Search found 804 matches

by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 4588

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

If you're merely niggling the tense then keep in mind I was referring to an established historical period (1985-2014) and in that time frame the portfolio w/REIT 'is' superior. I don't know that it is just pedanticism in this instance. We cannot speak about a period of time in the past without sayi...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you keep/park your emergency fund?
Replies: 49
Views: 4878

Re: Where do you keep/park your emergency fund?

Checking account (zero interest), Savings account (low interest), CD while waiting to buy iBonds, iBonds account for most of my eFund. Soon the iBonds will keep pace with inflation at my full eFund need and then all new money will go into the investments. Of course 20% of my AA is in a bond fund, bu...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 4588

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

FillorKill wrote:simply swapping REIT for HY results in a portfolio that is clearly superior.


That WAS clearly superior. Is/will be are not especially forecastable.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 29
Views: 4733

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

Down another 15% from the time this thread started, and down 25% off a recent high of $10. Wouldn't be shocked to see it hit $5 soon. Or it could go to $40 in a year. Steer clear big tuna, head for open index waters.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Huge Mistake, Bought PBYI, Now What?
Replies: 26
Views: 3425

Re: Huge Mistake, Bought PBYI, Now What?

I would hold it for 10 years and then see what it does. That is the point of play money, to take chances on long shots in the hopes of a 1000% return.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 13, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-Savings Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 3934

Re: I-Savings Bonds

Also a 2nd tier to the emergency fund. Buying $10,000 a year until I hit 12 months of expenses (later this year). Will hold off on getting any more at that point probably.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 02, 2015 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: invest some or keep in cash - emergency fund
Replies: 8
Views: 917

Re: invest some or keep in cash - emergency fund

If $35,000 is enough, then $60,000 is too much. I would DCA that money into your regular investments. If you want to split the difference, put the money in bonds giving you a slightly more conservative AA but still more risky/rewardy than cash.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jul 01, 2015 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Horrible fund choices
Replies: 9
Views: 955

Re: Horrible fund choices

Here's hoping that they will at least add the option of a self managed account, say with a $100 a year fee or something. Maybe they will even be convinced to offer better options some day but that is not so likely. Do you think it may be too soon to contact HR about this since you just started? Mayb...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
Replies: 37
Views: 3464

Re: Greece or Puerto Rico?

It seems unlikely that any nation could ever recover from debt of many years of GDP. They can perhaps kick it down the road for a long time, decades, but in the long run... Maybe with sudden and intense inflation? In any event, the big difference here is the fact that PR can always be covered by the...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 25883

Re: Greece impact on US markets Monday morning

Actually comes at a perfect time since I have to rebalance about now anyway.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 27, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 4146

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

rca1824 wrote:
z3r0c00l wrote:My broken record line is required here; run the historical simulation for Japan.


Why would I invest 100% in a single country. I use global cap weights.



Okay, then run it for 1929.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go
Replies: 52
Views: 5533

Re: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go

What if we derive satisfaction from hearing you plan to pay this down right away? Having such a small amount left would drive me crazy, would rather just get it over with.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26979

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

On almost exactly the date this thread started, I increased international stocks to 60% of equities - it wasn't because of this thread, or PE10 specifically, but that was probably part of the consideration. I consider it a long term decision, and have no plans to change anything. That said... my ti...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?
Replies: 21
Views: 2883

Re: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?

yellowgirl wrote:Off topic, not sure if this is true but I heard doctors that studied at Caribbean medical schools are usually not good or less than average?


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/03/educa ... .html?_r=0
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 4146

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

My broken record line is required here; run the historical simulation for Japan.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 23804

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Purchased my first Vanguard fund within days of the very bottom of the market, $3000 worth of total stock market. A great buy of course, but I sadly did not have enough money or risk tolerance at the time to buy any more than that. In retrospect, I should have dumped my entire emergency fund into st...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High growth and low low low risk alternatives for hard earned money (after tax)
Replies: 7
Views: 1148

Re: High growth and low low low risk alternatives for hard earned money (after tax)

CDs, iBonds, and online savings accounts are the only safe bets. They don't offer high growth or really any growth at all after inflation. The best you can hope for is about a zero net return after taxes and inflation, savings accounts won't even get you that much. There simply is no way around the ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?
Replies: 34
Views: 4909

Re: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?

