Search found 8701 matches

by Fallible
Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry
Replies: 81
Views: 9773

Re: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry

Condemnation of the Financial Industry is just another form of prejudice or bias. There are good guys and bad guys in most industries. Just because one restaurant is closed by the board of health does not mean all restaurants are unsanitary. I don't think it is prejudice or bias when the largest financial players in the world -- JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs among others -- have paid literally hundreds of billions in fines and penalties for their crimes including securities fraud, consumer fraud, price fixing, money laundering, sanctions violations, bribery and forgery. Either the institutions themselves are corrupt or the industry tends to attract the most pathological of personalities, or both. Hund...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 09, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McQ in the Wall Street Journal
Replies: 12
Views: 2024

Re: McQ in the Wall Street Journal

stan1 wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:50 am I love this quote on the "Law of Conservation of Wall Street Profit:
McQuarrie points to what he calls “the law of conservation of Wall Street profit: If we’re not going to make it one way, we’ll make it in another way.”
And too often they don't even have to make it another way but just basically continue the old way as long as clients keep paying. :annoyed

OP, thanks for posting another good article from Zweig, from which I happily quote:
Only in the 2000s, in response to the competitive onslaught from dirt-cheap index funds, did fees finally drop sharply.
:happy
by Fallible
Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 366
Views: 34425

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

^^^ Totally agree with Ric's post above. I have felt all along that Buckley was trying to wash off anything that was Jack Bogle. I am totally glad he's out; hopefully new management will right the ship. Yes, on his way out I'll bet he'll avoids walking past the statue of Bogle. I'm not really glad he's out, because I read it as a signal that Vanguard is, using Rick Ferri's word, "wounded." "Righting a ship" is not so easily done. The plain fact is that we don't know the reason, so we don't know what the perceived problems are, or how deep they go. ... I think this is the next realization now that we've absorbed Buckley's departure - just how bad things are, how bad the damage. It's a scary question, but an inevitable on...
by Fallible
Fri Mar 01, 2024 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 366
Views: 34425

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

No love lost here. When I started the “Bogleheads On Investing” podcast, I interviewed Jack Bogle as my first guest. I wanted to interview Tim Buckley shortly thereafter. He told me to my face that he would LOVE to be a podcast guest. But when Jack Bogle died, I couldn’t get a response from his office. When I finally did, I was told “not interested.” Hopefully the new CEO will be more open. Buckley's behavior there was revealing in his finally responding to you via his office. This is something he continued to do as customer service deteriorated, incredible and continual mistakes were made with our money, and tech failed to meaningfully improve. Then, as attention finally began focusing on him and his leadership, he usually again responded...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

... So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"? Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era? Ben Carlson wrote this in his "A Wealth of Common Sense" column in 2014, which led with a quote from Howard Marks: “The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.” – Howard Marks In John Templeton’s timeless 16 rules for Investment Success (published in 1933) he states: “The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.” This ti...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 26, 2024 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE-ing In, Quitting versus Getting FIRE-d - Talking to Boss Tomorrow
Replies: 148
Views: 22529

Re: FIRE-ing In, Quitting versus Getting FIRE-d - Talking to Boss Tomorrow

invest4 wrote: Sun Feb 25, 2024 10:22 pm We don’t know your company, but if any reasonable size and competence, they have a process and experience in handling such cases…far more than you do.

I think you have received good advice. Not surprisingly, the company has to get something out of the deal. If you don’t have an idea what that benefit is for them, you are just playing the slots and hoping for the payoff.

Best wishes.
Right, we don't know the company or its reasons for these HR moves. That's a huge disadvantage when trying to offer fair advice.
by Fallible
Sun Feb 25, 2024 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE-ing In, Quitting versus Getting FIRE-d - Talking to Boss Tomorrow
Replies: 148
Views: 22529

Re: FIRE-ing In, Quitting versus Getting FIRE-d - Talking to Boss Tomorrow

I'll sign whatever HR wants Absolutely do not do this without understanding and knowing every implication of what it means. HR is not your friend. HR is not there to make your transition easier. HR is there for the sole purpose of procteting the company, at all expense, including yours. Doesn't sound to me like you are ready for this conversation, which means you should deflect. And this is the simple reality the OP is dealing with. It's not about this HR manager or her motives, competency, experience, etc., etc. It's not even just about HR or this particular manager; it's about the company she is representing, i.e., what the company wants. The poster "physics 911" offers good advice for the OP to "deflect." In this cas...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 1372
Views: 165352

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

Here's a later "Washington Post" article on the Cowles scam posted above and the seemingly endless variety of scams perpetrated by scammers who are smarter and more competent than we'd like to believe:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... mnist-50k/
by Fallible
Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are Good Investments for Someone with Low Risk Tolerance?
Replies: 30
Views: 3900

Re: What are Good Investments for Someone with Low Risk Tolerance?

