Search found 534 matches
- Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:18 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Need a new phone, looking for dual-sim
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1422
Re: Need a new phone, looking for dual-sim
I would just get a new phone. Something like the Google Pixel 7. It has 2 ESim slots, and is an overall good phone.
- Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
- Replies: 169
- Views: 12574
Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Yes, you can do it. A 60/40 portfolio would throw off ~2.5% in income/dividends by itself. No one has really talked about a important issue, which is taxes. It looks like you're open to moving, so you should look for states with low income and/or property taxes. You'll also want to look at that state's ACA program; some are better than others. Buying a modest house will reduce your fixed costs, which lessens SORR risk vs. renting, but the effect is modest. Read here for a detailed article about the topic. You'll want to manage your income to maximize your ACA premiums. You don't want your income to fall below the threshold where you would qualify for Medicaid. But you don't want it to be high enough where you start to lose a significant por...
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 8:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Two ETF portfolio for taxable accounts: 60% equities, 40% fixed income; my pick: 60% DFAW, 40% GOVT
- Replies: 6
- Views: 1245
Re: Two ETF portfolio for taxable accounts: 60% equities, 40% fixed income; my pick: 60% DFAW, 40% GOVT
If I were in decumulation it would be:
60% VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF) - 0.04% ER
40% RSBT (Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF) - 0.97% ER
Total allocation would be 60% world equity (FTSE Global All Cap Index), 40% US bonds (Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), 40% managed futures (Soc Gen Trend Index)
The blended ER would be 0.41%, which is about as high as doing a tilted core equity strategy, but you get managed futures exposure which helps you in an inflationary environment where both stocks and bonds have subpar returns, like in 2022.
60% VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF) - 0.04% ER
40% RSBT (Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF) - 0.97% ER
Total allocation would be 60% world equity (FTSE Global All Cap Index), 40% US bonds (Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), 40% managed futures (Soc Gen Trend Index)
The blended ER would be 0.41%, which is about as high as doing a tilted core equity strategy, but you get managed futures exposure which helps you in an inflationary environment where both stocks and bonds have subpar returns, like in 2022.
- Wed Feb 14, 2024 9:05 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Any studies to refute dividend yield & chill?
- Replies: 161
- Views: 12307
Any studies to refute dividend yield & chill?
I'm looking for papers that have looked specifically into SWRs in the context of an stock dividend, income-focused portfolio.
- Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 75% of market in 10 companies? (Error in Forbes on an AI bubble?)
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1149
Re: 75% of market in 10 companies? (Error in Forbes on an AI bubble?)
The top ten companies are around 29% of the total market and 32% of the S&P 500. It's probably a typo. They probably meant 25% instead of 75%.
- Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Psychological Aversion to Decumulation Phase
- Replies: 73
- Views: 7446
Re: Psychological Aversion to Decumulation Phase
What's your proposed withdrawal rate?
You might be a candidate for doing an income-based portfolio. Even though it's just mental accounting, some people like the idea of just spending dividends + interest. A 60/40 world stock + intermediate bond portfolio currently throws off 3.1%/year.
You might be a candidate for doing an income-based portfolio. Even though it's just mental accounting, some people like the idea of just spending dividends + interest. A 60/40 world stock + intermediate bond portfolio currently throws off 3.1%/year.
- Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
- Replies: 102
- Views: 120157
Re: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
Oh yeah, that's a good idea.
- Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:35 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
- Replies: 102
- Views: 120157
Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
Especially during the pandemic I saw several people I know that were buying the meme stocks justify their purchase by saying something to the effect that "all investing is gambling anyway, so it doesn't matter if I bought this."
I'm looking for the best resources to recommend to someone to convince them that this is not the case. I think the popular personal finance/investing books focus more on top level concerns. I'm looking for a simple, but detailed explanation of what investing in equities really is.
The best I have so far is Investing for Growth by Terry Smith. Is there anything else out there? Thanks!
I'm looking for the best resources to recommend to someone to convince them that this is not the case. I think the popular personal finance/investing books focus more on top level concerns. I'm looking for a simple, but detailed explanation of what investing in equities really is.
