Search found 742 matches

by zotty
Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 84
Views: 8815

Re: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?

There is not enough fear yet. All you have so far is a garden variety correction, this is baby steps stuff. Wait till you see 30% down, then 40.. then I just may get greedy. I agree. Look, i am not as iron willed as many on this board. I haven't ever lost sleep over my investments, but i have to ad...
by zotty
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?
Replies: 37
Views: 2187

Re: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?

Yeah, it was bogged down. I managed to accidentally execute 2 buy trades because i thought the first was dead. I had an appointment and came back, to my surprise, both had filled, and at absolute bottom of the day range. beautiful, but still a lesson, use caution when the market has a fever. orders ...
by zotty
Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 84
Views: 8815

Re: How are you being greedy when others are fearful?

Great post above. A 5% blip is not anything remotely resembling fear. IF the market is down 25%, then we can start talking about fear. IF it's down 50%, we can talk about blood in the streets, etc. I own individual energy equity, some of them are down close to that 50% figure you speak of about - I...
by zotty
Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The future of VWO
Replies: 14
Views: 1613

Re: The future of VWO

He says 5-20% of your equity should be invested directly in China. I'm at about 5-10% based on his advice. How do you invest directly in China? I thought that was limited to Chinese natives. china opened up the mainland A-shares market, sort of. I DONT recommend this fund, nor would i ever consider...
by zotty
Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pascal's Wager and prudent investment decisions
Replies: 29
Views: 3054

Re: Pascal's Wager and prudent investment decisions

I totally agree. pascal's wager changed my thought process in a fundamental way. I find myself using it, far far removed from financial decisions. odds are all well and good, but consequences matter more.
by zotty
Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 7185

Re: Piling into emerging markets

I remember throwing fresh money into domestic stocks in july 2008 and cheering myself for buying-low. In hindsight, and over years, not bad, but certainly not as optimal as my initial glee. I've been an incremental buyer of emerging markets for a week. downdrafts usually don't turn into full blown c...
by zotty
Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWO - Emerging Markets
Replies: 27
Views: 2665

Re: VWO - Emerging Markets

it might make it to 34 before the weeks over.

donno about the op, but basically I *can* buy below 38, so i could buy now if i had any fresh nickels. the crash is keeping it under 5% of portfolio.

...emptying the change jar... j/k
by zotty
Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWO - Emerging Markets
Replies: 27
Views: 2665

Re: VWO - Emerging Markets

Angst wrote:Ooops, oh my!
So now, when is it that I start buying again?
This is where an IPS comes in handy.


Your right man. I know. It could easily drop to the crisis lows. it's already at summer 2009 levels. I know doing tactical stuff is a low odds game.
by zotty
Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWO - Emerging Markets
Replies: 27
Views: 2665

Re: VWO - Emerging Markets

*Let's assume you buy VWO at 35, after a RBD. It goes up roughly 3% in a week, to 36. Granted, if you bought a couple of thousand shares at 35, you'd have a nice trade. I, for one, don't have that kind of money to throw around in my trading account. I haven't been doing this, but i've watched it sw...
by zotty
Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWO - Emerging Markets
Replies: 27
Views: 2665

Re: VWO - Emerging Markets

rule of 37s. it's the easiest route to accumulating dead money in emerging markets. I've been applying it for several years, accumulating VWO when it reaches 37. It still works. I've now got 5% of my portfolio in VWO. The level of pessimism is higher on this trip down. There is nothing but gloom and...
by zotty
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri & Foreign Bond Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1508

Re: Rick Ferri & Foreign Bond Funds

Notice, of course, that the question of whether you want foreign currency exposure is controversial, to say the least. A foreign bond fund with foreign currency exposure is a hybrid investment in FOREX and bonds, and the FOREX nature probably predominates. If you think of bonds in the traditional p...
by zotty
Tue Jul 14, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Hi zotty, I do not follow your post in terms of "Vanguard is tired of being front run". Would you be willing to elaborate? Thanks! The amount of money in index funds can move the price of an individual security that is newly listed in the index. With transparent, pre-published indices, qu...
by zotty
Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I will speculate out the wazoo here: I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an ag...
by zotty
Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Being passive doesn't mean doing nothing. The world changes over time and your personal circumstances change as well. Being passive means making small adjustments as these changes become apparent. This is a very small shift in the big scheme of things. Rick Ferri Yep. your sig line says it all and ...
by zotty
Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Rick is a valuable contributor to bogleheads with very interesting insights. There is no need for all that. I think it's fair to question the content of his work, but i don't see any value or usefulness in generalized digs at him, especially since he is patient with all of us particular folk, some o...
by zotty
Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China stocks crash: right out of Kindleberger's playbook
Replies: 63
Views: 6536

