Search found 2591 matches

by stlutz
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing risk with long term bonds?
Replies: 3
Views: 366

Re: Market timing risk with long term bonds?

This is what that "interest rate risk" that ogd was talking about in the other thread looks like. That is a risk of buying long-term bonds--that you lock in a rate for 30 years when you could have done much better had you waited a day/week/month/year.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2910

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

rca: A few random thoughts based on comments above. Buying a 30 year bond and holding to maturity isn't really holding long-term bonds. This is holding long term bonds now and short term bonds later. A 30 year bond now is a 5 year bond 25 years down the road. That might be perfectly appropriate, but...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got a new job, but 401k's investment options don't include Vanguard. Which should I choose?
Replies: 9
Views: 925

Re: Just got a new job, but 401k's investment options don't include Vanguard. Which should I choose?

My bet is that Schwab S&P 500, Schwab Smcallcap index, Schwab International Index, and Dreyfus Bond Index would be the funds most worth considering as I think they have low expense ratios and would be pretty much the same thing as their VG equivalents. But, as the prior poster notes, you should ...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2910

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

There are a couple of considerations. First, is which bonds are best to hold on their own? As has been discussed, a total bond index does hold long-term bonds, but you rightly point out that this doesn't mean that the overall portfolio duration is that high. So, I would rephrase your question as, &q...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation
Replies: 137
Views: 33317

Re: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation

TIPS yields are higher now than they were in the fall of 2011.
by stlutz
Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???
Replies: 46
Views: 2470

Re: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???

Has anyone here or in print elsewhere sat down and come up with realistic simulations that show that a TIPS LMP would "work" but holding a fund where you withdraw an inflation adjusted $ amount every year would not? The former certainly offers more of a feeling of certainty, but is it real...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4635

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

But you could say the same of equities. Equities might underperform bonds. Do you still hold equities? If you do, you are essentially betting that because they have outperformed bonds for the past 135 years we have data on, that they will continue to outperform them in the future. But then, if you ...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4635

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

I think for an asset to "work" it just needs to have higher expected returns, lower risk, or higher expected returns per unit of risk. There is no such thing as the expected return. Investors only have their own expectations to work from. My expectations are not a rule of the universe. In...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cashed in 401(k), Did I wait for RBD to invest?
Replies: 5
Views: 292

Re: Cashed in 401(k), Did I wait for RBD to invest?

So, is this a forecast that because you followed this approach that there will be an RBD in the coming days? ;)
by stlutz
Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2412

Re: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?

I'd step back from the asset allocation discussion and look at the big picture. Right now, your annual savings are are a huge part of your overall portfolio. Because of that, how much you have 5 years from now isn't going to depend that much on your asset allocation. As such, a possible starting poi...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident
Replies: 23
Views: 2124

Re: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident

Thanks .. I just can't get over giving up 33% of my out of pocket for the ~7000 medical expenses and 3500 pain and suffering offer which I can get easily. That's 3500 straight to the lawyer's pocket without them really earning it as far as I'm concerned. I would need the lawyer to earn me an extra ...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident
Replies: 23
Views: 2124

Re: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident

If you want to press the issue, you'll probably need to speak with an attorney.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psy-Fi Blog's "The Big List of Behavioral Biases"
Replies: 2
Views: 435

Re: The Psy-Fi Blog's "The Big List of Behavioral Biases"

"Diworsification is good for you" is one of my favorite posts on that blog.

http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/10/diworsi ... r-you.html
by stlutz
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap weight maximum diversification?
Replies: 46
Views: 2366

Re: Cap weight maximum diversification?

Anytime somebody discusses "diversification" in the context of outperforming the market, what is actually being discussed in *concentrating* one's investments in the segments of the market that one expects to perform the best. That said, I view cap. weighting as a very convenient, transpar...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3811

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

VG "Total Stock" holds over 99% of available market cap. Arguments over whether or not that is "total" are very academic. In contrast, "Total Bond" does exclude very significant parts of the bond market. But, if you want to get closer to holding the total US taxable mar...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Customer Service - Fidelity 401K rollover to Schwab IRA
Replies: 26
Views: 1308

