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Re: Buying more when markets are down

When the market drops a lot in one day It is a really good day ,just like buying groceries on sale at the store.Just keep buying as often as you can no matter where the market it is. :happy If they had shares of VTSMX in the checkout line, I might be tempted to drop some in my cart. But the last ti...
by telemark
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying more when markets are down
Replies: 53
Views: 3020

Re: Picking My 401K Investments - Advice Wanted

A lot of people say they wish they had these choices too - but I find myself asking, what would you choose that is so amazing outside of the same three-fund portfolio's that 90% of 401ks have? (Total Stock, Total Bond, Total Intl Stock) Nothing, that is exactly what most people here would choose. T...
by telemark
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Picking My 401K Investments - Advice Wanted
Replies: 7
Views: 337

Re: Picking My 401K Investments - Advice Wanted

If the fees are the same in your plan as they are at Vanguard (they aren't, always) then yes, a three-fund portfolio would be cheaper than the Target Retirement plans. That's what I would do. But you won't go very wrong either way. I wish I had those choices...
by telemark
Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Picking My 401K Investments - Advice Wanted
Replies: 7
Views: 337

Re: Buying more when markets are down

If I had some spare money sitting in my checking account, and I don't budget so tightly that this never happens, this would look like a tempting time to add to my taxable investments. In fact I did that once this summer, don't remember the exact date now. As it happens, I just paid some bills and I ...
by telemark
Wed Oct 01, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying more when markets are down
Replies: 53
Views: 3020

Re: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work

David Ramsey wrote: Spread your money across four types of funds: growth, growth and income, aggressive growth and international.

Could I have egg, bacon, spam and sausage without the spam?
by telemark
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 52
Views: 4373

Re: what is risk?

I agree that standard deviation is the best single measure of risk. It's just that no single measure
of a vector quantity is going to be very good. Investors need to identify the specific types of risk
that apply to their situation.
by telemark
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4115

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

PTTRX has a $25K minimum at Vanguard. Typically Pimco institutional funds are $25K minimum at Vanguard. It's available at TD Ameritrade with no minimum (or was it $1000, I forgot), although you'll pay a commission when you buy it. Obviously I haven't been shopping for brokerage accounts. It remains...
by telemark
Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 51
Views: 2577

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

PTTRX has an ER of 0.46% and is widely available at major retail brokerages. Sure, you can pay more for the worse share classes, but why would you? PTTRX is the institutional class. It has a minimum investment of $1,000,000. But the broader point is that, outside of Vanguard, increased assets under...
by telemark
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 51
Views: 2577

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

the ER is 0.96% and thats after a 1.00% fee waiver. And that's with only $12M in assets. Given $10B left Pimco just on Friday, if even 1% of that went to the new fund, they will have 10x more assets and the expenses should rapidly start to drop. Don't count on it. PIMCO Total Return is the biggest ...
by telemark
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 51
Views: 2577

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

For any rebalancing strategy, I can construct a market sequence for which it will do either better or worse than the market. The best results come from rebalancing at market tops and bottoms, but if we knew when those were we could just move between 100% stocks and 100% cash as needed. You can alway...
by telemark
Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 4671

Re: Maxing your IRA or 401k at the beginning of the year?

WHL wrote:My rIRA gets chunked in on the first possible day of the year, usually around January 4th.

I do the same. It's still dollar cost averaging, just on a slightly different time scale.
by telemark
Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing your IRA or 401k at the beginning of the year?
Replies: 11
Views: 846

Re: what is risk?

Yet another type of risk is opportunity cost, the money you don't make while waiting for something that may never happen. This one is easy to overlook because the financial press never runs scary stories about it. You can never eliminate all forms of risk, just decide which ones apply to your situa...
by telemark
Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4115

Re: "Shellshock" vulnerability for Linux based systems

I tested my router, an off-the-shelf Actiontec C1000A, and it too runs BusyBox. Since I was there anyway, I checked the openssl version as well.
Code: Select all
# openssl version 
OpenSSL 0.9.7f 22 Mar 2005

Too old for Heartbleed.
by telemark
Sun Sep 28, 2014 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Shellshock" vulnerability for Linux based systems
Replies: 61
Views: 2617

Re: How Long Should I Keep My Car?

