Search found 309 matches

by tyler_cracker
Tue May 23, 2023 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-platform cloud solution encryption
Replies: 9
Views: 540

Re: Cross-platform cloud solution encryption

It’s not the most user friendly, but PGP / GPG are still the industry standard.

Note that for any solution like this, you’ll want to manage a “private key” somewhere separate from your encrypted data.

7zip and other file format-level encryption may be better than nothing but is not robustly secure.
by tyler_cracker
Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Submit ?s for Annie Duke: Thinking in Bets
Replies: 18
Views: 1917

Re: Submit ?s for Annie Duke: Thinking in Bets

What did your brother do with all our Full Tilt Poker money?
by tyler_cracker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in May and Walking Away?
Replies: 106
Views: 15280

Re: Selling in May and Walking Away?

NateH wrote:I wonder what Sudhi is up to these days...
this character is from before my time (going back to the diehards days), so i couldn't resist a little folkloric research. s/he showed up here after the move and started a couple of... interesting threads:

The markets are in their unfavorable season!
The phony bull-market from 2002 to 2007
by tyler_cracker
Tue Feb 16, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIRA to Backdoor Roth, am I too late??
Replies: 10
Views: 1465

Re: TIRA to Backdoor Roth, am I too late??

you are correct that a Roth conversion is taxable in the calendar year in which it happens. so if you do it tomorrow, taxes are due for tax year 2016. i don't think anyone can answer this for you. what most of us would do is build a spreadsheet to model different strategies: what happens if you leave the tIRA alone vs what happens if you convert. variables to play with include your expected take-home pay over the next N years, expected tax rates, expected ROI from investments in the IRA, etc. some questions that might help you get better advice: - do you expect to remain above the MAGI limit for direct Roth contributions for the foreseeable future? maybe your spouse stays home for a few years to care for the new addition; maybe you cut back...
by tyler_cracker
Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was today's rally temporary?
Replies: 29
Views: 5552

Re: Was today's rally temporary?

bump for stunning conclusion to this cliffhanger from friday.
by tyler_cracker
Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Tax Loss Harvest on Really Good Day?
Replies: 12
Views: 1498

Re: Reverse Tax Loss Harvest on Really Good Day?

Doc wrote:Q: Who speaks louder Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi?
the thing about Janet is she's always Yellen.
by tyler_cracker
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?
Replies: 47
Views: 5528

Re: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?

Crow Hunter wrote: African or European?
i don't know that!
jebmke wrote:Tree, Barn, Cliff, Bank, Rough-wing?
found the bird nerd :D

(sorry livesoft)
by tyler_cracker
Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?
Replies: 47
Views: 5528

Re: Rebalancing bands, what is your CURRENT out-of-balance drift?

i don't generally like these "post a meaningless number from your portfolio" threads[1] but since i was just looking at this and since i <3 livesoft:

fixed income: +4.5%
us equities: -1.5%
intl equities: -3%

i've always rebalanced with new money, but since i am currently taking some time off work i'm forced to play decumulator. i'll rebalance once one of these numbers goes +/- 5%.


[1] what is your annualized return? what is your ytd return? what is your dividend rate? what is your bond allocation? what is your allocation to corporate debt? what is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow?
by tyler_cracker
Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 13819

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

surfstar wrote:I'm selling it all and buying gold. Or was that powerball tickets? :oops:
why not both? then your portfolio is diversified!
by tyler_cracker
Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What effects take place with higher Fed rates?
Replies: 13
Views: 2066

Re: What effects take place with higher Fed rates?

jpelder wrote: But correlation doesn't make causation!
ah, i see that you are not an economist either ;)
by tyler_cracker
Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What effects take place with higher Fed rates?
Replies: 13
Views: 2066

Re: What effects take place with higher Fed rates?

i am not an economist but i have observed that a rise in interest rates correlates with a rise in posts about interest rates.
by tyler_cracker
Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:13 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads Website - Security Cert Expired
Replies: 51
Views: 10074

