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Re: handling large market drops

Well the issue is this; keeping an excess of cash just sitting around waiting for the drop generally does not work. Sometimes the drop happens after an incredible 15 years of returns, during which time your cash could miss out on 100% gains or more. Often the drop does not return you to the starting...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: handling large market drops
Replies: 16
Views: 1035

Re: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement

"what I saw was that since 1930..." A 20 year recovery kinda ruins this plan, as does a 90% loss in stock value. Conservative investors should think about the worst case scenario.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement
Replies: 26
Views: 2285

Re: Have you ever been let go?

Yes, after only a few years at my first full time job I was laid off with a large number of other staff. This is a common thing in this industry, especially in hard economic times (and yet we don't earn much). It was unexpected and upsetting at first. I was fuming a bit, even though severance was qu...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have you ever been let go?
Replies: 74
Views: 5474

Re: High(ish) earner; spending too much?

We are the same age and you make closer to an order of magnitude more than I do than double, so I would say enjoy it while you have it! 120K a year is a very good amount to be saving (and with that high net worth already...) and for once it is great to see someone who is spending money on the finer ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High(ish) earner; spending too much?
Replies: 70
Views: 7927

Re: Nikkei index 20+ years later.

"Sure, the Dow might top 13,000 again in the future.
The S&P 500 might just trade above 1,440 once again.
Heck, maybe the Nasdaq will return to its glory days and trade over 5,000. Anything is possible."

If this month ends well for Nasdaq...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nikkei index 20+ years later.
Replies: 9
Views: 1601

Re: Why do we like dividends?

Kodak, Lehman Brothers, etc. Waiting decades for a company to swell in value is risky. I would rather they pay some of the profits all along. Even Lehman brothers would have returned something decent over the years provided you didn't simply reinvest in more Lehman brothers, that is. It makes sense ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we like dividends?
Replies: 114
Views: 8309

Re: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?

Got my first $3000 investment at Vanguard in March near the bottom. If only I had more money at the time to invest!
by z3r0c00l
Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 6270

Re: 23 year old... Can I afford a Rolex?

$5,000 gets you a nice vacation in Europe or Asia or Hawaii, with good meals, outdoor experiences and memories that will enhance your life immeasurably. The idea of spending that much on a watch is just crazy to me. I would perhaps consider it if I had $10 million or more, even then I would rather b...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 23 year old... Can I afford a Rolex?
Replies: 167
Views: 13928

Re: Start a business

1.) Be born into a wealthy family and/or 2.) Work hard and save and/or 3.) Win the lotto or do the business equivalent of that by getting into a lucky startup. Most businesses and many real estate deals end up making little to no money over time. There is a bit of a fiction behind the idea that ever...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Start a business
Replies: 14
Views: 1677

Re: Received an inheritance, clueless as to what to do with

Good advice so far. I would also suggest that at 33, it is certainly not too late to invest in your future. Think about a career that would interest you and offer stable employment and consider cost-effective (i.e. not massive student debt) training programs. How about working security? Getting a CD...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received an inheritance, clueless as to what to do with it.
Replies: 29
Views: 4637

Re: Is investing more risky today today than before the inte

Better for the individual investor by far, much more information, cheaper options for trading... the only counter is the increase in misinformation and scams through just one more venue. I guess a smart investor is better off, and a fool has one more way to get in trouble.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing more risky today today than before the internet
Replies: 30
Views: 3478

Re: When do your account returns dwarf your contributions?

I have been building my investment accounts gradually for 8 years. The daily changes in value are still relatively small, rarely more than a few thousand dollars either way, however starting with this most recent dip in stocks, it has become clear that my net worth is now dominated by market perform...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do your account returns dwarf your contributions?
Replies: 51
Views: 6883

Re: Investing in IPOs / Risks, Warnings?

It is a major gamble. On average IPOs don't do particularly well over a long stretch of time. If you happen to get the right IPO, you will make a fortune. If the company is tiny or if it is a penny stock IPO, stay clear. Always question why you are being offered this; most good IPO deals go first to...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in IPOs / Risks, Warnings?
Replies: 10
Views: 631

Re: is 3.20% Vanguard brokered CD best deal around?

I would also much rather put the money in a bond fund than a 10 year CD or even a 7 year CD of this kind. Liquidity is very attractive.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is 3.20% Vanguard brokered CD best deal around?
Replies: 48
Views: 4507

Re: 30% In International Stocks?

