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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

nisiprius wrote:Image


I see you found your glasses. :happy
by wriggly
Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157471

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

1901.74 - it did me proud in 2013, I'm sticking with it.
by wriggly
Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 536
Views: 14104

Re: UK Investor - World ETF or Lifestrategy?

Would it be a good idea then to maybe keep my funds, but anything I buy from now on, I go with ETFs? At the moment, nobody knows for sure. It all very much depends on how the RDR platform fee changes finally shake out, and also to a reasonable extent how much you hold now and how often and how much...
by wriggly
Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investor - World ETF or Lifestrategy?
Replies: 15
Views: 1324

Re: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?

It is interesting, isn't it? When I first looked at this subject, I thought, no, of course I'm not. But, despite considering myself a fairly pure Boglehead (IPS, approximately total world-weighted, still in Total Bond), actually, for the last month or so, I have formulated a plan to "tidy up&qu...
by wriggly
Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?
Replies: 104
Views: 8329

Re: Do you have a warchest for a correction?

I suppose I could sell my kidney on the black market if the stock market drops 90% ... How do you know that kidney prices aren't highly correlated with the stock market? Your kidney may plunge in value as well! As long as you don't go overweight, a small allocation of kidneys will probably do fine....
by wriggly
Tue Nov 12, 2013 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have a warchest for a correction?
Replies: 30
Views: 2878

Re: Dividends Are Different?

...ideally you should DCA into stocks, i.e. buy low, sell high. In retirement, you should consume dividends, i.e. avoid buy high sell low.... You take risks on the equity side but seek refuge on dividends. Researches show that dividend stocks have lower volatility and higher returns than TSM. Given...
by wriggly
Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Are Different?
Replies: 207
Views: 9439

Re: Buy High Dividend Stocks and Ignore The Noise

Actually, it's about dividend growth. UK investors always had the opportunity to invest in investment trusts that intend to pay dividends that increase at a rate that matches or outperforms the inflation rate. Having read some articles on M* UK (http://www.morningstar.co.u) I think these are some o...
by wriggly
Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy High Dividend Stocks and Ignore The Noise
Replies: 71
Views: 6581

Re: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"

STOCKS ARE ABOUT TO SOAR!!! Can I get massive media attention please? When I looked, you're #2 in the Bogleheads Contest. Time it right, and next week you can put out a press release "Rick Ferri provides most accurate prediction for S&P 500 beating Citigroup, Wells Fargo and nisiprius!&quo...
by wriggly
Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"
Replies: 33
Views: 6030

Re: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?

The reason you're having to ask twice is that your subject and paraphrased question both ask about the relationship between QE and equity prices. Note, the relationship is really between announcments that change expectations of future QE and current stock prices. The question you really seem to want...
by wriggly
Fri Sep 20, 2013 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?
Replies: 60
Views: 3595

Re: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?

There is no "above-average inflation". See the line added to my previous post. Even without above-average inflation now, an increase in the probability in the future affects prices now. Note, in the case of prices, it doesn't even matter whether a theory is true, just whether enough peopl...
by wriggly
Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?
Replies: 60
Views: 3595

Re: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money QE is an attempt to increase the money supply in order to compensate for a drop in money velocity, while keeping inflation within "normal" limits. The more QE is applied, the greater the chance that it may overshoot, causing above-a...
by wriggly
Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?
Replies: 60
Views: 3595

Re: Retail Aussie Treasuries at wholesale rates

Thanks for this, it is an interesting development (a government-approved mechanism to allow its bonds to trade on the stock exchange in $100 units) although probably not very actionable by the majority of this board's members.
by wriggly
Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail Aussie Treasuries at wholesale rates
Replies: 4
Views: 588

Re: Obtaining a Favorable Euro/USD Rate for Larger Exchange

I've used Ozforex and others, but I now use CurrencyFair http://www.currencyfair.com/ It provides very competive rates even using their QuickTrade option, which just provides the best price available now. If you are a bit more patient, you can be a price maker rather than a price taker, using their ...
by wriggly
Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obtaining a Favorable Euro/USD Rate for Larger Exchange
Replies: 12
Views: 1203

Re: Covestor: "Why active management is better than passive"

its not just the sum of professional active managers that compose the market. foolish emotional retail investors participate in the market too. The foolish emotional retail investors may be balanced by the smart retail investors who, as customers of the traded firms, have real non-public insight wh...
by wriggly
Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covestor: "Why active management is better than passive"
Replies: 15
Views: 2420

