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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Deflation would not be good. Deflation in oil is like a tax cut for most americans. Yes, it will cause local busts. If we learned anything, maybe the banks can actually survive a bust, this time. I honestly think when US economists talk nervously abut deflation, they are talking about housing. Food...
by zotty
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221109

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

letsgobobby wrote:
zotty wrote:...

Recessions are highly correlated with 2 successive quarters of negative gdp growth.

...

I thought a recession was *defined* as a 2 successive quarters of negative gdp growth.


causation is the most dependable form of correlation. :)
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221109

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

JLJL wrote:All of these details are getting confusing. Are stocks going to go way down, or not?


"U.S. stocks in freefall"

Maybe.
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221109

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

backpacker, Two differences: 1) S&P 500 performance over the last 20 years has been over the threshold of what I would consider decent. This is not the case for the Ex-US index. You needed an active fund to get a decent return out of foreign. 2) I haven't done a scientific study of this, but th...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

bonds are at new historic lows, notably including the 30 year. oil is down 60%. commodities are down, some at multi-year lows. Does this stuff happen without a deflationary recession soon to follow? the oil shock of the 80s didn't cause a deflationary recession. Well, maybe, I think the 91 recessio...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221109

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I couldn't stomach a large/core holding with only 59 companies. That's too concentrated for my risk tolerance.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... ture=en-US
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

my bad. I pulled them from an earlier ticker. They do hold some us assets, but i think it's a fair comparison. Those are great funds, but one thing about these long term manager performance runs, they can die badly. I'm not saying they will!!! I don't make predictions. But manager risk is a real thi...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Right, but my point is that the belief that you describe here goes against the data in foreign investing, so I'm not sure what it is based on since the past doesn't support it, and the future is unknown. That doesn't mean that it will be a bad approach going forward, just that I don't see the basis...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Yeah, Yeah. Why would anyone believe that disclaimer on the fund's web page that says past performance does not guarantee future performance? You don't know the future performance of the actively-managed foreign mutual funds, or of VXUS/VGTSX (Ex-US index), so you can't differentiate based on that....
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas

i diy my taxes. I use H&R Block software because I have schedule C income and also have a "trust/1041". Turbo tax upcharged me for schedule C and then i had to buy their separate business software. It was 200 bucks. 70ish for H&R Block. I will say their 1041 program / business, is ...
by zotty
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas
Replies: 52
Views: 7022

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

We won't know for sure till end of day, but at the moment it looks like the breakdown in prices has now occurred. Intra-day prices suggest a double bottom breakdown with a downside target of 1910. First resistance level at 1973 or so, blowing through that would be a strong confirmation of the new t...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221109

Re: Moving a regular taxable joint account to our Living Tru

You are simply changing the title on the account. There shouldn't be a tax events. Really? our trust is a complex/irrevocable one, but certainly wasn't that way for us. We created a trust account at vanguard, who wanted to review our trust documents first. We then moved money. when we exceed the gi...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving a regular taxable joint account to our Living Trust
Replies: 6
Views: 251

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I'm not visual guy, but I'd start with the "dud" issue. international stocks have been pretty dud'ish of late. no question. it's also true that international growth stocks have faired somewhat better, and thus active managers targeting international growth stocks have outperformed the inde...
by zotty
Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

its history over the 19 years or so since its inception doesn't give me a good feeling. It just has a pretty long track record of being a pretty lousy investment. This is almost precisely the feature which has compelled me to buy more. My international % has been increasing incrementally since 2011...
by zotty
Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Everytime i talk myself into international bonds, i talk myself out of them. I've got a healthy dose of currency risk in my portfolio with stocks. Hedged? I guess. That just seems expensive to me (buying derivatives to balance currency can't be completely free). maybe if there were a large differenc...
by zotty
Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

50/50 is the clear winner, but only after a financial crisis, which only effects international stocks.

Good news is that we're about to have one, so be ready, but don't tell anyone.

