Search found 2642 matches

by stlutz
Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comprehensive list of tax loss harvesting partners
Replies: 54
Views: 2472

Re: Comprehensive list of tax loss harvesting partners

Isn't this the same guy who said that the backdoor Roth was illegal? I don't know that "tracking error" is really a part of the case law around wash sales. After all, the rule is that two bonds with maturity dates not that far apart issued by the same company are not substantially identica...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Market Funds vs Long History in slice & dice
Replies: 4
Views: 520

Re: Total Market Funds vs Long History in slice & dice

Having that history provides a great deal of comfort and assurance. Yes, I know past performance is no indicator………but there a sense of security in seeing the actual past performance for an extended period. As we head into retirement, revamping our investments and seeking an 8% average return, 44 y...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it wise to use 100% Vanguard all-in-one funds?
Replies: 41
Views: 3316

Re: Is it wise to use 100% Vanguard all-in-one funds?

I think most of the posts thus far are going in the wrong direction. "Is it wise to use 100% VG all-in-one funds?" The answer is undoubtedly, "Yes!" The posts thus far are obsessing over small-bore issues. The main concerns are saving a lot (check), using low-fee funds (check) an...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs to deal with inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 407

Re: ETFs to deal with inflation

Are you concerned about short-term inflation or long-term inflation? Even nominal bonds of the short-to-intermediate variety will keep up with inflation over time (since rates change in response to changes in expected inflation). They won't do well in the short-term in the case of an unexpected rise...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1387

Re: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?

I've seen a few people observe over years that all positive returns in the market happen between the close and the open. This, price changes during the day net out to zero over time. If that is indeed true, then for this question the answer would be that buying an ETF vs. buying a mutual fund on the...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH conclusion in my situation
Replies: 16
Views: 952

Re: TLH conclusion in my situation

I would probably just wait 30 days.


May need to wait longer if the September dividend in the IRA gets reinvested...
by stlutz
Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?
Replies: 25
Views: 2384

Re: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?

I cannot remember why US markets recovered so quickly. Does anybody remember without going to look it up?


I thought it was because of all the money that came flooding into the market as a result of livesoft (and maybe some others) market timing rebalancing. :D
by stlutz
Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 55
Views: 2484

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

It's critical to understand whether an outperformance claim is based on "risk" or "behavior" (or what portion of the claimed outperformance is attributed to each component). If it's based on risk, then on the one hand it doesn't challenge the efficient market hypothesis. But, on...
by stlutz
Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 55
Views: 2484

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

Just a couple of notes: --The move toward "factor investing" is quite different in terms of its impact on market vs. fundamental value "stock picking." One argument in favor of the value premium has been that active managers actually won't touch real value stocks--the companies t...
by stlutz
Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling/Buying Brokered CDs/individual bonds
Replies: 5
Views: 280

Re: Selling/Buying Brokered CDs/individual bonds

I would just look at the spreads for the CDs that Vanguard actually has bid and ask quotes for. Taking a quick glance, I'm seeing spread anywhere from 2-7%. So, not that good for trading/rebalancing purposes in my view.
by stlutz
Sun Aug 30, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3155

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

Of the returns of REITs 1989-2008, 7.02% came from income ie dividends and average dividend yield was 6.7% over the period. Price apprecation was only 1.72% The vast majority of your returns in these instruments comes from dividends, not price. When you buy these things, you had better be sure that...
by stlutz
Sun Aug 30, 2015 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone buy individual bonds and CDs?
Replies: 32
Views: 2695

Re: Does anyone buy individual bonds and CDs?

