Search found 553 matches

by detifoss
Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you bank and why? 2023 Edition
Replies: 306
Views: 39652

Re: Where do you bank and why? 2023 Edition

Main Bank - Ally - No fees, only one minor issue with customer service. Decent enough rates and flexibility. Backup - Chase Bank - Savings account only, keep the $300 to avoid all fees. Nice to have a local bank for notary, cash deposits and if buying a car/etc, where cash or local cashiers check is needed (have had this account from the WAMU days) Been doing this exactly for at least 10 years now. Same experience as above. Likewise I have the account with chase bc WAMU blew up -> Chase. Have thought about going to Fidelity but its a large hassle for minimal if any gain from what I can tell. What's the hassle? it's a fair question! I have accounts at fidelity. I do all of my bill pay via Ally. So if I want to move enough $ to fido to make ...
by detifoss
Mon Mar 06, 2023 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you bank and why? 2023 Edition
Replies: 306
Views: 39652

Re: Where do you bank and why? 2023 Edition

runner3081 wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:30 pm Main Bank - Ally - No fees, only one minor issue with customer service. Decent enough rates and flexibility.

Backup - Chase Bank - Savings account only, keep the $300 to avoid all fees. Nice to have a local bank for notary, cash deposits and if buying a car/etc, where cash or local cashiers check is needed (have had this account from the WAMU days)
Been doing this exactly for at least 10 years now. Same experience as above.
Likewise I have the account with chase bc WAMU blew up -> Chase.

Have thought about going to Fidelity but its a large hassle for minimal if any gain from what I can tell.
by detifoss
Thu Dec 05, 2013 12:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Better to be at home with older or younger kids?
Replies: 54
Views: 6340

Re: Better to be at home with older or younger kids?

long time since I posted, but I guess this thread hit a nerve with me. I never new that chapin song, but boy does it resonate. my dad worked long hours, usually 60-80 hours/week, with about 2 weeks of vacation or less yearly. my mom stayed at home with me and my big sis until I was about 12 (if memory serves). now a few decades later i have my own 4 year old son, and some days (many days?) I wonder if I'm walking down the same path as my dad. to be clear, I'm working far less than his 70 ish hours/week (more like 50-60). I also get about 5 weeks of vacation every year. but my wife works about 25 hours/week and does most of the child rearing. I was always close with my mom, not at all really with my dad. he worked really hard to give us a gr...
by detifoss
Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value/Bonds/TIPS Proportions?
Replies: 12
Views: 2319

Re: Stable Value/Bonds/TIPS Proportions?

I had tried hard not to modify my IPS stated 50% intermediate treasuries and 50% TIPS for fixed income (I'm about 65% equities, 35% FI - cnsistent with 100-age). But I just couldn't do it. So I dumped about a quarter of my TIPS in my taxable account and bought I-bonds to make up for that amount over 2011-2013. I haven't bought TIPS since late 2009 early 2010. I bought as much as I could afford then. Glad I did. Now the breakeven I-bonds vs TIPS is like 22+ years - my TIPS were all maturing in about 12-15 years, where I-bonds beat them basically no matter what. The tougher pill for me to swallow was dumping nearly half of my intermediate treasuries over the past 6 months and buying an equal amount of the stable value fund in my wife's 457 pl...
by detifoss
Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your target allocation to TIPS? {Poll}
Replies: 83
Views: 16909

Re: What is your target allocation to TIPS? {Poll}

ugh I goofed
clicked 10%
it is 50% of my bonds 13% of my total portfolio
sorry for the oops
by detifoss
Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else experience a gigantic loss in real estate?
Replies: 66
Views: 10681

Re: Anyone else experience a gigantic loss in real estate?

Actually the loss is real
factoring in transaction costs and the of course the rent vs buy calculation , that money could have been spent and saved, or even grown, elsewhere

of course hindsight is 20/20, but the bottom line for those of us who got buried from 2006-now is that yes, we lost quite a bit of money in the process. Multiple years of after tax wages. But what is done is done. Not acknowledging the loss might be a nice behavioral gimmick, but it is not factual and can lead to other errors, especially later in life.
by detifoss
Thu Mar 29, 2012 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else experience a gigantic loss in real estate?
Replies: 66
Views: 10681

Re: Anyone else experience a gigantic loss in real estate?

I'm probably down about 200k, maybe more, since the purchase in 2006.
I've got about 250k in the condo, so I'm not underwater, but it sure hurts!

