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Re: Best albums of 2015

I don't generally listen to music not recorded in the past 5 years. I guess your view is that watches hold their value better than music... Try as I might, I can't get away from all of my old music. Would still go out of my way to see Neil Young in just about any of his formats, or Led Zeppelin for...
by swaption
Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best albums of 2015
Replies: 46
Views: 2911

Re: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advis

I retitled the thread. OP - if you disagree, just edit the Subject: line in Post #1. For the purposes of this discussion, "financial advisor" refers to an Investment adviser . OP? He left the building some time ago when he realized he couldn't sell something. Paul Went back and read his o...
by swaption
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15388

Re: Is this Investing or Speculating?

What everyone knows isn't worth knowing. I believe this is the hardest lesson for active investors to learn. Rick Ferri Love this quote, from Bernard Baruch. And it is a bet, based on the assumption that your investment premise is not much more developed than what you presented. Unfortunately, that...
by swaption
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 24
Views: 1981

Re: 74% of car loans are subprime.

Just heard today that Americans owe $783 billion on their cars, 74% of which is in subprime loans. So, that means that at least 74% of those with a car payment should have bought a cheaper car. Wow. This is sad people. Anyone agree? Hoosier PS. My source was a radio show, don't know where they got ...
by swaption
Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 74% of car loans are subprime.
Replies: 29
Views: 1997

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

You don't get to use the 10 year yield for a rolling ladder I admit I don't use rolling ladders, I use funds so perhaps I'm in error there. Care to explain why not? Because the only bonds in a ladder that will have a current yield equal to the 10 year yield of 0.43% will only be that portion of the...
by swaption
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I mean, with real bond yields pretty much at 0 right now Average duration on Bogleheads seems to be around five years or so. Even a rolling ladder of 10yr TIPS is yielding more than zero, sure it's not huge but it's 0.43%. For a rolling ladder the duration would be around five years so the 5yr TIPS...
by swaption
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I thought maybe one last attempt. Perhaps worst case there might be others following along that might learn something. It's been a long discussion, the fact that there even was one surprised me. *shrug* It's possible I'm being an idiot, I'll go off and do some more reading. Who knows, it wouldn't b...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Where to retire in New England?

I’ll share a story. Last summer was having cocktails in one of the most scenic spots in Big Sur, absolute perfection. Got to talking with our waitress. As it turned out, she moved out there from New England, with most of her time spent in Maine. Now living on a farm somewhere, with her kids going to...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to retire in New England?
Replies: 101
Views: 7476

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Johno wrote:There comes a time to give up. :D


No doubt :D

I thought maybe one last attempt. Perhaps worst case there might be others following along that might learn something.
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I’m getting the sense there is something very fundamental about fixed income that you are not seeing, so perhaps this is a bit of a tutorial. I understand what you're saying, I actually have quite a bit of familiarity with present value calculations and figuring the current value of individual bond...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Clearly_Irrational, I’ll give one last go at it. I’m getting the sense there is something very fundamental about fixed income that you are not seeing, so perhaps this is a bit of a tutorial. Let’s start with what we know, or what I assume we should know. What would the return be if we took a lump su...
by swaption
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: When does market timing make sense?

the risk of doing nothing is only 90 days of no-growth in cash holdings, I don't see the harm. What if the market goes up 10%, then you have lost 10%. Seems like a risk to me. Problem is many will often view risk in asymmetric terms. A few years ago, when everyone was still stung by the financial c...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does market timing make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 1429

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

It is beyond "not bad", it is obvious. So, in essence you're saying that unlike the stock market we can predict ahead of time what our returns will be with a high level of success? That seems unlikely or the standard modality for bonds would be market timing rather than buy and hold. Pred...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

You're suggesting though that we use a predictive method by looking at starting year interest rates. That's not necessarily a bad approach if we think that current rates are predictive of future returns. It is beyond "not bad", it is obvious. There are many things being written that are o...
by swaption
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: [Where's] a Family to Live in New York?

I live in the area, so pretty familiar with all of this. I think the River Towns like Hastings and Irvington are good suggestions. Don't think Bronxville will give you great bang for your buck as many will pay a premium for proximity to the city. Might throw Pleasantville in there as a consideration...
by swaption
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Where's] a Family to Live in New York?
Replies: 23
Views: 2690

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Does anyone know how much of an effect the internet has had on investment returns? Yeah, it makes it easier to discuss. Previously we had to use those other productivity enhancing mechanisms like the telephone. But I'm not really kidding. The intenet falls into that very broad categroy of productiv...
by swaption
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Wife tired of saving...