Re: [Australian] Listed Investment Companies

Sounds like Listed Investment Companies are the Australian equivalent of US Closed End Funds - http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/CEF - or UK Investment Trusts. In the UK, when access to index funds was limited and more expensive, a broad-based Investment Trust was often a reasonable alternative. They c...
by wriggly
Fri Jul 19, 2013 6:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Australian] Listed Investment Companies
Replies: 2
Views: 425

Re: Investing in Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF on LSE: GBP or

Bizarre, I fully expected this to be a direction particular to your account at your broker (setup by your broker or, accidentally, by you). However, https://www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/portal/legal/etf-distribution-schedule.pdf indicates that VRWL(GBP) does indeed issue dividends in USD. Normally, ...
by wriggly
Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF on LSE: GBP or USD?
Replies: 4
Views: 1338

Re: Are no foreign purchase fees on credit cards a scam?

I will be in Europe for two and half weeks and will be withdrawing some cash using my VISA. While PenFed does not have fees on the VISA, it will start charging interest on the cash withdrawals immediately. - Does it make sense to over-pay my balance and create some credit on my VISA account, so tha...
by wriggly
Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are no foreign purchase fees on credit cards a scam?
Replies: 16
Views: 1863

Re: Investing is boring

I'm 28, have my ducks in a row, and simply need to "stay the course" by contributing to my 3-fund portfolio and rebalancing each year. The problem is, now I'm bored! Do you put proportional amounts into each fund, or do you rebalance with your new money to the lowest-value fund each time?...
by wriggly
Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing is boring
Replies: 34
Views: 3820

Re: [Australia] Capital Growth Averaging Strategy

So you invest $2.5million in property, which always rises at 7%p.a., then you take out any (sorry, I mean the ) price increase as cash, while still owning the property outright? You don't mention any mortgage servicing costs? Or do the rents cover those? So, yeah, apart from rent voids, bad tenants,...
by wriggly
Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Australia] Capital Growth Averaging Strategy
Replies: 4
Views: 305

Re: Inflation, currency protection in case of crisis?

Sounds like you are already doing the right thing. If you think property is an appropriate asset, but don't want to own your residence, you can increase your allocation to REITs. It's interesting to think of the extreme cases, incredibly unlikely but still possible. In the type of situation where st...
by wriggly
Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation, currency protection in case of crisis?
Replies: 33
Views: 2534

Re: So what is the history of INTL with regards to DIVIDENDS

I can't speak for the whole world, but many international stock markets have higher dividends, around 4% or so, due to their domestic tax systems being more attractive for dividends. Australia is a prime example, with domestic investors getting a tax credit alongside their dividend, to ensure the in...
by wriggly
Fri May 24, 2013 5:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what is the history of INTL with regards to DIVIDENDS??
Replies: 13
Views: 1098

Re: Bond Duration change in regards to interest expectation?

I think that both sides of the argument have a Bogleheadish point: If you truly believe the market is effectively efficient, then staying invested in Total Bond (or whatever you would have "in normal times"), is right. If you truly believe that bonds are for safety, that they're the bit wh...
by wriggly
Thu May 23, 2013 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Duration change in regards to interest expectation?
Replies: 25
Views: 1315

Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Clearly_Irrational wrote:Look for a hammer or doji candle under the bollinger band midline for a good signal. The macd line should be under the signal line for it to be a good entry.


Should I be breaking out the champagne, or lining up for a quarter pounder and fries?
by wriggly
Thu May 23, 2013 1:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will 1,666 be the high?
Replies: 31
Views: 3500

Re: Great new Amazon delivery option

I just picked up my first locker delivery today. I chose locker delivery because I'm going away next week, and the free delivery to my house was estimated to take 4-5 days, a bit late and I don't have the item for my trip. First class delivery (estimated 2-day delivery) cost an additional 1/3 of the...
by wriggly
Wed May 22, 2013 4:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Great new Amazon delivery option
Replies: 32
Views: 4450

Re: Airfare keeps going up. Buy now or wait?

ExcelJunkie wrote:Victoria - I'm a strong believer that the process of purchasing airline tickets is currently broken and is a field ripe for disruption in the coming years.


