Search found 280 matches

by Lucio
Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest for 200 years?
Replies: 29
Views: 6033

Re: How to invest for 200 years?

The Fugger Foundation has been a going concern for nearly 500 years.

http://www.fugger.de
by Lucio
Sat Jul 14, 2012 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) Cost - Has your employer improved your plan? How?
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: 401(k) Cost - Has your employer improved your plan? How?

There are other, potentially unhelpful changes coming, too. The brokerage window may be going away.

See this post Possible changes coming to 401k brokerage windows via DOL.

Lucio
by Lucio
Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible changes coming to 401k brokerage windows via DOL
Replies: 1
Views: 529

Possible changes coming to 401k brokerage windows via DOL

It appears that the U.S Department of Labor may require greater monitoring and fiduciary responsibility on the part of employers who offer a brokerage window in the company 401(k) plan. Field Assistance Bulletin No. 2012-02 Q30: A plan offers an investment platform consisting of a large number of registered mutual funds of multiple fund families into which participants and beneficiaries may direct the investment of assets held in or contributed to their individual accounts. Although the plan fiduciary selected the platform provider, the fiduciary did not designate any of the funds on the platform as "designated investment alternatives" under the plan. Is this platform itself a designated investment alternative for purposes of the ...
by Lucio
Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World's worst stock market losses.
Replies: 41
Views: 7366

Re: World's worst stock market losses.

wade wrote: The biggest drawdowns for the world portfolio were:

Code: Select all

1913-20  -52%
1929-31  -53%
1942-47  -30%
1973-74  -47%
2000-02  -44%
2008     -40%
Wade, the actual number will probably depend on country of residence. Japan nullified the obligations of all non-allied bond holders and, I believe, equity holders at the start of hostilities. I recall that Reinhart and Rogoff devote a few pages to this.

Lucio
by Lucio
Mon Mar 12, 2012 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World's worst stock market losses.
Replies: 41
Views: 7366

Re: World's worst stock market losses.

ProfessorX wrote:
Lucio wrote:Something odd about this.

Haven't several major markets suffered 100% losses? Isn't that the real worst case?

Shanghai in 1941/1949
St. Petersburg in 1918
Cairo in 1954/1961
etc.

Lucio

Those cases are probably not in "the Dimson, Marsh, Staunton Global Returns Dataset."
The data are available:
http://icf.som.yale.edu/shanghai-stock-exchange

http://icf.som.yale.edu/st-petersburg-s ... e1865-1917

Cairo awaits some enterprising French-speaking graduate student.

Wade, why don't you add those in to the mix?

Lucio
by Lucio
Sun Mar 11, 2012 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World's worst stock market losses.
Replies: 41
Views: 7366

Re: World's worst stock market losses.

Something odd about this.

Haven't several major markets suffered 100% losses? Isn't that the real worst case?

Shanghai in 1941/1949
St. Petersburg in 1918
Cairo in 1954/1961
etc.

Lucio
by Lucio
Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor loadings and "patterns"
Replies: 52
Views: 3517

Re: Factor loadings and "patterns"

camontgo wrote:
VanessaB wrote:Really? Have you tried doing the FF regression on a portfolio of REITs? It matches the regression pattern, but the types of stocks aren't even in the same ballpark.
Yes, I have tried that, and I agree with you that REITs have a value loading that doesn't match up with their B/M characteristics.
But, REITs are specifically excluded from the model. See the 1992 Fama and French paper.
by Lucio
Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama/French bond factor data
Replies: 1
Views: 493

Re: Fama/French bond factor data

Most people use the Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation yearbook monthly data for long term corporate bonds, long term treasurys and treasury bills. Most research libraries should have a copy of the book. Use Worldcat.org to find the library nearest to you. Some clever googling will probably find it, too.

