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Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

ArthurO wrote:
technovelist wrote:My planning assumption is 0% real return. Anything above that is a bonus.


if you will be OK with 0% real why not just do CDs, like 10 or 20 years, brokered, and you will get the inflation return with no risk....


Because of taking risk for a chance at beating 0%
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2220

Re: Risk in a high dividend stock portfolio

Go to page 8 to find companies even close to safe, and of course by then they are only offering 6%, a return you could hope to get from a total stock market mutual fund. If you really want to do this, I would pick as many stocks as possible between page 8 and 14 including a few like AT&T, Mattel...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk in a high dividend stock portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 1932

Re: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome

The Dow is a pretty outdated index, firstly, and that is clear when a bad day for IBM can skew it so much. Secondly it is overdue for a 10 fold reduction so that people don't freak out about a 200 point change. +/- 200 points doesn't mean much anymore. Drop the Dow entirely or at least take it down ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome
Replies: 25
Views: 2085

Re: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?

Just to emphasize the point, they are way wrong and not acting in your best interests here at all. Not only would I ignore the advice, I would personally (just personally) stop seeking their advice at all as I did with the kind but totally uninformed adviser at Chase bank. Just as a test, see if the...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?
Replies: 35
Views: 2052

Re: Re-entering market - all at once, or over time?

Factors that "spook" me a little (i.e. more than offset my never ending optimism) I agree that some of these factors are worth worrying about. But that may not have much bearing on investing choices. Consider the world of 1979... hardly a happy time globally or domestically. Yet it was an...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-entering market - all at once, or over time?
Replies: 13
Views: 925

Re: Siren song of increased stock allocation

I don't get it... stocks drop and then you sell?
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Siren song of increased stock allocation
Replies: 38
Views: 2898

Re: Investments through Valic

Looks like an inexpensive plan and 6% match is great. I do think you are going way too heavy on the mid and small cap, since you already have a good S&P 500 fund in there. Is it the case that the market cap of mid and small cap is equal to the large cap? In any event, it is too bad they don't ju...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investments through Valic
Replies: 2
Views: 282

Re: Japan, 1989

Starting in 1989 is misleading because that is the peak of an almost unprecedented asset bubble. A person who had 250,000 in 1982 may have had 1,000,000 in 1989. Then they saw it drop to only 500,000 after the prolonged bear market. How many people put all their money in to the market in 1989 alone?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan, 1989
Replies: 118
Views: 25913

Re: it will take me about 38 years to reach $1M at this rate

Rethink that $5500 a year figure. I don't earn much at all (nonprofit informal education) and live in NYC. Yet I save about half my income every year, which is several times more than you are saving at this point. Not to be critical in any way, but can you find new sources of income or reduce the sp...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: it will take me about 38 years to reach $1M at this rate
Replies: 25
Views: 3137

Re: Is VNQ over-valued at 36x P/E?

Yes Reits are getting a bit overheated now, just like real estate is in many areas. However, they have been higher. It won't calm you much to know that they have only been a bit higher, and that was just before the great recession. Yet all the same, that indicates that (with inflation) there is stil...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VNQ over-valued at 36x P/E?
Replies: 14
Views: 1387

Re: Lending club interest rate risk

EmergDoc wrote:The interest rate risk is nothing compared to the credit risk for these notes.


Right, these are generally pretty short with very high interest rates, and high default rates too.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending club interest rate risk
Replies: 12
Views: 790

Re: A good day to be in heavy in Bonds --- 10-7-2014....

Today was a good day for all assets imho. Bonds are up too, .09% for total bond.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A good day to be in heavy in Bonds --- 10-7-2014....
Replies: 28
Views: 3391

Re: Getting back into the martket

The blunt but honest answer is that you should not invest in stocks at all. You don't have the grit for it and would do less damage staying in cash such as CDs. Maybe that means working part time for another 10 years, that depends on your needs. There is no shame in honestly deciding that investing ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 07, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting back into the market
Replies: 32
Views: 3827

Re: 4% market drop causes huge drop in sentiment

Biweekly 401K purchase coming up. Happy to be below 2K.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 07, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% market drop causes huge drop in sentiment
Replies: 22
Views: 5110

Re: Helping dad with his 401k

I would also float the idea, no matter how depressing, of retiring at 70 instead. Maybe moving the target back will hurt the savings rate. Perhaps you can say retire at 66 but save 50% of income every year or keep up the status quo and retire at 70.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping dad with his 401k
Replies: 21
Views: 1592

