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Re: International stock dividend cut. Why?

Wow, there's a lot of magical thinking going on in this thread. It has been mentioned already, but I will repeat for emphasis: Total International has highly variable dividends from quarter to quarter . Typically Q1 and Q3 are smaller than Q2 and Q4. Beyond that I don't think there is much in the w...
by zotty
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock "dividend variability" Why?
Replies: 37
Views: 2932

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

If I believed in these 2% numbers, I'd take all my funds out of the market and invest in something else Therein lies my beef with projections. half of it, anyway. If projections produce outcomes that are "too low", and it's not possible to increase savings, then the outcome is a flight to...
by zotty
Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22869

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

It seems that this line of thinking assumes that assets are to be treated as if they would be worth half of current value As an old timer, i recall a post from wbern, when the *almost* bear market of 2011 hit. He said that people who rebalanced out of stocks beforehand should thank their lucky star...
by zotty
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22869

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Stock valuations are more of an art than a science. Most metrics for stock valuations have problems. For example, consider P/E. Under that metric, two firms that have the same earning should have the same "value", and the amount of money that they have in the bank is irrelevant. Obviously...
by zotty
Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22869

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I haven't read this whole thread, so i apologize is this is already stale. Isn't Bernstein's statement about future returns just a backhanded way of saying the market is in a bubble? It sure seems like it. Bonds won't return anything because they are overvalued (in terms of what you get as yield). S...
by zotty
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22869

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Thanks for the link. Unless I'm misinterpreting his article, Rick seems to be suggesting allocating more to VEU, rather than VXUS...right? This would give a more even distribution between VTI and VEU? I suspect that he chose VEU because it has a longer history than VXUS. It's hard to do long term c...
by zotty
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

According to his blog, Rick envisions it working like this: The global media hyped around a sovereign debt default or two will present long-term investors an opportunity to re-align their portfolio allocation to something more global-like and less US-like. But of course mere media hype presents no ...
by zotty
Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I can not say I agree but to each their own. Come on man. the idea of waiting for an event goes against the basic tenets of bogleheadedness: the crystal ball is cloudy. That's the only thing that bothered me about the article, but it became "the thesis" by the time it's over. It's looking...
by zotty
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

i'm not dishing too much on rick. He saved me a lot of money with his explanation about "no need for commodities". I owe him one. I was seriously considering allocating to it. But i will stand by my opinion, that this isn't his greatest work. I like international. a lot. i just don't belie...
by zotty
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

it's a crowded party after euro qe was announced.
by zotty
Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

You calculate the current odds based on all information, including information about shoes that might fall. Either the current odds are in favor of the US now, or they are not in favor of the US now. You act on current odds now , not in the future. +1, That was precisely the point i was *trying* to...
by zotty
Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

malabargold wrote:...inevitable ...


depends on your time horizon. but i agree with your point. i did it already and am currently near 50-50. hopefully my time horizon is long enough to capture the inevitable.
by zotty
Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

The more people who hate this idea, the better I like it. :D Rick Ferri I'm with you on that. But I don't think people hate the idea as much as they are wondering why it is a good idea to "go global" now but it wasn't before? And what has changed so dramatically that compellingly takes it...
by zotty
Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

The more people who hate this idea, the better I like it. :D Rick Ferri You make an excellent case for international. I completely agree. Waiting for negative events to unfold is almost the opposite of waiting for the sky to clear. Maybe it's cloudy now, maybe it will clear up, etc. Granted, your s...
by zotty
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Ketogenic Diet anyone?

Like investing, eating habits are mostly conquering behaviors. a bogleheaded plan would focus first on the behavioral aspects. If they aren't tamed, nothing will work. Low carb doesn't work because it's too hard. On paper, I think it's proven to be the most effective way to lose weight. In practice,...
by zotty
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ketogenic Diet anyone?
Replies: 22
Views: 1210

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Has anyone read any additional posts or thoughts from Rick in terms of his proposed changes. Rick has not been around the forum as much recently. I admire Rick and appreciate his work, but this wasn't his best idea. It's unlikely he's going to be able to implement it, as planned. at least he didn't...
by zotty
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Deflation would not be good. Deflation in oil is like a tax cut for most americans. Yes, it will cause local busts. If we learned anything, maybe the banks can actually survive a bust, this time. I honestly think when US economists talk nervously abut deflation, they are talking about housing. Food...
by zotty
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1225
Views: 229741

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

letsgobobby wrote:
zotty wrote:...