Individual treasury bonds yielding up to 0.2-0.3% higher than the official yield curve, and the Vanguard Treasury Bond Funds I assume these were STRIPS/zero-coupon bonds? They will have a higher yield because the maturity=duration with those while duration < maturity for coupon bonds. There are no ...
by stlutz
Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3155

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

Another thing I keep coming back to — and perhaps this is a naive way of thinking — is that there is virtually no Boglehead author (except Jack Bogle, of course) that *doesn't* recommend a dedicated allocation to REITs. Just think about it: Bernstein, Clements, Ferri, Malkiel, Schultheis, Swedroe, ...
by stlutz
Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3155

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

REITs are the one tilt that's talked about here a lot that makes no sense to me. Remember, they are already a part of your total market index fund. So, the question isn't whether you should hold REITs, but but whether you should hold more REITs than a market allocation would dictate. I'm not aware t...
by stlutz
Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Logic Check - Purpose of bonds in MY portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Re: Logic Check - Purpose of bonds in MY portfolio

Both stocks and bonds are priced high right now. If stocks were selling at 1/2 their current valuations, the portion of earnings that the company distributes to you (dividends & buybacks) would be worth twice as much. Stocks have "low" (relative to history) earnings yield now and bonds...
by stlutz
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations
Replies: 14
Views: 853

Re: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations

Thanks for posting the link. The problem I have with this approach is that it focuses solely on one type of risk--that of the market being overpriced. Future returns can be bad for any number of reasons; not just that one. I think the direction it leads is in line with other discussions we've had he...
by stlutz
Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualified dividends percentage for Schwab ETFs
Replies: 2
Views: 213

Re: Qualified dividends percentage for Schwab ETFs

I've never found any historical data on their website. The most recent year is here: https://www.csimfunds.com/public/csim/h ... commentary
by stlutz
Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2102

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

Out of curiosity question: Suppose my income is technically below the poverty level but I otherwise have plenty of assets. And I live in a state that expanded Medicaid. If I want to buy a private health plan, is the insurance company obligated to take me or can they reject me because I'm eligible fo...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2003
Views: 383530

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Actually, whenever I see this thread get bumped I'm reminded that I do miss LBill's posts...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTI - "Market" order type
Replies: 29
Views: 3380

Re: VTI - "Market" order type

I work and do not have the patience to set a limit order and have to keep checking up to see if it filled and if not reorder at a different limit order. I also work and I can't spend my day in front of a trading screen. For liquid ETFs with narrow spreads (usually ones with > $1B AUM), I'll just pl...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tax loss harvesting always worth all the fuss?
Replies: 68
Views: 8489

Re: Is tax loss harvesting always worth all the fuss?

I believe consistent TLH throughout the year can be worth about 0.5%-0.7% per year over an investing career In the first few years, maybe. One thing worth adding is that the benefits of TLH tend to come earlier in one's Boglehead investing lifetime. If you own a lot of shares that your purchased a ...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another TLH question - Are most of you switching back after 30/60 days?
Replies: 27
Views: 2179

Re: Yet another TLH question - Are most of you switching back after 30/60 days?

As has been discussed many times in the past, nobody knows what "substantially identical" actually means when it comes to mutual funds. Is SHCB (Schwab Broad Market) substantially identical to VTI (Vanguard Total Market)? What about exchanging VTI for VOO + VXF? With the robo-advisors push...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which tax-exempt bond fund ??
Replies: 34
Views: 4312

Re: Which tax-exempt bond fund ??

I would vote for the existing IT term fund. Reasons: 1) The VG managers have consistently maintained a very consistent duration of around 5 years for the fund. Additionally, the turnover is generally a little over 10% per year. In short, this is a very consistent fund in terms of its risk profile. T...
by stlutz
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1152

Re: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds

You don't even need to go to the annual report. Just lookup the fund on the VG website and choose the "Price & Performance" tab. Data updated through 7/31!
by stlutz
Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Charitable
Replies: 44
Views: 2803

Re: Fidelity Charitable

While that may be true, YOUR great cause may not be MY great cause. Not looking to start a big fight, but since a few people have pushed back against my comment... Any cause has multiple organizations which further that cause, whether it be educational, environmental, medical, religious, internatio...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you "weight" pre-tax and post-tax money differently when you AA?
Replies: 55
Views: 2345

Re: Should you "weight" pre-tax and post-tax money differently when you AA?