Re: Bogleheads Website - Security Cert Expired

things i am thankful for:
- HTTPS
- server admins
- not getting paged for problems with ssl certs on thanksgiving :D
by tyler_cracker
Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get ready for crash?
Replies: 34
Views: 6571

Re: Get ready for crash?

saltycaper wrote:You should already be ready for a crash. You should always be ready. If you need to take action to "get ready", reconsider your strategy.
:thumbsup
by tyler_cracker
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads' Silent Majority
Replies: 255
Views: 50518

Re: The Bogleheads' Silent Majority

goingup wrote:It'd be great if all 44,632 popped in to say, "Here. Present and accounted for and staying the course!"
here. present and accounted for and staying the course!
by tyler_cracker
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684937

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

HomerJ wrote: You've been posting this for the past 3 years... Pretty much every thread you have posted has been doom and gloom.

But I'm glad you're happy that you're right for once. Still doesn't make you an expert predictor, and it still doesn't make it easy to predict "downdrafts"
:thumbsup
by tyler_cracker
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CFP Annual Portfolio Review - Key Points
Replies: 6
Views: 1697

Re: Vanguard CFP Annual Portfolio Review - Key Points

Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: - 2-3% Bond Return over next 10 yrs

- 5-6% Stock Return over next 10 yrs
are these nominal rates?
by tyler_cracker
Sun Aug 16, 2015 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is going on out there?
Replies: 43
Views: 8213

Re: What is going on out there?

Prague wrote:I just came back to the market this January after getting out on August of 2013.
what caused you to leave in august of 2013? what changed in january?
by tyler_cracker
Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backdoor Roth: How Long To Wait For Conversion?
Replies: 58
Views: 40525

Re: Backdoor Roth: How Long To Wait For Conversion?

i do not wait. i queue up the money before the first of the year to avoid the delay between my bank and my ira custodian. i contribute to the traditional ira on the first trading day of the year. i convert to roth the second trading day of the year.

i'm surprised at how many people mentioned trying to time the market in their answer!
by tyler_cracker
Mon Aug 10, 2015 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have an ESPP where you work...
Replies: 3
Views: 1219

Re: If you have an ESPP where you work...

In your ESPP, how many days between the end of the subscription period and the quick sale date? none. the shares show up in my account at the end of day X; i sell them on day X+1. I checked the past 15 years of stock prices on the end of each subscription period and on the quick sale date, two trading days later. On average the stock dropped 1.4% over this 2-day period, and it dropped on nearly 80% of these 2-day periods over the past 15 years. my employer went public just a few years ago and started an espp a year after that so i have only four data points. by my eyeball there is no significant effect. however, my employer is far from a megacorp and the stock price is quite volatile. I wonder if this is a common trend (drop in price immed...
by tyler_cracker
Sun Aug 02, 2015 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 6540

Re: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds

Thx for an excellent post, #Cruncher!
by tyler_cracker
Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 5223

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

no one else has said it yet so i will:

that is not what reactionary means.
by tyler_cracker
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Substitutes for WSJ Personal Finance and Investing Article
Replies: 16
Views: 3461

Re: Substitutes for WSJ Personal Finance and Investing Article

PGary wrote: Would be helpful to have mechanism to know when new information is available on the Bogleheads wiki page
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Special:RecentChanges is a start
by tyler_cracker
Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 6310

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock
no
by tyler_cracker
Fri Jul 10, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing vs Active Stock Selection
Replies: 50
Views: 6554

Re: Indexing vs Active Stock Selection

one of my colleagues gave a talk about basic personal finance. in it, he highlighted the importance of diversifying away from company stock. he made his point with a personal anecdote: fifteen years ago, he was a young engineer working for a promising early web company, USWeb. company stock was through the roof. employees fantasized about the mansions and yachts they would buy with their equity: Firmage is the 28-year-old founder of USWeb, a high-profile Internet consulting firm that merged recently with the Net marketing firm CKS to form a 1,950-person public company worth $2.1 billion. Clients of Santa Clara-based USWeb/CKS include Apple Computer, Levi Strauss and Harley-Davidson. and then this happened: Joe Firmage -- the Fox Mulder of S...
by tyler_cracker
Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cost difference
Replies: 27
Views: 4029

