Search found 534 matches

by gt4715b
Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a new phone, looking for dual-sim
Replies: 14
Views: 1422

Re: Need a new phone, looking for dual-sim

I would just get a new phone. Something like the Google Pixel 7. It has 2 ESim slots, and is an overall good phone.
by gt4715b
Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 12574

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

Yes, you can do it. A 60/40 portfolio would throw off ~2.5% in income/dividends by itself. No one has really talked about a important issue, which is taxes. It looks like you're open to moving, so you should look for states with low income and/or property taxes. You'll also want to look at that state's ACA program; some are better than others. Buying a modest house will reduce your fixed costs, which lessens SORR risk vs. renting, but the effect is modest. Read here for a detailed article about the topic. You'll want to manage your income to maximize your ACA premiums. You don't want your income to fall below the threshold where you would qualify for Medicaid. But you don't want it to be high enough where you start to lose a significant por...
by gt4715b
Sat Mar 02, 2024 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two ETF portfolio for taxable accounts: 60% equities, 40% fixed income; my pick: 60% DFAW, 40% GOVT
Replies: 6
Views: 1245

Re: Two ETF portfolio for taxable accounts: 60% equities, 40% fixed income; my pick: 60% DFAW, 40% GOVT

If I were in decumulation it would be:

60% VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF) - 0.04% ER
40% RSBT (Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF) - 0.97% ER

Total allocation would be 60% world equity (FTSE Global All Cap Index), 40% US bonds (Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), 40% managed futures (Soc Gen Trend Index)

The blended ER would be 0.41%, which is about as high as doing a tilted core equity strategy, but you get managed futures exposure which helps you in an inflationary environment where both stocks and bonds have subpar returns, like in 2022.
by gt4715b
Wed Feb 14, 2024 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any studies to refute dividend yield & chill?
Replies: 161
Views: 12307

Any studies to refute dividend yield & chill?

I'm looking for papers that have looked specifically into SWRs in the context of an stock dividend, income-focused portfolio.
by gt4715b
Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 75% of market in 10 companies? (Error in Forbes on an AI bubble?)
Replies: 5
Views: 1149

Re: 75% of market in 10 companies? (Error in Forbes on an AI bubble?)

The top ten companies are around 29% of the total market and 32% of the S&P 500. It's probably a typo. They probably meant 25% instead of 75%.
by gt4715b
Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological Aversion to Decumulation Phase
Replies: 73
Views: 7446

Re: Psychological Aversion to Decumulation Phase

What's your proposed withdrawal rate?

You might be a candidate for doing an income-based portfolio. Even though it's just mental accounting, some people like the idea of just spending dividends + interest. A 60/40 world stock + intermediate bond portfolio currently throws off 3.1%/year.
by gt4715b
Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
Replies: 102
Views: 120157

Re: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling

Florida Orange wrote: Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:42 pm A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel.
Oh yeah, that's a good idea.
by gt4715b
Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
Replies: 102
Views: 120157

Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling

Especially during the pandemic I saw several people I know that were buying the meme stocks justify their purchase by saying something to the effect that "all investing is gambling anyway, so it doesn't matter if I bought this."

I'm looking for the best resources to recommend to someone to convince them that this is not the case. I think the popular personal finance/investing books focus more on top level concerns. I'm looking for a simple, but detailed explanation of what investing in equities really is.

The best I have so far is Investing for Growth by Terry Smith. Is there anything else out there? Thanks!
by gt4715b
Tue Dec 26, 2023 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Southern Spain in March
Replies: 47
Views: 4843

Re: Southern Spain in March

I think you should drop a day from Malaga and Cordoba entirety. Malaga is underrated, but not underrated :happy

Cordoba is one of those places that gets on the tourist itinerary, but typically underwhelms, especially considering the opportunity cost of not being in Granada or Sevilla. I would do:

March 1: arrive in Madrid, train/plane to Malaga
March 2-3: Malaga ( skip Ronda; it's nice, but small and takes too much time out of your short trip)
March 4-5: Grenada
March 6-8: Seville
March 9: train to Mardrid (If you want you could stop in Cordoba here and see La Mezquita and have lunch/dinner)
March 10: depart Madrid

This way you'll have more time and won't be as rushed.
by gt4715b
Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
Replies: 210
Views: 144293

Re: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M

tj wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:34 pm
Anyone who retires at 40 or later will have social security start no later than 30 years from the retirement date, and the closer one is to 62 when they retire, the sooner that extra income stream could start. That's ignored in the SWR studies and seems relevant.

