Search found 2549 matches

by stlutz
Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve
Replies: 8
Views: 565

Re: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve

Back to my original post, one interesting thing is the magnitude of the drop in longer term bond prices. I'm not sure the yield curve behaved as many expected.


Good point--yield curve flattening has been one of those conventional wisdom things that hasn't [yet] played out.
by stlutz
Sat Jul 04, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve
Replies: 8
Views: 565

Re: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve

You're mixing credit and duration risks. Corporate bonds have outperformed Treasuries in general the past few years. Improving economy and high profits are good for such bonds. If you compare short/intermediate/long Treasuries only or the same with corporates, the results are very linear (i.e. YTD s...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 04, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm spending 20% more than what i estimate. Easy way to track my expenses?
Replies: 30
Views: 1565

Re: I'm spending 20% more than what i estimate. Easy way to track my expenses?

Before I read the full OP, I was thinking, "Put it all on the credit card so you can easily go through it line by line." :happy
by stlutz
Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total International Stock Index deviated from index
Replies: 5
Views: 691

Re: Total International Stock Index deviated from index

Well, the performance gap doesn't currently exist, so obviously something quirky and not fundamental.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT
by stlutz
Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Cell Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 3229

Re: Best Cell Plan?

How do I figure out if an MVNO has data roaming? Which other MVNO's offer the same service as the carrier whose network they use? ie will service with Consumer Cellular be as good as service with AT&T? The only AT&T-based prepaid service that offers roaming is Consumer Cellular. Note: (AT&a...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 3041

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

I look to be in the 4-5 range. Based on backtesting, you very very little extra return and a lot of extra volatility going much beyond 5.
by stlutz
Wed Jul 01, 2015 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case Study: Broker speed of dividend payments
Replies: 65
Views: 8787

Re: Case Study: Broker speed of dividend payments

Updating this thread w.r.t. Fidelity. In contrast to my prior experience, my dividend from one of my ETFs (USMV) which had a paydate of 6/30 did not hit my account until sometime today (7/1).
by stlutz
Wed Jul 01, 2015 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a target retirement fund investor, should I substitute Admiral Funds for Investor Shares?
Replies: 24
Views: 1647

Re: As a target retirement fund investor, should I substitute Admiral Funds for Investor Shares?

You should not change simply because of the ER difference. That amount is so small that it's part of the overall noise. The ER difference would matter less than if you were lucky enough to pick the exact right/wrong dates to rebalance, for example. This thread may be of interest to you: https://www....
by stlutz
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: international rbd [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 18
Views: 1243

Re: international rbd

You missed where I posted that I bought shares of VEA on the RBD.


Oops. :annoyed
by stlutz
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: international rbd [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 18
Views: 1243

Re: international rbd

I always wait for the official market-timing call from livesoft. I didn't see that, so I took no action.
by stlutz
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?
Replies: 15
Views: 1409

Re: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?

Muni bonds have historically been less risky than investment grade corporates. That said, many (myself included) think they do carry somewhat more credit risk now than they used to. They certainly have more liquidity risk (which has driven their relatively high yields). What are the rest of your bon...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity or Schwab checking account better for foreign travel?
Replies: 14
Views: 1297

Re: Fidelity or Schwab checking account better for foreign travel?

Not related to foreign travel, but I prefer Schwab because they actually have a bank while Fido provides banking services. With Fido, if there is a problem it's might lie with their service provider to actually solve the issue. With Schwab, if when I've had to call about something on my checking acc...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 30, 2015 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Fund - dividends?
Replies: 20
Views: 1506

Re: TIPS Fund - dividends?

abuss--about every two weeks you start a thread about how you are completely mystified as to why anyone would use TIPS. Right now a 10 year nominal yields 2.35%. A 10 year TIPS yields .48%. If, over the next 10 years, average inflation is above 1.87%, TIPS win; if it is below 1.87%, nominal bonds wi...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 102
Views: 12429

Re: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund

No.

Vanguard will issue the new fund/ETF when they feel they are ready to. They said several years ago that they were going to have an entire lineup of such ETFs and they never happened.
by stlutz
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9031

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

Put in an order for some VTI at the open?
by stlutz
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 27
Views: 2508

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

From a market timing perspective, no. 10 year CDs regularly yield ~1% more than a 10 year Treasury. Right now that gap is only about 70 basis points.

Brokered CD rates tend to lag changes in Treasury rates somewhat.
by stlutz
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merrill Edge anyone?
Replies: 98
Views: 16307

Re: Merrill Edge anyone?

