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by stlutz
Tue May 26, 2015 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 83
Views: 8143

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

I know this is going way back in the thread, but I want to question Doc's statement: Morningstar's Intermediate-Term Bond Category represents the high quality intermediate term portion of the bond continuum and many if not most of the funds in this category use the Bar Cap Agg Index as their bogey. ...
by stlutz
Tue May 26, 2015 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 83
Views: 8143

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

Most. Confusing. Pair of Charts. Ever: The "Total Bond" Market Index is more than just treasury bonds and corporate bonds. For example, the current highest yielding bond held by the AGG ETF (iShares version of total bond) is a Chicago, Illinois taxable bond. Many of the bonds under the ge...
by stlutz
Sun May 24, 2015 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Limited Term Bonds v CDs
Replies: 6
Views: 828

Re: Limited Term Bonds v CDs

Do what's easiest. There's not enough dollar difference to worry about it a whole lot.
by stlutz
Sat May 23, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bond ETFs a bad idea?
Replies: 43
Views: 2663

Re: Are Bond ETFs a bad idea?

The problem is always defining which vehicle is "mispriced". Most municipal bonds rarely trade. As such, they are priced each day based on algorithms. The corporate bond market is more liquid than the muni market, but there is still the question of what they are worth if investors start un...
by stlutz
Mon May 18, 2015 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How fast should I ride my bicycle?
Replies: 64
Views: 4349

Re: How fast should I ride my bicycle?

I'd worry less about interval training, heart rate monitors and the like and find ways to mix up your riding more. I ride a lot and being rather small I climb well. I can climb and climb and not get any better. The way I get faster on the climbs is to do flat rides in the wind. Mixing it up he a lot...
by stlutz
Fri May 15, 2015 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Passively Managed Investment Offering
Replies: 2
Views: 443

Re: Fidelity Passively Managed Investment Offering

I didn't see where the pdf said anything about advice? It just seems to list passive investment options available at Fidelity.
by stlutz
Mon May 11, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a lighter bicycle or lose body weight?
Replies: 53
Views: 3972

Re: Should I buy a lighter bicycle or lose body weight?

Actually carbon is the most repairable frame material out there.
by stlutz
Sun May 10, 2015 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a lighter bicycle or lose body weight?
Replies: 53
Views: 3972

Re: Should I buy a lighter bicycle or lose body weight?

I'm not sure that I've ever seen this many incorrect answers in one BH thread.

One of the basic rules of cycling is that the correct number of bikes to own is N+1, where N is the number currently owned. As such, you should most definitely buy the new bike.

End of discussion.
by stlutz
Sun May 10, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4516

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

Studies that include higher moments find that this effect is largely, perhaps entirely, a premium for holding negatively skewed portfolios. In other words, no free lunch. Historically, the value premium is larger in down markets than it is in up markets. Obviously that's not true in 100% of the cas...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone ever ship a bicycle?
Replies: 8
Views: 703

Re: Anyone ever ship a bicycle?

Google "how to box a bike" and you'll get some good instructions. Yes, you will want to do a fair amount of disassembly. The more you can do the better--both in terms of safety and cost (i.e. smaller boxes=cheaper). FedEx Ground will likely be the cheapest way to ship--cost should be aroun...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds: A financial innovation that's working
Replies: 11
Views: 1896

Re: Target Date Funds: A financial innovation that's working

If individuals made the same changes to their portfolio as Vanguard has with Target Date funds we would hardly call that staying the course. I know we don't do polls anymore, but when I did one on how long people here have been with the same allocation, it wasn't like people set something and never...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active vs. passive in more niche markets
Replies: 58
Views: 2451

Re: Active vs. passive in more niche markets

Taking a quick look at Morningstar. For the past 15 years, Vanguard Emerging Market's fund has delivered an average annual return of 8.73%. That beats the emerging market category (mostly active funds) by .76% per year. The VG fund ranks better than 68% of its emerging markets competitors.
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 43
Views: 5257

