Search found 110 matches

by wastenot
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Qualms about Market Predictions
Replies: 15
Views: 1112

Qualms about Market Predictions

One of the basic premises of Bogleheads is that the future is unknowable, leading us to hold diverse portfolios in order to cover all the bases. And while I have the highest respect for John Bogle and Bill Bernstein, does anyone share my concern when John Bogle and Bill Bernstein make predictions ab...
by wastenot
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cooking: Refreezing Turkey Stock?
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Cooking: Refreezing Turkey Stock?

I have found that making stock from the Christmas turkey is a thrifty (and tasty) way to make soup.

But if I freeze turkey stock, is it safe to thaw it out, make more turkey soup, and then freeze it again for later consumption?

The advice of seasoned cooks would be appreciated.
by wastenot
Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: NYC Chapter
Replies: 2
Views: 891

Re: NYC Chapter

Bogle101 wrote:Do bogleheads ever meet or present ideas in the NYC area?


Yes, there is a NYC chapter.

For details on the next meeting, send an e-mail to: bogleheadnyc@gmail.com
by wastenot
Fri Dec 19, 2014 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations of Risk Factors in Down Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 1568

Re: Correlations of Risk Factors in Down Markets

Different central banks will have different reasons, but for the US Fed, I think the simplest explanation is best: government inertia. The US Fed has always owned gold and until someone makes the case for why we need to sell it, the Fed is happy to keep the gold on its books indefinitely even if it...
by wastenot
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations of Risk Factors in Down Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 1568

Re: Correlations of Risk Factors in Down Markets

For added diversification, dare I mention the dreaded "G word," which turns normally mildmannered Bogleheads into impatient and, in my humble opinion, irrational respondents? The "G word" is: Gold. Gold often zigs when other investments are zagging (and sagging :beer ), which is ...
by wastenot
Tue Dec 09, 2014 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad hoc travel to Antarctica
Replies: 51
Views: 3061

Re: Ad hoc travel to Antarctica

Judging from your past posts, Victoria, I think you would enjoy Ushuaia and vicinity. It is a hiker's paradise, with a wonderful National Park close by with many trails. It reminded me of Alaska without the crowds, although I haven't actually visited Alaska yet. I went there about 15 years ago, but ...
by wastenot
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best book on Medicare?
Replies: 3
Views: 585

Best book on Medicare?

What is the best book to read on Medicare? I will turn 65 next year and need to read up on the bewildering complexity surrounding this subject.

I prefer to read a printed book, but referrals to concise and accurate websites are also welcome.

Thank you.
by wastenot
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy
Replies: 229
Views: 13559

Re: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy

Huckleberry Finn, in an unaccustomed and brief role as literary critic, had something to say about tiresome classics. During one of his adventures, Huck was adopted by a host family of rustic aristocrats. After perusing the few books in the family's library, he noted: "One was 'Pilgrim's Progre...
by wastenot
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Has a financial firm made a mistake with your money?
Replies: 52
Views: 3309

Re: POLL: Has a financial firm made a mistake with your mone

Two stories: Story #1: For years, before I was a Boglehead, I would rush to the bank just before April 15 and put the maximum amount into a minimal interest rate TIRA. One year I finally got wise and went to the bank before the end of the year to consolidate all of these accounts and switch them to ...
by wastenot
Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYC [Visit to New York City]
Replies: 45
Views: 2532

Re: NYC [Visit to New York City]

NYC is a place where you have to leave your boglehead budget behind, but do a lot of research. The not-so-hot places in NY cost just as much as the good places. They're all remarkably expensive. :) I respectfully disagree. Lodging in New York is indeed pricey, but NYC has attractions which suit all...
by wastenot
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Which Happens First - DOW > 20,000 or DOW < 14,000?
Replies: 33
Views: 3469

Re: Poll: Which Happens First - DOW > 20,000 or DOW < 14,000

It may have been Mark Twain who was asked by a persistent questioner, "Do you want to go to heaven or to hell?"