Re: Customer Service - Fidelity 401K rollover to Schwab IRA

So, have we found a place where Vanguard offers clearly superior service to Fido or Schwab? Based on the other threads I've read, Vanguard's Concierge Services will setup a 3-way call between you, them, and your current 401K provider to work out the specifics of transferring the money. Usually the n...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: limit order on bond
Replies: 3
Views: 163

Re: limit order on bond

Did you un-select the "fill or kill" option on the order entry screen? I tried putting in my own limit price one time just to see what would happen (I think it might have been a secondary CD) and the order just sat there. When I looked later the day, the ask price hadn't changed. I eventua...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:10 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: livesoft surpasses 40,000 posts!
Replies: 74
Views: 4896

Re: livesoft surpasses 40,000 posts!

... and yet there are still people not using Wells Fargo.
by stlutz
Sun Jul 19, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 963

Re: CD: value of early withdrawal option

If you can withdraw early, who cares what the stated term is? Why not break a CD with 3 years left on it if you can get a significantly better 5 year rate today? If the new 5 year CD has a reasonable penalty, you can always break that down the road if you need the money or find a better opportunity....
by stlutz
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a decent time to buy gold? [Portfolio help]
Replies: 88
Views: 6847

Re: Is now a decent time to buy gold? [Portfolio help]

I used to be an anti-gold person, but I've moderated my views. The thing gold has going for it is that there is a relatively fixed supply. What is being mined is relatively small compared to the overall global gold stock. Another poster noted that gold represents about 1% of the global investor asse...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 60K Car Maintenance Service = $600. Is this Reasonable?
Replies: 51
Views: 4286

Re: 60K Car Maintenance Service = $600. Is this Reasonable?

All of this paranoia over the "stealership" is a little over the top. The "independent mechanic" has one incentive only--to sell you repairs. With the dealership, yes they want to sell you repairs but they also don't want you to think that the particular type of cars they sell ar...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about a rant by nisiprius
Replies: 7
Views: 2155

Re: Question about a rant by nisiprius

Historical annual returns can be looked up on Morningstar or I actually prefer Yahoo finance. For example, here are the annual returns for VG Wellington back to 1930: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VWELX+Performance Copy and paste into Excel and run scenarios to your heart's content. Perhaps come b...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: honda civic or Prius?
Replies: 86
Views: 7234

Re: honda civic or Prius?

Driving a liftback like a Prius involves using your outside mirrors more than you would in a sedan. That aspect is not unique to a Prius. I wouldn't but a Prius only for the gas mileage--there are quite a few cars nowadays that get excellent mileage (albeit still lower than a Prius). I bought mine i...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 16, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we go without Health Insurance for 5 Days?
Replies: 32
Views: 1456

Re: Should we go without Health Insurance for 5 Days?

Would a travel insurance policy work?
by stlutz
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5607

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

At some point in the future, the yield curve will invert. If 2 year CDs are yielding 4% and 5 year CDs are yielding 3%, which would you pick? That's more the scenario I was getting at. The person holding some type of intermediate term bond fund generally ignores the shape of the yield curve and just...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5607

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

What about a CD augmented at all times with a sufficient amount of long bonds to account for the declining duration? I'm talking about VUSUX = LT Treasuries, or maybe even BLV = Long Term 50/50 to also account for the missing credit risk that TBM has? This does assume you have a supply of TBM to ex...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC & Fox Business Websites
Replies: 26
Views: 2880

Re: CNBC & Fox Business Websites

What do you like better about bloomberg.com than CNBC and Fox Business? I read more things there that still matter more than 10 minutes from now. Fewer articles overall, but what they have is much higher quality. Their reporting on the Greece situation the past couple of weeks has been very educati...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5607

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

I just updated my CD vs Bond Fund Case Study which I originally wrote in 2013. I predicted at that time a 7-year CD bought in 2009 would do better than Vanguard Total Bond fund when it matures in 2016 even though it was behind by 1.6% a year in the first 4 years. It looks like it will prove true. W...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concierge Care
Replies: 36
Views: 3391

Re: Concierge Care

How often does anyone spend $1650 out of pocket in a given year with their PCP? Or even half that much?
by stlutz
Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC & Fox Business Websites
Replies: 26
Views: 2880

Re: CNBC & Fox Business Websites

bloomberg.com is better.
by stlutz
Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 1462

Re: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?

