Search found 6565 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Whats a good multi vitamin?

There is no good evidence for any:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivitamin
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whats a good multi vitamin?
Replies: 17
Views: 1137

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

Read this earlier post in this thread it's and it's supporting reference: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=91972&p=1582557 and you will understand that it was proven long ago that DCA is warranted if and only if selling out is warranted. This is a mathematical proof that ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 6649

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

If you believe markets are at least weak form efficient (i do), then current prices shouldn't influence your decision. Mathematically, lump sum is much better. But if you wish to get emotionally involved and dca then you'll probably pay for it with a hefty opportunity cost. This applies to bonds as...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 6649

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

However, when you're already invested, your purchase price is no longer (prudently, reasonably) subject to diversification. It's fixed. I don't get that. I can log on to Vanguard right now and shift all my equities to cash, wait a month, and move back into equities. You can tinker with the purchase...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 6649

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up. Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous. There is a boat-load of research on it: https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/7482/Portfol...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 103
Views: 8677

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Maynard F. Speer wrote:Really simple idea: Just test a 100% Stock Market vs 100% Value allocation on PV
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... allocation


Thanks, that was helpful.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 627

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Does anyone have any info that would illuminate the historical risk-adjusted performance of value index funds vs cap-weighed index funds. Just a point of terminology - I believe that many (most?) value index funds are also cap-weighted. Perhaps you meant value index vs. blend index (total index? gr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 627

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

There is a chart of Wellington vs SP500 total return from 1/1979 to 10/2014 http://remonsy.com/daily/vanguard-etf-funds/vanguard-wellington-analyzed/ The main difference is that Wellington did not participate in the "bubble" from 1990 to 2001, but it was on par with the SP500 in mid 2001. ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 627

Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Does anyone have any info that would illuminate the historical risk-adjusted performance of value index funds vs cap-weighed index funds. Of course, value indexed and dividend indexed funds don't go back too far and SP500 index funds are only 40 year or so old. Something like Sharpe Ratio of the Wel...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 627

Re: Is There a Next Jack Bogle

In the OP link, Jeremy Siegel said: He believes Bogle will be proven wrong in due course as fundamental index ETFs develop a long-term record of superior risk-adjusted returns. “The proof will be in the pudding,” Will some alternative index fund be the next performance leader? Or will cap-weighted i...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There a Next Jack Bogle
Replies: 37
Views: 3838

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Vanguard says you have a responsibility to peek as an anti-fraud measure:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/S ... ontent.jsp

But monitoring your email from Vanguard seems to be a good anti-fraud practice, if you can keep your email account secure.
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 103
Views: 8677

Re: Malkiel's "Random Walk..." Questions

If you decide to use his Life-Cycle asset allocation plan in the book, beware that it has been known to change from one edition of the book to the next.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's "Random Walk..." Questions
Replies: 28
Views: 2435

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

I bought on a dip in 1998. Later I read about the secret Fed meetings to figure out what to do about the fact that LTCM had just gone belly up taking most equity insurance down the drain with it. I could have been buying into a 2008-like panic.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 121
Views: 10472

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

livesoft wrote:Looks to me like lots of folks took some action.

My asset allocation is out of balance, so I will be rebalancing.


There was a actionable dip almost everyday for a period after mid 2008, so I am surprised you have any money left :)
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 121
Views: 10472

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Title says it all. For those waiting for a dip in the market to invest, did you catch it? The dip has come and gone. It was incredibly actionable. This is why those rebalancing studies say there is no point in rebalancing. It's because those studies never catch the dip. … I'm back to waiting for th...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 121
Views: 10472

Re: The Ignorance Survey

Not sure how this shows "Ignorance" about "the world".... unless you happen to have memorized population statistics.... A tad narrow to use such a sweeping term IMO :-) This is the way the survey characterizes itself: The aim with these surveys is to understand how pronounced an...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ignorance Survey
Replies: 5
Views: 741

The Ignorance Survey

I heard about this on GPS. People who think they are knowledgeable about the world do worse than random on some. 2015 Davos attendees did worse than random on some. It's a good detector of incorrect beliefs about the current status and the future of the world. The answers are right below the questio...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ignorance Survey
Replies: 5
Views: 741

