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Re: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds

He is a great man in all the senses - smart, compassionate, hard-working, humorous but also notably humble! This is one of a few things I disagree with him on, but I try to remember he is coming from a different time in place - notably one in which international investing was difficult and cost-pro...
by swaption
Thu Jan 29, 2015 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds
Replies: 44
Views: 4879

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Why would your current expectations or concerns about the future be any more prescient or accurate than they were when you intitially invested in TIPS? You readily acknowledge that your fears regarding QE driven inflation have not come to fruition. I have some financial acumen...I work in corporate...
by swaption
Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 32
Views: 3276

Re: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds

You may find my notes of what Jack Bogle said about international investing at Bogleheads 11 of interest: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=104781&newpost=1521456 Including this quote from Jack himself: "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it'...
by swaption
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds
Replies: 44
Views: 4879

Re: Amazon Prime - good deal or calculated conditioning

Classic micro economics, where investment (the annual fee) reduces marginal cost, thereby driving up volume. Years ago, I lived in NYC and did not own a car. When I needed a car, I rented, but that was not very often, and it was expensive. When I owned a car (the investment), this drastically reduce...
by swaption
Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amazon Prime - good deal or calculated conditioning
Replies: 50
Views: 2822

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Why would your current expectations or concerns about the future be any more prescient or accurate than they were when you intitially invested in TIPS? You readily acknowledge that your fears regarding QE driven inflation have not come to fruition.
by swaption
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 32
Views: 3276

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

I would suggest they consider their potential to consistently make money betting on sports. Then consider the market mechanism by which security prices are determined. It should be relatively straight forward to draw an analogy between the two, essentially an individual or group against experts and...
by swaption
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 12665

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

BHs, can you help me? What's an easy way to convince freshman college students of EMH in 5 minutes? I would suggest they consider their potential to consistently make money betting on sports. Then consider the market mechanism by which security prices are determined. It should be relatively straigh...
by swaption
Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 12665

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

BHs, can you help me? What's an easy way to convince freshman college students of EMH in 5 minutes? I would suggest they consider their potential to consistently make money betting on sports. Then consider the market mechanism by which security prices are determined. It should be relatively straigh...
by swaption
Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 12665

Re: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k

How about his lieutenant, deRegt the retired head of fixed income sales and trading at Morgan Stanley. FYI, that isn't exactly a small job. I'm sure he can pretty much raise $100 mm at the snap of a finger. Unfortunately, this is what happens when you go from an employer that actually has a reputati...
by swaption
Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k.
Replies: 59
Views: 6660

Re: Psychology vs. Fundamentals of investing

Two things:

(1) I was drawn to the title "Psychology vs. Fundamentals of Investing", yet it is not at all clear to me how those concepts are relevant to the matters being discussed.

(2) How are you able to do any sort of fundamental analysis of Google?
by swaption
Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Psychology vs. Fundamentals of investing
Replies: 61
Views: 4509

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

Had not seen the subsequent replies from 2014 until now, but the recent markets harkened me back to this original thread. I often find these interactions with Dr. Bernstein akin to the punk intent to pick a fight with the biggest guy in the bar, and I guess in this case I was the punk. But one can r...
by swaption
Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 120
Views: 16420

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

I often debate your question with some of my friends who are die-hard stock pickers. They have done extremely well over the years by picking and choosing companies to invest in. I invest in broad-market index funds. Their portfolios have out-performed mine on a year-to-year basis. They make no clai...
by swaption
Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 142
Views: 15625

Re: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holding

Ultimately, the primary points that Bogle makes and those held by many others, really come down to systematic probelms with other markets as compared to the US. Right now these views find a very receptive audience as the pendulum has swung back toward the American way as our resiliency and flexibili...
by swaption
Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4324

Re: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holding

Roche also points out that Bogle’s decision to shun non-U.S. investing is somewhat ironic for one of the world’s most famous proponents of passive investing. “Bogle is obviously making a pretty active decision here by choosing only to invest in 50% of the world’s stock markets,” he adds. Finally, s...
by swaption
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4324

Re: Do we have too much house?

