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Re: CFA June 2014 results

I am a software engineer by profession and knew nothing of finance before starting to study for the exam. This exam seemed like a good challenge and I had been wanting to learn more about the field anyway. So I decided back in January to write it. In hindsight, this exam was extremely tough for me ...
by swaption
Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA June 2014 results
Replies: 14
Views: 1165

Re: How many families use 529 plans?

Jack Bogle isn't against 529's, he just doesn't like having his money tied up them. I feel the same way. There are a lot of factors to consider when deciding to invest in a 529: Are you fully funding retirement? Do you get a state tax credit? Do you want to retire early? How much will you save with...
by swaption
Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many families use 529 plans?
Replies: 51
Views: 2388

Re: How many families use 529 plans?

I don't invest in a 529 and neither does Jack Bogle. I think the article could mislead a lot of parents to invest in a 529 before fully funding retirement I'm confused here, what is the relevance of the reference to Jack Bogle? Hear what you say about investing in a 529 before fully funding retirem...
by swaption
Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many families use 529 plans?
Replies: 51
Views: 2388

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Who said the loss occurred in only ONE 20-year or 30-year period? The data presented are for the worst-case scenario: the worst of these periods. I seriously doubt that there was only a single period of 20-30 years within the 112 years in which there was a loss in real terms. It is good to use accu...
by swaption
Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 43
Views: 4015

Re: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?

When you are renting a home the investment-owner does not perform the maintenance, pay the taxes insurance etc. as charitable acts to your benefit. Those costs are part of the rent. Real estate has significant costs period and you can't escape them by renting or hold them up to "prove" th...
by swaption
Wed Jul 30, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 3900

Re: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?

Can distill this down to it's simplest form: The purchase of a house involves an allocation of capital that entails risk and has a variable outcome in terms of net worth, so it can be considered an investment. There is so much nonsense written above that it's not worth going into detail. The biggest...
by swaption
Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 3900

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

+1 Often, "risk aversion" isn't really aversion to risk in general. It's aversion to certain kinds of risks (in particular, relatively short-term stock market volatility). Indeed. In the most commonly mis-understood question when an advisor or a self-help book/website asks the investor: W...
by swaption
Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 2336

Re: Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula"

I think it is a mistake to treat Greenblatt's book in this manner. This is not all that different than the profitability factor that is getting so much attention. I guess the provocative title makes Greenblatt an easy target. This all may be simple, but not all that different than tilting to small o...
by swaption
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula"
Replies: 22
Views: 5342

Re: Options/guidance for a lazy person to be fit

There are no options for a lazy person to be fit. First thing is you need to convince yourself that you're not a lazy person. Once you do that, you'll apply the same standards to yourself as you would other people. Discipline is not easy for others either. But you will likely find out is that the ch...
by swaption
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Options/guidance for a lazy person to be fit
Replies: 79
Views: 5525

Re: Caught in the IRS fraud mess

Final final I received a letter from the IRS to let me know that my fraud complaint was upheld (since they already sent the refund I kind of figured) and that there was nothing I needed to do but that from now on my returns will be marked as previously defrauded and will get extra security checking...
by swaption
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Caught in the IRS fraud mess
Replies: 24
Views: 5864

Re: Who else hates choosing a car?

Understand where you are coming from. When we moved to the suburbs, I drove a 1991 Camry for a while, mostly used to go back and forth to train station. But then I went to a corporate golf outing, and when my wife suggested I might consider renting a car, I realized my existing car had gotten a bit ...
by swaption
Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who else hates choosing a car?
Replies: 75
Views: 6422

Re: Economics 101

- the 2008 Crash was unique since the 1930s in that a US housing related bubble blew, and took out major financial institutions with it (Lehman, Fannie and Freddie, AIG, RBS, HBOS etc), and *that* either caused the recession, or what would have made a normal recession into something as bad as anyth...
by swaption
Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Learning about] Economics 101
Replies: 37
Views: 2740

Re: Economics 101

I enjoyed the following: http://www.amazon.com/Whos-Afraid-Adam-Smith-Market/dp/0471720909 Author is not an economist, but spent his career as an editor of economics text books. Gives somewhat of a broad history of economics, along with enough detail regarding the various theories and schools of tho...
by swaption
Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Learning about] Economics 101
Replies: 37
Views: 2740