My personal rule is to keep it until I get tired of it breaking down. Your tolerance for that is obviously lower than mine. I don't know that a simple rule based on age will work; I would focus more on picking a reliable model and keeping it maintained. I'd also look into having a plan B, because ev...
by telemark
Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long Should I Keep My Car?
Replies: 43
Views: 2990

Re: R u selling PIMCO bond fund

In my old 401K I switched from PTTRX to an index a few years ago, for essentially emotional reasons. Bill would say something spectacularly silly and I'd remember that he was managing some of my money and then I'd have to worry about that for a while. But if I did own it I think this would be the wo...
by telemark
Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: R u selling PIMCO bond fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1822

Re: 'Play Money' - why 5%?

When it comes to asset allocation almost everything is imprecise. Rounding to the nearest 5% simplifies the arithmetic and avoids creating the false impression that we can fine-tune allocations with any accuracy. In contrast, we can measure expense ratios down to the last basis point (although I do ...
by telemark
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Play Money' - why 5%?
Replies: 42
Views: 1600

Re: what is risk?

Yet another type of risk is opportunity cost, the money you don't make while waiting for something that may never happen. This one is easy to overlook because the financial press never runs scary stories about it. You can never eliminate all forms of risk, just decide which ones apply to your situat...
by telemark
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4115

Re: Time to go back to cash and ditch the Credit Card?

There are several studies that show that people using credit cards spend much more than those using cash. I wonder... there was a study recently that concluded that people who take vitamins are healthier, not because of the vitamins, but because they're the sort of people who take vitamins. Perhaps...
by telemark
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to go back to cash and ditch the Credit Card?
Replies: 39
Views: 3168

Re: what is risk?

Volatility is a simple way of modeling risk. Like all models, it can be useful as long as you understand its limitations. In practice there are many different kinds of risk; for example, bonds are subject to default risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, etc. and these may show up at different ti...
by telemark
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4115

Re: Time to go back to cash and ditch the Credit Card?

I use cash for most of my everyday purchases, which helps to avoid compromised point of sale systems. My overall spending level is far enough below my income that I don't bother tracking everything. But I buy too much stuff online not to have a credit card, and it's handy for larger amounts.
by telemark
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to go back to cash and ditch the Credit Card?
Replies: 39
Views: 3168

Re: "Shellshock" vulnerability for Linux based systems

For my Linux desktop, I'm applying updates as they appear in the repositories. The third one came in this morning. But since I'm not running any servers that are visible to the internet, the chances of it being a problem for my system are fairly low. The bigger worry is that web sites I use might be...
by telemark
Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Shellshock" vulnerability for Linux based systems
Replies: 61
Views: 2617

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Most of the stock you own now has a very low basis. You are now going to buy a small amount with a much higher basis. This is unlikely to matter much. I think you're overthinking this.
by telemark
Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 4671

70-year-old seeks new hobby

His recent history suggests that Gross enjoys making big bets on macro predictions, and PIMCO was probably not the best place to do that. A Global Unconstrained Bond Fund sounds like a better fit, and the Janus fund is small enough to let him maneuver freely. Maybe PTTRX just wasn't fun any more.
by telemark
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 107
Views: 8329

Re: FTBFX vs FSITX [Fidelity Total Bond vs. Spartan Bond]

If you look at the end of 2008, the managed fund did significantly worse than the index, just when you really wanted your bonds to be safe.
by telemark
Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTBFX vs FSITX [Fidelity Total Bond vs. Spartan Bond]
Replies: 10
Views: 718

Re: "Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC"

I hadn't realized the bond market was that illiquid. Quite a contrast to the high-frequency trading on the stock exchange. Is this a disadvantage for bond index funds, since they have to buy and sell constantly as individual bonds mature? How do the Vanguard funds manage this?
by telemark
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?
Replies: 22
Views: 1537

Re: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?

