Search found 796 matches

by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
Replies: 37
Views: 2989

Re: Greece or Puerto Rico?

It seems unlikely that any nation could ever recover from debt of many years of GDP. They can perhaps kick it down the road for a long time, decades, but in the long run... Maybe with sudden and intense inflation? In any event, the big difference here is the fact that PR can always be covered by the...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 150
Views: 12980

Re: Greece impact on US markets Monday morning

Actually comes at a perfect time since I have to rebalance about now anyway.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 27, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3855

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

rca1824 wrote:
z3r0c00l wrote:My broken record line is required here; run the historical simulation for Japan.


Why would I invest 100% in a single country. I use global cap weights.



Okay, then run it for 1929.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go
Replies: 52
Views: 4921

Re: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go

What if we derive satisfaction from hearing you plan to pay this down right away? Having such a small amount left would drive me crazy, would rather just get it over with.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26174

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

On almost exactly the date this thread started, I increased international stocks to 60% of equities - it wasn't because of this thread, or PE10 specifically, but that was probably part of the consideration. I consider it a long term decision, and have no plans to change anything. That said... my ti...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?
Replies: 21
Views: 2665

Re: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?

yellowgirl wrote:Off topic, not sure if this is true but I heard doctors that studied at Caribbean medical schools are usually not good or less than average?


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/03/educa ... .html?_r=0
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3855

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

My broken record line is required here; run the historical simulation for Japan.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18988

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Purchased my first Vanguard fund within days of the very bottom of the market, $3000 worth of total stock market. A great buy of course, but I sadly did not have enough money or risk tolerance at the time to buy any more than that. In retrospect, I should have dumped my entire emergency fund into st...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High growth and low low low risk alternatives for hard earned money (after tax)
Replies: 7
Views: 1112

Re: High growth and low low low risk alternatives for hard earned money (after tax)

CDs, iBonds, and online savings accounts are the only safe bets. They don't offer high growth or really any growth at all after inflation. The best you can hope for is about a zero net return after taxes and inflation, savings accounts won't even get you that much. There simply is no way around the ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?
Replies: 34
Views: 4518

Re: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?

Because it's not enough that they exist... they also have to be undiscovered by a LOT of very smart people whose entire livelihood depend on finding relatively sure bets with high possibility of upside and low potential for downside... In fact those people spend 10-12 hours a day looking for such t...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 21, 2015 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 5844

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

sls239 wrote:There are lots of parts of the economy that don't show up on the stock markets - in addition to non-profits and government, law firms and medical practices come to mind.


I always wanted a 20% tilt towards NGOs and charities in particular, that is where the big profits are! : )
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA if uncertain of job stability in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1178

Re: AA if uncertain of job stability in next 10 years

I would keep AA at the most aggressive you can stomach, maybe 60/40, and then increase the emergency fund instead until you feel safe. I personally keep about 16 months of expenses, that was the median unemployment period for my cohort. There would be no harm in keeping even 2 years, imho. I would n...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation - Continuous Change
Replies: 6
Views: 1169

Re: Bond Allocation - Continuous Change

I would find these changes too minute to worry about. No need, imho, to worry about less than 5% much less 1% changes in asset allocation. I do age - 10 rounding down with a resolution of 5%. So 20% until I get to 35 then it is 25%. Even that feels like a minor shift. There will be daily shifts of ....
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5005

Re: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

50/50... I like those odds!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on choosing a Vanguard bond fund
Replies: 20
Views: 2866

Re: Advice on choosing a Vanguard bond fund

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares (VBTIX) 0.06%

You have the best bond mutual fund possible there, I would use it.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5005

Re: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

Wait until Thursday or whenever the default actually happens, then we will see if it is priced in or not. I am guessing not.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The world's cheapest stock markets 2015
Replies: 21
Views: 3543

Re: The world's cheapest stock markets 2015

Back before I was a Boglehead, I bought the T Rowe Price Japan Fund on the theory that it had underperformed for years and it was due to have a good year. :oops: Still waiting for a good year! Glad I cut my losses and bought the Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth fund, all those many years ago. Up 100% s...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market
Replies: 41
Views: 4175

Re: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market

We know that there are winning scratch-off lottery tickets out there. The ideal thing would be to only buy winning tickets and skip all the losers. Since we can't do that with stocks, the best we can do is buy all of the stocks and (unlike lotto) get the average return of the market, which has been ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How risky is real estate (especially New York City real estate)?
Replies: 26
Views: 3475

Re: How risky is real estate (especially New York City real estate)?