That said, there are reservations about the SBBI default premium data. See, for example,
Ibbotson’s Default Premium: Risky Data
by Lucio
Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Small Cap Value
Replies: 23
Views: 4772

Re: Emerging Market Small Cap Value

Current portfolio: 30% VBR 20% VWO 30% TLT 20% GLD (Rotated with cash depending on real interest rates) Current loadings: Alpha 0.030301591 Beta 0.52664393 Small 0.096266897 Value 0.013822291 That's an odd way to use the three factor model. Are you regressing the performance of VWO, which contains only emerging market stocks, against the US equity benchmarks provided by Ken French? Currency movements alone will give you bad results. Also, including assets like bonds or gold in a regression model that explicitly excludes those assets seems weird. Try using the five factor model for a combined portfolio of US equities and debt or use the two factor model for the bond portfolio. Try breaking your portfolio into parts: US equities,developed ma...
by Lucio
Thu Feb 09, 2012 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100 year investment
Replies: 38
Views: 3548

Re: 100 year investment

What would the best investment for a good amount of money that isn't meant to be spent for 100 years? It is a trust fund meant to build family wealth. Obviously since it isn't to be touched for a very long time it presents an unusual circumstance. Any thoughts are appreciated. Thanks. If we're talking about more than $50 million, consider which assets have done well when governments or societies have failed. Some things are harder to successfully expropriate than others. The last hundred years has shown that people who owned real property, buildings that were not destroyed, paintings, and sovereign bonds were able to make a recovery. Equities, not so much. For example, the current Russian government settled some of the debts of the Tsarist...
by Lucio
Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What skills to learn to improve career options?
Replies: 29
Views: 3238

Re: What skills to learn to improve career options?

nimo956 wrote:How do you think I should develop my skills to be able to move into this area? Should I spend two years as a management consultant to get some experience in a wide variety of industries? Should I read up more on Financial Management, Statistics, and Econ in my spare time? Should I learn new skills like how to program in SQL, PHP, R, or SAS? Should I go back to school, either part-time or full-time, for an MBA?

Thanks for your help.
Have you considered taking the CFA or FRM exams? Do more senior people in your field have those designation?

Search around; there are many good comparisons of the advantages and disadvantages of the CFA program with respect to an MBA program.
by Lucio
Mon Jan 16, 2012 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding a Primary Care Physician
Replies: 41
Views: 4603

Re: Finding a Primary Care Physician

I like to approach the problem quantitatively:

1) Did the physician pass all of his licensure exams on the very first attempt (USMLE, State, etc.)?

2) Did the physician score above my MCAT cut-off minimum?

3)What was the rank of her residency program at the time of attendance?

Then I sort by practice management, bedside manner and all of the rest.

There are of course some very smart, but entirely horrible doctors. However, it is my belief that there are very few great diagnosticians who are not very smart. And I care most about getting the diagnosis right the first time.

Lucio
by Lucio
Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: advice for multi-round quantitative finance interview proces
Replies: 17
Views: 1957

Re: advice for multi-round quantitative finance interview pr

Also, Erlang seems to be popular in that field and quite unknown in the sciences. Try learning a concurrent language like Erlang if you are looking for a high-frequency position. It may set you apart from the other applicants.

Lucio
by Lucio
Tue Nov 29, 2011 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: advice for multi-round quantitative finance interview proces
Replies: 17
Views: 1957

Re: advice for multi-round quantitative finance interview pr

"A Practical Guide To Quantitative Finance Interviews" by Xinfeng Zhou

Use the Bogleheads' Amazon link to buy it.

Lucio
by Lucio
Thu Nov 17, 2011 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?
Replies: 45
Views: 30735

Re: Total Bond Index during inflation

The Barclays Capital Aggregate, formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate, did not come into existence until 1986 . To sell the index and for other reasons, Lehman created a synthetic index for the previous 10 years based on their own trading books. I would hazard to guess that they fudged the data just a little bit to help with sales (Then again, maybe not; Sidney Homer was still around in those days and probably had a hand in the index). How did they decide originally what kinds of bonds should and should not be included in the index? And when e.g. TIPS were introduced, how did they determine whether or not they should be added? My story was a half-remembered truth: according to The international guide to securities market indices by Henry ...
by Lucio
Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?
Replies: 45
Views: 30735

Re: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?

nisiprius wrote:How do you perform searches like that?
Many public and private libraries have a subscription to the Morningstar Investment Research Center database. Try your local library's website.

