Search found 505 matches

by wjo
Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:19 am Taken in the context that it appears many people do not maximally contribute to their 401k plans, the option to purchase Series I Savings Bonds in those plans is not unreasonable.
https://www.personalcapital.com/blog/re ... lance-age/
https://www.cnbc.com/select/average-401 ... s-and-60s/
If I could purchase I-bonds in Roth space, that would be perfect. True inflation protection with no worries about losing value with deflation (a downside of TIPS). Right now I purchase I-bonds with after-tax dollars and gains will be subject to taxes. Still, good inflation protection compared to cash or other low-risk instruments.
by wjo
Fri Dec 30, 2022 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

PersonalFinanceJam wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 9:58 pm My real point is just to agree with others who have said we can talk about guaranteed income, funded ratios, and safe withdrawal rates all we want but too few people are putting in too little money for it to matter. That said, people still retire and they do it based on savings, home equity, selling a business, rental properties and a myriad of other ways which are not putting money in a retirement account. They will continue to muddle through as best they can.
I don't disagree. People need to save more. And they muddle through as best they can, as you say. I know more than a few who have traded down to a lower cost of living.
by wjo
Thu Dec 29, 2022 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

This thread has caused me to re-read some of Bill B's Efficient Frontier posts on the Retirement Calculator from Hell.

Posting links here as others may benefit from them:

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/103/hell4.htm

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/403/hell5.htm
by wjo
Thu Dec 29, 2022 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

I think retirement is expensive and we still haven’t quite shaken off the notion that we can save a little and then have market returns bail us out. I look at my state’s public school pension as a guide. Participants do not receive social security and the plan is self funded so receives no direct taxpayer support from the state itself. A retiree in the system can expect to retire with 75% of their average last few years final salary after working 30 years. More if they work longer. To support this, almost 30% of their calculated compensation goes towards the pension. 15% directly deducted from their pay and another 15% from the district. The plan is well regarded and well funded. This would lead me to believe someone working and expecting ...
by wjo
Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

My emphasis... And this is why I believe individual investments (DC pensions) will become the norm as private investment replaces state pensions.This however means that the general population must be better educated around investing and retirement planning generally. Merton's answer is the opposite of your point. He wants DC plan participants to only make meaningful decisions such as how long do I plan to work, how much am I going to save per year, and what are my desired and minimal retirement income goals. The investing strategies to reach those goals should be handled for each participant by the professional financial analysts running the DC plan. Merton believes asking participants to decide whether to put 10% into a REITS etf or an em...
by wjo
Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

bobcat2 wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 12:22 pm
wjo wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:50 pmFor the rational investor, it seems to me that the only safe bet is to be overfunded for retirement - and then, it doesn't make much difference what scheme you are investing in.
You may be right. In that case the rational investor will have to work longer (retire later) and save more per year. :(

BobK
Yes- for those that can. I'm planning on a 3% SWR and consider SS for me to be a bonus - at a higher income in retirement than most, I can reasonably expect I will be taxed more in some way. For those that can't save more, a TIPS ladder is a good way to build a floor while that option is available.
by wjo
Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

For example, under current law, social security will be reduced to better match funding. Just jumping into the quote to point out that this sentence isn’t true. The law is silent about WHAT happens if the Social Security trust fund is depleted. Social Security, in its 2010 SSA Bulletin (Vol 70(3)), makes this statement from the Chief Actuary: The concepts of solvency, sustainability, and budget impact are common in discussions of Social Security, but are not well understood. Currently, the Social Security Board of Trustees projects program cost to rise by 2035 so that taxes will be enough to pay for only 75 percent of scheduled benefits. This increase in cost results from population aging, not because we are living longer, but because birt...
by wjo
Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on fixing retirement
Replies: 323
Views: 36528

Re: Robert Merton on fixing retirement

It is posts like this that keep me reading Bogleheads. I appreciate Bill Bernstein taking the time to reply here; I've poured through all his investment tomes and missives. That said, I am reminded of Bill B's old Efficient Frontier Retirement Calculator from Hell series, particularly around aging populations and shifting numbers of workers and retirees. The developed world is rapidly approaching that moment of too many retirees putting a strain on the productive economy. It is not clear to me that any scheme that is truly inflation-matching to keep retirees at a stable funded income stream throughout their retirement is supportable within the constraints of the economic system we are in - at least not at scale. For example, under current l...
by wjo
Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best tax software for semi-complex situation
Replies: 17
Views: 1905

Re: Best tax software for semi-complex situation

Thanks for the input.