I'm reminded of the quote from the monks in the Michael Lewis story about Greece: the wise man accepts, the fool insists It appears to me there there may be numerous topics (taxes, college education, etc.) where you may be erring on the side of insisting. By no means would I suggest to totally submi...
by swaption
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife tired of saving...
Replies: 203
Views: 19176

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

And PE based on forward earnings expectations implies a neighborhood of 5% real return. If we think current price levels are high, then PE1 is at it's least predictive and so probably isn't the best choice. If you mean you're using analysts future earnings estimates to try and predict performance t...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Does anyone know how much of an effect the internet has had on investment returns? Yeah, it makes it easier to discuss. Previously we had to use those other productivity enhancing mechanisms like the telephone. But I'm not really kidding. The intenet falls into that very broad categroy of productiv...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Current PE10 levels suggest 3.64% real returns for stocks starting at the current price level. And PE based on forward earnings expectations implies a neighborhood of 5% real return. Not intended to open up THIS debate, but clearly there are schools of thought that believe some form of those PE num...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Wow, surprised to see the piling on to bash Bernstein. I think it is important to draw a distinction here between a prediction and expectations. Sounds like many are speaking about the futility of predictions. But what is wrong with expectations? Certainly should help with planning, I mean, with rea...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22797

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

With all this discussion, you'd think this was about the greatest unsolved economic problem of all time! The fields of economics and finance have already arrived at solid definitions providing a useful framework for organizing our economic and financial lives, from the global affairs of nations to ...
by swaption
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 20084

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

Simple summary: Last year, David earns $100k, spends $50k on consumption. The remaining $50k is used to pay down a loan (could be a mortgage, credit card debt, take your pick, any loan). If someone asks David how much he saved last year, what is his answer? The floor is open for anyone that thinks t...
by swaption
Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 20084

Re: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video form

Thanks for this thread. I have a new camera, the Sony Alpha 6000, and one of the benefits is that it is supposed to be at least somewhat passable as a subsitute for a camcorder. Of course like everything, it comes with myriad options and one of them is the video format. There are the formats that se...
by swaption
Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?
Replies: 14
Views: 795

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

Against my better judgement... I could go on and on about GAAP, the meaning of accounting for purchases, depreciation, topics like (dare I say it) whether a house is an investment, and all sorts of tedium (is that a word) along the lines of what is written above. But absolutely none if it is relevan...
by swaption
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 20084

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

I have also done the math as well and compared the price of a lot of items between other stores including Safeway, Target, Wal-Mart, and Costco. I went as far as taking snapshots of price labels with my cell phone, and comparing them later at home. The other stores weren't even close. On things lik...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 19910

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

I have also done the math as well and compared the price of a lot of items between other stores including Safeway, Target, Wal-Mart, and Costco. I went as far as taking snapshots of price labels with my cell phone, and comparing them later at home. The other stores weren't even close. On things lik...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 19910

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

I will only offer another statement that is a universal truth. Principal payments on any form of debt increases net worth. Except you probably used your own cash/assets to offset debts, so your net worth (assets - liabilities) is unchanged. Although that transfer does impact future net worth as you...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 20084

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

I will not respond, as that implies some form of debate, and there is no debate here. I will only offer another statement that is a universal truth. Principal payments on any form of debt increases net worth. When I make the statement above, i do not mean the process of wrting of the check to transf...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 20084

Re: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?

I cannot believe this thread just goes on. To some extent, this seems to be the battle of those that know they are correct trying to convince those that think they are correct. My lone contribution here is to eliminate the notion of the house in the equation. Is paying down prioncipal of any debt to...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider mortgage payments as savings?
Replies: 410
Views: 20084

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

What I get a COSTCO are: 6. [Sometimes} tuna fish (Chicken of the Sea Chunk light] I suggest trying the Kirkland Signature Brand of albacore tuna. It is more expensive, but much better. Jeff I think this Kirkland brand may be new. I saw it (and that it was more expensive) on my last trip. Or, perha...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 19910

Re: Costco/AmEx relationship ending. New Costco MasterCard?

What is a good Citi card to sign up for to use at Costco and other places? The Citi Double Cash is great but I think that card is avaiable as a MC. To be sure that a card can be used at Costco I guess that you would have to wait until Costco comes up with information regarding their co-branded Citi...
by swaption
Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Costco/AmEx relationship ending. New Costco MasterCard?
Replies: 85
Views: 32283

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

If you are doing this, I'm hoping all of you are doing it with your car outside, or the garage door open, and the windows open so as not to have carbon monoxide build up. It obviously builds up in the garage--and you're walk into a room full of it. If you do that every morning it's not good for you...
by swaption
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 41
Views: 2637

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

Interesting. While I'm an advocate of an international allocation, I was not particularly a fan of Mr. Ferri's blog article and I'm not sure I'm a fan of this. As far as I can tell, the rationale provided is as follows: International exposure provides valuable diversification benefits. Vanguard eval...
by swaption
Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 219
Views: 17184

Re: What are Costco's best deals?

