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by z3r0c00l
Fri May 22, 2015 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?
Replies: 35
Views: 1948

Re: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?

CABob wrote:the US economy affects me the most for better or worse.


That sounds like a strong reason to own no more than the market cap of US stocks then.
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 10, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2592

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

1) if you invest in the total market a single company, or even a bunch of them, going bankrupt is not a bad thing. It is a good thing, because it helps improve the overall market. Whether Apple lasts forever doesn't matter for total-market investors. Right, just ask all of those people who have mas...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 09, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: move to cash for upcoming bear market?
Replies: 68
Views: 7945

Re: move to cash for upcoming bear market?

TP gives some good reasons to hope for another 50% in stocks before anything serious happens. There are many tail winds including low oil and low interest rates, not to mention improving employment conditions. In the long run, as long as there are no major political problems, there is reason to hope...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 09, 2015 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1765

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

VWELX Wellington Investor shares ER=0.26 VWENX Wellington Admiral shares ER=0.18 looks to me like the ER are pretty good with Wellington..... .18 is about 3x the cost of a total bond/total stock mix, even though both are quite low. Note that the threshold to get to admiral is 5x higher with Welling...
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 08, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MA slow to use my check? should I do something?
Replies: 19
Views: 2105

Re: MA slow to use my check? should I do something?

Worry more about the implications for government efficiency! Not much to be done about that.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 08, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1765

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

A slightly different fund could be made with total stock and total bond for around 1/3rd the ER of Wellington.
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 05, 2015 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2592

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

Why do you want dividends? Seems foolish to me. I hate dividends. It's the most tax inefficient way to give money to shareholders. Because any increase in share price is potentially, even likely to be temporary over the course of decades. Kodak is a great example of this. Anyone who didn't take div...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are the dividends with Funds??
Replies: 21
Views: 2592

Re: Where are the dividends with Funds??

VTSAX pays almost as much in dividends as VBTLX. Lots of companies are going to be paying more in dividends (notably Apple, a significant chunk of this fund) and so they may increase some in the future. But the name of the game with stocks is increase in share price not dividends. This is a tax issu...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Claims Title of World’s Largest Bond Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 2328

Re: Vanguard Claims Title of World’s Largest Bond Fund

Possibly the best mutual fund out there. About time people noticed!
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 04, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jumping to Catch Dividends in Mutual Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 422

Re: Jumping to Catch Dividends in Mutual Funds

Similarly, don't buy stocks hoping for a stock split. I have heard that strategy many times too. Lots of people actually think that a stock split means you double your money on a lucky day when the company decides to double it's market cap. If it were this easy, or even remotely possible, 10 billion...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 03, 2015 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's Buying I Bonds Now?
Replies: 39
Views: 2862

Re: New I bond rates out - not good news

And they could be purchased with credit cards too, no?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIGIX unbalanced? [Vanguard Growth Index]
Replies: 20
Views: 1100

Re: VIGIX unbalanced?

I agree that this fund is way too focused on a small number of stocks. Far better to own the total stock fund where the top 10 are only 14%, and apple is a bit more than 3%. But the underlying cap weighted concept is sound. The focus on large cap growth may not be so sound.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1743

Re: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?

Yes, that too. Here's some other research for those not watching Mel Gibson flicks for hints- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation Insurance is not a bad thing, except when involving things you don't want to con...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 1743

Re: should I add Gold Fund to my portfolio?

A small amount (say 5%) wouldn't hurt for insurance purposes, such as the collapse of the financial system. Almost happened in 2008, and historically it's happened to a number of countries. Black swans can happen. Not sure how one cashes in a gold mutual fund after the world economy collapses. Do y...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-Bonds/TIPs:When interest rate rises, inflation is lowered?
Replies: 5
Views: 871

Re: I-Bonds/TIPs:When interest rate rises, inflation is lowe

Rate changes are like easing off the gas a mile down the road in anticipation of traffic, or easing on the gas in anticipation of traffic opening up a mile down the road. They simply can't wait for conditions to get out of hand before making the change, and so they try to anticipate. Rates have to c...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JABAX Capital gain and dump or not?
Replies: 4
Views: 362

Re: JABAX Capital gain and dump or not?

