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by swaption
Tue May 12, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Somebody hit our parked car today!!
Replies: 21
Views: 3497

Re: Somebody hit our parked car today!!

Couple of months ago my neighbor's college aged son on our 10 mph cul de sac ran into my car head on. It was snowing and he was coming down the hill and acknowledged he lost control of his car (in the presence of a police officer witness). When I asked him why he was driving so fast (which was obvio...
by swaption
Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 5666

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982

Pop Quiz #2. Is the following accurate? If no, why? A buyback decreases the number of shares available, thereby increasing the "Earnings Per Share" and making each share more valuable . Well.. "it depends"... it assumes a certain level of market efficiency, and that the market w...
by swaption
Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 5666

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982

Pop Quiz #2. Is the following accurate? If no, why?

JoMoney wrote:A buyback decreases the number of shares available, thereby increasing the "Earnings Per Share" and making each share more valuable.
by swaption
Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting While in 15% Bracket?
Replies: 21
Views: 1696

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting While in 15% Bracket?

I've done some tax gain harvesting in my kids UTMA accounts while in the 15% tax bracket. One thing to be aware of is state taxes. California, for instance, doesn't give you the capital gains 0% rate. So while the kids were able to sell stock free of federal taxes they did owe 6% state tax. I do th...
by swaption
Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4160

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

She is on a fairly new MVNO (Puppy Wireless) and pays $14.95/mo. for 350 messages, 350 texts and 35MB of data per month. FYI, we shut our data off (phone setting) unless we need it for a specific purpose such as looking up an address. This keeps cost down considerably but does limit functionality o...
by swaption
Fri Apr 17, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4160

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

Original poster here. Now have the LG Ultimate 2 (L41C) up and running on Tracfone, a 4.5" phone that gets great reviews. Bought on Amazon for $129.99 and includes 1200 minutes, 1200 texts, and 1.2 GB data for 1 year of service. Given my usage requirements, this should be enough. Uses the Veriz...
by swaption
Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you invest your house down payment?
Replies: 22
Views: 1965

Re: Would you invest your house down payment?

It's good to take the risk survey. How would you feel if the value of VSMGX declines by 50% within months of your initial purchase? Do you have nerves of steel to wait two years to wait for the value to come back or do you panic and sell? If VSMGX fell by 50% within months, then we would all be in ...
by swaption
Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing
Replies: 65
Views: 4447

Re: International Investing

This is a completely unsophisticated observation that has no figures whatsoever to back it up. I just got back from a vacation to New Zealand and Australia. While there I read the business and real estate sections of the local papers, kept an eye out for the amount of new commercial construction un...
by swaption
Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4160

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

+ 1 on the Moto G Actually, i would put -1 for the Moto G as it does not support 4G LTE. The phone to get now is the successor, the Moto E. Have decided to take advantage of my 15 day return policy for my above referenced LG and ordered a $99 Moto E from HSN. It includes 1200 minutes. When I get it...
by swaption
Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4160

Re: Inexpensive Smartphone

Now having poked around a bit, I see the Moto E and LG Ultimate II look to be slightly better phones that can be had very inexpensively online, and also an Alcatel phone. I think all use the Verizon network, at least the Moto E does, which was important for me (T-Mobile and Sprint make the phone a b...
by swaption
Mon Apr 13, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive Smartphone
Replies: 46
Views: 4160

Inexpensive Smartphone

This may not be new news to many. For better or for worse I am all in on the expensive smartphone route. Mine is a Verizon family with 3 iPhones. I am the only one without an iphone, but I have an iPad with data capability. Had gone the prepaid route in the past, but for a number of reasons landed b...
by swaption
Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay Area
Replies: 117
Views: 11497

Re: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay A

Thank you for the wonderful post. I read every line of it too. Seems we're converging to the same ballpark. Lucky for you France is a great country to retire to ! Nice, St. Tropez, Antibes are wonderful towns. I wouldn't feel particularly good about freeloading on the healthcare over there, having ...
by swaption
Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3375

Re: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?

Corporate bonds have two stages of credit risk. There's credit downgrade risk and credit default risk...I capture a credit downgrade risk premium by using the Vanguard High Yield Corporate Bond fund. Couple of things. Not sure I am a fan of the distinction between downgrade and default risk. It's a...
by swaption
Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay Area
Replies: 117
Views: 11497

Re: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay A

Its a no-win race for the common company man. What ever gave you the impression that a common company man would expect to live in a place like San Francisco, in a $1.5 million home, support 12 years of private school, and 4 years at a high end private university? There is a reason why people attemp...
by swaption
Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best albums of 2015
Replies: 72
Views: 7089

Re: Best albums of 2015

I don't generally listen to music not recorded in the past 5 years. I guess your view is that watches hold their value better than music... Try as I might, I can't get away from all of my old music. Would still go out of my way to see Neil Young in just about any of his formats, or Led Zeppelin for...
by swaption
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 227
Views: 18518

Re: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advis

I retitled the thread. OP - if you disagree, just edit the Subject: line in Post #1. For the purposes of this discussion, "financial advisor" refers to an Investment adviser . OP? He left the building some time ago when he realized he couldn't sell something. Paul Went back and read his o...
by swaption
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 24
Views: 2162

Re: Is this Investing or Speculating?

