Search found 6686 matches

by tadamsmar
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Caribbean vacation recommendations
Replies: 32
Views: 2652

Re: Caribbean vacation recommendations

Bonaire, Netherlands Antillies , not really in the Caribbean, but worth a look. Locals speak Dutch, Spanish and English in that order.) Fishing, windsurfing, scuba, desert island with cactus. Many visitors from Amsterdam prefer it to Aruba or Curacao. I have been to many Caribbean islands and I fou...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Returns
Replies: 28
Views: 3021

Re: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Return

I guess I don't get it. Since yearly return = cumulative return ^ (1/N), where N is number of years. L. That formula is incorrect. If you has a 1000-year cumulative return of 1% then according to that formula yearly return = 1%, because: 1 = 1^(1/N) for all N. I think you perhaps meant to use the C...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Returns
Replies: 28
Views: 3021

Re: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Return

Here is my view of the situation: http://imageshack.com/a/img543/8172/jptx.png http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/543/jptx.png If you invest in stocks for one year, there is some probability of outcomes. If you invest for multiple years, the ultimate outcome depends on multiple samplings of the ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Caribbean vacation recommendations
Replies: 32
Views: 2652

Re: Caribbean vacation recommendations

A rental on Love Beach in the Bahamas is a good choice.

Flights are cheaper and shorter if you live in the Eastern US.

Also, I second Isla Mujeres.

Vieques is a good choice.
by tadamsmar
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Returns
Replies: 28
Views: 3021

Re: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Return

Here is my view of the situation: http://imageshack.com/a/img543/8172/jptx.png http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/543/jptx.png If you invest in stocks for one year, there is some probability of outcomes. If you invest for multiple years, the ultimate outcome depends on multiple samplings of the ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

The advancement of seatbelt is incredible huge step in safety increase, which as technology and structural/airbag/etc. engineering improve, I think that as time goes on, all these small tech features by diff car makers are going to have less and less marginal increase in safety since the next step ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Worst Bands/ Musicians and Movies
Replies: 48
Views: 5018

Re: Your Top 10 Worst Bands/ Musicians and Movies

My favorite bad movie is Godfather III
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee - just starting out
Replies: 43
Views: 5330

Re: Coffee - just starting out

Coffee vs Cokes You get a standard dose of caffeine in give volume of Coke (at least in a bottled or canned ones). The caffeine levels in coffee can vary a lot. Ups and downs in one's caffeine intake can be problematic for some, causing drowsiness or over-stimulation during the day and insomnia at n...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 377
Views: 61192

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

In my opinion, the illogic of the blog is more impressive than the fact it's timing. Here that the last two sentences: I believe the opportunities outside the US are at least as good as inside, and I’ll probably be adjusting my portfolio in the next year to reflect this belief. If the opportunities ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

For electronics/software, all the costs are upfront. The costs to implement are low. Each additional unit installed cost is negligible. The profit to manufacturer is huge. :oops: :moneybag And they are making that profit off the backs of affluent techno-geeks who are willing to be beta testers. :gr...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

Agree completely. If this technology actually works then it should be standard equipment instead of being gouged-priced on vehicles. Like I said, I'd rather drive a car with it than without it, but not for another $2,000+ on the car price. The knowledge that a technology actually works does not mag...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead flea treatment?
Replies: 39
Views: 2389

Re: Boglehead flea treatment?

Take an aluminum pie pan and put water in it. Add a drop or two of dish detergent. Set one or more of these below a night light in each infested room. The fleas are attracted to light and they will jump into the pan. The dish detergent eliminates the surface tension of water. The fleas drown. This w...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 4738

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

A market appraisal by licensed appraiser values our house + land at $245k-$265K. I think the appraisal is reasonable and want our initial asking price to be about $275K. My spouse feels that appraiser did not account correctly for the land and wants to start at $340K and lower this if there are no ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Homeowner insurance deductible savings data
Replies: 4
Views: 616

Re: Homeowner insurance deductible savings data

My guess is that part of the diminishing return has to do with the fixed costs of processing a claim.
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 04, 2015 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refrigerator--Buy New or Used
Replies: 19
Views: 1467

Re: Refrigerator--Buy New or Used

A repair man just told me that a base model GE refrigerator is the most reliable. The more features the more maintenance.
by tadamsmar
Thu Jun 04, 2015 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Homeowner insurance deductible savings data
Replies: 4
Views: 616

Homeowner insurance deductible savings data

This is for Amica on a baseline $1,198 premium. Deductible Savings $500 $0 (baseline) $2500 $378 (vs $500) $5000 $498 (vs $500) There is a diminishing return. $378 for increasing by $2000 then only $120 for increasing another $2500. One can go up to a $10,000 deductible, but I have don't have the sa...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 114
Views: 8557

Re: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]

I pulled the latest IIHS driver fatality data (2013). (http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/vehicle-size-and-weight/fatalityfacts/passenger-vehicles#Driver-death-rates) Interesting stat that surprises me: In 2000, SUV's had slightly higher occupant death rate than cars at 135/million vs 126/million re...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 114
Views: 8557

Re: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]

I do not honestly believe SUVs are unequivocally safer. As others have mentioned, you cannot simply compare a M Class to that Legacy...because the SUV will have higher center of gravity and more likely to roll than a Legacy. Of course modern tech will have reduced it much more than say....if you we...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 26, 2015 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Priority turned upside down?
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Re: Investment Priority turned upside down?