Sell it for several reasons. The biggest being the answer to the following question: would you buy it today? If the answer is no, that is all you need. However, the high expense ratio and the relative outperformance are all good reasons to sell too. It has done above average, you got lucky. As did o...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay

I don't own any of this fund, but.... One year return: VTIBX: 8.68% TBM: 5.49% My guess is that in the long run, it won't make a difference, but I don't pretend to be a seer. You have to know why it did so well in the past year; a one time drop in interest rates to near record lows. I can't imagine...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay

An SEC .75% yield can be beaten by cash these days, so I don't see the purpose of owning this bond fund. Last year it didn't seem so great to me either, but at least one could have held it for a short period and made 10% on the ZIRP. If you did that, I would sell now and take the lucky bump. Once th...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Assets
Replies: 54
Views: 3390

Re: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Ass

fsrph wrote:3.5% real. I guess I could have already done this when I bond's had that as the fixed rate.

Francis


Yes if I ever go back in time I will tell 18 year old me to start buying these with a credit card...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2256

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

They would need a combined rate greater than 0% on I Bonds, in order to sell any. In other words they'd have to increase the fixed rate. At least that's what you'd think. But maybe they're not really interested in selling I Bonds. I was thinking the same way but then someone noted that if there is ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing with Betterment
Replies: 10
Views: 1070

Re: Investing with Betterment

If you can't scratch up $3000, you really shouldn't invest outside of a 401K with company matching. An emergency fund is really crucial. One bad stretch with credit card debt and you have lost a decade of investment returns. Safety first, investing later.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't Just Do Nothing
Replies: 45
Views: 6276

Re: Can't Just Do Nothing

Part time job will outperform any investments, and will occupy plenty of time. Bonus if it is in a field you enjoy or gives back to others.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in stocks of companies in the same industry
Replies: 2
Views: 222

Re: Investing in stocks of companies in the same industry

Just to clarify, to me it seems much safer to own all of the major soda companies. Just owning one is more risky, by owning all you can at least capture the total return of the entire industry. If Coke suffers, it may be because Pepsi is gaining market share. However as Cheese said above, this simpl...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TAXES...oh...taxes...
Replies: 28
Views: 3489

Re: TAXES...oh...taxes...

My GF though the same thing. When you earn money, you have to report it and usually pay taxes too : )
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE stock up 11% on Friday.
Replies: 19
Views: 2197

Re: GE stock up 11% on Friday.

Speaking generally, the best move is to not own individual stocks. That is just a very risky game to play, no matter the company, even GE. However, if you are thinking about the future of GE I think the stock looks quite good. They will get back to their core business and return more to shareholders...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two Comma Club
Replies: 66
Views: 9010

Re: Two Comma Club

Congrats! I am waiting for hyperinflation to push me into this club some day :O)
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter?
Replies: 4
Views: 845

Re: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter

It appears as if this fund has been paying 2 dividends per year for a very long time, since 2002. This means there are only two data points for first quarter dividends, no? I don't think you can come up with a trend on that yet. Back when it was paying quarterly before 2002, the first quarter divide...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 07, 2015 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Might Go $4,000 AAPL
Replies: 68
Views: 5518

Re: Might Go $4,000 AAPL


No I would ride it out for a few years if it took a dump.


I wonder if people rode out Kodak too.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Massive student debt @ 6.8%
Replies: 62
Views: 6415

Re: Massive student debt @ 6.8%

One of the goals is for volunteers to understand what it's like living at a poverty level. Wouldn't a few months suffice? The OP may actually wind up effectively living at the poverty level - albeit earning middle class money - if these loans keep compounding. Not to sound dramatic or anything! I s...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds?
Replies: 13
Views: 1551

Re: Why bonds?

pascalwager wrote:Warren Buffett considers bonds to be far riskier than stocks. With that in mind, I prefer to own only stock funds, I-Bonds, and bank savings/CDs.


So two kinds of bonds and stocks?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Bonds expensive?
Replies: 24
Views: 2381

Re: Why are Bonds expensive?

