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Re: A Little Common Core Math problem

I don't see anything wrong with her approach. If you had said, something like "It's great that you solved it!...can you come up with a way to solve it without having the list of answers?", then you might have had better success at mentoring her. (I'm using 20/20 hindsight of course.) She w...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Little Common Core Math problem
Replies: 97
Views: 2206

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

Clearly, rebalancing on 8% drops in the market is not market timing. Indeed, it might even be called "staying the course". Those folks who did not rebalance this month may have failed in staying the course. I am sure that the managers of the LifeStrategy and Target Retirement funds were d...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1789

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

And people are not looking to dash into each other all the time, contrary to what many seem to think. You don't need to crush other cars. You only need to keep the occupants safe. Unfortunately, weight is a competitive safety feature. The vehicle that keeps your occupants safest does contribute a l...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 65
Views: 2747

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

The IIHS fatality data is biased by the type of person who buys the car in some cases. For instance, the Dodge Challenger is probably a relatively safe car, but it attracts the "Dukes of Hazzard" type and has a high fatality number. The fatality vs weight data that informedforlife guy uses...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 65
Views: 2747

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

However, not all cars have been crash tested by both NHTSA and IIHS (especially newer ones). 47% of the cars on the list have "insufficient data" to form a rating. You have to watch out for this when you are using informedforlife. He needs a value for every item to calculate his rating, s...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 65
Views: 2747

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

Mass cancels out of the stopping distance equation for a flat surface:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braking_di ... _of_Motion

So it's not a factor.

I guess it must be a positive factor for downhill stopping.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 65
Views: 2747

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

One the best approaches for accumulating in a down market is to put your nest egg in a life-cycle fund.

A life-cycle fund automatically accumulates assets that are down relative to other assets via automatic rebalancing.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1789

Re: Bogleheads.org equivalents for other areas of life?

Ironically, the Forum Policy page provides a couple of good Boglehead-equivalent links for medical issues just after it tells you that medical issues are out of scope!
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads.org equivalents for other areas of life?
Replies: 69
Views: 6648

Re: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?

Concerning strikes and disruptions in Athens. It's best not to stay right on Syntagma Square if there is reason for concern. That's where the demonstrations and tear gassing is much more likely. I met one tourist couple who had some trouble getting back to their hotel on Syntagma Square, the hotel m...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?
Replies: 36
Views: 1946

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

Breeder reactors are essentially a dead issue. I can't think of anyone who has a breeder reactor programme going? Although the article does say Oak Ridges TN is again producing the isotope (about 3 lbs pa, a probe uses c 10 lbs). Russia has a big breeder reactor program. This from a few months ago:...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?

We visited Athens for a few years ago. When we arrived at our hotel, they said we had to transfer to another hotel, the Jason Inn. We were given a room on the main street near the hotel's brightly lit sign. The Jason Inn is an OK location a short walk to the gate of the Ancient Agora, but it would b...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Athens and London, what to do and where to stay?
Replies: 36
Views: 1946

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

I was thinking you could use the fast neutron flow to make bomb grade atomic material? I am not clear in my mind whether U 235, U 238 or Plutonium but I think the latter? Any little country with some uranium and a few nuclear physicists could then build a bomb-- at least a crude one. I can't find a...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

Off topic, but: I am surprised they went live with that. Because if they have done it, it's as important to National Security, potentially, as the development of the hydrogen bomb. A fusion reactor that small would also be a great bomb-making plant. A fusion (aka hydrogen) bomb requires a fission bo...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

Just wanted to make sure the OP understood the significance of the work "intended". In this case, I did not want him/ her to assume hey USO to oil is like GLD to gold. That is the mistake many make. The product is a futures product and want to make sure they knew it was not the same thing...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

At the risk of appearing overly snarky, do you really think that someone who doesn't know how to look things up on Google should be doing something like speculating on the direction of oil prices? I don't think it's that easy, at least if the goal is to "invest" in the spot price. Nothing...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

In addition, Thorp, while a professor of mathematics at MIT, met Claude Shannon, and took him and his wife Betty Shannon as partners on weekend forays to Las Vegas to play roulette and blackjack, at which Thorp was very successful.[12] His team's roulette play was the first instance of using a wear...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 8836

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

USO is intended to track spot oil prices, not sure how well they do. That is not correct. ALL commodity funds outside of gold, silver, and metals are priced on the futures market. That is the whole point of the futures market. One can not buy and store billions of barrels of oil or thousands of pig...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