If you have access to that, you can search mutual funds with the criterion "Inception Date" before such-and-such a date.

Lucio
by Lucio
Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?
Replies: 45
Views: 30735

Re: Total Bond Index during inflation

In looking at the chart more closely, it appears that the Bar Cap Index is not charted until 1975 (it may not have existed prior). I guess I need new reading glasses; I initially thought Putnam and Bar Cap were superimposed upon one another. As Rick Perry might say - "oops". Of course, I doubt it would change the conclusion much, if any. The Barclays Capital Aggregate, formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate, did not come into existence until 1986 . To sell the index and for other reasons, Lehman created a synthetic index for the previous 10 years based on their own trading books. I would hazard to guess that they fudged the data just a little bit to help with sales (Then again, maybe not; Sidney Homer was still around in those da...
by Lucio
Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures Article
Replies: 3
Views: 530

Re: Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures Article

You should be very skeptical of the claims contained in that paper. The authors have grown rich by telling a story that large financial institutions paid them to tell.

See: Imagine Investing in Commodities From 2004-2008, And Losing Money

Lucio
by Lucio
Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity has a new Spartan fund: FRXIX (and FSRVX)
Replies: 4
Views: 4717

Re: Fidelity has a new Spartan fund: FRXIX (and FSRVX)

Khafji wrote:I noticed recently that Fidelity has a new Spartan offering:

Spartan Real Estate Index Fund - Investor Class (FRXIX, 0.33% ER)
Spartan Real Estate Index Fund - Fidelity Advantage Class (FSRVX, 0.19% ER)

It appears to follow the Dow Jones US Select Securities Index. Is this similar to Vanguard's VGSIX that follows the MSCI US REIT Index? The top ten holdings are identical, but I don't really understand how to compare indices against each other yet....

--Khafji
Over the last ten years, the performance of the two indices has been nearly identical.

Lucio
by Lucio
Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese CD's
Replies: 55
Views: 10748

Re: Chinese CD's

wshang,

This sounds like an interesting way to lose money. It reminds me of the notes that Lehman sold in Hong Kong that were supposedly just like CDs, only better.

If memory serves me, the Chinese version of the US FDIC has never actually had to execute its mission; no failing banks have ever been rescued and, thus, it's more of a theoretical protection. (I can't remember or find a reference if the bond scandal of 1994 caused the failure of any protected banks. Maybe it did.)

Good luck.

Lucio
by Lucio
Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: math major
Replies: 61
Views: 6582

Re: math major

Would you recommend someone major in math vs engineering? I wonder if we're "suggesting" to ds to put his strengths into the wrong basket. He's incredibly gifted in math. Off the charts iq wise. We know that because he's also dyslexic and he was quite the puzzle growing up. Have him take the American High School Mathematics Examination, which feed into the American Mathematics Competitions . For the Win! is also a good place to get started with problem solving. What everyone else said about mathematics as a career seems reasonable to me; however, there is one aspect to prepare for: the intellectual hard stop. At some point, your student will reach a level beyond which he cannot go. It may happen in the third course of calculus, o...
by Lucio
Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: breakdown of us debt
Replies: 26
Views: 4894

Random Poster wrote:Can the US government not allow a certain nation (or nations, or groups, etc) to buy US debt?
One example of another country doing something like this is Japan during the second world war. The Japanese government stopped paying interest and nullified all bonds held by owners in the Allied countries. Reinhart and Rogoff discuss this in "This Time Is Different."

Lucio
by Lucio
Sun Jul 17, 2011 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Worst Move ever ?
Replies: 28
Views: 5264

Re: Vanguard's Worst Move ever ?

blevine wrote:Vanguard's Worst Move ever ?

Is this it ? Other events worse than this you recall ?
I would like to suggest that the closure of the Vanguard Specialized Technology Fund (closed June, 1994) at the beginning of the greatest rally in technology stocks that any of us will live to see was a larger blunder.