The filing status for Va is a bit confusing - perhaps the best advice is to give the VA tax authorities a call.

I was under the impression that filing status flows down from the Federal to the State but it seems this is not the case from the comments above. We could file Federally MFJ and I could file MFS in Va if I understand correctly. Fortunately, apart from one bank account, each of us has separate accounts so it is pretty easy to segregate the income between us.

It also seems from the comments to avoid TT on State. so TaxAct or HR Block. I always download the software - I'm not a big fan of online services having all that info in the cloud...
by wjo
Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best tax software for semi-complex situation
Replies: 17
Views: 1905

Re: Best tax software for semi-complex situation

Thanks.

on the GIGO - I'm pretty good on the Federal, been a while since I've filed a state return. Va taxes I guess is the area I would need the most help.
by wjo
Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best tax software for semi-complex situation
Replies: 17
Views: 1905

Best tax software for semi-complex situation

Boglehead friends - I am seeking advice on tax software for my situation. My wife and I are Texas residents. I moved to Virginia this year while my DW stayed in Texas. I do not plan a long-term move to Va - I am taking an assignment in DC for one year; I chose to live in Va as it has the lowest tax rates and otherwise makes sense for the commute. I have income in Tx and Va, and my wife has income in Tx. I will owe state taxes to Va. When using last year's TurboTax to quickly model my taxes, it suggested I would need to file married filing separately at the Federal level to pay taxes in Va and otherwise segregate our incomes. For those of you with experience with state filing and filing separately, can you suggest which software you have had...
by wjo
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Tempting
Replies: 64
Views: 10316

Re: Berkshire Tempting

Bought 100 shares at 195 today. Was up $90 just minutes after I bought it. Play money.
by wjo
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Origin Investments
Replies: 7
Views: 1305

Re: Origin Investments

Be wary of the liquidity of this fund - full tax benefits with a 10-year investment commitment. I am in a similar situation and may just eat the taxes and it is unclear I want to commit over such a time-frame.
by wjo
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Math is scary
Replies: 42
Views: 7573

Re: Math is scary

Yup - retirement math is scary no matter how you cut it - building up 25X expenses is no small feat. It can discourage many.

Fortunately, the power of compounding is amazing - the eighth wonder of the world. Time is on your side - start saving a decent percentage and don't worry about it too much other than motivation to save. At some point the compound growth on your savings exceeds your yearly contributions and things start to take care of themselves. Take the example of many here that have enough (or more than enough...)
by wjo
Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bill Bernstein: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 56
Views: 10570

Re: Dr. Bill Bernstein: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Bill has been a strong advocate of a small and value tilted portfolio. Any new thoughts here?

More broadly, what are his thoughts about a tilted portfolio vs a simple three-fund or 'put it all in a life-strategy fund' portfolio for management as one ages (and faces potential cognitive decline, spouses who don't like managing money, etc.)

Always love to hear Dr. Bernstein. One of the most influential for me in terms of investing.
by wjo
Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My mortgagor wants to sell a slice of the land. Thoughts?
Replies: 97
Views: 8164

Re: My mortgagee wants to sell a slice of the land. Thoughts?

I'd ask questions about the purpose and use of the funds. It could be a sale to a friend, neighbor that could be innocent enough. Since the land is the principal collateral on the loan, my basic question would be does the sale of the acres reduce the value of the land in a significant way? I would suspect the buyer would want prime land, which might adversely affect the value of the larger parcel. If so, there is no way I would ok this. I recently closed out an owner finance mortgage - I was the owner. The buyers after three years were able to refi; their three years of payments helped make the case to a bank. (No need to go into details here - it was a good deal for me and the buyers.) My suggestion would be to recommend that the buyers lo...
by wjo
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 61
Views: 9075

Re: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Another thought would be Larry's perspectives on what to do to plan for lack of competence to handle your assets and affairs in retirement. There is a recent thread here on what to do when you have no family/friends to look after you in your old age. I'd appreciate his thoughts as rep of a firm that does expensive but supposedly full service financial management.
by wjo
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 61
Views: 9075

Re: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

rosemary11 wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:09 am Mr. Swedroe recommends " 3 percent withdrawal rate" instead of "4 percent safe withdrawal rate".
Would you comment on the advantage and disadvantage of the 3 percent withdrawal rate versus the " spend safely in retirement" strategy developed by the Stanford Center on retirement , author Steve Vernon.
Let us assume an average retiree wants to apply the strategy , starting retirement age 65 and starting social security at age 70.
I think this is a very good, general interest question. I would also be interested in his thoughts about the merit of different withdrawal strategies in general and what his recommendations are.
by wjo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 204
Views: 25149