Re: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It

When I read Ferri's and Swedroe's on this matter I find both convincing... Eventually I may end up replicating the Total Bond Market fund where the ultra-simplicity people have been all along. Yup, I'm kind of in the same boat. I agree with Ferri that corporate and high-yield bonds are valid asset ...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard investors: be thankful for ETFs!*
Replies: 24
Views: 3523

Re: Vanguard investors: be thankful for ETFs!*

It's different for taxable bond funds -- capital gains distributions are generally a good thing, if you think about the alternative: keeping a premium bond in your portfolio and getting more ordinary income instead. It's generally better to turn it over once it's premium enough. I agree. But better...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard investors: be thankful for ETFs!*
Replies: 24
Views: 3523

Re: Vanguard investors: be thankful for ETFs!*

I wonder if the fact that Vanguard does this leads to the ETFs being inferior compared to other ETFs from a tax efficiency perspective because the ETF holders are forced to share tax efficiency with the mutual fund class. One place I have observed this is with the treasury ETF, VGIT. It has distrib...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling house; what to fix, what to leave?
Replies: 26
Views: 2181

Re: Selling house; what to fix, what to leave?

Speaking from the perspective of somebody who doesn't like doing home repair and doesn't need a bunch of "upgrades", #1 on your list is the only one that would scare me away.
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling condo should I replace carpeting?
Replies: 15
Views: 1575

Re: Selling condo should I replace carpeting?

By the way, us people who do not allow animals in our house can pick out pet stains, pet smells and pet hair a mile away. You're not fooling anyone. I was about to say the same thing. The other challenge on this point is that different potential buyers would be looking for different things. For an ...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard v. Fidelity
Replies: 26
Views: 2276

Re: Vanguard v. Fidelity

Just because Fidelity is the administrator of your new plan doesn't mean that it will offer a lot of Fidelity funds. Looking at all of the discussions about Fido-administered 401K plans here, some let people invest in pretty much anything, some are limited to some very high cost (and often non-Fidel...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 43
Views: 5257

Re: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It

Or the markets aren't necessarily that efficient at everything, and/or the models for asset pricing aren't quite right. It wouldn't be the first "anomaly" (if you want to call it that) that would rub some people the wrong way. It's always worth remembering that not all market participants...
by stlutz
Sat May 09, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 43
Views: 5257

Re: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It

Interesting points thus far. A few things I would add: a) Actually the paper itself does take call risk into account in its analysis. At least for the last 30 years where it is based on real indexes that had detailed data, they were looking at the option-adjusted spread between corporates and treasu...
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 43
Views: 5257

Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It

Interesting article from Larry S.:

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... nopaging=1

Or to go to the underlying paper (of course from AQR):

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=2563482
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA start with Medicaid or "connector", private insurances?
Replies: 12
Views: 817

Re: ACA start with Medicaid or "connector", private insurances?

The subsidy you ultimately get depends upon your actual income. If you overestimate the amount of subsidy you are entitled to now, you'll have to pay it back when you file your taxes next year.

In short, I think you're over-thinking this.
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand why maxing out Roth TSP is better than Traditional
Replies: 23
Views: 1405

Re: Help me understand why maxing out Roth TSP is better than Traditional

The "default" assumption would be that the traditional is better than the Roth. However, this ultimately depends upon a bunch of factors like what your other sources of income are in retirement. Then there is also the factor that tax policy will change in the future in ways that are imposs...
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question re high yield muni fund HYMB
Replies: 4
Views: 435

Re: Question re high yield muni fund HYMB

I would back up a bit. Two years of expenses should not really be thought of as an "emergency" fund. The fact that you are thinking of investing a significant portion of this money in a risky fund suggests that you may actually be of the same opinion. In fact, we're always saving for multi...
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA start with Medicaid or "connector", private insurances?
Replies: 12
Views: 817

Re: ACA start with Medicaid or "connector", private insurances?

If you find you actually need medical care, you'll be much happier with a private plan.
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How/Where to know if particular day RBD on that day?
Replies: 13
Views: 1080

Re: How/Where to know if particular day RBD on that day?

