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Re: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies

Animal House....seriously
by swaption
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies
Replies: 21
Views: 1229

Re: Just had offer accepted on a house! (Advice pls!)

Assuming your accepted offer is pending inspection - hire a good inspector and have him nitpick the hell out of everything and attach a high dollar amount to every fix. Then use that info to pound the sellers into an even lower price. Once they are informed of defects, make sure you tell them they ...
by swaption
Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just had offer accepted on a house! (Advice pls!)
Replies: 29
Views: 1909

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

A couple of things. If it really is a risk story then it may come and go, but will likely be there often enough. If it is not a risk story then it may well go away forever. If it really is a risk story it may not show well in simple risk metrics like standard deviation. But the risk may still be th...
by swaption
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2217

Shiller on Housing Market

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-momentum-housing-stocks-shiller-141805700.html Shiller cautioned that he didn't want to be an alarmist-saying home prices are "kind of at a normal level" right now. He added: "My son just bought a house. I told him, 'Fine.'" As for housing pric...
by swaption
Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Housing Market
Replies: 0
Views: 392

Re: 31 yr old w/ $500k @ EdwardJones

carlweezer wrote:I feel sick that I neglected taking responsibility for making these decisions and not keeping a better eye on the excess charges.


Most of us have had this sickness. Perhaps the only way to build up immunity. Kind of like chicken pox, much better if you get it when you are young.
by swaption
Fri Apr 04, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 31 yr old w/ $500k @ EdwardJones
Replies: 26
Views: 3539

Re: Accept Job Offer from Company that Filed for Bankruptcy?

I think you really need to do your diligence on the company, but I would not immediately dismiss the opportunity. At your age, i wouldn't get too caught up in numbers of years experience, etc. The most important thing is putting yourself in a position to succeed doing what you want to do. You have t...
by swaption
Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accept Job Offer from Company that Filed for Bankruptcy?
Replies: 29
Views: 2248

Re: Being older/younger in class -- benefits, issues?

I'll share my personal experience, understanding that this is a sample of one, but being mindful this is in the spectrum of potential outcomes. My oldest daughter is a November birthday. She is also on the small side and not very outgoing. When she was pre-k age we considered holding her back, but u...
by swaption
Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Being older/younger in class -- benefits, issues?
Replies: 98
Views: 4774

Re: Great Finance History Book

Just finished. Really enjoyed this. Thanks!
by swaption
Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Finance History Book
Replies: 33
Views: 4142

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

Really? They were pretty much on top of each other at the peak and now look to be separated by about 25 points. One looks to be above the peak with the other well below. That's the same story? One is a median the other isn't. Looking at the general trend 2012 to present they both seem to be heading...
by swaption
Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6331

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

As you rightly point out, Case-Shiller looks nothing like this. I went onto FRED and compared median new home price sales to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price index and they look like they're telling the same story to me: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&recession_b...
by swaption
Tue Mar 25, 2014 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6331

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

Seems to me that house resales are more indicative of the state of the housing market than new house sales, given that resales represent the vast majority of the market. The story is a little different using resales. That's not to say that there isn't a new bubble starting - who knows - but Case-Sh...
by swaption
Tue Mar 25, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6331

Re: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)

I wonder what the percent of leased cars get purchased by the original lessee? I'll bet it's in the single digits. To say I have a decent grasp of this is putting mildly, but single digits is a bit on the low end. Not surprisingly, luxury cars do have very high lease return rates in the 70% - 90% r...
by swaption
Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)
Replies: 47
Views: 2916

Re: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)

What you are talking about (the embedded option at the end) is a "put option". The option to "put" the vehicle back to the lessor and be done. To be precise (what else would you expect given my moniker), only when viewed as a loan is it a put option. As part of the lease, it is ...
by swaption
Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)
Replies: 47
Views: 2916

Re: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)

Feel the need to correct a few things here: First the FACTS - a car lease, under the covers, is a balloon loan amortized over an extended period (perhaps 84 - 96 months), with the balloon due at the completion of the lease (say 36 months) in an amount that is keyed to the guaranteed "value"...
by swaption
Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)
Replies: 47
Views: 2916

Re: Bogleheads Stance on Home Buying

This is why vehicles, though assets, are rarely called investments - almost all cars depreciate in value and you wouldn't expect it to provide any kind of financial return. I'll actually go that step further and say that a purchase of a vehicle is in fact an investment. The return can easily be mea...
by swaption
Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads Stance on Home Buying
Replies: 61
Views: 4570

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

This article on the overall subject of constructing these metrics is well worth reading--a couple of times: http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/valuation-and-returns-adventures-in-curve-fitting/ One of the interesting takeaways is that these various price-to-X ratios have histori...
by swaption
Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 1519

Re: What premium items are least worth it?