Lucio
by Lucio
Sat Jun 18, 2011 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)
Replies: 33
Views: 6107

Re: how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)

SlowEddie wrote:Does anyone have experience in buying individual sovereign bonds? My research to date has produced no low-cost on-line broker who traffics in these assets. Here’s a somewhat outdated link that seems to support the difficulty: http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/balanc ... e0811.html
It appears that you may be able to buy German government bonds directly from the German equivalent of Treasury Direct, http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/startseite/

A brief description was given in this thread:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=516637

Lucio
by Lucio
Mon Jun 06, 2011 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama French Three Factor Model
Replies: 13
Views: 1859

Re: Fama French Three Factor Model

In Fama French Three Factor Model, Why a positive factor loading on size signifies orientation towards small cap stocks and a negative factor loading towards large cap stocks. Can some one tell the logic behind this?? The reason is that, historically, small cap stocks have had a higher return, on average, than large cap stocks. The Fama French model estimates expected return, so a small-cap bias will increase the expected return and a large-cap bias will decrease the expected return. I don't think that's quite right. The Fama and French regression factor is "Small minus Large" (SmL). They divide the market into two parts based on an arbitrary market capitalization cutoff. You can have a positive SmL coefficient for your portfolio...
by Lucio
Fri Apr 08, 2011 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pessimistiv view on TIPS
Replies: 19
Views: 3468

Re: Pessimistiv view on TIPS

You can hardly turn over an investing advice newsletter without finding a recommendation to buy TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities, to preserve the purchasing power of your dollar-denominated savings..... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703712504576244560197467054.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop Countries with far worse governments and much worse fiscal problems have issued and paid in full their inflation indexed debt. Off the top of my head: Brazil Israel UK France and their very ill-advised Giscards, the gold-backed bonds The Massachusetts Bay Colony (during the "not worth a continental" period) Finland paid off its inflation indexed debt and then passed a constitutional amendment to ban further indexe...
by Lucio
Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much of the market is institutional money?
Replies: 20
Views: 3231

Re: How much of the market is institutional money?

Outside wrote:I can't find a reliable source for this anywhere. My guess is that it's 70-80% and the rest are retail investors.

Thanks in advance.

-Chris
The Investment Company Institute Factbook, published annually, has that kind of information and much more.

It's here:
ICI Factbook

Note that the ICI is primarily concerned with corporate investment managers (i.e., mutual fund sponsors). I recall that they also describe the size and role of private endowments and other market participants.

Lucio
by Lucio
Sun Feb 20, 2011 10:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How Investing Works in Brazil
Replies: 32
Views: 4893

Re: How Investing Works in Brazil

ViverDeRenda wrote: I do think that I'm more diversified than buying a very concentrated index like the Ibovespa. What do you guys think?

If anyone has any question about investing here I would be very happy to answer it!
Thank you for describing the situation in Brazil.

As an aside, it may interest you that Bloomberg has a listing of all of the available Brazilian ETFs, index mutual funds and CEFs.
ETFs
Index mutual funds
Closed-end funds

Good luck.

Lucio
by Lucio
Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to convince my parents that I'm right?
Replies: 41
Views: 4286

Re: How to convince my parents that I'm right?

Quarantine wrote:Edit: A little bit of a background - I'm 23, and I'm living in a family-oriented Asian culture. These cultural differences, I believe, might be hard to understand compared to the American culture - I should know, my American partner has trouble understanding these cultural nuances sometimes. :P
I mean you no offense, but an appeal to tribal solidarity may help. Tell her you are putting the money where the [Bumiputras/Peranakan/other outsider group] cannot get it.

Lucio
by Lucio
Fri Feb 18, 2011 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #7: Skip foreign bonds!
Replies: 145
Views: 32188

Re: Grok's tip #7: Skip foreign bonds!

grok87 wrote:Tip #7/10: skip foreign bonds
Grok87,

Would you care to address bpp's model?
Globally-diversified portfolio return/risk calculator

Lucio
by Lucio
Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FF Loadings of Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1104

Re: FF Loadings of Funds

Sorry for formating,wasn't sure hot to get a good table in. Would be interested in feedback. Use the "code" tag: This is a monospaced font. All of your text will align. Also, a few quick points: 1) REITs are not included in the model. See the 1993 five factor model paper by Fama and French. 2) Extra care must be taken for funds that include foreign equities or are denominated in foreign currencies. The US benchmarks are not appropriate. Ken French publishes data for foreign value stocks, but you will need to find an appropriate benchmark for foreign small cap stocks. Boglehead RobertT has posted on several occasions about the benchmarks that he has used for this purpose. Try searching for his posts on the subject. Lucio
by Lucio
Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate factor loads?
Replies: 15
Views: 6582

Re: How to calculate factor loads?

