Search found 1092 matches

by swaption
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?
Replies: 20
Views: 1601

Re: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?

Just have to reply to this. Simply put, you are awesome. What you may see as your own personal deficiencies, one might view as a very valuable ability to view one self accurately, albeit perhaps too critically. When climbing a mountain, each step seems almost too trivial to make a difference. Why bo...
by swaption
Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Refinance - Holy closing costs batman!
Replies: 26
Views: 2409

Re: Mortgage Refinance - Holy closing costs batman!

I am in NY, and know this situation well. It is the mortgage tax. You technically do not need to pay it again, but that would involve an assignment of the existing mortgage, which requires the cooperation of your existing bank. This might be ok, but it will cost you, and it could be a decent amount ...
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8060

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The real reason I made this topic was because I don't understand how domestic and internal stocks could both experience a 7% decline in one week. Stock price is supposed to track fundamental earnings. How can the fundamental earnings of two massive regions both fall at the exact same time? It sound...
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8060

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The real reason I made this topic was because I don't understand how domestic and internal stocks could both experience a 7% decline in one week. Stock price is supposed to track fundamental earnings. How can the fundamental earnings of two massive regions both fall at the exact same time? It sound...
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8060

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

I'm going to give you an analogy. I kind of like my analogies, but I really like this one. Wish there was a career in this, sort of like a greeting card writer. What you are suggesting is akin to watching ocean waves for 5 minutes and trying to figure out whether the tide is rising. Will expand on ...
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8060

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

I'm going to give you an analogy. I kind of like my analogies, but I really like this one. Wish there was a career in this, sort of like a greeting card writer.

What you are suggesting is akin to watching ocean waves for 5 minutes and trying to figure out whether the tide is rising.
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?
Replies: 71
Views: 7352

Re: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?

Actually the Efficient Market Hypothesis (which guides popular index fund investing today) was conceived by Eugene Fama, an Economics PhD and Nobel winner. FWIW, Eugene Fama has a 100% stock portfolio. :happy I'll field this one. His "coefficient of constant relative risk aversion" must b...
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?
Replies: 71
Views: 7352

Re: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?

...Interestingly the more I refine my model the closer it converges to the Bogle portfolio of 65 TSM / 35 TBM. And he only had a B.A. ... Most of your learning will take place after you get out of academia. Real learning or "learning"? Most of what the popular media writes about economics...
by swaption
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?
Replies: 71
Views: 7352

Re: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?

rca1824 wrote:I've switched to a simpler model of looking at annual returns and standard deviations and computing the optimal portfolio given a range of utility functions.


Right up there among the most entertaining things I have seen written on these boards. What in the world was your not simpler model?
by swaption
Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed up for a promotion, now what?
Replies: 34
Views: 4467

Re: Passed up for a promotion, now what?

So, what should I do? >> Confront the VP - nothing serious or dramatic - but just say something like "I need an answer or I'm going to start looking for another job" ? I must say, I got a chuckle out of this. if this isn't serious or dramatic, then I'd be real interested in your version o...
by swaption
Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14676

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

I'll end with a quote: Market prices, let me stress, have their limitations in the short term. Monthly or yearly movements of stocks are often erratic and not indicative of changes in intrinsic value. Over time, however, stock prices and intrinsic value almost invariably converge. You know, there i...
by swaption
Fri Jul 31, 2015 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frustrated with low raise
Replies: 71
Views: 5363

Re: Frustrated with low raise

Are you any more valuable to your employer than you were before? If not, were you being underpaid? Theoretically, this should be the starting point.
by swaption
Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March
Replies: 34
Views: 1948

Re: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March

Hello - one of the best ways to experience Bryce is via the horseback trail ride. My wife & I did it years ago during a summer month and it was spectacular. March maybe too early for that, but if it is available, I would recommend it. Enjoy your family, you will have a great time! Thanks. Kind ...
by swaption
Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Exam Results
Replies: 19
Views: 2077

