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Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

Good post, but, FYI, anti-lock brakes (ABS) never measured out as a safety feature, that's why it was around for decades and was never mandated until it was required as a base feature for ESC. Some studies even seemed to show that ABS costs lives. You can retrofit that Acadia with a FCW system from ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

Why do these stories never consider the chances that your kid kills someone else? Put an inexperienced driver in a tank and if he has an accident, he gets a greater chance of being the one who walks away while the person in the normal sized car he hit dies. This is the issue with choosing a big, he...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 21, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

I'll buy the ESC, there is strong data to support that. But major safety improvements like ESC don't happen every year. Maybe not even every 10 years. Anybody in the car industry here know of anything in the pipeline that would even approach the breakthrough that ESC was? And I can't help but think...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 21, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

What's safer... A 2004 Tahoe or a 2014 Civic? I would take the Tahoe. Many 10 year old cars still have most of the modern safety features that matter. Informed for Life thinks the 2010 Civic is much safer than the 2004 Tahoe w/o ESC. They score it 64 vs 130: http://www.informedforlife.org/demos/FCK...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 21, 2014 11:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

I'll buy the ESC, there is strong data to support that. But major safety improvements like ESC don't happen every year. Maybe not even every 10 years. Anybody in the car industry here know of anything in the pipeline that would even approach the breakthrough that ESC was? And I can't help but think...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 21, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

I wonder which car would meet all the specifications--being heavy enough and incorporating all the safety features? See here: http://www.informedforlife.org But, if you are on a budget, just make sure you get ESC in a used car. ESC gives you the best safety bang for the buck of all other safety fea...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 20, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

In other words, buy your teenager an expensive new car? I have a blog that can help one get a less expensive used car with ESC: http://epicurusgarden.blogspot.com/2011/09/how-to-buy-used-car-with-esc.html ESC alone accounts for a relatively large proportion of the safety advantage of new cars. It's...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 20, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Don't be tempted to read articles by people who can't re

In order to determine if older cars are more dangerous you need four pieces of information: 1) Number of accidents in older cars. 2) Number of accidents in newer cars. 3) Exposure (number miles driven or similar) in older cars. 4) Exposure in newer cars. They could at least try but no, they only ga...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 20, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: We made our own Will

Using the term "per stirpes" is a way to get inheritance to go to grandchildren. I don't know the limits of it usage and I don't know the details of what you were trying to accomplish.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: We made our own Will
Replies: 52
Views: 3484

Re: Help with an adults only all-inclusive

Villa Rolandi is nice:

http://www.villarolandi.com/

The prices may be high. We when the early in 2009 when the world economy was tanking a there were special cut-rate deals.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with an adults only all-inclusive
Replies: 19
Views: 2435

Re: "The Arithmetic of Active Management"

The author suggests that in a rising interest rate environment active more often outperforms. Sometimes Investor: In rising or declining interest rate environments, the average active fund MUST underperform. Here's proof by Nobel Laureate, William Sharpe: THE ARITHMETIC OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT . Best ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1589

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

Kevin M wrote:
Browser wrote:Stocks are actually more risky when they're going down, not less risky.

I don't know when stocks are going down. I only know that they have gone down. I don't know what they'll do tomorrow, or even the next minute.


+1

To paraphrase Ayn Rand, check your premises for misleading verb tenses.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4837

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

Of all the developed countries, the US has the lowest gas prices, followed by Australia and Canada. US gas prices are more than twice those in Canada: http://www.gasbuddy.com/GB_Price_List.aspx?cntry=CAN Those are loonies per liter. Multiply by .87 * 3.79 = 3.30 to get greenbacks per gallon. Opps, ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 92
Views: 8673

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

Valuethinker wrote:Of all the developed countries, the US has the lowest gas prices, followed by Australia and Canada.


US gas prices are more than twice those in Canada:

http://www.gasbuddy.com/GB_Price_List.aspx?cntry=CAN
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 92
Views: 8673

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

Because of the reason he gives for this providing this advice: I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers. I feel sure that I and every Boglehead I k...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8140

Don't change unless you are a speculator.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/bogle-advises-investing-no-more-than-20-outside-u-s-~aTVUz88QYq0B~XX~FmTJg.html Interesting talk here. I'm personally 25% international per my IP, which I'm comfortable with. Thoughts? But he also said don't change your allocation outside the US even if you are at 52%...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11560

Re: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?

