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Re: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Ass

fsrph wrote:3.5% real. I guess I could have already done this when I bond's had that as the fixed rate.

Francis


Yes if I ever go back in time I will tell 18 year old me to start buying these with a credit card...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Assets
Replies: 50
Views: 2454

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

They would need a combined rate greater than 0% on I Bonds, in order to sell any. In other words they'd have to increase the fixed rate. At least that's what you'd think. But maybe they're not really interested in selling I Bonds. I was thinking the same way but then someone noted that if there is ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2166

Re: Investing with Betterment

If you can't scratch up $3000, you really shouldn't invest outside of a 401K with company matching. An emergency fund is really crucial. One bad stretch with credit card debt and you have lost a decade of investment returns. Safety first, investing later.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing with Betterment
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: Can't Just Do Nothing

Part time job will outperform any investments, and will occupy plenty of time. Bonus if it is in a field you enjoy or gives back to others.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't Just Do Nothing
Replies: 43
Views: 5567

Re: Investing in stocks of companies in the same industry

Just to clarify, to me it seems much safer to own all of the major soda companies. Just owning one is more risky, by owning all you can at least capture the total return of the entire industry. If Coke suffers, it may be because Pepsi is gaining market share. However as Cheese said above, this simpl...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in stocks of companies in the same industry
Replies: 2
Views: 214

Re: TAXES...oh...taxes...

My GF though the same thing. When you earn money, you have to report it and usually pay taxes too : )
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TAXES...oh...taxes...
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: GE stock up 11% on Friday.

Speaking generally, the best move is to not own individual stocks. That is just a very risky game to play, no matter the company, even GE. However, if you are thinking about the future of GE I think the stock looks quite good. They will get back to their core business and return more to shareholders...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE stock up 11% on Friday.
Replies: 19
Views: 2129

Re: Two Comma Club

Congrats! I am waiting for hyperinflation to push me into this club some day :O)
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two Comma Club
Replies: 66
Views: 8696

Re: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter

It appears as if this fund has been paying 2 dividends per year for a very long time, since 2002. This means there are only two data points for first quarter dividends, no? I don't think you can come up with a trend on that yet. Back when it was paying quarterly before 2002, the first quarter divide...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is VDIGX Dividend Payout Always Small in 1st quarter?
Replies: 4
Views: 803

Re: Might Go $4,000 AAPL


No I would ride it out for a few years if it took a dump.


I wonder if people rode out Kodak too.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 07, 2015 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Might Go $4,000 AAPL
Replies: 68
Views: 5197

Re: Massive student debt @ 6.8%

One of the goals is for volunteers to understand what it's like living at a poverty level. Wouldn't a few months suffice? The OP may actually wind up effectively living at the poverty level - albeit earning middle class money - if these loans keep compounding. Not to sound dramatic or anything! I s...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Massive student debt @ 6.8%
Replies: 62
Views: 6196

Re: Why bonds?

pascalwager wrote:Warren Buffett considers bonds to be far riskier than stocks. With that in mind, I prefer to own only stock funds, I-Bonds, and bank savings/CDs.


So two kinds of bonds and stocks?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds?
Replies: 13
Views: 1518

Re: Why are Bonds expensive?

Don't you have to add a decent chunk of mutual funds (16%) to that 15% since individuals own mutual funds?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Bonds expensive?
Replies: 24
Views: 2338

Re: Get rid of stocks because you list faith in company prod

I can't belive how these two companies do so well whe they produce inferior products. Replace "believe" with "understand." You don't understand it and cannot predict it, and guess what, neither can I. Therefore, I own both companies. I own every public technology company and eve...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Get rid of stocks because you lost faith in company product
Replies: 29
Views: 2108

Re: Haliburton vs. Exxon as a buy and hold

I don't mean this to be flippant but a smart investor will buy all of the energy stocks. Anything less than that is a gamble and why gamble a chance at 50% return with a risk of 100% loss when you can take longer odds? I guess I don't see the appeal of a single hand of blackjack over a slot machine....
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Haliburton vs. Exxon as a buy and hold
Replies: 40
Views: 3342

Re: Why are Bonds expensive?