Solid 2 BRs in Windsor Terrace for 600s. I think you should shop around more if you really want to buy. I personally have no intention of buying any time soon, the math just doesn't add up unless you know you want to stay for 10+ years in one place.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWESX (vanguard Long term investment grade)
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: VWESX (vanguard Long term investment grade)

Always read the information provided about a fund before buying it! : ) "Moderate funds—Risk level 3 Risk level three Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relativ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond market in near future
Replies: 19
Views: 2612

Re: bond market in near future

Although asset allocation is a personal choice, I would go with 60/40 stocks and bonds myself at your age.
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why reinvest dividends?
Replies: 13
Views: 1840

Re: Why reinvest dividends?

I also do this simply because it is easy. One less thing to worry about. The money would be invested eventually, why not right away and on autopilot?
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming Economic Bubble
Replies: 45
Views: 6536

Re: Upcoming Economic Bubble

I have "The Crash of 2016" by Tom Hartman in my large pile of books to read. Unclear if it is better to read now, in 2015, or wait for the predictions to not come true so that it is a more relaxing read in 2017. What is clear is that I would never trust the predictions of any individual bo...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be possible? [Not lose money during 2008 crash]
Replies: 57
Views: 6309

Re: Can this be possible?

Is it more probable that nature should go out of her course or that a man could tell a lie? We have never seen, in our time, nature go out of her course. But we have good reason to believe that millions of lies have been told in the same time. It is therefore millions to one that the reporter of a ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 30, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be possible? [Not lose money during 2008 crash]
Replies: 57
Views: 6309

Re: Can this be possible?

The most likely answer is that they are lying.
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 28, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads and international bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 1491

Re: Bogleheads and international bonds

Those who got in on the new vanguard international bond fund at the start got a lucky capital gain recently. But now, with the fund offering .95%, or less than an Ally savings account, there is really no apparent reason for an individual to hold this fund. I would like to see someone who holds this ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 23, 2015 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put extra cash? CD's dont make sense
Replies: 7
Views: 1746

Re: Where to put extra cash? CD's dont make sense

CDs do make sense. Considering the low rate of inflation, 2% on a 5 year CD is not that horrible. Don't look back at a time with 5% inflation, and 7% CDs, as much better. You earn next to nothing on investments that are this safe, for obvious reasons.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 22, 2015 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?
Replies: 37
Views: 2718

Re: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?

CABob wrote:the US economy affects me the most for better or worse.


That sounds like a strong reason to own no more than the market cap of US stocks then.
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 10, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2780

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

1) if you invest in the total market a single company, or even a bunch of them, going bankrupt is not a bad thing. It is a good thing, because it helps improve the overall market. Whether Apple lasts forever doesn't matter for total-market investors. Right, just ask all of those people who have mas...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 09, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: move to cash for upcoming bear market?
Replies: 68
Views: 8563

Re: move to cash for upcoming bear market?

TP gives some good reasons to hope for another 50% in stocks before anything serious happens. There are many tail winds including low oil and low interest rates, not to mention improving employment conditions. In the long run, as long as there are no major political problems, there is reason to hope...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 09, 2015 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1928

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

VWELX Wellington Investor shares ER=0.26 VWENX Wellington Admiral shares ER=0.18 looks to me like the ER are pretty good with Wellington..... .18 is about 3x the cost of a total bond/total stock mix, even though both are quite low. Note that the threshold to get to admiral is 5x higher with Welling...
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 08, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MA slow to use my check? should I do something?
Replies: 19
Views: 2187

Re: MA slow to use my check? should I do something?