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Getting back to the OP's post, a side note that the analysis certainly makes I-Bonds currently paying 0.5% real a no brainer as they have real returns better than 10-yr TIPs, better liquidity after the minimum holding period, and deflation protection. Too bad we're limited in how much we can buy. While I disagree that buying I bonds at 0.5% real is a no-brainer, I bonds look like a good deal today compared to 5-year TIPS, which I think is what they should be compared to. Treasury.gov shows 5-year TIPS yield at 0.4%. I underlined today because when the thread started on June 1, the 5-year yield was quoted as 0.33%, while treasury.gov showed 0.35% on 5/31 (6/1 was a Saturday), the yield hit a low of 0.24% only 10 days ago on 6/7, it was high...
by wjo
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 204
Views: 25149

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Getting back to the OP's post, a side note that the analysis certainly makes I-Bonds currently paying 0.5% real a no brainer as they have real returns better than 10-yr TIPs, better liquidity after the minimum holding period, and deflation protection. Too bad we're limited in how much we can buy.
by wjo
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which shaving cream / oil?
Replies: 58
Views: 7290

Re: Which shaving cream / oil?

At the recommendation of a shaving guru, I started using La Lavande soap - Savons a l'Ancienne palm or olive - as the cream of choice - either directly or with a brush. The medium size Marseille cubes are a good size for the shower. Great lather, lasts a long time. Easily the equal of the shave soaps from the London high street shops.
by wjo
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAcT - PSA on gouging
Replies: 14
Views: 1793

TaxAcT - PSA on gouging

Really, really annoyed with TaxAct right now for gouging business practices. A TaxAct user for many years (switched once TurboTax was getting too expensive), I've watched them increase prices in the last few years. Fair enough - I suppose the user base is saturated so the only growth is through increasing prices for existing customers. As such, I dutifully pre-ordered the premier edition several months ago to get a discount. Now, just finishing up taxes after waiting for some late forms from investments, I see that I need to add a small amount of Schedule C income from a 1099-MISC (royalty on a publication the DW was paid for). It turns out that the Premier version of TaxAct - which handles investments and real estate transactions - is not ...
by wjo
Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series I Savings Bonds Buying Opportunity
Replies: 52
Views: 11941

Re: Series I Savings Bonds Buying Opportunity

Just put in my order. Not a bad deal for guaranteed real return, although taxes....

It is hard to get too excited about a real return of basically zero after taxes, but I do see I-bonds as part of an emergency fund (can't be the sole choice given liquidity limitations for the first year) as well as an investment for the low tax years between retirement and RMDS/social security.
by wjo
Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chess book recommendations
Replies: 8
Views: 1005

Re: Chess book recommendations

Like you, I was away from chess for a few decades. Now I'm getting back in.

Rather than look at books, I would suggest the on-line resources. There are some very good YouTube channels around chess explaining games and moves - I like John Bartholomew's (an IM) for one, especially his 15 minute games where he describes his thought process. Chess.com is also a great resource for training, tactics, openings, and such. Others are Lichess, ICC, and Chess24.

Enjoy!
by wjo
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS notice 3/22/2019: for 2018 taxes, no penalty if 80% of tax shown on return was withheld or est taxes paid
Replies: 13
Views: 2708

Re: IRS notice 3/22/2019: for 2018 taxes, no penalty if 80% of tax shown on return was withheld or est taxes paid

A reminder that the safe harbor rule is still in effect and that if you paid 100% of last year's liability, you are ok. My taxes went up this year due to the SALT limitations, but I still paid more than 100% of last year's liability.
by wjo
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you still wear a necktie to work?
Replies: 202
Views: 16087

Re: Do you still wear a necktie to work?