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

F 2040 1/2015 is not the same allocation as F 2050 1/2025, 25 years from retirement in both cases. That means they are projecting AA's that vary depending on the future calendar year. Interesting.
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

There is a discontinuity at January 2014. That's when Mercer revised the L Funds to reflect new projection with a higher probability of future interest rate increases. For the 2050 fund F did dominate before 2014. 9%/4% F/G in 10/2013 shifted to 2%/11% in 1/2014. How much can we believe their effic...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

That being said, I wonder how much the TSP's points on their efficient frontier plot would move if one changes their fixed income ratio to be 50/50 F/G? It would move the points to the right and a bit below the original curve. This would indicate that trading G for F is not the best way to increase...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

It's a good deal, having access to the G Fund has a profound effect on the efficient frontier, it functions similar to a risk-free rate on steroids and tends to limit the usefulness of the F Fund. If I look at the data at https://www.tspdatacenter.com/annual_rates, I see that F beat G 16 years out ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

That data from Mercer is startling to me. I would not have thought the G fund would so completely dominate the "bond and cash" portion of the Efficient Frontier. Thanks for providing the link. I had seen it before but hadn't absorbed the information on the G fund at the time, as it wasn't...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

The F Fund returned an average of 2.19%, real, over the period 2004-2014. The G Fund returned .77%, real, over the same period. In order to make up the difference in return, you'd need to increase your stock allocation and portfolio risk. The G Fund only lies on the efficient frontier for low expec...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: RMD loophole?

3 things are certain: Death, taxes, and that your topic has been discussed on Bogleheads before: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119091 This topic got a better reception on this other thread, including the post at the end by the guy who is doing the whole shebang including ro...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD loophole?
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

William Million wrote:Both F and G are outstanding (and extremely low risk). Many non-govt employees wish they had access to them.


We all have access to the F-fund-like mutual funds. It's the same as a total bond market index fund except it has a somewhat lower ER than the equivalent Vanguard Fund.
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9313

Re: RMD loophole?

A better option is to roll the funds over from 401(k) to an IRA and then convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. No need to form a company, no need to work past the age of 70, no need to worry about the loophole closing. Victoria But a need to pay a boat load of taxes on the conversion. One can re...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD loophole?
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: RMD loophole?

Turns out that my wife can avail herself of perhaps the most ideal form of this loophole with no additional effort. She just happens to be working part-time at home (reviewing the occasional document) for a company with a Vanguard 401K. They chose to make her an employee rather than just a consultan...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD loophole?
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: RMD loophole?

joe8d wrote:You have to be working for the same company that holds your 401k.


You can normally roll your 401K or rollover IRA over to a new employer. As far as I know, your don't have to work full-time for the new employer.
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD loophole?
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: RMD loophole?

The rule to delay RMDs in a 401k plan is plan specific. If your plan sponsor chooses, it can require you to take RMDs at 70.5, greater than 5% owner or not. A plan sponsor is just a company. 21 people could create a company and each own less that 5%. And there are lots of other ways to do it. But I...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD loophole?
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

RMD loophole?

Seems you can delay RMDs from a 401K if you are still working part-time, with no limit on how few hours you work per year, you just need a W2 with some earned income. There is a rule you can't own 5% of the company.
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD loophole?
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: Time of Use Electrical Rates

Area is Midwest. So hot summers and cold winters. Was thinking of turning thermostat up a couple degrees and not doing laundry or running dishwasher during the peak. Would this make enough difference to be worth it? I've been on TOU rates for at least 20 years. But our rate had a demand charge for ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time of Use Electrical Rates
Replies: 22
Views: 1452

Re: TSP account asset allocation?

You need to provide more information about all your investing and saving, not just your TSP allocation. Here are guidelines for posting about investment help: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212 And, it would be better if you be posted to the "help with investments&quo...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP account asset allocation?
Replies: 11
Views: 811

Re: Too many people using index funds?

