar results. In all the ones I looked at low trading volume ETFs always was associated with higher spread than high volume ETFs. I just presented one as an example. But as you say that does not compute a correlation. But you have supplied no examples at all to support your viewpoint. And none is not a correlation either. Are you aware of some study or research that supports your idea? If so please share it. I would prefer you to be right and me to be wrong. It would make re...
by Day9
Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I was having trouble deciding whether or not to just hold AVUV/AVDV without my DGS allocation, or to somehow factor DGS in at Merriman's recommended 50/40/10 split. Decided to split the difference - dumped DGS because I can only hold it in a taxable and turnover is high. Instead, added AVEM at twice the weight. So ended up with my tilt at: 40% AVUV 40% AVDV 20% AVEM Simple, concise, something I believe I can stick to. Yes, I'm missing out on emerging market small value, but that high ER of DGS was too much for me to stomach. Hi Matt just want to let you know I have the same allocation so cheers to both of us in this same boat and let's enjoy the ride together! I am 40/40/20 US/Intl Developed/EM. My portfolio is about half 401k half taxable...
by Day9
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=5&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=60&allocation1_2=40&allocation1_3=25&symbol2=VEDTX&allocation2_1=40&symbol3=VUSUX&alloc...
by Day9
Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]
Replies: 242
Views: 22303

Re: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]

So nearly two years later and after Vanguard has lowered the cost of VIOV to 0.15% vs IJS at 0.25%, anyone have a different opinion on these two than before? I think a lot of people are choosing for Avantis AVUV now. 0.25 expense ratio but most believe it has better methodology. You can read a lot about it in this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/search.php?keywords=AVUV&t=282533&sf=msgonly If you want to stick to an S&P 600 value fund and you benefit from stock lending; VIOV does a bit better in that regard. See: https://iborrowdesk.com/report/ I personally tax loss harvested from IJS to AVUV in spring at market bottoms, but it is not as clear as you say. AVUV has limited history but the portfolio visualizer factor reg...
by Day9
Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]
Replies: 242
Views: 22303

Re: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]

Rolltide wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:48 pm So nearly two years later and after Vanguard has lowered the cost of VIOV to 0.15% vs IJS at 0.25%, anyone have a different opinion on these two than before?
I have heard it said that IJS is better in taxable, and VIOV/SLYV are better in tax advantaged due to lower expense ratio. But since then I was told that was old news and VIOV/SLYV are better in taxable as well, so no longer any reason to use IJS. Sorry I don't have more details than this, someone please confirm or refute.
by Day9
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering
Replies: 31
Views: 5655

Re: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering

Interesting that when growth outperformed, it did so by much more than when value did. Kind of like the US/International chart. More evidence value may actually be less risky than growth . The idea that "value" stocks (which had a "margin of safety") are less risky than "growth" stocks was one of Benjamin Graham's central tenets. Such "safe" stocks were thoughts to be suitable investments for the provision of "widows and orphans" who could least tolerate risk. Graham's idea of "value" was/is thus apparently the direct opposite of the French/Fama/EMH view that "value" stocks have higher long-term returns than "growth" stocks and thus must have higher commensurat...
by Day9
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

If you're simply going to reject any evidence that undermines your hypothesis ("I don't care about debt ratings"), what kind of reply do you expect to get to a followup of "but what about all the OTHER risks"? No, I am not rejecting any evidence that undermines my hypothesis. I simply don't believe the debt ratings are a good risk measure. The bond issuers pay for the ratings,... Let's come up with some kind of test for that. Like we could look historically to see if companies rated AA would go on to default or go bankrupt less often than companies rated BB, who would turn out to be less risky than companies rated CC, etc. Or maybe we could look at if lower rated companies have to pay higher interest rates on corporate ...
by Day9
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF
Replies: 71
Views: 10713

Re: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF

What is so bad about buying individual STRIPS to save the small expense ratio and customize your exposure?

In taxable, I hear you must report "phantom interest". I would please like to ask: If you own individual STRIPS in a Vanguard taxable brokerage account, do they do this calculation for you and are you able to import seamlessly into software like TurboTax, the way you are with real coupons from non-stripped long term treasury bonds? Or is there an extra tax headache?
by Day9
Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

As an aside I noticed many bogleheads parrot "need, ability, and willingness to take risk", yet also do not believe there is any way to estimate expected return of stock investments. How can they determine their need to take risk then? I don't know about other people, but expectations are part of deciding an AA. I think most people do consider it, using some measure of historical returns as baseline and then applying a conservative lower number to it based on where we have been. Jack Bogle did this quite frequently. I don't have a problem with that at all. Yes I remembered Bogle doing that in interviews and I found this article that corroborates what you say. "Bogle’s formula is this: Future Market Returns = Dividend Yield +...
by Day9
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Expected portfolio returns are lower now that they were 18 years ago. And realized returns over the past 18 years were also higher than expected. Robert T: Are correlations between expected and realized returns equal for all assets? or is there evidence that lower risk assets have better probability of realizing the expected results than higher risk assets. If so, wouldn't it be better to accept lower but reliable returns than higher and unreliable returns. Yes "expected return" is the mean and as you point out there is a wide distribution of returns for riskier assets. On our wiki page for expected returns, Rick Ferri's estimate includes the standard deviation of annual returns. For example he put nominal expected return of US L...
by Day9
Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 619002

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Factorheads:

No need to get riled up. We are posting on a Jack Bogle enthusiast board, and his tell-tale chart shows he disagreed with our approach. So it is natural to get pushback on our strategy and we cannot expect them to stay out of this thread. With our strategy's recent underperformance againts US large growth, we should be grateful that the S&P500 folks are not "spiking the football" even harder than they are.