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Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Browser Yes it is IMO. There is no anomaly about value stocks having higher returns based on cost of capital story. The only issue is are investors mispricing value stocks for behavioral reasons. I don't think that is correct. IMO the anomaly is really small growth stocks vastly overvalued by inves...
by swaption
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3034

Re: Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rat

It’s a 30-minute instrument if you’ve been wrong on interest rates and it’s a 30-year instrument if you’ve been right on interest rates.


Classic Buffett. Love this.
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rates
Replies: 77
Views: 8734

Re: Gambling versus Investing

OK,let's look at your definition: "The process of exposing oneself to some form of variable economic outcome with no commensurate expectation of incremental return." By that definition playing Blackjack while card counting (and using proper money management) is not gambling. It's that wha...
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2182

Re: Gambling versus Investing

Look at the posts on this thread, seems to me that most of you believe: investing = skillful gambling gambling = unskillful gambling However, your word-usage gets in the way of seeing the obvious. I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. I don't think investment in a diversified portfolio such as i...
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2182

Re: Gambling versus Investing

Look at the posts on this thread, seems to me that most of you believe: investing = skillful gambling gambling = unskillful gambling However, your word-usage gets in the way of seeing the obvious. I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. I don't think investment in a diversified portfolio such as i...
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2182

Re: Gambling versus Investing

In my mind, investing in a single stock has a significant element of gambling regardless of the level of research that goes into the investment decision. I would define gambling as follows: The process of exposing oneself to some form of variable economic outcome with no commensurate expectation of ...
by swaption
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2182

Re: Snow Blower

Another vote for Ariens. I had a single stage Honda, which I sold because I needed more. Hondas are top notch, but they price at a significant premium. My Ariens is 24", although I might have gotten bigger if I had more space in garage. Driveway sounds like it is about like yours. When I bought...
by swaption
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Snow Blower
Replies: 49
Views: 2598

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Let me ask the question differently, what evidence would convince you that someone could systematically beat the house and make money betting on horse racing or college football? The mechanism by which betting odds and lines are established is not all that different than the mechanism that sets the...
by swaption
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 15253

Re: How to look at real estate ROI

I would like to get some opinions on this. This is what I was taught and it makes sense to me, but please poke holes in it. The idea is that you should calculate real estate return (appreciation, realized on sale of the property) pretty much the same way you would calculate return on any other inve...
by swaption
Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to look at real estate ROI
Replies: 21
Views: 2187

Re: confronting a coworker

This past April, I reserved off time around Christmas to avoid the situation from happening again, and both my fiancee and mother are working Christmas day, and would have our Christmas on the 24th. My coworker and I had a conversation the other day (and, admittedly I forgot I put the request on th...
by swaption
Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: confronting a coworker
Replies: 44
Views: 3587

Re: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market

"You might think this should be the reverse, that the stock market should go down when people are anxious. People are anxious because of (geopolitical unrest), because of inequality, and people are worried about being replaced by a computer. All these things are on people's minds." But be...
by swaption
Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market
Replies: 42
Views: 4597

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

I just want say that this may now officially be the most bazaar thread ever. I can't believe this started as what appeared to be budgeting for what most would agree are somewhat trivial amounts. But with each peel of the onion, we find a whole new onion, in fact an entire field of onions. Now we hav...
by swaption
Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 15720

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Wanted to touch on this part, our view on real estate, which I know most here don't share. Just one last thing, I don't really understand the above. How can you have any view on something like this? Granted finance is not science, but it certainly is not art. You can have a view on types of music, ...
by swaption
Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 15720

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Re. your assets, I'd be uncomfortable with such a large percentage tied up in real estate, but that's a discussion for another time. Perhaps you are expecting other gifts from your family over time, or a large inheritance, which makes this better... dunno. Good luck. Wanted to touch on this part, o...
by swaption
Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 15720

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Wow, I just don’t know where to start. Your story sounds like I would imagine many of the stories around me might be like. I live in an area where houses like you describe are not uncommon, where many have a second ski house, and as well the incomes at least on the surface would not necessarily appe...
by swaption
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 15720

Re: How to pay for Home Addition

the reason i think it may make financial sense to do this, is strictly b/c i bought 10 years ago, have some equity and it has appreciated. if i sold, i would do well, but when i bought a bigger house nearby i would simply be paying more for the next place. so my thinking was the 150k in appreciatio...
by swaption
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay for Home Addition
Replies: 23
Views: 2146

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

You did not make any "fundamental mistake", in fact you have done nothing wrong. I think for some reason you seem to be equating the traditional measures of winning/losing with some measure of self worth. As a result, life seems to have become a burden because of the constant reminders of ...
by swaption
Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 130
Views: 13911

Re: Home Affordability [check my calculations]

Cool, was reading the entire thread with interest, made no note of the date, and then saw the follow up. Like a nice little short story with an ending and everything. This might not have been my choice, in fact when in a similar position and older, we continued to rent in NYC, and then later bought ...
by swaption
Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Affordability [check my calculations]
Replies: 85
Views: 5689