Re: China stocks crash: right out of Kindleberger's playbook

It's more than emotional, in terms of VWO. Vanguard announced A-Shares inclusion on June 2, 2015 https://pressroom.vanguard.com/content/press_release/Four_Vanguard_Funds_to_Broaden_Diversification_6.2.15.html I don't think it's materially effecting VWO, the price movements have been the same as EEM,...
by zotty
Wed Jul 08, 2015 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China stocks crash: right out of Kindleberger's playbook
Replies: 63
Views: 6536

Re: China stocks crash: right out of Kindleberger's playbook

So has this firewall broken down? i don't know how far they got with this, but theoretically yes. I still agree it's the right move, but vanguard seems to have poor timing with things like this. They were all hot & heavy about a muni bond ETF, then the muni market went into dump mode. Lately, i...
by zotty
Wed May 27, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10631

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

I agree. the risk with stocks is that they can go down and stay down longer than my time horizon. It's happened before. it will happen again. In Warren Buffett speak, Bonds are our reserve money. Everyone needs a reserve. yes, we'd like to earn a "return" on our safe money, and sometimes w...
by zotty
Fri May 01, 2015 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

The global equity market is 50% US and 50% international. I've been 30% international for 15 years and moving to 40% international for the next 15 years or more. Market timing you claim ? I don't call it that. Rick Ferri I don't think anybody has any objection to that. People object to the final pa...
by zotty
Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Although I don't know if Rick is using Value Averaging, it sounds like something similar. Perhaps he is less formal about it. But he intends to invest, over a period of time to increase his foreign allocation. If the foreign market drops he will increase his investments to take advantage. That is n...
by zotty
Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

But, how many of them advocate waiting for a dip? I have absolutely no problem with the analysis and the decision to change allocations, but decisions are best when they are based on today's prices, not anticipated prices. In his defense, Rick did articulate a new plan if international doesn't outg...
by zotty
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

First quarter (3/31/2015) results are in: 1.79% VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund (US equities) 4.09% VTIAX Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index fund (International equities) And YTD (4/2/2015): 1.78% VTSAX 5.70% VTIAX shocking that sometimes the market doesn't bend in ways we...
by zotty
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock "dividend variability" Why?
Replies: 49
Views: 4806

Re: International stock dividend cut. Why?

Wow, there's a lot of magical thinking going on in this thread. It has been mentioned already, but I will repeat for emphasis: Total International has highly variable dividends from quarter to quarter . Typically Q1 and Q3 are smaller than Q2 and Q4. Beyond that I don't think there is much in the w...
by zotty
Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26308

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

If I believed in these 2% numbers, I'd take all my funds out of the market and invest in something else Therein lies my beef with projections. half of it, anyway. If projections produce outcomes that are "too low", and it's not possible to increase savings, then the outcome is a flight to...
by zotty
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26308

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

It seems that this line of thinking assumes that assets are to be treated as if they would be worth half of current value As an old timer, i recall a post from wbern, when the *almost* bear market of 2011 hit. He said that people who rebalanced out of stocks beforehand should thank their lucky star...
by zotty
Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26308

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Stock valuations are more of an art than a science. Most metrics for stock valuations have problems. For example, consider P/E. Under that metric, two firms that have the same earning should have the same "value", and the amount of money that they have in the bank is irrelevant. Obviously...
by zotty
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26308

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I haven't read this whole thread, so i apologize is this is already stale. Isn't Bernstein's statement about future returns just a backhanded way of saying the market is in a bubble? It sure seems like it. Bonds won't return anything because they are overvalued (in terms of what you get as yield). S...
by zotty
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Thanks for the link. Unless I'm misinterpreting his article, Rick seems to be suggesting allocating more to VEU, rather than VXUS...right? This would give a more even distribution between VTI and VEU? I suspect that he chose VEU because it has a longer history than VXUS. It's hard to do long term c...
by zotty
Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

According to his blog, Rick envisions it working like this: The global media hyped around a sovereign debt default or two will present long-term investors an opportunity to re-align their portfolio allocation to something more global-like and less US-like. But of course mere media hype presents no ...
by zotty
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I can not say I agree but to each their own. Come on man. the idea of waiting for an event goes against the basic tenets of bogleheadedness: the crystal ball is cloudy. That's the only thing that bothered me about the article, but it became "the thesis" by the time it's over. It's looking...
by zotty
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

i'm not dishing too much on rick. He saved me a lot of money with his explanation about "no need for commodities". I owe him one. I was seriously considering allocating to it. But i will stand by my opinion, that this isn't his greatest work. I like international. a lot. i just don't belie...
by zotty
Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

it's a crowded party after euro qe was announced.
by zotty
Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