ApeAttack wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:06 am
jaMichael wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:30 am AI stocks and low risk tolerance don’t go together. Have you read a primer on investing, such as the Bogleheads Guide to Investing? That might be a good place to start.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... _Investing
That was my first thought too. Many stocks and low risk tolerance don't go together, let alone AI related stocks.
Also my first thought re the AI-related stock. Yikes.

OP, what do you mean by low risk tolerance? The book, Bogleheads' Guide to Investing as recommended above, nicely explains RT and there's also an RT page in the wiki, both of which can help determine one's personal, emotional risk tolerance:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Risk_tolerance
by Fallible
Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any recommendation of a book that chronicles the downward spiral of an ordinary person
Replies: 102
Views: 9199

Re: Any recommendation of a book that chronicles the downward spiral of an ordinary person

mjhfx1 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:31 pm
Random Poster wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:03 pm I probably should start writing my autobiography….thanks for the reminder.
I like your idea. I wanted to do the same, but too bad I can't write. If you end up completing yours, please share :)
OP, you write quite well, as you show in your replies here. If you really want to try an autobiography, there are many ways to learn how, such as college courses, writer workshops, etc. And a lot can be learned in just trying. Whatever, don't give up looking for that "book," but don't give up on your own abilities.

As for recommending that book you're looking for, I couldn't come up with one as I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "ordinary." It's a slippery word.
by Fallible
Wed Feb 14, 2024 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 7638
Views: 1712570

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

YeahBuddy wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:15 pm An American Sickness - How Healthcare Became Big Business and How You Can Take It Back - By Elisabeth Rosenthal
I'm just on Part 1 of the book and although I think it will make patients better informed about how healthcare now is, as she writes, "exactly what the market's financial incentives demand," the real challenge is how we can "change the rules of the game."
by Fallible
Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial advisor selection
Replies: 15
Views: 1278

Re: Financial advisor selection

HipCoyote wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:07 am Look on the BH wiki site to see what a 1% AUM fee will do to your portfolio over time. It ain’t pretty. ...
Good advice on the wiki's showing the "ain't pretty" impact of the AUM fee over time:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/How_muc ... y_years%3F
by Fallible
Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Rakenthaler: Index funds have officially won
Replies: 1
Views: 796

Re: John Rakenthaler: Index funds have officially won

Thanks for posting. I found this especially interesting, maybe a little surprising, that the financial services industry "hasn't skipped a beat": Today, as then, most older investors who have accumulated substantial assets seek professional help. The industry’s continued success demonstrated that what investors truly needed was not better funds. (Although with low-cost index funds, they usually got them.) They needed better service. They needed advisors who thought more about their needs and less about products. They needed advisors who devoted more time to their goals, risk tolerances, and tax situations. The financial-advisory business has obliged. Not entirely, of course. Progress is inevitably fitful. But I am confident in sta...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your favorite book?
Replies: 186
Views: 19921

Re: What is your favorite book?

Whenever I feel 'read out' and need a reading break but can't stop reading, I have found books about the great authors, rather than by them, were a break of sorts. That would include Wolfe, Hemingway, Fitzgerald, etc., and the best book I've read about them is A. Scott Berg's Maxwell Perkins: Editor of Genius. Reading it, I often thought how we all need a Maxwell Perkins who can understand us, what we're trying to do, why we often fail at it, and how to help us.
by Fallible
Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't asset allocations also be passively managed by following the markets?
Replies: 51
Views: 3571

Re: Why can't asset allocations also be passively managed by following the markets?