Re: Just need to vent

Tons of redundancy and high ERs, but on the plus side they still probably made decent money on these investments. Not as much as they could have, and that is maddening, but they made something. Not quite as bad as going with a fraud like Madoff and losing money. The annuities are probably worse, IMH...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just need to vent
Replies: 16
Views: 3477

Re: Sector Funds

Why bother with the complexity and extra expense of so many funds when an index can have them all in the proper market caps? I think lots of people do it because they presume they are smarter than the market or can pick better sectors. I can assure that while it is possible to get lucky, the odds ar...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 05, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sector Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 552

Re: New IPO

Why do you automatically expect this ipo to do well? IPOs don't work well, on average, for individual investors. Incidentally, the restaurants while popular are pretty crummy to wit food quality. They are a pain in the behind to eat at and few non-tourists go to them. Consider that a possible downsi...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New IPO
Replies: 9
Views: 471

Re: Best place to park my emergency funds

I also like ibonds, but it takes several years to build up enough (10K per year) and to get that money liquid, a minimum of 12 months for any given contribution and I suppose the full 5 years if you want no penalty liquidity. In January I will have completed my ibond Efund with 12 months of expenses...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to park my emergency funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1885

Re: Buying more when markets are down

I was a young buck in march 2009 and I was more excited than ever about investing. Turned out to be true too, I seriously doubt we will see those levels ever again. Sadly I didn't have much to invest then. For some of us the hard part is not getting too excited when stocks drop.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying more when markets are down
Replies: 61
Views: 5153

Re: should participate in employer matches?

Skpetic, can you tell us what the investment options are?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should participate in employer matches?
Replies: 20
Views: 1478

Re: 'Play Money' - why 5%?

There really is no reason, it is just the figure that many people arbitrarily agree upon, like age in bonds or age-10 in bonds. It happens to be the area where many people are comfortable, the only way to understand it would be to understand the complex interplay between our culture and the human br...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 28, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Play Money' - why 5%?
Replies: 42
Views: 1654

Re: R u selling PIMCO bond fund

I wouldn't particularly select that fund with or without Gross, but if I had to use it or already wanted it, the change shouldn't matter much. If anything, the lack of a celebrity manager could let the fund relax a bit and focus more on following the market rather than trying to beat it. I would cer...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 28, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: R u selling PIMCO bond fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2753

Re: Will Investment Returns Ever Revert to "Normal"?

So now that we have moved from a emerging market to a developed one you expect higher returns?:) The US was never an emerging market. It's more likely just noise, with the wars and Great Depression contributing too. I would definitely say the US was an emerging market in the early parts of the 1800...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Investment Returns Ever Revert to "Normal"?
Replies: 56
Views: 4486

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

Janus has a not so great history, and the mutual fund he is going to run has what a 1% ER overall or something nutso like that? On top of it all, I see bond funds as intended to be safe and stable. His methods don't jibe with those expectations. I will gladly give up some performance for a .08 ER an...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 5917

Re: Unexpected Emergency

campy2010 wrote:I would put an unexpected large medical expenses on a 0% interest credit card. I've seen some promotions at 0% interest for as long as 18 months. Pay it off over time and preserve the EF and 401k.


You have a $250,000 credit line?
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Emergency
Replies: 33
Views: 3301

Re: Is Now a Good time to Buy Bonds ???

I'm 37 years old, and 95% in stocks index funds. I eventually want to get to 80/20 by age 40... But we are nearing the end of a long bull market for bonds. Is now a good time to buy, knowing that bond funds will fall soon? If someone knew the answer to this with confidence, they would not tell anyo...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Now a Good time to Buy Bonds ???
Replies: 19
Views: 1872

Re: Buy today or stick to plan?

Going a bit early on a RBD doesn't do much harm directly, but if it causes you to slip further and further from the investment plan, and causes you to time the market more and more, it is a problem.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy today or stick to plan?
Replies: 29
Views: 2858

Re: Total bond index or 5 yr CD?

I prefer iBonds to the CD because they dynamically adjust rate to keep up with inflation; they start out locked for 12 months, then become a 5 year CD until year 5 and ultimately a CD with no penalties at all, in effect. However the $10,000 a year limitation is a big one. I keep short CDs for my efu...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total bond index or 5 yr CD?
Replies: 36
Views: 2851

Re: AliBaba

Getting a big chunk of China business this way is great, but I can't help seeing parallels between the China of today and Japan of 1989. So the exciting thing about AliBaba would be if they make a solid go of it in Europe and the US.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 128
Views: 8484

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

There is no shame in admitting that you don't have the nerve for investing. Instead, you can put your money in CDs and just work harder or longer. Could potentially do less damage that way.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6583

Re: How much you need to save as multiple of salary

Maybe I don't earn that much but by the time I am 35 I would expect to have at least 5x annual salary saved. Anything less would feel short of the mark.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much you need to save as multiple of salary
Replies: 51
Views: 6371

Re: Why Invest in Bonds in your early 30s?