We stretched four years ago when we bought our house, which we love, and it definitely pushed us to increase our income This is far as I had to read. Tail should not wag dog. Would you not have otherwise pushed to increase your income? If the house looms large in your life, then that is at least pa...
by swaption
Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we have too much house?
Replies: 45
Views: 4524

Re: AA for a spoiled young buck

1. The American Century Growth, Janus Worldwide, and Vanguard Value Index were set up as gift trust funds for me when I was a lad. Between the 3, they have roughly $55k in unrealized gains. A large chunk of change for someone in the 25% tax bracket! I'm in favor of reducing the number of funds I ow...
by swaption
Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA for a spoiled young buck
Replies: 40
Views: 9132

Re: Girlfriend with a LOT of Student debt.

What I fear is going through the discussion to find out we are financially incompatible (in terms of how we see repaying it) and leaving her with the knowledge and weight that the debt and philosophy on repayment is what broke us up. :-( It is not your job to insulate her from reality. Let her feel...
by swaption
Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend with a LOT of Student debt.
Replies: 166
Views: 13773

Re: Girlfriend with a LOT of Student debt.

Problem is that attitudes toward finances and debt in particular are cultural in many ways. For example, what might seem normal for folks in say California might seem like execessive leverage in someplace like New England (kind of like attitudes toward plastic surgery). So my guess is that the actua...
by swaption
Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend with a LOT of Student debt.
Replies: 166
Views: 13773

Re: Isn't everybody here market timing, by definition?

It is market timing, in the sense that buy and hold assumes the market will go up long term. That seems to be a safe assumption, given the history of the stock market and global economy. Assumptions about the short term future are less certain. Exactly. Which is why the mantra about ignoring past p...
by swaption
Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't everybody here market timing, by definition?
Replies: 32
Views: 2162

Re: Mortgage as a savings vehicle

I'm not going to bother delving into all the details of some of the above calculations, simply because if they result in any answer other than 4.5%, they are wrong. Your mortgage rate is 4.5%. If you pay down $100k, that is your return (absent any tax considerations). Subtract what you can earn else...
by swaption
Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage as a savings vehicle
Replies: 18
Views: 2067

Re: Isn't everybody here market timing, by definition?

It is market timing, in the sense that buy and hold assumes the market will go up long term. That seems to be a safe assumption, given the history of the stock market and global economy. Assumptions about the short term future are less certain. Exactly. Which is why the mantra about ignoring past p...
by swaption
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't everybody here market timing, by definition?
Replies: 32
Views: 2162

Re: Not qualified for my job - what to do?

Don't hide your deficiencies. Problem here is that it is not clear what exactly is causing your stress. Is it your lack of qualifications? Is it your inability to do what is asked? Is it associated with social anxiety tied to discomfort relying on others? Is it your own expecations of yourself? Or p...
by swaption
Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not qualified for my job - what to do?
Replies: 42
Views: 5447

Re: Kazakhstan Closing The Barn Door - Cows Long Gone

If you believe markets are efficient, there are still cows in the barn. Just because oil futures prices have fallen does not mean they won't fall further, so it may still be rational for large oil exporters to think about hedging. If they change their oil hedging policy frequently based on recent c...
by swaption
Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kazakhstan Closing The Barn Door - Cows Long Gone
Replies: 3
Views: 952

Kazakhstan Closing The Barn Door - Cows Long Gone

Never ceases to amaze me the financial decision making process. Story below is about Kazakhstan now exploring with Goldman a program where they would hedge the price of oil. This should not be that tough a concept. The world is full of folks that buy insurance knowing full well that the optimal time...
by swaption
Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kazakhstan Closing The Barn Door - Cows Long Gone
Replies: 3
Views: 952

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

At the risk of suggesting another book, here it goes: The Inner Game of Stress My guess is she will find it very eye opening, and in some way it will be talking to her. I think the problem is one that is likely very common for doctors, or any high pressure career paths. The stress almost becomes par...
by swaption
Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 116
Views: 13972

Re: Would You Sell Or Continue Renting Out My Condo?