That said, we have no reason to move right now, so I can swallow the sunk loss pretty easily. Since my crystal ball is cloudy, and transaction costs are far from negligible, I won;t be catching the back end load on this one anytime soon.

Oh, and I was born in the US, unlike my parents. So I'm up somewhere between 1million and an infinite amount since birth :D

Most of us are lucky and reminding ourselves of it also helps in framing these seemingly large losses.
by detifoss
Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: December CPI-U is -0.25%
Replies: 12
Views: 6149

Re: December CPI-U is -0.25%

Mel Lindauer wrote:Remember, too, that if we were to experience a deflationary period, even the 0% I Bonds would have a positive real return. The larger the deflation number, the higher the 0% I Bond's real return would be.
true, though with truly severe deflation, cash would beat 0% nominal I-bonds as it is even more liquid
by detifoss
Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead food cost Poll
Replies: 85
Views: 7355

Re: Boglehead food cost Poll

liberal ^ 2

we spend way too little on food in the U.S.
the consequences are everywhere
by detifoss
Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the longest time you've actually "stayed the course?"
Replies: 49
Views: 4216

Re: What's the longest time you've actually "stayed the cour

3 of my 15 investing years

I added CCFs in January and March of 2009.

Before that I was on autopilot since 2006.

Before 2006 my course was changing every few months - ugliness was the predictable result!
by detifoss
Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's compare credit card returns for 2011!
Replies: 56
Views: 11441

Re: Let's compare credit card returns for 2011!

This was a very nice year for credit cards :sharebeer Chase AARP was the big one though I did less than I thought with it: total household spend on this card (all during 5% CB promo): $55k - much of it wasn't actual spending - paid taxes online plus a few other cash equivalent purchases Cash Back = $2800 (almost exactly 5% 'return') plus carrying a nice mid five figure balance at 0% until next month when I will pay it off one month before the 0% promo ends... Chase Sapphire x 2, Ink ($500 bonus, each card): $13k 'spend' Cash Back + Bonuses = $1630 (12.5% 'return') American Airlines Cards x 2: $4000 'spend' Miles = 150k - conservative approx 1c/mile (actually used it for business class fares redeemed at 4.5c/mile...) = $1500 (37.5% 'return')...
by detifoss
Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a risky bet - how much would you wager?
Replies: 82
Views: 6512

Re: a risky bet - how much would you wager?

I wish this was phrased as a % of net worth

e.g., my $100 bet is thankfully a negligible % of my net worth

OTOH, as a college student I would never have made this bet
by detifoss
Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a risky bet - how much would you wager?
Replies: 82
Views: 6512

Re: a risky bet - how much would you wager?

I have to treat this as a real-world situation. Otherwise it's like asking what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable, object, etc. In a sense I'm not sure you can truly preflight your reactions to a situation you're unlikely to encountered. There are basically three possibilities. Much depends on whether the person proposing the bet sets a limit on the amount or not. a) The person making the offer actually doesn't understand the arithmetic; is a child, or mentally impaired, or something; i.e. I would be taking advantage of him and taking his money. That's unethical and therefore I wouldn't do it. b) The person making the offer is conning me. He hopes, of course, that I will think the situation is "a," I am cheati...
by detifoss
Sat Nov 26, 2011 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On the current crisis
Replies: 202
Views: 16914

Re: On the current crisis

Great thread, lots of good discussion, yet reading through the entire thread, I couldn't find the one part of the story that continues to puzzle me... In 2008, when Fannie and Freddie were nationalized (conservatorship) I immediately thought to myself: 'wow, this is really bad and worse than I thought.' I also thought that the entire financial sector would be dropping like a rock, in the not too distant future . I have an AA, and I swore I would not adjust it, so I just watched my prediction come true, did not act on it, rebalanced my 75/25 portfolio like I was supposed to, and came through the first wave of the credit crisis in good shape. I did, however, tell myself that in the future, if I had true conviction, I could violate my IPS to p...
by detifoss
Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage rates so low. Borrow even if you don' need money?
Replies: 70
Views: 7769