I use "equal location" (i.e. the same asset allocation) in each of my accounts, so I don't have to worry about such issues. :happy
by stlutz
Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 4668

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

If I was 22 and starting brand new today, I think I would go with market weight as that best reflects the world we live in. However, I've personally been 1/3 international for about 20 years now and decided once again not to change although I thought about it earlier in the year based on the discuss...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Charitable
Replies: 44
Views: 2803

Re: Fidelity Charitable

As an aside, I'm personally not a fan of using DAFs to push off making donations decades into the future. There are too many great causes that need help now--why wait?
by stlutz
Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Charitable
Replies: 44
Views: 2803

Re: Fidelity Charitable

People prefer the Fidelity one to the Schwab one? Is there a big difference? I've used Schwab for several years and am very happy. A couple of years back I looked at switching to Fido because they had lower cost-investment options, but opted not to because of a) intertia, and b) according to their ...
by stlutz
Sun Aug 16, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short-Term Investment Grade Corporate Bond Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Re: Short-Term Investment Grade Corporate Bond Funds

One note that is worth adding on the VG fund (VFSTX/VFSUX) is that it did trail its benchmark by 3 or 4 percentage points in 2008. So, what you see there is a combination of what the asset class did as well as the risks of active management not working out.
by stlutz
Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Delay with Vanguard new index muni fund
Replies: 1
Views: 381

Re: Delay with Vanguard new index muni fund

Has it been released yet or is there a new estimated date of release?


No and no. Keep in mind that several years back VG was going to introduce a whole slate of muni index ETFs and it never happened. On this subject I would treat it as vaporware until it actually happens.
by stlutz
Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 908

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

It is reasonable for investors to expect, on average, for a minimum volatility fund to outperform the overall global market in sharp downturns and trail the market in strong bull markets. Yes. For the short-to-intermediate term, past volatility has historically predicated future volatility very well.
by stlutz
Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does higher volatility make long-term bonds + stocks better than intermediate-term bonds + stocks?
Replies: 54
Views: 3719

Re: Does higher volatility make long-term bonds + stocks better than intermediate-term bonds + stocks?

stlutz, if you'd be so kind, and so that I don't have to do the picking myself and bias the results, would you state the year ranges of the alleged "significantly positive" and "significantly negative" correlations?


Sure. Let's go with 1931 - 1964 and 1965 - 1997.
by stlutz
Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does higher volatility make long-term bonds + stocks better than intermediate-term bonds + stocks?
Replies: 54
Views: 3719

Re: Does higher volatility make long-term bonds + stocks better than intermediate-term bonds + stocks?

One of the things that I think nisiprius skips over is that it's somewhat misleading to say that bonds have 0 correlation with stocks. Averaged over 100 years, yes. But there have been decades long stretches where the correlation has been significantly positive and the same when it has been signific...
by stlutz
Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does higher volatility make long-term bonds + stocks better than intermediate-term bonds + stocks?
Replies: 54
Views: 3719

Re: Does higher volatility make long-term bonds + stocks better than intermediate-term bonds + stocks?

A risk-free asset has zero risk, i.e. the variance of the outcome equals zero. So what is the risk-free rate? Obviously it depends on the holding period. For a 3-month holding period, a risk-free asset is a 3-month T-bill. You will get an exact amount of money in 3 months; variance of outcome is ze...
by stlutz
Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can a bill dispute ruin our credit?
Replies: 30
Views: 2676

Re: Can a bill dispute ruin our credit?

If we continue with this dispute, is it possible that we'll take a hit to our credit rating?


I'm actually curious on the answer to this question regardless of whether the OP is the right or not. Suppose it does end up on his credit report. Does that lower one's FICO by 10 points or by 200?
by stlutz
Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE Capital Bank now Goldman Sachs Bank?
Replies: 5
Views: 837

Re: GE Capital Bank now Goldman Sachs Bank?