However, when you withdraw from the account, things change; you may want to withdraw from your IRA before you withdraw from your taxable account. If you withdraw $25,000 from a Roth IRA, you deprive your heirs of $25,000 of tax-free money, but you have $25,000 to spend yourself. If you withdraw $28...
by tadamsmar
Sun May 24, 2015 5:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Essential Security Computer Programs
Replies: 12
Views: 1439

Re: Essential Security Computer Programs

It's my understanding that they will not project you completely from phishing. Phishing is a type of social engineering and no automated security fully protects you.

https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/tips/ST04-014
by tadamsmar
Sun May 24, 2015 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need some clarification, just read "Bogleheads guide to investing"
Replies: 10
Views: 1316

Re: need some clarification, just read "Bogleheads guide to investing"

Fidelity is fine as long as you watch the ER's so you'd want to stick with Spartan funds. You can also move your 401k and IRA's to Vanguard tax free. Your choice. It makes life easier to have everything at one place. I prefer VG. If you want to transfer just call them and they will walk you though ...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 22, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 54
Views: 7374

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

Seems the bull market in stocks ended in 2000, its been a zig-zag market since 2000. Rebalancing has paid off since 2000 just as Shannon demonstrated it would in a random market that shows little or no cumulative gain or loss.
by tadamsmar
Fri May 22, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Nashville during the summer
Replies: 38
Views: 2205

Re: Visiting Nashville during the summer

This tread is pretty comprehensive. Maybe look for some local events, like outdoor concerts, festivals. If you have kids, the library has really fine puppet shows, and there is a small sandwich shop next door. The Nashville art gallery might have some good exhibits. I had a chance to visit Nashville...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 22, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Account Help Needed
Replies: 11
Views: 1216

Re: Taxable Account Help Needed

There are some arguments for no co-mingling AA. http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2014/04/03/does-asset-location-make-sense-for-me/ The cap-gains tend to lock one into your taxable asset choices. The stock funds tend to grow faster than bond funds and someday you might have to pay cap-gains if y...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 21, 2015 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Priority turned upside down?
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Re: Investment Priority turned upside down?

By taxable funds, I mean taxable investments that would have some cap gain taxes due if they were used to pay taxes on a conversion. Just to be sure we're agree: ⋅ If you have money that has already been taxed, such as earned income, distributions, etc. it's always better to use a Roth th...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 21, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Priority turned upside down?
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Re: Investment Priority turned upside down?

Because of the stepped up basis, prioritizing for inheritance may favor taxable over tax-deferred. Are there any circumstances is it better to inherit taxable instead of Roth? Not that I know of. But there are circumstance that can favor not using taxable funds to pay the taxes on the conversion of...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 21, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Priority turned upside down?
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Re: Investment Priority turned upside down?

Because of the stepped up basis, prioritizing for inheritance may favor taxable over tax-deferred. Are there any circumstances is it better to inherit taxable instead of Roth? Not that I know of. But there are circumstance that can favor not using taxable funds to pay the taxes on the conversion of...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 21, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Priority turned upside down?
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Investment Priority turned upside down?

The usual advice is to favor tax-deferred accounts over taxable. "Investing in a prioritized order will maximize the tax efficiency of a portfolio." https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Prioritizing_investments Similar reasoning favors Roth conversions using taxable savings to cover the tax. Bu...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 20, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

Well you could just get in a car with xenons at night an see the difference. If I could see 2-3x further down the road, I find it hard to believe that xenons do not reduce the number of accidents at night. Oh, then there is research like this: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/49/7/4...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 20, 2015 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

This stuff has been out for a couple years now. The evidence for autobraking being a good thing is pretty solid. The evidence for Xeon/LED lighting is also very solid. The rest get a bit sketchier and often depend on the model. I have a feeling that for things like blind spot monitoring that it is ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 20, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

Another concern I have about all the electronics associated with these sensor-and-computer systems is their reliability and the costs to repair and maintain them as the car ages. These are the same guys that can't even install airbags that don't explode and kill you or ignition key switches that ma...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 20, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 9974

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

Another question. For number 1. Are you saying that Roth conversions might even be worth doing once I am taking RMDs? Those RMDs will be expensive tax-wise. They WILL push me to a higher tax bracket, BUT once I am in that tax bracket there will be room to absorb some Roth conversions before I get t...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 20, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 9974

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

I only have two more years before 70.5 and taxes on Roth conversion can (still) be paid out of SS+pension cash flow. I don't expect to do Roth conversions once RMDs kick in. (Depends on tax analysis that year but I'm assuming for planning purposes it will not be the best strategy. I'm not even sure...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 20, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 9974

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

bertilak wrote:P.S. Can you point me to Rick Ferri's discussion on "all stocks in taxable?"