For someone retiring at 40 Social Security doesn't meaningfully change SWR, especially for someone targeting a high annual spending level. Even taking it at 62 means 22 years of relying solely on the portfolio. Success or failure of a given scenario is largely determined by the first 10-15 years of returns.

Obviously, the closer to 62 one retires and the lower the annual spending, the more impact SS has on SWR.
by gt4715b
Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect launches BOXX: 1-3 Month Box Spread ETF
Replies: 308
Views: 44861

Re: AlphaArchitect launches BOXX: 1-3 Month Box Spread ETF

Lyrrad wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:38 am I wonder if there will be enough demand or liquidity for a longer term box spread ETF.

From what I can tell, they seem to be available for up to 5 years, so someone would presumably be able to create an ETF with similar characteristics as a medium-term Treasury ETF, though perhaps there's not much demand for such a product.
I think Wes talked about this on Meb Faber's podcast. I think you're right; 5 years should be doable.

As interest rates go down there should be more interest in a medium term BOXX-like ETF.
by gt4715b
Sat Nov 25, 2023 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax 2023 offer
Replies: 282
Views: 51779

Re: TurboTax 2023 offer

whodidntante wrote: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:25 pm I love how many posts the potential to save $25 once a year generates here.
I don't like the idea of paying for TurboTax so $35 is noticeably easier to swallow that $60. :D
by gt4715b
Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Strategy Review (For FIRE)
Replies: 11
Views: 2235

Re: Investing Strategy Review (For FIRE)

Get rid of JEPI. It's going to underperform SPY long-term, pre-tax. Add in the fact that the covered call income is taxed at ordinary income rates and this turns into a real loser in a taxable account.
by gt4715b
Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The apparently massive effect of adding only 5% bonds to a 100% stock portfolio in Monte Carlo simulations
Replies: 5
Views: 1587

Re: The apparently massive effect of adding only 5% bonds to a 100% stock portfolio in Monte Carlo simulations

I'm not quite sure what you're asking, but:

1. The 5% vs 10% is just noise. There's not a statistically significant difference between those portfolios.

2. For the classic Trinity study (30 yr, capital depletion) anything between 50% and 100% stock had more or less equally probable levels of success.

3. For a longer time frame (60 yr, capital preservation) you get monotonically better results with increased stock percentage, although the gains tend to decrease above 70% stocks.

It sounds like you're are more in the second situation. So yeah, over a 40 year time frame you're going to end up with a bigger portfolio with 100% stocks.

You really only need bonds if you're targeting a shorter scenario with capital depletion.
by gt4715b
Fri Nov 03, 2023 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good options for places to travel in August?
Replies: 7
Views: 1138

Good options for places to travel in August?

I'm trying to plan for travel in August. It's normally a time I avoid, especially in Europe, as it's high season. But I'll have the time available to travel so I'm looking for ideas. The main considerations are somewhere that isn't in high season, not super hot (~85F preferable), and a low cost of living.

Right now, some options:
Varna, Bulgaria
Porto, Portugal
San Sebastian, Spain

Any suggestions; they don't have to be in Europe, but not South America since I'll already be coming from there.
by gt4715b
Wed Oct 25, 2023 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the mechanism for paying Roth conversion taxes from the conversion itself?
Replies: 12
Views: 1642

What's the mechanism for paying Roth conversion taxes from the conversion itself?

I'm doing some advanced planning for Roth conversions and I was wondering how I would go about paying the taxes on the conversion from part of the conversion itself. As an example, if I want to do a $100k conversion and I'll have $12,000 in taxes due how do I get access to the $12,000?

I ask because when I do the conversion for my backdoor Roth (at Fidelity) I don't see an option to hold out any money.
by gt4715b
Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?
Replies: 5
Views: 874

Re: Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?

I'm planning my retirement tax strategy and in search of any spreadsheet/software that could help. Right now the plan is to do some capital gain harvesting then Roth conversions, but it'd be nice to compare several options. Any ideas? Depending on your expectation for future marginal tax rates, skipping the capital gain harvesting and going directly to Roth conversions might be slightly better. See the '0% LTCG or t->R' tab in the personal finance toolbox spreadsheet. The 'Calculations' tab in that spreadsheet can be useful for "this year's" tax planning. Depending on where you are in retirement, one or more of the following articles may be useful: Roth conversion Roth Conversion and Capital Gains On ACA Health Insurance Roth Con...
by gt4715b
Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?
Replies: 5
Views: 874

Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?