The answer is simple: He likes simple approaches. He used the word simple 4 times in that letter, he used the word complicated only once, and that for something that should be avoided.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?
Replies: 29
Views: 2706

Re: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?

Ijim wrote:Why, in 2013, does he suggest the VG S&P 500, not the VG total US Stock index?


It appears to be a binding specification to the trustee of his estate, not a suggestion.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?
Replies: 29
Views: 2706

Re: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?

The letter gives his goal: I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-recommends-sp-500-ind...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?
Replies: 29
Views: 2706

Re: Helping adult child understand investing

My daughter ask about retirement investing and I just suggested the appropriate Vanguard Target Retirement Fund and told her that it would go down sometimes and she would need to stick with it. That is what she did. Here is info on the L funds: https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/lfundsheet/fundPerf...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping adult child understand investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1855

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

Right now, I am trying to understand Kierkergaard. In Fear and Trembling , he wrote "For without risk there is no faith, and the greater the risk the greater the faith." I want to relate it to other notions of risk. Victoria He's claiming that your typical church goer is not getting a ris...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 9703

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

I have recently became interested in existentialism and may start reading existentialists. For now, I am reading about their ideas. Here are suggestions that a normal person can get through: Man's Search for Meaning by Victor Frankel is a good. It may be only book by an existentialist that is compr...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 9703

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Shiller PE ratio is almost useless in telling us where the market is going in the next year. But it is breath-takingly powerful in telling us what kinds of returns to expect on a five to ten year basis. It is nothing of the sort. PE10 is a correlation based on historical data. To then say it is the...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Should I time the market?

My sources say No.

Will my withdrawal rate be safe?

Reply hazy, try again.

Boy, you are pretty good, are you more accurate than Boglehead posts?

It is decidedly so.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 120
Views: 7885

Re: Ruminations on Timing with PE10

The 0.66% figure is biased since the PE10 timing trigger optimized for the dataset used to measure it. I have never seen a study where a PE10 timing procedure was tested outside of the sample used to optimize it's parameter(s).
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Timing with PE10
Replies: 3
Views: 430

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

Still being new to BH investing, I haven't depleted all of my "stupid" questions yet. So your BH investing and staying the course, you have your AA. IF the market were to fall drastically and you could stomach it (not sure I could) would a BH "tweak" their AA towards slightly st...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9339

Ruminations on Timing with PE10

I thought this was an interesting and simple analysis of timing using PE10 http://www.financialarchitectsllc.com/Ruminations%20Files/Ruminations%20on%20Market%20Timing%20with%20the%20PE10.pdf The PE10 negative correlation with future returns makes such timing look like a nobrainer. But for a simple ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Timing with PE10
Replies: 3
Views: 430

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

One of the things I like about John C. Bogle is that he is not doctrinaire (and thus he is inconsistent). There are even more inconsistencies for you to like. In other places, Bogle defines RTM and the magnetism of the mean as the tendency of all investments to tend toward average in the future reg...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 120
Views: 7885

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

My personal touchstone for "Boglehead" is Twelve Pillars of Wisdom . Pillar 7. The Powerful Magnetism of the Mean In the world of investing, the mean is a powerful magnet that pulls financial market returns toward it, causing returns to deteriorate after they exceed historical norms by su...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 120
Views: 7885

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

I get off the tracks in that scenario, but that's just me. Some walking down railroad tracks stay the course and ignore the noise. Not sure what they recommend in the case of a visual sighting of said train. The problem is that you might never see the train coming, just a bunch of people telling yo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9339

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

There are always going to be extreme pessimists and optimists foretelling doom or utopia in the stock market. Nonetheless, not all Bogleheads are efficient market theorists, and without a crystal ball, there might still be rational reasons to expect a major correction within a frame of time . Obvio...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9339

Re: getting umbrella insurance

What questions will the insurance company ask? Just want to be prepared... I get my umbrella insurance from RLI. They send me a checklist to complete. How many homes are cars to I own. Do I have enough home and auto liability insurance on each. Ages of drivers. Watercraft owned, I'd never thought a...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting umbrella insurance
Replies: 25
Views: 1532