Why wouldn't most people also want to choose their asset allocation between stocks and bonds (and other assets) passively, based on the total market cap of the respective markets? The allocation between stocks and bonds is mostly about how you control risk. Why would I let someone else decide how much risk to take in my portfolio? I know my own circumstances and want to control that. It has been my experience that most people have a really bad grasp on risk and their own actual need and tolerance. It does seem that many investors generally have a limited understanding of risk, i.e., they think mainly of stock risk, but not always what that risk means for them personally, emotionally, and how much risk they can and want to tolerate when the...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing paralysis
Replies: 39
Views: 2809

Re: Investing paralysis

New here. I am starting a second wave of investing into my IRA now that I am in a position to do so. Since the S&P is at record highs, and the fact that the Fed/govt propped up the market during COVID, I am finding myself reluctant to put any funds in right now. The recession that should've happened to balance out the COVID highs never manifested in 2023, so it is making it seem ever more likely that a more drastic correction is inevitable soon. I would hate to contribute money and see a 10-20% correction. If it is helpful, I have 25-30 years before I'd need to access this money. Thank you all for your thoughts. The most important thing you've said here is nearly the last, i.e., you have 25-30 years before needing the money. The least ...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:26 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Are any BH's not wealthy?
Replies: 165
Views: 25638

Re: Are any BH's not wealthy?

This isn't a whoa is me post but sometimes reading this forum makes me depressed as to how far financially I seem to be behind most of the people who post here. I know we are all responsible for our path in life. But... I read many "I have $1.5m in a Roth IRA and no debt and my HOI is $200k per year" posts. Are any BH's here not wealthy? Just normal middle or lower class people? It would be nice to know I'm not alone, that's all. There may be some bias in how you're reading forum posters. For example, if some posts make you feel "behind" and "alone," that may say more about you than about them, i.e., a matter of generalizing specific posts to the forum overall. And I think we all may do that to some extent, e....
by Fallible
Sat Feb 03, 2024 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard's website - [helping an] older individual investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1531

Re: Vanguard's website - older individual investor

For my mom, we just told her that she had enough money and she didn't need to worry about it so long as we made prudent decisions. We took away online access from most of her financial accounts because she got confused and locked up the account plus we were afraid she'd make a transaction by mistake. She had a piece of paper with her passwords on it so we cross out the site (like ssa.gov) and wrote "no password". Good call out. I wonder if I over engineered this thing. Do they have a need to know or do I need them to know? I will probe and adjust. Also, do they have sufficient ability to know, or might they have physical or cognitive health issues, in particular those that are progressive and could make it increasingly difficult ...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Assessment - Mistake with Shifting to More Conservative AA?
Replies: 17
Views: 1209

Re: Portfolio Assessment - Mistake with Shifting to More Conservative AA?

Good morning- I'm seeking feedback on my portfolio approach and if I've made a mistake recently when making AA adjustments. I'm wondering if prematurely shifted my AA from 90/10 to 80/20. ... Additional Context I posted on the forum a few weeks ago after noticing my AA had shifted from my initial goal of 75/25 to 90/10. Part of this shift was intentional as I began to put most of my Roth 401K funding towards stock index funds after the COVID downturn and never shifted back to bond purchasing. But I didn't realize how far my AA had shifted. So, I sought feedback on the forum and, after hearing a range of opinions, decided to shift funding back back to an 80/20 AA. When I made the shift, I was thinking that it was still somewhat aggressive c...
by Fallible
Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will AI Change Investing?
Replies: 111
Views: 11004

Re: How Will AI Change Investing?

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:10 pm
Fallible wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:37 pm
Ultimately in many areas, it's not what AI can do to help humans, but whether AI can take over for, or from, them and how far down the road that might be if it can't be stopped.
Fallible,

I can count on human stupidity in using AI to cause even bigger stock market blow up like HFT.

KlangFool
Could AI improve humans, e.g., brain structures, to be less stupid or to have more (or total?) emotional control? Or is it best for AI to just take over for humans? And that, of course, leads to tons more questions about AI's impact.
by Fallible
Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing Index Investing with Loved ones
Replies: 11
Views: 2014

Re: Sharing Index Investing with Loved ones

I'm young and fully subscribed to the Boglehead philosophy. I'm planning and seeing a path to a comfortable retirement. I spend a significant amount of time learning about finance to make sure I'm making the right decisions for me, which is why it hurts to see my parents not do the same for themselves. They are rapidly approaching retirement age and they fall well below the average retirement savings for their age. The average is depressing enough but they are below that. They seem to be sold on active managers with high fees. They also seem to be sold on modifying their portfolio to have the risk profile of someone in their early 30s. I've briefly mentioned to them before how much I have enjoyed index investing, and have shared the disapp...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 28, 2024 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did Jason Zweig stop writing for WSJ?
Replies: 12
Views: 4612

Re: Did Jason Zweig stop writing for WSJ?