I'm planning my retirement tax strategy and in search of any spreadsheet/software that could help. Right now the plan is to do some capital gain harvesting then Roth conversions, but it'd be nice to compare several options. Any ideas?
by gt4715b
Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs
Replies: 119
Views: 15440

Re: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs

alex_686 wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:54 am
gt4715b wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:39 am You're paying 0.11% for the wrapper on top of the underlying ETFs, so roughly 0.24% all in, guaranteeing yourself -0.20% alpha per year. Is it really so hard to rebalance 2-3 ETFs?
Nope, just 0.11%. Reported fees must be all in.

And that’s not the way to calculate alpha either. Tracking Error would be the better metric.
Ok, well that's good. It doesn't match the weighted ER of the underlying funds though. And they still should have just used ITOT/IXUS.

Reasonable people can disagree on how to define alpha. Tracking error to me is from replication issues or portfolio tilt vs. a benchmark. Expense ratios to me are the purest form of alpha.
by gt4715b
Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs
Replies: 119
Views: 15440

Re: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs

You're paying 0.11% for the wrapper on top of the underlying ETFs, so roughly 0.24% all in, guaranteeing yourself -0.20% alpha per year. Is it really so hard to rebalance 2-3 ETFs?

Also noted that they're using IWB/IWM (0.19% ER) for US instead of ITOT (0.03% ER). Not cool.
by gt4715b
Fri Oct 13, 2023 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on preparing to FIRE in next 1-2 years
Replies: 28
Views: 5947

Re: Advice on preparing to FIRE in next 1-2 years

Do you plan on being a resident in an foreign country, meaning staying 183 days or more in a calendar year? If so, this adds a whole other layer of complexity, dealing with visas, taxes, etc. Most places have higher than taxes than the US, btw.
by gt4715b
Sat Sep 23, 2023 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving on Seafoood! Suggestions
Replies: 21
Views: 3020

Re: Saving on Seafoood! Suggestions

Search for the local distribution center, the place where seafood comes into the area. You might be able to buy there or there's sometimes a retail shop nearby that gets its products directly from the distribution center, so the prices are good.

Also, I've found Trader Joes' frozen seafood prices pretty good.
by gt4715b
Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Carry on luggage
Replies: 40
Views: 6893

Re: Carry on luggage

Away and Monos are two brands making high quality, if expensive, hard sided bags. They both have US and International sized carry ons.
by gt4715b
Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Efficient proof reading tool/process?
Replies: 55
Views: 3662

Re: Efficient proof reading tool/process?

For proofreading, definitely ChatGPT4. You should give it the instruction to only make grammatical, spelling or punctuation changes.
by gt4715b
Tue Aug 08, 2023 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Down vs Money saved for Morgage
Replies: 20
Views: 2425

Re: Money Down vs Money saved for Morgage

champton89 wrote: Tue Aug 08, 2023 3:46 pm It will definitely feel weird going from homewowership to renter. It sure beats being in a large financial situation you're not sure you can afford though.
Don't feel weird. People have been told this idea that owning a home is always better than renting, but it's not necessarily true. I'm selling my house to rent and my net worth is going to skyrocket compared to staying in the house.

Short-term treasuries is a good option. You could add corporate bonds if you wanted to take on a little more risk.

BSV - Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (1-5 yr gov't & investment grade bonds) - ER 0.04%
VGSH - Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (1-3 yr gov't bonds) - ER 0.04%
by gt4715b
Fri Jul 14, 2023 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
Replies: 69
Views: 5589

Re: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]

Hopefully this can become a mega thread and useful to others. Can folks who live abroad, but still maintain a US residence share their experience and tips? Let’s just say live abroad for 6 months and US for 6 months. If all goes well this could be us in 5 years time! Top of mind: - buying a health insurance that works out ok. Cigna Global? Etc - I actually think I could save money. Cost of living in Spain on a recent trip was quite reasonable, even in touristy areas. - it’s possible we could completely move out of the SF Bay Area, but only if the kids/family move out too. This won’t be determined for 10-15 years down the road. Until then plan is to keep our house/cars/all possessions. I'm doing some research on this as well and this is the...
by gt4715b
Thu Jul 13, 2023 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I tip painters
Replies: 68
Views: 4834

Should I tip painters

I'm having my 3 story townhouse (1600 floor sq. ft) painted. It's 3 levels on a slab with vaulted ceilings on the top level. Anyway, it's going to take 2 guys 5-6 days to finish it (there are non-significant drywall repairs also).

