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Re: Advantages in tax inefficient funds

What I have read, in a few places, is that the market is efficient. One of the efficiencies of the market, includes having an accurate valuation of a fund, including tax costs. The market tends towards efficiency, it's not an absolute. It takes the work of people to make it efficient. I agree, tax ...
by wintermute
Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages in tax inefficient funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1076

Re: Investors beware... account security IS important!

Two factor auth is not "bullet proof". A key logger and/or realtime MITM attack works around that. Also, RSA (the leading producer of such tokens, to my knowledge) was compromised a couple years ago. I know at least one mega corp that didn't bother to replace their tokens after the seeds w...
by wintermute
Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Investors beware... account security IS important!
Replies: 89
Views: 8779

Re: My experience with "Big Death"

It seems like MBA's have been piling into industries where demand is relatively price inelastic and regulations have created entry barriers: healthcare, funerals. I wonder what's next.
by wintermute
Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My experience with "Big Death"
Replies: 32
Views: 3885

Re: I just inherited $1 million

First things first DON"T DO ANYTHING until your wife and you have thought everything out. 1 mill. is a lot, but is easily lost for those who don't know what they are doing. This is really important. Don't make any big purchases or life changes, for 3-6 months. I have a family member who spent ...
by wintermute
Sat Dec 07, 2013 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just inherited $1 million
Replies: 65
Views: 11300

Re: I just inherited $1 million

The last thing on earth you would want to do is give it to a "broker". Watch the movie Boiler Room.
by wintermute
Sat Dec 07, 2013 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just inherited $1 million
Replies: 65
Views: 11300

Re: Employers Enron-esque 401k cause for concern?

ddeigert wrote:-Company match vests 20% over a five year period


Do you mean the vesting increases by 20% per year (20, 40, 60, 80, 100), or after 5 years, you're only 20% vested?
by wintermute
Wed Nov 20, 2013 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employers Enron-esque 401k cause for concern?
Replies: 22
Views: 1456

Re: I Bonds as part of a portfolio

I use I-bonds for more tax deferred space. In other tax deferred spaces, I hold longer bonds to bring up my duration to about 5 years. The risk (duration) adjusted return of I-bonds may end up higher than say BND. Does anyone know if TD auto-redeems electronic I-bonds? If they don't, you can hold on...
by wintermute
Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds as part of a portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 1020

Re: Does an allocation less than 5% ever make sense?

If you have a $2mil portfolio, 5% is $100k. That's at least couple years living expenses.
by wintermute
Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an allocation less than 5% ever make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 3240

Re: Gloves & working with food

I have found that food service workers are very inconsistent in terms of wearing and replacing gloves - and many appear not to understand that it is not their skin (per se) that is the concern but germs, which can live on gloves as easily as on skin. I once saw a woman wipe her nose with her gloved...
by wintermute
Wed Oct 30, 2013 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gloves & working with food
Replies: 32
Views: 1410

Re: My mom has 100k in cash in an IRA.

You have to look at all her assets. 2/3s in equity is risky. Pick an AA, then decide how best to achieve it. You could use LT treasuries to increase duration and yield, if she's fixated on having "cash" (like someone I personally know). Consider transferring some of the cash to IRA CD's.
by wintermute
Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My mom has 100k in cash in an IRA.
Replies: 15
Views: 1766

Re: Alternatives to Yahoo for Throwaway e-mail Account

Slightly off-topic: If you're using it for privacy, make sure you run hushmail's encryption on the client side (your browser). They default to sending the cleartext to their server over ssl, (potentially) give the NSA a copy, then encrypt it for you. How nice of them. Use PGP or GNUPG if you really ...
by wintermute
Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: .....
Replies: 15
Views: 2232

Re: Trust fund recipients, experiences?