How about a site that lets you DCA into airfares? air-minimize-regret.com ?
:D
by wriggly
Fri May 17, 2013 5:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airfare keeps going up. Buy now or wait?
Replies: 38
Views: 2565

Re: Another worried bond investor

I am also considering dividend paying stocks but for an entirely different reason. My thought there us that if the stock declines in value I still have the dividends . I just can't get my head around this statement. You are considering holding an asset that may lose principal, as long as the divide...
by wriggly
Thu May 16, 2013 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another worried bond investor
Replies: 50
Views: 3493

Re: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?

VWRL provides access to all stocks in developed countries, but no access to stocks in emerging countries. Is this true? From Vanguard: " This Fund seeks to provide long-term growth of capital by tracking the performance of the Index, a market-capitalisation weighted index of common stocks of l...
by wriggly
Fri May 10, 2013 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1338

Re: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?

I am not really sure why people hold an Index mutual fund instead of an Exchange-traded fund. I thought the fees for an ETF were lower. If only it were that simple. As well as the TER/OGC which you are comparing, there is also the purchase and redemption costs. Funds generally are up-front about th...
by wriggly
Fri May 10, 2013 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1338

Re: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?

The majority of advice on this forum is relevant to investors located in the US. In the UK, you need to adjust the recommendations slightly. The goal of the 3-fund portfolio is to provide a simple portfolio diversifying over all the stocks in the world, alongside good quality domestic bonds to reduc...
by wriggly
Wed May 08, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1338

Re: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?

So there is a great debate whether we need stimulus of austerity in our current climate. I am generally of the view... Possibly one of the hardest paths on the road to Boglehead enlightenment is to recognise that your views, whether they be the result of hours of intellectual investigation or simpl...
by wriggly
Wed May 08, 2013 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Austerity in UK - Do I try timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1338

Re: Do you Fancy Yourself as a Contrarian ?....Prove it !...

1. I think you might have wandered into the wrong forum, if you're looking for market timers.
2. I'm keeping my existing allocation to Total Bond - from recent posts, that's pretty contrarian, even round here.
by wriggly
Thu Apr 25, 2013 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Fancy Yourself as a Contrarian ?....Prove it !....
Replies: 25
Views: 1581

Re: How $1 fee becomes $32

When your stess level goes down a bit, will you enlarge on this a bit? I'm familiar with the authors (and see them quoted by other writers) but do not know what the "huge mistake" is. If it doesn't veer this thread too far off course, and doesn't run afoul of "politics," will yo...
by wriggly
Thu Apr 25, 2013 7:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How $1 fee becomes $32
Replies: 15
Views: 2437

Re: Exchanging USD to GBP

Euros or Dollars? Do not let merchants in Ireland charge your card in dollars. Since the merchants take a cut you will generally get a very unfavorable rate. When handing over your card instruct them to charge in euros only (or pounds sterling in Northern Ireland). This is called dynamic currency c...
by wriggly
Fri Apr 19, 2013 6:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Exchanging USD to GBP
Replies: 13
Views: 917

Re: Are Bogleheads Actually Speculators?

Here is his actual comment: " The ways to hedge against this are to invest in non-paper assets and to overweight in countries who's paper assets are comparatively strong. A large percentage of allegedly well diversified index investors are actually very heavily speculating on one country, the ...
by wriggly
Fri Apr 12, 2013 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads Actually Speculators?
Replies: 57
Views: 3635

Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse

The give-away that this is a complete load of tosh is the appeal to the authority of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies. Each of these groups is defined by being a large collection of competing opinions, where the identifiable entity-in-charge (UN Secretary-General, Speaker...
by wriggly
Tue Apr 09, 2013 5:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
Replies: 28
Views: 4119

Re: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds

I considered a 60/40 Vanguard fund strategy but decided to build a portfolio of individual funds with similar proportions so that I can adjust regional/fund percentages as my needs, views and market opportunities change. but also So Lock up and leave is a main consideration with minimal adjustments...
by wriggly
Thu Mar 28, 2013 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1652

Re: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds

2. I would use the standard UK Equity Fund for your UK allocation. (Note, the OP is suggesting use of the UK Equity Income Fund, which is more concentrated than the UK Equity Fund (FTSE All-share).) Rationale for UK Equity Income Fund - desire to spend capital without selling units. Note taxation d...
by wriggly
Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1652

Re: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds

Looking at page 149, the minimums, this is an institutional fund only? Not sure if it is a retail fund? All the Vanguard funds in the UK have a £100,000 minimum for dealing directly with Vanguard UK. However, you can access them through financial advisors and a small number of self-serve platforms ...
by wriggly
Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1652

Re: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds

It sounds to me like you're not very convinced by passive investing. You still want to tinker. I read this particularly from the statements that you "would prefer to have a set of focused funds that I can individually adjust percentages." and are "not sure if indexing by market capita...
by wriggly
Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Active to Passive UK funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1652

Re: Index Funds are going to kill the market??