Anyway, I'm thinking I should tip them $50 each at the end of the job. Is this common?
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
Replies: 8
Views: 1110

Re: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?

MrJedi wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:03 pm The extra 10k at 10% ordinary income tax also pushed some of your QD/LTCG into 15% rate. The QD/LTCG sit on top of your ordinary income.
Got it! Thanks!
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
Replies: 8
Views: 1110

Re: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?

https://engaging-data.com/tax-brackets/?fs=0&reg=13000&cg=40000&yr=2022 https://engaging-data.com/tax-brackets/?fs=0&reg=23000&cg=40000&yr=2022 Does this match the numbers that you are seeing? Going from Gross Income: $53,000 ($13,000 regular + $40,000 capital gains) Standard Deduction: $12,950 Taxable Income: $40,050 Total Tax: $5 to Gross Income: $63,000 ($23,000 regular + $40,000 capital gains) Standard Deduction: $12,950 Taxable Income: $50,050 Total Tax: $2,261.25 using 2022 tax brackets and single filing status. Yeah, those are basically my numbers. MrJedi explained what's going on in that the QD/CG sit on top my taxable income. The marginal tax rate on extra withdrawals seem high, but you still end up better ...
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
Replies: 8
Views: 1110

Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?

I'm trying to model the most tax friendly method for funding my retirement. I understand the worksheet allows you to get taxed on qualified dividends and cap gains at a lower rate than regular income but the exact mechanics are alluding me at the moment. In TurboTax I modelled: 40k in QD / Cap Gains (up to the 0% cap gain tax threshold) 13k IRA withdrawal (standard deduction) This gave me $0 tax. I understand this. Then I modelled taking an extra $10k IRA withdrawal: 40k in QD / Cap Gains (up to the 0% cap gain tax threshold) 23k IRA withdrawal (standard deduction + $10k) This gave me $2300 tax, or an effective marginal tax rate of 23% on the extra $10k. So it seems that the tax isn't quite as simple as computing the tax on QD / Cap gains a...
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?
Replies: 3
Views: 366

Re: How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?

MrJedi wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:03 pm Qualified dividends from Vanguard

https://advisors.vanguard.com/tax-cente ... end-income
That's exactly what I was looking for! Thanks.
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 10, 2023 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?
Replies: 3
Views: 366

How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?

I'm basically trying to get an idea of the dividend and capital gain breakdown for VTI. I'm assuming it doesn't distribute cap gains, but I'm interested in how much of the dividends are qualified. Basically, I'm looking for what would appear on a 1099-DIV. Does this information exist anywhere?

EDIT: I'd also like to know the breakdown for VXUS. Are there foreign taxes withheld, etc.
by gt4715b
Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
Replies: 69
Views: 5589

Re: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]

I’ve researched Europe extensively and it’s very different if you are “resident” vs. “non-resident”. If you are resident (i.e. have an appropriate visa and live there over 6 mo/year), you usually get to participate in their national health service. This is often a fraction of the cost of US health insurance. If you are non-resident, you need some sort of global health plan (possibly also with US coverage). This is not necessarily true everywhere. Specifically in Spain, which OP mentioned, with the Non-Lucrative visa which is the one most likely to be issued, you have to purchase private health insurance, but it still is relatively cheap. Becoming a resident somewhere is a whole different thing than what OP is proposing and way more complic...
by gt4715b
Sat Jul 08, 2023 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
Replies: 69
Views: 5589

Re: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]

Can folks who live abroad, but still maintain a US residence share their experience and tips? Let’s just say live abroad for 6 months and US for 6 months. If all goes well this could be us in 5 years time! What you're proposing isn't really Geoarbitrage, since you're not actually moving. It's more like travelling cheaply. Everything is relative to your lifestyle. The only home expenses that are going to go down will be utilities, food, gas + mileage based maintenance, switching to a lower cell phone, gym memberships, etc. Unless you spend a lot eating out you'll be unlikely to keep your expenses from going up. Are you still paying a mortgage? Anyway, the key to keeping costs down is slower travel. Ideally, you'd want only big flight, e.g.,...
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?
Replies: 8
Views: 929

Re: Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?

muffins14 wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:52 am Do you need to track CPI every 6 months with zero volatility, or can you accept some months positive and some months negative, such that your average over 5-10 years beats inflation?

