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Re: What is safest vehicle on the road today?

They don't appear to be tied in the informedforlife rating system, so why do you think that. IIHS explains here why you cannot use their ratings to compare vehicles that have different weights: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/frontal-crash-tests The NHTSA web site says that their rati...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 83
Views: 4305

Re: What is safest vehicle on the road today?

2015 MERCEDES-BENZ ML-CLASS SUV 4WD because this site says so: http://www.informedforlife.org/ There are 5 other cars tied with that MB for 2015 models. Check out iihs.org as well. They will tell you the details and recommend the Top safety picks They don't appear to be tied in the informedforlife ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 83
Views: 4305

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Rick Ferri wrote:I have not, but that doesn't mean anything in the big picture.

Rick Ferri


Planning to do it doesn't mean anything in the big picture.

I have been 50/50 domestic/international for years and your 70/30 has made more money, but this doesn't mean anything in the big picture.
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: Part B or not Part B, that is the question

It seems too expensive when you are a young and healthy 65-year-old, but later it might not seem so expensive. So it's hard to judge based on one's past experience at any point, I think. Low option GEHA + Medicare Part B costs the same as High option GEHA alone, so I think that part will be a wash....
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part B or not Part B, that is the question
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Part B or not Part B, that is the question

heartwood wrote:You might check if there's a penalty if you don't take Part B at 65 and later decide you want Part B. There may also be a limited annual enrollment window if you don't enroll at 65.


There is a penalty.
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part B or not Part B, that is the question
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Part B or not Part B, that is the question

My wife is a retired federal employee and I am covered by her health insurance. I am nearing 65 and trying to figure out if I should get Medicare Part B. My wife who is nearing 70 signed up for it when she joined Medicare. But I am not sure if she should continue it. We are using the GEHA low optio...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part B or not Part B, that is the question
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Part B or not Part B, that is the question

I'm not sure either. I decided to get Part B and switch to GEHA low (from GEHA high) and see how it worked out - thinking that Part B can be dropped later if it is not that helpful. Best I can tell, if you buy Part B, you pay less for services (maybe almost nothing because the 2 coverages would cov...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part B or not Part B, that is the question
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Part B or not Part B, that is the question

My wife got Part B and her medical bills after insurance have been very low, close to nothing. She was refused by some GPs because she was on Medicare, but she did find one that she was already going to that would keep her. If you have a high income for a year (due to property sale or something) the...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part B or not Part B, that is the question
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Inherited farmland: Should we sell or keep?

How much are the capital gains if you sell? As far as I know, paying cap gains is the main drawback to selling. I don't think the market is depressed, so it's probably as good a time as any to sell. I'd probably sell it at auction or at least get it appraised. OP said inheritance, so stepped up bas...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inherited farmland: Should we sell or keep?
Replies: 40
Views: 2811

Re: Inherited farmland: Should we sell or keep?

I owned inherited farmland for a couple of decades. The renters son who ran a recapping company dumped tires in a gully on the land. I called the son and told him to remove the tires. Next thing I hear, the tires were burned in the gully. A sub-letting farmer claimed he started the fire by accident ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inherited farmland: Should we sell or keep?
Replies: 40
Views: 2811

Part B or not Part B, that is the question

My wife is a retired federal employee and I am covered by her health insurance. I am nearing 65 and trying to figure out if I should get Medicare Part B. My wife who is nearing 70 signed up for it when she joined Medicare. But I am not sure if she should continue it. We are using the GEHA low option...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part B or not Part B, that is the question
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I think Rick has some good ideas. I wish I had considered his idea of putting your taxable in your AA rather than all in stocks. I sold a farm a few years ago near age 60. It was the first time I had to invest in taxable and I put it all in stocks. But I was 60 and my wife had retired and I use that...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy

Bengineer wrote: "accident avoidance" is marketing. It's all over before you have time to do more than hit the brakes and sometimes before that.


ESC functions largely via "accident avoidance". The NHTSA measurements a few years ago found that it prevents 1/3 of fatalities.
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 83
Views: 4305

Re: What is safest vehicle on the road today?

freebeer wrote:...a monster SUV will be significantly safer, even a big pickup that doesn't have to meet all the safety regs.


That's not true in general, weight does not always trump everything else. That's not the position of www.informedforlife.org
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 83
Views: 4305

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I don't know of anyone who never makes or advocates shifts in asset allocations. But, how many of them advocate waiting for a dip? With his predictions about defaults and overreactions in 2015, Rick seems to violate the rule "pay attention to base rates" that was laid out in the book Think...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy

I recommend a midsize car (Accord-size) that has electronic stability control (ESC), daytime running lights (DRLs) and good crash ratings. One can get a used cars in that category even on a limited budget. If I wanted to add something to that, the first thing I would add is side air bags, but they a...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 83
Views: 4305

Re: What is safest vehicle on the road today?