Choose trustees wisely. In at least some states, a trust lawyer is the trust ee 's lawyer, not the trust's lawyer and not the beneficiary's. This means if the lawyer catches the trustee stealing, the lawyer cannot tell anyone. Even worse, if the trustee is accused of stealing, the trust will be payi...
by wintermute
Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust fund recipients, experiences?
Replies: 10
Views: 1759

Re: Should retirement portfolios tilt toward dividend stocks

This factor has been overlooked in examining the results of historical SWR studies, which are largely based on data from periods in which stock dividends were considerably higher than they are today. It seems doubtful that historical SWRs could be supported with today's dividend yields, since the r...
by wintermute
Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirement portfolios tilt toward dividend stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 2337

Re: Should retirement portfolios tilt toward dividend stocks

Perhaps a reasonable alternative to a dividend paying stocks (given their fad-induced valuations) may be to synthesize them. Buy a long term corp bond fund and non-dividend paying low beta stocks. The LT corp fund could be one that buys-and-holds to near maturity (to sell above par, if possible). Th...
by wintermute
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirement portfolios tilt toward dividend stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 2337

Re: Forbes interview w/George Gilder on Index Funds

The sad thing is many people read such arguments, and think "why would I deprive myself of an extra share of the pie?". Naive greed is quite costly.
by wintermute
Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes interview w/George Gilder on Index Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 1524

Re: Any thoughts on a "Market Neutral" bond strategy?

By buying an inverse ETF however would allow a person to reduce duration without triggering a taxable event. No it wouldn't, as others have pointed out, because short and leveraged ETF's reset their position each day. That is very different from setting it once, at a time of purchase. When you buy ...
by wintermute
Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on a "Market Neutral" bond strategy?
Replies: 29
Views: 2257

Re: Are these fees too high?

You can transfer the Roth IRA (and any other accounts, except a 401k at a current employer in most cases) to Vanguard. Then just invest it all in a Target Retirement fund. That will quickly cut out the hemorrhaging from outrageous fees while you learn more (if you desire to). You can later split int...
by wintermute
Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are these fees too high?
Replies: 64
Views: 4200

Re: Insanity in the office kitchen/break room

Tragedy of the commons.
by wintermute
Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insanity in the office kitchen/break room
Replies: 32
Views: 3301

Re: Ugh, John Hancock 401k - is it worth it?

Be sure to save documentation of the vestment policy and her vestment %, before she leaves. I just had a former employer who told JH I was only partially vested. Once you initiate a roll-over, they disable your login. It's also best if you shift your 401k alloc to as close to cash (eg, MM, stable va...
by wintermute
Tue Aug 13, 2013 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ugh, John Hancock 401k - is it worth it?
Replies: 11
Views: 689

Re: Forum Design - Hard to refer people

Personally, I like the current main page a great deal. It's simple text with few images, displays very fast, and will load even over a 1x or a bad 3g link. I find thread display to be quick as well.
by wintermute
Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum Design - Hard to refer people
Replies: 31
Views: 3636

Re: Small/Value Tilt question

Chan_va I would say most people (including myself) think it is not a free lunch. It is simply a risk not captured by volatility (or CAPM beta). Such as exposure to unemployment risk etc. Return varience only includes risks that have occured, or those whose probability has changed. It's really about...
by wintermute
Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Value Tilt question
Replies: 27
Views: 2477

Re: Large Value - Chasing safety, not a tilt premium

While raising the equity amount would be one way to increase expected returns, holding greater amounts of smaller and more value oriented stocks and keeping the bond allocation the same would be another -- and in the later case, one would be able to maintain a higher amount of liquidity in bonds to...
by wintermute
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Value - Chasing safety, not a tilt premium
Replies: 18
Views: 1029

Re: Use of Risk Parity to Juice Returns in Pension Funds

Sounds more like it's ultimately (or partially) interest rate arbitrage. They're becoming a middleman to move money from a lower interest location to one that's higher - maybe altering its credit exposure in the process. Makes me wonder why those lenders (or futures/options market participants) don'...
by wintermute
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use of Risk Parity to Juice Returns in Pension Funds
Replies: 29
Views: 2009

Re: DFA Growth funds?

