Search found 813 matches
- Thu Mar 21, 2024 6:18 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5351
- Views: 906915
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Market is pricing in higher risk for exUS markets and a higher expected return due to a higher discount rate Thanks...I think that's a good way to think about it. Do you agree that it's efficient right now, that the discount rate is 2-3x in ex-US? I think the pricing in the US would imply a discount rate that is too low, and not risk appropriate. Hard to argue against the market, but they certainly could be wrong; that’s what valuation mean reversion basically is An acknowledgment that what was deemed a sure thing is now less sure than it was. Lots of optimism in US stocks and pessimism globally; I think a large premium has now been priced in. It’s an historic spread in valuations and as long as exUS doesn’t massively disappoint its alread...
- Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:33 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
- Replies: 210
- Views: 23862
Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
The delta between cat food and keeping up a lifestyle is huge, I would bet quite a lot of Bogleheads have projected SS income around median US income.
- Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:12 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
- Replies: 210
- Views: 23862
Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
I think that probably falls under the addiction exception from the OP, it is really concerning how sports betting, option trading, and other gambling have become ingrained in the culture.
- Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:45 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? Karsten takes on "Beyond the Status Quo"
- Replies: 46
- Views: 6828
Re: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? Karsten takes on "Beyond the Status Quo"
A fair amount of academic papers suggest leveraged stock positions for young investors. Optimal and practical diverge at some point.
- Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:19 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Intuit's Mint App Shutting Down...Replacement Recommendations?
- Replies: 775
- Views: 146820
Re: Intuit's Mint App Shutting Down...Replacement Recommendations?
Fidelity Full View is the only service I've used to do a decent job with connecting to Treasury Direct and listing the individual bonds. Was happy to see this. I've just about fully migrated from Mint. Wasn't a fan of Simplifi, and Empower seemed pretty decent. In this case for my needs, Fidelity Full View hit the sweet spot.
- Mon Jan 22, 2024 6:49 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂
- Replies: 429
- Views: 43353
Re: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂
Happy Birthday Taylor!
- Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Detailed HOW TO link Vanguard and Fidelity Accounts
- Replies: 8
- Views: 3762
Re: Detailed HOW TO link Vanguard and Fidelity Accounts
Thanks so much for the step-by-step. The Vanguard website can be frustrating and this is just what I was looking for.
- Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:29 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: WSJ runs math on future returns from current highs
- Replies: 80
- Views: 12547
Re: WSJ runs math on future returns from current highs
Just finished Morgan Housel's Same as it Ever Was and it gave me some nice reminders about expectations with zero predictions. Recommended.
- Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: how much do you think you need to retire?
- Replies: 304
- Views: 63694
- Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:35 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?
- Replies: 123
- Views: 17952
Re: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?
Not retired but... The key for me was NOT to wear any old cotton T-shirts but to invest in some work-out shirts with sweat-wicking/fast-drying poly material . They are so much more comfortable when working out. I ended up buying more and now wear them to mow the lawn in the summer, etc as well. I like Under-Armor brand the best but all sports wear companies sell them (Nike, Adidas, etc.) and I am sure you can buy them from some discount brands as well. Personally - I have found brand matters (e.g. I bought some cheaper Champion brand work-out shirts and they started to fall apart after only a year or so). I agree, the high tech fibers are worth investigating, and at this point pretty cheap. I used to wear cotton t-shirts and find the newer...
- Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: When Did You Feel Financially Secure and Comfortable?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 30081
Re: When Did You Feel Financially Secure and Comfortable?
I am starting to feel ok that my expenses both with using VPW to establish a floor income, I am comfortable with that being a generous lifestyle and the recommended number feeling pretty aspirational, will have to look at that more closely as I start the glide path to retirement.
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:16 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Data unavailable at Vanguard [Temporarily unable to display account info]
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1044
Re: Vanguard Website Issues
It's a Vanguard message with a standard Chrome login, I am a Software Engineer so I guess I could look at the Network Tab but that seems like more then a problem on my end.
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 8:51 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Data unavailable at Vanguard [Temporarily unable to display account info]
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1044
Vanguard Website Issues
[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]
I am getting messages like this:
Our system is temporarily unable to display some of your account information. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience while we fix these issues. Please refresh in a few minutes or choose another page
trying to access my account at Vanguard many more times then I am comfortable with the last few weeks.
