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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Thanks for the link. Unless I'm misinterpreting his article, Rick seems to be suggesting allocating more to VEU, rather than VXUS...right? This would give a more even distribution between VTI and VEU? I don't see why he would suggest one or the other.. VEU & VXUS are virtually the same. VXUS ha...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

DRILLINDK wrote:Thanks for the link. Unless I'm misinterpreting his article, Rick seems to be suggesting allocating more to VEU, rather than VXUS...right?

This would give a more even distribution between VTI and VEU?


Yes, equivalent to a move toward VT (the global allocation).
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Would Rick Ferri choose to select more specific allocations that are more concentrated to a specific area/continent/country, like a Europe stock ETF/Fund, etc? Or would he choose to stay broad and just allocate to VXUS and BNDX? In his blog, he used VEU as a proxy for international one point, and h...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: ...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuin

To compare with SWR, USA Today got quotes of 3.79% and 3.63% payouts for an inflation adjusted annuity for a 65 year old man: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2012/10/18/waggoner-inflation-adjusted-annuity/1639119/ But that ends when the man dies, so it not directly comparable ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuing wh
Replies: 43
Views: 3831

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Posters are actually saying they are increasing their international holdings based on this thread! It would be ironic if Rick's stated plan actually worked and international equities tanked this year due to a sovereign debt default or two and these posters lost money due to the influence of this biz...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Rick Ferri waiting to internationalize his portfolio

I'm having a tough time understanding why people are overlooking the thesis of the article. I really am. Summary of the article: I love international valuations, but not enough to do anything. But now that international prices are moving away from domestics, it morphed into: Summary of article: I l...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

by tadamsmar » Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm paper200 wrote: I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70%...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70% of my stock allocation is in US equity and 100% of my bo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

We can keep bringing posters back to the article so that the actual predictions in the article will be remembered on this thread at least. Thanks for bringing us back to the point of the article. The way I understand it is - Rick has a portfolio that is weighted toward domestic stocks and bonds. (7...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

In "Why we should not make mean log of wealth big though years to act are long" cited earlier in this thread, Samuelson said: If it does not pay to do an act once, it will not pay to do it twice, thrice,..., or at all. But Kahneman refutes that notion in the "Risk Policy" chapter...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 296
Views: 16986

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I feel like i'm watching CNBC, where the talking heads just assume nobody remembers what they predicted yesterday. Maybe they are on to something. We can keep bringing posters back to the article so that the actual predictions in the article will be remembered on this thread at least. Rick's predic...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Moody's has doubled it's estimate of the risk of a Ukraine sovereign default: Good point. But the best I can figure is that Ukraine, Venezuela and Greece account for little more than decimal dust in the total international bond fund (VTABX) portfolio as of 1/31/2015. Of course, I don't know if eith...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate as it relates to Size of Portfolio

Withdrawal rates are usually discussed as an annual percentage of the portfolio. So, the size of the portfolio does not matter, However, as the percentage increases, there may be a need for differing investment strategies. L. It's not an annual percentage of your portfolio. It a percentage of your ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate as it relates to Size of Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 2583

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Here's Rick's blog post which is the actual topic of this thread: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/my-expected-investment-changes-in-2015/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RickFerri+%28Rick+Ferri+Blog%29 I think it would be a good idea for posters to read t...
by tadamsmar
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Looks like Vanguard is copying Rick, they are upping Intl stock + bond in Target date and LifeStrategy funds (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/posting.php?mode=reply&f=10&t=159493) They are not copying Rick, and if you had bothered to read his blog before commenting on it then you would alr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

I also have this question like the OP. I want to know if it is possible to forecast with different predictors in the business cycle, economy , and government to determine when a crash is coming. Or, is this market timing and exactly impossible like always said. Nobody has a crystal ball?? Or is it ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 3011

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

Just a caution in interpreting the link in the OP. Don't be confused by their use of "buy-and-hold" The OP link is comparing buy-and-hold 1991-2014. That means buy in 1991 and hold for the entire period with no more buying. But I (as a Boglehead retirement fund investor) have been accumula...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4325

