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Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

market timers can rejoice this one. Wow. Up 4% in a few days!?

grok, however many you bought or didn't buy, I can promise you that it is me that should have bought more! I did it to see how it worked. didn't realize it was a get rich quick scheme. :)
by zotty
Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 128
Views: 7591

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

grok87 wrote:

as predicted 1.50% (I had only specified 3 sig. figs).
Yes! Yes! Yes!


Nicely played!
by zotty
Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 128
Views: 7591

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

i hope that is right,but...isn't that just the high yield of the competitive bidding?
by zotty
Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 128
Views: 7591

Re: Advice for computer science student

I would find an experienced recruiter in your area and ask them what is the most marketable programming language, or languages, and then perhaps device, or server side. Don't trust professors, or old hats, like me, for technology specific direction. A recruiter is the best source of the trend. Not t...
by zotty
Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for computer science student
Replies: 33
Views: 2204

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

grok87 wrote:
zotty wrote:it says the indicative yield is 1.411, how accurate is that?

see my post above


grok, thanks for answering this question and the one from yesterday. I appreciate it.
by zotty
Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 128
Views: 7591

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

it says the indicative yield is 1.411, how accurate is that?
by zotty
Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 128
Views: 7591

Re: the sky is about to fall!

zerohedge and other recession porn sites have been overlaying 1929 charts for a long time. Since at least 2010. European deflationary disaster. Now it's china deflationary disaster. Make no mistake, at some point, they will be right. But that's just the way broken clocks work. It's really not good t...
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [MarketWatch: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction]
Replies: 43
Views: 4431

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

I have a more mundane question.

Do you typically get a slightly better interest rate buying at auction from vanguard, or buying secondary? I bought 10s and 5s a few weeks ago (small amounts), and noticed i ended up fractionally below the current yield curve.
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 128
Views: 7591

best current place for short term reserves?

My buddy sold his primary residence (the area got hot) and made some money that he may need within less than a year. It's about 50K.

It may take a while to find the next house, and earning something nominal is better, at least, than just sitting in checking.

Any thoughts?

Thanks!
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: best current place for short term reserves?
Replies: 4
Views: 532

Re: Going all into Emerging Markets

Rules of 37s and 43. When Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) goes below 37, it's time to buy. When Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF goes above 43, it's time to sell. Rinse, lather, repeat. This strategy will generate 20% gains until it stops working, then it will generate a huge loss, or run for a muc...
by zotty
Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going all into Emerging Markets
Replies: 63
Views: 5825

Re: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now

Last year I retired ... And you've decided to move your allocation to 80/20 stocks and bonds? I don't mean this to sound snarky, but are you really just wanting to go back to work? I know a lot of people who had to keep working after 2000, and after 2008. Many are just now recovering. A few won't e...
by zotty
Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now
Replies: 12
Views: 1442

Re: Is 60/40 really the gold standard?

I am 46 and I like 60/40. I have saved a lot (but not *enough* to call it a day). 60/40 is my sleep and night, no envy portfolio. I like it.
by zotty
Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 really the gold standard?
Replies: 35
Views: 5214

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

Non bogleheaded: I mess around with my portfolio more than i should. I don't like EM (too much china) but i did buy EM stocks last week. If you think the panic is overdone, then hang tight or buy more. I don't know, but i do bottom fish when EM hits a certain level. It could crash through it, but I ...
by zotty
Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

I think it depends on the role of bonds in your portfolio? I'm a "bonds are for safety" person. In times of crisis, it's hard to beat TBM, well, risk adjusted. 30 year bonds the best, but too much interest rate risk along the way. if bonds are a ballast, like me, it's hard to beat a treasu...
by zotty
Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Well, by earnings valuation, it's cheaper than the rest of the world. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0964&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 Bottom fishing is risky business, maybe this is 2009 type of event for EM and it is destined to cut back to 2009 levels. Maybe it's not. We are n...
by zotty
Mon Feb 03, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 125
Views: 13165

Re: WHat to do with current market conditions

im about 75% stocks now and 20% bonds- think selling off some investments now and holding them in cash is wise? This is a VERY common mistake. almost everyone does it, at one time or anything. It's usually a money loser. The odds are against it working out in your favor. The problem with this strat...
by zotty
Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WHat to do with current market conditions
Replies: 21
Views: 1042

Re: I go senile, day trade on margin, wash sale, and...

Fat finger!

I bought a 4K in ten year notes when they touched 3, at the start of the year. Never bought an individual bond before.