The best I have so far is Investing for Growth by Terry Smith. Is there anything else out there? Thanks!
- Tue Dec 26, 2023 12:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Southern Spain in March
- Replies: 47
- Views: 4843
Re: Southern Spain in March
I think you should drop a day from Malaga and Cordoba entirety. Malaga is underrated, but not underrated
Cordoba is one of those places that gets on the tourist itinerary, but typically underwhelms, especially considering the opportunity cost of not being in Granada or Sevilla. I would do:
March 1: arrive in Madrid, train/plane to Malaga
March 2-3: Malaga ( skip Ronda; it's nice, but small and takes too much time out of your short trip)
March 4-5: Grenada
March 6-8: Seville
March 9: train to Mardrid (If you want you could stop in Cordoba here and see La Mezquita and have lunch/dinner)
March 10: depart Madrid
This way you'll have more time and won't be as rushed.
Cordoba is one of those places that gets on the tourist itinerary, but typically underwhelms, especially considering the opportunity cost of not being in Granada or Sevilla. I would do:
March 1: arrive in Madrid, train/plane to Malaga
March 2-3: Malaga ( skip Ronda; it's nice, but small and takes too much time out of your short trip)
March 4-5: Grenada
March 6-8: Seville
March 9: train to Mardrid (If you want you could stop in Cordoba here and see La Mezquita and have lunch/dinner)
March 10: depart Madrid
This way you'll have more time and won't be as rushed.
- Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:54 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
- Replies: 210
- Views: 144293
Re: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
For someone retiring at 40 Social Security doesn't meaningfully change SWR, especially for someone targeting a high annual spending level. Even taking it at 62 means 22 years of relying solely on the portfolio. Success or failure of a given scenario is largely determined by the first 10-15 years of returns.
Obviously, the closer to 62 one retires and the lower the annual spending, the more impact SS has on SWR.
- Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: AlphaArchitect launches BOXX: 1-3 Month Box Spread ETF
- Replies: 308
- Views: 44861
Re: AlphaArchitect launches BOXX: 1-3 Month Box Spread ETF
I think Wes talked about this on Meb Faber's podcast. I think you're right; 5 years should be doable.Lyrrad wrote: ↑Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:38 am I wonder if there will be enough demand or liquidity for a longer term box spread ETF.
From what I can tell, they seem to be available for up to 5 years, so someone would presumably be able to create an ETF with similar characteristics as a medium-term Treasury ETF, though perhaps there's not much demand for such a product.
As interest rates go down there should be more interest in a medium term BOXX-like ETF.
- Sat Nov 25, 2023 3:16 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: TurboTax 2023 offer
- Replies: 282
- Views: 51779
Re: TurboTax 2023 offer
I don't like the idea of paying for TurboTax so $35 is noticeably easier to swallow that $60.whodidntante wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:25 pm I love how many posts the potential to save $25 once a year generates here.
- Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:58 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Investing Strategy Review (For FIRE)
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2235
Re: Investing Strategy Review (For FIRE)
Get rid of JEPI. It's going to underperform SPY long-term, pre-tax. Add in the fact that the covered call income is taxed at ordinary income rates and this turns into a real loser in a taxable account.
- Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The apparently massive effect of adding only 5% bonds to a 100% stock portfolio in Monte Carlo simulations
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1587
Re: The apparently massive effect of adding only 5% bonds to a 100% stock portfolio in Monte Carlo simulations
I'm not quite sure what you're asking, but:
1. The 5% vs 10% is just noise. There's not a statistically significant difference between those portfolios.
2. For the classic Trinity study (30 yr, capital depletion) anything between 50% and 100% stock had more or less equally probable levels of success.
3. For a longer time frame (60 yr, capital preservation) you get monotonically better results with increased stock percentage, although the gains tend to decrease above 70% stocks.
It sounds like you're are more in the second situation. So yeah, over a 40 year time frame you're going to end up with a bigger portfolio with 100% stocks.
You really only need bonds if you're targeting a shorter scenario with capital depletion.
1. The 5% vs 10% is just noise. There's not a statistically significant difference between those portfolios.
2. For the classic Trinity study (30 yr, capital depletion) anything between 50% and 100% stock had more or less equally probable levels of success.