Its funny how DFA is becoming more active (that is, selective), albeit at low costs and using defined rules. Research (from my limited, casual viewing) appears to be moving toward security selection. That's fine, as long as the fees don't consume all this alpha laying around. Or maybe there's so lit...
by wintermute
Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Growth funds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5214

Re: Rebalancing theory

I wonder how a portfolio with that quant momo fund performs, with and without rebalancing, and vs Sharpe's new strategy. That might provide some insight.
by wintermute
Thu May 31, 2012 1:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing theory
Replies: 82
Views: 3228

Re: investing in countries - BRIC vs new MIST

Is there any logic to these groupings, or do they just make catchy abbreviations?
by wintermute
Thu Apr 05, 2012 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investing in countries - BRIC vs new MIST
Replies: 4
Views: 571

Re: JACK BOGLE'S MESSAGE TO BH: Two Birthdays!

Happy birthday and thank you for building Vanguard. It stands above and apart from all others.
by wintermute
Fri Feb 24, 2012 2:53 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: JACK BOGLE'S MESSAGE TO BH: Two Birthdays!
Replies: 56
Views: 5653

Re: A Bar May Be the Place to Understand Markets

I'm sure the (actual) rocket scientists and physicists working on HF blackboxes have already considered this, but maybe markets are like positive and negative feedback loops fighting for domination (as in biological systems). Maybe other complex systems behave that way. Too bad I don't know enough m...
by wintermute
Wed Feb 08, 2012 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bar May Be the Place to Understand Markets
Replies: 4
Views: 644

Re: Admiral funds at Wells Trade

I was able to buy VBSSX signal shares (short term bond). I purchased >$3000 (<$5000). Didn't show up until the third business day. This makes wellstrade PMA an even better deal. Don't mention this to customer service - it might be a screw up and they only meant wells fargo advisers to have access t...
by wintermute
Thu Feb 02, 2012 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Admiral funds at Wells Trade
Replies: 117
Views: 8557

Re: Admiral funds at Wells Trade

I was able to buy VBSSX signal shares (short term bond). I purchased >$3000 (<$5000). Didn't show up until the third business day. This makes wellstrade PMA an even better deal. Don't mention this to customer service - it might be a screw up and they only meant wells fargo advisers to have access to...
by wintermute
Tue Jan 31, 2012 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Admiral funds at Wells Trade
Replies: 117
Views: 8557

Re: Anyone with experience with Carmax?

I like them - used them several years ago. Wide selection, decent prices, honor their warranty. Their buy offer helped me negotiate a trade in (dealer matched). I've always had a good experience with them.
by wintermute
Sun Jan 08, 2012 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone with experience with Carmax?
Replies: 50
Views: 8883

Re: Ally Demand Notes - "is it safe"?

Not FDIC - dump them. You get can get a 5 year 2.25% NCUA insured CD from Penfed or a 1.8% FDIC insured from Ally. (Compare the early withdrawl penalties, they're different.)
by wintermute
Sun Dec 04, 2011 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Demand Notes - "is it safe"?
Replies: 20
Views: 4887

Re: Taking risk on the bond or stock side

You don't have to go long-term to get about a 1% credit spread, but the spread is wider at the long end. Credit's taken a hit recently. The question is: is the credit spread enough now to more than offset the negative correlation you get with treasuries of the same duration? The more volatile equiti...
by wintermute
Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking risk on the bond or stock side
Replies: 33
Views: 1862

I can't stand the new series, with it's 30min fast-forward stories and nearly constant fast music attempting to induce excitement. The old version was longer, more realistically paced, and only occasional had music (silence builds suspense). Most of all I like the shows that were shot and played in ...
by wintermute
Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doctor Who - Really enjoying it!
Replies: 10
Views: 1559

That's an awful lot of LT treasuries. If you want to approximate IT, you can do the barbell split you're talking about. You'll gain convexity but loose a little yield.