I am exact opposite. I am electrical engineer. If i have interview at a company and notice there is low standard dress code at the place, its red flag for me. If people dont care about attire at their work place, what does it say about their attitude towards company overall. As a professional, i would like to work in a place where people put some effort to dress up (no jeans and tshirts with stains and hole please). Wearing tie may be overkill, but decent dress code is a must for a professional work place. Amen to this. There is too much push to wear what you want and I see lots of colleagues looking like slobs. It is unprofessional and unattractive. You can be comfortable in nicer clothes. I think the mass-produced ready-to-wear industry ...
by wjo
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard research paper on global diversification
Replies: 21
Views: 2914

Re: Vanguard research paper on global diversification

And here's an interesting quote from the paper regarding foreign exposure from US domiciled multinationals that is often discussed here: Can multinational corporations provide enough exposure? One common question about exposure to stocks outside one’s home market is whether domestic multinational companies have enough coverage of foreign markets embedded in their prices. The thinking goes that, because many large domestic firms generate a significant portion of their revenue from foreign operations, the diversification benefits of global investing are already reflected in their prices and performance. While this aspect of globalization cannot be ignored (and certainly can have an impact on investors’ portfolios), we believe it still makes s...
by wjo
Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces on retirement accoutns &QBI for small businesses
Replies: 1
Views: 377

Kitces on retirement accoutns &QBI for small businesses

Michael Kitces just published an article on the tax law changes on QBI income and how it affects contributions and taxability of retirement plans for small businesses (short summary: more complicated and more favorable for ROTH contributions than deductible ones). Should be of interest to the small business owners on this forum

https://www.kitces.com/blog/199a-qbi-de ... ions-roth/
by wjo
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 27
Views: 5408

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

I thought part of the value of an immediate SPIA was a higher payout over bonds that allowed the non-annuitized portfolio to grow and act as a source of inflation protection or other income. This seems to be the recommended strategy compared to investing in an inflation-adjusted SPIA which is very expensive.

Another strategy is to buy additional SPIAs later in life when mortality credit is higher. When combined with a deferred start for Social Security, this strategy makes a good balance of immediate income, longevity insurance, and inflation protection.
by wjo
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 5279

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

Depends a lot on Johnny's belief in the promises and in the ability of the management team to stay together.

There may be a first mover advantage to be the first one out the door. If all/most leave, can the $1mn promise be kept?

Whether to keep working or not shouldn't affect the current investments. I wouldn't change the investment strategy until the cash from either option is actually in hand. (If with $2 mn in investments, Johnny decides to independently take a more conservative investment approach without thought to future infusions of cash, that is a different thing entirely.)
by wjo
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help explain TIAA Traditional to me
Replies: 21
Views: 5193

Re: Help explain TIAA Traditional to me

You would probably find a better response over at the TIAA forum at Morningstar, where they are specialists in this.

In general, TIAA Traditional is a solid stable value type fund with good rates but with liquidity restrictions on the higher interest rates. It is a solid investment choice used by many over the years as a foundation for savings.

A simple approach would be to split money between the bond and Traditional funds, and use the bond money for liquidity (for example, when you rebalance).

The Traditional fund is a bit complicated, but it would be well worth the effort to learn about how it works. Again, the Morningstar forum people are likely your best source. The TIAA website has resources as well.
by wjo
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?
Replies: 21
Views: 3405

Re: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?

Bill Bernstein suggests that using bond ETFs is not recommended as ETFs lack a mutual fund's requirement to redeem shares at NAV. In a liquidity crisis, the price of Bond ETF may drop way below the price of the underlying bonds and market makers may not able to use arbitrage effectively to keep the ETF price close to the underlying value. Bernstein suggests this is particularly a problem in corporate and municipal bond ETFs where bonds can be thinly traded, esp. in a crisis.
by wjo
Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBIAX- balanced fund 60/40.
Replies: 15
Views: 3183

Re: VBIAX- balanced fund 60/40.

Miriam2 wrote: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:02 am Nice, very helpful post, thank you WJO :happy
You're most welcome.
by wjo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBIAX- balanced fund 60/40.
Replies: 15
Views: 3183

Re: VBIAX- balanced fund 60/40.

Yes i will be in 24% or higher tax bracket. I am in texas and dont have any plan to move. My understanding was to have balance fund and put it on auto every month so i dont have to balance it myself. Seems like its better to have total stock and total bond fund rather. Yes, as Grabiner wrote, it depends a bit on your marginal tax bracket. Since you will be at 24%, tax managed balanced would be the one fund if you want one. It is not a bad choice at all. However, the point about why to use separate funds is a bit more complicated. Grabiner gives a good basic example for flexibility, but if you are staying in Texas, here's a more pertinent example. Suppose you have $100k in the fund and stocks go up by 10%. Your fund, let's say 50/50 stock t...
by wjo
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBIAX- balanced fund 60/40.
Replies: 15
Views: 3183

Re: VBIAX- balanced fund 60/40.