What if I currently have $250k in Goldman Sachs brokered CDs and also have $250k in GE brokered CDs? I assume you are somehow grandfathered in to having the full protection for the entire $500k. Can anybody verify? Looks like it to me: https://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/news/cnsum10/having_dep...
by stlutz
Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 99
Views: 7191

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

What are the margin requirements for selling naked Treasury puts? Obviously how to handle that must be considered since you can't use the money invested in CDs at another institution for this purpose. The other issue is that CD rates and Treasury rates don't really move in tandem (with Treasury rate...
by stlutz
Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a practical, low-cost implementation of Momentum + Value strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 947

Re: Is there a practical, low-cost implementation of Momentum + Value strategies

I don't know much about MTUM at all other than that it exists, but a quick check shows apparently negative value (-0.26 since inception, with a Morningstar style box near the corner of large growth)? If I read the OP correctly, he is looking for two funds: a) a value fund, and b) a momentum fund, a...
by stlutz
Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 99
Views: 7191

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

This whole yield curve return thing can be made overcomplicated. (And I've never done that myself over the years). A fund with a 4-5 year duration is doing something very similar to buying new 10 year bonds and holding to maturity. In that case, your return is simply the interest rates on bonds at t...
by stlutz
Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a practical, low-cost implementation of Momentum + Value strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 947

Re: Is there a practical, low-cost implementation of Momentum + Value strategies

MTUM (the iShares Momentum ETF) cost 15 basis points and has $800M AUM. No compelling reason to look elsewhere than I can see.
by stlutz
Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 99
Views: 7191

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

Are you simply saying that we don't know if the yield curve will maintain it's upward slope (signifying continued term risk premium) or whether it will flatten by the time we are ready to sell our 3 year treasuries and repurchase 5 year treasuries (for example)? The theory Kevin references is based...
by stlutz
Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Popcorn ceilings
Replies: 7
Views: 1118

Re: Popcorn ceilings

Do they look really dirty? If not, they've probably been painted multiple times over the years which makes it less likely that they will flake off and so forth.
by stlutz
Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take the money and run? Buyout offer
Replies: 27
Views: 3514

Re: Take the money and run? Buyout offer

Your pension gives you 31K so that leaves 44K to make up. You have $785K in total assets. A 4 percent withdraw rate would give you another approximately 31K a year. Most people don't recommend a withdrawal rate higher than 4 percent. Totally retiring may be tight. How much will your spousal and tot...
by stlutz
Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to consider when determining settlement figure in auto accident
Replies: 8
Views: 954

Re: What to consider when determining settlement figure in auto accident

That's a fair point. But remember my lawyer is on a (public) university's payroll Then he's not your lawyer. He's the university's layer. If you're paying the lawyer (i.e. he'll get a portion of any money collected) then he's your lawyer. You can generally have an initial consultation with a lawyer...
by stlutz
Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why hold corporate bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4429

Re: Why hold corporate bonds?

What does your bond portfolio look like currently? Do you only hold treasuries?


I'm heavily overweight, but not exclusive (mainly because of the bonds chosen by the target retirement fund in my 401K).
by stlutz
Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why hold corporate bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4429

Re: Why hold corporate bonds?

I think the backtesting actually is very useful in this case because it validates an argument that you can make theoretically. When stocks turn down in a serious way, which bonds do you think would do the best? Corporate bonds are in some ways exposed to the same risk as stocks. If it looks like the...
by stlutz
Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion directly from 401K to Roth IRA?
Replies: 19
Views: 853

Re: Roth conversion directly from 401K to Roth IRA?

How is a Roth conversion advantageous at all in the OP's situation? Paying 28% now vs. 28% later produces the same result. And I would bet that at least part of the RMDs would be at a lower rate, say 25%.
by stlutz
Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]
Replies: 57
Views: 4677

Re: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]

One of the interesting things about the smallcap "premium" is how much the questioning of it has started up after a long-period of small cap *outpeformance.* Usually you see a lot of additional interest in asset classes/sub-classes after such outperformance, with a lot of academic/sophisti...

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