Jason is not only back now but with a great column titled "What I Learned When I Stopped Watching the Stock Market" - and an opening of a somewhat personal nature that I thought was equally important, especially for those considering a sabbatical: I just pulled a Rip Van Winkle—and maybe you should, too. I’m back at my regular post at The Wall Street Journal after being away on book leave. That long hiatus disengaged me from the daily hubbub of markets so I could frame investing ideas in a longer historical and broader psychological perspective. Like the character in the Washington Irving story who woke up after a 20-year nap, I’ve returned to a world both transformed and hauntingly familiar. The best part about coming back after ...
by Fallible
Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will AI Change Investing?
Replies: 111
Views: 11004

Re: How Will AI Change Investing?

I don’t grasp the full potential of AI. At present, stock investing includes a lot of high-frequency trading done by supercomputers. I imagine AI will inject into the investing process at some point, for better or worse. How do people see AI impacting the process and market movements? Will it take some randomness out of the “random walk”? Could it add more volatility, take some away, result in more efficient pricing, get International to go up 😆, other? How about "other"? The questions boil down to dealing with human behavior, with the fear and greed that are now what the market is largely about. How will AI deal with those deep and powerful emotions? Or will it find a way to override them, to override humaneness, humanity? Human...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How did you get over your fear of investing in the market?
Replies: 64
Views: 5019

Re: How did you get over your fear of investing in the market?

I kept reading and learning about investing until I discovered the wisdom of Jack Bogle and low-cost index funds for the long term.
by Fallible
Wed Jan 24, 2024 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Taylor Larimore made a difference in my financial life - Salute to Taylor's 100th
Replies: 53
Views: 10224

Re: How Taylor Larimore made a difference in my financial life - Salute to Taylor's 100th

When I received a signed copy of Taylor's book, The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio , I was surprised and, yes, a little disapponted - it seemed so small in size, even thin if compared to the other BH "Guide" books on investing and planning and most other great books on investing. Of course, I was not disappointed for long, in fact only as long as it took me to get to the book's Foreword by John C. Bogle: Taylor's idea combined the nth degree of diversification, a sensible investment balance between stocks and bonds, efficiency, and economy. "Simplicity" is the watchword. And I realized that the physical size of Taylor's "gem" of a book, all 70-some pages of it, attests to simplicity perfectly. So...
by Fallible
Wed Jan 24, 2024 11:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂
Replies: 429
Views: 41907

Re: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂

I'll keep it simple: HAPPY 100th TAYLOR! and THANK YOU for reminding all of us to keep it simple. :beer
by Fallible
Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommendation for "Boring" investments
Replies: 10
Views: 1647

Re: Recommendation for "Boring" investments

My recommendation would be to first fully understand what you mean by "boring" and how it could change or tie in with your current overall plan. Do you have an Investment Policy Statement that lays out your overall plan, especially the rationale for it? If not, now would be a good time to create one; if you do, now's the time to revisit it and see how far and in what way you may be straying from it.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement
by Fallible
Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Management and Coping Techniques
Replies: 16
Views: 2038

Re: Risk Management and Coping Techniques

There is an excellent book by WSJ columnist and Boglehead Jason Zweig that includes examples of those who take extreme risks in one area yet are almost risk-averse in other areas of their lives. The book is Your Money & Your Brain with a chapter titled "Risk." Other chapters are on fear, regret, confidence, etc.