Who is better off? Person A: $2M portfolio, $500K mortgage Person B: $1.5M portfolio, no mortgage Mathematically, I'm sure some will say they are equal. But not everything in life is about money for most people (although we do get a few posts on this board showing that for a minority of people everything is about money). There are non-financial benefits to lower risk for most people including better health due to less stress. People who enjoy risky situations are usually entrepreneurs (person A), investment bankers or brokers (getting to play with other people's money at little risk to their own personal balance sheet), or in the poor house due to repeated gambling/bad business decisions. Other people take risks playing sports or chess but...
by detifoss
Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Undoing my '08 Roth contribution?
Replies: 121
Views: 40449

Not sure whether to post here or to start another thread, but I'm trying to figure out my best course of action with regards to my Roth IRA's - specifically whether to recharacterize or not. Here is my situation. Tax Status - Married Filing Jointly Top Federal Tax Bracket: 33% (excluding income due to conversions, see below). In 2010, I converted all of our (previously) Pre Tax and Nondeductible IRAs to Roth IRAs. When I did so, I purposely opened a bunch of new Roth accounts expressly for this purpose, with the assets from our original IRAs transferred to different Roth accounts segregated by asset types. Well now, here at the end of September, I see that I have rather significant (or are they?) declines in most, but not all of these Roth ...
by detifoss
Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No alarm by Bogleheads over Grecian debt crisis?
Replies: 62
Views: 7748

I'm not sure why, time after time, people point to Greece's GDP as somehow the key piece of information in this whole issue. Everyone knows that Greece's GDP is tiny in the relative scheme of things. If Greece wasn't part of the Euro, this would be a non event. Period. Except, Greece is part of the Euro. That's the whole point. And because it was part of the Euro, it experienced major capital flows into its economy. That was when everyone believed that all Euro country debt should be priced, in terms of risk, exactly the same way (or thereabouts). So lots of Greek debt got financed, by... major Greek (big problem for Greece, not for everyone else), German, and French (big problems) banks. One other small problem. Greek bonds, like the rest ...
by detifoss
Thu Sep 15, 2011 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the economy right now?
Replies: 28
Views: 3691

I prefer the second great contraction (Rogoff).

It is the second balance sheet recession in the 1900's. The first one was pretty grim. It required a highly inflationary world war to get us out of it.

Japan is still stuck in their balance sheet recession.

So I was forced to pick a modern day depression, though I remain invested at my AA, and we are currently bumping along at very tepid growth. Exactly as would be expected during the long period of time that is required to repair unsustainable debts run up by households in the US, and by certain sovereigns overseas.
by detifoss
Wed Sep 14, 2011 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Launch of New Fidelity Index Mutual Funds
Replies: 127
Views: 26450

I guess I'm doing this a bit for myself but also to make this comparison readily available for us slice and dicers. Since Fidelity has no commission ETFs (of course Bid-Ask spread is an issues, as is premium/discount to NAV), I wanted to compare the new offerings to the (roughly ) equivalent no commission ETFs at Fidelity. To be clear, I'm comparing the ER of the investor class of the funds to the ETF expense ratio of the new funds. Domestic: FSSPX: Spartan Small Cap Index Fund (Russell 2000 indexed): 0.31% IWM: IShares Russell 2000: 0.26% FRXIX: Spartan REIT (Dow Jones REIT indexed): 0.26% IYR: Ishares Dow Jones REIT: 0.47% International: FSGUX: Spartan Int'l Ex US ACWI ex-US indexed): 0.24% ACWX: Ishares ACWI Ex US: 0.35% FPEMX: Spartan E...
by detifoss
Tue Sep 13, 2011 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Total Tax
Replies: 71
Views: 8229

My poll answer was wrong

I picked 40-50% but if I do this the right way: Total of all taxes/ total of all ncome (if you just look at AGI on your tax return this will likely be wrong due to the 401k contribution - need to look at Medicare wages of course), it comes out at almost exactly 33%...
by detifoss
Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do valuations influence future returns, and are they useful?
Replies: 42
Views: 4659

I believe PE 10 and valuations do matter. The problem is, I don't know how much, and when that 'mattering' will come into play. The relationship is well known, and very noisy. I think of it as just another example of risk, which is to say, the expected return of equities at a P/E of 10 is higher than the expected return of a P/E of 30, but the risk that is does not materialize is a requirement for the relationship to have lasting value. In late 2005 I read Swensen's Unconventional Success . At that time, my portfolio consisted of random hot mutual funds, MBS bond funds, and a few stocks that were popular then (Exxon, Google, Apple etc). After reading his book, doing my due diligence, and realizing the absurdity of my portfolio, I went ahead...
by detifoss
Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Options for No-Cost Refinance
Replies: 13
Views: 3932