Re: Smokers

Just a note about a recent purchase of a smoker. Bought the Masterbuilt wide gas smoker. Absolutely one of the best values I have ever made. This smoker is so easy and handles lots of food. Bought on sale at Basspro. Nice to hear this. I have had a Cookshack electric smoker for close to a decade. J...
by swaption
Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smokers [for cooking]
Replies: 47
Views: 4520

Re: Smokers [for cooking]

See some very good things about the Pit Barrel Cooker: http://www.amazon.com/Pit-Barrel-Cooker-Co-Package/dp/B00BQMDZYY Like I mentioned above, been very happy with my electric Cookshack, and would likely consider a propane smoker the next time around. I had previously owned a Weber, but looks like ...
by swaption
Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smokers [for cooking]
Replies: 47
Views: 4520

Re: Buying a Home in a Low-Interest Environment-The Hidden R

Hard to argue for any worse of an interest rate cycle than what we saw in the 70's. What happened to housing prices then? For that matter, I'm sure you can go back and find several other adverse interest rate cycles, and see the same outcome. Granted, past performance may not necessarily be indicati...
by swaption
Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home in a Low-Interest Environment-The Hidden Risk
Replies: 18
Views: 1753

Re: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble

I think the following sums up his perspective quite well: The current implied ERP of 4.99% is well above the historic average and median and it clearly is much higher than the 2.05% that prevailed at the end of 1999. Keep in mind that this is not the simplified ERP from the Fed model, but one derive...
by swaption
Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
Replies: 24
Views: 3587

Re: Smokers

Just a note about a recent purchase of a smoker. Bought the Masterbuilt wide gas smoker. Absolutely one of the best values I have ever made. This smoker is so easy and handles lots of food. Bought on sale at Basspro. Nice to hear this. I have had a Cookshack electric smoker for close to a decade. J...
by swaption
Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smokers [for cooking]
Replies: 47
Views: 4520

Re: Sell stocks now to buy house in 2 years?

I have a friend who wants to buy a house in about two years. It'll likely be a cash deal for the house, and most of the funds are currently in index funds at Vanguard in a taxable account which has fairly substantial unrealized long term capital gains. Should she: 1. Sell enough equities now to cov...
by swaption
Mon Jun 02, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell stocks now to buy house in 2 years?
Replies: 10
Views: 944

Re: 2014 US Open Tennis Ticket Sale

I would go for a grounds pass at some point over the Labor Day weekend. Relatively cost effective, and you can even stay into the evening session to watch in Louis Armstorng,the Grandstand, or even some of the outer courts now have lights. Better to be on the early side of the tourney since they wil...
by swaption
Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2014 US Open Tennis Ticket Sale
Replies: 6
Views: 530

Re: San Francisco Restaurant Recommendations

R&G Lounge- Crab was a bit much... Wish I had someone to share it with. However it was quite tasty. Pizzaria Delfina - Great Pizza, wine, and gelato Fog City: Great food; Great portion sizes; Quite Unique Tadich Grill: cioppino- Was very good, however wish I would have gotten the oyster rockafe...
by swaption
Sat May 24, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco Restaurant Recommendations
Replies: 44
Views: 2716

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

Swaption No idea really what you are asking or even debating All I've pointed it is possible explanations for the wider margins and explain why one should not be worried about it as many have been stating. Whether they stay that way or not is likely embedded in prices already, and I cannot forecast...
by swaption
Sat May 24, 2014 8:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2236

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

Should textile industry investors have been concerned about sustainability when companies started to increased margins due to moving manufacturing off shore to lower cost countries?
by swaption
Fri May 23, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2236

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

swaption Like I said, we'll disagree Simple example is companies shifting headquarters from one country to another can lower tax rates, nothing else changed in terms of prices they can charge. They simply get same gross profit but higher net profit and they choose to keep that instead of perhaps tr...
by swaption
Fri May 23, 2014 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2236

Re: declining job due to travel

The reason for the travel is two-fold. One of them is because the work I'd be doing requires involvement of the team in China. The work itself has a global flavor (we're a global company) but China focused. Face time with them is a requirement. Second, my new manager would be IN China as he's an ex...
by swaption
Fri May 23, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: declining job due to travel
Replies: 92
Views: 9191