USO is intended to track spot oil prices, not sure how well they do.
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: Smart people, please help us (agriculture exemption)

You can probably just rent it to a farmer who is willing to keep the records. Advertise it as farm land for rent. You will probably have to decide if you want to allow hunting since there is profit for the farmer in selling the hunting rights, the hunting rights usually go the the renter by default....
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Smart people, please help us (agriculture exemption)
Replies: 19
Views: 900

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

This that been going on since 2010, it's been the conventional wisdom that investors should flee the TBM for shorter durations, check out this thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=65069 In that thread people were betting that 2.0% CDs would outperform the TBM for the next year, bu...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3947

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

Just thinking generally about who tries to pick stocks... The educational system can do a good job of teaching people how to make money but it does a poor job (or no job at all) of teaching them how to invest money (except for certain majors). So, in general, people who get prepared for a good-payin...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 8836

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

Also, Scott Young's generalization about economists being good at this stuff is easy to refute by just pointing out the spectacular failure of LTCM, a hedge fund founded by top economists including 2 Nobel laureates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_ ... Management
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 8836

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I try to read or at least skim the citations in OPs before posting, looking for a point where the author makes a blatantly wrong claim and also a point where they blink (and telegraph that they know they are blowing smoke). Often takes only a few seconds to hit pay dirt. Scott Young indicates that ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 8836

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

nisi, Your plot just shows a recently improving economy and recent flat outlays that really don't bear much on the actual concern. The actual concern is more the federal outlay growth that is built into federal law and viewed as hard to repeal and hard to overcome with a growing economy. Your plot h...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7960

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I try to read or at least skim the citations in OPs before posting, looking for a point where the author makes a blatantly wrong claim and also a point where they blink (and telegraph that they know they are blowing smoke). Often takes only a few seconds to hit pay dirt. Scott Young indicates that h...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 8836

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

From the article:

My greatest risk is not growing my retirement account as much as humanly possible over the next ten to 15 years.


Actually, your greatest risk is not saving enough in an environment where returns in general (on bonds and stocks) are expected to be low.
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7960

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

From the article:

Today we have an environment where rates have very little room to fall and at some point will go up (we just don’t know when).


Actually, today we have an environment where rates can fall up to 100% and that's the same environment we have everyday.
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7960

Can 401K distributions cover IRA RMDs?

Looks like you have to take RMDs from 401Ks and some other similar employer accounts, you can't cover the requirement by taking more than is required from IRAs. But the rules for IRAs are more flexible.

Can you take more from your 401K and none from your IRAs to meet your overall RMD?
by tadamsmar
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can 401K distributions cover IRA RMDs?
Replies: 2
Views: 200

Re: Buy a new car, or fix the old one?

These result appear to be very specific and the study considered only crashes that presented the "possibility" that ESC would have made a difference. That study was based on comparisons of real-world data on essentially the same vehicles with and without ESC. It was a study of vehicles or...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy a new car, or fix the old one?
Replies: 55
Views: 3024

New explanation for SV premiums?

The 2 explanations I have seen for the small and value risk-adjusted return over-performance are: (1) it's behavioral and (2) it's hidden risk. But could that large growth stocks are not as risky as they appear? Perhaps LG has more reversion to mean (RTM) than SV, so that they have lower standard de...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New explanation for SV premiums?
Replies: 1
Views: 297

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

Looks like replacement instructions start on page 32:

http://download.lenovo.com/consumer/mob ... nglish.pdf
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1415

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

Your point about noise in the SD is very well taken. What it means is that there is noise in the Sharpe ratio, too--which accords with common sense and with casual observation of Morningstar's published Sharpe ratios. For a given sample from a random variable, the error in the SD estimate must be m...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1460

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

This isn't the right form for a graph to estimate standard deviations, because the time series is meaningless: 4,-5,3,-3,1 and -5,-3,1,3,4 have the same standard deviation but look very different. It would be possible to estimate standard deviation from a histogram, or from a line graph of cumulati...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1460

Re: Buy a new car, or fix the old one?

Insurance can be cheaper on a new car. I traded an 92 Prelude for a late model used Accord and the insurance bill was cheaper on the Accord even after adding collision. This is because certain modern safety features reduce insurance rates a lot. (And, the drivers who choose Preludes might be more a...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy a new car, or fix the old one?
Replies: 55
Views: 3024

Re: Buy a new car, or fix the old one?