In car built in navigation systems. Very expensive, usually inferior to Garmin or google maps, and not portable.
by swaption
Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What premium items are least worth it?
Replies: 105
Views: 5622

Re: Marvin vs. Andersen Windows: The Eternal Struggle

Have had Andersen 400 for several years, never really considered Marvin. This was primarily due to cost and there wasn't any apparent benefit as compared to Andersen. No issues so far.
by swaption
Thu Mar 13, 2014 5:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marvin vs. Andersen Windows: The Eternal Struggle
Replies: 27
Views: 1784

Re: Advise please: Tree fell on our car at DH workplace

Yes agree with JT. As well, regardless of whether it is covered or not(although I would bet it is), your insurance premium is unlikely to go up. Generally the stuff that impacts that are things that indicate increased risk like moving violations or accidents where you are at fault. My wife just ran ...
by swaption
Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advise please: Tree fell on our car at DH workplace
Replies: 22
Views: 1586

Re: S&P 500 10-Yr Expected Equity Risk Premium

The purpose of using E10 is to normalize earnings. So let's assume that E1 was already normal, and that all of the prior 9 years were normal as well. In such a circumstance, theoretically there would be no problem using E1. So consider how in such a scenario the normal E1 would differ significantly ...
by swaption
Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 10-Yr Expected Equity Risk Premium
Replies: 7
Views: 985

Re: Best rewards/travel credit card

Starwood AMEX. No blackout periods and very good bang for the buck (USA Today had an article that indicated it was actually the best bang for the buck). For example, will be booking a room that would otherwise go for about $800/night for five nights using 80k points. I have also found very nice hote...
by swaption
Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best rewards/travel credit card
Replies: 26
Views: 1924

Re: Forbes Article Disagreeing with Buffett

How can one adjust for inflation and not dividends? Obviously easy enough to do, and he acknowledges the necessity near the end. But of course that would only dilute the message. Come to think of it, what exactly was the message?
by swaption
Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Article Disagreeing with Buffett
Replies: 7
Views: 941

Re: Buy vs rent no longer relevant?

For those of us that believe in functioning markets, buying generally comes with increased risk, but better long term economic expectations. Once we get past all of the anecdotal/behavioral/self validating BS the often populates this kind of thread, that's really what it comes down to. Believe what ...
by swaption
Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy vs rent no longer relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 5843

Re: Costco vs BJs vs Sams Club

Costco by a mile. Belonged to BJ's for a while and now I have seen the light. In particular, the Kirkland branded stuff is very good. Examples are their paper towels, laundry detergent, tomato sauce, extra virgin olive oil, and tuna. There is a Forbes article on the tuna that will tell you something...
by swaption
Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Costco vs BJs vs Sams Club
Replies: 53
Views: 4005

Re: Best place to buy backpacking and camping gear

Sierra Trading Post is fantastic. You can get a significant discount off already low prices initially by signing up to get their Deal Flyer e-mails, and then they continuously offer coupons. Generally a min of 35% off can be had, and some stuff can get to be 45% off. For instance the Smart Wool sock...
by swaption
Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy backpacking and camping gear
Replies: 24
Views: 1424

Re: Generac recall? (And if so, a scam anyway!?)

