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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- S&P 500 Index at record 2000

Unfortunately I think these 7 will not win. It is either going up or down from here! : )
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- S&P 500 Index at record 2000
Replies: 4
Views: 857

Re: What 5 stocks can I own forever?

Kodak, Tennessee Coal Iron and RR, US Rubber, American Cotton Oil, Facebook.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What 5 stocks can I own forever?
Replies: 58
Views: 4390

Re: S&P500 over 2000

Doctor Shiller's predictions From CNBC dated 31 December 2010 - Using long term analysis, Professor Robert Shiller, macromarkets chief economist at Yale University and the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, told CNBC on Friday that the S&P 500 may reach 1430 by the year 20...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 68
Views: 5188

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

For my system? I should have had started with 5% bonds at age 15.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3660

Re: Downsizing emergency fund

Don't just worry about the risk of putting some of this money in stocks and bonds, worry also about the risk of inflation.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Downsizing emergency fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1276

Re: Playing Millenial Student Debt

I don't find this information reliable enough or, even if reliable, actionable in any particular way. More important than what happens to middle class millenials who delay buying a home, worry about the impact on the economy from having 50 million Americans below the poverty line. The action there i...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing Millenial Student Debt
Replies: 5
Views: 651

Re: What to tell friends who think "it's all a scam"

I much prefer to wait it out and see their remorse after stocks continue to be the best investment around for decades. Then again, I enjoy a touch of schadenfreude at the expense of conspiracy thinkers. E.g. the gold bugs of the past 5 years.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to tell friends who think "it's all a scam"
Replies: 64
Views: 5690

Re: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]

Stocks now down to where they were in late May. If you simply purchased back in early May, instead of waiting for an RBD... Better yet in April, or March. The RBD concept = buying on the dips. It has no basis in mathematical reality and is one of many schemes that seeks to out think the market. It t...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 49
Views: 5083

Re: Goodbye and Good Luck!

M_to_the_G wrote:banned three times... wha? huh? stayed too long trying to pay it forward? refocus energies on something other then personal finance?

I don't get it...


Wants to spend more time with family.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Goodbye and Good Luck!
Replies: 12
Views: 2562

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

But how many put their entire nest egg into the market right before a crash and then never add any more money? I would like to see the worst 30 years for someone who invested $1,000 a year for the entire 30 years.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 43
Views: 4299

Re: Bonds!!??

This matches my experience with Chase bank representatives. They never really know what they are talking about and simply push the products (crappy mutual funds from Franklin Tempelton or Alliance Bernstein) that make them the most money. As I was closing my relationship with the last Chase adviser,...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds!!??
Replies: 56
Views: 10729

Re: Afraid of Bonds

These bond posts have been around for a few years now. Last I checked, my bond purchases at Vanguard are in the green. So not only better income than a CD or bank account, but they actually made a small cap. gain as well. Be afraid of missing out on time in market. Be afraid of inflation.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Afraid of Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2304

Re: possible to have TOO MUCH in 401k account?

2) What if taxes are higher when you retire? http://taxfoundation.org/article/us-federal-individual-income-tax-rates-history-1913-2013-nominal-and-inflation-adjusted-brackets for example, in 1983 the tax rate for income exceeding $34,100 (~80k in todays dollars) was 40%. Historically speaking, our ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 13, 2014 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: possible to have TOO MUCH in 401k account?
Replies: 54
Views: 7344

Re: Bond ETFs a certain loss?

We had a great break from these bond posts for a while, I guess because bonds once again beat expectations. Now that interest rates are increasing a bit, the posts are back.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 12, 2014 6:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond ETFs a certain loss?
Replies: 16
Views: 1164

Re: Demographics of Millenials and how that will affect retu

We may be delaying children and marriage but we are not delaying spending. Couples live together and buy houses or rent houses. Couples still travel, eat out, spend money, etc. Obviously the largest anchor weighing down millenials is our titanic student loan obligations. Actually the average studen...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics of Millennials and how that will affect returns
Replies: 14
Views: 1867

Re: Emergency Fund. Not Boglehead-ish?

This, like bond allocation, is largely a personal choice. Do what makes you feel comfortable. Although I keep a very healthy emergency fund, larger than most, it allows me to comfortably invest at 80 - 20. I doubt I would do that without a solid e fund and so in that way, it is not exactly a drag be...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 05, 2014 6:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund. Not Boglehead-ish?
Replies: 28
Views: 2012

Re: I need some "hand-holding" right now...

"I took a big hit (as most did) in 2008 and pulled out of the market for several years. Mistake. All the gloom and doom news and the market just continued to grow ever since! Many have about doubled their value since 2009!" Actually I am going to talk you out of investing. If you don't hav...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 25, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I need some "hand-holding" right now...
Replies: 51
Views: 5415

Re: GoPro IPO

I am excited to see GoPro develop lots of additional products like wireless waterproof microphones etc. They should stick to high quality and they may be the Kodak of the new era of video content. Some day soon, most content could be filmed on a GoPro and hosted on Youtube, LiveLeak, etc. However, I...
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 23, 2014 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 29
Views: 2714

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

Actually I will have this very same issue soon! Next month I will put any extra money in my savings account into mostly these two stock funds and a bit of bonds too. Total stock market happens to be down by 1,000 so it will get 1,000 more. Bonds purchased to keep my ratio 80/20. It is really comfort...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 19, 2014 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1872

Re: Saving to buy house. Invest in municipal bonds?