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Hi bluejello, You sound like you are all good, but for some reason I do feel compelled to offer my last 2 cents. No need to reply further, but I do hope you are still reading this. Ultimately I think about this 50/50 solution and while it may ultimately work out financially, it bothers me. To put it...
by swaption
Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7803

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

A very thought provoking post. Being a finance guy myself (and for quite some time working amongst other finance guys), I think I pretty much understand the situation. I think the fundamental problem here is that the two of you have completely different objectives. Your objectives are those that ar...
by swaption
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7803

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

A very thought provoking post. Being a finance guy myself (and for quite some time working amongst other finance guys), I think I pretty much understand the situation. I think the fundamental problem here is that the two of you have completely different objectives. Your objectives are those that are...
by swaption
Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7803

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

The OP's analysis fails in the most fundamental aspect: he has converted a problem with a crucial unknown, actual individual lifespan, into a problem that ignores this aspect completely, a fixed period annuity or mortgage. If we actually knew how long we will live, then financial planning would be ...
by swaption
Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: When did you feel "Out of the Woods"?

I would say come to terms with the uncertainties inherent in life, because my bet is it ain't going to change for you any time soon. Being out fo the woods might not be so great anyway, so you might as well learn to enjoy the woods. Put differently, with no house and no kids yet, the way I see it yo...
by swaption
Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did you feel "Out of the Woods"?
Replies: 42
Views: 5447

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

I tend to agree with Prof Emeritus' sources that annuitizing is a beneficial concept but nonetheless, I would really like to know what the Insurance Company's cut on a typical SPIA is. Stated more simply: If an actuarily perfect SPIA for a certain set of conditions yields $1000 a month for life, wh...
by swaption
Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

My guess is that there are a whole bunch of things standing between this and the appropiate apples to apples analysis, but a couple of things come to mind off the top. I think it may be best to look at the cash flows as akin to a mortgage that amortizes over 20.4 years based on equal periodic paymen...
by swaption
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Let me ask the question differently, what evidence would convince you that someone could systematically beat the house and make money betting on horse racing or college football? The mechanism by which betting odds and lines are established is not all that different than the mechanism that sets the ...
by swaption
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 15253

Re: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investmen

But alas those decisions are co-mingled all the time in real life housing decisions. I agree, they are distinct in principal if not in practice. Fine, so the next time there is a thread comparing index funds to active funds, let's make sure we use a disproportionate mix of large growth funds in tha...
by swaption
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investment?
Replies: 125
Views: 6534

Re: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investmen

What really blows my mind is the inanity of the repeated posts on this topic. Forget about whether a house can be considered an investment. Any further thoughts I could possibly provide here would be the equivalent of shooting a toy water pistol at a forest fire. I think the far more interesting qu...
by swaption
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investment?
Replies: 125
Views: 6534

Re: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investmen

What really blows my mind is the inanity of the repeated posts on this topic. Forget about whether a house can be considered an investment. Any further thoughts I could possibly provide here would be the equivalent of shooting a toy water pistol at a forest fire. I think the far more interesting qu...
by swaption
Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investment?
Replies: 125
Views: 6534

Re: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investmen

What really blows my mind is the inanity of the repeated posts on this topic. Forget about whether a house can be considered an investment. Any further thoughts I could possibly provide here would be the equivalent of shooting a toy water pistol at a forest fire. I think the far more interesting que...
by swaption
Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investment?
Replies: 125
Views: 6534

Re: Angry when stock market is down

Does anyone else get angry/edgy/cranky on days where the stock market is down? In the last couple of days, I find little things "set me off". But maybe it could also be other factors in my life. For instance, it's annoying to see REITs down 1.8% today. I won't sell, but I'm just annoyed. ...
by swaption
Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 4205

Re: Angry when stock market is down

I work in a very volatile environment. Every day, I show up and ask the crowd what they think of me. On some days, they tell me I'm a loser and my decisions will inevitably lead to failure and the collective lack of respect from the world at large. On other days, they proclaim me a wise man that wil...
by swaption
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 4205

Re: Rental rate of return

I tell you, there is a Boglehead joke in here somewhere. Something like "How would a Boglehead value a company? He would give you a long speech about how it is waste of time and then recommend you read a book." In this case the annual cash flows are -$18,600, -$17,800, -$16,000, -$15,200,...
by swaption
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental rate of return
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house

Criminal defense lawyer here: Please don't call the police. A charge, even a misdemeanor one like trespassing or criminal mischief, can have lifetime consequences for a kid who is probably just bored. Approach him directly and firmly and say, "Hey kid, I know you're throwing rocks at my house....
by swaption
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house
Replies: 55
Views: 3185

Re: Rental rate of return

I tell you, there is a Boglehead joke in here somewhere. Something like "How would a Boglehead value a company? He would give you a long speech about how it is waste of time and then recommend you read a book." In this case the annual cash flows are -$18,600, -$17,800, -$16,000, -$15,200,...
by swaption
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental rate of return
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Rental rate of return