Lucio wrote: To find the monthly returns of your funds, use the adjusted close value provided by Yahoo. So, for the Vanguard Small Cap Value fund (VISVX), use this:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=VISVX&a ... f=2009&g=m
I no longer trust the Yahoo! adjusted close data. There are too many errors and omissions in their recorded dividends. Instead, go directly to the mutual fund sponsor's data, or copy the values by hand from one of Morningstar's total return charts.

Lucio
by Lucio
Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking Stocks for the Long Haul
Replies: 48
Views: 6304

matt wrote:
bob90245 wrote:Don't fool yourself. Under the scenario of "a fundamental failure in the economy", even your safe assets like Treasury bonds will also be worth zero.
Not necessarily.
I would like to sell you some Confederate bonds at face value.

I also have some nice Weimar gold-backed bonds, redeemable in real gold, that I may be willing to part with at a slight discount.

Et cetera.

Lucio
by Lucio
Wed Feb 02, 2011 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying into Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 2840

Re: Buying into Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund

Hi everyone, thanks for your help. I asked my broker at a local brokerage (UOB Kay Hian) if I could buy into the Fund via their Internet trading platform and was told that they will need to obtain clearance from their Compliance department. Apparently, mine was an unusual request and had never come up before. Either I'm a genuinely unique case or I must be so totally ignorant of the right steps to take that this is the first time they had to attend to something so basic. I find it all very strange for my home country considering that we are trying to establish it as a financial hub for the Asian region yet for something as straightforward as this there seems to be so much complications. Thanks Nydad for the Vanguard Asia link. I had been t...
by Lucio
Wed Feb 02, 2011 12:34 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Need help in choosing online broker for non-US citizen
Replies: 35
Views: 5837

Actually I'm not even sure if they have access to overseas mutual funds - it looks like all they're concentrating on is foreign stocks and ETFs. Good enough. Try these Singapore and Malaysia listed ETFs: ISIN Name LU0455009851 db x-trackers MSCI World Index FR0010446914 Lyxor MSCI World MYL0800EA002 ABF Malaysia Bond Index MYL0820EA000 FTSE Bursa Malaysia MYL0822EA006 CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 Malaysia The ISINs that begin with "MY" are Malaysian. The "LU" refers to Luxembourg, while "FR" is France. More or less, this tells you which country's regulatory and tax scheme will apply to the funds. That gives you options for non-Malaysia stock, domestic stocks and one domestic bond fund. If you want foreign bonds, I would...
by Lucio
Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Need help in choosing online broker for non-US citizen
Replies: 35
Views: 5837

Quarantine wrote: I'll look into these EU domiciled funds - thanks! Actually, I should also probably see if there are any online EU discount brokers that accept foreign investors or not too.

Are there any other investment sites that cater to EU audience/domiciled funds? I discovered monevator [dot] com which seems to be a good start, but just wondering if you know of any others.
Look around for UCITS funds available in Malaysia or Singapore.

Lucio
by Lucio
Tue Feb 01, 2011 11:41 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Need help in choosing online broker for non-US citizen
Replies: 35
Views: 5837

Re: Need help in choosing online broker for non-US citizen

Etrade has a Singapore office.

I would not do business with a broker that does not have a local presence (or relatively local, as in the case of Singapore). Preferably, a broker in a well-regulated domicile.

You may save a little money by doing business with a foreign discount broker only to incur much greater tax or opportunity costs in the future. Consider the problems that a Malaysian investor may have experienced during 1998. For how long was the ringgit inconvertible? What would capital controls do to your investments? The reverse is also possible: your foreign held funds are held up by some crisis or another.

Good luck.