A diversified bond mutual fund returns about 2%. With inflation near zero right now, and such a fund offering liquidity greater than a 5 year CD (one can on a whim buy or sell any amount) it has a purpose for many people. 2% is not exciting, but it is enough to attract individual investors. The same...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 06, 2015 6:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Bonds expensive?
Replies: 24
Views: 2338

Re: Trip to Mexico

Why do you right off an entire country based on violence levels in a few regions? That is like advising a person the avoid the US altogether due to the crime rates in Detroit and St. Louis. Yes I avoid war zones even if portions of the country are potentially safe. Sad state of affairs but I consid...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip to [Zihuatanejo] Mexico
Replies: 37
Views: 3260

Re: $1000 Investment

At that age liquidity and safety is a good idea. Who knows what he will want to do after college with that money? I would put it in a bank account.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1000 Investment
Replies: 11
Views: 1475

Re: Is BND really safe?

A bad year in BND would look something like a bad day in stocks.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is BND really safe?
Replies: 14
Views: 2136

Re: I've Got to be Doing "Something". And You?

I also have the same feeling, but use it to earn extra money on the side through part time work and various projects. It is time consuming, and is much more reliable than investing.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've Got to be Doing "Something". And You?
Replies: 22
Views: 3112

Re: Can bonds & stocks BOTH be negative?

It is possible, but rare. However, I can tell you that now is about the best time in a long time for this to happen. Bonds are expensive, stocks are expensive, and life goes on!
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can bonds & stocks BOTH be negative?
Replies: 14
Views: 1041

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

Yes you are correct not to fixate on share price. This fund has paid out insane dividends over the years.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2443

Re: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?

Deflation is a very real possibility for the future. Debt is a major risk in that kind of world and rental properties are very hard to make money on. Pay down the debt, I would even consider selling some of the properties to pay off the rest.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?
Replies: 67
Views: 5285

Re: Who should be concerned?

I am more concerned by the fact that they keep changing the target date funds. If one wanted active management, there are other funds for that. A passive, fixed glide path should stay the same because these are set it and forget it mutual funds. Adding international bonds was the move that concerned...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 233
Views: 20435

Re: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees

Currency risk = currency diversification. International isn't beneficial if domestic does better. If domestic tanks a year before retirement, suddenly international may be helpful. If you are not disappointed by at least one investment at any given time, diversification is not working. I can't imagi...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees
Replies: 26
Views: 2361

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

Money in the hand is worth two in the future. Too conservative here to count on anything that I don't already have, that includes pensions and SS.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7431

Re: How is VTIAX performing?

Don't forget the role of currency shifts in this, the US dollar got much stronger recently and so even with a solid recovery in Japan and other countries, international stocks fell in dollars. It is possible that you may be reacting to this currency issue instead as it has not come up in a few years...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is VTIAX performing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1879

Re: IBonds - now or later in the year?

I have my 10K for this year in a no penalty CD and figured that with the expected 0 variable rate coming in May, I might as well hold out until then in hopes of a .1 or even .2 percent fixed. I mean won't they struggle to sell iBonds offering nothing? Anyway, keeping the 10K liquid for a few more mo...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - now or later in the year?
Replies: 39
Views: 3647

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

There is simply no way to know. They could go lower, could go to near zero and then close, or could stay the same for a decade. What you should know is that neither one of these funds directly tracks, nor always correlates with the value of precious metals or oil. These are not commodity funds, they...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 25
Views: 2884

Re: Stock Sale Strategy

Yes you probably can see the risk in having money you need now in stocks... that money could go down 20% tomorrow then you would be forced to sell under unfavorable conditions. Better to keep money you need soon in a bank account. Perhaps you as asking about strategies like do you sell shares with t...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Sale Strategy
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: Trip to Mexico

Why do you right off an entire country based on violence levels in a few regions? That is like advising a person the avoid the US altogether due to the crime rates in Detroit and St. Louis. Yes I avoid war zones even if portions of the country are potentially safe. Sad state of affairs but I consid...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 11, 2015 6:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip to [Zihuatanejo] Mexico
Replies: 37
Views: 3260

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The Dow needs to get reduced 10x so people stop freaking out about the number change and focus back on the percentage. I bet that alone would get extra life into the bull market. There really is this feeling that anything over 10,000 is overvalued. I feel it when I look at IBOVESPA. I think this is ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1248
Views: 235616

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Getting 3.2% real on an 80/20 over 20 years is not bad, if I knew it were set in stone I would happily invest in that. Or would one not buy a ca. 5% CD knowing inflation were to stay low?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 23469

Re: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?