There are already issues with index funds like front-running: http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/22365.html I bet every index fund has some fudges in it's implimentation to mitigate these issues. In general, the percentage in index funds does not have an impact on price-setting till i...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too many people using index funds?
Replies: 38
Views: 5821

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Thanks for the link. Unless I'm misinterpreting his article, Rick seems to be suggesting allocating more to VEU, rather than VXUS...right? This would give a more even distribution between VTI and VEU? I don't see why he would suggest one or the other.. VEU & VXUS are virtually the same. VXUS ha...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

DRILLINDK wrote:Thanks for the link. Unless I'm misinterpreting his article, Rick seems to be suggesting allocating more to VEU, rather than VXUS...right?

This would give a more even distribution between VTI and VEU?


Yes, equivalent to a move toward VT (the global allocation).
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Would Rick Ferri choose to select more specific allocations that are more concentrated to a specific area/continent/country, like a Europe stock ETF/Fund, etc? Or would he choose to stay broad and just allocate to VXUS and BNDX? In his blog, he used VEU as a proxy for international one point, and h...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: ...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuin

To compare with SWR, USA Today got quotes of 3.79% and 3.63% payouts for an inflation adjusted annuity for a 65 year old man: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2012/10/18/waggoner-inflation-adjusted-annuity/1639119/ But that ends when the man dies, so it not directly comparable ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuing wh
Replies: 48
Views: 5071

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Posters are actually saying they are increasing their international holdings based on this thread! It would be ironic if Rick's stated plan actually worked and international equities tanked this year due to a sovereign debt default or two and these posters lost money due to the influence of this biz...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Rick Ferri waiting to internationalize his portfolio

I'm having a tough time understanding why people are overlooking the thesis of the article. I really am. Summary of the article: I love international valuations, but not enough to do anything. But now that international prices are moving away from domestics, it morphed into: Summary of article: I l...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

by tadamsmar » Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm paper200 wrote: I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70%...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70% of my stock allocation is in US equity and 100% of my bo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

We can keep bringing posters back to the article so that the actual predictions in the article will be remembered on this thread at least. Thanks for bringing us back to the point of the article. The way I understand it is - Rick has a portfolio that is weighted toward domestic stocks and bonds. (7...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

In "Why we should not make mean log of wealth big though years to act are long" cited earlier in this thread, Samuelson said: If it does not pay to do an act once, it will not pay to do it twice, thrice,..., or at all. But Kahneman refutes that notion in the "Risk Policy" chapter...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 296
Views: 17341

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I feel like i'm watching CNBC, where the talking heads just assume nobody remembers what they predicted yesterday. Maybe they are on to something. We can keep bringing posters back to the article so that the actual predictions in the article will be remembered on this thread at least. Rick's predic...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Moody's has doubled it's estimate of the risk of a Ukraine sovereign default: Good point. But the best I can figure is that Ukraine, Venezuela and Greece account for little more than decimal dust in the total international bond fund (VTABX) portfolio as of 1/31/2015. Of course, I don't know if eith...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate as it relates to Size of Portfolio

Withdrawal rates are usually discussed as an annual percentage of the portfolio. So, the size of the portfolio does not matter, However, as the percentage increases, there may be a need for differing investment strategies. L. It's not an annual percentage of your portfolio. It a percentage of your ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate as it relates to Size of Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 2793

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Here's Rick's blog post which is the actual topic of this thread: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/my-expected-investment-changes-in-2015/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RickFerri+%28Rick+Ferri+Blog%29 I think it would be a good idea for posters to read t...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Looks like Vanguard is copying Rick, they are upping Intl stock + bond in Target date and LifeStrategy funds (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/posting.php?mode=reply&f=10&t=159493) They are not copying Rick, and if you had bothered to read his blog before commenting on it then you would alr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 37292

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

I also have this question like the OP. I want to know if it is possible to forecast with different predictors in the business cycle, economy , and government to determine when a crash is coming. Or, is this market timing and exactly impossible like always said. Nobody has a crystal ball?? Or is it ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 3108

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

Just a caution in interpreting the link in the OP. Don't be confused by their use of "buy-and-hold" The OP link is comparing buy-and-hold 1991-2014. That means buy in 1991 and hold for the entire period with no more buying. But I (as a Boglehead retirement fund investor) have been accumula...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 55
Views: 5580
Next

Return to advanced search