One way to look at this: Millions of investors world-wide have already determined that US and International equities warrant a roughly 50/50 split. Given the perceived advantages of index/market weight investing, why would an individual investor want to deviate from global weightings? Exactly. If m...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30% In International Stocks?
Replies: 59
Views: 6484

Re: Gathering thoughts vs. Market Timing

1) I don't think bonds will fare very well now that QE is ending, in the short term at least 2) Given the above assumption (I'm very aware there are no guarantees), I felt that having more dry powder to DCA back in once I get my plan setup, would possibly offset the time out of the markets 3) The s...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gathering thoughts vs. Market Timing
Replies: 56
Views: 3771

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

I find some of these gut reactions confusing. The lack of correlation and rebalancing into funds that are not doing as well makes me feel better about having a strong international exposure. If they worked in lockstep all the time, I wouldn't find international nearly as attractive and would cringe ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5275

Re: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning

Not sure why he selected 20x, 25x seems like more of the danger zone to me.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning
Replies: 22
Views: 3717

Re: Sunday morning musing - dividend stocks

ny_rn wrote:+1. I would focus on travel, food and making others (family and friends) happy.


+2!

However I have to ask, if you used the money to buy a bond index fund, how much income would you see compared to these stocks?
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 09, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sunday morning musing - dividend stocks
Replies: 11
Views: 1242

Re: The Sky is Falling

Tigermoose wrote:I better get into the triple leveraged cash position.


I am 2x short cash right now. The 1.89% ER hurts but...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Sky is Falling
Replies: 36
Views: 5997

Re: Why are people so down on bonds?

I having been moving money out of bonds for a while now. Interest rates can only go one direction. I keep hearing that. And then I see this: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0927&FundIntExt=INT#tab=1 If I had the nerve to own long term bonds, it would have been a great few...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Nov 07, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are people so down on bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 6317

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

mack125 wrote:with the threat of rising rates and current low yields..


You have no idea how often that has been posted here during the past few years. Yet... here we are and it has yet to really happen significantly. Glad I didn't panic and put the money in a CD, would have made half if that.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Nov 06, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3752

Re: Pension lump sum offer - am I thinking clearly?

I had a "gut" feeling at the time about the financial stability of the company (a very large telecommunications company) and opted to take the lump sum payment and roll it over to an IRA. Sure enough, about five or six years later this major firm declared bankruptcy and all of its employe...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Nov 06, 2014 7:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension lump sum offer - am I thinking clearly?
Replies: 32
Views: 2466

Re: Are you buying I bonds in 2014? And if so, for what role

Absolutely, I buy $10,000 every year for now. This is most of my eFund outside of a few thousand in the bank.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Nov 06, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you buying I bonds in 2014? And if so, for what role?
Replies: 46
Views: 5515

Re: AA...any other crazy 80/20 folks out there?

Age 32 with 80/20 and 50/50 international. However, I have a larger than normal efund at about 16 months of expenses. I will go to 75/25 when I turn 35 and possibly change US/International based on global weightings. I tend to be conservative, but also need to take some risk as I work in an industry...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA...any other crazy 80/20 folks out there?
Replies: 57
Views: 4977

Re: Peer to peer lending as a investment

Quite risky but potentially more fun than other "play money" investments because you can really pick and choose your loans.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Nov 04, 2014 6:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending as a investment
Replies: 22
Views: 1998

Re: What's worrying Vanguard's CEO

I respect his opinion but I am not sure why we place any weight on predictions being bogleheads? We have all seen how wrong these can be even from prize winning economists. Thank you for saying this. The future returns are simply unknowable as there are too many geopolitical events that can happen ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's worrying Vanguard's CEO
Replies: 14
Views: 2795

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX)

No because stocks that do poorly are not automatically due for a rebound. Instead, they may be doing poorly because the companies are in decline. I expect this fund could actually be closed some day or changed substantially.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX)
Replies: 6
Views: 871

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

It would be a lot more fun to have a fund that invests in all parts of the precious metals world, mining, jewelry retail/collectible coins, and and some of the metals too.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 79
Views: 10417

Re: Why do $0.00 accounts show on my Vanguard page?

I have had the same issue with some older funds that I sold out of. Just the other day two of the three zero balance funds went away, I would guess it takes perhaps 16 months or so for them to clear. Hopefully the last will go away too, that will confirm the time frame.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do $0.00 accounts show on my Vanguard page?
Replies: 8
Views: 1074

Re: Income Supplement

Risk free? CDs, he will get about $50 per month but remember that nominal capital preservation does not mean inflation won't take a major slice.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Income Supplement
Replies: 26
Views: 827

Re: 25% TLT 25% SHY 25%VT 25%IAU

25% gold seems very risky.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25% TLT 25% SHY 25%VT 25%IAU
Replies: 5
Views: 612

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

How much of that spectacular early 2000s performance can be traced back to a few stocks like "Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) 5%" that happened to do exceptionally well then but never recovered after the recession? I don't see why we would expect the same thing to happen again. That one st...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 79
Views: 10417

Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

ArthurO wrote:
technovelist wrote:My planning assumption is 0% real return. Anything above that is a bonus.


if you will be OK with 0% real why not just do CDs, like 10 or 20 years, brokered, and you will get the inflation return with no risk....