See Grok's Tip #9:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=73669
by wintermute
Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Extended Treasury (EDV) for tax efficiency
Replies: 7
Views: 1417

In my ~12 years of driving, I've never had to change a tire. I carry a 12v air compressor. It's enough (after waiting a while - it's slow), to get to a gas station to fill it up the rest of the way. I can usually get by for a day until it can be patched. That's happened a few times. My car did come ...
by wintermute
Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LA Times: Automakers sell more cars without spare tires
Replies: 25
Views: 3011

I've wanted a Lotus Exige for years now. 270hp, 1650lbs.
by wintermute
Mon Jun 27, 2011 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Porsche as Smart Investment for Single Guy on the Make
Replies: 50
Views: 5914

Why keep anything in a MM fund? Credit risk with almost no interest. Keep some cash in your IRA for rebalancing (some (most?) are FDIC insured) and the rest in IRA CD's (Penfed, Discover, Ally, others). Even a 3 month IRA CD pays about 10 times what MM funds do now. Or even consider a taxable CD.
by wintermute
Mon Jun 27, 2011 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: money market funds have big europe debt exposure
Replies: 45
Views: 5860

I believe the idea is a safe store of value. Bonds have inflation risk. See Permanent Portfolio and stable value funds. How does this not have inflation risk? It returns nothing. Are you implying that there is a TIPS component included? I should've said interest rate shock. I was thinking more of s...
by wintermute
Sat Jun 25, 2011 1:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Neutral Mutual Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2016

I believe the idea is a safe store of value. Bonds have inflation risk. See Permanent Portfolio and stable value funds.
by wintermute
Fri Jun 24, 2011 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Neutral Mutual Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2016

8 glasses of water a day. :lol: Who actually did that? It's absurd.

edit: in this area. In AZ, that's probably a minimum.
by wintermute
Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drink water
Replies: 50
Views: 4147

Old thread, but someone PM'ed asking if I ever got Yahoo working in OpenOffice again. I couldn't, but here's what I'm using now:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quotes ... mb=BSV+VTI
by wintermute
Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo format changed again, affecting spreadsheet import
Replies: 27
Views: 4375

They're the ones who make it efficient. They have way more resources than an individual investor. Several employees can research a single stock, and utilize all the data, models, and inside info they have available. There's also the latency and other advantages their HFT systems have (like getting t...
by wintermute
Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how do prop desks make money in a very efficient market
Replies: 9
Views: 1023

Stocks are perpetual bonds that pay a variable coupon. At least that's how I look at them. A continuum from treasuries, thru corps, to stocks (altho treasuries are special).
by wintermute
Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are there no perpetuity bonds?
Replies: 21
Views: 3099

Re: Time Diversification actually DOES reduce stock risk

Whatever the market does during this relatively short timeframe of 10 years or so will overwhelm (for good or evil) most of the benefits of time diversification from having owned stocks even over a much longer run. That's why accumulating a floor of bonds to cover your basic expenses (in addition t...
by wintermute
Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification actually DOES reduce stock risk
Replies: 70
Views: 9058

The problem right now is the risk/return of just about everything looks bad. All you can do is set an appropriate allocation and increase savings. That's all the control you have so get over it. :P
by wintermute
Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: But aren't these extraordinary times...
Replies: 61
Views: 5868

Now that I think about it, there was some old minicomputer that had user programmable microcode. And Intel does release microcode updates. We're both right. 8-)

Edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcode#Writable_control_stores
by wintermute
Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ultrabook - the next wave?
Replies: 23
Views: 2304

Re: Efficient Frontier with WBern's low equity rate ...

baw703916 wrote:But regardless of whether bonds are low risk, it's mathematically impossible for them to give a 6% annualized return over the next ten years.


The coupon might be non-negative, but the total return can still be negative when bonds are bid up.
by wintermute
Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Efficient Frontier with WBern's low equity rate ...
Replies: 20
Views: 2983
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