Re: Cost difference

livesoft,

i just wanted to say that i love you and to encourage you to ignore the haters and their helicopter parenting.
by tyler_cracker
Thu Jun 11, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 13953

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

IPer wrote:I re read some of the comments on this thread. You guys do not sound like investors. You sound like speculators.
i agree so i'll make one of these posts:

i had money to invest. the little number next to my REIT allocation was red, so i bought more. i feel good about it because i believe in my written plan and in the magic of correlations < 1, aka diversification.
by tyler_cracker
Sat May 30, 2015 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be possible? [Not lose money during 2008 crash]
Replies: 57
Views: 10106

Re: Can this be possible?

z3r0c00l wrote:The most likely answer is that they are lying.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
by tyler_cracker
Wed May 20, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard implements 20 character passwords
Replies: 69
Views: 14661

Re: Vanguard implements 20 character passwords

i don't have Duckie's option either. i'm a voyager fwiw.
by tyler_cracker
Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684937

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

TwoByFour wrote:What is the point of this thread anyway?
perspective.
by tyler_cracker
Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is so intelligent about Schwab Intelligent Portfolio??
Replies: 7
Views: 2073

Re: What is so intelligent about Schwab Intelligent Portfoli

livesoft wrote:It is all about marketing and "Intelligent" has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? It wouldn't be good marketing to call it the "Schwab Reasonable Portfolio", would it?
i think they learned their lesson from the great Fidelity Fund For Dullards debacle of '04.
by tyler_cracker
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz of Morningstar on backdoor Roth.
Replies: 2
Views: 1183

Re: Christine Benz of Morningstar on backdoor Roth.

your link didn't work for me (trailing slash in url). this one is fixed:

Backdoor Roth IRA? Avoid these six mistakes.
by tyler_cracker
Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active managers outperform the index by 0.12% before fees?
Replies: 22
Views: 3057

Re: Do most active managers outperform index before expense?

nobsinvestor wrote:An average means half are higher, half are lower. So it's 50% for that reason :happy
that's not what "average" means.
by tyler_cracker
Wed Feb 04, 2015 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best investment for $500
Replies: 31
Views: 3521

Re: Best investment for $500

VT

(Your message contains 2 characters. The minimum number of characters you need to enter is 5.)
by tyler_cracker
Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy High, Sell Low : Avoid Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 4719

Re: Buy High, Sell Low : Avoid Market Timing

Right. Buying equities and selling them to buy bonds is the same thing! it's market timing not because of what you buy or sell. it's market timing because of why you choose to buy or sell. I didn't act on just intuition, by the way (not that I feel I owe you any explanation whatsoever). (bold added) so intuition *is* part of the decision-making process? My net worth had increased considerably due to the good performance of equities in 2013, I've gotten a few years older, and so I concluded that my need to take risk had gone down, So, I lowered my equity AA. i agree these are all sound reasons to change your AA. but that's not what you said in your first post: In late 2013 the equities market seemed to be doing a little too well, and so I i...
by tyler_cracker
Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy High, Sell Low : Avoid Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 4719

Re: Buy High, Sell Low : Avoid Market Timing

baw703916 wrote: Seriously, do you see no difference whatsoever in what I wrote and the first paragraph of the OP?
not really, no:
op wrote: The market is on a roll doing great so you get greedy and buy more equities.
you wrote: In late 2013 the equities market seemed to be doing a little too well, and so I increased the bonds in my AA

you changed your strategy based on current market conditions, which is classic market timing.
by tyler_cracker
Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy High, Sell Low : Avoid Market Timing
Replies: 32
Views: 4719

Re: Buy High, Sell Low : Avoid Market Timing

baw703916 wrote: Whenever I read posts like this I think my brain must be wired backwards from everybody else's. In early 2009 I was happy to invest my IRA contributions in the riskiest asset classes I could find. In late 2013 the equities market seemed to be doing a little too well, and so I increased the bonds in my AA by about 10% (and have kept them there since then). This was in fact what my intuition was telling me to do.
i'd say your brain is wired the same as everyone else's because it still thinks it can time the market! it even invoked "intuition" so you'd feel comfortable doing it.
by tyler_cracker
Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k - Did I over contribute?
Replies: 5
Views: 1262