A classic book on risk is Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein.
by Fallible
Sat Jan 20, 2024 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
Replies: 203
Views: 26134

Re: S&P 500 Closes at Record High

Florida Orange wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2024 10:20 am A record high is nice, but I don't get too happy about the highs for the same reason I don't get too unhappy about the lows. We all know the stock market is volatile; some degree of emotional stability is imperative for stock market investors. Just keep smiling.
:thumbsup I, too, keep smiling through the ups and downs, but my record-high smile is a happy one and the record-low smile a knowing one, as in knowing it was coming. Somewhere in there is the emotional stability of which you speak. :happy
by Fallible
Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP Jack Bogle (Jack died Jan. 16, 2019)
Replies: 27
Views: 2960

Re: RIP Jack Bogle (Jack died Jan. 16, 2019)

Simple, low-cost, tax-efficient, long-term, stay the course, DIY indexing. Thank you, Jack Bogle, and RIP.

And thank you, Mel, for this important remembrance.
by Fallible
Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 11037
Views: 2066335

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Killers of the Flower Moon on Apple TV, rated R, Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, 2023, crime / drama / history, 3 h 26 m long. When oil is discovered in 1920s Oklahoma under Osage Nation land, the Osage people are murdered one by one - until the FBI steps in to unravel the mystery. A very good drama, well acted. This movie won a ton of awards. I liked it - but the movie could have been shorter. Saw it last night. 3.5 hours of watching Leonardo DiCaprio being dumb is about 3 hours too long. ... Haven't seen the movie yet, just previews, but based on the excellent book that I've read, I doubt that DiCaprio, with those piercing eyes and sensitive, intelligent expressions, could ever 'be' Ernest Burkhart, at least not compared to a photo of...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Beating the market too easy?
Replies: 51
Views: 6648

Re: Beating the market too easy?

simpleisbest wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:44 am I started picking individual stocks a year ago and finding it too easy to beat the market. ...
A year ago? How about long term, say, at least 10 years?
by Fallible
Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 7638
Views: 1712570

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Chv396 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:29 am “The Index Revolution”, by Charles D. Ellis
As Burton Malkiel wrote about Ellis in his Foreword to the book:
The Index Revolution is not only a historical explanation of the growing acceptance of indexing over the past 50 years, but also an account of the personal evolution of a former believer in active management.
by Fallible
Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil change place left cap off... many miles driven
Replies: 21
Views: 3074

Re: Oil change place left cap off... many miles driven

I'm really sorry to read what happened to you and realize how lucky I was when the oil cap was left off on my car some years ago. I discovered it when I got home and checked under the hood and there was the cap sitting next to the opening. I put it on and called the shop and they apologized but I did not go back to that shop again. The only reason I checked under the hood was because I had read about similar problems in other shops. But in one case I didn't even have to bother with the hood because I noticed oil that had just been changed now leaking onto my garage floor. This time I drove the car back to the shop immediately and they checked it and said a part (I didn't understand this) had not been tightened all the way. As for the mess o...
by Fallible
Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your approach to portfolio performance monitoring?
Replies: 11
Views: 1485

Re: What's your approach to portfolio performance monitoring?

Hello, Happy new year! Just seeking general advice here. I'm looking at my portfolio to see how I can improve in 2024. What's your personal approach to reviewing the performance of your portfolio? How often do you do it (quarterly, annually)? Do you review the performance of specific funds? What are the key metrics you look at? What are common pitfalls? I'm 30(F) and built a portfolio with the help of this group and one of the Boglehead retirement books. Then I got better at saving. Now I have enough money that I want to hone my approach a little bit more to get better at rebalancing, and learn a bit more about these funds that I put so much of my life savings in. I want to know what works for you and why! Welcome to the forum! I think It'...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning Violin as an adult? 7 years, new recording
Replies: 350
Views: 60002

Re: Learning Violin as an adult? 7 years, new recording

... I think there’s a BH analogy to investing to be made . I possess no special musical talent but have gotten here simply by making a plan (lessons, daily practice) and then sticking with it over the long term…though seven years isn’t that long. And as most BHs know, folks don’t see the years of incremental gains and “staying the course” that lead to a good financial outcome, they just see the outcome and may chalk it up to any number of things. This hasn’t been any different. Sure, I’ll never be a pro violinist (Uber rich) but I can certainly get proficient enough to play and sound like I know what I’m doing (a very comfortable retirement)…define a long term goal, make a plan, follow through, put in the time and stick with it. Good analo...
by Fallible
Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Apple ... stay the course or scale back?
Replies: 155
Views: 27335

Re: Apple ... stay the course or scale back?