2015 MERCEDES-BENZ ML-CLASS SUV 4WD because this site says so:

http://www.informedforlife.org/
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 83
Views: 4305

Re: Another Florida Keys question

A road trip to Largo from KW is not convenient. If you want to do a side trip from KW, I think Dry Tortugas (not by car of course) would be good one, but I have not been to Dry Tortugas. Zachary Taylor Fort is an OK place near KW to do a little snorkeling if the wind direction from there is out to s...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another Florida Keys question
Replies: 15
Views: 1923

Re: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversificatio

Holding some SCV and increasing bond duration appears to me to be a pretty good substitute for REITs and vice versa. Holding some SCV and increasing bond duration would probably appear (in a back test) to be a good substitute for just about any equity allocation. Not sure there is anything special ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversification?
Replies: 38
Views: 3553

Re: Is 2007 Accord 60K mile service worth $300?

So, if you do it yourself, how do you turn the maintenance indicator off? (The "B", in this case.). Or do you just ignore it, and tell the dealer to ignore it if you want to use the dealer for some work?
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is 2007 Accord 60K mile service worth $300?
Replies: 54
Views: 4386

Re: Can I incorporate stop loss into this investment philoso

What asset allocation (AA) are you considering? Might be better to have conservative AA and buy and hold.
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I incorporate stop loss into this investment philosophy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1587

Re: John Bogle possible mistake? Discussion

It's a bit of a myth that time diversification is a myth. Suppose you had 2 choices: 1. Bet everything you ever saved 40 years of compounded market performance. 2. Bet everything you ever saved on the performance of a single randomly chosen year. You are more likely to have a gain with #1. Compounde...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 53
Views: 5004

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

From your blog: If these defaults do occur, there will be temporary contagion in all emerging markets similar to the Russian default in 1998. In 1998, the temporary contagion hit the US market hard. If I read the charts correctly VTSMX (the US Total stock market) had a bigger dip than VGTSX (Vanguar...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I'd cut Mr. Ferri some slack here. If he rebalanced at end of 2014 without increasing his desired int'l allocation, then he bought int'l because int'l did poorly in 2014. Then because in'tl has been doing better than US so far this year, he could simply not rebalance from Int'l to US. That by itsel...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

If they just keep outperforming, you are missing the train. They might! But I believe this is a very long train. Rick :happy Quoting from your blog: My Expected Investment Changes in 2015 January 1, 2015 By Rick Ferri Over the coming year, I believe the opportunity may present itself for another ch...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

he predicts all this amazing stuff about international equities in the blog (none of which has come true so far), It hasn't? International is not outperforming this year? I must have missed something. Please fill me in. FWIW, as I stated in the blog, I plan to increase my allocation to internationa...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Any update from Rick on this yet? I would be surprised if Rick is on board with the Total International Bond Index Fund. Read Rick's blog in the OP. He said nothing about bonds. It's about the fact that is he overweight in domestic equities and is waiting for a dip in international equities to even...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Yes, but there is still time for those sovereign defaults that Ferri predicted to kick in and cause Intl to dip due to an investor overreaction that Ferri also predicted to happen before the end of 2015 offering him an opportunity shift to a neutral allocation at a relative profit a la dip. It's 8 m...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 351
Views: 46462

Re: The Detriments of Rebalancing

A 50/50 portfolio of two components with expected returns of 7% and 3% would have a combined expected return of 5% -- WITHOUT REBALANCING. Rebalancing over time will move assets out of the higher returning portion of the portfolio and thereby lower the overall expected return below 5% . I do not se...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Detriments of Rebalancing
Replies: 67
Views: 5776

Re: Tesla to start making Batteries for Home Solar

"A separate battery replacement guarantee takes effect after the eighth year at a cost of US$10,000 for the 60 kWh battery and US$12,000 for the 85 kWh battery.[66]" from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S that's where I pulled the $10k from. Thanks. That makes sense. But that is ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla to start making Batteries for Home Solar
Replies: 61
Views: 4245

Re: Tesla to start making Batteries for Home Solar

Tesla is already doing this with Solarcity and here is some info on cost: ...a 10-kWh Tesla battery (to power the refrigerator, lights, etc. in a power outage) under a 10-year lease for a $1500 upfront cost + $15/month. That amounts to $3300 over 10 years. http://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/03/solarci...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 01, 2015 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla to start making Batteries for Home Solar
Replies: 61
Views: 4245

Re: Whats a good multi vitamin?