In other words, can you accept any fluctuation in portfolio value? If not, why not?
It doesn't have to be every 6 months, but I wouldn't want to have a negative real return over 12-18 months.

My problem is that BIL or STIP would have gotten destroyed in the 1970's.

I'm looking for the best "anchor" for my portfolio. I don't think what I'm looking for exists and I don't know if it's even possible to financially engineer such a product.
by gt4715b
Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?
Replies: 8
Views: 929

Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?

Obviously iBonds guarantee at least 0% real return always, but the income limits this isn't practical for most people. So I was wondering what would be the single ETF that would be closest to iBonds? I guess I'm basically for an ETF that tracks CPI :D

BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF) - short-term real interest rates can spend a long time below 0%
STIP (iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF) - short-term real interest rates can spend a long time below 0%\
LTPZ (PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF) - less chance of real rates <0%, but lots of interest rate risk

If a single ETF isn't possible is there a combination of ETFs that could accomplish this?
by gt4715b
Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to estimate dividend yields?
Replies: 9
Views: 759

Re: How to estimate dividend yields?

Just take the last 12 months' dividends for stocks and assume +5% for expansion, -10% for mild recession, -25% for severe recession.

For US bonds, you can just annualize the latest monthly dividend. For int'l bonds you have to use TTM because the dividends are mostly paid in Dec.

Even if you could exactly predict 2023 dividends in Dec 2022, what would you do with this information in terms of planning. I'm not seeing the usefulness of the exercise really. Like the others have said, even Q-ES payments is pretty easy to handle.
by gt4715b
Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jetty Deposit for apartment rentals
Replies: 1
Views: 492

Jetty Deposit for apartment rentals

I know this won't be relevant for most people here, but I figured I'd share this financial product that's new to me and hopefully can help people in the future considering using it. I'm leasing an apartment and the property manager offers Jetty Deposit in lieu of a traditional security deposit. You can pay monthly payments for the life of the rental or an one-time premium. The specifics in my case (High Credit Score, no negative information otherwise) For a $1000 deposit I can pay: $191 one-time payment OR $12.58 monthly payments Of course, this is a horrible product. In some extreme scenario, staying at the same place for 10 years or assuming a high return on the investment money, one could come out ahead, but in reality this product is in...
by gt4715b
Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I come up with a bullet proof withdraw strategy for my personal early retirement?
Replies: 34
Views: 5110

Re: Did I come up with a bullet proof withdraw strategy for my personal early retirement?

I think you're making things too complicated?

First, what's your actual desired spending level? You set a lower limit for "comfortable" lifestyle, but what's your actual desired level? Do you have plans to spend at 140k consistently? Very few people can spend at the volatility levels of their portfolio, even on the upside.

The capital preservation withdrawal rate is around 3.25% for the historical data we have from 1871 for a 75%/25% stock/bond portfolio. For a 4.3M portfolio that's 140k.

If you can live a "rich" lifestyle at 130-140k, then just do that and focus on the fun stuff!
by gt4715b
Wed Jun 14, 2023 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 9 month stay in Spain
Replies: 3
Views: 533

Re: 9 month stay in Spain

You can only stay in the Schengen area for 90 days out of each 180 day period without out a visa. So that's a max of 6 months in a year. To stay longer you'll need a visa. The non-lucrative one is probably the best for your situation. You'll have to prove you have income to support yourself. You'll also have to buy private health insurance in Spain (it's not expensive). However, you should know that getting the visa will make you a resident of Spain for the year for tax purposes. Taxes in Spain are quite high. I'm not a tax expert but my belief is Social Security is not taxable, private pensions are taxable, 401k withdrawals are taxable, Roth IRA withdrawals are not taxable. You'll have to decide if getting the visa is worth the effort. Oth...
by gt4715b
Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pinot Noir on the lower end?
Replies: 96
Views: 10449

Re: Pinot Noir on the lower end?