There are many roads to fitness, and a rowing machine is one of the better ones. The biggest risk with any home fitness machine is that it will turn into an expensive clothes rack*, so I second the suggestion to find somewhere to try one first. * The converse of this is that you can often find good ...
by telemark
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?
Replies: 48
Views: 1913

Re: how to prevent medical expense catastrophe?

The article is intended to outrage people, and as a sympathetic reader I suppose I ought to be outraged. But... The insurance company agreed to pay the bill and sent the patient a check. Instead of forwarding the money as intended, the patient then tried to use his position as holder of the money to...
by telemark
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to prevent medical expense catastrophe?
Replies: 174
Views: 7542

Re: Please Help with 401K Investment Options

I see your plan is administered through Fidelity. You need to click on the tab labeled Fees, second from the right, to see the costs for each fund. But the Spartan indexes are probably your best bet.
by telemark
Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help with 401K Investment Options
Replies: 5
Views: 398

Re: Leeraar's Three-Holding Portfolio

I think the problem with balanced and target funds in taxable is not so much that they contain bonds as it is the daily rebalancing which generates taxable events. Your plan avoids this, but you will still need to rebalance occasionally and now you need a spreadsheet to do it. Not sure how that is a...
by telemark
Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leeraar's Three-Holding Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 2134

Re: What are the components of inflation?

Inflation: too much money sloshing around and driving prices up.

Deflation: the money gets trapped in deep puddles from which it can't escape, leading prices to fall.

See? It is simple :D
by telemark
Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the components of inflation?
Replies: 33
Views: 1649

Vanguard web site now showing daily change as %

I complained some time ago that Vanguard's web site only showed daily changes in dollar amounts, e.g. fund XYZZY is up $0.13, FNORD is down $2.12, etc. Just noticed that they now show both the dollar amount and the percentage change, which I personally find much more useful. Good job Vanguard!
by telemark
Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard web site now showing daily change as %
Replies: 2
Views: 644

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

From an epistemological standpoint, an unfalsifiable theory is meaningless. I agree, but the thing to remember is that investing is not a science. You can't do repeatable experiments, studies of the past are highly sensitive to the period chosen, and we can't even be certain that the rules don't ch...
by telemark
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7637

Re: We have a grocery problem... [Household budget]

He's not a cooker - he can do easy things like things from a box and can grill, but he does not know how to make big meals (his dinner almost every night when he was a bachelor was hamburger helper) and we cannot grill at our apartment. He makes breakfast though. Sounds a lot like me :happy One sug...
by telemark
Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We have a grocery problem... [Household budget]
Replies: 158
Views: 10631

Re: New and Trying to Make Good Decisions

Those are great 401K plans. I wish mine was that good. In your place I would be trying to move some of your cash on hand into the 401K plans. You can't do this directly, but you can get the same effect indirectly by maxing your 401K contributions and spending down the cash to make up the difference.
by telemark
Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New and Trying to Make Good Decisions
Replies: 17
Views: 1224

Re: What Movie Have You [Recently] Watched?

We have recently watched a couple of Netflix sub-titled foreign movies. One was a 1997 German film "Comedian Harmonists". We were inspired to view this film by the recent Barry Manilow musical "Harmony" that we happened to see about the same 1920's/30's group. JW Netflix recomme...
by telemark
Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 105
Views: 4489

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Alex, I guess I just get tired of the one-liner posts that say "Stay the course" or "Tune out the news". Those kind of posts tend to overshadow the more thoughtful posts that do point to more variety in Boglehead investing. So I guess I was just railing against the stereotype, n...
by telemark
Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7637

Re: Inflation Bonds - Staying the Course?

Rebalancing as needed. I own TIPS as a diversifier, so will happily buy more if the price drops.

As for the Yahoo article, I would treat that as noise. We've seen a lot of very wrong predictions about inflation, especially when the Fed is involved, and this sounds like more of the same.
by telemark
Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Bonds - Staying the Course?
Replies: 43
Views: 3146

Re: Convert from Investor to Admiral?