I tell you, there is a Boglehead joke in here somewhere. Something like "How would a Boglehead value a company? He would give you a long speech about how it is waste of time and then recommend you read a book." In this case the annual cash flows are -$18,600, -$17,800, -$16,000, -$15,200, ...
by swaption
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental rate of return
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Rental rate of return

Easiest way is to assume you sell the property at the end of year 6. You can assume $100k or whatever. Then you just do a simple IRR using the actual cash flow.
by swaption
Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental rate of return
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing

Lifetime tennis player here, even now in my 50’s enjoying the game and pushing myself. Currently reading W. Timothy Gallwey’s (now updated) classic The Inner Game of Tennis. Essentially, the book centers around a Self 1 and a Self 2 approach. At the risk of paraphrasing, the Self 1 tends to try and...
by swaption
Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 667

The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing

Lifetime tennis player here, even now in my 50’s enjoying the game and pushing myself. Currently reading W. Timothy Gallwey’s (now updated) classic The Inner Game of Tennis. Essentially, the book centers around a Self 1 and a Self 2 approach. At the risk of paraphrasing, the Self 1 tends to try and ...
by swaption
Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 667

Re: relo property and "illegal" partially finished basement

Not surprised to see the requisite indignation on something like this "illegal" basement. But let me share my view from here in NY. Was the basement included in the square footage of the listed house? My guess would be no. Standard operating procedure in my neck of the woods is that finis...
by swaption
Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: relo property and "illegal" partially finished basement
Replies: 23
Views: 1342

Re: relo property and "illegal" partially finished basement

Not surprised to see the requisite indignation on something like this "illegal" basement. But let me share my view from here in NY. Was the basement included in the square footage of the listed house? My guess would be no. Standard operating procedure in my neck of the woods is that finish...
by swaption
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: relo property and "illegal" partially finished basement
Replies: 23
Views: 1342

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

What I meant was that I can't take the risk of not investment in the market. I know many wealthy individuals who can live on their assets indefinitely (or will eventually inherit money that savings are not an issue). While everyone wants more money, these individuals see the market as more of a gam...
by swaption
Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6559

Re: Fantasy football debt owed

I am the commissioner in my league and I think this is the 14th season. All good friends going back more than 30 years. I now do beginning of year collection. In the past, when I collected at the end, I would not disburse funds until all checks were in. Having said that, in this case I would suggest...
by swaption
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fantasy football debt owed
Replies: 27
Views: 2028

Re: Trip to the Caribbean - Suggestions

I'll chime in with a couple good points about my home Island of Aruba - it's very easy to get around, and it is VERY safe, especially compared to the rest of the Caribbean Natalee Holloway. +1. I am kind of shocked that the normally level-headed and evidence-based members of this forum are worried ...
by swaption
Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip to the Caribbean - Suggestions
Replies: 39
Views: 2717

Re: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home

To me it is like setting your alarm clock ahead to "trick" yourself into getting up early; just a behavioral gimmick that only works if somehow you pretend to forget you did it. :happy But honestly Rodc, I think your creative efforts are being put to waste here. At this point on this topi...
by swaption
Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home
Replies: 135
Views: 16443

Re: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home

This statement is where I disagree with you. At the time of a disaster you just don't know. The knowledge you gain in 13 years after the disaster is not relevant at the point when you live the disaster. In the fall of 2001, Lower Manhattan was devastated physically, financially, and emotionally. Th...
by swaption
Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home
Replies: 135
Views: 16443

Re: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home

This statement is where I disagree with you. At the time of a disaster you just don't know. The knowledge you gain in 13 years after the disaster is not relevant at the point when you live the disaster. In the fall of 2001, Lower Manhattan was devastated physically, financially, and emotionally. Th...
by swaption
Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home
Replies: 135
Views: 16443

Re: How much do you plan to save in your 529 plan?

Can someone define what a "2nd tier expensive private college" is? Names for example? Well, this is an easy way to offend large numbers of alumni, but here are some examples often considered to fall in this group: + Northwestern + Middlebury + Rice + Johns Hopkins + Emory + Tufts Those sc...
by swaption
Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you plan to save in your 529 plan?
Replies: 60
Views: 7070

Re: New Investor!! Did I make a mistake?

OP - you may have accidently done a brillant move. If you have little to no other income, then consider exchanging the rest of the Star fund for some other Vanguard fund/etf as you will get the capital gains benefit at 0% (long term ones). So later in 10-50 years when you sell the same units/shares...
by swaption
Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor!! Did I make a mistake?
Replies: 39
Views: 1604

Re: B&H Photo - NY City Experience

Well worth a visit if you ever are in NY. One of these uniquely NY experiences. Truely an impressive operation.
by swaption
Tue Aug 19, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: B&H Photo - NY City Experience
Replies: 35
Views: 2393
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