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

swaption If you have lower tax rates you get higher AT profits than if you have higher tax rates. The lower tax rates overseas are contributing to the wider margins if you have lower interest costs, all else equal your profit margins are wider And of course if rates rise their interest income will ...
by swaption
Fri May 23, 2014 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2236

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

Larry, I very much appreciate your contribution on these various topics, but I strongly disagree with much of what you wrote this time around: First, as the U.S. share of the global economy shrinks, more and more of the profits of U.S. companies are coming from overseas, where corporate tax rates ar...
by swaption
Fri May 23, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2236

Re: White collar crime book recommendations?

lws6772 wrote:I would also suggest some of the books by Michael Lewis, such as "The Big Short" and "Boomerang".


Crime?
by swaption
Thu May 22, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: White collar crime book recommendations?
Replies: 21
Views: 1088

Re: Restaurants in New York City?

Go onto the Chowhound Forums and specifically the Manhattan Board. Many New Yorkers participate here, giving suggestions to fellow New Yorkers and tourists alike. The restaurant suggestions will run the spectrum from modest to snobby but you will eat well if you follow the suggestions. Here are som...
by swaption
Wed May 21, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurants in New York City?
Replies: 42
Views: 2677

Re: Restaurants in New York City?

Here are some spots that I enjoy. Chodangol (Fresh made Korean tofu soups and stews) Westville (casual farm to table) Meatball shop (and try the ice cream sandwiches) Gennaros (Italian) Red farm (new Chinese) Also, yelp is highly utilized in NYC and should help you narrow down the options too. Inst...
by swaption
Wed May 21, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurants in New York City?
Replies: 42
Views: 2677

Re: White collar crime book recommendations?

The Billionaire's Apprentice was outstanding
by swaption
Wed May 21, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: White collar crime book recommendations?
Replies: 21
Views: 1088

Re: How to weather the upcoming bond crash in my 401k

Sorry, can't help it. Just amazing how wrong the "concensus" can be. As I see the 10 year down to about 2.48%, reminded of this post from early January when it was roughly 0.50% above the current level. Just step away from the keyboard folks and leave your portfolio alone.
by swaption
Thu May 15, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to weather the upcoming bond crash in my 401k
Replies: 86
Views: 7164

NY/NJ Area Financial Advisor?

Have an adult family member going through some life changes. Ultimately, the result will be that she will need to be managing her own finances. I don't think it is reasonable or wise to go this alone in her case, so looking for advisor recommendations for northern NJ or NYC. Would be better to have ...
by swaption
Thu May 15, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NY/NJ Area Financial Advisor?
Replies: 0
Views: 142

Re: True cost of owning a house

[...]First off, apologies for piling on, I'll make you a sandwich if you want. But in terms of the original analysis, I'll stick by what has been written. i know what the original poster was trying to do, but that doesn't make it valid or even possible. There simply is no such thing as return from ...
by swaption
Wed Apr 30, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of owning a house
Replies: 47
Views: 3514

Re: True cost of owning a house

Please continue and complete the analysis. In other words, what figure would/should OP have come up with for the hypothetical renting scenario that would be comparable to the 36.8% you derived above? You should reread my original post. There is no comparable rent analysis. The relevant comparison i...
by swaption
Wed Apr 30, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of owning a house
Replies: 47
Views: 3514

Re: True cost of owning a house

Please continue and complete the analysis. In other words, what figure would/should OP have come up with for the hypothetical renting scenario that would be comparable to the 36.8% you derived above? You should reread my original post. There is no comparable rent analysis. The relevant comparison i...
by swaption
Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of owning a house
Replies: 47
Views: 3514

Re: True cost of owning a house

Please continue and complete the analysis. In other words, what figure would/should OP have come up with for the hypothetical renting scenario that would be comparable to the 36.8% you derived above? You should reread my original post. There is no comparable rent analysis. The relevant comparison i...
by swaption
Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of owning a house
Replies: 47
Views: 3514

Re: True cost of owning a house

Going to make what looks quite complicated much easier: - start with your down payment of $82k and end with your gross proceeds after mortgage payoff of roughly $180k - subtract all those things you have minus signs in front of from your proceeds - also subtract any mortgage principal payments you ...
by swaption
Wed Apr 30, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of owning a house
Replies: 47
Views: 3514

Re: San Francisco Restaurant Recommendations

poker27 wrote:Wayfare tavern in the financial district was one of my favorite meals in 2013. We got to sit at the 'bar' and watch the cooks prepare the dishes. With drinks I think the bill was about 250 for two.