Worry more about the implications for government efficiency! Not much to be done about that.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 08, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1928

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

A slightly different fund could be made with total stock and total bond for around 1/3rd the ER of Wellington.
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 05, 2015 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2780

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

Why do you want dividends? Seems foolish to me. I hate dividends. It's the most tax inefficient way to give money to shareholders. Because any increase in share price is potentially, even likely to be temporary over the course of decades. Kodak is a great example of this. Anyone who didn't take div...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2780

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

VTSAX pays almost as much in dividends as VBTLX. Lots of companies are going to be paying more in dividends (notably Apple, a significant chunk of this fund) and so they may increase some in the future. But the name of the game with stocks is increase in share price not dividends. This is a tax issu...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Claims Title of World’s Largest Bond Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 2403

Re: Vanguard Claims Title of World’s Largest Bond Fund

Possibly the best mutual fund out there. About time people noticed!
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jumping to Catch Dividends in Mutual Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 442

Re: Jumping to Catch Dividends in Mutual Funds

Similarly, don't buy stocks hoping for a stock split. I have heard that strategy many times too. Lots of people actually think that a stock split means you double your money on a lucky day when the company decides to double it's market cap. If it were this easy, or even remotely possible, 10 billion...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 03, 2015 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's Buying I Bonds Now?
Replies: 39
Views: 3169

Re: New I bond rates out - not good news

And they could be purchased with credit cards too, no?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIGIX unbalanced? [Vanguard Growth Index]
Replies: 20
Views: 1157

Re: VIGIX unbalanced?

I agree that this fund is way too focused on a small number of stocks. Far better to own the total stock fund where the top 10 are only 14%, and apple is a bit more than 3%. But the underlying cap weighted concept is sound. The focus on large cap growth may not be so sound.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1886

Re: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?

Yes, that too. Here's some other research for those not watching Mel Gibson flicks for hints- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation Insurance is not a bad thing, except when involving things you don't want to con...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1886

Re: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?

A small amount (say 5%) wouldn't hurt for insurance purposes, such as the collapse of the financial system. Almost happened in 2008, and historically it's happened to a number of countries. Black swans can happen. Not sure how one cashes in a gold mutual fund after the world economy collapses. Do y...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-Bonds/TIPs:When interest rate rises, inflation is lowered?
Replies: 5
Views: 924

Re: I-Bonds/TIPs:When interest rate rises, inflation is lowe

Rate changes are like easing off the gas a mile down the road in anticipation of traffic, or easing on the gas in anticipation of traffic opening up a mile down the road. They simply can't wait for conditions to get out of hand before making the change, and so they try to anticipate. Rates have to c...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JABAX Capital gain and dump or not?
Replies: 4
Views: 403

Re: JABAX Capital gain and dump or not?

Sell it for several reasons. The biggest being the answer to the following question: would you buy it today? If the answer is no, that is all you need. However, the high expense ratio and the relative outperformance are all good reasons to sell too. It has done above average, you got lucky. As did o...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay
Replies: 14
Views: 1386

Re: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay

I don't own any of this fund, but.... One year return: VTIBX: 8.68% TBM: 5.49% My guess is that in the long run, it won't make a difference, but I don't pretend to be a seer. You have to know why it did so well in the past year; a one time drop in interest rates to near record lows. I can't imagine...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay
Replies: 14
Views: 1386

Re: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay

An SEC .75% yield can be beaten by cash these days, so I don't see the purpose of owning this bond fund. Last year it didn't seem so great to me either, but at least one could have held it for a short period and made 10% on the ZIRP. If you did that, I would sell now and take the lucky bump. Once th...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Assets
Replies: 54
Views: 3601

Re: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Ass

fsrph wrote:3.5% real. I guess I could have already done this when I bond's had that as the fixed rate.

Francis


Yes if I ever go back in time I will tell 18 year old me to start buying these with a credit card...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2331

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

They would need a combined rate greater than 0% on I Bonds, in order to sell any. In other words they'd have to increase the fixed rate. At least that's what you'd think. But maybe they're not really interested in selling I Bonds. I was thinking the same way but then someone noted that if there is ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing with Betterment
Replies: 10
Views: 1287

Re: Investing with Betterment

If you can't scratch up $3000, you really shouldn't invest outside of a 401K with company matching. An emergency fund is really crucial. One bad stretch with credit card debt and you have lost a decade of investment returns. Safety first, investing later.

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