3. For a longer time frame (60 yr, capital preservation) you get monotonically better results with increased stock percentage, although the gains tend to decrease above 70% stocks.
It sounds like you're are more in the second situation. So yeah, over a 40 year time frame you're going to end up with a bigger portfolio with 100% stocks.
You really only need bonds if you're targeting a shorter scenario with capital depletion.
- Fri Nov 03, 2023 2:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Good options for places to travel in August?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1138
Good options for places to travel in August?
I'm trying to plan for travel in August. It's normally a time I avoid, especially in Europe, as it's high season. But I'll have the time available to travel so I'm looking for ideas. The main considerations are somewhere that isn't in high season, not super hot (~85F preferable), and a low cost of living.
Right now, some options:
Varna, Bulgaria
Porto, Portugal
San Sebastian, Spain
Any suggestions; they don't have to be in Europe, but not South America since I'll already be coming from there.
Right now, some options:
Varna, Bulgaria
Porto, Portugal
San Sebastian, Spain
Any suggestions; they don't have to be in Europe, but not South America since I'll already be coming from there.
- Wed Oct 25, 2023 1:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What's the mechanism for paying Roth conversion taxes from the conversion itself?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1642
What's the mechanism for paying Roth conversion taxes from the conversion itself?
I'm doing some advanced planning for Roth conversions and I was wondering how I would go about paying the taxes on the conversion from part of the conversion itself. As an example, if I want to do a $100k conversion and I'll have $12,000 in taxes due how do I get access to the $12,000?
I ask because when I do the conversion for my backdoor Roth (at Fidelity) I don't see an option to hold out any money.
I ask because when I do the conversion for my backdoor Roth (at Fidelity) I don't see an option to hold out any money.
- Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:42 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?
- Replies: 5
- Views: 874
Re: Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?
I'm planning my retirement tax strategy and in search of any spreadsheet/software that could help. Right now the plan is to do some capital gain harvesting then Roth conversions, but it'd be nice to compare several options. Any ideas? Depending on your expectation for future marginal tax rates, skipping the capital gain harvesting and going directly to Roth conversions might be slightly better. See the '0% LTCG or t->R' tab in the personal finance toolbox spreadsheet. The 'Calculations' tab in that spreadsheet can be useful for "this year's" tax planning. Depending on where you are in retirement, one or more of the following articles may be useful: Roth conversion Roth Conversion and Capital Gains On ACA Health Insurance Roth Con...
- Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:43 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?
- Replies: 5
- Views: 874
Software for optimizing taxes in retirement?
I'm planning my retirement tax strategy and in search of any spreadsheet/software that could help. Right now the plan is to do some capital gain harvesting then Roth conversions, but it'd be nice to compare several options. Any ideas?
- Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs
- Replies: 119
- Views: 15440
Re: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs
Ok, well that's good. It doesn't match the weighted ER of the underlying funds though. And they still should have just used ITOT/IXUS.
Reasonable people can disagree on how to define alpha. Tracking error to me is from replication issues or portfolio tilt vs. a benchmark. Expense ratios to me are the purest form of alpha.
- Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs
- Replies: 119
- Views: 15440
Re: iShares launches Target Date Index ETFs
You're paying 0.11% for the wrapper on top of the underlying ETFs, so roughly 0.24% all in, guaranteeing yourself -0.20% alpha per year. Is it really so hard to rebalance 2-3 ETFs?
Also noted that they're using IWB/IWM (0.19% ER) for US instead of ITOT (0.03% ER). Not cool.
Also noted that they're using IWB/IWM (0.19% ER) for US instead of ITOT (0.03% ER). Not cool.
- Fri Oct 13, 2023 1:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Advice on preparing to FIRE in next 1-2 years
- Replies: 28
- Views: 5947
Re: Advice on preparing to FIRE in next 1-2 years
Do you plan on being a resident in an foreign country, meaning staying 183 days or more in a calendar year? If so, this adds a whole other layer of complexity, dealing with visas, taxes, etc. Most places have higher than taxes than the US, btw.