Because of taking risk for a chance at beating 0%
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2395

Re: Risk in a high dividend stock portfolio

Go to page 8 to find companies even close to safe, and of course by then they are only offering 6%, a return you could hope to get from a total stock market mutual fund. If you really want to do this, I would pick as many stocks as possible between page 8 and 14 including a few like AT&T, Mattel...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk in a high dividend stock portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2634

Re: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome

The Dow is a pretty outdated index, firstly, and that is clear when a bad day for IBM can skew it so much. Secondly it is overdue for a 10 fold reduction so that people don't freak out about a 200 point change. +/- 200 points doesn't mean much anymore. Drop the Dow entirely or at least take it down ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome
Replies: 25
Views: 2131

Re: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?

Just to emphasize the point, they are way wrong and not acting in your best interests here at all. Not only would I ignore the advice, I would personally (just personally) stop seeking their advice at all as I did with the kind but totally uninformed adviser at Chase bank. Just as a test, see if the...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?
Replies: 35
Views: 2264

Re: Re-entering market - all at once, or over time?

Factors that "spook" me a little (i.e. more than offset my never ending optimism) I agree that some of these factors are worth worrying about. But that may not have much bearing on investing choices. Consider the world of 1979... hardly a happy time globally or domestically. Yet it was an...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-entering market - all at once, or over time?
Replies: 13
Views: 962

Re: Siren song of increased stock allocation

I don't get it... stocks drop and then you sell?
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Siren song of increased stock allocation
Replies: 38
Views: 3001

Re: Investments through Valic

Looks like an inexpensive plan and 6% match is great. I do think you are going way too heavy on the mid and small cap, since you already have a good S&P 500 fund in there. Is it the case that the market cap of mid and small cap is equal to the large cap? In any event, it is too bad they don't ju...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investments through Valic
Replies: 2
Views: 299

Re: Japan, 1989

Starting in 1989 is misleading because that is the peak of an almost unprecedented asset bubble. A person who had 250,000 in 1982 may have had 1,000,000 in 1989. Then they saw it drop to only 500,000 after the prolonged bear market. How many people put all their money in to the market in 1989 alone?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan, 1989
Replies: 118
Views: 26525

Re: it will take me about 38 years to reach $1M at this rate

Rethink that $5500 a year figure. I don't earn much at all (nonprofit informal education) and live in NYC. Yet I save about half my income every year, which is several times more than you are saving at this point. Not to be critical in any way, but can you find new sources of income or reduce the sp...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: it will take me about 38 years to reach $1M at this rate
Replies: 25
Views: 3360

Re: Is VNQ over-valued at 36x P/E?

Yes Reits are getting a bit overheated now, just like real estate is in many areas. However, they have been higher. It won't calm you much to know that they have only been a bit higher, and that was just before the great recession. Yet all the same, that indicates that (with inflation) there is stil...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VNQ over-valued at 36x P/E?
Replies: 14
Views: 1476

Re: Lending club interest rate risk

EmergDoc wrote:The interest rate risk is nothing compared to the credit risk for these notes.


Right, these are generally pretty short with very high interest rates, and high default rates too.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending club interest rate risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1261

Re: A good day to be in heavy in Bonds --- 10-7-2014....

Today was a good day for all assets imho. Bonds are up too, .09% for total bond.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A good day to be in heavy in Bonds --- 10-7-2014....
Replies: 28
Views: 3434

Re: Getting back into the martket

The blunt but honest answer is that you should not invest in stocks at all. You don't have the grit for it and would do less damage staying in cash such as CDs. Maybe that means working part time for another 10 years, that depends on your needs. There is no shame in honestly deciding that investing ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting back into the market
Replies: 32
Views: 4735

Re: 4% market drop causes huge drop in sentiment

Biweekly 401K purchase coming up. Happy to be below 2K.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% market drop causes huge drop in sentiment
Replies: 22
Views: 5480

Re: Helping dad with his 401k

I would also float the idea, no matter how depressing, of retiring at 70 instead. Maybe moving the target back will hurt the savings rate. Perhaps you can say retire at 66 but save 50% of income every year or keep up the status quo and retire at 70.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping dad with his 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 1837

Re: Just need to vent

Tons of redundancy and high ERs, but on the plus side they still probably made decent money on these investments. Not as much as they could have, and that is maddening, but they made something. Not quite as bad as going with a fraud like Madoff and losing money. The annuities are probably worse, IMH...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just need to vent
Replies: 16
Views: 3566
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