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Re: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?

I think an umbrella policy would be worth it. After all, having your wages garnished for he rest of your life due to a driving error would kinda take a bit of the fun out of it, no? You can get a policy for less that a dollar a day. You probably could not get one that costs more than three dollars a...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 24, 2013 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?
Replies: 38
Views: 2088

Re: Role of a Notary

Notary responsibilities are different in different states.

There may be a requirement that the Notary at least knows the nature of the document being notarized. I don't think they have the authority to notarize all types of documents in all states.
by tadamsmar
Fri May 24, 2013 7:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Role of a Notary
Replies: 7
Views: 474

Re: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?

Just how frequently I re-evaluate and make adjustments? The wiki suggest comparing your plan with its objectives once per year, and says that investment program changes must be small: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_Policy_Statement But, frankly, small changes have small effects, and it's...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 24, 2013 5:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?
Replies: 38
Views: 2088

Re: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?

I will re-evaluate and rebalance my asset allocation every 6 months, with each asset class staying within 5% of its target allocation. An alternative it so simply commit to an asset allocation and a clearly specified rebalancing procedure. Or, as an alternative, commit to an asset allocation schedu...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2013 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?
Replies: 38
Views: 2088

Re: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?

Generally a good job. These clauses seem a bit vague, they imply unspecified considerations and re-evaluations: Rather, I may consider new stock positions or adding to current positions when discounts to the market present themselves. I will re-evaluate and rebalance my asset allocation every 6 mont...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 23, 2013 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just finished a draft of my IPS, critiques?
Replies: 38
Views: 2088

Re: I think I'm getting phished

I can't find any messages from Vanguard that do not have links to the home page at the top (in the ship logo image) and at the bottom (at "Home"). All my email messages from Vanguard have links that take you to a page where you can login to Vanguard.
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2013 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I'm getting phished
Replies: 27
Views: 2447

Re: Vanguard E-Mail

. I think in this case it is from Vanguard even though it has a live (clickable) link, because the link is simply to a page on Vanguard that is available to the public - i.e. it does not require one to log on or provide any personal information to read. The email in fact has a number of clickable l...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 22, 2013 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I'm getting phished
Replies: 27
Views: 2447

Re: Vanguard E-Mail

. I think in this case it is from Vanguard even though it has a live (clickable) link, because the link is simply to a page on Vanguard that is available to the public - i.e. it does not require one to log on or provide any personal information to read. The email in fact has a number of clickable l...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 18, 2013 8:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I'm getting phished
Replies: 27
Views: 2447

Re: Uh, Oh, possible termites on concrete garage floor!

The annual contract will cost $85 to $200 depending on size and construction of your home. You can get protection from repair costs and other costs in the contract. There are different types of treatments and chemicals ranging from bait stations to direct chemical applications. Contact 2 or more ter...
by tadamsmar
Sat May 18, 2013 8:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uh, Oh, possible termites on concrete garage floor!
Replies: 10
Views: 707

Re: Standing Pat

I hope I am doing this right. My broker is Charles Schwab. I recently got some good advice from them as to revising my portfolio allocation. But my present portfolio is returning 10.13% year to date (1/1/13 - 5/16/13). Perhaps because of the present bull market? I would hate to change my present al...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 16, 2013 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Standing Pat
Replies: 5
Views: 489

Re: How safe are Vanguard funds?

She might be freaked out by the price fluctuations of a bond fund. She probably does not understand that all her bond holdings are fluctuating in value in a similar manner. One thing you are perhaps missing is that you really can't predict your Mom's reactions to the changes you are making. As I pos...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 16, 2013 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How safe are Vanguard funds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1529

Re: How safe are Vanguard funds?

ML is a broker, so she apparently does not have a general fear of bankruptcy of brokerages. And, ML did not go bankrupt only because the US government forced BOA to buy ML way above it's market price and book value. Not that her bonds would have got caught up in the bankruptcy. Their value might hav...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 15, 2013 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How safe are Vanguard funds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1529

Re: How safe are Vanguard funds?