Re: CFA Exam Results

Nicely done, and agree 100% with your comments. Having completed a high level MBA program and worked in banking for more than a decade, I was really impressed with the comprehensive nature of the curriculum. For what it's worth, I thought Level III was by far the hardest.
by swaption
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March
Replies: 34
Views: 1948

Re: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March

Thank you all. While obviously not a travel forum, clearly I came to the right place. This is now what I am thinking: 1 Night Vegas – Land late, visit Hoover Dam next day, and then drive to Zion (double back a bit, but it is what it is) 3 Nights Zion – Really ends up being two full days, likely dep...
by swaption
Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March
Replies: 34
Views: 1948

Re: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March

Thank you all. While obviously not a travel forum, clearly I came to the right place. This is now what I am thinking: 1 Night Vegas – Land late, visit Hoover Dam next day, and then drive to Zion (double back a bit, but it is what it is) 3 Nights Zion – Really ends up being two full days, likely depa...
by swaption
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March
Replies: 34
Views: 1948

Zion, Bryce, Grand Canyon Late March

Way off investing, but figure I trust the wisdom here as muach as anywhere. Thinking 8 nights end of March, 2016 with wife and daughters age 15 and 13. Land in Las Vegans, first night in LV, 2 nights Zion, 1 night Bryce, 1 night Page/lake Powell, 2 nights GC South Rim, and 1 night Sedona, fly out of...
by swaption
Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home landscaping dilemma
Replies: 21
Views: 2243

Re: Home landscaping dilemma

I budgeted 10% of the home value (~$40k) for the pool and landscaping having read that is a good rule of thumb. Think aboout this for a second, how is your initial estimate of $40k anything other than arbitrary? Does this mean that the very modest homes in my area selling for $1 million should spen...
by swaption
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 19755

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

My employer is loyal to me until they're not; and I am loyal to them until I'm not. Great point! I truthfully do not look at my employer the same way. Not because they had to do layoffs to survive, but I heard none of the Partners took a penny less of their huge bonuses. If they all got together an...
by swaption
Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "market timing" home purchase for seasonal price variation and expected interest rate increase?
Replies: 4
Views: 479

Re: "market timing" home purchase for seasonal price variation and expected interest rate increase?

Seasonality exists primarily due to school calendars, with the spring being the biggest selling season so kids can start the next year in a new school. Flexibility around this can be beneficial. In terms of housing prices going down as a result of interest rate moves. It might be worth considering t...
by swaption
Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just what is "management" and "exectutive" anyway
Replies: 14
Views: 2437

Re: Just what is "management" and "exectutive" anyway

In my mind, Management is when your job entails HR related issues relevant to others. These would include hiring decisions, compensation, career progression, etc.
by swaption
Mon Jun 15, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Buying a Home Could Cost You
Replies: 36
Views: 7921

Re: Not Buying a Home Could Cost You

I'm not sure why they assume interest rates and housing prices will continue climbing. Mike Yeah, no doubt. In the case of home prices rising at levels consistent with historic norms no less. It's almost as if they would want to think now that we have emerged from the housing lunacy, we can go back...
by swaption
Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Buying a Home Could Cost You
Replies: 36
Views: 7921

Not Buying a Home Could Cost You

Quantification of owning vs. renting by markets from a very partial source can be found here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-buying-home-could-cost-182337704.html and the original source here: http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/financial-benefit-buying-a-home-now/ I know this is from realtor.com,...
by swaption
Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?
Replies: 84
Views: 8996

Re: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?

there is an assumption/expectation that over the long run (30 years), the markets generally keep rising? No, i would say more accurately that there is an assumption/expectation that the markets are functioning and doing their job. Investing is a means to defer consumption to provide others with cap...
by swaption
Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Men's dress shirts - Charles Tyrwhitt shirts on sale for $29
Replies: 33
Views: 5530

Re: Men's dress shirts - Charles Tyrwhitt shirts on sale for $29

They just had a 2 day thing over Memorial Day with multi-buy for $140, or $35 a shirt. Included much more and what I wanted. Bought these for years. I don't buy non-iron. Really like the Egyptian Cotton which are available in herringbone and puppytooth. Have several of each. In terms of fit, agree t...
by swaption
Tue Jun 09, 2015 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car dealer wants me to compensate for underpayment
Replies: 182
Views: 13961