I read an earlier post about saving money to buy a house. The comments, if I recall, suggested CDs or Vanguard Life Strategy Funds. What about short/intermediate term California (that's my state of residence) or national municipal bonds? CDs vs Vanguard mutual funds are totally different. Depending...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 18, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Saving to buy house. Invest in municipal bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 683

Re: "Get out of bond funds"

Vanguard estimates that nominal high quality bond returns over the next decade to be somewhere around 2%, which is likely to be at or below the 10 year inflation rate. That is to say about a zero real return for a decade. Why lock up dead money for a decade when you're early in the accumulating pha...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 13, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Get out of bond funds"
Replies: 147
Views: 22801

Re: Buffett pulls further ahead

Doesn't this provide further reason not to invest beyond it's market weight?
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 06, 2014 7:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett pulls further ahead
Replies: 16
Views: 3100

Re: 14 yr. old nephew wants to invest $600

Fun, but a bank account might be best. It gives him the flexibility to save more money, perhaps even weekly depositing money he earns. Teaching to save regularly is more important now, and if he needs some of it he can get it from a bank account without liquidating a mutual fund and paying taxes.
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 06, 2014 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 14 yr. old nephew wants to invest $600
Replies: 16
Views: 1809

Re: Retirement in 15 years, $200K in cash

Employer provides a 5% match of total paycheck. 15 years is also a very conservative estimate. I'm 50 years old and I plan on working as long as possible which hopefully ends up being around 20-25 years. You probably will have to unless you save quite a bit starting now, say 30,000 a year for the n...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 05, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement in 15 years, $200K in cash
Replies: 16
Views: 3192

Re: Cash I bonds for college fees?

good points! we dont qualify for any financial aid (fasfa). but i like your idea of cahsing some of the more recent bonds. i notice when i go to the bond value calculator that it shows the older i bonds earning close to 4% (is that possible?) and more recent ones showing 1.19%. Those bonds from the...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 05, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash I bonds for college fees?
Replies: 7
Views: 680

Re: Wait to invest since stocks are high?

And if it goes higher wait some more? My unscientific method is it is usually reasonable to do some lump sum immediately and then dollar cost average the rest over 6-9 months. When the market is at an objective high (not that it feels high) then maybe the initial lump is 20-25%. If the market has b...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 04, 2014 8:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait to invest since stocks are high?
Replies: 13
Views: 1591

Re: Where are the Opportunities now ?

greg24 wrote:Today is a good opportunity to challenge yourself to increase your 401k withholding by 1 or 2%.


Exactly, opportunities look like working harder, working a 2nd job, trying to get a better job, saving more, spending less. This will almost certainly trump any investment choices you make.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where are the Opportunities now ?
Replies: 37
Views: 3597

Re: Starting Again - 35yo Australian in Japan

My concerns are that 1) coming off the back of my bad investment I'm going to try to make up for lost time and go in too aggressively One thing that I'm sure will come up is "why don't you sell the company stock?" Well, apart from the capital gains tax we'd be hit with it's my wife's and ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 19, 2014 7:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting Again - 35yo Australian in Japan
Replies: 11
Views: 1495

Re: Save for 25 years = $1million?

Don't make the kid feel bad, but in 25 years a million wont seem like much. If he gets a few promotions and keeps working at a big company, he could be earning $200,000 a year in his last 10 years on the job. A million will be easy, but not enough at that point. His target should be 3 million by 65.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Save for 25 years = $1million?
Replies: 22
Views: 4265

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Remember this is how bad it has been in the past. It can get quite a bit worse, as in the value of all human holdings going to zero. One hopes to think that is unlikely, but I doubt it is.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 6008

Re: Mother Of Bog! I'm Uncertain/Frightened To Buy Fund

Yes go with a conservative fund and sleep well at night. However, the two funds you mention here are wildly different. One is 20% stocks and the other is 66% or so. Pick something reasonable and go with it. Maybe you want to buy half now and buy the next half in 6 months if that makes you feel bette...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Really Would Appreciate Your Advice!
Replies: 72
Views: 3338

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Agreed. This 5 year engineered bull market has been no friend of long term accumulators who have had to buy at higher and higher prices. Be much better off for these folks if the market had stayed in purgatory for the last five years. Be careful what you wish for. Or we could hit Dow 30,000 in a fe...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 802
Views: 135335

Re: What to do with cash?