http://www.rickferri.com/blog/strategy/ ... ake-sense/

This (not from Ferri) might also be of interest:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principl ... _placement
by tadamsmar
Tue May 19, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 9974

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

PS: Unfortunately, complexity in one's tax avoidance strategy can be warranted, at least when you have taxable savings. At let in my case I think simplicity has helped my tax strategy: ⋅  Taxable account : All stocks, no bonds. ⋅  Tax-advantaged accounts : Mix of stocks and bond...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 19, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 9974

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

I think the great thing is understanding that complexity in one's asset allocation is not warranted. It typically grows out of overfitting the data, or overlooking the uncertainties. Sometimes we Bogleheads get so in to merely spouting a mantra that we forget to teach the reason behind it. PS: Unfor...
by tadamsmar
Tue May 19, 2015 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

Frankly, I'd have to say that used car buyers may be smarter than new car buyers. They realize that the market value of new cars falls faster and harder than stocks in 2008 and you can buy a perfectly good car for pennies on the dollar if you shop cars that are only 2-3 years old. Unfortunately, I'...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 18, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?
Replies: 50
Views: 5276

Re: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?

rrouse wrote:Buffett has warned that bonds are "among the most dangerous of assets" and "their risk is huge".


Pay no attention to that man behind curtain selling bonds, the man who is the President, Chairman, and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
by tadamsmar
Sun May 17, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

I think Browser is correct that bundling the newer safety features with packages and trims is a way to make buyers buy more features.

I was like that with ESC before it was mandated.
by tadamsmar
Sun May 17, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

The answer to the OP's ? of course yes. Most studies show that the three major improvements to car safety are 1 Airbags 2. ESC 3. ABS. Everything else is crap. It alarms me that we have people who can't drive without cameras and sensors. ABS never panned out as a safety feature. Some studies showed...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 15, 2015 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

Is this a case of over-insuring against minuscule risk, and a case of auto companies finding a new way to capitalize on fear and paranoia to increase their profits? An auto company should have fear and paranoia about falling behind too much in the race to higher safety levels. They can't just want ...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 15, 2015 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?
Replies: 197
Views: 13722

Re: Aren't we overdoing electronic auto safety features?

I think you would want to include serious injuries in your calculations. I thought about that, but how would we do that? First, you have to assume that these electronic safety features reduce incidents of serious injury and we don't know that they do. Second, you would need some data to evaluate th...
by tadamsmar
Fri May 15, 2015 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International - Who really is at 40%
Replies: 93
Views: 7340

Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Is it just Vanguard who is recommending higher international or do others offer similar advice? Also, doesn't having international increase risk since you need to deal with monetary risk as well? Malkiel started increasing his recommended international allocation for quite a while in new editions o...
by tadamsmar
Thu May 14, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?
Replies: 67
Views: 2917

Re: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?

There used to be problems with one accident type (running off the road?) but that went away with ESC. Nobody proved why ABS caused a "running off the road and hitting a tree" problem, but the prevailing theory is that drivers made bad decisions after ABS gave them the ability to steer whi...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 13, 2015 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?
Replies: 67
Views: 2917

Re: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?

Does anyone seriously think that, in 2015 anyways, a parent will not teach a young driver how to use the brakes when approaching cars and/or other objects? Parents can't teach what they don't know. Mercedes research in 1992 revealed that 90% of drivers cannot execute an optimal emergency stop on a ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 13, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?
Replies: 67
Views: 2917

Re: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?

I wouldn't want to teach my children, from day 1, to rely on computers to not hit other cars, but that's just my opinion. Well, sometimes philosophy can collide with the real world. How much additional risk are you willing to put your children in to make sure they don't become overly reliant on tec...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 13, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?
Replies: 67
Views: 2917

Re: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?

i actually had forgotten that my car had the Smart City brake assist (brakes for impending collision at speeds <20 mph) until i was driving towards our automatic gate at work and i guess i didn't slow down fast enough for the car to think i was going to hit the gate and the beeps went off and then ...
by tadamsmar
Wed May 13, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?
Replies: 67
Views: 2917

Re: Auto-braking systems in cars - experiences?

According to IIHS: "Forward collision avoidance systems, particularly those that can brake autonomously, along with adaptive headlights, which shift direction as the driver steers, show the biggest crash reductions." (That is, the biggest among recently introduced features that are suppose...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 11, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking input on vehicle purchase
Replies: 19
Views: 1809

Re: Seeking input on vehicle purchase

The 2009 Honda Fit Sport has ESC. At least it's optional on the 2009 and I think the Sport trim is the only one that had it. I actually steered someone toward the Sport trim back before 2012 when it was optional. Not sure it's the best choice, just saying... This is a good place to look for ESC htt...
by tadamsmar
Mon May 11, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking input on vehicle purchase
Replies: 19
Views: 1809

Re: Seeking input on vehicle purchase

The 2009 Honda Fit Sport has ESC. At least it's optional on the 2009 and I think the Sport trim is the only one that had it.

I actually steered someone toward the Sport trim back before 2012 when it was optional.

Not sure it's the best choice, just saying...

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