While not terrible, you'd probably be better of with the tax managed balanced index fund from Vanguard, VTMFX.

In general, multi-asset, self-balancing funds are better for tax-sheltered accounts as their internal rebalancing can be tax inefficient. It is usually better to hold separate clases of funds (e.g., domestic stock, international stock, bonds...) in a taxable account so you can better control the tax impact of each fund. Have a look at the wiki here for information on tax-efficient investing.
by wjo
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer will not indemnify me cause I am retired
Replies: 56
Views: 6761

Re: Employer will not indemnify me cause I am retired

Worked as counsel for a public company and we had several advisory boards. They were paid but had no actual authority and should not have been liable in any legal action. Nevertheless, they were covered by our indemnification bylaw and by D&O insurance. Even if the district won't indemnify you, you should ask them to explore the costs of getting advisory directors covered by their D&O policy, assuming they have one. The additional cost should be minimal since your liability is nil, and in the event you are named as an additional defendant in a case, they will already be providing a defense to the other defendants so the cost of defense for you would be minimal. Hope it works out for you. This strikes me as excellent advice. There a...
by wjo
Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nespresso?
Replies: 103
Views: 11069

Re: Nespresso?

My wife has one - lives by it. Cheaper than Starbucks and similar, good for individual servings. Wide range of pods to adjust for taste. Something she wouldn't do without.
by wjo
Wed May 23, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legally Exempt IRAs from Medigap Countable
Replies: 5
Views: 1087

Re: Legally Exempt IRAs from Medigap Countable

I'd second the need for a 2nd opinion from specialists in eldercare. This is a complex area of law that varies by state, so advice you get here may not be correct in your state.

Similarly, there may be be ways to shield the assets using annuities in a trust, but that shouldn't mean the ones that the finance guy was mentioning....less expensive options should be available. I am not a specialist, but I can see the value of a variable annuity with a guaranteed withdrawal rate - some ability to capture upside and limit downside risk.
by wjo
Mon May 07, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds, aka SeLFIES
Replies: 95
Views: 15500

Re: Retirement bonds

This is interesting.

I wonder, though, can a government afford to pay for inflation protection for all its retirees? I seem to remember and article from Bill Bernstein discussing the challenges of TIPS if everyone wanted one. The broader point is that for countries with significant parts of the population retired, it is difficult for the remaining workers to provided all the desired goods and services (perhaps automation will save us? - Japan may lead the way).
by wjo
Sun May 06, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA
Replies: 90
Views: 13031

Re: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA

I am planning to purchase an annuity for us, mostly b/c we do not have children and I like the idea of steady income when we may have less mental capacity. The purchase will come from the fixed income side of our portfolio, leaving the equity side to grow and provide inflation protection. I do believe the models that purchasing an annuity, due to the mortality credits and thus a higher payout rate, provides more income per dollar of fixed income than just investment return alone. This results in less stress on the remaining portfolio (provided one doesn't just spend more), increasing the likelihood of portfolio longevity and final wealth. I'm interested in the final wealth aspect both for bequest motives and the possible stress of expensive...
by wjo
Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PSA - beware auto import on tax software
Replies: 4
Views: 750

PSA - beware auto import on tax software

A public service announcement (PSA) - doing my taxes last night, using TaxAct, for the first time I automatically imported tax information from Fidelity. Multiple forms, lots of transactions this year. One immediate problem is that a taxable sale was recorded twice as a duplicate, with the cost basis and gain numbers reversed (twice!). That was the immediate problem found. I am going to have to spend more time checking and rechecking all the things that were input automatically than just doing the manual input myself. I am not sure if this an isolated incident, something endemic to TaxAct or Fidelity, or just a problem in general. (I wonder about professional offices that use this technology...) I had ignored this auto import for years but ...
by wjo
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal liability risk for unit owners in condo association?
Replies: 13
Views: 1940

Re: Personal liability risk for unit owners in condo association?

I have no opinion on the liability. But... make sure you look at the HOA reserves. Many, many smaller condo Assoc neglect the reserves for roof, siding, parking lot. I would want a good look at the Financial statements. And any use of those reserves in the last few years. A nice big assessment right after you move in would be hard to take This. and even more: Small condo associations are subject to the same rules as large ones but generally are too small to have professional management. A very small development has a high likelihood of just getting by. I would not buy into a condo or similar association without the ability to afford professional managers. This generally increases the expense; however, it is much more likely that things are...
by wjo
Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 9617

Re: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio

I'm reminded of one of Taylor's statements that 'when experts disagree, it may not make much difference.'