I dutifully placed an order for 4 million dollars in 10 year treasuries. Thankfully, vanguard balked, "call their help desk"... whew.
by zotty
Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I go senile, day trade on margin, wash sale, and...
Replies: 24
Views: 2647

Re: Advisor Opposes TIPS Ladder Strategy

The issue that I have with this advisor is that clearly the advisor is mixing in his personal ideology and his personal investment tastes with his recommendations. I don't know anything about real advisors in the real world, but ideally, a "professional" in any field would not do this, or...
by zotty
Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor Cautions Against TIPS Ladder Strategy
Replies: 85
Views: 5302

Re: Opening a P.O. Box for a soon-to-be created LLC

I just used my home address (in 2002) why complicate it? avoiding junk mail is futile anyway.
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Opening a P.O. Box for a soon-to-be created LLC
Replies: 6
Views: 449

Re: Advisor Opposes TIPS Ladder Strategy

Zvi's approach to saving as always appealed to me. I don't have enough money yet. I think the absolute most important thing is that you are sure it will be enough. His comment about shadowstats is bunk, but i think it's true that your personal rate of inflation may be more or less than CPI and with ...
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor Cautions Against TIPS Ladder Strategy
Replies: 85
Views: 5302

Re: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?

get whatever version supports Schedule C

I've been using HR Block, not that i recommend it, it just includes 1041 preparation too, which i need for a trust. I'll do a lot of things to save a 100 bucks.
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?
Replies: 33
Views: 2047

Re: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?

I have a single member llc. It's a schedule C. I find it perfectly simple, but i've been doing it a while. I dump a sheet of profit and loss from quickbooks, make an excel spreadsheet which maps qb lines into schedule c lines, and then type in the values. It's really easy. I am married and filing jo...
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?
Replies: 33
Views: 2047

Re: Balancing portfolios: stocks/bonds, barbell, protective

But if you look at options on SPY, the price of a protective put for a year at 100, which is above the 2008 crash level, is about 0.5% of SPY's value... so roughly, for 0.5% per year, you'd be able to insulate the portfolio against major drops like that. A portfolio put has a nice ring to it, but t...
by zotty
Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balancing portfolios: stocks/bonds, barbell, protective puts
Replies: 7
Views: 533

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

lazyday wrote:Sticking with VWO for now.


I wish they hadn't removed Korea. Then it would be less a "china fund". I guess they wanted a china fund, in hindsight, not a good move.
by zotty
Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 1843

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

Since I've been using this forum, all I've read is that you need "International" and "Emerging Markets" allocations to be diversified. After the past 4 years, I think that, that is exactly what you get: Diversification as in you won't see any return. January 2011 to January 2014...
by zotty
Fri Jan 24, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 1843

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

agreed. VWO is the better buy. Country allocation is what gets me from doing any kind of tilting. I'm sorry, that's just risky to me. Granted, I am biased. They may thread the needle beautifully. I read somewhere that financial crises invariably happen after financial liberalization. China has liber...
by zotty
Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 1843

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

EM is now 35% china. a 50/50 split would be 17.5% in china. I think that is too much but i have my biases. China is a mess and it shows in their stock prices. Either they are going to successfully tighten lending standards by jawboning, or it will happen via crisis. Either way, they must slow down. ...
by zotty
Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 1843

Re: El-Erian out at Pimco - WSJ

I like him. He is fun to listen to, but my gosh, the guy loves to make predictions and for those of us counting, it makes him look stupid. He brilliantly describes *the* scenario that will never happen. He's never even close. Rinse lather repeat.

He's not a broken clock, he isn't right twice a day.
by zotty
Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian out at Pimco - WSJ
Replies: 28
Views: 3216

Re: POLL: Investing vs. pay down mortgage feelings

We paid off the house in 2010 with cash flow from my side business. It would have been new savings, so i lost some opportunity cost. It was always a small mortage. 135K when we got it in 1998. It didn't work out money wise because we aren't saving the difference... It's not worth fighting about. Lif...
by zotty
Sun Jan 19, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: POLL: Investing vs. pay down mortgage feelings
Replies: 79
Views: 3834

Re: Stop Loss Limit Order & Dollar Cost Avg Out of Market?

I understand it. It's two sides of fear. I have precisely the same fears. I am fearful of a major sell off. I am fearful of missing future stock gains by sitting in bonds. Some people are fearful of bond losses too. So we go to lengths to create strategies that provide some intermediate benefit, low...
by zotty
Fri Jan 10, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stop Loss Limit Order & Dollar Cost Avg Out of Market?
Replies: 19
Views: 1266

Re: Stop Loss Limit Order & Dollar Cost Avg Out of Market?

The sound way to reduce your risk in a portfolio is with bonds or cash, to a proportion such that you can stay invested at all time without having to move at precisely the right time or suffer unbearable losses. He's right. First, you need a buy strategy. If the market suffers a 30% decline but you...
by zotty
Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stop Loss Limit Order & Dollar Cost Avg Out of Market?
Replies: 19
Views: 1266

Re: Stop Loss Limit Order & Dollar Cost Avg Out of Market?

I think you'd be better off doing two things: a) I'd just roll with QQQ rather than picking sectors. QQQ mostly underperforms on the way down and outperforms on the way up. b) Use a mental stop. Actual stop orders, placed with your broker are subject to "Flash Crash" risk. a 100 millisecon...
by zotty
Thu Jan 09, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stop Loss Limit Order & Dollar Cost Avg Out of Market?
Replies: 19
Views: 1266

Re: anyone have historical yield info on domestic reits?