You think Vanguard is giving the Edge a kickback when people buy its ETFs there?
by stlutz
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2595

Re: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?

These are in the "interesting to follow but not to invest in right now" bucket for me. I'd like to see more of these funds actually mature to get a better feel for whether it actually is the case that you "get your principal back at maturity." These funds are still holding callab...
by stlutz
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merrill Edge anyone?
Replies: 98
Views: 16307

Re: Merrill Edge anyone?

Merrill Edge does not get kickbacks from any ETF providers. Schwab does with their ETF one source as does Fidelity with their iShares program. Both of these brokers do not restrict which ETFs can be traded. My understanding is that Merrill Edge has restrictions on trading illiquid securities. I thin...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: pricing of Vanguard's original issue CDs
Replies: 9
Views: 1163

Re: pricing of Vanguard's original issue CDs

I'd like to amend my prior post and come back to the OP's initial specific question about the price he is seeing. Right now to buy a 10 year CD on the secondary market, the best yield at VG is 3.31%. The best new issue CD is 3.3% (at other brokers the best new issue is currently 3.25%). So, there is...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: pricing of Vanguard's original issue CDs
Replies: 9
Views: 1163

Re: pricing of Vanguard's original issue CDs

The price of a brokered CD is a somewhat odd thing. One might think that in a real market, all government-guaranteed brokered CDs would yield about the same. Yet, if I look at new issue non-callable 5 year brokered CDs currently available at Vanguard, yields range from 2.35% down to 1.5%. Who buys t...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6747

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

ajacobs6: I would suggest putting aside the question of which stocks did best when and just start with a thought experiment. Take a big conglomerate like GE. It could legitimately be broken up into 20 separate companies that would all be different from one another. --Suppose you originally owned 100...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's so so customer service
Replies: 51
Views: 5182

Re: Vanguard's so so customer service

I never understood why people think Fidelity is better at customer service. Based on the feedback I see on BH, I opened a Cash Management Account and a brokerage account with Fidelity. For me, first contact people usually had to refer me to secondary people on specific questions. It took days to ge...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing and CDs in a Market Crisis
Replies: 7
Views: 1207

Re: Rebalancing and CDs in a Market Crisis

Suppose there is an inflation spike which causes interest rates to rise and the stock market to go down. Your Treasuries decline from $20,000 to $19,000. Under this strategy, are you going to say your CDs are only worth $19,000 as well?
by stlutz
Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: yobria's easyallocator.org website?
Replies: 9
Views: 1365

Re: yobria's easyallocator.org website?

I think once he switched to a 3 fund portfolio, investing became boring and he found other stuff to do...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 21, 2015 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Grantham and Hussman Correct About Valuations? [US stock market, Larry article]
Replies: 18
Views: 1975

Re: Are Grantham and Hussman Correct About Valuations? [US stock market, Larry article]

Using PE10 as a market-timing tool has not worked well historically, particularly when looking at real as opposed to nominal returns. Unfortunately, discussions of valuations always go down the road of market timing and end up not being helpful. I personally don't think there is any mean to which ce...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So my pension has been frozen...
Replies: 34
Views: 6215

Re: So my pension has been frozen...

Assuming "27 years from now" means age 65, you would have to turn that $6100 into $65,000 to purchase an annuity that provides $363/mo. That means a little over a 9% rate of return if you invested the money yourself. I wouldn't bet on that. From a pure dollars and cents perspective, sticki...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Taxes
Replies: 17
Views: 1966

Re: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Taxes

You can use this file to identify what percentage of the dividends are exempt from state tax.

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/usgo_012015.pdf

This ETF pretty much never spins off capital gains.
by stlutz
Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bond Fund vrs. Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 704

Re: Bond Fund vrs. Bonds

Yes.

When it comes to bonds, VBTLX is pretty much never the wrong answer.
by stlutz
Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my review of my HSA with Saturna brokerage
Replies: 62
Views: 14239

Re: my review of my HSA with Saturna brokerage

Mike 14: Is Vanguard one of the families that falls under footnote 3 on their commissions page? ³ Additional charges may apply for certain mutual funds. Please contact Saturna for details. I know when I briefly had a "window account" in my 401K administered by Hewitt, there was an addition...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's government bond index funds
Replies: 25
Views: 3724

Re: Vanguard's government bond index funds

At Schwab I'm using actual Treasury notes or high volume ETF's - neither Schwab's own or Vanguards because of low trading volume. As a single data point, I bought some SCHR a couple of weeks back and had no real issues trading it. I originally put in an order at the bid and got back to work. Came b...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer 401k limits (Non HCE)
Replies: 11
Views: 1340