- Sat Sep 23, 2023 4:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Saving on Seafoood! Suggestions
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3020
Re: Saving on Seafoood! Suggestions
Search for the local distribution center, the place where seafood comes into the area. You might be able to buy there or there's sometimes a retail shop nearby that gets its products directly from the distribution center, so the prices are good.
Also, I've found Trader Joes' frozen seafood prices pretty good.
Also, I've found Trader Joes' frozen seafood prices pretty good.
- Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:54 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Carry on luggage
- Replies: 40
- Views: 6893
Re: Carry on luggage
Away and Monos are two brands making high quality, if expensive, hard sided bags. They both have US and International sized carry ons.
- Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:29 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Efficient proof reading tool/process?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 3662
Re: Efficient proof reading tool/process?
For proofreading, definitely ChatGPT4. You should give it the instruction to only make grammatical, spelling or punctuation changes.
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 4:00 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Money Down vs Money saved for Morgage
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2425
Re: Money Down vs Money saved for Morgage
Don't feel weird. People have been told this idea that owning a home is always better than renting, but it's not necessarily true. I'm selling my house to rent and my net worth is going to skyrocket compared to staying in the house.champton89 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 3:46 pm It will definitely feel weird going from homewowership to renter. It sure beats being in a large financial situation you're not sure you can afford though.
Short-term treasuries is a good option. You could add corporate bonds if you wanted to take on a little more risk.
BSV - Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (1-5 yr gov't & investment grade bonds) - ER 0.04%
VGSH - Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (1-3 yr gov't bonds) - ER 0.04%
- Fri Jul 14, 2023 2:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
- Replies: 69
- Views: 5589
Re: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
Hopefully this can become a mega thread and useful to others. Can folks who live abroad, but still maintain a US residence share their experience and tips? Let’s just say live abroad for 6 months and US for 6 months. If all goes well this could be us in 5 years time! Top of mind: - buying a health insurance that works out ok. Cigna Global? Etc - I actually think I could save money. Cost of living in Spain on a recent trip was quite reasonable, even in touristy areas. - it’s possible we could completely move out of the SF Bay Area, but only if the kids/family move out too. This won’t be determined for 10-15 years down the road. Until then plan is to keep our house/cars/all possessions. I'm doing some research on this as well and this is the...
- Thu Jul 13, 2023 11:37 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Should I tip painters
- Replies: 68
- Views: 4834
Should I tip painters
I'm having my 3 story townhouse (1600 floor sq. ft) painted. It's 3 levels on a slab with vaulted ceilings on the top level. Anyway, it's going to take 2 guys 5-6 days to finish it (there are non-significant drywall repairs also).
Anyway, I'm thinking I should tip them $50 each at the end of the job. Is this common?
Anyway, I'm thinking I should tip them $50 each at the end of the job. Is this common?
- Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:40 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1110
- Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1110
Re: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
https://engaging-data.com/tax-brackets/?fs=0®=13000&cg=40000&yr=2022 https://engaging-data.com/tax-brackets/?fs=0®=23000&cg=40000&yr=2022 Does this match the numbers that you are seeing? Going from Gross Income: $53,000 ($13,000 regular + $40,000 capital gains) Standard Deduction: $12,950 Taxable Income: $40,050 Total Tax: $5 to Gross Income: $63,000 ($23,000 regular + $40,000 capital gains) Standard Deduction: $12,950 Taxable Income: $50,050 Total Tax: $2,261.25 using 2022 tax brackets and single filing status. Yeah, those are basically my numbers. MrJedi explained what's going on in that the QD/CG sit on top my taxable income. The marginal tax rate on extra withdrawals seem high, but you still end up better ...
- Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:00 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1110
Can anyone explain the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax Worksheet?
I'm trying to model the most tax friendly method for funding my retirement. I understand the worksheet allows you to get taxed on qualified dividends and cap gains at a lower rate than regular income but the exact mechanics are alluding me at the moment. In TurboTax I modelled: 40k in QD / Cap Gains (up to the 0% cap gain tax threshold) 13k IRA withdrawal (standard deduction) This gave me $0 tax. I understand this. Then I modelled taking an extra $10k IRA withdrawal: 40k in QD / Cap Gains (up to the 0% cap gain tax threshold) 23k IRA withdrawal (standard deduction + $10k) This gave me $2300 tax, or an effective marginal tax rate of 23% on the extra $10k. So it seems that the tax isn't quite as simple as computing the tax on QD / Cap gains a...
- Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:09 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 366
Re: How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?
That's exactly what I was looking for! Thanks.MrJedi wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:03 pm Qualified dividends from Vanguard
https://advisors.vanguard.com/tax-cente ... end-income
- Mon Jul 10, 2023 11:41 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 366
How do I find dividend / capital gains for an ETF?
I'm basically trying to get an idea of the dividend and capital gain breakdown for VTI. I'm assuming it doesn't distribute cap gains, but I'm interested in how much of the dividends are qualified. Basically, I'm looking for what would appear on a 1099-DIV. Does this information exist anywhere?
EDIT: I'd also like to know the breakdown for VXUS. Are there foreign taxes withheld, etc.
EDIT: I'd also like to know the breakdown for VXUS. Are there foreign taxes withheld, etc.
- Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:19 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
- Replies: 69
- Views: 5589
Re: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
I’ve researched Europe extensively and it’s very different if you are “resident” vs. “non-resident”. If you are resident (i.e. have an appropriate visa and live there over 6 mo/year), you usually get to participate in their national health service. This is often a fraction of the cost of US health insurance. If you are non-resident, you need some sort of global health plan (possibly also with US coverage). This is not necessarily true everywhere. Specifically in Spain, which OP mentioned, with the Non-Lucrative visa which is the one most likely to be issued, you have to purchase private health insurance, but it still is relatively cheap. Becoming a resident somewhere is a whole different thing than what OP is proposing and way more complic...
- Sat Jul 08, 2023 2:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
- Replies: 69
- Views: 5589
Re: Geo Arbitrage thread [Live outside the US, maintain US residence]
Can folks who live abroad, but still maintain a US residence share their experience and tips? Let’s just say live abroad for 6 months and US for 6 months. If all goes well this could be us in 5 years time! What you're proposing isn't really Geoarbitrage, since you're not actually moving. It's more like travelling cheaply. Everything is relative to your lifestyle. The only home expenses that are going to go down will be utilities, food, gas + mileage based maintenance, switching to a lower cell phone, gym memberships, etc. Unless you spend a lot eating out you'll be unlikely to keep your expenses from going up. Are you still paying a mortgage? Anyway, the key to keeping costs down is slower travel. Ideally, you'd want only big flight, e.g.,...
- Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 929
Re: Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?
It doesn't have to be every 6 months, but I wouldn't want to have a negative real return over 12-18 months.muffins14 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:52 am Do you need to track CPI every 6 months with zero volatility, or can you accept some months positive and some months negative, such that your average over 5-10 years beats inflation?
In other words, can you accept any fluctuation in portfolio value? If not, why not?
My problem is that BIL or STIP would have gotten destroyed in the 1970's.
I'm looking for the best "anchor" for my portfolio. I don't think what I'm looking for exists and I don't know if it's even possible to financially engineer such a product.
- Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:45 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 929
Boglehead consensus - ETF that returns >0% real return?
Obviously iBonds guarantee at least 0% real return always, but the income limits this isn't practical for most people. So I was wondering what would be the single ETF that would be closest to iBonds? I guess I'm basically for an ETF that tracks CPI
BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF) - short-term real interest rates can spend a long time below 0%
STIP (iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF) - short-term real interest rates can spend a long time below 0%\
LTPZ (PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF) - less chance of real rates <0%, but lots of interest rate risk
If a single ETF isn't possible is there a combination of ETFs that could accomplish this?
BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF) - short-term real interest rates can spend a long time below 0%
STIP (iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF) - short-term real interest rates can spend a long time below 0%\
LTPZ (PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF) - less chance of real rates <0%, but lots of interest rate risk
If a single ETF isn't possible is there a combination of ETFs that could accomplish this?
- Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How to estimate dividend yields?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 759
Re: How to estimate dividend yields?