Re: 401k - Did I over contribute?

fwiw i had the opposite problem in 2012 (last contribution of the year cleared in early january 2013). all the tax forms showed it correctly and the irs never yelled at me. i agree with the dragonborn that you're probably fine.
by tyler_cracker
Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015
Replies: 46
Views: 11107

Re: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015

The comment seems dumb in retrospect as the Boglehead Bond Panic of 2013 turned out to be a big fizzle. But bond bear markets DO happen and just because 2013 was a very mild downturn in bonds doesn't mean that a bad downturn can't happen. I recall Dr. Bernstein's posts on this forum about the really awful real losses that bonds suffered during certain time periods. No Malkiel's statement is not dumb, you just have to look back further in market history than 2013. We have seen essentially a huge bond bull market since 1982 and it is hard for us to believe that things could be different. hi ned, the comment from malkiel which i quoted alludes only to interest rate risk. it would take an impressive parlay of rising interest rates over a protr...
by tyler_cracker
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015
Replies: 46
Views: 11107

Re: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015

in addition to what Leeraar quoted, this stands out to me as being pretty dumb:
Malkiel wrote: bonds at these interest rates are particularly risky, because you could take some really bad capital losses in bonds when interest rates start to go up.
nisi and others have debunked this piece of FUD repeatedly, as is known to anyone who has glanced through the dozens of Bondpocalypse threads since 2012.
by tyler_cracker
Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was it a mistake to move into PenFed 5-year CDs a year ago?
Replies: 61
Views: 9994

Re: Was it a mistake to move into PenFed 5-year CDs a year a

i think you should post this in the Biggest Surprises of 2014 thread -- a random on the internet has confused strategy with outcome! :shock:
by tyler_cracker
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor in Forbes
Replies: 37
Views: 8210

Re: White Coat Investor in Forbes

EmergDoc wrote:The goofy stethoscope one is probably better as it helps people see it's a site for docs, not canyoneers.
save that one for when you launch The Wet Suit Investor: Investing And Personal Finance Advice For Canyoneers, SCUBA Divers, Surfers, And [(removed) --admin LadyGeek].
by tyler_cracker
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3705

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

EarlyStart wrote:Yeah, triple clutz or something like that.
:D

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0#p2201443

whole thread is great but Jupiter's post is the piece de resistance
by tyler_cracker
Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3705

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

EarlyStart wrote: Image
this is a diagram of how to perform a figure skating maneuver, right?
by tyler_cracker
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in 100 Words
Replies: 19
Views: 2671

Re: Investing in 100 Words

rather than picking 100 words to invest in, i own the whole dictionary.
by tyler_cracker
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 2015 ETF IRA purchase date: 30 DEC 2014
Replies: 3
Views: 1342

Re: My 2015 ETF IRA purchase date: 30 DEC 2014

thx bbl. i'm exactly the kind of ocd that reads this thread's title and goes

Image

i usually queue up the ira contribution in my sweep account early anyway so i might try out your tactic this year. thx for posting :)
by tyler_cracker
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark your calendar for year-end fund distributions
Replies: 4
Views: 1634

Re: Mark your calendar for year-end fund distributions

mptfan wrote:"The price of my mutual fund dropped by 2% today, but the market was up, what is going on????!!!!"
i actually use these posts as a signal that my sweep account is about to have cash that needs attention.
by tyler_cracker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 293
Views: 40336

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

JohnnyFive wrote:try not to make broad generalizations (especially when you know nothing about the person in question...
JohnnyFive wrote: Holding all or most of your wealth in CDs is never, under ANY circumstance, the right thing to do. Never.
by tyler_cracker
Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity ETFs with some downside protection?
Replies: 4
Views: 771

Re: Equity ETFs with some downside protection?

imo this is like asking "what car should i buy for hauling lumber?"

the answer is that you shouldn't buy a car; you should buy a truck:
placeholder wrote:you normally do that with fixed income.