What's the recall? I installed a Generac within the last couple of years.
by swaption
Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Generac recall? (And if so, a scam anyway!?)
Replies: 6
Views: 513

Re: LED bulb prices

Just purchased 4 (40W-equivalent) LED bulbs at less than $3.50 per bulb with tax and free shipping from Staples: http://dealnews.com/Brighton-Professional-6-W-A19-LED-Light-Bulb-2-Pack-for-7-free-shipping/997920.html Thanks for this. Out of stock online, but have few pack on hold at my local store....
by swaption
Thu Mar 06, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED bulb prices
Replies: 104
Views: 8067

Re: Trip through New England

This should keep you busy (and make you very hungry). http://www.lobstergal.com Been to many of these places and she knows her stuff. The places in New Hampshire for fried clams seem like a good bet and the lobster roll before going over the bridge in Kennebunk. Been to one of the recommended spots ...
by swaption
Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip through New England
Replies: 39
Views: 1418

Re: stayed out of the market, what to do now?

Do you drive a car while only looking in the rearview mirrow? The first two paragraphs in the original post are essentially irrelevant. The only aspect that merits consideration is some self examination of your decision making process,, both then and now. So what you are left with is a question of h...
by swaption
Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: stayed out of the market, what to do now?
Replies: 64
Views: 7348

Re: Auto Leasing - Incentives

Mileage restrictions are not a factor. For reference, I've put roughly 15,500 miles on a car I began leasing in August 2011. Yes, but your low mileage is a factor. The bulk of depreciation is due to the age of the vehicle, with a secondary factor being mileage. With any lease (or new car purchase) ...
by swaption
Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Leasing - Incentives
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: Auto Leasing - Incentives

Mileage restrictions are not a factor. For reference, I've put roughly 15,500 miles on a car I began leasing in August 2011. Yes, but your low mileage is a factor. The bulk of depreciation is due to the age of the vehicle, with a secondary factor being mileage. With any lease (or new car purchase) ...
by swaption
Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Leasing - Incentives
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Some of us who use PE/10 to mitigate risk in our stock portfolio would rather sacrifice return when stocks are expensive and live to fight another day. This seems to be a popular refrain, the risk mitigation vs. market timing angle. But in my mind there is that other risk that this is merely ration...
by swaption
Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 5748

Re: Job Offer Negotiation / Interview Snafu

1. What is the turnover rate in the group? 2. What are the core hours? Is there flex starting/ending times on a daily basis? And will we be issued a company cell phone and when will we be expected to be available? (I'm hoping these questions will give me a good idea of how many hours a normal week ...
by swaption
Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer Negotiation / Interview Snafu
Replies: 174
Views: 14967

Re: LED bulb prices

I needed Par 30 short neck to replace Halogens in my kitchen. Very hard to find a cost effective replacement. But finally found a new brand Sunsun at a site Earth LED. Apparently a new Chinese company funded by some venture capital money. Really nice bulbs, and dim much better than other CREE bulbs ...
by swaption
Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED bulb prices
Replies: 104
Views: 8067

Re: Are 20 somethings handicapped bc of inflation and little

I'm actually a bit more concerned/empathetic for 30 something's. Many arrived just in time, maybe even buying a house, only to run right into the financial crisis locomotive. They also entered a world where entitlement was the norm, and it all seemed a lot easier than it actually was. To these folks...
by swaption
Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are 20 somethings handicapped bc of inflation and little SS?
Replies: 162
Views: 10272

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

The paper is well-worth reading and persuasively argues that adding information about interest rates doesn't improve a standard PE10 model for predicting long-term returns. In other words, we shouldn't think that stocks have lower valuations just because interest rates are low. Oh my goodness. Firs...
by swaption
Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 5748

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Conclusion: When we adjust P/E ratios for the yield on high-grade bonds, the S&P looks reasonably priced. Any argument that we should rely on non-adjusted P/E ratios (like PE10) needs to explain why interest rates on bonds are not a relevant factor to whether or not stocks are overvalued. Yeah,...
by swaption
Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 5748

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Conclusion: When we adjust P/E ratios for the yield on high-grade bonds, the S&P looks reasonably priced. Any argument that we should rely on non-adjusted P/E ratios (like PE10) needs to explain why interest rates on bonds are not a relevant factor to whether or not stocks are overvalued. Yeah,...
by swaption
Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 5748

Re: Home remodel - need confirmation that we can afford it

Oh! for goodness sake remodel the house. You can afford it and it will make the home more enjoyable. $85K is a bargain, if that's what it will really cost...or if it is close to the cost. Plan on 10-15% more. And, if you make changes during the process it will likely add more cost. However, the con...
by swaption
Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home remodel - need confirmation that we can afford it
Replies: 51
Views: 3086

Re: Does Vanguard spend "our" money on Lobbying activities?