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

Those dollar-weighted averages compare the return of a dollar removed with the return a dollar that remain invested. But what did that dollar earn while out of the fund? As an extreme example, suppose a "sold low" $2 of the fund and invested in a Powerball ticket. Suppose I won a billion a...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4325

Re: how best to supplement heat with heat pump

Get the system checked and see what the pro says. Your lease should have a clause making the tenant responsible for changing the filters. The lease should say that the tenant is responsible for repairs arising from failure to use clean filters. I had a tenant that burned out the aux heating elements...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how best to supplement heat with heat pump
Replies: 49
Views: 2432

Re: [What to do at] Market Top

With DOW and S&P making new highs wondering what are the visitors to this forum doing. Cash out play money ? Sell individual stock positions and reinvest in index funds ? Your title ask: What to do at Market Top? I ask you: How do you reliably identify a Market Top in real time so that you can ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [What to do at] Market Top
Replies: 57
Views: 4937

Re: Suggest an infrared temperture gun

I have a small one. I have to be very close to the location I am measuring. I found it useless for just pointing at something a few feet away, because i just got an average of a larger area.

In an attic, you can detect leaks by discoloration in the insulation.
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggest an infrared temperture gun
Replies: 20
Views: 1349

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Not that it matters, it was recently reported by Bloomberg that Soros Fund Management, the family office of billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros, is also cutting holdings of U.S. stocks and shifted assets globally. Soros Shifts to Europe, Asia as Investors Cut U.S. Equities Rick Ferri Rick, ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Convincing a novice index funds are superior

So say I'm a novice, somewhat skittish investor, looking to invest $1,000 / month with a long term horizon but don't know what to do. You have 10-20 minutes of my time. I'm not good with math and I don't have time to read books on investing. What would you recommend? Say you recommend something lik...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing a novice index funds are superior
Replies: 26
Views: 2369

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

Based on reading a book by William Sharpe on CAPM I always assumed that the "market portfolio" was a fiction defined as the tangent point or the curve. Here's an article by Fama and French discussing the ideas for those willing to do a deep dive into the ideas. For example,the CAPM says t...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 759

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

But an index fund is not holding "the market portfolio." It tries to hold a miniaturized replica of the market portfolio. No index fund exists that tries to be the total market portfolio. There are funds that try (and do a fine job) of holding miniature replicas of slices of the market po...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 759

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

In the ordinary casual uses of the word, we assume that "the" stock market is a separate "market" from "the" bond market. On the other hand, we assume that the NYSE and the NASDAQ (and the is-it-nineteen others) are all part of "the" stock market. It must hav...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 759

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCkQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.chicagofed.org%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fpublications%2Feconomic-perspectives%2F1999%2Fep3q99-4-pdf.pdf&ei=5vLpVJuEEYOkgwT-jYTwBw&usg=AFQjCNE2-50NJ3k_TLVX0JQeG8mlid3t0w&si...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 759

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

In MPT the market portfolio is the cap weighted portfolio of all risky assets and it is assumed* that the tangency portfolio is the MP. Are you meaning to say that MPT assumes that, or do you mean that the internet assumes that? I don't see where MPT assumes that the tangency portfolio is the cap w...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 759

Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

I just noticed what seems to me to be a widespread contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio" on the internet. It's used to mean: 1. The cap-weighted index portfolio, something that has as it's equity component the Total World Index Fund for instance. 2. The only fund you need (along...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 759

Leaky Doors Cost

I am interested in how people keep their doors from leaking air. I been checking the adjustment of door strike plates recently, and I find that most are not properly adjusted. The problems I find: 1. The plate is too far from the weatherproofing seal so there are air leaks when the seal is closed an...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Leaky Doors Cost
Replies: 0
Views: 255

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

I'm not sure what to do with "cumulative return" - will defer to others. It's not the math; I'm just not sure how to handle the inconsistencies. One solution is for the footnote to emphasize that the calculations are for the exactly the same return rate each year, with no variations, no v...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

I have noticed that the term "cumulative return" is used inconsistently throughout the Boglehead Wiki. In some places this definition is used: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cumulativereturn.asp In other places, the term "cumulative return" is used to mean just annual return...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

Investors choosing to increase their equity proportion, either through less conservative guidelines or a desire to increase return, should understand why they feel they have the need, ability, and willingness to take on the greater inherent risk.[note 4] It is not possible for an investors to incre...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