Re: Car dealer wants me to compensate for underpayment

I think I have come up with something analagous. You go to a restaurant. When you order, implicit in that is a contract. You intend to pay for what you order at the prices indicated on the menu. When the check/invoice comes, you notice a relatively signififcant error, but pay the bill anyway. The re...
by swaption
Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car dealer wants me to compensate for underpayment
Replies: 182
Views: 13961

Re: Car dealer wants me to compensate for underpayment

In other words, they play games to get people to overpay all the time. So why should I play cricket when the tables are turned? I can't necessarily say exactly what i would do here. But I'm also not sure I would use a car dealer as my barometer of what is right and wrong, and life is a whole lot ea...
by swaption
Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: much ado about coasting (through life)
Replies: 256
Views: 35809

Re: much ado about coasting (through life)

VictoriaF wrote:Still, I think that the path is as important as the destination.


This. Only the person that climbs a mountain knows what it is like to climb a mountain. Hard to have a discussion on this topic in rational terms.
by swaption
Tue May 12, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Somebody hit our parked car today!!
Replies: 21
Views: 4298

Re: Somebody hit our parked car today!!

Couple of months ago my neighbor's college aged son on our 10 mph cul de sac ran into my car head on. It was snowing and he was coming down the hill and acknowledged he lost control of his car (in the presence of a police officer witness). When I asked him why he was driving so fast (which was obvio...
by swaption
Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 6117

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982

Pop Quiz #2. Is the following accurate? If no, why? A buyback decreases the number of shares available, thereby increasing the "Earnings Per Share" and making each share more valuable . Well.. "it depends"... it assumes a certain level of market efficiency, and that the market w...
by swaption
Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 6117

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982

Pop Quiz #2. Is the following accurate? If no, why?

JoMoney wrote:A buyback decreases the number of shares available, thereby increasing the "Earnings Per Share" and making each share more valuable.
by swaption
Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting While in 15% Bracket?
Replies: 21
Views: 1930

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting While in 15% Bracket?

I've done some tax gain harvesting in my kids UTMA accounts while in the 15% tax bracket. One thing to be aware of is state taxes. California, for instance, doesn't give you the capital gains 0% rate. So while the kids were able to sell stock free of federal taxes they did owe 6% state tax. I do th...
by swaption
Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4850

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

She is on a fairly new MVNO (Puppy Wireless) and pays $14.95/mo. for 350 messages, 350 texts and 35MB of data per month. FYI, we shut our data off (phone setting) unless we need it for a specific purpose such as looking up an address. This keeps cost down considerably but does limit functionality o...
by swaption
Fri Apr 17, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4850

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

Original poster here. Now have the LG Ultimate 2 (L41C) up and running on Tracfone, a 4.5" phone that gets great reviews. Bought on Amazon for $129.99 and includes 1200 minutes, 1200 texts, and 1.2 GB data for 1 year of service. Given my usage requirements, this should be enough. Uses the Veriz...
by swaption
Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you invest your house down payment?
Replies: 22
Views: 2230

Re: Would you invest your house down payment?

It's good to take the risk survey. How would you feel if the value of VSMGX declines by 50% within months of your initial purchase? Do you have nerves of steel to wait two years to wait for the value to come back or do you panic and sell? If VSMGX fell by 50% within months, then we would all be in ...
by swaption
Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing
Replies: 65
Views: 5022

Re: International Investing

This is a completely unsophisticated observation that has no figures whatsoever to back it up. I just got back from a vacation to New Zealand and Australia. While there I read the business and real estate sections of the local papers, kept an eye out for the amount of new commercial construction un...
by swaption
Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4850

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

+ 1 on the Moto G Actually, i would put -1 for the Moto G as it does not support 4G LTE. The phone to get now is the successor, the Moto E. Have decided to take advantage of my 15 day return policy for my above referenced LG and ordered a $99 Moto E from HSN. It includes 1200 minutes. When I get it...
by swaption
Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4850