Unless the market goes down to 3.125% no cost. Then your $2500 goes up in smoke.. no cost refi's are one of the few free lunches out there that puts all the interest rate risk on the lender.. I agree. I always do the no cost refinances. It is kind of wild that the lenders are happy to just look at your credit score and appraisal but not be bothered that you have refinanced already twice in the past 12 months. There is no downside right now to perpetually refinancing at no cost, sometimes even with the same lender. Question for everyone, apologies if this has been covered ad nauseum: Does "no-cost" truly mean "no-cost" to you? I.e., does the lender pay for the appraisal, new lenders policy, recording tax and transfer fee...
by detifoss
Fri Aug 19, 2011 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Options for No-Cost Refinance
Replies: 13
Views: 3932

here are my favorite resources:

1.) fatwallet finance forum mega thread:

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/788032/

2.) box home loans certain states only

3.) firstib

4.) penfed (though not lately) CU

5.) zillow mortgage finder

6.) google mortgage advisor

I only do no cost refis, and it does take some calling around and it is a bit of a hassle, but it works...

I'm dropping to a 3.5% 15yr at no cost (started the year at 4.0%, then to 3.75% now to 3.5%) out of pocket.
I could do better by paying closing costs, or even points, but I'm happy with this rate, and it will cost me nothing to get there, so no chance I'll be getting squeezed by inflated title insurance, other fees etc.


hope it helps and gl
by detifoss
Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 15863

well, I don't own any gold investments, and don't plan on buying any either (full disclosure: I own a CCF fund through PIMCO, but it seems largely driven by oil...). we have a smattering of gold jewelry we never wear, and i have thought of selling it, but considering it was for births, weddings, etc, it doesn't seem appropriate to do so - I guess if gold went to $10000 we would have to think about it though! anyway, after that long ramble I thought I would link this post http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/gold-treasuries/ I have like 500+ posts here and still don't know how to paste in a picture, bt if I could it would show the recent parabolic move in GLD has matched TLT at a correlation of 0.9. So in the past month, gold has moved in lo...
by detifoss
Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else buy equities today?
Replies: 102
Views: 13719

rebalanced into my small caps from my intermediate treasuries, finally hit my emerging markets rebalancing band Friday, put one half in Friday, another in today, and I'm still down 15+% on that new buy!

rebalanced into my CCF last Friday, getting killed on that as well!

oh well, long term investor, follow the rebalancing bands, eventually I will be rewarded (please?)

It probably took only 10 days but I may have also have just hit a rebalancing band on my REIT ETF. Man, this is all happening so fast, and unabated.

ugh
by detifoss
Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down a mortgage IS buying a bond (isn't it?)
Replies: 151
Views: 15356

4.) While default (strategic) is usually not a consideration for most with significant equity, under dire enough circumstances (earthquake happens, owner is without earthquake insurance, non recourse state = California!), the mortgage holder has the option of defaulting. As a buyer of bonds you are the creditor. When you hold a mortgage, you are the debtor. Thus in one scenario you assume default risk (exceedingly low with USTs, not so much with MBS as we learned..), in the other you are the default risk. HUGE difference. This is a huge difference but the difference is because a mortgage is a negative bond. It is a negative bond because everything is inverted. The money flows the other way and so does the risk. Going back to the example of...
by detifoss
Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down a mortgage IS buying a bond (isn't it?)
Replies: 151
Views: 15356

1.) liquidity matters for individuals with (somewhat) limited financial resources and obligations (expenses) over a finite time horizon- paying down a mortgage and buying a bond are thus not equal 2.) taxes matter - covered in detail above 3.) IF I purchased MBS in lieu of paying down my mortgage, then yes, they are similar (ignoring #1 and 2 above). Why? If rates rise, my MBS duration will drop as the mortgage holders refi (prepay). If rates fall, I will do the same with my own mortgage (prepay then refi). Same is true in reverse. So a buyer of MBS gets hurt in different ways by a falling vs rising rate environment (prepayment risk vs interest rate/inflation risk). A holder of a mortgage is 'helped' by a falling rate environment due to the...
by detifoss
Fri Apr 22, 2011 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why hold cash at all, why not use TIPS ?
Replies: 13
Views: 2632

Manbaerpig wrote:why not use Ibonds?