Recessions are highly correlated with 2 successive quarters of negative gdp growth.

...

I thought a recession was *defined* as a 2 successive quarters of negative gdp growth.


causation is the most dependable form of correlation. :)
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1225
Views: 229741

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

JLJL wrote:All of these details are getting confusing. Are stocks going to go way down, or not?


"U.S. stocks in freefall"

Maybe.
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1225
Views: 229741

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

backpacker, Two differences: 1) S&P 500 performance over the last 20 years has been over the threshold of what I would consider decent. This is not the case for the Ex-US index. You needed an active fund to get a decent return out of foreign. 2) I haven't done a scientific study of this, but th...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

bonds are at new historic lows, notably including the 30 year. oil is down 60%. commodities are down, some at multi-year lows. Does this stuff happen without a deflationary recession soon to follow? the oil shock of the 80s didn't cause a deflationary recession. Well, maybe, I think the 91 recessio...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1225
Views: 229741

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I couldn't stomach a large/core holding with only 59 companies. That's too concentrated for my risk tolerance.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... ture=en-US
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

my bad. I pulled them from an earlier ticker. They do hold some us assets, but i think it's a fair comparison. Those are great funds, but one thing about these long term manager performance runs, they can die badly. I'm not saying they will!!! I don't make predictions. But manager risk is a real thi...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Right, but my point is that the belief that you describe here goes against the data in foreign investing, so I'm not sure what it is based on since the past doesn't support it, and the future is unknown. That doesn't mean that it will be a bad approach going forward, just that I don't see the basis...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Yeah, Yeah. Why would anyone believe that disclaimer on the fund's web page that says past performance does not guarantee future performance? You don't know the future performance of the actively-managed foreign mutual funds, or of VXUS/VGTSX (Ex-US index), so you can't differentiate based on that....
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas

i diy my taxes. I use H&R Block software because I have schedule C income and also have a "trust/1041". Turbo tax upcharged me for schedule C and then i had to buy their separate business software. It was 200 bucks. 70ish for H&R Block. I will say their 1041 program / business, is ...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas
Replies: 52
Views: 7283

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

We won't know for sure till end of day, but at the moment it looks like the breakdown in prices has now occurred. Intra-day prices suggest a double bottom breakdown with a downside target of 1910. First resistance level at 1973 or so, blowing through that would be a strong confirmation of the new t...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1225
Views: 229741

Re: Moving a regular taxable joint account to our Living Tru

You are simply changing the title on the account. There shouldn't be a tax events. Really? our trust is a complex/irrevocable one, but certainly wasn't that way for us. We created a trust account at vanguard, who wanted to review our trust documents first. We then moved money. when we exceed the gi...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving a regular taxable joint account to our Living Trust
Replies: 6
Views: 264

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I'm not visual guy, but I'd start with the "dud" issue. international stocks have been pretty dud'ish of late. no question. it's also true that international growth stocks have faired somewhat better, and thus active managers targeting international growth stocks have outperformed the inde...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

its history over the 19 years or so since its inception doesn't give me a good feeling. It just has a pretty long track record of being a pretty lousy investment. This is almost precisely the feature which has compelled me to buy more. My international % has been increasing incrementally since 2011...
by zotty
Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Everytime i talk myself into international bonds, i talk myself out of them. I've got a healthy dose of currency risk in my portfolio with stocks. Hedged? I guess. That just seems expensive to me (buying derivatives to balance currency can't be completely free). maybe if there were a large differenc...
by zotty
Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

50/50 is the clear winner, but only after a financial crisis, which only effects international stocks.

Good news is that we're about to have one, so be ready, but don't tell anyone.

