Search found 6309 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Ruminations on Timing with PE10

The 0.66% figure is biased since the PE10 timing trigger optimized for the dataset used to measure it. I have never seen a study where a PE10 timing procedure was tested outside of the sample used to optimize it's parameter(s).
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Timing with PE10
Replies: 3
Views: 308

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

Still being new to BH investing, I haven't depleted all of my "stupid" questions yet. So your BH investing and staying the course, you have your AA. IF the market were to fall drastically and you could stomach it (not sure I could) would a BH "tweak" their AA towards slightly st...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 79
Views: 6034

Ruminations on Timing with PE10

I thought this was an interesting and simple analysis of timing using PE10 http://www.financialarchitectsllc.com/Ruminations%20Files/Ruminations%20on%20Market%20Timing%20with%20the%20PE10.pdf The PE10 negative correlation with future returns makes such timing look like a nobrainer. But for a simple ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Timing with PE10
Replies: 3
Views: 308

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

One of the things I like about John C. Bogle is that he is not doctrinaire (and thus he is inconsistent). There are even more inconsistencies for you to like. In other places, Bogle defines RTM and the magnetism of the mean as the tendency of all investments to tend toward average in the future reg...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 112
Views: 5510

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

My personal touchstone for "Boglehead" is Twelve Pillars of Wisdom . Pillar 7. The Powerful Magnetism of the Mean In the world of investing, the mean is a powerful magnet that pulls financial market returns toward it, causing returns to deteriorate after they exceed historical norms by su...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 112
Views: 5510

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

I get off the tracks in that scenario, but that's just me. Some walking down railroad tracks stay the course and ignore the noise. Not sure what they recommend in the case of a visual sighting of said train. The problem is that you might never see the train coming, just a bunch of people telling yo...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 79
Views: 6034

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

There are always going to be extreme pessimists and optimists foretelling doom or utopia in the stock market. Nonetheless, not all Bogleheads are efficient market theorists, and without a crystal ball, there might still be rational reasons to expect a major correction within a frame of time . Obvio...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 79
Views: 6034

Re: getting umbrella insurance

What questions will the insurance company ask? Just want to be prepared... I get my umbrella insurance from RLI. They send me a checklist to complete. How many homes are cars to I own. Do I have enough home and auto liability insurance on each. Ages of drivers. Watercraft owned, I'd never thought a...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting umbrella insurance
Replies: 25
Views: 1484

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

How much is going to be highly variable depending an individual's situation. The BIG savings is if, by using mass transit, one can reduce the need having a car altogether. Either going from 2 cars down to one or becoming car free. Cars spend 95% or more of their life just sitting. They have high fi...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 51
Views: 3407

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

Not putting many miles on your car can be detrminental to its "health." You'll want to move the car so the tires don't get flat spots. You also should drive at highway speeds twice per month for around 20 minutes. Be generous in giving the car time to warm up after it has been sitting (pe...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 51
Views: 3407

How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

This is a question that I have never gotten a good answer to. If you start vanpooling, then you reduce the use of one of your cars. But, typically you still need the car, you just have reduced usage. The reimbursement rate for use of your own car is around 50 cents per mile these days, but I think t...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 51
Views: 3407

Re: Vacation in France

Sound like you are doing OK with savings over all. Go for it! A cheap airbnb flat in Paris on a nice street with lots of food shops is cheaper than a hotel and more romantic. I stayed in one on Rue Lourmel near the Duplex metro station. It had a small balcony with a view of the Eiffel Tower. There w...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation in France
Replies: 96
Views: 4984

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

I just follow my eating policy statement.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Does anyone know what percentage of pesticide residue is on the inside of fruits vs on the skins? Would the same percentage hold for natural pesticides? TIA precisely 13.62462 percent. Can I round that up? :) Round it down to get less pesticides. Victoria Rounding up may be as dangerous as eating c...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

Maybe someone here knows financial engines better but when I look at their site they seem to only be advising those currently working rather than advising those already retired about having an appropriate AA. I am trying to figure out how to use the G Fund optimally in my retirement AA. My wife &am...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2474

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Does anyone know what percentage of pesticide residue is on the inside of fruits vs on the skins? Would the same percentage hold for natural pesticides? TIA The plant itself produces lots of natural pesticides. They don't wash off. For the applied (organic or conventional) pesticides, I don't know ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: Advice for Another Mother