Don't you have to add a decent chunk of mutual funds (16%) to that 15% since individuals own mutual funds?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Get rid of stocks because you lost faith in company product
Replies: 29
Views: 2220

Re: Get rid of stocks because you list faith in company prod

I can't belive how these two companies do so well whe they produce inferior products. Replace "believe" with "understand." You don't understand it and cannot predict it, and guess what, neither can I. Therefore, I own both companies. I own every public technology company and eve...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Haliburton vs. Exxon as a buy and hold
Replies: 40
Views: 3527

Re: Haliburton vs. Exxon as a buy and hold

I don't mean this to be flippant but a smart investor will buy all of the energy stocks. Anything less than that is a gamble and why gamble a chance at 50% return with a risk of 100% loss when you can take longer odds? I guess I don't see the appeal of a single hand of blackjack over a slot machine....
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Bonds expensive?
Replies: 24
Views: 2381

Re: Why are Bonds expensive?

A diversified bond mutual fund returns about 2%. With inflation near zero right now, and such a fund offering liquidity greater than a 5 year CD (one can on a whim buy or sell any amount) it has a purpose for many people. 2% is not exciting, but it is enough to attract individual investors. The same...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip to [Zihuatanejo] Mexico
Replies: 37
Views: 3482

Re: Trip to Mexico

Why do you right off an entire country based on violence levels in a few regions? That is like advising a person the avoid the US altogether due to the crime rates in Detroit and St. Louis. Yes I avoid war zones even if portions of the country are potentially safe. Sad state of affairs but I consid...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1000 Investment
Replies: 11
Views: 1500

Re: $1000 Investment

At that age liquidity and safety is a good idea. Who knows what he will want to do after college with that money? I would put it in a bank account.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is BND really safe?
Replies: 14
Views: 2210

Re: Is BND really safe?

A bad year in BND would look something like a bad day in stocks.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've Got to be Doing "Something". And You?
Replies: 22
Views: 3224

Re: I've Got to be Doing "Something". And You?

I also have the same feeling, but use it to earn extra money on the side through part time work and various projects. It is time consuming, and is much more reliable than investing.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can bonds & stocks BOTH be negative?
Replies: 14
Views: 1092

Re: Can bonds & stocks BOTH be negative?

It is possible, but rare. However, I can tell you that now is about the best time in a long time for this to happen. Bonds are expensive, stocks are expensive, and life goes on!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2611

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

Yes you are correct not to fixate on share price. This fund has paid out insane dividends over the years.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?
Replies: 67
Views: 5675

Re: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?

Deflation is a very real possibility for the future. Debt is a major risk in that kind of world and rental properties are very hard to make money on. Pay down the debt, I would even consider selling some of the properties to pay off the rest.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 233
Views: 22674

Re: Who should be concerned?

I am more concerned by the fact that they keep changing the target date funds. If one wanted active management, there are other funds for that. A passive, fixed glide path should stay the same because these are set it and forget it mutual funds. Adding international bonds was the move that concerned...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees
Replies: 26
Views: 2472

Re: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees

Currency risk = currency diversification. International isn't beneficial if domestic does better. If domestic tanks a year before retirement, suddenly international may be helpful. If you are not disappointed by at least one investment at any given time, diversification is not working. I can't imagi...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7876

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

Money in the hand is worth two in the future. Too conservative here to count on anything that I don't already have, that includes pensions and SS.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is VTIAX performing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1972

Re: How is VTIAX performing?

Don't forget the role of currency shifts in this, the US dollar got much stronger recently and so even with a solid recovery in Japan and other countries, international stocks fell in dollars. It is possible that you may be reacting to this currency issue instead as it has not come up in a few years...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - now or later in the year?
Replies: 44
Views: 5139

Re: IBonds - now or later in the year?

I have my 10K for this year in a no penalty CD and figured that with the expected 0 variable rate coming in May, I might as well hold out until then in hopes of a .1 or even .2 percent fixed. I mean won't they struggle to sell iBonds offering nothing? Anyway, keeping the 10K liquid for a few more mo...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 25
Views: 3080

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

There is simply no way to know. They could go lower, could go to near zero and then close, or could stay the same for a decade. What you should know is that neither one of these funds directly tracks, nor always correlates with the value of precious metals or oil. These are not commodity funds, they...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Sale Strategy
Replies: 3
Views: 412

Re: Stock Sale Strategy

Yes you probably can see the risk in having money you need now in stocks... that money could go down 20% tomorrow then you would be forced to sell under unfavorable conditions. Better to keep money you need soon in a bank account. Perhaps you as asking about strategies like do you sell shares with t...

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