Just take the last 12 months' dividends for stocks and assume +5% for expansion, -10% for mild recession, -25% for severe recession.
For US bonds, you can just annualize the latest monthly dividend. For int'l bonds you have to use TTM because the dividends are mostly paid in Dec.
Even if you could exactly predict 2023 dividends in Dec 2022, what would you do with this information in terms of planning. I'm not seeing the usefulness of the exercise really. Like the others have said, even Q-ES payments is pretty easy to handle.
For US bonds, you can just annualize the latest monthly dividend. For int'l bonds you have to use TTM because the dividends are mostly paid in Dec.
Even if you could exactly predict 2023 dividends in Dec 2022, what would you do with this information in terms of planning. I'm not seeing the usefulness of the exercise really. Like the others have said, even Q-ES payments is pretty easy to handle.
- Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Jetty Deposit for apartment rentals
- Replies: 1
- Views: 492
Jetty Deposit for apartment rentals
I know this won't be relevant for most people here, but I figured I'd share this financial product that's new to me and hopefully can help people in the future considering using it. I'm leasing an apartment and the property manager offers Jetty Deposit in lieu of a traditional security deposit. You can pay monthly payments for the life of the rental or an one-time premium. The specifics in my case (High Credit Score, no negative information otherwise) For a $1000 deposit I can pay: $191 one-time payment OR $12.58 monthly payments Of course, this is a horrible product. In some extreme scenario, staying at the same place for 10 years or assuming a high return on the investment money, one could come out ahead, but in reality this product is in...
- Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:57 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Did I come up with a bullet proof withdraw strategy for my personal early retirement?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 5110
Re: Did I come up with a bullet proof withdraw strategy for my personal early retirement?
I think you're making things too complicated?
First, what's your actual desired spending level? You set a lower limit for "comfortable" lifestyle, but what's your actual desired level? Do you have plans to spend at 140k consistently? Very few people can spend at the volatility levels of their portfolio, even on the upside.
The capital preservation withdrawal rate is around 3.25% for the historical data we have from 1871 for a 75%/25% stock/bond portfolio. For a 4.3M portfolio that's 140k.
If you can live a "rich" lifestyle at 130-140k, then just do that and focus on the fun stuff!
First, what's your actual desired spending level? You set a lower limit for "comfortable" lifestyle, but what's your actual desired level? Do you have plans to spend at 140k consistently? Very few people can spend at the volatility levels of their portfolio, even on the upside.
The capital preservation withdrawal rate is around 3.25% for the historical data we have from 1871 for a 75%/25% stock/bond portfolio. For a 4.3M portfolio that's 140k.
If you can live a "rich" lifestyle at 130-140k, then just do that and focus on the fun stuff!
- Wed Jun 14, 2023 11:20 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: 9 month stay in Spain
- Replies: 3
- Views: 533
Re: 9 month stay in Spain
You can only stay in the Schengen area for 90 days out of each 180 day period without out a visa. So that's a max of 6 months in a year. To stay longer you'll need a visa. The non-lucrative one is probably the best for your situation. You'll have to prove you have income to support yourself. You'll also have to buy private health insurance in Spain (it's not expensive). However, you should know that getting the visa will make you a resident of Spain for the year for tax purposes. Taxes in Spain are quite high. I'm not a tax expert but my belief is Social Security is not taxable, private pensions are taxable, 401k withdrawals are taxable, Roth IRA withdrawals are not taxable. You'll have to decide if getting the visa is worth the effort. Oth...
- Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Pinot Noir on the lower end?
- Replies: 96
- Views: 10449
- Wed May 31, 2023 11:54 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Can we afford a $1.3-$1.5m home? First time home buyer
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3280
Re: Can we afford a $1.3-$1.5m home? First time home buyer
Looking at the numbers, it's 23% of your gross monthly income, so it's definitely doable.
$10,500 a month for housing seems like a lot to me. I live in a fairly HCOL area and even $6000/month would get you a nice, big single family home. Have you looked at SFH rental opportunities in the same area?
$10,500 a month for housing seems like a lot to me. I live in a fairly HCOL area and even $6000/month would get you a nice, big single family home. Have you looked at SFH rental opportunities in the same area?