Half now and half in 6 months or just waiting are not so terrible, except that they may be a gateway to increasingly irrational/emotional investing behavior.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?
Replies: 17
Views: 1165

Re: US economy, $ strong -> implication for various asset cl

If you want to speculate, Russian stocks will do nicely.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US economy, $ strong -> implication for various asset class
Replies: 7
Views: 1051

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

I am slightly older in a high COLA, and to actually stop working right now and feel 100% safe, I would want about 4 or 5 million invested conservatively. That means living to 85 possibly, and continuing to enjoy a modest but not spartan life. So no, 800,000 at 30 would make me very confident, certai...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2393

Re: Investing in China

Yes there are, but they are small and risky ETFs generally :
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=c ... hina%20etf
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 07, 2015 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in China
Replies: 8
Views: 815

Re: Why are bonds a bad investment for a taxable account?

They are not bad, just sometimes less than optimal. Taxes may stink, but paying more taxes does not mean that making more income is a bad thing. No one turns down a million dollars because of the taxes involved. Regular bonds in taxable are fine if you don't have a better option.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are bonds a bad investment for a taxable account?
Replies: 22
Views: 2111

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

canbonbon wrote:So where do we invest now? How can everything go down at the same time? Where are great folks on this forum investing new money now?


Surely you are aware of the concept of buying low and selling high : ) So if everything is down then one can more comfortably buy anything and everything.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4499

Re: 5-year CDs

No because bond mutual funds adjust to interest rates on the fly, daily, are totally liquid in whole or in small fractions, and I can add to them monthly or quarterly, and at 2.x%, they are doing well enough to compete with a 5 year CD, albeit at greater risk. I would rather own iBonds than a 5 year...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5-year CDs
Replies: 22
Views: 2670

Re: Safe investment for 1 year

Why are you buying a car? Do you need one? My advice is buy a $10k car and invest the rest. You'll come out ahead in the end Yes, you can earn far more by simply buying a solid used car: http://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-Toyota-Camry-d292#listing=107587142 I have no idea what you are looking for,...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 05, 2015 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe investment for 1 year
Replies: 13
Views: 1284

Re: Illiquid Assets

My most illiquid investments then are iBonds. But they return basically zero net. Total International is quite liquid, but what does it mean to be liquid if the investment can reasonably be expected to fall by 50% in a bad year? I think the risk is plenty and being able to sell after a crash is not ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquid Assets
Replies: 46
Views: 4208

Re: Market Cycle Psychology

Maybe the cusp of optimism? This was a fairly deep recession so if the cycle is the same, it may just take longer to go through the steps. Rest assured, if the stock market can keep this up for another 1-3 years, the plebs will be day trading and buying Janus Intergalactic Medical Explorer Nano Bala...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Market Cycle Psychology
Replies: 9
Views: 389

Re: Not "Staying the Course"

Yes, if PE ratios hit truly astronomical numbers such as above 35, I would strongly consider selling a chunk of stock holdings and increase my bond holdings in order to feel comfortable. Since bond/stock ratio is a personal choice, I don't quite see this as market timing. Instead, it is just doing w...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not "Staying the Course"
Replies: 40
Views: 4945

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

At once good, because international stock allocation has always been too low, and very disturbing because international bonds are a horrible investment for the foreseeable future. I mean .84% yield to lend money to a list that includes 14% Italy and Spain? A 12 month CD beats this with no ER and no ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 233
Views: 20435

Re: International is disappointing

Since you have International at 15% then it probably does not make a huge difference whether you rebalance that or not. I think much more disturbing is your thought to kick an asset class to the side when it has 5 years of relative under performance. I think that is the issue you need to give thoug...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7319

Re: International is disappointing

Look at the image below. 1978-1988 international (EAFE, international large cap) beat U.S. (S&P 500, U.S. large cap). 1988-1998 U.S. beat international 1998-2008 International beat U.S. 2008-2018 ??? So one can take 50/50 odds of guessing the better investment for a decade. Or one can be 100% c...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7319

Re: International is disappointing

Vanguard Total International has underperformed the S&P 500 in the past 5 years by more than 60%? So disappointing that I'm considering taking the risk and going 100% Vanguard TSM (Total Stock Market). Since the purpose of holding international is diversification, this shows it IS working. It i...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7319

Re: 401k bond question.

What is the expense ratio for the stable value fund? They are sometimes more expensive.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Feb 26, 2015 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k bond question.
Replies: 5
Views: 359
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