Yeah, that's the Tyler Florence restaurant we went to that had the great fried chicken.
by swaption
Wed Apr 30, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco Restaurant Recommendations
Replies: 44
Views: 2716

Re: San Francisco Restaurant Recommendations

Not a local, but was there last summer. R&G Lounge in Chinatown, the salt and pepper crab is special. Ferry Terminal Market was great, but definitely go when they have the farmers market. The food stands are great. Fired chicken at Tyler Florence's restaurant was also very good. Food definitely ...
by swaption
Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco Restaurant Recommendations
Replies: 44
Views: 2716

Re: True cost of owning a house

Going to make what looks quite complicated much easier: - start with your down payment of $82k and end with your gross proceeds after mortgage payoff of roughly $180k - subtract all those things you have minus signs in front of from your proceeds - also subtract any mortgage principal payments you m...
by swaption
Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True cost of owning a house
Replies: 47
Views: 3514

Re: Is it a bad move to buy a home now?

Parents tend to have a way with things. I can picture you, proud with your potential purchase and exposed. I'm sure the word "appalled" shot through you like a knife. Quite frankly, you should be appalled at their insensitivity. If their goal was to make you feel stupid, then apparently th...
by swaption
Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it a bad move to buy a home now?
Replies: 34
Views: 7390

Re: Reverse Mortgage "Shocker" for Inheritors

If the heirs are interested they have 30 days in which to say so. The house will be appraised at the lender's expense. The heirs can buy it for the lesser of: The mortgage balance (which will still increase as interest accrues prior to closing); or 95% of the appraised value of the home. The heirs ...
by swaption
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Mortgage "Shocker" for Inheritors
Replies: 7
Views: 1887

Re: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies

Animal House....seriously
by swaption
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies
Replies: 49
Views: 3962

Re: Just had offer accepted on a house! (Advice pls!)

Assuming your accepted offer is pending inspection - hire a good inspector and have him nitpick the hell out of everything and attach a high dollar amount to every fix. Then use that info to pound the sellers into an even lower price. Once they are informed of defects, make sure you tell them they ...
by swaption
Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just had offer accepted on a house! (Advice pls!)
Replies: 29
Views: 2497

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

A couple of things. If it really is a risk story then it may come and go, but will likely be there often enough. If it is not a risk story then it may well go away forever. If it really is a risk story it may not show well in simple risk metrics like standard deviation. But the risk may still be th...
by swaption
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 3035

Shiller on Housing Market

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-momentum-housing-stocks-shiller-141805700.html Shiller cautioned that he didn't want to be an alarmist-saying home prices are "kind of at a normal level" right now. He added: "My son just bought a house. I told him, 'Fine.'" As for housing pric...
by swaption
Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Housing Market
Replies: 0
Views: 498

Re: 31 yr old w/ $500k @ EdwardJones

carlweezer wrote:I feel sick that I neglected taking responsibility for making these decisions and not keeping a better eye on the excess charges.


Most of us have had this sickness. Perhaps the only way to build up immunity. Kind of like chicken pox, much better if you get it when you are young.
by swaption
Fri Apr 04, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 31 yr old w/ $500k @ EdwardJones
Replies: 52
Views: 9319

Re: Accept Job Offer from Company that Filed for Bankruptcy?

I think you really need to do your diligence on the company, but I would not immediately dismiss the opportunity. At your age, i wouldn't get too caught up in numbers of years experience, etc. The most important thing is putting yourself in a position to succeed doing what you want to do. You have t...
by swaption
Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accept Job Offer from Company that Filed for Bankruptcy?
Replies: 29
Views: 2591

Re: Being older/younger in class -- benefits, issues?

I'll share my personal experience, understanding that this is a sample of one, but being mindful this is in the spectrum of potential outcomes. My oldest daughter is a November birthday. She is also on the small side and not very outgoing. When she was pre-k age we considered holding her back, but u...
by swaption
Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Being older/younger in class -- benefits, issues?
Replies: 98
Views: 5978
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