- Thu May 18, 2023 10:22 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How does anyone fly on points anymore? (United especially)
- Replies: 115
- Views: 12919
Re: How does anyone fly on points anymore? (United especially)
Seems like there is better value to Asia vs. Europe now. I got 70k RT from DC to Japan. 70k to Korea in September is available now.
- Wed May 10, 2023 10:14 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: $0.75 left in Traditional IRA - what to do with it?
- Replies: 23
- Views: 4370
Re: $0.75 left in Traditional IRA - what to do with it?
Like others have said, just convert it to Roth.
You can read this as a guide: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/penni ... -roth-ira/
You can read this as a guide: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/penni ... -roth-ira/
- Sun May 07, 2023 8:56 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: No Love for VT/VTWAX?
- Replies: 49
- Views: 6552
Re: No Love for VT/VTWAX?
The expense ratio is slightly higher than just holding proportional amounts of VTI and VXUS, 0.07% for VT vs. 0.046% for VTI/VXUS.
- Thu May 04, 2023 8:32 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Large downpayment vs IRA/401k withdrawal & loan
- Replies: 8
- Views: 880
Re: Large downpayment vs IRA/401k withdrawal & loan
You should definitely not do this.
Mortgage rates are not "high". 5.6% is a pretty average or even cheap rate historically speaking. If you add in the mortgage interest deduction, your effective rate will be even lower. I would just put down 20% and keep the rest invested.
Once you have the mortgage I wouldn't even prepay it; I would just keep adding to the brokerage.
EDITED: Adding link to 15 year mortgage rates since 1991.
Mortgage rates are not "high". 5.6% is a pretty average or even cheap rate historically speaking. If you add in the mortgage interest deduction, your effective rate will be even lower. I would just put down 20% and keep the rest invested.
Once you have the mortgage I wouldn't even prepay it; I would just keep adding to the brokerage.
EDITED: Adding link to 15 year mortgage rates since 1991.
- Mon Apr 24, 2023 3:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Anyone using EarlyRetirementNow SWR Toolbox v2.0?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 1432
Re: Anyone using EarlyRetirementNow SWR Toolbox v2.0?
One important thing to note is that the percentages shown on the first sheet are Safe Consumption Rates (SCR), not SWR. So, the 6.5% is what you can spend every year as a percentage of your portfolio. So you may have the initial years actually withdrawing 6.5% from the portfolio, but once your SS kicks in it would decline to 6.5% - SS/portfolio.
You can model the sale of the house as income for that year.
You can model the sale of the house as income for that year.
- Wed Mar 22, 2023 4:20 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: buying treasury bills/bonds vs bond etf
- Replies: 5
- Views: 932
Re: buying treasury bills/bonds vs bond etf
They're not the same. Portfolios model bonds as having a more or less constant duration. This is what bond funds do.
You could mimic a bond ETF yourself by buying the underlying bonds, but there ETFs that are cheap enough such that it's not worth the effort for most people.
- Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:18 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What to do with 30K from ROTH?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1394
Re: What to do with 30K from ROTH?
I would transfer it to Vanguard just for simplify things. It will be one less account to worry about. The process is pretty simple and should be transparent to you for the most part.
- Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:43 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: If I was retiring today, I could comfortably withdraw 5% (mid-30s dad using ERN SWR Toolbox)
- Replies: 240
- Views: 26821
Re: If I was retiring today, I would comfortably withdraw 5% (mid-30s dad using ERN SWR Toolbox)
Today if I was to quit or lose my job, I would not hesitate at all to withdraw 5% of our portfolio. If the market continues to go down, that would increase to closer to 6%. It’s very likely that 5% from here out adjusted for inflation would work for us given our variables. But we plan to stay flexible with dynamic withdrawals as discussed, and I’ve updated the OP for clarification. This one might help: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2022/10/12/dynamic-withdrawal-rates-based-on-the-shiller-cape-swr-series-part-54/ All your doing is trading portfolio depletion risk for risk of losing spending power. The worst case drawdowns, even excluding the Great Depression, in spending can be quite severe, like over 50%. So your initial 5% withdrawal bec...