If you are managing her account at Vanguard, it is best that you set set up a Vanguard Agent Authorization.
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Another Mother
Replies: 14
Views: 2175

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

Overall, seems to me that there is not a lot of detailed info on how it works in an AA. Most recommended AAs don't include it. The only ones I know of that do include it are the TSP L Funds and http://www.financialengines.com Financial Engines and the G Fund? Yes, this service has been offered for ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2474

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

Come to think of it, the firm that calculates the TSP L Fund AAs (Mercer) uses the G Fund as the risk free rate for the efficient frontier. That's how one should classify it. TBM is never used as the risk free rate. I think that short treasuries and MM funds are used as the risk free rate. Maybe TIP...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2474

Re: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund

It's literally not TBM or TIPS. And, it certainly behaves differently from TBM and TIPS. I could be considered cash or an MM with a higher rate. It's more like that, I think. When used in an efficient frontier calculation, it creates a flatter curve by providing relatively better returns in the low ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Versus TSP G Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2474

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

I had a small garden where I grew zucchini. I took my first raw zucchini of the season to work as part of my lunch. When I tasted it, it seemed bitter. But I figured it was just because I was not use to eating raw zucchini. I put some salt on it (knowing that salt covers bitterness) a took another ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

I had a small garden where I grew zucchini. I took my first raw zucchini of the season to work as part of my lunch. When I tasted it, it seemed bitter. But I figured it was just because I was not use to eating raw zucchini. I put some salt on it (knowing that salt covers bitterness) a took another b...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Organic farmers use pesticides. They just use different pesticides. For instance, Rotenone is an organic pesticide that has been used widely and heavily in organic farming, not so much in farming that can use a wider variety of pesticides. It has been discovered that Rotenone causes Parkinson's dise...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?

Fruits and veggies have lots of natural pesticides.

I once had a bad case food poisoning from a couple of bites from a zucchini that had excessive levels of cucurbiticin, a natural pesticide.

Also, organic farmers use a long list of approved pesticides. They use different pesticides.
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying organic worth it financially in the long term?
Replies: 124
Views: 5624

Re: Bogleheads not found easily in Google

EmergDoc wrote:You guys are aware that Google results are personalized, right? But I still get Bogleheads as the first result for "investment forum" whether the results are personalized or non-personalized.


How do you search non-personalized?
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads not found easily in Google
Replies: 30
Views: 2922

Re: Speaking with an Aging Relative about care & money

My 92 year old MIL is in the same situation. She is not in any hurry to move to assisted living and not willing to even get on a waiting list. I figure that there will be some crisis and she will have to move to a nursing home with little advanced planning.
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Speaking with an Aging Relative about care & money
Replies: 24
Views: 2050

Re: Obligation to Parents?

Many states have parental support laws, and it is becoming much more common for states to sue adult children under those laws. Google it, and you'll find several recent articles about it. There are even several fairly recent threads about it here on Bogleheads. As our Baby Boomer population ages, I...
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obligation to Parents?
Replies: 77
Views: 3700

Re: How Do You Use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index)?

I don't. And please, it's a volatility index. To call it a "fear and greed index" is marketing or editorializing. You don't know whether it measures fear or greed and neither does anyone else. Would you ...call the S&P 500 a "wealth & happiness index?" ...call the CPI-U ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Nov 13, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index)?
Replies: 15
Views: 1126

Re: How can I convince my wife to accept investing??

This should not be a conversation about investing. It should be a conversation about how you two are going to provide for yourselves for your lifetime, including retirement. You need to show her your plan but she needs to show you hers. If she can show that her plan is going to work, maybe you shou...
by tadamsmar
Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I convince my wife to accept investing??
Replies: 54
Views: 4439

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

I would rather slightly increase my equity allocation, as the G Fund has zero volatility. You can hold more equities with the G Fund and have the same level of risk. Dumb question, but whats the easiest way to determine how much you could/would increase your equity allocation due to the lack of vol...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 63
Views: 6673

Re: Puerto Rico

wilked wrote:Culebra > Vieques >>>> Mainland Puerto Rico

Seriously, stay a day or two on the mainland if you must but spend the majority in the Spanish Virgin Islands


Vieques is one of my favorite vacation spots.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Puerto Rico
Replies: 16
Views: 1507

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

I love it when I get a chance to gripe about how the worst performing equity class in my AA is not going up fast enough.
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 4959