You calculate the current odds based on all information, including information about shoes that might fall. Either the current odds are in favor of the US now, or they are not in favor of the US now. You act on current odds now , not in the future. +1, That was precisely the point i was *trying* to...
by zotty
Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

malabargold wrote:...inevitable ...


depends on your time horizon. but i agree with your point. i did it already and am currently near 50-50. hopefully my time horizon is long enough to capture the inevitable.
by zotty
Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

The more people who hate this idea, the better I like it. :D Rick Ferri I'm with you on that. But I don't think people hate the idea as much as they are wondering why it is a good idea to "go global" now but it wasn't before? And what has changed so dramatically that compellingly takes it...
by zotty
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

The more people who hate this idea, the better I like it. :D Rick Ferri You make an excellent case for international. I completely agree. Waiting for negative events to unfold is almost the opposite of waiting for the sky to clear. Maybe it's cloudy now, maybe it will clear up, etc. Granted, your s...
by zotty
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ketogenic Diet anyone?
Replies: 22
Views: 1420

Re: Ketogenic Diet anyone?

Like investing, eating habits are mostly conquering behaviors. a bogleheaded plan would focus first on the behavioral aspects. If they aren't tamed, nothing will work. Low carb doesn't work because it's too hard. On paper, I think it's proven to be the most effective way to lose weight. In practice,...
by zotty
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Has anyone read any additional posts or thoughts from Rick in terms of his proposed changes. Rick has not been around the forum as much recently. I admire Rick and appreciate his work, but this wasn't his best idea. It's unlikely he's going to be able to implement it, as planned. at least he didn't...
by zotty
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1934
Views: 340873

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Deflation would not be good. Deflation in oil is like a tax cut for most americans. Yes, it will cause local busts. If we learned anything, maybe the banks can actually survive a bust, this time. I honestly think when US economists talk nervously abut deflation, they are talking about housing. Food...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1934
Views: 340873

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

letsgobobby wrote:
zotty wrote:...

Recessions are highly correlated with 2 successive quarters of negative gdp growth.

...

I thought a recession was *defined* as a 2 successive quarters of negative gdp growth.


causation is the most dependable form of correlation. :)
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1934
Views: 340873

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

JLJL wrote:All of these details are getting confusing. Are stocks going to go way down, or not?


"U.S. stocks in freefall"

Maybe.
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

backpacker, Two differences: 1) S&P 500 performance over the last 20 years has been over the threshold of what I would consider decent. This is not the case for the Ex-US index. You needed an active fund to get a decent return out of foreign. 2) I haven't done a scientific study of this, but th...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1934
Views: 340873

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

bonds are at new historic lows, notably including the 30 year. oil is down 60%. commodities are down, some at multi-year lows. Does this stuff happen without a deflationary recession soon to follow? the oil shock of the 80s didn't cause a deflationary recession. Well, maybe, I think the 91 recessio...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I couldn't stomach a large/core holding with only 59 companies. That's too concentrated for my risk tolerance.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... ture=en-US
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

my bad. I pulled them from an earlier ticker. They do hold some us assets, but i think it's a fair comparison. Those are great funds, but one thing about these long term manager performance runs, they can die badly. I'm not saying they will!!! I don't make predictions. But manager risk is a real thi...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Right, but my point is that the belief that you describe here goes against the data in foreign investing, so I'm not sure what it is based on since the past doesn't support it, and the future is unknown. That doesn't mean that it will be a bad approach going forward, just that I don't see the basis...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 70282

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Yeah, Yeah. Why would anyone believe that disclaimer on the fund's web page that says past performance does not guarantee future performance? You don't know the future performance of the actively-managed foreign mutual funds, or of VXUS/VGTSX (Ex-US index), so you can't differentiate based on that....
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas
Replies: 52
Views: 7575

Re: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas

i diy my taxes. I use H&R Block software because I have schedule C income and also have a "trust/1041". Turbo tax upcharged me for schedule C and then i had to buy their separate business software. It was 200 bucks. 70ish for H&R Block. I will say their 1041 program / business, is ...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1934
Views: 340873

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

We won't know for sure till end of day, but at the moment it looks like the breakdown in prices has now occurred. Intra-day prices suggest a double bottom breakdown with a downside target of 1910. First resistance level at 1973 or so, blowing through that would be a strong confirmation of the new t...

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