It's not necessarily the case that companies with a lot of debt are more risky than ones without. Lenders are very conscious of risk as they can lose 100% of their investment like equity holders but their upside is capped to the interest payments they receive while equity holders have unlimited upsi...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5607

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

At the end of day, nobody knows if their portfolio would have been better off with CDs or bonds. It depends on: --Which CDs you bought and when --Which bonds you bought (treasuries, total bond, corporates?) and when they were short/intermediate/long-term bonds. --Whether you rebalanced between stock...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 410
Views: 67617

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I will speculate out the wazoo here: I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an ag...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Rational People are Risk Averse
Replies: 33
Views: 3639

Re: Why Rational People are Risk Averse

Of course, happiness is to a large extent driven by how we are relative to our peers, not some absolute level of accomplishment. I'm satisfied as a cyclist based on how fast I am relative to the people I ride with. If I'm riding with my current batch of friends, I'm pretty happy, though not supremel...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock
Replies: 29
Views: 3581

Re: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock

This rules-based approach to index investing may sometimes be referred to as multifactor investing, factor-based investing, strategic beta, or smart beta. As currently contemplated, securities are classified according to their market capitalization, relative price, and profitability. Weights for in...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amica or Allstate ?
Replies: 9
Views: 535

Re: Amica or Allstate ?

I had one very large UIM claim and a smaller claim with Amiga and I have only good things to say.
by stlutz
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3344

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

My perception is that Rick Ferri has become less strong of a proponent of value tilting through time. For example, in his latest 30 year market "forecast", he says that value tilting is worth about .5%/yr. (http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/portfolio-solutions%C2%AE-30-year-market-...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6710

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Minimum volatility is just a different combination of factors. MSCI ACWI Minimum Volatility: Dec 1998 to April 2015 Alpha = -0.12 Mkt = 0.78 Size = 0.04 Value = 0.22 Momentum = 0.01 Value = 0.41 R^2 = 0.88 The problem with Robert T's approach is that factor weightings for low volatility funds vary ...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 05, 2015 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 25932

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

If you can get BloombergTV, you might be interested.


If you have internet, you can get Bloomberg TV: http://www.bloomberg.com/live
by stlutz
Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401K Bond Selection
Replies: 3
Views: 251

Re: Company 401K Bond Selection

That fund looks fine. It's not the perfect fund, but when it comes to 401Ks, you have to pick the best options available and there is nothing hugely wrong with this fund. Over time as you collect more accounts (e.g. IRAs, 401Ks at different employers etc.), you'll want to reevaluate based on your to...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve
Replies: 8
Views: 820

Re: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve

Back to my original post, one interesting thing is the magnitude of the drop in longer term bond prices. I'm not sure the yield curve behaved as many expected.


Good point--yield curve flattening has been one of those conventional wisdom things that hasn't [yet] played out.
by stlutz
Sat Jul 04, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve
Replies: 8
Views: 820

Re: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve

You're mixing credit and duration risks. Corporate bonds have outperformed Treasuries in general the past few years. Improving economy and high profits are good for such bonds. If you compare short/intermediate/long Treasuries only or the same with corporates, the results are very linear (i.e. YTD s...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 04, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm spending 20% more than what i estimate. Easy way to track my expenses?
Replies: 52
Views: 4136

Re: I'm spending 20% more than what i estimate. Easy way to track my expenses?

Before I read the full OP, I was thinking, "Put it all on the credit card so you can easily go through it line by line." :happy
by stlutz
Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total International Stock Index deviated from index
Replies: 9
Views: 1946

Re: Total International Stock Index deviated from index

Well, the performance gap doesn't currently exist, so obviously something quirky and not fundamental.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT
by stlutz
Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Cell Plan?
Replies: 45
Views: 5612

Re: Best Cell Plan?

How do I figure out if an MVNO has data roaming? Which other MVNO's offer the same service as the carrier whose network they use? ie will service with Consumer Cellular be as good as service with AT&T? The only AT&T-based prepaid service that offers roaming is Consumer Cellular. Note: (AT&a...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 61
Views: 5629

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

I look to be in the 4-5 range. Based on backtesting, you very very little extra return and a lot of extra volatility going much beyond 5.

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