My initial inclination is to sell. I don't think the economics are so compelling. The only consideration that might sway me the other way is that you are currently renting. You are getting married, and while there are no rules, my guess is that you and your wife will be homeowners down the road at s...
by swaption
Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would You Sell Or Continue Renting Out My Condo?
Replies: 27
Views: 3556

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

do you agree with the Efficient Market Theory, that the market is always accurate in incorporating all present infortmation? EMT has nothing to do with whether the market is accurate. Basically, even if you allow for the existence of some intrinsic value for stocks, such a belief in no way contradi...
by swaption
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 2452

Re: A Backtest of the Dividend Growth Model, 1871-2010

Just yesterday, I was looking at pretty much this exact question. But instead of backtesting, I was looking at the Dividend Discount Model DDM from a purely theoretical viewpoint. To cut to the chase, I concluded that the DDM was useful for understanding how price, dividend, growth rate and expecte...
by swaption
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Backtest of the Dividend Growth Model, 1871-2010
Replies: 70
Views: 4935

Re: Should I Sue? [couch damaged in garage of rental]

This is just what I would do. But I'm a patsy. I don't regard garages, any garages, as "museum-quality storage." Garages shouldn't leak, but stuff happens. Does it leak enough to ruin a car, or a lawnmower, or bags of garden mulch, or things I usually put in garages? Is it leaking enough ...
by swaption
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Sue? [couch damaged in garage of rental]
Replies: 39
Views: 3420

Re: Do you regret buying your home?

greg24 wrote:I'm sure renters never regret their choices.


I don't understand this comment.
by swaption
Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you regret buying your home?
Replies: 82
Views: 7386

Re: Do you regret buying your home?

Bought in 2002, renovated in 2009. Overall very happy, great neighborhood, great town, great schools, very convenient for work. i do have the following regrets: - Should have bought more house in 2002. In hindsight, what an extra $100 - $150k could have bought would have been well worth it. But in h...
by swaption
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you regret buying your home?
Replies: 82
Views: 7386

Re: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)

I do not go because I can either be honest and offensive or disingenuous. Everyone has a right to make a living and I have no desire to be offensive. So I'm left with disingenuous, and I just can't do that either.
by swaption
Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)
Replies: 108
Views: 11905

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Browser Yes it is IMO. There is no anomaly about value stocks having higher returns based on cost of capital story. The only issue is are investors mispricing value stocks for behavioral reasons. I don't think that is correct. IMO the anomaly is really small growth stocks vastly overvalued by inves...
by swaption
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3198

Re: Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rat

It’s a 30-minute instrument if you’ve been wrong on interest rates and it’s a 30-year instrument if you’ve been right on interest rates.


Classic Buffett. Love this.
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rates
Replies: 77
Views: 9907

Re: Gambling versus Investing

OK,let's look at your definition: "The process of exposing oneself to some form of variable economic outcome with no commensurate expectation of incremental return." By that definition playing Blackjack while card counting (and using proper money management) is not gambling. It's that wha...
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2940

Re: Gambling versus Investing

Look at the posts on this thread, seems to me that most of you believe: investing = skillful gambling gambling = unskillful gambling However, your word-usage gets in the way of seeing the obvious. I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. I don't think investment in a diversified portfolio such as i...
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2940

Re: Gambling versus Investing

Look at the posts on this thread, seems to me that most of you believe: investing = skillful gambling gambling = unskillful gambling However, your word-usage gets in the way of seeing the obvious. I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. I don't think investment in a diversified portfolio such as i...
by swaption
Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2940