I'll stop now.
by zotty
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

But in the meantime, there will be plenty of opinions such as this one about Grandma Europe from Arthur Brooks that was published in the NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/07/opinion/an-aging-europes-decline.html This seems like noise to me. I thought that corporate profits and GDP growth are ...
by zotty
Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

If we are sure there is a shoe left to drop, we should be accumulating cash in preparation for the dropping shoe. Some times the market does not correctly price the cost of a dropping shoe, some times it does. There is nothing to say that said shoe will drop or that the shoe dropping will result in ...
by zotty
Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37290

Re: Home Mortgage payoff

Your home situation is different than mine, but i will share my experience. I paid off our home in 2010. Sold the home a few weeks ago. New home, new mortgage. I won't pay it all off again. The money we "saved" with no monthly mortgage went into lifestyle. I am a prudent fellow, and my wif...
by zotty
Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Mortgage payoff
Replies: 22
Views: 2669

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

semi-annual excursion into the 37s. At least we aren't bombarded with ads about "the global growth engine- emerging markets" anymore. FWIW, i still buy when it reaches the 37s. Not that it's been an idea worth writing home about. 5 years, and counting, return-free risk. On the plus side, t...
by zotty
Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18940

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

Russia's large cap ETF RSX dropped 11.84% yesterday. :shock: One of its top holdings Gazprom now has a PE <2. Fun to look at its top 25 holdings on Morningstar..... And curiously the micex is neutral on the year. the ENTIRE move in RSX is currency related. Looks like another down day for VWO. upper...
by zotty
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 37
Views: 3680

Re: Oil's future...

people forget how badly oil can bust and for how long. T Boone is just being an optimist. He knows what can happen. I have nothing to say about the reasons, pro & con, i'm just saying oil can really really bust and it can totally wreck local economies and non-diversified fortunes. The plus side ...
by zotty
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil's future...
Replies: 56
Views: 6576

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

I am a rule of 37s accumulator of VWO. Not big money, but when it makes it's semi-annual dip into 37, i do some accumulation. The rule of 37s has continued to "work" for several years and may continue to "work" for several more, as VWO goes up and then gravity pulls it back to 37...
by zotty
Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 37
Views: 3680

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

market timers can rejoice this one. Wow. Up 4% in a few days!?

grok, however many you bought or didn't buy, I can promise you that it is me that should have bought more! I did it to see how it worked. didn't realize it was a get rich quick scheme. :)
by zotty
Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9730

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

grok87 wrote:

as predicted 1.50% (I had only specified 3 sig. figs).
Yes! Yes! Yes!


Nicely played!
by zotty
Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9730

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

i hope that is right,but...isn't that just the high yield of the competitive bidding?
by zotty
Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9730

Re: Advice for computer science student

I would find an experienced recruiter in your area and ask them what is the most marketable programming language, or languages, and then perhaps device, or server side. Don't trust professors, or old hats, like me, for technology specific direction. A recruiter is the best source of the trend. Not t...
by zotty
Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for computer science student
Replies: 33
Views: 2615

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

grok87 wrote:
zotty wrote:it says the indicative yield is 1.411, how accurate is that?

see my post above


grok, thanks for answering this question and the one from yesterday. I appreciate it.
by zotty
Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9730

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

it says the indicative yield is 1.411, how accurate is that?
by zotty
Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9730

Re: the sky is about to fall!

zerohedge and other recession porn sites have been overlaying 1929 charts for a long time. Since at least 2010. European deflationary disaster. Now it's china deflationary disaster. Make no mistake, at some point, they will be right. But that's just the way broken clocks work. It's really not good t...
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [MarketWatch: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction]
Replies: 43
Views: 4746

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

I have a more mundane question.

Do you typically get a slightly better interest rate buying at auction from vanguard, or buying secondary? I bought 10s and 5s a few weeks ago (small amounts), and noticed i ended up fractionally below the current yield curve.
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9730

best current place for short term reserves?

My buddy sold his primary residence (the area got hot) and made some money that he may need within less than a year. It's about 50K.

It may take a while to find the next house, and earning something nominal is better, at least, than just sitting in checking.

Any thoughts?

Thanks!
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: best current place for short term reserves?
Replies: 4
Views: 550
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