Re: Employer 401k limits (Non HCE)

It's only in the last couple of years that my Fortune 500 employer allowed one to contribute more than 10% before tax.
by stlutz
Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confusion about tax efficiency of bond in tax deferred account
Replies: 8
Views: 891

Re: Confusion about tax efficiency of bond in tax deferred account

The thing is when thinking about asset allocation, I don't mix 401 with Roth IRA with taxable, because the expected liquidate period is very different. And yes, I want to sequester 401(k). This is fine. Your actual problem is your fear of holding bonds in a taxable account. Low-yielding bonds are f...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5091

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

The point of all this is that demonstrating the superiority of factor investing whether it be single factor or multi-factor, is easy when we backtest cost-free indexes carefully selected with 20/20 hindsight. But it is not so easy for real funds with real expenses and trading costs to duplicate thi...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 14, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity intl small cap: VSS ($7.95) vs SCZ/EEMS (free)
Replies: 5
Views: 701

Re: Fidelity intl small cap: VSS ($7.95) vs SCZ/EEMS (free)

Neither. I would do 100% SCZ. Reasons: --No commission. --It has much tighter trading spreads than VSS --It trails its index by much less than its .4% expense ratio over the long haul (securities lending I assume?). EEMS trails its benchmark by a significant amount. Given that his holding would be/s...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31560

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

With regard to equities, this fund provides the factor exposure without increasing exposure to the market factor. All cheaper long only ways to obtain factor exposure give you additional big dose of beta along with the factor. And our long only portfolios already probably have enough of that. You d...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: [Forum Software Upgraded Today]
Replies: 9
Views: 1928

Re: Forum Software Upgrade TODAY at 3 PM Eastern

You mean we might have to go outside and enjoy a nice summer afternoon? ;)
by stlutz
Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31560

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Having followed the discussion, I actually think the skeptics like me have possibly been somewhat unfair, although there is an underlying reason for that. The folks here who have talked about using this fund are suggesting to use it as a small part of their portfolio, not as their entire portfolio. ...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5091

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

Actually, I think the problem with the funds nisi listed (at least the AQR) one, is the they are long both momentum and volatility. AQR simply ranks companies by 12 month return and invests in the top third. In an up market like we've been in, it means that you might be picking stocks with high mome...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?
Replies: 84
Views: 8423

Re: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?

Predict/Expect/Assume/Forecast. Yes, everyone is doing it. I don't invest in stocks just because somebody is selling them--I predict that I will earn a long term real return by doing so.
by stlutz
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Floors
Replies: 15
Views: 2569

Re: New Floors

Once I decided on what I thought I wanted, I bought a box of the flooring and laid that out in my house before committing on any serious purchase.
by stlutz
Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dispute/Don't Pay Medical Bill
Replies: 45
Views: 3128

Re: Dispute/Don't Pay Medical Bill

I had 4 sessions of PT over the winter, total of 2.5 hours that I reluctantly paid $800 OOP for. I can easily pay the bill, but it's getting to a matter of principle. I tried to argue the PT bill and my hospital said they cannot adjust the amount after the fact As a side note, hospital-based PT cos...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 12, 2015 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB)?
Replies: 10
Views: 937

Re: Why not iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB)?

IUSB is in the "worth watching" category. Right now the main problem with it is that it trades with fairly significant spreads which increases the overall holding cost. If you want to include junk bonds in your portfolio at basically market weight, using IUSB is a better way to do it that ...
by stlutz
Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund vs ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1667

Re: Fund vs ETF

Welcome to the fourm! The most important thing to remember is that they are the same fund. Here are some of the key differences: --You can buy mutual funds in dollars; you buy ETFs in shares. --Funds are priced at the end of the day; ETFs trade throughout the day. --Funds do not have a bid/ask sprea...
by stlutz
Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 4227

Re: Vanguard Target Funds

What is your opinion of the Vanguard Target funds' glide path - do you think they hold stocks for too long and plunge too quickly into bonds? What should we do if we wish the professional simplicity of the Target fund, but its AA is not our desired AA? Should we "supplement" our portfolio...
by stlutz
Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1648

Re: Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund

What do the "experts" consider to be an appropriate average duration for an intermediate term bond fund?


I don't know that the experts really indicate a specific number, but around 5 is the usual assumption as to what an "intermediate" term bond duration is.

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