Search found 822 matches

by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Insured Puerto Rico Bonds- Hold or try to sell?
Replies: 17
Views: 1012

Re: Individual Insured Puerto Rico Bonds- Hold or try to sell?

5% tax free when I bought them. I didn't see this coming as I bought these well before the Puerto Rico problems were well known, at least to me! In many ways that 5% return was the warning sign. My gut reaction is to just hold them. US domiciled bonds from a government that is able to get revenue t...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game
Replies: 10
Views: 478

Re: Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game

Maynard F. Speer wrote:Quite easy actually

Sell immediately and buy back at any negative opportunity and you'll beat the market


Yes you figured it out! Can we turn that into an IRL strategy?
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game
Replies: 10
Views: 478

Quartz (electronic magazine) offers market timing game

"Do you think you can beat the market? Really?" "Let’s pick a random 10-year history of the S&P 500 and see if you can spot and avoid the downturn, as the chart progresses through time below." http://qz.com/487013/this-game-will-show-you-just-how-foolish-it-is-to-sell-stocks-...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 37
Views: 6119

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

You know if VGPMX goes to $3 I would consider buying the minimum 1,000 shares. That's about it though.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 84
Views: 8819

Re: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?

rakaye47 wrote:The ultimate fear portfolio: 30% commodity futures, 30% gold, 40% china stocks


That is terrifying : )
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A warning on RBDs [Really Bad Days]
Replies: 46
Views: 6317

Re: A warning on RBDs

Which is precisely why the constant chatter on this board about "RBDs" and how they necessitate some kind of action is absurd, contradictory, and likely confusing to newer members. Yes, without a doubt, it makes no sense. Wait for stocks to go from 16,000 to 18,000 without buying because ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting out of your comfort zone
Replies: 21
Views: 2182

Re: Getting out of your comfort zone

The most recent decision was moving a 6-figure amount from bonds to equities in the last minute of trading last Friday. That's going to hurt come Monday : ( A 1% drop is still only a few thousand dollars. So I guess I will have to double-down to get comfortable. $16,000 or so? : ) Of course it is o...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting out of your comfort zone
Replies: 21
Views: 2182

Re: Getting out of your comfort zone

livesoft wrote:The most recent decision was moving a 6-figure amount from bonds to equities in the last minute of trading last Friday.


That's going to hurt come Monday : (
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 35747

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

JoMoney wrote:
...Note the rise and drop around 1937... several years after the crash was looking like a recovery. :shock:


Check out "The forgotten man" by Shlaes for more on this double-dip depression.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed up for a promotion, now what?
Replies: 34
Views: 4268

Re: Passed up for a promotion, now what?

First I wouldn't take it personally, no matter how much the VP likes you it is possible they had some very tight decisions to make. Don't confront until you have new job options. "I am going to start looking for a new job." is too much information for them to have and it does not put on a ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 5914

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

Even though it seems impossible now, the real nightmare scenario would be high inflation and massive inflation adjusted losses over the course of a decade or more. That is the big weakness in bonds; the risk of falling behind inflation over the course of a whole investing career. This is also why iB...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWO - Emerging Markets
Replies: 27
Views: 2666

Re: VWO - Emerging Markets

You mean you don't want to wait for an RBD in VWO to buy? I would invest in something else and exchange into VWO when it had an RBD. I predict that it is just going to dribble lower and lower for a little while until folks get sick of it and sell in a flurry dropping the price more than 3% in a sin...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 7185

Re: Piling into emerging markets

Just got $1000 of total international today, trying to keep the AA balanced. Not loving the feel of any investment right now, but what can we do? It is a vote of confidence in the future. The Euro at $1.10 feels like a pretty good deal.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 4336

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

The uptick in posts against international may be a good argument for going overweight at this time.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 04, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple & the Market:
Replies: 15
Views: 1763

Re: Apple & the Market:

Apple drops 50% in a catastrophe and the market falls 2% as a result. Maybe tack on another 2% out of panic. It is a bad day for stocks to be sure, but not even among the 10 worst days. Is this ever going to happen even over the course of a few months? I doubt it.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maturing CDs -- Now What?
Replies: 15
Views: 1908

Re: Maturing CDs -- Now What?

clydewolf wrote:
z3r0c00l wrote:
clydewolf wrote:When the interest rate on that 2016 CD rises sufficiently


*If the rate rises.

Of course!