to quote the character Bull in "Night Court", when he was asked why he carried so much cash on him at all times... "... because banks get ROBBED, you know?!!"
my 'long term' emergency fund is in I-bonds

better than cash
by detifoss
Fri Apr 22, 2011 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on the Dips ?
Replies: 89
Views: 19523

You have to subscribe to my newsletter to get the answer to that. Without that subscription, this is IPS 'system' cannot be validated. Certainly no horrible sin in a +2% or -2% change in AA but no great benefit either. Let's say equities drop by 5% in one day. For a portfolio of $1 million, of which exactly $620k is in equities, that 5% drop represents a $31k loss. Let's assume the FI portion and RE portion are unchanged (unlikely I know). So there is $380k in that portion of the portfolio. The total portfolio is now worth $589k + $380k = $969k. To achieve the 64% desired equity allocation, the investor now needs (0.64*) (969) = $620k (same as before - it's magic!). This requires that $31k be sold from the FI + RE portions of the portfolio...
by detifoss
Wed Apr 06, 2011 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I overpaying in taxes? Help for a newbie.
Replies: 6
Views: 1377

unless you like giving out interest free loans
or if you underpaid so much that you faced a penalty

owing taxes = good

refund = bad
by detifoss
Mon Mar 28, 2011 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Point Would You Walk Away From Your House?
Replies: 184
Views: 22014

I wonder if those who feel no moral obligation to "big banks" feel differently about creating economic instability to our country as a whole. The last figure I saw stated 23% of all mortgage-holders are underwater and I shudder to think of the ramifications if they all decided to strategically walk away. Due to recourse loans (refis, recourse states, etc) and since there are financial ramifications to walking away, even for a non recourse loan, this just won't happen. I think one piece that has been ignored here is that shredded credit maters for more reasons thatn just your credit. Some employers use your credit history in their hiring process - thus the financial ramifications of walking away and the shredded credit can be much...
by detifoss
Sun Mar 27, 2011 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Point Would You Walk Away From Your House?
Replies: 184
Views: 22014

Although I was one who argued that walking away from a mortgage is not the same as violating the golden rule, I have to admit that hearing the specifics of the OP's situation irks me more than I expected. The home was purchased for over $1 million, doesn't represent an enormous part of his net worth, and he could pay off the home and/or live the rest of his life with cash. I know that the premise of the thread has always been that the home owner could afford to pay, and the home price and amount underwater have been discussed as a percentage of net worth. But, in my mind I was still imagining the stressed-out precarious-job-situation parent-of-many underwater homeowner, and not Daddy Warbucks. I'm not trying to blame the OP for being wealt...
by detifoss
Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Point Would You Walk Away From Your House?
Replies: 184
Views: 22014

If the original poster wants to declare bankruptcy, and relieve himself of the burden of his overpriced home, I think the only things that would stop him is the means test that, by his own words, he probably wouldn't be able to pass (as his assets are large).
mortgage debt, while non recourse in some states, is not discharged through the filing of personal bankruptcy.
by detifoss
Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Why Your Nest Egg May Not Last
Replies: 80
Views: 15862

I happen to like this concept better (especially since I'm an accumulator). I found this at my money blog (the blogger posts here but I believe anonymously) http://www.mymoneyblog.com/what-is-a-safe-savings-rate-how-about-16-62.html#comments Now saving 16-17% of your salary, inflation adjusted, is not necessarily easy, and of course, past performance and all that, but inclusive of the 1929- bear market, this savings rate and resulting ability to withdraw 1/2 of your salary, seems to be a very reasonable way of going about things. Unfortunately, the savings rate is around 5-6% in the U.S. and that is a recent change, as it was negative just a few years ago. The SWR of 4% always struck me as entirely useless because 1.) it certainly doesn't h...
by detifoss
Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Point Would You Walk Away From Your House?
Replies: 184
Views: 22014

I am curious as to what people actually mean when they say they would walk away given that they have the ability to pay. [Note that unlike rent which is normally pay in advance, mortgages are typically pay in arrears (you borrow the money and pay the interest due at the end of the month of borrowing).] 1) Would you move out the same day you made your final payment covering your last month of borrowing? 2) Move out after three months of not making payments without waiting for the foreclosure notice? 3) Stay in the house without making payments until you get a foreclosure notice? 4) Stay in the house and fight the foreclosure as long as possible and move out the day the house is sold on the courthouse steps? 5) Stay in the house and fight th...
by detifoss
Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Point Would You Walk Away From Your House?
Replies: 184
Views: 22014