I'll stop now.
by zotty
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

But in the meantime, there will be plenty of opinions such as this one about Grandma Europe from Arthur Brooks that was published in the NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/07/opinion/an-aging-europes-decline.html This seems like noise to me. I thought that corporate profits and GDP growth are ...
by zotty
Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

If we are sure there is a shoe left to drop, we should be accumulating cash in preparation for the dropping shoe. Some times the market does not correctly price the cost of a dropping shoe, some times it does. There is nothing to say that said shoe will drop or that the shoe dropping will result in ...
by zotty
Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 224
Views: 24699

Re: Home Mortgage payoff

Your home situation is different than mine, but i will share my experience. I paid off our home in 2010. Sold the home a few weeks ago. New home, new mortgage. I won't pay it all off again. The money we "saved" with no monthly mortgage went into lifestyle. I am a prudent fellow, and my wif...
by zotty
Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Mortgage payoff
Replies: 22
Views: 2590

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

semi-annual excursion into the 37s. At least we aren't bombarded with ads about "the global growth engine- emerging markets" anymore. FWIW, i still buy when it reaches the 37s. Not that it's been an idea worth writing home about. 5 years, and counting, return-free risk. On the plus side, t...
by zotty
Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18616

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

Russia's large cap ETF RSX dropped 11.84% yesterday. :shock: One of its top holdings Gazprom now has a PE <2. Fun to look at its top 25 holdings on Morningstar..... And curiously the micex is neutral on the year. the ENTIRE move in RSX is currency related. Looks like another down day for VWO. upper...
by zotty
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 37
Views: 3606

Re: Oil's future...

people forget how badly oil can bust and for how long. T Boone is just being an optimist. He knows what can happen. I have nothing to say about the reasons, pro & con, i'm just saying oil can really really bust and it can totally wreck local economies and non-diversified fortunes. The plus side ...
by zotty
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil's future...
Replies: 56
Views: 6400

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

I am a rule of 37s accumulator of VWO. Not big money, but when it makes it's semi-annual dip into 37, i do some accumulation. The rule of 37s has continued to "work" for several years and may continue to "work" for several more, as VWO goes up and then gravity pulls it back to 37...
by zotty
Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 37
Views: 3606

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

market timers can rejoice this one. Wow. Up 4% in a few days!?

grok, however many you bought or didn't buy, I can promise you that it is me that should have bought more! I did it to see how it worked. didn't realize it was a get rich quick scheme. :)
by zotty
Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9568

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

grok87 wrote:

as predicted 1.50% (I had only specified 3 sig. figs).
Yes! Yes! Yes!


Nicely played!
by zotty
Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9568

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

i hope that is right,but...isn't that just the high yield of the competitive bidding?
by zotty
Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9568

Re: Advice for computer science student

I would find an experienced recruiter in your area and ask them what is the most marketable programming language, or languages, and then perhaps device, or server side. Don't trust professors, or old hats, like me, for technology specific direction. A recruiter is the best source of the trend. Not t...
by zotty
Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for computer science student
Replies: 33
Views: 2596

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

grok87 wrote:
zotty wrote:it says the indicative yield is 1.411, how accurate is that?

see my post above


grok, thanks for answering this question and the one from yesterday. I appreciate it.
by zotty
Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9568

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

it says the indicative yield is 1.411, how accurate is that?
by zotty
Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9568

Re: the sky is about to fall!

zerohedge and other recession porn sites have been overlaying 1929 charts for a long time. Since at least 2010. European deflationary disaster. Now it's china deflationary disaster. Make no mistake, at some point, they will be right. But that's just the way broken clocks work. It's really not good t...
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [MarketWatch: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction]
Replies: 43
Views: 4741

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?

I have a more mundane question.

Do you typically get a slightly better interest rate buying at auction from vanguard, or buying secondary? I bought 10s and 5s a few weeks ago (small amounts), and noticed i ended up fractionally below the current yield curve.
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 2/13- any takers?
Replies: 131
Views: 9568

best current place for short term reserves?

My buddy sold his primary residence (the area got hot) and made some money that he may need within less than a year. It's about 50K.

It may take a while to find the next house, and earning something nominal is better, at least, than just sitting in checking.

Any thoughts?

Thanks!
by zotty
Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: best current place for short term reserves?
Replies: 4
Views: 547

Re: Going all into Emerging Markets

Rules of 37s and 43. When Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) goes below 37, it's time to buy. When Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF goes above 43, it's time to sell. Rinse, lather, repeat. This strategy will generate 20% gains until it stops working, then it will generate a huge loss, or run for a muc...
by zotty
Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going all into Emerging Markets
Replies: 69
Views: 7233

Re: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now

Last year I retired ... And you've decided to move your allocation to 80/20 stocks and bonds? I don't mean this to sound snarky, but are you really just wanting to go back to work? I know a lot of people who had to keep working after 2000, and after 2008. Many are just now recovering. A few won't e...
by zotty
Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now
Replies: 12
Views: 1487

Re: Is 60/40 really the gold standard?