Re: Confused by FEHB & Medicare

If I understand correctly, I will be eligible for Medicare at 65 and will receive Hospital coverage (Part A) at no cost. The OMB site indicates that there is no change in premium when I become eligible for Medicare. Most of what I read have people signing up for Doctor care (Part B) and drugs (Part...
by tadamsmar
Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confused by FEHB & Medicare
Replies: 16
Views: 716

Re: Most Efficient Human Powered Boat

Pedaled kayaks like the Hobie Miriage are pretty efficient, but they are not cheap.
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 09, 2014 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most Efficient Human Powered Boat
Replies: 13
Views: 1396

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

There is a good case that you should consider cost when considering what is the safest. If you spend an extra $10,000 on a safer vehicle that's $10,000 you can't spend on moving closer to work (so you drive less), or working less (to reduce stress), or better food, or better medical care, or removi...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 74
Views: 4543

Re: A Little Common Core Math problem

I don't see anything wrong with her approach. If you had said, something like "It's great that you solved it!...can you come up with a way to solve it without having the list of answers?", then you might have had better success at mentoring her. (I'm using 20/20 hindsight of course.) She w...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Little Common Core Math problem
Replies: 97
Views: 2697

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

Clearly, rebalancing on 8% drops in the market is not market timing. Indeed, it might even be called "staying the course". Those folks who did not rebalance this month may have failed in staying the course. I am sure that the managers of the LifeStrategy and Target Retirement funds were d...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1942

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

And people are not looking to dash into each other all the time, contrary to what many seem to think. You don't need to crush other cars. You only need to keep the occupants safe. Unfortunately, weight is a competitive safety feature. The vehicle that keeps your occupants safest does contribute a l...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 74
Views: 4543

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

The IIHS fatality data is biased by the type of person who buys the car in some cases. For instance, the Dodge Challenger is probably a relatively safe car, but it attracts the "Dukes of Hazzard" type and has a high fatality number. The fatality vs weight data that informedforlife guy uses...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 74
Views: 4543

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

However, not all cars have been crash tested by both NHTSA and IIHS (especially newer ones). 47% of the cars on the list have "insufficient data" to form a rating. You have to watch out for this when you are using informedforlife. He needs a value for every item to calculate his rating, s...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 74
Views: 4543

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

Mass cancels out of the stopping distance equation for a flat surface:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braking_di ... _of_Motion

So it's not a factor.

I guess it must be a positive factor for downhill stopping.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 74
Views: 4543

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

One the best approaches for accumulating in a down market is to put your nest egg in a life-cycle fund.

A life-cycle fund automatically accumulates assets that are down relative to other assets via automatic rebalancing.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1942

Re: Bogleheads.org equivalents for other areas of life?

Ironically, the Forum Policy page provides a couple of good Boglehead-equivalent links for medical issues just after it tells you that medical issues are out of scope!
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads.org equivalents for other areas of life?
Replies: 70
Views: 7601

Re: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?

Concerning strikes and disruptions in Athens. It's best not to stay right on Syntagma Square if there is reason for concern. That's where the demonstrations and tear gassing is much more likely. I met one tourist couple who had some trouble getting back to their hotel on Syntagma Square, the hotel m...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?
Replies: 36
Views: 2050

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

Breeder reactors are essentially a dead issue. I can't think of anyone who has a breeder reactor programme going? Although the article does say Oak Ridges TN is again producing the isotope (about 3 lbs pa, a probe uses c 10 lbs). Russia has a big breeder reactor program. This from a few months ago:...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2148

Re: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?

We visited Athens for a few years ago. When we arrived at our hotel, they said we had to transfer to another hotel, the Jason Inn. We were given a room on the main street near the hotel's brightly lit sign. The Jason Inn is an OK location a short walk to the gate of the Ancient Agora, but it would b...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?
Replies: 36
Views: 2050

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

I was thinking you could use the fast neutron flow to make bomb grade atomic material? I am not clear in my mind whether U 235, U 238 or Plutonium but I think the latter? Any little country with some uranium and a few nuclear physicists could then build a bomb-- at least a crude one. I can't find a...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2148

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

Off topic, but: I am surprised they went live with that. Because if they have done it, it's as important to National Security, potentially, as the development of the hydrogen bomb. A fusion reactor that small would also be a great bomb-making plant. A fusion (aka hydrogen) bomb requires a fission bo...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2148
Next

Return to advanced search