Your mother very risk averse. I have the opposite problem with my 90 year old mother-in-law. I got her $100,000+ over to Vanguard and out of an annuity that her broker told her had to be terminated before she turned 90 and which he proposed to put in loaded funds. (He was wrong, perhaps lying, about...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 15, 2013 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How safe are Vanguard funds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1529

Re: HSA question about taking out money

I have around $25K in out-of-pocket medical expenses incurred the last 5 years under my HDHP-HSA (more than half of this is for LTHC insurance premiums). Our HSAs are at $57K. So, I'm going off my HDHP next year for a traditional insurance plan that covers major medical surgery better than the HDHP...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 15, 2013 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA question about taking out money
Replies: 8
Views: 507

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

He's still predicting a crash... Sooner or later he will be right... and then he will claim that he "called it" Remember back in March of 2000 when Robert J. Shiller said "Up till now, I have been bullish, but the market just became irrational and I can confidently predict that this ...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 14, 2013 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 51
Views: 6363

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

Craigr's post is excellent but I just want to emphasize a portion of it which is often overlooked (hence the repeated HBPP vs. Boglehead threads). The Permanent Portfolio has a much different objective than a lot of stock heavy portfolios. This is the real point. The Permanent Portfolio is, accordi...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 12, 2013 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8259

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

Two things wrong with the PP: 1. It assumes a universal constant lifetime risk level. It fixes the cash at 25%. In Modern Portfolio Theory, you invest in the risk-free asset to determine your risk level, it's not a permanent fixed percentage for life, or the same percentage for all. 2. Gold has zero...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 09, 2013 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8259

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

I don't see that owning gold is antithetical to Bogleheadism. Here some efficient frontiers including gold: http://www.merkinvestments.com/downloads/2012-11-27-case-for-gold-portfolio-benefits.pdf The one based on the most data includes only 20 years and that's probably not long enough. And the set ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 08, 2013 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8259

Re: What's the best dandelion killer?

I am enjoying this thread. I plan to try some of the non-chemical suggestions. The OP might want to do one (correctly planned) broadcast application of 2,4-D and then move to non-chemical means to control the relatively few that will reseed in the future, depending on his available time and inclinat...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 08, 2013 10:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the best dandelion killer?
Replies: 54
Views: 2754

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

According to the Kelly Criteria, it's not reckless to bet 1/3 of your capital on this bet. Your capital will average a 14.38% growth rate on each bet. Check for yourself with this Kelly calculator: http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php But, this investment scheme will not get safer the lo...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 08, 2013 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

I am flipping a coin and have gotten 10 heads in a row. What are the odds that I will get another heads? Depends on your prior assumptions about the coin. Before you flipped it, did you assume it was a fair coin? Assume P(heads)=a. Actually, I need more information. If you are certain that P(heads)...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 08, 2013 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: What's the best dandelion killer?

Interesting topic. This EPA brochure discusses the issue: http://www.epa.gov/oppfead1/Publications/catalog/greenscaping.pdf From skimming that, I would say the non-chemical approach is: 1. Manually remove the weeds before they go to seed. 2. Replace grass with some other ground cover or native veget...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the best dandelion killer?
Replies: 54
Views: 2754

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

The way I look at it is the longer you are in the market, the more of a "cushion" you have built up to absorb potential losses. And the loss isn't as bad if the principle isn't affected. For instance, I've only been in the market for about 3-4 months. In that time, I've already built up a...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

I am flipping a coin and have gotten 10 heads in a row. What are the odds that I will get another heads? Depends on your prior assumptions about the coin. Before you flipped it, did you assume it was a fair coin? Assume P(heads)=a. Actually, I need more information. If you are certain that P(heads)...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

Flipping a fair coin is a simple way to illustrate the situation. Your percentage loss on each bet will be constant, it will not get safer the longer you bet. Suppose someone is willing to pay 3 to 1 on each flip. If you get heads, they pay you $3 for each dollar you bet. Obviously this is a favorab...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

rkhusky wrote:I am flipping a coin and have gotten 10 heads in a row. What are the odds that I will get another heads?