Nutella - 66 oz as compared to 13 oz in store, about $12 vs $5
My go to place for trimmed St. Louis cut ribs
My $50 Bolle ski helmet
Greek yogurt
Big containers of mixed nuts
Kirkland organic olive oil
Generic Claritin, and other generics
Cliff Bars
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are Costco's best deals?
Replies: 220
Views: 19910

Re: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return

...You will need to file an amended return if in fact a return was filed under your name... ...Apparently, this request only spits out the original return that was filed, not the subsequent amendments... Is it standard IRS procedure to do an actual amended return (1040X)? An amended return would se...
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return
Replies: 29
Views: 2719

Re: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return

Happened to me. You will need to file an amended return if in fact a return was filed under your name. My understanding was that the requested refund was not paid. Been relatively straight forward for me since then every year I am sent a new pin to file elctronically. But there were a couple of sub...
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return
Replies: 29
Views: 2719

Re: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return

Happened to me. You will need to file an amended return if in fact a return was filed under your name. My understanding was that the requested refund was not paid. Been relatively straight forward for me since then every year I am sent a new pin to file elctronically. This is not the right approach...
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return
Replies: 29
Views: 2719

Re: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return

Happened to me. You will need to file an amended return if in fact a return was filed under your name. My understanding was that the requested refund was not paid. Been relatively straight forward for me since then every year I am sent a new pin to file elctronically. But there were a couple of subs...
by swaption
Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Someone Else Filed My Tax Return
Replies: 29
Views: 2719

Re: When would you retire money no object?

It usually gets flames, so maybe I should shut up, but I find it sad that so many young people want to quit working asap. Why do you think it's sad? My dad (age 71) feels the same way but I don't get it. No one I've talked to that aspires to extreme early retirement wants/plans to sit around and be...
by swaption
Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you retire money no object?
Replies: 64
Views: 3419

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

What's the saying about when experts don't agree... it likely matters little. Let's just be clear here, expert(s) don't disagree. Bogle disagrees. Find me others. Bernstein, Swedroe, Ferri, or even the long lost Troutner? And in terms of Bogle, I'm not sure what would necessarily qualify him as an ...
by swaption
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 15710

Re: When would you retire money no object?

Have to cross that bridge when I come to it, but the answer for me might be never.
by swaption
Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you retire money no object?
Replies: 64
Views: 3419

Re: Where to buy nice men's dress shirts?

I echo the posters who recommended Charles Tyrwhitt and Brooks Brothers. The former has some type of internet promotion throughout the year, and the latter offers one of the most comprehensive sizing stocks among large, specialty men's retailers. I wear a shirt and tie to work everyday. My "de...
by swaption
Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to buy nice men's dress shirts?
Replies: 84
Views: 6366

Re: why stocks outperform other asset classes in the long ru

I admit I am ignorant and have not read any of the classic books. I didnt mean to start an informed debate - I had a few nagging doubts in my mind, hence the original post. Yes, I need to read those books. still trying to get my head around basic concepts. Even if I grab a little bit of wisdom in t...
by swaption
Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why stocks outperform other asset classes in the long run ?
Replies: 51
Views: 3505

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

Being US only has worked over the last 4 decades, I believe. If I had to guess -- and it's anybody's guess -- it would be that being US only vs. globally diversified will be a wash going forward. No clear advantage for being US-centric, but not a clear loser either. When making a statement such as ...
by swaption
Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 15710

Re: why stocks outperform other asset classes in the long ru

This is actually a great question, but long answers don't do it justice. Simple answer. If someone offers you 10 to 1 odds on a coin flip, but you have to bet your life savings, what do you do? The reasons most would not take that very good bet are the same as the reasons why stocks are expected to ...
by swaption
Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why stocks outperform other asset classes in the long run ?
Replies: 51
Views: 3505

Re: Risk vs Uncertainty

If I understand you, you would call them all "risk," and you would not make a distinction between the risk due to the variance itself, and the risk due to not knowing the value of the variance. Not Bobcat, but if there is risk due to uncertainty, then this is still a component of risk. Pr...
by swaption
Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk vs Uncertainty
Replies: 19
Views: 1426

Re: Where to buy nice men's dress shirts?

Been getting all my shirts at Charles Tyrwhitt the last few years and very happy. Noticed a curious thing, I think the neck sizes run marginally on the small side, and then shrink over time, so I just got some new shirts a half neck size larger (and if you think it is just me getting fat, I do have...
by swaption
Sat Feb 14, 2015 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to buy nice men's dress shirts?
Replies: 84
Views: 6366

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

No confusion about what you're saying about how the cost of imported goods might be affected by currency movements, but that is another topic and I don't believe it should be conflated with investment currency risk, which is what I thought was what we were talking about. No, it is the same thing. O...
by swaption
Sat Feb 14, 2015 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 15710

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

Browser, Thanks for the currency 101. i must say, a bit taken aback by the pretentiousness. We are not talking rocket science here. If the value of the dollar declines against other currencies, then the cost in dollars of imported goods goes up. These are not just finished products like cars or tele...
by swaption
Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 15710
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