Re: More Detail

Thank you all for the lively thread. Let's please stop talking about people's daughters...we're better than that. Here is more detail on my particular case. What would you do? *Age 39 *Bought house in 2006 for $1.1 million with 20% down *Current value about $675k. I owe about $850k. (I wouldn't consider walking at this level, but if it drops to $500k or so, I'd have a hard time not considering walking.) *I don't need credit. I can pay the rest of my life in cash most likely. *Currently my credit score is very good (around 800) and I pride myself on that, however, as mentioned, I don't NEED credit for anything. *To add insult to injury, I'm stuck at 6.125% fixed and can't refi to current lower rates b/c there's no equity Would you walk now ...
by detifoss
Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At What Point Would You Walk Away From Your House?
Replies: 184
Views: 22014

Since I don't have earthquake insurance, and since my remaining mortgage debt is about the same as my net worth, I probably would only walk away in the event of an earthquake that left my home uninhabitable and essentially worthless. Why? Well, I wouldn't feel great about it, but I have a family to think about, and I signed a contract which pledged my collateral (the house) against the loan given to me. The lender wants to see evidence of fire and other property insurance, but does not require earthquake insurance. That was their business decision. If they did, I would either find another lender, buy insurance if it was not prohibitive, or rent instead of 'buying.' I'm always disappointed when posters try to take the moral high ground on bl...
by detifoss
Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my commodity exposure is getting killed
Replies: 73
Views: 10120

funny, my CCF has been my best perofrming asset class over the time period since I have owned it (I bought in two chunks, Jan 2009, then April 2009)

I only have a 5% exposure to it, and I don't pretend to know if it will do everything it is supposed to do, but it hasn't hurt my returns relative to what I would have invested in with that $ at that same time (that 5% came from 3% of domestic (of which the split was 50/50 large/small value) and 2% of international equity holdings.

Who knows about the future. It took me 4 years to pull the trigger on CCFs. They are now part of my protfolio for the long term (at 5%) until I change my IPS.
by detifoss
Mon Mar 07, 2011 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who will buy treasuries when the Fed doesn't?
Replies: 49
Views: 6457

I'll be in line, just like I am every two weeks.
by detifoss
Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on a Swedroe-type portfolio
Replies: 268
Views: 79380

adlerps wrote:What happens to this type of portfolio if interest goes up 1 or 2%?

Paul
Of course it depends on the bond duration in the portfolio (if we are talking about nominal rates, not real rates, and nominal bonds, not TIPS).

But, I would counter with the fact that even with a 1-2% rise in nominal rates, and fairly long duration bonds, the 'hit' is going to be less severe than the type of 'hit' that an equity heavy portfolio (like mine!) can take under adverse market conditions...

Now if nominal rates rise by 3-5% from their current levels, and do so quickly, well, that would be a another story (and would almost certainly indicate other events were in play, events which most likely would keep a TIPS heavy bond allocation quite safe...)
by detifoss
Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips are not guaranteed To track "inflation"
Replies: 154
Views: 18156

In the end I suppose the solution is simple: If you don't trust TIPS, don't buy them.
That would be grand.

I'm willing to take my chances on the newly cheap ones that no one wants :)

for the record, 100% anything is generally a fool's bet...

but if I had to go all in on one investment, and all I needed to do to was keep up with my own personal inflation rate for present and future consumption, I know which investment I would go all in on

four letters, and not the yellow shiny stuff...

who knows if TIPS will 'get the job done?'
but they sure are a better known quantity than the other stuff out there
by detifoss
Sat Mar 05, 2011 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on a Swedroe-type portfolio
Replies: 268
Views: 79380

thanks for the update

I was surprised to see that the equity heavy portfolio did worse in 2010, and only slightly better in 2009. On net, since the onset of the financial crisis the tilted fat-tail minimizing portfolio had a shallower loss (not surprising) and a more robust recovery (very?) - surprising.

I would use this type of portfolio, when/if my willingness and need to take risk drops . It also seems rather well suited to the few years before retirement - presuming that the pile is deemed large enough to cut right hand tail off too...
by detifoss
Wed Mar 02, 2011 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips are not guaranteed To track "inflation"
Replies: 154
Views: 18156

the more poeople who believe the OP's statement(s), the cheaper TIPS will get.