His response: "I have friends in both places." 8-)
by wastenot
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice For Late Starters To Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1286

Re: Advice For Late Starters To Investing

Rest assured, Nerdicus, that 38 is not too late to start saving. I started saving systematically at the age of 39 and managed to "reach my number," with a recommended safety margin, before retirement. I owe this success to John Bogle and the wise and generous members of our Boglehead board...
by wastenot
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times Article - a case for index investing
Replies: 23
Views: 3101

Re: NY Times Article - a case for index investing

Interesting article! “It is very difficult for active fund managers to consistently outperform their peers and remain in the top quartile of performance over long periods of time,” he said... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/your-money/who-routinely-trounces-the-stock-market-try-2-out-of-2862-fund...
by wastenot
Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Has your AA changed in the last 18 months
Replies: 58
Views: 3963

Re: Poll: Has your AA changed in the last 18 months

I voted for "becoming more conservative" because in early 2013 I switched from an orthodox "age in bonds" BH allocation to putting most of my savings in Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio (*not* in the commercial, and rather flawed, PERM and PRPFX funds.) For this move I thank Ta...
by wastenot
Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Inter-Term Bond Index (VBILX)
Replies: 9
Views: 1323

Re: Vanguard Inter-Term Bond Index (VBILX)

I like VBILX because it does not hold high-risk mortgage backed securities (MBS.) After 2008, I avoid MBS like the plague.

Over the years, VBILX has a slightly lower CAGR than BND, but I still prefer VBILX for the reason stated above.
by wastenot
Mon May 26, 2014 11:16 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: NYC Meetup
Replies: 1
Views: 417

Re: NYC Meetup

For information on the local NYC chapter of the Bogleheads, send e-mail to:

bogleheadnyc@gmail.com
by wastenot
Mon May 26, 2014 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I need some "hand-holding" right now...
Replies: 51
Views: 5870

Re: I need some "hand-holding" right now...

Ok, I'm totally new to Bogleheads.org...so be gentle with me!... Can some of you smart people "talk me off the bridge" and explain to me, very generally, why we all should not be buying gold and silver, as many are doing?... Gold is not held exclusively by people who are afraid of a total...
by wastenot
Thu May 22, 2014 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Treasuries: A better safe haven than gold"
Replies: 38
Views: 2862

Re: "Treasuries: A better safe haven than gold"

Now, which do you think is easier to create more of: dollars by the Fed, or gold, which requires labor and expense to dig out of the ground and there is a finite supply of? Wow, you say this as if you're proud of it. It should be "unfortunately, gold requires...", with a strong hint of sh...
by wastenot
Sat May 17, 2014 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond investing: Is a bear still out there?"
Replies: 34
Views: 2912

Re: "Bond investing: Is a bear still out there?"

billyt wrote:No less than former Fed chair Ben Bernanke expects rates to stay low for quite a long time:


But can Bernanke know what Mr. Bond Market has in mind for the future?" Or as Trotsky said: "You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you."
by wastenot
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge
Replies: 24
Views: 2467

Re: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge

A detailed discussion of gold as part of a 4-part diversified portfolio (stocks, long term bonds, cash, gold) can be found on Craig Rowland's crawlingroad website: http://www.crawlingroad.com/blog/2013/08/12/permanent-portfolio-basics/ The most detailed explanation of all is in Craig Rowland and J.M...
by wastenot
Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ancestry Tests
Replies: 19
Views: 2040

Re: Ancestry Tests

Information on DNA testing for Native American ancestry can be found at: http://dna-explained.com/2012/12/18/proving-native-american-ancestry-using-dna/ The explanation is highly complex. I have a similar situation, as there is a vague rumor that my father's family, way back, includes Native America...
by wastenot
Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What age to buy I bonds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2830

Re: What age to buy I bonds?

dad2000 wrote:I like them because they are very adaptable:


- They are the best inflation hedge (along with TIPS, but I prefer I-bonds in taxable space)


In my opinion, I-bonds are even better than TIPS because they can never decline in value. In 2013, for example, TIPS funds dropped about 7% (IIRC).
by wastenot
Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spending money abroad
Replies: 46
Views: 3326

Re: Spending money abroad

Due to personal experience, I always like to carry several hundred dollars (kept in a money belt) when traveling abroad. Here are some of my learning experiences: (1) I had to catch a 6 A.M. flight to Canada. At 4 A.M., I went to the lobby of my apartment building and put my card in the slot of the ...
by wastenot
Sun Dec 29, 2013 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads "robots with Excel Spreadsheets?"
Replies: 74
Views: 4274

Re: Are Bogleheads "robots with Excel Spreadsheets?"

I have doubts about the expertise and intentions of activists such as Ms. Ghilarducci. Governments in Argentina and Poland have seized private pension plans in exchange for "government guaranteed" retirement payouts, and Ms. Ghilarducci has been accused of moving toward this doleful strate...
by wastenot
Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Roth or not to Roth
Replies: 28
Views: 2497

Re: To Roth or not to Roth

Concern about future tax increases is another reason a Roth might make sense. To me, this is the essence of the advantage of converting to a Roth. Nobody knows what future tax rates will be, but I am convinced they have to go MUCH higher (for reasons beyond the scope of the BH list.) As to when tax...
by wastenot
Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham-on the equity markets next 2 years
Replies: 10
Views: 2418

Re: Jeremy Grantham-on the equity markets next 2 years

Verbal punditry is worth the paper it's written on. Jeremy Grantham strikes me as a thoughtful sort of guy, but IMHO his views don't amount to much unless they face the ultimate reality test of actually plunking down money in a portfolio. And as we all know, timing is timing.
by wastenot
Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?
Replies: 34
Views: 3833

Advantages to Dual Citizenship?