Depends on your prior assumptions about the coin. Before you flipped it, did you assume it was a fair coin?
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

The OP say Merton has warned people about stock long run risk. Ironic that Merton founded LTCM, the hedge fund that went bust. In the book Fortune's Formula , Edward Thorpe points out that LTCM was engaging in reckless betting by betting more that the Kelly fraction of working capital that is the ve...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

I think the basic Kelly criterion provides a good model for this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion It just covers up or down bets, but Edward Thorpe extended it stock market applications. Samuelson has argued against use of the Kelly criterion, and Samuelson is a proponent the idea that...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 8:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

I think the basic Kelly criterion provides a good model for this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion It just covers up or down bets, but Edward Thorpe extended it stock market applications. Samuelson has argued against use of the Kelly criterion, and Samuelson is a proponent the idea that ...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 07, 2013 8:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

Among others, in 1979 Paul Samuelson wrote Why We Should Not Make Mean Log of Wealth Big Though Years to Act Are Long Know that life is not a game with net stake of one when you beat your twin, and with net stake of nought when you do not. A win of ten is not the same as a win of two. Nor is a loss...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 06, 2013 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3213

Re: BigMoney Jobs(high school student wants to be rich some

Even in such technical lines as engineering, about 15% of one's financial success is due one's technical knowledge and about 85% is due to skill in human engineering, to personality and the ability to lead people.


Quote from Dale Carnegie's classic How to Win Friends and Influence People
by tadamsmar
Wed May 01, 2013 7:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BigMoney Jobs(high school student wants to be rich some day)
Replies: 102
Views: 6466

Re: BigMoney Jobs(high school student wants to be rich some

ziszew wrote:
gkaplan wrote:Plastics, young man. Plastics.


I had to look it up. Hilarious


I think gkaplan is alluding to this scene from the movie "The Graduate":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxihhBzCjk
by tadamsmar
Wed May 01, 2013 7:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BigMoney Jobs(high school student wants to be rich some day)
Replies: 102
Views: 6466

Re: Introduction to Philosophy: Book Suggestions?

One very accessible modern translation of a primary source (Epictetus Handbook) is: http://www.amazon.com/Manual-Living-Little-Book-Wisdom/dp/0062511114/ref=la_B000APB4YG_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1367281372&sr=1-3 (Primary in the sense that it's a translation of the notes of one of his students. Epic...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Introduction to Philosophy: Book Suggestions?
Replies: 13
Views: 699

Re: Vanguard is on the Password Hall of Shame.

As for Vanguard, the reason I want longer passwords is that is really the only area I can control. I have anti malware, anti virus on my computer (multiple, though not all simultaneously). On Vanguard, I can not have any control on their internal security measure, but I can make sure that my passwo...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard is on the Password Hall of Shame.
Replies: 250
Views: 18477

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

The F fund has a large percentage (44%) of the fund in US Treasuries, and the interest risk in those securities is uncompensated for if you also have the G fund as an option. The yield on the G fund "should" be around 0.04% so the current yield of ~1.50% represents a nearly 150 basis poin...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 29, 2013 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

Thanks to everyone for their input. To further explain my thinking, and I emphasize I have never timed the market since I constructed my portfolio after reading books by Swedroe, Ferri, and Bernstein years ago, what I've read is interest rates can't go any lower and thus, it seems inevitable the F ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 28, 2013 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

None of the L Fund allocations have a F Fund allocation larger than 9%. Replacing that 9% with all G does not make much difference. Backtesting from inception of these funds, it would work out to about 0.13% per year in favor of having an F allocation. That's smaller than some active fund ERs, and u...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