Lucio
by Lucio
Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:37 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Can I ask for portfolio help as a non-US resident?
Replies: 7
Views: 1931

Re: Can I ask for portfolio help as a non-US resident?

But of course, most of my investment now is in my local markets so I'm not sure exactly how to categorise my investment in a new topic to conform to that sticky. I'd appreciate the insights or comments! Thanks! :) Morningstar operates investment research websites for both Malaysia and Singapore: http://my.morningstar.com http://sg.morningstar.com There you will find a screening tool ("Fund Selector", I believe) that will allow you to search for mutual funds that match your interests. Sadly, it is difficult to search for low expense ratio or index funds. I suggest that you ignore the suggestions from Morningstar for top ranked or best performing funds; instead, focus on costs, fund company stewardship and diversification. Given th...
by Lucio
Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How important do you think it would be to learn Chinese now
Replies: 69
Views: 11377

Re: How important do you think it would be to learn Chinese

jumpin wrote:What about the next 10-30 years from now? 2050?
Master the English language to the highest level of fluency, in both the written and spoken forms.

I would not try to "market time" world history.

Lucio
by Lucio
Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting NYT article on DFA
Replies: 131
Views: 18426

That isn't a reflection of being "smug", it is a reflection of the business model they choose to pursue, and I can hardly fault a company for pursuing a successful business model that helps investors the same way that Vanguard helps investors (low cost, passively managed funds), and being successful at it. Hi, Bill, Speaking of their business model, how concerned are you about the issue of succession, or the sale of DFA upon the death of the current ownership group? Given, as I understand it, that neither Booth nor Sinquefeld have a majority share, their heirs cannot be expected to manage with as much authority as Abigail Johnson, for example. What do you think the possible negative outcomes are for DFA investors and advisors? In...
by Lucio
Tue Jan 25, 2011 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fama French model and all its follies
Replies: 63
Views: 9296

Re: The Fama French model and all its follies

who is buying SCG funds? the lottery effect can't explain it since we're not talking about individual issues. unsophisticated investors couldn't tell you what "small cap growth" means, and would be unlikely to hunt there, and sophisticated investors know to avoid SCG. Possibly not true. Consider the custodians for the investor share class of the small growth investor share class and the ETF. From the Vanguard Small Cap Growth Statement of Additional Information (SAI), p. B-30: As of November 30, 2010, the trustees and executive officers of the funds owned, in the aggregate, less than 1% of each class of each fund’s outstanding shares. As of November 30, 2010, the following owned of record 5% or more of each class’s outstanding sh...
by Lucio
Sat Jan 22, 2011 5:46 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Coward Lazy Portfolio for European Investor in ACC Funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 5765

Re: Coward Lazy Portfolio for European Investor in ACC Funds

If I recall correctly, the only major asset class that you lack access to in Finland is inflation indexed government bonds (Is that prohibition still part of the constitution?). You should have all the other tools that you need. Lucio Really? I did not know it. Sorry, I was mildly confused. You of course have access to other Euro-members Euro denominated inflation indexed bonds, but the Finnish government does not issue such debt, to the best of my knowledge. Finland was one of the earliest issuers of inflation linked bonds, offering them from 1945 to 1967. However, inflation indexing was banned in 1968. I cannot recall the reason why; I believe that the cost of the debt was just too high for the government to bear. For a web accessible re...
by Lucio
Sat Jan 22, 2011 10:54 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Coward Lazy Portfolio for European Investor in ACC Funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 5765

Re: Coward Lazy Portfolio for European Investor in ACC Funds

Questions 1. how can you create a Coward Portfolio with ACC funds? 2. Are there tools like [3] to evaluate International Total Stock index -part in the portfolio? ([3] won't work with ACC funds) ptete, Morningstar has a Finnish website, Tervetuloa Morningstariin . Perhaps they will do a better job than the US version for your Seligson accumulating funds. Second, Bloomberg's BSYM service indexes just about every known investment vehicle. You may be able to find funds that are otherwise obscure: BSYM Personally, I would skip the MVO and keep it simple. If I recall correctly, the only major asset class that you lack access to in Finland is inflation indexed government bonds (Is that prohibition still part of the constitution?). You should hav...
by Lucio
Wed Jan 19, 2011 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard recommends international bonds!
Replies: 72
Views: 14153

ftobin wrote: Good points. The discussion would be a lot easier if there was an ex-US bond index we could reference, or at least numerous ex-US bond funds that could approximate an index. I'm curious if GMHBX and PAIIX were such low-quality bond funds in the past as well.
The Barclays Capital Global Aggregate ex-USD Hedged USD may do the job.