I was born in the U.S. but two of my grandparents were born in Ireland, so I qualify for Irish citizenship. The process would take several months, submitting certified documents to Dublin and paying a few hundred dollars in order to get an Irish passport. In the opinion of experienced Bogleheads, is...
by wastenot
Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-Bonds vs. TIPS funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1119

Re: I-Bonds vs. TIPS funds

Thanks for all your comments. To clarify matters, I am speaking specifically of TIPS in a TIRA, not TIPS bonds owned outright. And I should have stated that in cashing in my TIPS TIRA funds to buy I-Bonds at a reduced tax rate, I am building up my cash portfolio as part of the Permanent Portfolio st...
by wastenot
Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-Bonds vs. TIPS funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1119

I-Bonds vs. TIPS funds

I am not too far away from Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs), and this deadline raises a question regarding the comparative value of I-Bonds vs. TIPS funds held in a traditional IRA. Both protect against inflation, but as the years go by I tend to favor I-Bonds over TIPS funds in a traditional I...
by wastenot
Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gee, I coulda had an I-Bond instead!
Replies: 53
Views: 4579

Re: Gee, I coulda had an I-Bond instead!

That's another way to overpay your taxes (have Vanguard withhold 100% of a $5000 withdrawal, or alternately, withhold $5000 more than normal on a larger withdrawal). Hopefully this is a RMD, since I wouldn't ordinarily recommend taking unneeded withdrawals from one's IRA just to buy I Bonds. And ye...
by wastenot
Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gee, I coulda had an I-Bond instead!
Replies: 53
Views: 4579

Re: Gee, I coulda had an I-Bond instead!

As an alternative, in order to get $5,000 extra in I-bonds, could I cash in a traditional IRA before Dec. 31 of this year and ask Vanguard to send to the IRS a withholding that will cover the $5,000 I-bond? In this way would I receive this extra amount in I-Bonds when I pay my 2013 taxes in early 20...
by wastenot
Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iBonds for tax sheltering
Replies: 18
Views: 1638

Re: iBonds for tax sheltering

I-Bonds are excellent for tax deferral. I especially like the way they keep pace with inflation while having the added benefit of never declining in value during periods of deflation. In this aspect they are superior to TIPS funds. So, in my opinion, they are a win-win situation. My only regret is t...
by wastenot
Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question
Replies: 73
Views: 4536

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question

There are large numbers of investors who would benefit greatly from the "standard stuff" recommended by the likes of John Bogle, William Bernstein, Harry Browne, Larry Swedroe, Rick Ferri, etc. Sadly, this legion of uninformed and (literally) misguided investors has little or no understan...
by wastenot
Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question
Replies: 73
Views: 4536

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question

Who was Harry Browne, and what were his qualifications as a finance/economic/investment expert anyway? An advertising and sales executive who admitted they got lucky with gold and that boasted that you can "dine out for the rest of his life" on a single prediction that came true. Clive ha...
by wastenot
Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Food Dehydrators
Replies: 15
Views: 1375

Re: Food Dehydrators

I use my dehydrator mainly for preparing backpacking meals. The freezedried meals you buy in stores are expensive and loaded with salt (as much as 80% of the recommended daily sodium portion per meal). Ugh! But even people who do not go backpacking can benefit from dehydrating, which is very cost-ef...
by wastenot
Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the state of unfunded state pension obligations
Replies: 90
Views: 6294

Re: the state of unfunded state pension obligations

The central question for me is: Why didn't the unions complain loudly or file lawsuits during the years and even decades when state legislatures were shortchanging their mandated pension contributions? And for those who believe that they can get blood out of the fiscal onion, read Kotlikoff and Burn...
by wastenot
Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!
Replies: 137
Views: 9578

Re: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!

[quote="wastenot"] Here we go again. To paraphrase a Chinese statesman, "It doesn't matter whether a cat is white, black or gold-colored as long as it catches mice." quote] Bottom Line: When the white and black cats are failing at their job of catching mice, investors should flee...
by wastenot
Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!
Replies: 137
Views: 9578

Re: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!