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

How much is going to be highly variable depending an individual's situation. The BIG savings is if, by using mass transit, one can reduce the need having a car altogether. Either going from 2 cars down to one or becoming car free. Cars spend 95% or more of their life just sitting. They have high fi...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4151

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

Not putting many miles on your car can be detrminental to its "health." You'll want to move the car so the tires don't get flat spots. You also should drive at highway speeds twice per month for around 20 minutes. Be generous in giving the car time to warm up after it has been sitting (pe...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4151

How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

This is a question that I have never gotten a good answer to. If you start vanpooling, then you reduce the use of one of your cars. But, typically you still need the car, you just have reduced usage. The reimbursement rate for use of your own car is around 50 cents per mile these days, but I think t...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4151

Re: Vacation in France

Sound like you are doing OK with savings over all. Go for it! A cheap airbnb flat in Paris on a nice street with lots of food shops is cheaper than a hotel and more romantic. I stayed in one on Rue Lourmel near the Duplex metro station. It had a small balcony with a view of the Eiffel Tower. There w...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation in France
Replies: 96
Views: 6999

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

I just follow my eating policy statement.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Does anyone know what percentage of pesticide residue is on the inside of fruits vs on the skins? Would the same percentage hold for natural pesticides? TIA precisely 13.62462 percent. Can I round that up? :) Round it down to get less pesticides. Victoria Rounding up may be as dangerous as eating c...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

Maybe someone here knows financial engines better but when I look at their site they seem to only be advising those currently working rather than advising those already retired about having an appropriate AA. I am trying to figure out how to use the G Fund optimally in my retirement AA. My wife &am...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2783

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Does anyone know what percentage of pesticide residue is on the inside of fruits vs on the skins? Would the same percentage hold for natural pesticides? TIA The plant itself produces lots of natural pesticides. They don't wash off. For the applied (organic or conventional) pesticides, I don't know ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: Advice for Another Mother

If you are managing her account at Vanguard, it is best that you set set up a Vanguard Agent Authorization.
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Another Mother
Replies: 14
Views: 2241

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

Overall, seems to me that there is not a lot of detailed info on how it works in an AA. Most recommended AAs don't include it. The only ones I know of that do include it are the TSP L Funds and http://www.financialengines.com Financial Engines and the G Fund? Yes, this service has been offered for ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2783

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

Come to think of it, the firm that calculates the TSP L Fund AAs (Mercer) uses the G Fund as the risk free rate for the efficient frontier. That's how one should classify it. TBM is never used as the risk free rate. I think that short treasuries and MM funds are used as the risk free rate. Maybe TIP...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2783

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

It's literally not TBM or TIPS. And, it certainly behaves differently from TBM and TIPS. I could be considered cash or an MM with a higher rate. It's more like that, I think. When used in an efficient frontier calculation, it creates a flatter curve by providing relatively better returns in the low ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2783

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

I had a small garden where I grew zucchini. I took my first raw zucchini of the season to work as part of my lunch. When I tasted it, it seemed bitter. But I figured it was just because I was not use to eating raw zucchini. I put some salt on it (knowing that salt covers bitterness) a took another ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

I had a small garden where I grew zucchini. I took my first raw zucchini of the season to work as part of my lunch. When I tasted it, it seemed bitter. But I figured it was just because I was not use to eating raw zucchini. I put some salt on it (knowing that salt covers bitterness) a took another b...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Organic farmers use pesticides. They just use different pesticides. For instance, Rotenone is an organic pesticide that has been used widely and heavily in organic farming, not so much in farming that can use a wider variety of pesticides. It has been discovered that Rotenone causes Parkinson's dise...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Fruits and veggies have lots of natural pesticides.

I once had a bad case food poisoning from a couple of bites from a zucchini that had excessive levels of cucurbiticin, a natural pesticide.

Also, organic farmers use a long list of approved pesticides. They use different pesticides.
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 7458

Re: Bogleheads not found easily in Google

EmergDoc wrote:You guys are aware that Google results are personalized, right? But I still get Bogleheads as the first result for "investment forum" whether the results are personalized or non-personalized.


How do you search non-personalized?
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads not found easily in Google
Replies: 30
Views: 3672
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