You can convert it manually as described, or if you wait long enough Vanguard will do it for you. I don't remember what the waiting period, as I usually get excited and convert as soon as possible :)
by telemark
Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert from Investor to Admiral?
Replies: 6
Views: 840

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

In the future, people will not own any mutual funds or stocks and bonds in their retirement accounts. There will be no asset allocation or rebalancing to worry about. No small-cap value vs. total stock market. No 100% stocks vs. age in bonds. No glide paths, safe-withdrawal rates, lazy portfolios, ...
by telemark
Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7637

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

The whole point of Boglehead investing is "getting your fair share." By definition, before costs, only 50% of the money can beat the market. Once we take into consideration index funds cost less than active funds, on average, index funds MUST outperform active funds. This is a rather stro...
by telemark
Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7637

Re: Very lost on random inherited bonds in portfolio

Boglegrappler wrote: You have what amounts to a two year note with a 6% + coupon, a five year note at 5.72, and a three year note at 5.70.

Far better than you can get with the junkiest of high yield bonds. If you had the opportunity to buy new fixed income today at these yields, would you take it?
by telemark
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very lost on random inherited bonds in portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 635

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

A large majority of active managers outperforming the index, after fees, would be pretty decisive, but I don't much expect to see that. On the other hand, I already know I'm wrong, in the sense that I'm not 100.00000% correct, and that my portfolio is not optimal. Fortunately I'm content to be satis...
by telemark
Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7637

Re: External backup drives - Seagate vs Western Digital

I don't have any personal experience, but I notice the Wirecutter recommends buying an empty NAS enclosure and filling it with drives you buy separately. They explain their reasoning here http://thewirecutter.com/reviews/zyxel-nsa310-best-cheap-nas/
by telemark
Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: External backup drives - Seagate vs Western Digital
Replies: 43
Views: 2732

Re: Glitchy Web-Browsing

retiredjg wrote:I have a couple of user accounts. I tried them and the guest account - all have the problem.

Ok, that eliminates user settings, so it's probably something with your new ISP, or possibly your wifi network. Did your new provider give you a new router or modem?
by telemark
Sat Sep 13, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Glitchy Web-Browsing
Replies: 22
Views: 1155

Re: Glitchy Web-Browsing

Create a new OS X user account, log in to that, and see if you have the same problems there. This should tell us if the problem is something in your user settings or, as seems more likely, something to do with your new "internet source." To create a new account, go to System Preferences an...
by telemark
Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Glitchy Web-Browsing
Replies: 22
Views: 1155

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

Did your professor also mention Galloping Gertie ? I don't remember him doing so but I watched a great documentary on it. To be fair to the designers they were really pushing the state of the art at that time, still it stands as a pretty substantial warning not underestimate the value of safety fac...
by telemark
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 9766

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

When I was going to college for engineering back in the early 90s I had a professor who described the profession this way "An engineer is someone who can do for $1 what any idiot could do for $2". His classic example was bridge building since you could build a bridge fairly simply by drop...
by telemark
Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 9766

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

The dangerous practice of rebalancing hasn't only been blessed by Congress, but has been mandated by law. The Pension Protection Act of 2006 specifies that those with 401(k)'s who don't make an investment choice are forced into one of the following: These are strange new meanings for mandated and f...
by telemark
Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14035

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

MPT is a useful framework for thinking about investments and markets, even though it is almost certainly not correct in every detail. As one speaker at an engineering conference I attended said in a plenary lecture, "A theory doesn't have to be right to be useful." Not completely right, a...
by telemark
Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 9766

Re: Citi: Just use leverage for 10% bond returns

If you want to see the effects of bond leverage, about 5x or 6x, just follow some mortgage reits. A mortgage reit ETF is MORT. Paul Hilarious ticker symbol if you speak French. :) Made me look :happy According to Google , mortgage derives from the old French for "death pledge." Further br...
by telemark
Thu Sep 11, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Citi: Just use leverage for 10% bond returns
Replies: 28
Views: 3060
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