Insurance can be cheaper on a new car. I traded an 92 Prelude for a late model used Accord and the insurance bill was cheaper on the Accord even after adding collision. This is because certain modern safety features reduce insurance rates a lot. (And, the drivers who choose Preludes might be more ac...
by tadamsmar
Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy a new car, or fix the old one?
Replies: 55
Views: 3024

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

nisi, A 1% reduction in volatility would be like a 1% increase in the Sharpe ratio. That comparable to a 1% increase in returns with flat volatility. Whereas us Bogleheads get the vapors about a 0.1% reduction in the ER which is comparable to a 0.1% increase in returns. If you plotted a 1% decrease ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1460

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

Ninegrams wrote:No flu shot for me. Show me the peer reviewed studies of efficacy and maybe I'll change my mind.


Here's a list:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/publications.htm

But a summary for the common man is a easier to digest:

http://www.webmd.com/vaccines/how-effec ... lu-vaccine
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3004

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

Thanks for the links. I still don't see the age ranges but I assume children and the elderly are more likely to die from the flu than a healthy, say 20 year old. I'd also be interested in seeing the number per year -- not a range of 3,000 to 49,000. For the 2010 that includes both pneumonia and the...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3004

Re: Any reason not to buy the International Bond Index Fund?

Notice that Vanguard says "U.S. investors considering international bonds should balance the diversification benefits against both the costs involved and the inherent benefits of preserving a core allocation to the U.S. bond market" but doesn't say how to do it. Notice that Vanguard does ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason not to buy the International Bond Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1873

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

Influenza routinely kills 30,000 - 40,000 people per year in the USA. Traffic crashes, about the same. The Ebola outbreak has, this year, killed about 4,500 people worldwide. The number of people dying from West Nile Virus in the USA varies from less than a hundred up to a few hundred per year. Get...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3004

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

Indeed it is. So is wearing my seatbelt and not texting and driving. But until the flu shot becomes law (or I'm otherwise compelled to submit) I will leave you well enough alone. Last I checked they don't make enough for everyone anyway so I will kindly pass mine to the more susceptible. The shot y...
by tadamsmar
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3004

Re: Owning property jointly with family member

If I correctly assume that you own this property 50/50 with someone else, I don't see how the other party can do anything without your agreement. Net, when you say brother will give property to his son, how can ownership be transferred without you? I know that is not true in my state, NC. Any owner...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owning property jointly with family member
Replies: 15
Views: 1243

New case of Ebola in U.S.: Is it the latest market headwind?

Just had to post this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebola-and ... 32618.html

The media always identifies a cause for market fluctuation.

I particularly like the part where they take it all back:

but let’s be honest...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New case of Ebola in U.S.: Is it the latest market headwind?
Replies: 13
Views: 1303

Re: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS

The good news is that it's getting easier by the minute to adhere to my IPS.

Looks like I may not have to rebalance much after all on my birthday in November!
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1771

Re: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question

Big Mig wrote:Your father doesn't need to do anything until he's ready to make a withdrawal, except make sure the TSP has correct, up-to-date information. He can make changes on the web site if he moves, for example.


Note that he has to file for withdrawals, ready or not, by the deadline.
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question
Replies: 12
Views: 590

Re: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question

It's important to have your correct date of birth filed with the TSP, otherwise their process will not approximate your RMD's correctly.
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question
Replies: 12
Views: 590

Re: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question

The TSP even made a change to allow for the 2009 RMD suspension:

http://www.afsa.org/retiree/pension.pdf

Looks like they allowed participants to cut monthly payments to the minimum ($25) for 2009 and then change back to using life expectancy after 2009.
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question
Replies: 12
Views: 590

Re: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS

Just like every other day of the year, regardless of what the market does. Sure, it's not as fun as "It's a good day to be heavy in [insert whatever is up today]," but are we not Bogleheads? When I read that, my first thought was "Why would he post that?" My second thought was &...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1771

Re: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question

This seems to indicate that the payments based on life expectancy will a sufficiently good approximation: Payments are calculated based on IRS life expectancy tables.(5) (5) The IRS Single Life Table, Treas. Reg. § 1.401(a)(9)-9, Q&A-1, is used to calculate monthly payments based on life expecta...
by tadamsmar
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Withdrawal and RMD Question
Replies: 12
Views: 590
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