But Ms Yellen says rates will begin to rise in 2015.


I hear you, but she doesn't set CD rates. It is quite likely that rates will stay low for a few more years at a minimum.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 02, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maturing CDs -- Now What?
Replies: 15
Views: 1908

Re: Maturing CDs -- Now What?

clydewolf wrote:When the interest rate on that 2016 CD rises sufficiently


*If the rate rises.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Big mistake
Replies: 13
Views: 2424

Re: Big mistake

I hold in taxable too. Lack of space and good options in the 401K for bonds, and I find the liquidity attractive.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 4775

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

If you're merely niggling the tense then keep in mind I was referring to an established historical period (1985-2014) and in that time frame the portfolio w/REIT 'is' superior. I don't know that it is just pedanticism in this instance. We cannot speak about a period of time in the past without sayi...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you keep/park your emergency fund?
Replies: 54
Views: 6281

Re: Where do you keep/park your emergency fund?

Checking account (zero interest), Savings account (low interest), CD while waiting to buy iBonds, iBonds account for most of my eFund. Soon the iBonds will keep pace with inflation at my full eFund need and then all new money will go into the investments. Of course 20% of my AA is in a bond fund, bu...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 4775

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

FillorKill wrote:simply swapping REIT for HY results in a portfolio that is clearly superior.


That WAS clearly superior. Is/will be are not especially forecastable.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 37
Views: 6119

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

Down another 15% from the time this thread started, and down 25% off a recent high of $10. Wouldn't be shocked to see it hit $5 soon. Or it could go to $40 in a year. Steer clear big tuna, head for open index waters.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Huge Mistake, Bought PBYI, Now What?
Replies: 26
Views: 3465

Re: Huge Mistake, Bought PBYI, Now What?

I would hold it for 10 years and then see what it does. That is the point of play money, to take chances on long shots in the hopes of a 1000% return.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 13, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-Savings Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4032

Re: I-Savings Bonds

Also a 2nd tier to the emergency fund. Buying $10,000 a year until I hit 12 months of expenses (later this year). Will hold off on getting any more at that point probably.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 02, 2015 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: invest some or keep in cash - emergency fund
Replies: 8
Views: 925

Re: invest some or keep in cash - emergency fund

If $35,000 is enough, then $60,000 is too much. I would DCA that money into your regular investments. If you want to split the difference, put the money in bonds giving you a slightly more conservative AA but still more risky/rewardy than cash.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jul 01, 2015 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Horrible fund choices
Replies: 9
Views: 971

Re: Horrible fund choices

Here's hoping that they will at least add the option of a self managed account, say with a $100 a year fee or something. Maybe they will even be convinced to offer better options some day but that is not so likely. Do you think it may be too soon to contact HR about this since you just started? Mayb...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
Replies: 37
Views: 3569

Re: Greece or Puerto Rico?

It seems unlikely that any nation could ever recover from debt of many years of GDP. They can perhaps kick it down the road for a long time, decades, but in the long run... Maybe with sudden and intense inflation? In any event, the big difference here is the fact that PR can always be covered by the...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 26225

Re: Greece impact on US markets Monday morning

Actually comes at a perfect time since I have to rebalance about now anyway.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 27, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 4179

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

rca1824 wrote:
z3r0c00l wrote:My broken record line is required here; run the historical simulation for Japan.


Why would I invest 100% in a single country. I use global cap weights.



Okay, then run it for 1929.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go
Replies: 52
Views: 5639

Re: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go

What if we derive satisfaction from hearing you plan to pay this down right away? Having such a small amount left would drive me crazy, would rather just get it over with.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 27122

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

On almost exactly the date this thread started, I increased international stocks to 60% of equities - it wasn't because of this thread, or PE10 specifically, but that was probably part of the consideration. I consider it a long term decision, and have no plans to change anything. That said... my ti...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?
Replies: 21
Views: 2937

Re: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?

yellowgirl wrote:Off topic, not sure if this is true but I heard doctors that studied at Caribbean medical schools are usually not good or less than average?