The size of your student loan is way too similar to this 40K. I think the universe is trying to tell you something...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with cash?
Replies: 16
Views: 2507

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Based on one of Warren Buffet's favorite All due respect to him, but who cares? Who cares what he thinks? He has not beaten the market in 7 years from what I hear. I went to wsjonline, ran charts on BRK.B and SPX: value at 4/5/14: Brk.b 124.97 Spx 1911.63 value at 4/5/04: Brk.b 62.38 Spx 1107.30 ch...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 13944

Re: Why so many Bond funds

"including corporate bonds and debentures, convertible and preferred securities, zero coupon obligations and tranches of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)" Sounds like a winner! It did well enough recently, but everything this fund seeks to d...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why so many Bond funds
Replies: 6
Views: 706

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Based on one of Warren Buffet's favorite All due respect to him, but who cares? Who cares what he thinks? He has not beaten the market in 7 years from what I hear. Last I checked, total market cap was sitting well over 18 trillion, with GDP closer to 15 trillion. Not sure why this means anything. S...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 07, 2014 6:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 13944

Re: How Ignorant am I? 5yr on Job, No 401k. 100K collecting

Hey, for whats it's worth, I'd rather be 30 and have 100k in the bank than be 31 and have only 70k in 401k. (oh wait.. who wouldnt!) Except he would have something like 50,000 in the bank and 125,000 in the 401K had he maxed it out for the past 5 years and got the 5% match and a 50% return on money...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Ignorant am I? 5yr on Job, No 401k. 100K collecting dust
Replies: 41
Views: 5570

Re: Using municipal bonds for short term saving

If you know you have 5 years, I think a raise your rate 4 year Ally CD might be best for all around peace of mind and flexibility in the event of inflation. You get 1.3% right now.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using municipal bonds for short term saving
Replies: 6
Views: 869

Re: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]

Investing largely through Vanguard, I worry less about this. A company with the GPD of Russia in assets strikes me as likely to get good deals when they have to trade.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 7080

Re: Watching The Market Is Not Investing

I like watching the market and reading news, it is fun. Only do it if you can remove emotion from the situation however.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watching The Market Is Not Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: Retired one month, now what?

Those "other" comments are best left unanswered since they were not really trying to be helpful. I will say that I did manage to increase my account more than 5X from it's all time low of about $173K in about 12 years. As to the 500% return in 12 years, please tell us how you did it becau...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired one month, now what?
Replies: 25
Views: 5200

Re: Retired one month, now what?

MI was pretty heavy into tech stocks during the dot com crash and that has made me very aware of how easily I could lose a lot of money if I don’t invest wisely. I’ve managed to build my accounts back up by diversifying in Vanguard funds and ignoring market corrections and staying the course until ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired one month, now what?
Replies: 25
Views: 5200

Re: Worried about the market

Worry more at Dow 25,000, a likely high point before another recession. If we go to 28,000, then fall back down to 20,000 and you failed to get in now, won't that feel worse? I feel better knowing that even if you buy some shares at a temporary high, and even if they fall below that mark, they will ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worried about the market
Replies: 24
Views: 2433

Re: Were These Investment Advisors Lying or Incompetent?

I also asked if they knew the difference between a net ER and a gross ER (both were listed), and they said they would have to get back to me about that as well. Seems condescending to put someone on the spot like that. They were invited to give the presentation after all. Yes who in the world would...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 26, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Were These Investment Advisors Lying or Incompetent?
Replies: 100
Views: 7951

Re: how do student loans work?

Lastly, college education may be much cheaper in 10-15 years. There is at least a chance that your child will be able attend college online for a very reasonable cost. It already is, if your student attends a state or city school, they can pay a fraction of what private schools charge. That may not...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how do student loans work?
Replies: 9
Views: 1099

Re: Ruminatiions on the US bull market

I rebalance quarterly so no problems there. However, if the rally continues for another 3 - 5 years and the Dow hits 35,000, I will switch to age in bonds. Hows that for market timing?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 25, 2014 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminatiions on the US bull market
Replies: 10
Views: 1479

Re: High Yield Florida Bond

Why take such tremendous risk with bonds? These returns are great but over a decade stocks are likely to beat them. I bet there are 1 - 2% fees somewhere too.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 25, 2014 6:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Florida Bond
Replies: 7
Views: 730

Re: Jim Cramer's Index Embrace

Still suggesting that those who want to spend the time can investigate individual stocks, watch his show, and beat index funds and the market. So he is still lying to people who are not smart enough to make rational choices about this stuff.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 25, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer's Index Embrace
Replies: 11
Views: 1915

Re: Non-profit endowment: VG LifeStrategy?

Absolutely a good choice. However, good luck convincing the types of people you find on these boards. They are typically of the sort who know so much about finance that an index investment is an insult to them and unable to satisfy their need for complex solutions to simple problems. (Yes I say this...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Non-profit endowment question
Replies: 10
Views: 837

Re: Buy and hold or keep adding

The market will inevitably trend downwards but no one can say when or how quickly. We can't even say that it will ever drop below the closing today, although that is a likely thing. Out of the range of possible outcomes, it is pretty clear that Dow 25,000 in a few years is not unlikely. You sure wi...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy and hold or keep adding
Replies: 6
Views: 705
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