Re: Gambling versus Investing

In my mind, investing in a single stock has a significant element of gambling regardless of the level of research that goes into the investment decision. I would define gambling as follows: The process of exposing oneself to some form of variable economic outcome with no commensurate expectation of ...
by swaption
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling versus Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 2940

Re: Snow Blower

Another vote for Ariens. I had a single stage Honda, which I sold because I needed more. Hondas are top notch, but they price at a significant premium. My Ariens is 24", although I might have gotten bigger if I had more space in garage. Driveway sounds like it is about like yours. When I bought...
by swaption
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Snow Blower
Replies: 49
Views: 3250

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Let me ask the question differently, what evidence would convince you that someone could systematically beat the house and make money betting on horse racing or college football? The mechanism by which betting odds and lines are established is not all that different than the mechanism that sets the...
by swaption
Tue Oct 07, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 16637

Re: How to look at real estate ROI

I would like to get some opinions on this. This is what I was taught and it makes sense to me, but please poke holes in it. The idea is that you should calculate real estate return (appreciation, realized on sale of the property) pretty much the same way you would calculate return on any other inve...
by swaption
Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to look at real estate ROI
Replies: 21
Views: 2697

Re: confronting a coworker

This past April, I reserved off time around Christmas to avoid the situation from happening again, and both my fiancee and mother are working Christmas day, and would have our Christmas on the 24th. My coworker and I had a conversation the other day (and, admittedly I forgot I put the request on th...
by swaption
Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: confronting a coworker
Replies: 44
Views: 3718

Re: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market

"You might think this should be the reverse, that the stock market should go down when people are anxious. People are anxious because of (geopolitical unrest), because of inequality, and people are worried about being replaced by a computer. All these things are on people's minds." But be...
by swaption
Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market
Replies: 42
Views: 6195

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

I just want say that this may now officially be the most bazaar thread ever. I can't believe this started as what appeared to be budgeting for what most would agree are somewhat trivial amounts. But with each peel of the onion, we find a whole new onion, in fact an entire field of onions. Now we hav...
by swaption
Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 17475

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Wanted to touch on this part, our view on real estate, which I know most here don't share. Just one last thing, I don't really understand the above. How can you have any view on something like this? Granted finance is not science, but it certainly is not art. You can have a view on types of music, ...
by swaption
Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 17475

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Re. your assets, I'd be uncomfortable with such a large percentage tied up in real estate, but that's a discussion for another time. Perhaps you are expecting other gifts from your family over time, or a large inheritance, which makes this better... dunno. Good luck. Wanted to touch on this part, o...
by swaption
Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 17475

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Wow, I just don’t know where to start. Your story sounds like I would imagine many of the stories around me might be like. I live in an area where houses like you describe are not uncommon, where many have a second ski house, and as well the incomes at least on the surface would not necessarily appe...
by swaption
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 17475

Re: How to pay for Home Addition

the reason i think it may make financial sense to do this, is strictly b/c i bought 10 years ago, have some equity and it has appreciated. if i sold, i would do well, but when i bought a bigger house nearby i would simply be paying more for the next place. so my thinking was the 150k in appreciatio...
by swaption
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay for Home Addition
Replies: 23
Views: 2295

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

You did not make any "fundamental mistake", in fact you have done nothing wrong. I think for some reason you seem to be equating the traditional measures of winning/losing with some measure of self worth. As a result, life seems to have become a burden because of the constant reminders of ...
by swaption
Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 130
Views: 15158

Re: Home Affordability [check my calculations]

Cool, was reading the entire thread with interest, made no note of the date, and then saw the follow up. Like a nice little short story with an ending and everything. This might not have been my choice, in fact when in a similar position and older, we continued to rent in NYC, and then later bought ...
by swaption
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Affordability [check my calculations]
Replies: 85
Views: 5806
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