How would you feel if 40% of your life savings evaporated? Or 90%. Because that is the worst case scenario of going all in 100% stocks at the worst time in 1929. Of course that magnitude of drop took some time to build in, and recovery was slow but significant by 8 years later. Still, how many woul...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Invest in Bonds in your early 30s?
Replies: 43
Views: 3640

Re: Am I in over my head?

I am 19 and received $250,000, currently have a paid off car and no job but I basically live for free. Everyone keeps telling me I should just speak with Financial Advisors and find one who has been doing it for a long time. I feel like I could just make a Vanguard account and do something like 40%...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I in over my head?
Replies: 51
Views: 4719

Re: CD Rate ?

right, .25 = 25%
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Rate ?
Replies: 3
Views: 416

Re: Do i need to invest in bonds?

Way too focused on a small economy upon which other factors of your life also depend. As a US citizen, one could make the strongest case for not needing international allocation. And I still suggest market cap or about 50/50. Even today, markets do not always move in unison. Why would one invest onl...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do i need to invest in bonds?
Replies: 11
Views: 1118

Re: VDE [for 5% "casino money"?]

I wouldn't call that gambling, perhaps a slight tilt. I would do VGPMX - precious metals, but that fund is such a stinker this decade, basically returning minimally over 15 years, with extremely large dividends. Holding actual metals at home would have been better. Would it not be more fun and risk ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDE [for 5% "casino money"?]
Replies: 11
Views: 966

Re: POLL: What was the first stock you ever bought?

Never purchased a single stock or smoked a cig. Would only own stock if I worked at a company with ESPP.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 05, 2014 6:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: What was the first stock you ever bought?
Replies: 74
Views: 2914

Re: struggling to understand "bond crash"

A bad year for bonds = a bad day for stocks. Something to keep in mind.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 04, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: struggling to understand "bond crash"
Replies: 13
Views: 2093

Re: So, when does a market timer get back in?

I was very tempted to buy $4000 during this dip, would have made a cool 4% return to date or so, $150... Held out for the scheduled quarterly purchase and rebalance plan. Of course the shares already owned made many times this amount. Timers will get back in after the next recession; SP 500 will go ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 04, 2014 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, when does a market timer get back in?
Replies: 54
Views: 5639

Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- S&P 500 Index at record 2000

Unfortunately I think these 7 will not win. It is either going up or down from here! : )
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- S&P 500 Index at record 2000
Replies: 4
Views: 891

Re: What 5 stocks can I own forever?

Kodak, Tennessee Coal Iron and RR, US Rubber, American Cotton Oil, Facebook.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What 5 stocks can I own forever?
Replies: 58
Views: 4707

Re: S&P500 over 2000

Doctor Shiller's predictions From CNBC dated 31 December 2010 - Using long term analysis, Professor Robert Shiller, macromarkets chief economist at Yale University and the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, told CNBC on Friday that the S&P 500 may reach 1430 by the year 20...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 68
Views: 5521

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

For my system? I should have had started with 5% bonds at age 15.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3873

Re: Downsizing emergency fund

Don't just worry about the risk of putting some of this money in stocks and bonds, worry also about the risk of inflation.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Downsizing emergency fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1435

Re: Playing Millenial Student Debt

I don't find this information reliable enough or, even if reliable, actionable in any particular way. More important than what happens to middle class millenials who delay buying a home, worry about the impact on the economy from having 50 million Americans below the poverty line. The action there i...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing Millenial Student Debt
Replies: 5
Views: 666

Re: What to tell friends who think "it's all a scam"

I much prefer to wait it out and see their remorse after stocks continue to be the best investment around for decades. Then again, I enjoy a touch of schadenfreude at the expense of conspiracy thinkers. E.g. the gold bugs of the past 5 years.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to tell friends who think "it's all a scam"
Replies: 64
Views: 5833

Re: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]

Stocks now down to where they were in late May. If you simply purchased back in early May, instead of waiting for an RBD... Better yet in April, or March. The RBD concept = buying on the dips. It has no basis in mathematical reality and is one of many schemes that seeks to out think the market. It t...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 49
Views: 5247

Re: Goodbye and Good Luck!

M_to_the_G wrote:banned three times... wha? huh? stayed too long trying to pay it forward? refocus energies on something other then personal finance?

I don't get it...


Wants to spend more time with family.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Goodbye and Good Luck!
Replies: 12
Views: 2714
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