One problem with life-cycle funds is that they may not work well for someone who wants a different asset allocation for taxable and tax-deferred funds. If I recall correctly, Rick Ferri has advocated that taxable funds don't need a special AA and there is some merits to his idea. If one adopted that...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

This statement has the same problems as the one from the OP: However, critics of this approach point out that arriving at a standardized solution for allocating portfolio assets is problematic because individual investors require individual solutions. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306

Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

The expected return of a Powerball ticket PEAKS at about -57% (i.e. you can expect 0.43 per dollar) - those darn ties! That expected return calculation is based on the fallacy that the utility of $500M is only 250M times the utility of $2. When in reality, it's less than 250M times the utility of $...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]
Replies: 101
Views: 6156

Re: What is the BH consensus on international bonds?

P.S. Continuing to present my own opinion and not necessarily consensus, Vanguard's claim for international bonds is that historically, and under a set of assumptions which I think are actually reasonable enough, the benefit of international bonds would have been to reduce the standard deviation of...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the BH consensus on international bonds?
Replies: 54
Views: 3724

Re: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller

The Oughts were bad: http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2010/01/01/GR2010010101478.jpg http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2010/01/01/GR2010010101478.html Since the Oughts, we have had about 10% jobs growth over 5 years. But, heck, lots of people thought the 192...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 13, 2015 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller
Replies: 86
Views: 10170

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

The blog inspires a test specific of his forecasting. There is a plot of TSM and FTSE All World in the blog. In order for his forecast to be true: 1. An oil state will have to default before 2016 2. FTSE All World will have to go below TSM in performance since his prediction (or perhaps just YTD) in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

My problem with the blog article (and I am just seeking clarity, not throwing stones), was a difficulty reconciling the 2009/10 forecast with the portfolio and the stated changes. "I make investment changes at a glacial speed. The last change was about five years ago when I combined micro-cap ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36021

Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

FireProof wrote:The expected return of a Powerball ticket PEAKS at about -57% (i.e. you can expect 0.43 per dollar) - those darn ties!
That expected return calculation is based on the fallacy that the utility of $500M is only 250M times the utility of $2.
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]
Replies: 101
Views: 6156

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

ESC allows perfect drivers like randomguy to make otherwise impossible avoidance maneuvers to avoid getting hit by bad drivers.
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 9012

Re: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller

For the sake of somewhat greater accuracy I would say that technological advancement is a technologists activity and the greater mass of humanity( with the usual exceptions) is along for the ride, We are not just along for the ride, the Constitution empowers the government to enact laws to promote ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller
Replies: 86
Views: 10170

Re: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller

I would love to know if H. G. Wells originated the question "could the rate of release be speeded up?" or whether it was "in the air" at the time. Wells imagined a kind of slow motion A-bomb that was kind of like speeding up the the half-life of Radium from 1600 years to 17 days...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller
Replies: 86
Views: 10170

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

I'm reminded of the study where 93% of drivers rated themselves as better than the median. Overconfidence Effect :thumbsup Some people think we humans are as perfect as God: I could see an argument if your inexperienced children were driving your cars, but you cannot say that safety features (like ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 9012

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

I'm reminded of the study where 93% of drivers rated themselves as better than the median. Overconfidence Effect :thumbsup Some people think we humans are as perfect as God: I could see an argument if your inexperienced children were driving your cars, but you cannot say that safety features (like ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 9012

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

No doubt Raymond James wants us to believe that their AA development process is a personal one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgfKDSMTXgs

because you cannot squeeze the same level of fees from each individual.
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 10, 2015 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

A few years ago, I went on a quest for a safe Boglehead car. I wanted ESC and I figured the cheapest way to get it was on a old luxury car that ran around $8,000. So, I test drove (with my wife) an older BMW. It had leather seats and dual climate control and it was very quiet. We did not buy that ca...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 9012

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

http://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/c/c8/Ambox_notice.png We don't think you are capable of thinking objectively about something as personal as the size of your nest egg after you are too old to go out and get a job and earn some more money. So, don't just invest in a life-cycle fund, you are too hu...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 208
Views: 10306
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