Is there even a consistent argument in this article? On one hand, the author argues that indexing makes the market inefficient: The wall of money investing in passive trackers is causing prices to detach from reality On the other hand, active investors are unable to take advantage of this inefficien...
by wriggly
Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds are going to kill the market??
Replies: 21
Views: 2632

Re: UK FTSE AllShare index annualized return ?

L&G has significant tracking error, alas. And that 0.5% is not the Total Expense Ratio, I don't think (which is not disclosed anywhere in UK Unit Trusts, I don't think). L&G UK Index Tracker has an On-going Charge (OGC) of 0.56% OGC has replaced TER. There are some differences (e.g. OGC inc...
by wriggly
Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UK FTSE AllShare index annualized return ?
Replies: 5
Views: 299

Re: "Kick Me" sign on the back of my 401k bond fund

What has suddenly spooked so many posters? New Years' resolutions? Hangovers from attending too many inaugural balls? I suspect it is because stocks (both domestic and international) have stopped being perceived as "in crisis". While stocks were in crisis (even as they rose), people were ...
by wriggly
Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Kick Me" sign on the back of my 401k bond fund
Replies: 37
Views: 3807

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Actually, I'd strongly suggest not doing that. People should just guess without taking into account other people's guesses. Just look at tadamsmar 's guess of 1901.75 which was made two minutes before the deadline, and was obviously designed to box in wriggly 's earlier guess of 1901.74. I think yo...
by wriggly
Mon Jan 21, 2013 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 15504

Re: 23yo UK investor

Of course, the rest of us who may know where the wiki is incorrect or out-of-date are equally guilty of not updating it. OP, good advice to consider the possibility that you may buy a house in the near future. There are savings accounts specifically for future house buyers which offer higher rates (...
by wriggly
Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 23yo UK investor
Replies: 19
Views: 1257

Re: 23yo UK investor

1. Do you have an emergency fund to cover unexpected expenses? In the UK, you are likely to pay higher transaction costs, so you don't want to be putting money in and shortly afterwards taking it out again. 2. If you have enough other savings to cover emergencies, then the best strategy for investin...
by wriggly
Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 23yo UK investor
Replies: 19
Views: 1257

Re: If you were to start a mutual fund, what would you name

I would name my fund company Trailblazer - got to suggest that I'm forging new paths, untravelled by lesser beings. Of course, you have an exclusive opportunity to join me as a brave pioneer as you invest in my Gold Horizons fund - the name practically guarantees future wealth (for me). It's largest...
by wriggly
Thu Jan 17, 2013 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were to start a mutual fund, what would you name it?
Replies: 38
Views: 1562

Re: AAPL vs GOOG vs FB vs MSFT vs AMZN

P/E is usually consistent only in very stable sectors. Tech is not a stable sector. Taking the lowest and the highest PE's: Apple is very popular, but it has high profit margins on it's products. This gives it a high E. However, a high profit margin attracts competitors, and there is a risk that one...
by wriggly
Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL vs GOOG vs FB vs MSFT vs AMZN
Replies: 10
Views: 1155

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

1901.74
by wriggly
Wed Jan 09, 2013 2:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 15504

Re: Australian bonds for expat as FX hedge

Far be it from me to talk you out of it, but here are some opposing views that you might consider: 1. The AUD exchange rate is very high. Like low US bond rates, it may take time, but something has to give eventually. To move back to purchase price parity (PPP), either the AUD will drop to more typi...
by wriggly
Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Australian bonds for expat as FX hedge
Replies: 10
Views: 569

Re: Contrarian Investing Today

Non-prime commercial property. The general focus on "quality" in most asset classes means prime property that will always find a tenant (generally due to location), has bounced back, lower than 2007 but seemingly over-valued. Other locations, either in less desireable parts of big cities, ...
by wriggly
Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian Investing Today
Replies: 30
Views: 2415
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