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

Now having poked around a bit, I see the Moto E and LG Ultimate II look to be slightly better phones that can be had very inexpensively online, and also an Alcatel phone. I think all use the Verizon network, at least the Moto E does, which was important for me (T-Mobile and Sprint make the phone a b...
by swaption
Mon Apr 13, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4850

Inexpensive Smartphone

This may not be new news to many. For better or for worse I am all in on the expensive smartphone route. Mine is a Verizon family with 3 iPhones. I am the only one without an iphone, but I have an iPad with data capability. Had gone the prepaid route in the past, but for a number of reasons landed b...
by swaption
Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay Area
Replies: 117
Views: 13012

Re: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay A

Thank you for the wonderful post. I read every line of it too. Seems we're converging to the same ballpark. Lucky for you France is a great country to retire to ! Nice, St. Tropez, Antibes are wonderful towns. I wouldn't feel particularly good about freeloading on the healthcare over there, having ...
by swaption
Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 4053

Re: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?

Corporate bonds have two stages of credit risk. There's credit downgrade risk and credit default risk...I capture a credit downgrade risk premium by using the Vanguard High Yield Corporate Bond fund. Couple of things. Not sure I am a fan of the distinction between downgrade and default risk. It's a...
by swaption
Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay Area
Replies: 117
Views: 13012

Re: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay A

Its a no-win race for the common company man. What ever gave you the impression that a common company man would expect to live in a place like San Francisco, in a $1.5 million home, support 12 years of private school, and 4 years at a high end private university? There is a reason why people attemp...
by swaption
Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best albums of 2015
Replies: 92
Views: 12550

Re: Best albums of 2015

I don't generally listen to music not recorded in the past 5 years. I guess your view is that watches hold their value better than music... Try as I might, I can't get away from all of my old music. Would still go out of my way to see Neil Young in just about any of his formats, or Led Zeppelin for...
by swaption
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 227
Views: 20416

Re: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advis

I retitled the thread. OP - if you disagree, just edit the Subject: line in Post #1. For the purposes of this discussion, "financial advisor" refers to an Investment adviser . OP? He left the building some time ago when he realized he couldn't sell something. Paul Went back and read his o...
by swaption
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 24
Views: 2313

Re: Is this Investing or Speculating?

What everyone knows isn't worth knowing. I believe this is the hardest lesson for active investors to learn. Rick Ferri Love this quote, from Bernard Baruch. And it is a bet, based on the assumption that your investment premise is not much more developed than what you presented. Unfortunately, that...
by swaption
Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 74% of car loans are subprime.
Replies: 29
Views: 2282

Re: 74% of car loans are subprime.

Just heard today that Americans owe $783 billion on their cars, 74% of which is in subprime loans. So, that means that at least 74% of those with a car payment should have bought a cheaper car. Wow. This is sad people. Anyone agree? Hoosier PS. My source was a radio show, don't know where they got ...
by swaption
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26380

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

You don't get to use the 10 year yield for a rolling ladder I admit I don't use rolling ladders, I use funds so perhaps I'm in error there. Care to explain why not? Because the only bonds in a ladder that will have a current yield equal to the 10 year yield of 0.43% will only be that portion of the...
by swaption
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26380

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I mean, with real bond yields pretty much at 0 right now Average duration on Bogleheads seems to be around five years or so. Even a rolling ladder of 10yr TIPS is yielding more than zero, sure it's not huge but it's 0.43%. For a rolling ladder the duration would be around five years so the 5yr TIPS...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26380

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I thought maybe one last attempt. Perhaps worst case there might be others following along that might learn something. It's been a long discussion, the fact that there even was one surprised me. *shrug* It's possible I'm being an idiot, I'll go off and do some more reading. Who knows, it wouldn't b...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to retire in New England?
Replies: 101
Views: 9292

Re: Where to retire in New England?

I’ll share a story. Last summer was having cocktails in one of the most scenic spots in Big Sur, absolute perfection. Got to talking with our waitress. As it turned out, she moved out there from New England, with most of her time spent in Maine. Now living on a farm somewhere, with her kids going to...

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