I posted this in another thread , but it's useful to repeat it here too: ...G Fund, which is a fund unique to government employees. It pays the interest of Treasury securities with four or more years to maturity, but it has daily liquidity and the rate changes monthly. It’s always valued at a dolla...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

For what it's worth, I moved my TSP bond allocation all to the G Fund last year. Accuse me of market timing if you want. I did the same, and feel the same. I did not, because I was in the G fund all along. Accuse me of anything. Victoria Do you have 100% of your fixed income in G? You were kind of ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

...what I've read is interest rates can't go any lower and thus, it seems inevitable the F fund's value will decrease in the years ahead. What you read is an obviously false statement, easy to prove false with grade-school math. I read false statements every day, so often I don't keep count. I don'...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 27, 2013 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

Hi Folks, Thanks for your input thus far. If it help, here's my portfolio's allocation (75% equity, 25% bonds - split between Roth IRA [all Vanguard funds] and TSP): 22.5% C Fund 7.5% S Fund 15% Small Cap Value 10% REIT 20% International (approx. 80% of which is I fund, remainder split evenly betwe...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 27, 2013 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

Hi Folks, Thanks for your input thus far. If it help, here's my portfolio's allocation (75% equity, 25% bonds - split between Roth IRA [all Vanguard funds] and TSP): 22.5% C Fund 7.5% S Fund 15% Small Cap Value 10% REIT 20% International (approx. 80% of which is I fund, remainder split evenly betwe...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

Brian, that looks like a pretty good mix to my eye. Frankly, I don't think you need to do a thing, especially given your horizon. (If you decided to go all to "G" for fixed income you'd enhance safety and stability of the portfolio at the expense of expected returns from the "F"...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?

Good morning All, I've been reading over the past several months the outlook on bonds is not bright. I'm approximately 25 years from retirement and maintain 25% of my portfolio equally divided between the TSP's F and G funds. Does anyone have an opinion as to whether or not it would/would not be pr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 26, 2013 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Leave F Fund for G Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 2321

Re: Do you believe this about Social Security?

Roughly, yes, I do believe this. I'm not sure it's the total number of dollars that is constant--that is, I'm assuming they do factor in the "time value of money" and the interest rate on Treasuries, just the way commercial insurers do. But Social Security is intended to be "actuaria...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 25, 2013 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 37
Views: 3036

Re: Getting lower cable rates by threatening to cancel

Thanks for the input. It probably helped me avoid some pitfalls. I tried the truth . I simply called Billing at TWC and told them my wife was encouraging me to switch to an ATT bundle if I could not get a lower rate. Billing gave me a $53 credit on my next bill and recommended that I call Promotions...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting lower cable rates by threatening to cancel
Replies: 48
Views: 3986

Re: Vanguard is on the Password Hall of Shame.

Another thing to consider is the idea that Vanguard would not have disclosed prior data breaches. Well I suspect that this is unlikely. Pretty much every state in the US requires that users be notified if they have private information compromised by a commercial web site. Keeping such information s...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard is on the Password Hall of Shame.
Replies: 250
Views: 18477

Re: Vanguard is on the Password Hall of Shame.

Another thing to consider is the idea that Vanguard would not have disclosed prior data breaches. Well I suspect that this is unlikely. Pretty much every state in the US requires that users be notified if they have private information compromised by a commercial web site. Keeping such information s...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard is on the Password Hall of Shame.
Replies: 250
Views: 18477

Re: Do you believe this about Social Security?

I am considering whether to delay SS after I retire at 66. I will be in a 25% marginal federal bracket and 7.75% North Carolina bracket. SS is not taxed in NC. So SS is taxed at a rate of 85*25 = 21.25%. IRA withdrawals are taxed at 32.75%. Doing the math, I find that my decision to delay SS in the ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 37
Views: 3036
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