(gold) takes capital away from real returning assets. That's the problem. Gold pays no dividends, no interest and has no real growth. It is a storage of wealth if purchased at the right price (about $600 per ounce), it is not an investment that grows grow wealth Rick Ferri Here we go again. To para...
by wastenot
Thu Aug 22, 2013 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!
Replies: 137
Views: 9578

Re: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!

I can pan gold because it is a short-term trading vehicle, not a long-term buy and hold investment. And owning it takes away from cash producing stocks and bonds. If you're timing isn't right, you're stuck in a non-performing asset for 20 years. But Rick, just two postings ago you conceded that sto...
by wastenot
Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!
Replies: 137
Views: 9578

Re: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!

Every investment that has a return over the inflation rate has periods when it underperforms the inflation rate; stocks, nominal bonds, real estate, TIPS, whatever. There is no investments that generate a real-risk free return every year. Rick Ferri Now, at long last, we seem to be making some prog...
by wastenot
Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!
Replies: 137
Views: 9578

Re: Gold and DJIA: What is going on?!

My view on gold (commodities) is that it doesn't pay interest or dividends Gold has no growth, no earnings, and is not a going concern. It just sits there, looking pretty, and waiting for someone to come along and pay a premium price. Rick Ferri I hesitate to disagree with one of the outstanding BH...
by wastenot
Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Sad news - Pat Larimore]
Replies: 225
Views: 17267

Re: [Sad news - Pat Larimore]

Dear Taylor:

My heartfelt condolences to you and your family on the terrible loss you have suffered.
by wastenot
Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wrist Watches
Replies: 81
Views: 8107

Re: Wrist Watches

Personally, I believe Casio meets all of the requirements to be deemed the Official Bogleheads Watch. My last one cost about $20 and I have had it for five years or so. The plastic wristband usually wears out before the watch's innards expire from old age. And at restaurants I usually order the Bogl...
by wastenot
Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest like a chicken
Replies: 16
Views: 2062

Re: Invest like a chicken

In 2007 I was fine-tuning my portfolio, thinking of retiring in 2010. We all know happened next, in 2008. The wisdom of the age-old lesson is: "Don't count your chickens before they hatch." :twisted: But thanks to the miracle-working providence of Mr. Market, the various portfolio loaves, ...
by wastenot
Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What was your worst investment?
Replies: 100
Views: 8515

Re: What was your worst investment?

My worst investment was *not* investing in I-bonds when they were paying phenomenal rates, on top of the inflation rate. This failure occurred over a decade ago, when I had just started browsing the Bogleheads list but was not yet sure about the wisdom of following Mel's advice to back up the truck ...
by wastenot
Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big Island Hawaii
Replies: 45
Views: 4163

Re: Big Island Hawaii

Do you have an opinion of Waipio vs. Pololu? If I could add a comment, visitors are often surprised by the distances that need to be covered on the Big Island, which is the largest island in the state and is bigger than Connecticut. Visiting both the Waipio and Pololu Valleys (if you are staying in...
by wastenot
Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big Island Hawaii
Replies: 45
Views: 4163

Re: Big Island Hawaii

Are you referring to the first part of the Kalalau Trail? As far as the Na Pali coast, do think it's better to see via boat or helicopter? Yes, the hike to Hanakapiai Valley is the first part of the very rugged (but rewarding) Kalalau Trail. But unlike the full Kalalau Trail, you do not need a perm...
by wastenot
Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big Island Hawaii
Replies: 45
Views: 4163

Re: Big Island Hawaii

Moving on to Kauai, in my opinion the most beautiful part of the island, if you enjoy lush, soaring mountains, profuse tropical vegetation, and splendid beaches, is the Hanalei area. A day hike to the Hanakapiai Valley is recommended (but avoid the urge to swim at the splendid beach, as there have b...
by wastenot
Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big Island Hawaii
Replies: 45
Views: 4163

Re: Big Island Hawaii

Hawaii is one of my favorite places on this planet. I am thinking of moving there and visit as much as I can. Good (and inexpensive) adventure day tours of the Big Island are given by two hostels: Arnott's Lodge and the Hilo Backpacker's Hostel. These tour sponsors take small groups to places in the...
by wastenot
Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i-Bond > TIPS Fund if SEC yield < i-Bond rate?
Replies: 4
Views: 742

Re: i-Bond > TIPS Fund if SEC yield < i-Bond rate?

The major drawback of TIPS funds compared to I-bonds, in my opinion, is that TIPS funds can and do decline in value during periods of deflation. This doesn't happen often, but in the event of a 1930s-style depression, the fall of the funds would be devastating. I-bonds, in contrast, never decline in...

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