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/03/educa ... .html?_r=0
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 4179

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

My broken record line is required here; run the historical simulation for Japan.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 220
Views: 25194

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Purchased my first Vanguard fund within days of the very bottom of the market, $3000 worth of total stock market. A great buy of course, but I sadly did not have enough money or risk tolerance at the time to buy any more than that. In retrospect, I should have dumped my entire emergency fund into st...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High growth and low low low risk alternatives for hard earned money (after tax)
Replies: 7
Views: 1158

Re: High growth and low low low risk alternatives for hard earned money (after tax)

CDs, iBonds, and online savings accounts are the only safe bets. They don't offer high growth or really any growth at all after inflation. The best you can hope for is about a zero net return after taxes and inflation, savings accounts won't even get you that much. There simply is no way around the ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?
Replies: 37
Views: 5627

Re: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?

Because it's not enough that they exist... they also have to be undiscovered by a LOT of very smart people whose entire livelihood depend on finding relatively sure bets with high possibility of upside and low potential for downside... In fact those people spend 10-12 hours a day looking for such t...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 21, 2015 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 6166

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

sls239 wrote:There are lots of parts of the economy that don't show up on the stock markets - in addition to non-profits and government, law firms and medical practices come to mind.


I always wanted a 20% tilt towards NGOs and charities in particular, that is where the big profits are! : )
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA if uncertain of job stability in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1230

Re: AA if uncertain of job stability in next 10 years

I would keep AA at the most aggressive you can stomach, maybe 60/40, and then increase the emergency fund instead until you feel safe. I personally keep about 16 months of expenses, that was the median unemployment period for my cohort. There would be no harm in keeping even 2 years, imho. I would n...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation - Continuous Change
Replies: 6
Views: 1224

Re: Bond Allocation - Continuous Change

I would find these changes too minute to worry about. No need, imho, to worry about less than 5% much less 1% changes in asset allocation. I do age - 10 rounding down with a resolution of 5%. So 20% until I get to 35 then it is 25%. Even that feels like a minor shift. There will be daily shifts of ....
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5196

Re: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

50/50... I like those odds!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on choosing a Vanguard bond fund
Replies: 20
Views: 3120

Re: Advice on choosing a Vanguard bond fund

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares (VBTIX) 0.06%

You have the best bond mutual fund possible there, I would use it.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5196

Re: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

Wait until Thursday or whenever the default actually happens, then we will see if it is priced in or not. I am guessing not.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The world's cheapest stock markets 2015
Replies: 21
Views: 3688

Re: The world's cheapest stock markets 2015

Back before I was a Boglehead, I bought the T Rowe Price Japan Fund on the theory that it had underperformed for years and it was due to have a good year. :oops: Still waiting for a good year! Glad I cut my losses and bought the Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth fund, all those many years ago. Up 100% s...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market
Replies: 41
Views: 4459

Re: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market

We know that there are winning scratch-off lottery tickets out there. The ideal thing would be to only buy winning tickets and skip all the losers. Since we can't do that with stocks, the best we can do is buy all of the stocks and (unlike lotto) get the average return of the market, which has been ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How risky is real estate (especially New York City real estate)?
Replies: 26
Views: 3947

Re: How risky is real estate (especially New York City real estate)?

Solid 2 BRs in Windsor Terrace for 600s. I think you should shop around more if you really want to buy. I personally have no intention of buying any time soon, the math just doesn't add up unless you know you want to stay for 10+ years in one place.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWESX (vanguard Long term investment grade)
Replies: 4
Views: 491

Re: VWESX (vanguard Long term investment grade)

Always read the information provided about a fund before buying it! : ) "Moderate funds—Risk level 3 Risk level three Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relativ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond market in near future
Replies: 19
Views: 2715

Re: bond market in near future

Although asset allocation is a personal choice, I would go with 60/40 stocks and bonds myself at your age.
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why reinvest dividends?
Replies: 13
Views: 1877

Re: Why reinvest dividends?

I also do this simply because it is easy. One less thing to worry about. The money would be invested eventually, why not right away and on autopilot?
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming Economic Bubble
Replies: 45
Views: 6774

Re: Upcoming Economic Bubble

I have "The Crash of 2016" by Tom Hartman in my large pile of books to read. Unclear if it is better to read now, in 2015, or wait for the predictions to not come true so that it is a more relaxing read in 2017. What is clear is that I would never trust the predictions of any individual bo...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be possible? [Not lose money during 2008 crash]
Replies: 57
Views: 6588

Re: Can this be possible?

Is it more probable that nature should go out of her course or that a man could tell a lie? We have never seen, in our time, nature go out of her course. But we have good reason to believe that millions of lies have been told in the same time. It is therefore millions to one that the reporter of a ...

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