There is no good evidence for any:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivitamin
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whats a good multi vitamin?
Replies: 17
Views: 1261

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

Read this earlier post in this thread it's and it's supporting reference: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=91972&p=1582557 and you will understand that it was proven long ago that DCA is warranted if and only if selling out is warranted. This is a mathematical proof that ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 6788

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

If you believe markets are at least weak form efficient (i do), then current prices shouldn't influence your decision. Mathematically, lump sum is much better. But if you wish to get emotionally involved and dca then you'll probably pay for it with a hefty opportunity cost. This applies to bonds as...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 6788

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

However, when you're already invested, your purchase price is no longer (prudently, reasonably) subject to diversification. It's fixed. I don't get that. I can log on to Vanguard right now and shift all my equities to cash, wait a month, and move back into equities. You can tinker with the purchase...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 6788

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up. Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous. There is a boat-load of research on it: https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/7482/Portfol...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 137
Views: 11615

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Maynard F. Speer wrote:Really simple idea: Just test a 100% Stock Market vs 100% Value allocation on PV
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... allocation


Thanks, that was helpful.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 648

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Does anyone have any info that would illuminate the historical risk-adjusted performance of value index funds vs cap-weighed index funds. Just a point of terminology - I believe that many (most?) value index funds are also cap-weighted. Perhaps you meant value index vs. blend index (total index? gr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 648

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

There is a chart of Wellington vs SP500 total return from 1/1979 to 10/2014 http://remonsy.com/daily/vanguard-etf-funds/vanguard-wellington-analyzed/ The main difference is that Wellington did not participate in the "bubble" from 1990 to 2001, but it was on par with the SP500 in mid 2001. ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 648

Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Does anyone have any info that would illuminate the historical risk-adjusted performance of value index funds vs cap-weighed index funds. Of course, value indexed and dividend indexed funds don't go back too far and SP500 index funds are only 40 year or so old. Something like Sharpe Ratio of the Wel...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 648

Re: Is There a Next Jack Bogle

In the OP link, Jeremy Siegel said: He believes Bogle will be proven wrong in due course as fundamental index ETFs develop a long-term record of superior risk-adjusted returns. “The proof will be in the pudding,” Will some alternative index fund be the next performance leader? Or will cap-weighted i...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There a Next Jack Bogle
Replies: 37
Views: 3936

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Vanguard says you have a responsibility to peek as an anti-fraud measure:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/S ... ontent.jsp

But monitoring your email from Vanguard seems to be a good anti-fraud practice, if you can keep your email account secure.
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 137
Views: 11615

Re: Malkiel's "Random Walk..." Questions

If you decide to use his Life-Cycle asset allocation plan in the book, beware that it has been known to change from one edition of the book to the next.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's "Random Walk..." Questions
Replies: 28
Views: 2553

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

I bought on a dip in 1998. Later I read about the secret Fed meetings to figure out what to do about the fact that LTCM had just gone belly up taking most equity insurance down the drain with it. I could have been buying into a 2008-like panic.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12583

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

livesoft wrote:Looks to me like lots of folks took some action.

My asset allocation is out of balance, so I will be rebalancing.


There was a actionable dip almost everyday for a period after mid 2008, so I am surprised you have any money left :)
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12583

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Title says it all. For those waiting for a dip in the market to invest, did you catch it? The dip has come and gone. It was incredibly actionable. This is why those rebalancing studies say there is no point in rebalancing. It's because those studies never catch the dip. … I'm back to waiting for th...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12583

Re: The Ignorance Survey

Not sure how this shows "Ignorance" about "the world".... unless you happen to have memorized population statistics.... A tad narrow to use such a sweeping term IMO :-) This is the way the survey characterizes itself: The aim with these surveys is to understand how pronounced an...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ignorance Survey
Replies: 5
Views: 770

The Ignorance Survey

I heard about this on GPS. People who think they are knowledgeable about the world do worse than random on some. 2015 Davos attendees did worse than random on some. It's a good detector of incorrect beliefs about the current status and the future of the world. The answers are right below the questio...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ignorance Survey
Replies: 5
Views: 770

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

F 2040 1/2015 is not the same allocation as F 2050 1/2025, 25 years from retirement in both cases. That means they are projecting AA's that vary depending on the future calendar year. Interesting.
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9520

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

There is a discontinuity at January 2014. That's when Mercer revised the L Funds to reflect new projection with a higher probability of future interest rate increases. For the 2050 fund F did dominate before 2014. 9%/4% F/G in 10/2013 shifted to 2%/11% in 1/2014. How much can we believe their effic...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9520
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