....Much of the lobbying is actually a very constructive process by which regulation gets scultpeted into something that actually works. Absent lobbying, many in Washington would operate in a vaccum, with the inevitable result being a world constantly at risk of grinding to a halt, with no organize...
by swaption
Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Vanguard spend "our" money on Lobbying activities?
Replies: 49
Views: 3469

Re: Do children become less expensive as they grow up?

If I had to do it all over again, I would not have let my daughters get so involved in figure skating. THankfully I got one to quit when she started high school, and I didn't spend 20k a year (they were never going to the olympics), and grandpa helped in the later years. Totally ridiculous amounts ...
by swaption
Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do children become less expensive as they grow up?
Replies: 93
Views: 6499

Re: Does Vanguard spend "our" money on Lobbying activities?

A quick note. Vanguard is not a non-profit, but it is a mutual organization, owned by the fund investors. In practice this means Vanguard provides its management services at cost, there are no individual shareholders who receive dividends (or have the ability to sell shares). If Vanguard consistent...
by swaption
Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Vanguard spend "our" money on Lobbying activities?
Replies: 49
Views: 3469

Re: Do children become less expensive as they grow up?

I have to laugh. Definitely not. I see the mention of figure skating expenses. I can check that box. For my other girl it was gymnastics and now dance. This won't be applicable to everyone, but throw in summer camp and in my case two Bat Mitzvahs. Given that I have saved well for college, the irony ...
by swaption
Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do children become less expensive as they grow up?
Replies: 93
Views: 6499

Re: Which Chromebook?

You might want to look at the HP Chromebook 14. I've had one for 2 months now and like it a lot. 14" screen is nice. It's fast and easy to use. I bought it from Amazon. Check it out there. Here are a few stats: (Intel Celeron 2955U 1.4 GHz (2 MB Cache) 2 GB DDR3L SDRAM 16 GB Solid-State Drive ...
by swaption
Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Chromebook?
Replies: 42
Views: 2547

Re: Good Idea to Sell Old Home To Upgrade To Newer Home?

This is a trick question, right? What could possibly make this a good idea? For vanity? I'd say count your blessings that you own a home at this young age, focus on other things, and stay here until you have kids, and even then maybe a couple more years. Then you'll know far better what you will nee...
by swaption
Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Idea to Sell Old Home To Upgrade To Newer Home?
Replies: 33
Views: 2263

Re: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?

By the way, just because I have it in front of me, JPM Asset Management provides 10 - 15 year asset class projections. For US large cap it is 7.50%, for global equity it is 7.75%, for US REITs it is 6.75%. Any mention of International REITs? Only thing they have is unlevered European Real Estate at...
by swaption
Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?
Replies: 44
Views: 3341

Re: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?

By the way, just because I have it in front of me, JPM Asset Management provides 10 - 15 year asset class projections. For US large cap it is 7.50%, for global equity it is 7.75%, for US REITs it is 6.75%.
by swaption
Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?
Replies: 44
Views: 3341

Re: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?

But I'm more in favor of 'the best predictor of the future is the past' when it comes to investing decisions over long periods. Sure someone can get fancy with P/E ratios and other metrics, but I'm not a strong believer that they are reliable indicators either. Where did you ever get the idea that ...
by swaption
Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?
Replies: 44
Views: 3341

Re: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?

Here is what keeps me ambitious about REITs: Portfolio 1 = Total US Stock Mkt Portfolio 2 = Intl Stock Market Portfolio 3 = REITs http://s18.postimg.org/pgajnics9/2014_02_14_134132.png http://s28.postimg.org/6mbv6cvf1/2014_02_14_134159.png Source: http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com They appear to b...
by swaption
Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs still overvalued, as they were in 2013?
Replies: 44
Views: 3341

Re: Leverage Your Way To A Richer Retirement

IMO the actionable and relevant part of this is not the exact strategy (and obviously just because something backtests doesn't make it optimal) but as yet another datapoint based on systematic analysis that "conservative" seeming strategies can be anything but, unless you have over-saved ...
by swaption
Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage Your Way To A Richer Retirement
Replies: 28
Views: 3694
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