I will repeat the RBD definition for the unnamed forum member: A "really bad day" in an ETF is a drop of at least 2.5% AND greater than the 4th biggest drop in the ETF in the past 150 trading days. That is, the drop would become the 4th biggest drop for the ETF in the most recent 151 days ...
by stlutz
Fri May 08, 2015 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1775

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

FWIW, from a Morningstar style-box perspective, the way to get the closest to Wellington would be to use 65% VLUE and 35% QLTA. This being the Bogleheads forum, I'd suggest that a three fund portfolio is the best place to start and then you can deviate from there if you want to tweak some (which mos...
by stlutz
Thu May 07, 2015 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring securities from one taxable brokerage to another
Replies: 5
Views: 366

Re: Transferring securities from one taxable brokerage to another

Brokerages are required to transfer the cost basis info for covered securities. You'll be fine.
by stlutz
Thu May 07, 2015 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term Capital Gains vs Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 13
Views: 897

Re: Long term Capital Gains vs Tax loss harvesting

Here is the the OP is proposing: Suppose you have an investment worth $100. Next year it goes up to $110. The year after that, it drops back to $100. Total return for the buy-and-hold investor = 0. If you instead sold after year one and paid taxes at 15% on the $10, re-bought, and then TLH'd after i...
by stlutz
Mon May 04, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making it simpler..
Replies: 3
Views: 588

Re: Making it simpler..

Welcome to the forum! So, if you look at your history, you generally stick with a plan for only a few years. While that sounds like a criticism--it's not. In fact, that's the case with a lot of people here based on this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=154591 However...
by stlutz
Mon May 04, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 67
Views: 5550

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

Let's consider another question. Back in the 80s and 90s, most of us were investing in high-cost active mutual funds with ERs of 1%+. We might have even been paying front-end loads to buy them. If one had a financial advisor, he was paying that person a high AUM fee or commissions. Nowadays, investi...
by stlutz
Mon May 04, 2015 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 67
Views: 5550

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

There is an important distinction between being pessimistic and being realistic and Gross' article definitely leans in the former direction, often for quite illogical reasons. First, let's start with the realistic facts. There were definitely some things that happened in the 1980s and 90s that were ...
by stlutz
Mon May 04, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Municipal Bond Options for Fidelity or Ameritrade
Replies: 10
Views: 780

Re: Best Municipal Bond Options for Fidelity or Ameritrade

VG will be coming out with it's own ETF tracking the same index as MUB, supposedly sometime before 6/30. It will have an ER of .12%. From a cost perspective, buying this ETF (and paying a commission to trade it) is worth considering.
by stlutz
Mon May 04, 2015 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comparing MA tax exempt and total market bond funds
Replies: 6
Views: 476

Re: Comparing MA tax exempt and total market bond funds

A few notes: Pre-2008, munis generally yielded about 85% of what Treasuries did. Post-2008, they have been higher. This is because of increased liquidity risk as opposed to increased credit risk. The muni market became much less liquid once brokers couldn't keep large inventories on their balance sh...
by stlutz
Sun May 03, 2015 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My first post! What to do with taxable account?
Replies: 12
Views: 1667

Re: My first post! What to do with taxable account?

While you might barely squeak into the 15% bracket this year since part of the year is at your old salary, going forward it looks to me like you'll be in the 25% bracket. Taking a bunch of capital gains this year would likely push you into the 25% bracket as well. Also, a 100/0 allocation might be a...
by stlutz
Sun May 03, 2015 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2071

Re: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?

I think there are a few questions that are all getting conflated together. --Should one expect a high-cost bond fund to outperform a very similar low-cost one? I sure hope not. --Should one expect that a well-managed fund can reliably outperform a very similar (in terms of securities held) index one...
by stlutz
Sun May 03, 2015 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation Ideas out west
Replies: 42
Views: 3100

Re: Vacation Ideas out west

In terms of timing, I took two weeks to go to all five of the Utah National Parks (Capital Reef was my favorite), the Grand Canyon, and to drop down to Tucson to visit friends for a few days. Of course, it always depends on what you like to do. I like to day hike (though not backpack), so a day or t...
by stlutz
Sun May 03, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I do not understand these 401k choices
Replies: 12
Views: 1050