The worst is yet to come for Apple. KlangFool Just curious, why do you say that? It's just his opinion and everyone has their own. Any retiree should have Apple in their portfolio simply because of the revenue they bring in each and every quarter. While they might not make their "projected" revenue as expected by analysts they continue to bring in billions of dollars each and every quarter. NOT everyone is a conservative investor and there are some with disposable income which they use to wager with. Some go to Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Me, I ocassionally day trade and do well. I personally like the Magnificent 7 and currently dabble in NVidia since it is a momentum equity. When an equity can jump sometimes 5 to 10 points in a ...
by Fallible
Sat Jan 06, 2024 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Apple ... stay the course or scale back?
Replies: 155
Views: 27335

Re: Apple ... stay the course or scale back?

Apple has had 2 downgrades this past week and the stock has taken a major drubbing the last 30 days. We've had major financial successes with the exception of these past 30 days. How are fellow BH's responding if by chance they have Apple in their portfolios. Rebalance or stay the course? My immediate concern is the Federal government according to the newswires "might" take Ap;ple to court on another antitrust suit which definitely will impact the share price. What say you? OP, the questions in your topic line and in your post ("Stay the course or scale back" or to "rebalance or stay the course") differ somewhat in that scaling back would mean lowering risk, while rebalancing usually means staying the course. ...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead's remorse?
Replies: 102
Views: 19558

Re: Boglehead's remorse?

OP, what do you mean by "Boglehead's Remorse?" I ask because the more you explain what happened - essentially selling to buy real estate - the more I wonder what the Bogleheads have to do with this. And if the real estate purchase "forced your hand," then, in addition to the Bogleheads, what has market timing - which is investing based on what you predict the market will do - got to do with it? if I understand correctly you sold individual stock to invest in commercial real estate. neither one of those things have anything to do with being a boglehead? Boglehead philosophy / JL Collins got me started on tinkering with my portfolio of individual equities to begin with. I started selling off quality equities with large ga...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead's remorse?
Replies: 102
Views: 19558

Re: Boglehead's remorse?

From your post I tried to build a simple timeline of events. 2019, $350K (and now claiming to be a boglehead). 2019, Starting that year, I began selling off these individual equities and reinvesting in index funds. 2022. my portfolio grew to about $600K by the end of 2022. 2023, in January, I still owned a very large position in MSFT Needing the money and with market uncertainty at the time, I sold the remainder of my equities. 2024, The AI boom in 2023 would have made me an extra $100K in MSFT. You held MSFT from 2019 to end 2022 or early 2023 when it hit its bottom and lost 28% of it's value, then you sold it since you needed funds and speculated that it would drop further(market uncertainty were your words). That is basically attempting...
by Fallible
Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead's remorse?
Replies: 102
Views: 19558

Re: Boglehead's remorse?

Not sure how you mean "Boglehead's Remorse," but this sounds more like stock picker's remorse from taking on too much risk. It also sounds a bit like blaming the Bogleheads' philosophy for stock risk when the philosophy specifically warns against taking on too much risk. Whatever, a lot of us Bogleheads have been down that risky road, at least far enough to know it's not right for us.
by Fallible
Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A simple way to objectify risk tolerance
Replies: 14
Views: 2020

Re: A simple way to objectify risk tolerance

Bogleheads, This post might be rediscovering the wheel for some of you but, in case it does not, I want to suggest a method to objectively decide on the ideal asset allocation (bonds vs. stocks). Current methods try to qualitatively assess the individual's "ability", "willingness" and "need" to take risk. This, however, relies on a rather subjective process (e.g., questionnaires) that tries to simulate behavior. As past behavior does not guarantee future behavior, any current decision on the asset allocation is error-prone, as a sudden downwards volatility in the future may cause panic and therefore a violent drift from the “pre-determined” asset allocation. The data-based method proposed here aims to objectif...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to deal with FOMO or bragging friends
Replies: 19
Views: 2021

Re: How to deal with FOMO or bragging friends

NabSh wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:09 pm How to deal with FOMO or bragging friends

So I sure I am not the only one who deals with friends or family members where they have made brilliant investments of getting extraordinary returns.

Obviously these returns come with riskier investments.
(Individual stocks, Bitcoin).

While all most all of my investments are in “boring” ETFs and Mutual Funds.