I love the Vanguard that Mr. Bogle represented but it may be time for me to move on to my main account at Fidelity. Feels like the end of an era.
I am getting messages like this:
Our system is temporarily unable to display some of your account information. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience while we fix these issues. Please refresh in a few minutes or choose another page
trying to access my account at Vanguard many more times then I am comfortable with the last few weeks.
I love the Vanguard that Mr. Bogle represented but it may be time for me to move on to my main account at Fidelity. Feels like the end of an era.
- Tue Dec 12, 2023 6:17 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?
- Replies: 657
- Views: 134543
Re: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?
Strictly from a returns standpoint selling Apple to buy indexes but there isn't a ton of regret there.
- Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15322
Re: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
It's an aphorism, that's the point.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 6:29 pmThat's kind of ironic given Jack himself changed his AA near the top of the dotcom boom.bradshaw1965 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 5:56 pmAlong the same lines, as Mr. Bogle said, "Don't peek". You do you.
- Wed Dec 06, 2023 5:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15322
- Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:15 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Different Standards for Small Value vs International?
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2226
Re: Different Standards for Small Value vs International?
Having looked at model portfolios on all of the visualizers it really is playing strategy badminton over just a few basis points over 20 or 30 years. Savings rate with any low cost indexes so overpowers portfolio returns for a comfortable retirement it is probably not much of a factor.
- Sun Nov 26, 2023 8:24 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How much tip is appropriate at highly automated restaurants?
- Replies: 103
- Views: 10750
Re: How much tip is appropriate at highly automated restaurants?
In general, if someone touches a bag, container or drink I tip a nominal amount $1-2 as a courtesy. Full service I tip 20-25%.
- Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: RIP Jack Bogle
- Replies: 71
- Views: 9128
Re: RIP Jack Bogle
Mel, thanks for all your and all of the Bogleheads continued education of the Bogle principles. It's much appreciated.
- Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:48 pm
- Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
- Topic: Thank you Boglehead Admins, Moderators and participants
- Replies: 36
- Views: 3879
- Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:55 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Questions for Barry Ritholtz, our next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
- Replies: 44
- Views: 6661
Re: Questions for Barry Ritholtz, our next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Should be fun. Thanks, Rick.
- Mon Sep 27, 2021 4:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Our Approach to FIRE!!!
- Replies: 24
- Views: 8136
Re: Our Approach to FIRE!!!
Glad you are excited. My only advice to people pursuing FIRE is to stop and smell the roses along the way.
- Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:29 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Portfolio Visualizer and 3 or 4% rule!
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1629
Re: Portfolio Visualizer and 3 or 4% rule!
On a positive note, starting retirement with 25 multiples of your current spending (reciprocal of 4%), is a pretty good amount of savings for the next 30 years of spending. The 4% SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate) method is flawed by its ongoing withdrawals (WDs) with no adapting to any of the changes in your portfolio value during retirement. Yes, that has the illusion of certainty due to its inflation increases. Do you really expect to precisely spend the same real (inflation adjusted) amount, every year for the rest of your life? Why would you not try to reduce spending after a severe market crash, or boost spending if the first decade of retirement had very good returns? SWR failed when high inflation occurred early in 30 year retirements tha...
- Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:08 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years
- Replies: 40
- Views: 4282
Re: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years
I always assume a 50% drop is just around the corner. I am not sure what my capitulation point would be, I was never tempted during accumulation and hope my 3.5% or so with adjustments will work fine with my allocation. 50% has been mentioned a couple of times in this thread, and it's mentioned frequently on these boards. The trouble I have with 50% is that that market has doubled in just 5 years . So you can go back 5 years and find people also using the 50% figure as a kind of "max drawdown." Doesn't seem realistic to me now, given the rapid runup. A 50 percent equity drawdown would merely wipe out 5 years of gains. So I envision much deeper than 50 percent. I'm not predicting, just explaining. Yup, 50% is just a rule of thumb,...
- Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:45 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years
- Replies: 40
- Views: 4282
Re: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years
I always assume a 50% drop is just around the corner. I am not sure what my capitulation point would be, I was never tempted during accumulation and hope my 3.5% or so with adjustments will work fine with my allocation.
- Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bogleheads now on YouTube
- Replies: 156
- Views: 48547
Re: Bogleheads now on YouTube
Nice work. Greatly appreciated.
- Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Working after Financial Independence
- Replies: 307
- Views: 32613
Re: Working after Financial Independence
I am doing something similar. Mainly about leaving on my own terms. It's a work in progress...
- Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:00 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Can I retire?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 4779
Re: Can I retire?
Can you take a sabbatical? Yes, as long as you want might be a better question to ask.
All of the scolding you'll hear with an open question like that doesn't amount to much. You've got the capability to make a lot of money but that can now be a secondary concern.
All of the scolding you'll hear with an open question like that doesn't amount to much. You've got the capability to make a lot of money but that can now be a secondary concern.
- Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:58 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The comfort of "good enough"
- Replies: 89
- Views: 13084
Re: The comfort of "good enough"
Well done!
- Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:15 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 39076
Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
"Won the game" means you have enough money that you can pay for every single one of your children and grandchildren having special needs care for their entire life. If you can't do that then you clearly haven't won yet. I suppose there are probably some grandparents out there who wouldn't compromise on their retirement if it meant having to pay for a severely autistic grandchild after the money was put into a persistent vegetative state after a car crash. But all the real world people I know would have no hesitation about spending themselves into bankruptcy if they found themselves in a situation like that. I doubt 100x is enough for that. People who think 30x is enough to insulate from everything that could possibly go wrong in ...
- Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 39076
Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
"Won the game" means you have enough money that you can pay for every single one of your children and grandchildren having special needs care for their entire life. If you can't do that then you clearly haven't won yet. I suppose there are probably some grandparents out there who wouldn't compromise on their retirement if it meant having to pay for a severely autistic grandchild after the money was put into a persistent vegetative state after a car crash. But all the real world people I know would have no hesitation about spending themselves into bankruptcy if they found themselves in a situation like that. I doubt 100x is enough for that. People who think 30x is enough to insulate from everything that could possibly go wrong in ...
- Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:37 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 39076
- Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:31 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 39076
Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Regret minimization on a sliding scale. A lot of people will have 100% equity out of habit and take a loss that's difficult to recover without it having much effect on their lifestyle. It's a challenging time to decide how much to de-risk. Bogleheads tend to carry things too far in my opinion but at the same time if it provides some existential comfort who am I to judge?
- Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:38 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?
- Replies: 151
- Views: 34998
Re: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?
You could do much worse. He's an interesting guy with a reasonable message. There is just not that much to say about sound investing and when you are a public figure you say the same things over and over.
Bill Bernstein is the most interesting investment adjacent guy I know, I listen to every interview he does and I do it even though I know all of the anecdotes he'll use because I know there will be a good tidbit in there.
Bill Bernstein is the most interesting investment adjacent guy I know, I listen to every interview he does and I do it even though I know all of the anecdotes he'll use because I know there will be a good tidbit in there.
- Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:46 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
- Replies: 73
- Views: 11170
Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
I expect lower returns because it is the single best time to be a passive investor. Amazing low fees for amazingly diversified products at a button click.
- Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:57 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Second career / semi retirement math
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1059
Re: Second career / semi retirement math
That's my plan. I'm at 25x annual spending without accounting for Social Security. I'm going to do a couple of projects a year and manage some passive projects. I struggled with letting go at 56, all of this may change but it's my post-COVID plan at the moment.
My main letting go piece was accepting that there would be some kind of healthcare access at a reasonable price up to starting Medicare. If that gamble doesn't pay off, I'll need to adjust and I feel capable of that.
My main letting go piece was accepting that there would be some kind of healthcare access at a reasonable price up to starting Medicare. If that gamble doesn't pay off, I'll need to adjust and I feel capable of that.
- Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
- Replies: 303
- Views: 28366
- Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Advice on not stressing closer to retirement
- Replies: 62
- Views: 4985
Re: Advice on not stressing closer to retirement
So many good voices. I would say I am just sort of drifting into it without thinking at all about the money and it feels pretty great. I have things that need tending and they will produce some income but it is now about finding the path to the next thing with a frugal heart and an active mind.
- Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Panic Sold All My Theme Park Stocks
- Replies: 35
- Views: 6070
Re: Panic Sold All My Theme Park Stocks
I don't understand how the forum can be moderated anymore. All my 2008 buddies and my 2003 buddies. Markets man markets.
- Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
- Replies: 46
- Views: 5658
Re: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
Prettt similar, A couple of projects a year and some family assets.CoastLawyer2030 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:43 amThis all gets into the classic argument of what "retired" means. Right now I work a 40 hour/week job plus run my solo practice for 10-15 hours a week. When I "retire" I will ditch the day job and just run my solo practice, preferably for 10 hours a week.bradshaw1965 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:09 amSlippery slope, I plan on having a small business that rises above the IRS definition of a hobby for the rest of my life.
The goal is to have just 3-4 corporate clients and that's it. There might be weeks or months with zero work.
- Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:09 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
- Replies: 46
- Views: 5658
- Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
- Replies: 421
- Views: 36627
Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Was health care for a long time. There is a large contingent of folks who out conservative each other, if you aren’t concerned about legacy it seems mostly to be a skewed sense of the statistical nature of mortality in my opinion.William Million wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:41 pm Seems there's a cult-like subculture on Bogleheads insisting 4% SWR is too high. Seems to reflect the inherent conservatism of Bogleheads rather than any empirical studies.
- Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:28 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 15x expenses, then SS
- Replies: 95
- Views: 9447
Re: 15x expenses, then SS
I don't normally do comparisons but I am in your ballpark and plan on spending half what you are spending. To each his own but take a hard look at your spending more then your portfolio in my opinion.
- Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:27 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
- Replies: 124
- Views: 17062
Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Slowing down a whole lot...
- Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:11 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: William Bernstein on Masters in Business
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2750
Re: William Bernstein on Masters in Business
Barry gets great guests, I'll deal with the verbal tics.
- Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:36 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Should I come out of retirement?
- Replies: 66
- Views: 8346
Re: Should I come out of retirement?
In similar situation and that's my plan. I would defer this decision because you can.Watty wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:51 pm I just found out that my next door neighbor has COVID that she likely got at work.
You are in the middle of a pandemic and you can afford to differ any decision about going back to work or not.
Even though your numbers look great I would put the decision about going back to work on the back burner until the pandemic is under control and things are at least halfway normal again.
- Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:32 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
- Replies: 307
- Views: 36439
Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
I can't really wrap my head around the idea of LeanFIRE or how that information is useful to me. If I can't have the lifestyle I want to have, I am not ready to retire early and I'm not exactly financially independent, either. If there is some unforeseen circumstance that occurs in my life that makes working not feasible or desirable I can assess whether retirement on a reduced budget is possible at the time. But it's nothing I feel like I'm going to plan for in advance. If those circumstances even arose, I'd probably make other choices: leave a VHCOL area, consider move in with family, etc, etc. But I've got zero interest in planning for a lifestyle that does not seem reasonably likely and that I don't want. (It's okay if this information...
- Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:09 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
- Replies: 307
- Views: 36439
Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Since I get to define my own: Lean fire = id still look for a job if I got fired from work, but I wouldn’t starve. Fire = I probably wouldn’t look for a job if I got fired. Fat fire = the negative marginal utility of continuing to work for money subtracted from the money earned would be negative. So I guess fire = $200k / $5m assets or so. Lean fire is anything less than that. Make it $2m - $3m since that’s where I am now. Fat fire is probably $400k / $10m assets. A bit after age 50 depending based on my projections (been tracking for 20 years; they’re pretty good at this point). I used to think I’d keep working until 65 and have a pile in the range of $30m “just to be” uhnw; a goal since I grew up pretty darn poor. But I can’t for the lif...
- Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:25 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
- Replies: 307
- Views: 36439
Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
This has been a really useful thread for me. Thanks to all that participated. It helps see fellow Bogleheads mindsets.
- Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:07 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Intern'l Living's 2021 retirement countries
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1999
Re: Intern'l Living's 2021 retirement countries
I have family in Mexico and have thought about spending significant time in a colonial city like San Miguel de Allende.
I've also thought about making Spain or Portugal a base of operation to explore Europe.
SE Asia has always called my name but seems a little more complicated then the last time I thought about it.
I have no illusions about the tradeoffs necessary, I probably will not full time expat for the rest of my life.
I've also thought about making Spain or Portugal a base of operation to explore Europe.
SE Asia has always called my name but seems a little more complicated then the last time I thought about it.
I have no illusions about the tradeoffs necessary, I probably will not full time expat for the rest of my life.