Because it's not enough that they exist... they also have to be undiscovered by a LOT of very smart people whose entire livelihood depend on finding relatively sure bets with high possibility of upside and low potential for downside... In fact those people spend 10-12 hours a day looking for such t...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jun 21, 2015 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 6077

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

sls239 wrote:There are lots of parts of the economy that don't show up on the stock markets - in addition to non-profits and government, law firms and medical practices come to mind.


I always wanted a 20% tilt towards NGOs and charities in particular, that is where the big profits are! : )
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA if uncertain of job stability in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1216

Re: AA if uncertain of job stability in next 10 years

I would keep AA at the most aggressive you can stomach, maybe 60/40, and then increase the emergency fund instead until you feel safe. I personally keep about 16 months of expenses, that was the median unemployment period for my cohort. There would be no harm in keeping even 2 years, imho. I would n...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation - Continuous Change
Replies: 6
Views: 1195

Re: Bond Allocation - Continuous Change

I would find these changes too minute to worry about. No need, imho, to worry about less than 5% much less 1% changes in asset allocation. I do age - 10 rounding down with a resolution of 5%. So 20% until I get to 35 then it is 25%. Even that feels like a minor shift. There will be daily shifts of ....
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5113

Re: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

50/50... I like those odds!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on choosing a Vanguard bond fund
Replies: 20
Views: 2986

Re: Advice on choosing a Vanguard bond fund

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares (VBTIX) 0.06%

You have the best bond mutual fund possible there, I would use it.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5113

Re: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

Wait until Thursday or whenever the default actually happens, then we will see if it is priced in or not. I am guessing not.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The world's cheapest stock markets 2015
Replies: 21
Views: 3619

Re: The world's cheapest stock markets 2015

Back before I was a Boglehead, I bought the T Rowe Price Japan Fund on the theory that it had underperformed for years and it was due to have a good year. :oops: Still waiting for a good year! Glad I cut my losses and bought the Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth fund, all those many years ago. Up 100% s...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market
Replies: 41
Views: 4374

Re: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market

We know that there are winning scratch-off lottery tickets out there. The ideal thing would be to only buy winning tickets and skip all the losers. Since we can't do that with stocks, the best we can do is buy all of the stocks and (unlike lotto) get the average return of the market, which has been ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How risky is real estate (especially New York City real estate)?
Replies: 26
Views: 3623

Re: How risky is real estate (especially New York City real estate)?

Solid 2 BRs in Windsor Terrace for 600s. I think you should shop around more if you really want to buy. I personally have no intention of buying any time soon, the math just doesn't add up unless you know you want to stay for 10+ years in one place.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWESX (vanguard Long term investment grade)
Replies: 4
Views: 473

Re: VWESX (vanguard Long term investment grade)

Always read the information provided about a fund before buying it! : ) "Moderate funds—Risk level 3 Risk level three Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relativ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond market in near future
Replies: 19
Views: 2701

Re: bond market in near future

Although asset allocation is a personal choice, I would go with 60/40 stocks and bonds myself at your age.
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why reinvest dividends?
Replies: 13
Views: 1865

Re: Why reinvest dividends?

I also do this simply because it is easy. One less thing to worry about. The money would be invested eventually, why not right away and on autopilot?
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming Economic Bubble
Replies: 45
Views: 6732

Re: Upcoming Economic Bubble

I have "The Crash of 2016" by Tom Hartman in my large pile of books to read. Unclear if it is better to read now, in 2015, or wait for the predictions to not come true so that it is a more relaxing read in 2017. What is clear is that I would never trust the predictions of any individual bo...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 31, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be possible? [Not lose money during 2008 crash]
Replies: 57
Views: 6541

Re: Can this be possible?

Is it more probable that nature should go out of her course or that a man could tell a lie? We have never seen, in our time, nature go out of her course. But we have good reason to believe that millions of lies have been told in the same time. It is therefore millions to one that the reporter of a ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 30, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be possible? [Not lose money during 2008 crash]
Replies: 57
Views: 6541

Re: Can this be possible?