It appears to be a NAV of the FTSE NAREIT. It does not say whether it's adjusted for inflation or not. Definitely not dividend reinvestment Source Data http://www.reit.com/DataAndResearch/IndexData/FNUS-Historical-Data/Monthly-Index-Data.aspx In the spreadsheet, both "All REITs" and "...
by zotty
Thu Jan 09, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anyone have historical yield info on domestic reits?
Replies: 6
Views: 218

Re: anyone have historical yield info on domestic reits?

The Pros stopped thinking past 3 month returns a long time ago. I don't think there are any buy and hold pros anymore. Serena Williams is busy working on investment ideas that make money within 30 milliseconds to 3-6 months. Long term thinkers are not competing against them. Unfortunately, i can't f...
by zotty
Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anyone have historical yield info on domestic reits?
Replies: 6
Views: 218

anyone have historical yield info on domestic reits?

REITs aren't bonds, i get it. Swing in the breeze just like any other equity, sometimes much worse, or much better. It appears REITS are very sensitive to changes in interest rates. Just like dividend stocks. This makes sense to me. The trailing yield on VNQ (Vanguard domestic REIT ETF) is 4.3. I wo...
by zotty
Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anyone have historical yield info on domestic reits?
Replies: 6
Views: 218

Re: Jack Bogle: We Need to Fix the Bond Index

I actually did this last year. After hearing it multiple times from Mr Bogle. I switched 30% of tbm holding to investment grade fund. It's beaten up pretty badly. It does generate more coupon, but what makes me nervous is the action during 2008. TBM held steady. Investment Grade got clocked. I'm goi...
by zotty
Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: We Need to Fix the Bond Index
Replies: 77
Views: 7154

Re: Is the PE of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 6.41

it's wrong. Vanguard has it listed. I use morningstar because that allows me to make comparisons. Forward P/E, trailing P/E. There are many P/Es but yahoo's is just plain wrong. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VTI&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA Forward P/E 17....
by zotty
Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the PE of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 6.41
Replies: 1
Views: 284

Re: Surprises in 2014

Bonds will outperform stocks. I'm pretty sure at least one of these predictions will be wrong. :) I'm happy for retirees and even happy for myself. It's been a great run. Even rebalanced for once. But I miss the good ole days of buying stock with 401K contributions and excess savings. It seems like...
by zotty
Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprises in 2014
Replies: 51
Views: 3551

Re: Surprises in 2014

Bonds will outperform stocks.
by zotty
Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprises in 2014
Replies: 51
Views: 3551

Re: RBD in emerging markets?

Bwah-ha-ha-ha! My plan to turn this forum into a total market timing forum is coming along nicely. Maybe 2014 will be the year of total domination! LOL. I know. Notice i didn't advise people to buy it. Why? because I use the "rule of 37s" for Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO). When it g...
by zotty
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in emerging markets?
Replies: 18
Views: 1455

RBD in emerging markets?

Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF down 3.5%
by zotty
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in emerging markets?
Replies: 18
Views: 1455

Re: The inevitability of rising inflation--is it so?

When banks lend money in our fractional reserve system, they are printing money. The federal reserve printing money is not that different. I'm not so sure that we aren't seeing inflation. Aren't asset bubbles a form of inflation? What about SF rent prices? The transmission of asset inflation into ho...
by zotty
Tue Dec 31, 2013 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inevitability of rising inflation--is it so?
Replies: 130
Views: 7129

Re: How to invest 1M back into the market

I don't know. If your income exceeds your lifestyle to a huge degree, you don't really need to take risk. I would start a CD ladder (or bond ladder) and call it a day. This is especially true since your compensation is stock based. You are, and have been, in the market taking a big risk already. Yea...
by zotty
Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest 1M back into the market
Replies: 6
Views: 1048

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

It seems to swing back to 37. I am always a buyer at 37. Eventually it won't swing back to 37 and i won't be able to buy at 37.

10% above 37 might be a good price, depending on what happens, but 37 is a better deal if it gets there.

In short, the future of VWO is certainly uncertain. :)
by zotty
Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 125
Views: 13165

Re: Twitter

The S&P is down 1.0%, the Nasdaq 1.5%. Everyone is selling stuff so they can buy twitter. It's a sad day for the country. I wonder...15 billion dollars of liquidity pulled from the market. I don't know if it's true or not, but i seriously about it. The other stocks are chugging along, with a no...
by zotty
Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Twitter IPO?
Replies: 60
Views: 2479

Re: Dividend Paying Stock

Intel

I don't particularly like dividend stocks. I always end up buying some intel when it dips below 20, it's not there right now, but valuation is still pretty favorable. If INTC can't grow anymore, they can always start buying back stock to make the EPS move.
by zotty
Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Paying Stock
Replies: 28
Views: 2720

Re: Investors Business Daily...worthwhile?

A couple of years ago they ran a commercial claiming the publication's TA predicted the bear market of 07-09 and issued a "sell' signal. Can anyone verify this? I'd also be curious as to how often their "sell" signals turn out to be false.(i.e. the market rises instead) Having been I...
by zotty
Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investors Business Daily...worthwhile?
Replies: 18
Views: 983
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