If TIPS went to 5% real (above CPI-U), my guess is there would be more than just a few deep pocketed buyers.

That's the only proof of the 'guarantee' that I need.

Death and taxes. Those are guarantees in the U.S.

All else - take your chances. I'll put my money on TIPS.
by detifoss
Sat Feb 26, 2011 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax-Managed International may no longer be worth it
Replies: 14
Views: 4177

I came to the same conclusion a year ago.

I also tax loss harvested at the same time (I had a small loss on the sale of the fund). I took the early exit hit, then switched to a blend of other intl ETFs which better suited my desired exposure to small and EM, and still came out ahead (after factoring in the cost of the early exit, the 'gain' from the tax loss harvest, and the fact that my overall ER had not changed appreciably).

I did my analysis less rigorously, but came to same conclusion. These numbers are a much better analysis and they are much appreciated.

Thanks OP.
by detifoss
Thu Feb 24, 2011 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: paying off mortgage early is a form of market timing
Replies: 19
Views: 2861

getting a mortgage is actually market timing and it is a big all of a sudden shift in assets (if the mortgage is large) is shifting from a 30 year to a 15 year because of improved liquidity, better rates, and a smaller mortgage balance (creating a situation where the monthly payment on a 15 year is now within reach) market timing? or is just prudent? If I were offered a 4.5% 30 yr mortgage vs a 3.5% 15 year mortgage and could afford either one, and there was absolutely no difference in loan costs on the front or back end, would it be market timing to select one loan vs the other? No, it would be an asset allocation decision. Would you rather buy a 30 year bond that pays 4.5% or a 15 year bond that pays 3.5%? That's the sort of thing that IP...
by detifoss
Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Market Losses
Replies: 13
Views: 2145

Re: Bear Market Losses

I was looking at my investment spreadsheet today and saw a note I had made on March 9, 2009, the low of the bear market. At that time my total loss from market high to market low was 58.75%. That was on a 75/25 portfolio. Sometimes it isn't a good idea to track stuff like that too carefully. The bear market looks much more benign when I look at my annual returns: 2007: 4.4% 2008: -31.6% 2009: 33.6% So my first take away message is to not look too carefully at your losses during a bear market, especially if you have low risk tolerance. My second is that Adrian's handy little formula for estimating your tolerance for loss has no data behind it. You certainly can lose much more than 50% of your equity in a nasty bear. Not only this one, but a...
by detifoss
Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Frustrated with All-World Index
Replies: 32
Views: 5757

Nto sure I understand why you wouldn't just buy the ETF (or convert as ntoed above)... I assume the buy fees are to push investors towards the ETFs 1) Relatively small holding-so fees and expenses are relatively small dollar-wise 2) I don't need any of the benefits of ETFs-aside from avoiding the hassles imposed by Vanguard on traditional mutual fund buyers. 3) I don't have any ETFs, brokerage accounts, stock holdings etc. I don't want to deal with the hassle of another account just for one holding. 4) I don't want to have to worry about limit and market orders what the market is doing today etc etc every time I want to go to buy and sell something. The buy fees can't be JUST to push people to ETFs-there's no buy fee on large cap index, TS...
by detifoss
Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Frustrated with All-World Index
Replies: 32
Views: 5757

Nto sure I understand why you wouldn't just buy the ETF (or convert as ntoed above)...

I assume the buy fees are to push investors towards the ETFs
by detifoss
Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips auction next week or secondary market
Replies: 22
Views: 4065

VictoriaF wrote:
detifoss wrote:Also after 17 years a real yield of 1.90 vs 1.96 results in a 37.7% total yield at the end of 17 years vs 39.0% total real yield at the end of 17 years.

On 10000 that is 230 inflation adjusted dollars of difference between the two bonds assuming ytm is actually realized.
39.0% - 37.7% = 1.3% x $10,000 = $130.

Victoria
thanks for catching my error

you do know about the $100 bonus for actually holding a TIPS to maturity right? but even that would be wash. oh well, looks like one very nice dinner for two instead of two nice dinners for two

:D
by detifoss
Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips auction next week or secondary market
Replies: 22
Views: 4065

Also after 17 years a real yield of 1.90 vs 1.96 results in a 37.7% total yield at the end of 17 years vs 39.0% total real yield at the end of 17 years.

On 10000 that is 230 inflation adjusted dollars of difference between the two bonds assuming ytm is actually realized.