The most likely answer is that they are lying.
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 28, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads and international bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 1607

Re: Bogleheads and international bonds

Those who got in on the new vanguard international bond fund at the start got a lucky capital gain recently. But now, with the fund offering .95%, or less than an Ally savings account, there is really no apparent reason for an individual to hold this fund. I would like to see someone who holds this ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 23, 2015 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put extra cash? CD's dont make sense
Replies: 7
Views: 1781

Re: Where to put extra cash? CD's dont make sense

CDs do make sense. Considering the low rate of inflation, 2% on a 5 year CD is not that horrible. Don't look back at a time with 5% inflation, and 7% CDs, as much better. You earn next to nothing on investments that are this safe, for obvious reasons.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 22, 2015 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?
Replies: 37
Views: 2789

Re: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?

CABob wrote:the US economy affects me the most for better or worse.


That sounds like a strong reason to own no more than the market cap of US stocks then.
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 10, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2841

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

1) if you invest in the total market a single company, or even a bunch of them, going bankrupt is not a bad thing. It is a good thing, because it helps improve the overall market. Whether Apple lasts forever doesn't matter for total-market investors. Right, just ask all of those people who have mas...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 09, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: move to cash for upcoming bear market?
Replies: 68
Views: 8711

Re: move to cash for upcoming bear market?

TP gives some good reasons to hope for another 50% in stocks before anything serious happens. There are many tail winds including low oil and low interest rates, not to mention improving employment conditions. In the long run, as long as there are no major political problems, there is reason to hope...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 09, 2015 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1987

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

VWELX Wellington Investor shares ER=0.26 VWENX Wellington Admiral shares ER=0.18 looks to me like the ER are pretty good with Wellington..... .18 is about 3x the cost of a total bond/total stock mix, even though both are quite low. Note that the threshold to get to admiral is 5x higher with Welling...
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 08, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MA slow to use my check? should I do something?
Replies: 19
Views: 2270

Re: MA slow to use my check? should I do something?

Worry more about the implications for government efficiency! Not much to be done about that.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 08, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1987

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

A slightly different fund could be made with total stock and total bond for around 1/3rd the ER of Wellington.
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 05, 2015 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2841

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

Why do you want dividends? Seems foolish to me. I hate dividends. It's the most tax inefficient way to give money to shareholders. Because any increase in share price is potentially, even likely to be temporary over the course of decades. Kodak is a great example of this. Anyone who didn't take div...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2841

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

VTSAX pays almost as much in dividends as VBTLX. Lots of companies are going to be paying more in dividends (notably Apple, a significant chunk of this fund) and so they may increase some in the future. But the name of the game with stocks is increase in share price not dividends. This is a tax issu...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Claims Title of World’s Largest Bond Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 2464

Re: Vanguard Claims Title of World’s Largest Bond Fund

Possibly the best mutual fund out there. About time people noticed!
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jumping to Catch Dividends in Mutual Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Jumping to Catch Dividends in Mutual Funds

Similarly, don't buy stocks hoping for a stock split. I have heard that strategy many times too. Lots of people actually think that a stock split means you double your money on a lucky day when the company decides to double it's market cap. If it were this easy, or even remotely possible, 10 billion...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 03, 2015 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's Buying I Bonds Now?
Replies: 39
Views: 3438

Re: New I bond rates out - not good news

And they could be purchased with credit cards too, no?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIGIX unbalanced? [Vanguard Growth Index]
Replies: 20
Views: 1253

Re: VIGIX unbalanced?

I agree that this fund is way too focused on a small number of stocks. Far better to own the total stock fund where the top 10 are only 14%, and apple is a bit more than 3%. But the underlying cap weighted concept is sound. The focus on large cap growth may not be so sound.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1931

Re: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?

Yes, that too. Here's some other research for those not watching Mel Gibson flicks for hints- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation Insurance is not a bad thing, except when involving things you don't want to con...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1931

Re: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?

A small amount (say 5%) wouldn't hurt for insurance purposes, such as the collapse of the financial system. Almost happened in 2008, and historically it's happened to a number of countries. Black swans can happen. Not sure how one cashes in a gold mutual fund after the world economy collapses. Do y...

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