I am 46 and I like 60/40. I have saved a lot (but not *enough* to call it a day). 60/40 is my sleep and night, no envy portfolio. I like it.
by zotty
Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 really the gold standard?
Replies: 35
Views: 5572

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

Non bogleheaded: I mess around with my portfolio more than i should. I don't like EM (too much china) but i did buy EM stocks last week. If you think the panic is overdone, then hang tight or buy more. I don't know, but i do bottom fish when EM hits a certain level. It could crash through it, but I ...
by zotty
Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1415

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

I think it depends on the role of bonds in your portfolio? I'm a "bonds are for safety" person. In times of crisis, it's hard to beat TBM, well, risk adjusted. 30 year bonds the best, but too much interest rate risk along the way. if bonds are a ballast, like me, it's hard to beat a treasu...
by zotty
Thu Feb 06, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1415

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Well, by earnings valuation, it's cheaper than the rest of the world. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0964&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 Bottom fishing is risky business, maybe this is 2009 type of event for EM and it is destined to cut back to 2009 levels. Maybe it's not. We are n...
by zotty
Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18616

Re: WHat to do with current market conditions

im about 75% stocks now and 20% bonds- think selling off some investments now and holding them in cash is wise? This is a VERY common mistake. almost everyone does it, at one time or anything. It's usually a money loser. The odds are against it working out in your favor. The problem with this strat...
by zotty
Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WHat to do with current market conditions
Replies: 21
Views: 1233

Re: I go senile, day trade on margin, wash sale, and...

Fat finger!

I bought a 4K in ten year notes when they touched 3, at the start of the year. Never bought an individual bond before.

I dutifully placed an order for 4 million dollars in 10 year treasuries. Thankfully, vanguard balked, "call their help desk"... whew.
by zotty
Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I go senile, day trade on margin, wash sale, and...
Replies: 24
Views: 2902

Re: Advisor Opposes TIPS Ladder Strategy

The issue that I have with this advisor is that clearly the advisor is mixing in his personal ideology and his personal investment tastes with his recommendations. I don't know anything about real advisors in the real world, but ideally, a "professional" in any field would not do this, or...
by zotty
Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor Cautions Against TIPS Ladder Strategy
Replies: 85
Views: 6082

Re: Opening a P.O. Box for a soon-to-be created LLC

I just used my home address (in 2002) why complicate it? avoiding junk mail is futile anyway.
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Opening a P.O. Box for a soon-to-be created LLC
Replies: 6
Views: 638

Re: Advisor Opposes TIPS Ladder Strategy

Zvi's approach to saving as always appealed to me. I don't have enough money yet. I think the absolute most important thing is that you are sure it will be enough. His comment about shadowstats is bunk, but i think it's true that your personal rate of inflation may be more or less than CPI and with ...
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor Cautions Against TIPS Ladder Strategy
Replies: 85
Views: 6082

Re: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?

get whatever version supports Schedule C

I've been using HR Block, not that i recommend it, it just includes 1041 preparation too, which i need for a trust. I'll do a lot of things to save a 100 bucks.
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?
Replies: 33
Views: 2517

Re: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?

I have a single member llc. It's a schedule C. I find it perfectly simple, but i've been doing it a while. I dump a sheet of profit and loss from quickbooks, make an excel spreadsheet which maps qb lines into schedule c lines, and then type in the values. It's really easy. I am married and filing jo...
by zotty
Sat Jan 25, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Free advisory assistance for startups in North Carolina?
Replies: 33
Views: 2517

Re: Balancing portfolios: stocks/bonds, barbell, protective

But if you look at options on SPY, the price of a protective put for a year at 100, which is above the 2008 crash level, is about 0.5% of SPY's value... so roughly, for 0.5% per year, you'd be able to insulate the portfolio against major drops like that. A portfolio put has a nice ring to it, but t...
by zotty
Fri Jan 24, 2014 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balancing portfolios: stocks/bonds, barbell, protective puts
Replies: 7
Views: 796

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

lazyday wrote:Sticking with VWO for now.


I wish they hadn't removed Korea. Then it would be less a "china fund". I guess they wanted a china fund, in hindsight, not a good move.
by zotty
Fri Jan 24, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 2184

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

Since I've been using this forum, all I've read is that you need "International" and "Emerging Markets" allocations to be diversified. After the past 4 years, I think that, that is exactly what you get: Diversification as in you won't see any return. January 2011 to January 2014...
by zotty
Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 2184
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