Re: I do not understand these 401k choices

Here is the MSCI "Factsheet" for the ACWI ex US IMI index: https://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/index_fact_sheet/msci-acwi-ex-usa-imi.pdf. ACWI Ex. US stands for is the "All Country World Index excluding US". IMI means that it invests in entire investible universe in those c...
by stlutz
Sat May 02, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Polls Disabled
Replies: 60
Views: 3579

Re: Polls Disabled

99.9% of forum members who don't care about the lack of polls, won't bother posting in this thread. I'll be in the .1% and say that I couldn't care less one way or the other. Most of the time I usually ignored the actual poll result and just read the comments anyhow. So I guess my forum experience ...
by stlutz
Sat May 02, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling covered vs. noncovered Vanguard MF shares?
Replies: 3
Views: 232

Re: Selling covered vs. noncovered Vanguard MF shares?

If you want to change your cost basis method, be sure to make the change one day and then wait a couple of days of make the trade. The VG system doesn't handle having it all done at the same time very well (i.e. they're likely to select the cost lots you didn't select).
by stlutz
Sat May 02, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum is now back ONLINE!
Replies: 45
Views: 1541

Re: Lost ability to change font size

Ctrl+ and Ctrl- work fine for me.
by stlutz
Sat May 02, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum is now back ONLINE!
Replies: 45
Views: 1541

Re: Forum is now back ONLINE!

Thanks as always for all oif your work.
by stlutz
Fri May 01, 2015 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard vs. DFA when tax efficiency really matters
Replies: 35
Views: 2044

Re: Vanguard vs. DFA when tax efficiency really matters

Do you have significant tax advantaged space? It seems like in your situation it would make more sense to load up your taxable account with something like the Vanguard CA Intermediate Muni fund and put more stocks into tax advantaged. Otherwise, daffyd gave the correct answer above that IJS/VIOV/SLY...
by stlutz
Fri May 01, 2015 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index [Exp.Ratio] now only 0.07%
Replies: 20
Views: 3796

Re: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index [Exp.Ratio] now only 0.

Schwab has responded, shaving one basis point off the ER of its aggregate-bond fund, SCHZ, so now their ER is 0.05%.


M* says it's been .05% since 2013.

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund ... ture=en_US
by stlutz
Fri May 01, 2015 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerages
Replies: 19
Views: 1863

Re: Brokerages

On a trading day, I may need to log into Wellstrade and see if their brokered CD rates are better than at Schwab. Does anybody here have brokerage accounts at multiple brokerages, i.e. Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, Vanguard, Schwab, and be in a position to look up and post comparisons of brokered CD rat...
by stlutz
Fri May 01, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?
Replies: 65
Views: 4710

Re: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?

I've always hated the font and then for 10 glorious minutes on a Friday afternoon it was wonderful....

:P :P :P

(just kidding)
by stlutz
Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Index Fund or Other?
Replies: 19
Views: 2282

Re: Total Bond Index Fund or Other?

I'm referring specifically to a paper that I understand he co-authored. Have you read that paper? Probably, although like you I can't find it at the moment by googling. And I probably shouldn't say that my view is the same as Swedroe's, as I know I one time said that he favored Treasury-only portfo...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding long-term bond to increase rebalancing bouns?
Replies: 11
Views: 744

Re: Holding long-term bond to increase rebalancing bouns?

Correlations change through time. So you don't actually know that EDV will balance out a stock decline or not--the last two times they have, certainly, but that doesn't make for a rule. If rates went up by 3% over the next year, do you think stocks would go up and balance out that massive loss you w...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Index Fund or Other?
Replies: 19
Views: 2282

Re: Total Bond Index Fund or Other?

Isn't Larry's argument to use long-term Treasuries in an equity-heavy portfolio?


I think it depends on when you ask him. :D I think his views on that question have changed over time.
by stlutz
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you buy health insurance these days?
Replies: 42
Views: 2807

Re: How do you buy health insurance these days?

My question is simple: Faced with such an overwhelming range of choices of a complex and expensive product like health insurance is there any way to systematically make a good, optimum selection, without spending days creating a huge database or spreadsheet and feeding into it the coverage, co-pays...

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