I’m looking for advice how do you deal with those situations?
If you have uncontrollable FOMO and you think it would make you feel better, why not ask them for proof (year-end statements, etc.) of their extraordinary returns? Their initial reactions alone should tell you something, maybe that there is nothing for you to fear missing out on.
by Fallible
Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should IPS contain a definition of success?
Replies: 37
Views: 4076

Re: Should IPS contain a definition of success?

TheTimeLord wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:18 am Should one's IPS have a clear well defined definition of success and a plan of how to invest once that is achieved?
An IPS is deeply personal. It's all about you, all about helping you stay a course that is right for you. If the definition and plan you mention can help you stay on course, why not include it?
by Fallible
Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed - 1st time investor
Replies: 59
Views: 5902

Re: Help needed - 1st time investor

... 3rd option could be do it myself but I don’t know enough to feel confident doing it. ... Welcome to the forum! As a teacher, you already know that there's only one way to deal with not knowing enough and that is to learn. And in this case, there's no getting around learning. Even if you were to go with the first options, you would have to learn a great deal about investing in order to know how well they were working out for you and to know how the true cost of those fees will eat away at your returns over the long run. And you are 34, with time on your side to check out the wiki recommendations here before deciding how "aggressive" you can and want to be based on your ability, willingness (risk tolerance), and need to take ri...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
Replies: 102
Views: 107816

Re: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling

Avidswimmer wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 9:34 am We’re all ... completely rational...
...
Right? Right?
Wrong, wrong, of course, but it's a good read.
by Fallible
Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the investment climate like in the bull market 10 years ago?
Replies: 55
Views: 7256

Re: What was the investment climate like in the bull market 10 years ago?

In 2013, my personal investment climate was still mentally/emotionally back in 2008, still blown away by how seemingly fast it all happened; by how much had happened; by what had happened and why; by how poorly Wall Street CEOs understood risk (except for their risk managers no one would believe until it was too late); by how little the Street cared about client risk; by how those responsible for the worst of it avoided prosecution; by how fast recovery began (though not for countless thousands caught up in the worst of it), and by how the recovery continued and went on to become a record bull market.
by Fallible
Fri Dec 29, 2023 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overcoming behavioral pitfalls
Replies: 62
Views: 6205

Re: Overcoming behavioral pitfalls

How much is AAPL up today? Don't know, don't care, because I have chosen not to take on single-stock risk. How much are LC growth funds up today? Don't know, don't care, because I have chosen not to take on LC growth-fund risk. That's how I do it. That's how I do it, too - almost. I see the significance of "don't know, don't care" as believing in your choices about risk, about believing in yourself and that you are capable of making good choices worthy of an asset allocation that is in turn worthy of staying the course. Judging from the OP's replies to the good advice here, he knows what's right intellectually, but there's an internal struggle to believe in himself, in his choices, that he is, or can be, stronger than the temptat...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 822

Re: Asset Allocation

Hello Bogleheads- I 62 and my wife 54 are currently contributing combined 15k to Roth and 5k to tax-deferred a year. We have around 1.35m in tax-deferred accounts. 150k Roth. 200k of this total in 5 Myga's 40k each 4-5-6-7-8 year averaging 5.34% yr. This will be bridge to to delaying SS from age 65-70 if i decide to retire at 65. Wife is considering retiring at 60 or going part time to keep health insurance. We started out 60/40 about three years ago but have de-risked slowly over this period and are now 50/50. With projected 10 year stock returns to be lower than average will 50/50 get us the growth we need or is 60/40 or 70/30 a better fit? And should our AA be different now while still working as opposed to when we are both retired? Any...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 822

Re: Asset Allocation

Hello Bogleheads- I 62 and my wife 54 are currently contributing combined 15k to Roth and 5k to tax-deferred a year. We have around 1.35m in tax-deferred accounts. 150k Roth. 200k of this total in 5 Myga's 40k each 4-5-6-7-8 year averaging 5.34% yr. This will be bridge to to delaying SS from age 65-70 if i decide to retire at 65. Wife is considering retiring at 60 or going part time to keep health insurance. We started out 60/40 about three years ago but have de-risked slowly over this period and are now 50/50. With projected 10 year stock returns to be lower than average will 50/50 get us the growth we need or is 60/40 or 70/30 a better fit? And should our AA be different now while still working as opposed to when we are both retired? Any...