Any healthy exposure to a well-diversified bond fund is likely to be sufficient and achieve the portfolio objective of balancing out stock risk (i.e., reducing volatility). There are lots of arguments to be made to tweak overall bond return, but a lot of that depends on your predictions about the future.

There is a lot to be said for simplicity. Total bond, short-term bond, intermediate-term - all will do a fine job in a diversified portfolio. Your ability to save and stay the course through market volatility is much more important to overall success than the return given by any choice of bond fund(s).
by wjo
Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How Well Do You Know About Retirement Income?
Replies: 40
Views: 6175

Re: How Well Do You Know About Retirement Income?

37/38. Need to brush up on Medicare ;) I thought the test was good and fair - may have been sponsored by people who sell annuities, but I didn't see any obvious bias in the questions/answers. What was asked was pretty comprehensive about different aspects of retirement planning, including medical care, retirement/assisted living, and income sources and spending capabilities.
by wjo
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wondering if solar is worth it - does my utility bill seem high? (Arizona)
Replies: 40
Views: 4879

Re: Wondering if solar is worth it - does my utility bill seem high? (Arizona)

I installed solar panels a few years ago - but then sold my house. But was happy with my investment in solar. After incentives, I figured I was making about a 4%+ return on my investment. Of course, this is all after tax money, which is the best kind. If power prices go up, savings would increase. Investing in Solar is a bit of a hedge against increasing utility bills. The biggest thing about solar is the need to replace the inverters - mine had a 10 yr lifespan, if I recall correctly. The panels can have 25-50 year warranties. With the advent of good batteries - perhaps from an electric car - the opportunity for solar + batteries to provide power during outages is very attractive from a risk perspective. In a sunny climate, I'd definitely ...
by wjo
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:50 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Buying property in France
Replies: 27
Views: 4213

Re: Buying property in France

The posters above are right on.

Owning property with family is a recipe for future tears in general. Think about the risks should their be a need for one sibling to sell or a divorce? With four sets of people, a problem is very likely even with the best of intentions.

French law is very complicated. I have a friend who lives in France and had to refrain from selling his house to downsize for 2-3 years because one of his sons divorced and they had to legally get the former spouse's claim on inheriting the property removed. Nightmarish by US standards.
by wjo
Mon May 01, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value's Rough Patch Not a Concern for AQR's Ronen Israel
Replies: 4
Views: 3263

Re: Value's Rough Patch Not a Concern for AQR's Ronen Israel

Sounds like from the discussion that AQR is discovering fundamental indexing approach to value (pick cheap stocks within sectors rather than simple sorts across all industries). Seems like some backtracking there given Cliff Asness and Rob Arnott went back and forth on the their approaches. Or am I missing something?
by wjo
Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Basic question on Hybrid cars
Replies: 64
Views: 6448

Re: Basic question on Hybrid cars

I'll second the vote for the Accord Hybrid. We own one and love it...no compromises. But, in general, hybrid technology is mature enough that you can choose whatever model and it will be a good improvement in !mileage over the gas model.
by wjo
Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nissan Leaf ?
Replies: 40
Views: 5695

Re: Nissan Leaf ?

I bought a used 2013 Leaf with 11k miles on it a few months ago. So far, so good. I just have a 110v charger and no issues. I don't have need of a faster charger given my typical driving range. For an around town car, it is fantastic. The somewhat elevated driving position is nice, and there is plenty of interior space compared to other models that have been retrofitted to be electric (e.g., Focus electric). That said, it is a compact car, don't think of it as SUV. I'm 6'+, we've fit four adults comfortably in the car. The car suffers a bit on the highway in terms of eating battery quicker and lack of independent rear suspension that can make it feel a little unsettled at speed. (Be sure to test drive it with the eco mode turned on and off....
by wjo
Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do reviewers love the Dell XPS 13 but users don't?
Replies: 97
Views: 18469

Re: Why do reviewers love the Dell XPS 13 but users don't?

FWIW, I use the XPS13 as my travel notebook for work. It has been a good and reliable machine. Small form factor and weight make it easy to travel with. No issues. However, it isn't a full size laptop so there some compromises from the form factor. I wouldn't want it as my sole machine but for travel its fine. I would expect many of the complaints come from people who use this as their primary machine. If this was to be my only computer, I would would buy a larger notebook.