I used the 2023 San Francisco Chronicle Wine Competition results as a basis for a recent trip to Sonoma Valley. They helpfully have rankings by prices:
Pinot < $15
Pinot $15-19.99
Pinot $20-23.99
by gt4715b
Wed May 31, 2023 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a $1.3-$1.5m home? First time home buyer
Replies: 21
Views: 3280

Re: Can we afford a $1.3-$1.5m home? First time home buyer

Looking at the numbers, it's 23% of your gross monthly income, so it's definitely doable.

$10,500 a month for housing seems like a lot to me. I live in a fairly HCOL area and even $6000/month would get you a nice, big single family home. Have you looked at SFH rental opportunities in the same area?
by gt4715b
Thu May 18, 2023 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How does anyone fly on points anymore? (United especially)
Replies: 115
Views: 12919

Re: How does anyone fly on points anymore? (United especially)

Seems like there is better value to Asia vs. Europe now. I got 70k RT from DC to Japan. 70k to Korea in September is available now.
by gt4715b
Wed May 10, 2023 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $0.75 left in Traditional IRA - what to do with it?
Replies: 23
Views: 4370

Re: $0.75 left in Traditional IRA - what to do with it?

Like others have said, just convert it to Roth.

You can read this as a guide: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/penni ... -roth-ira/
by gt4715b
Sun May 07, 2023 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Love for VT/VTWAX?
Replies: 49
Views: 6552

Re: No Love for VT/VTWAX?

The expense ratio is slightly higher than just holding proportional amounts of VTI and VXUS, 0.07% for VT vs. 0.046% for VTI/VXUS.
by gt4715b
Thu May 04, 2023 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large downpayment vs IRA/401k withdrawal & loan
Replies: 8
Views: 880

Re: Large downpayment vs IRA/401k withdrawal & loan

You should definitely not do this.

Mortgage rates are not "high". 5.6% is a pretty average or even cheap rate historically speaking. If you add in the mortgage interest deduction, your effective rate will be even lower. I would just put down 20% and keep the rest invested.

Once you have the mortgage I wouldn't even prepay it; I would just keep adding to the brokerage.

EDITED: Adding link to 15 year mortgage rates since 1991.
by gt4715b
Mon Apr 24, 2023 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone using EarlyRetirementNow SWR Toolbox v2.0?
Replies: 6
Views: 1432

Re: Anyone using EarlyRetirementNow SWR Toolbox v2.0?

One important thing to note is that the percentages shown on the first sheet are Safe Consumption Rates (SCR), not SWR. So, the 6.5% is what you can spend every year as a percentage of your portfolio. So you may have the initial years actually withdrawing 6.5% from the portfolio, but once your SS kicks in it would decline to 6.5% - SS/portfolio.

You can model the sale of the house as income for that year.
by gt4715b
Wed Mar 22, 2023 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: buying treasury bills/bonds vs bond etf
Replies: 5
Views: 932

Re: buying treasury bills/bonds vs bond etf

waterbill wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 1:00 pm
is there any research or backtest on the return of holding treasury bills/bonds vs buying efts like $IEF, $TLT ?
The assumption is that I'd hold treasury until maturity. It seems one can definitely lose money on bond ETFs.
They're not the same. Portfolios model bonds as having a more or less constant duration. This is what bond funds do.

You could mimic a bond ETF yourself by buying the underlying bonds, but there ETFs that are cheap enough such that it's not worth the effort for most people.
by gt4715b
Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 30K from ROTH?
Replies: 17
Views: 1394

Re: What to do with 30K from ROTH?

I would transfer it to Vanguard just for simplify things. It will be one less account to worry about. The process is pretty simple and should be transparent to you for the most part.
by gt4715b
Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I was retiring today, I could comfortably withdraw 5% (mid-30s dad using ERN SWR Toolbox)
Replies: 240
Views: 26821

Re: If I was retiring today, I would comfortably withdraw 5% (mid-30s dad using ERN SWR Toolbox)

Today if I was to quit or lose my job, I would not hesitate at all to withdraw 5% of our portfolio. If the market continues to go down, that would increase to closer to 6%. It’s very likely that 5% from here out adjusted for inflation would work for us given our variables. But we plan to stay flexible with dynamic withdrawals as discussed, and I’ve updated the OP for clarification. This one might help: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2022/10/12/dynamic-withdrawal-rates-based-on-the-shiller-cape-swr-series-part-54/ All your doing is trading portfolio depletion risk for risk of losing spending power. The worst case drawdowns, even excluding the Great Depression, in spending can be quite severe, like over 50%. So your initial 5% withdrawal bec...