What everyone knows isn't worth knowing. I believe this is the hardest lesson for active investors to learn. Rick Ferri Love this quote, from Bernard Baruch. And it is a bet, based on the assumption that your investment premise is not much more developed than what you presented. Unfortunately, that...
by swaption
Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 74% of car loans are subprime.
Replies: 29
Views: 2089

Re: 74% of car loans are subprime.

Just heard today that Americans owe $783 billion on their cars, 74% of which is in subprime loans. So, that means that at least 74% of those with a car payment should have bought a cheaper car. Wow. This is sad people. Anyone agree? Hoosier PS. My source was a radio show, don't know where they got ...
by swaption
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

You don't get to use the 10 year yield for a rolling ladder I admit I don't use rolling ladders, I use funds so perhaps I'm in error there. Care to explain why not? Because the only bonds in a ladder that will have a current yield equal to the 10 year yield of 0.43% will only be that portion of the...
by swaption
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I mean, with real bond yields pretty much at 0 right now Average duration on Bogleheads seems to be around five years or so. Even a rolling ladder of 10yr TIPS is yielding more than zero, sure it's not huge but it's 0.43%. For a rolling ladder the duration would be around five years so the 5yr TIPS...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I thought maybe one last attempt. Perhaps worst case there might be others following along that might learn something. It's been a long discussion, the fact that there even was one surprised me. *shrug* It's possible I'm being an idiot, I'll go off and do some more reading. Who knows, it wouldn't b...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to retire in New England?
Replies: 101
Views: 8286

Re: Where to retire in New England?

I’ll share a story. Last summer was having cocktails in one of the most scenic spots in Big Sur, absolute perfection. Got to talking with our waitress. As it turned out, she moved out there from New England, with most of her time spent in Maine. Now living on a farm somewhere, with her kids going to...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Johno wrote:There comes a time to give up. :D


No doubt :D

I thought maybe one last attempt. Perhaps worst case there might be others following along that might learn something.
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I’m getting the sense there is something very fundamental about fixed income that you are not seeing, so perhaps this is a bit of a tutorial. I understand what you're saying, I actually have quite a bit of familiarity with present value calculations and figuring the current value of individual bond...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Clearly_Irrational, I’ll give one last go at it. I’m getting the sense there is something very fundamental about fixed income that you are not seeing, so perhaps this is a bit of a tutorial. Let’s start with what we know, or what I assume we should know. What would the return be if we took a lump su...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does market timing make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 1626

Re: When does market timing make sense?

the risk of doing nothing is only 90 days of no-growth in cash holdings, I don't see the harm. What if the market goes up 10%, then you have lost 10%. Seems like a risk to me. Problem is many will often view risk in asymmetric terms. A few years ago, when everyone was still stung by the financial c...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

It is beyond "not bad", it is obvious. So, in essence you're saying that unlike the stock market we can predict ahead of time what our returns will be with a high level of success? That seems unlikely or the standard modality for bonds would be market timing rather than buy and hold. Pred...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

You're suggesting though that we use a predictive method by looking at starting year interest rates. That's not necessarily a bad approach if we think that current rates are predictive of future returns. It is beyond "not bad", it is obvious. There are many things being written that are o...
by swaption
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Where's] a Family to Live in New York?
Replies: 22
Views: 2845

Re: [Where's] a Family to Live in New York?

I live in the area, so pretty familiar with all of this. I think the River Towns like Hastings and Irvington are good suggestions. Don't think Bronxville will give you great bang for your buck as many will pay a premium for proximity to the city. Might throw Pleasantville in there as a consideration...
by swaption
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Does anyone know how much of an effect the internet has had on investment returns? Yeah, it makes it easier to discuss. Previously we had to use those other productivity enhancing mechanisms like the telephone. But I'm not really kidding. The intenet falls into that very broad categroy of productiv...
by swaption
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife tired of saving...
Replies: 203
Views: 20672

Re: Wife tired of saving...