Live data starts in 1999, with back-filled data to 1990. A version of this index family is used in Vanguard's Ireland domiciled Global Bond Index Fund.

Lucio
by Lucio
Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: European risk to our bond markets
Replies: 13
Views: 2174

Re: European risk to our bond markets

Valuethinker wrote:
You are right in the round. Ie that the austerity measures imposed are simply too tough, and eventually Ireland, Greece, Portugal will need to reschedule (countries do not default, they reschedule).
Usually, but not always. Without a copy of Reinhart and Rogoff at hand, I cannot give you an precise example, but I do recall certain British investors fighting to get something - anything - paid for their Confederate States bonds. To no avail.

Also, the Empire of Japan defaulted on all bonds held by enemy nations during the second world war.

And so on.

It bears repeating again and again that sovereign nations will do whatever they please, even if the consequences seem unbelievable.

Lucio
by Lucio
Sun Jan 02, 2011 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Admiral ER vs. value tilt?
Replies: 16
Views: 2394

In order for you to not be willing to pay an additional 0.2% per year to tilt, you must believe three things going forward: 1. there will be 0% additional returns from size/value dimensions above the market 2. The correlations between market, size, and value will go to 1 3. You won't have the discipline to stay with a multifactor portfolio during the inevitable periods of tracking error (which will be compounded by anti-3Factor posters here who will try to convince you the higher expected multifactor returns no longer exist) Of the 3 I mentioned, only the 3rd bears serious consideration in your allocation decision. Let's not gloss over how significant your first point is. The small stock and value stock premia have been negative for long p...
by Lucio
Wed Dec 29, 2010 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some of the less frequently mentioned excellent books
Replies: 7
Views: 1805

I thought that Peter Stanyer's Guide to Investment Strategy: How to Understand Markets, Risk, Rewards and Behaviour was quite good. Ignore the parts about hedge funds and private equity, though.

Lucio
by Lucio
Tue Dec 21, 2010 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Funds
Replies: 125
Views: 52099

Re: DFA's Financial Engines (using DFA funds)

Robert Merton, "Resident Scientist" ?!?

Just because the Sveriges Riksbank declares it does not make it so. Nor does this kind of advertising help DFA's credibility.

Lucio
by Lucio
Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market debt as an asset class?
Replies: 33
Views: 4668

Rodc wrote:
FWIW: Fidelity New Market fund (FNMIX) is a very broad emerging market bond fund that started in May 1993. I have held it for 5 or 6 years. Not a lot, but enough to maybe make a minor difference, and balanced by treasuries on the domestic side.
Interestingly enough, that fund was once a very broad US municipal bond fund, hence the symbol (Fidelity National Municipal something-or-other).

I wonder what it will stand for next? :wink:

Lucio
by Lucio
Wed Dec 15, 2010 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable annuity more expensive for a surprising reason
Replies: 11
Views: 1860

Re: Variable annuity more expensive for a surprising reason

I was just doing some number crunching on variable annuities. It's been said if you're going to have one, you should be going with Vanguard because of the "low" 0.29% wrapper expense. ddb pointed out some time ago that Monument Advisor/Jefferson National has a competitive variable annuity program. Currently, they charge $240 per annum for each variable annuity. They have a few funds available that may be useful, though most have a ~$50 transaction fee: Fund Description Fund Sub Category Exp. Ratio DFA Global Bond World Bond 0.34 DFA Short-Term Fixed Short-Term Bond 0.34 DFA US Large Value Large Value 0.33 DFA US Targeted Value Small Value 0.45 Dreyfus Stock Index Large Blend 0.29 Nationwide Bond Index Intermediate-Term Bond 0.29 ...