I'm reminded of the quote from the monks in the Michael Lewis story about Greece: the wise man accepts, the fool insists It appears to me there there may be numerous topics (taxes, college education, etc.) where you may be erring on the side of insisting. By no means would I suggest to totally submi...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

And PE based on forward earnings expectations implies a neighborhood of 5% real return. If we think current price levels are high, then PE1 is at it's least predictive and so probably isn't the best choice. If you mean you're using analysts future earnings estimates to try and predict performance t...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Does anyone know how much of an effect the internet has had on investment returns? Yeah, it makes it easier to discuss. Previously we had to use those other productivity enhancing mechanisms like the telephone. But I'm not really kidding. The intenet falls into that very broad categroy of productiv...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Current PE10 levels suggest 3.64% real returns for stocks starting at the current price level. And PE based on forward earnings expectations implies a neighborhood of 5% real return. Not intended to open up THIS debate, but clearly there are schools of thought that believe some form of those PE num...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24545

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Wow, surprised to see the piling on to bash Bernstein. I think it is important to draw a distinction here between a prediction and expectations. Sounds like many are speaking about the futility of predictions. But what is wrong with expectations? Certainly should help with planning, I mean, with rea...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 22647

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

With all this discussion, you'd think this was about the greatest unsolved economic problem of all time! The fields of economics and finance have already arrived at solid definitions providing a useful framework for organizing our economic and financial lives, from the global affairs of nations to ...
by swaption
Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 22647

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

Simple summary: Last year, David earns $100k, spends $50k on consumption. The remaining $50k is used to pay down a loan (could be a mortgage, credit card debt, take your pick, any loan). If someone asks David how much he saved last year, what is his answer? The floor is open for anyone that thinks t...
by swaption
Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?
Replies: 14
Views: 902

Re: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video form

Thanks for this thread. I have a new camera, the Sony Alpha 6000, and one of the benefits is that it is supposed to be at least somewhat passable as a subsitute for a camcorder. Of course like everything, it comes with myriad options and one of them is the video format. There are the formats that se...
by swaption
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 22647

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

Against my better judgement... I could go on and on about GAAP, the meaning of accounting for purchases, depreciation, topics like (dare I say it) whether a house is an investment, and all sorts of tedium (is that a word) along the lines of what is written above. But absolutely none if it is relevan...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 22001

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

I have also done the math as well and compared the price of a lot of items between other stores including Safeway, Target, Wal-Mart, and Costco. I went as far as taking snapshots of price labels with my cell phone, and comparing them later at home. The other stores weren't even close. On things lik...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 22001

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

I have also done the math as well and compared the price of a lot of items between other stores including Safeway, Target, Wal-Mart, and Costco. I went as far as taking snapshots of price labels with my cell phone, and comparing them later at home. The other stores weren't even close. On things lik...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 22647

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

I will only offer another statement that is a universal truth. Principal payments on any form of debt increases net worth. Except you probably used your own cash/assets to offset debts, so your net worth (assets - liabilities) is unchanged. Although that transfer does impact future net worth as you...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 22647

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

I will not respond, as that implies some form of debate, and there is no debate here. I will only offer another statement that is a universal truth. Principal payments on any form of debt increases net worth. When I make the statement above, i do not mean the process of wrting of the check to transf...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 22647

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

I cannot believe this thread just goes on. To some extent, this seems to be the battle of those that know they are correct trying to convince those that think they are correct. My lone contribution here is to eliminate the notion of the house in the equation. Is paying down prioncipal of any debt to...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 22001

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

What I get a COSTCO are: 6. [Sometimes} tuna fish (Chicken of the Sea Chunk light] I suggest trying the Kirkland Signature Brand of albacore tuna. It is more expensive, but much better. Jeff I think this Kirkland brand may be new. I saw it (and that it was more expensive) on my last trip. Or, perha...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Costco/AmEx relationship ending. New Costco MasterCard?
Replies: 85
Views: 258421

Re: Costco/AmEx relationship ending. New Costco MasterCard?

What is a good Citi card to sign up for to use at Costco and other places? The Citi Double Cash is great but I think that card is avaiable as a MC. To be sure that a card can be used at Costco I guess that you would have to wait until Costco comes up with information regarding their co-branded Citi...
by swaption
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 42
Views: 3426

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

If you are doing this, I'm hoping all of you are doing it with your car outside, or the garage door open, and the windows open so as not to have carbon monoxide build up. It obviously builds up in the garage--and you're walk into a room full of it. If you do that every morning it's not good for you...
by swaption
Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 233
Views: 22784

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

Interesting. While I'm an advocate of an international allocation, I was not particularly a fan of Mr. Ferri's blog article and I'm not sure I'm a fan of this. As far as I can tell, the rationale provided is as follows: International exposure provides valuable diversification benefits. Vanguard eval...
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 22001

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

Nutella - 66 oz as compared to 13 oz in store, about $12 vs $5
My go to place for trimmed St. Louis cut ribs
My $50 Bolle ski helmet
Greek yogurt
Big containers of mixed nuts
Kirkland organic olive oil
Generic Claritin, and other generics
Cliff Bars
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return
Replies: 29
Views: 3241

Re: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return

...You will need to file an amended return if in fact a return was filed under your name... ...Apparently, this request only spits out the original return that was filed, not the subsequent amendments... Is it standard IRS procedure to do an actual amended return (1040X)? An amended return would se...

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