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Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

I always like Rick's annual update if only because he puts it out there as "my forecast" as opposed to "the expected return." That is always refreshing. The most interesting thing I'm noting is that he only estimates a premium for small/value of .8% per year over large cap. That ...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 60
Views: 5542

Re: mobal.com phones

I used one for a couple of trips to Europe. No issues--I made a few calls/sent some texts w/o issue and the charges showed up on my credit card as expected.

A couple of years ago I switched over to using Truphone as the rates were better and they gave me a US #.
by stlutz
Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: mobal.com phones
Replies: 5
Views: 366

Re: New to Bogleheads - TD vs. Vanguard, General Guidance

Where you hold your assets should be one of the least important decisions you make. If you are happy with TD and you don't mind trading ETFs (since you've traded stocks, I assume you aren't), then by all means continue to use them. If you don't like TD or if you prefer some of the features of mutual...
by stlutz
Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Bogleheads - TD vs. Vanguard, General Guidance
Replies: 3
Views: 450

Re: help w/ margin account

The differences between your available funds and margin requirement is that line item, "SMA". Here is what it means:

http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/66
by stlutz
Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help w/ margin account
Replies: 6
Views: 463

Re: Treasuries vs. Treasury Funds?

As others have hinted at, if you are going to go the individual treasury route, you should use a broker that allows you to buy *and sell* T-bonds/bills/notes commission free. The three I'm aware of that provide this service are Fidelity, Vanguard, and E*Trade. Now that brokers have to track cost bas...
by stlutz
Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasuries vs. Treasury Funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 754

Re: International stock dividend cut. Why?

It should mean fewer people have to fill out a form 1116 next year to get the foreign tax credit.
by stlutz
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock "dividend variability" Why?
Replies: 37
Views: 2916

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

Anyone here have thoughts about SPLV (SPDR's take on this theme)? Over its history it has delivered on its promise. It was the first of these funds to market. Performance-wise it has been very similar to USMV (my personal favorite in this space). It's ER is .25%, which is the main reason I don't us...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2561

Re: International stock dividend cut. Why?

Last year Vodafone sold its stake in Verizon Wireless, which resulted in the largest diviend ever paid by a public company. So, the 2014 amount was an outlier.
by stlutz
Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock "dividend variability" Why?
Replies: 37
Views: 2916

Re: "Looming Crisis" in Corporate Bond Fund Liquidity

The municipal bond market has priced in reduced liquidity by providing higher yields. Before 2008, muni yields were almost always lower than Treasuries; now they are generally higher. Liquidity is the primary driver of this: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2489190 The linked artic...
by stlutz
Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Looming Crisis" in Corporate Bond Fund Liquidity
Replies: 16
Views: 2574

Re: Saturna HSA: ETF or Mutual Fund

I don't have an account with them, but this thread may be helpful:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=135513
by stlutz
Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Saturna HSA: ETF or Mutual Fund
Replies: 2
Views: 199

Re: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees

It's probably worth looking at volatility and it's impact on "sequence of returns" risk from a wholistic perspective. If your equity allocation is high enough that the currency risk of international stocks matters in any significant way, then the issue is probably too much in equities as o...
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees
Replies: 26
Views: 2297

Re: Bond Funds

I realized I needed to ... move my Bond investments to my tax deferred accounts. Keep in mind that the book was written when interest rates were much higher. According to the wiki article on tax efficient fund placement (http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_tax-efficient_fund_placement), lo...
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 967

Re: Retiring. Looking for advice on 401K rollover

Let's back up a minute and ask--why do you think you need to roll the 401K over? What is wrong with the 401K plan itself?
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring. Looking for advice on 401K rollover
Replies: 6
Views: 698

Re: Company 401K roll over to Vanguard/Fidelity?

I don't see a reason to roll it over.


+1

Rollovers are a good idea when you have a craptacular 401K with only high fee funds. If you have low cost funds available, then there is no need to rollover and in many cases it can be a bad idea.
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401K roll over to Vanguard/Fidelity?
Replies: 7
Views: 848

Re: Merrill Edge Question

"at most any brokerage", what would be an example of a problem that could not be resolved? Any legitimate problem should get resolved. Almost all do. Some firms resolve more quickly. Examples of more complex problems that occur that have been discussed on this forum in the past: --"I...
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge Question
Replies: 21
Views: 1532

Re: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance

What about the Swedroe strategy of holding long term treasuries because they are more negatively correlated with equities and will provide a better ballast during market crashes? My understanding (others can correct me if I'm wrong) is that he recommends this in cases where one holds a very high eq...
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance
Replies: 9
Views: 1132

Re: Switching bond holdings from VG: seems smart, but am war

SCHR and SCHP are the best options in their particular segments, regardless of where your assets are held.
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching bond holdings from VG: seems smart, but am wary
Replies: 4
Views: 859

Re: Undoing my Merrill Edge mess

Question for the OP: Are you close to any kind of a tax bracket cutoff? That is, what if you just sold everything you have, took the tax hit now, and reinvested in the new funds. Spreading out the sales is only an advantage if you can pay significantly less in capital gains taxes by doing so.
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Undoing my Merrill Edge mess
Replies: 6
Views: 731

Re: Undoing my Merrill Edge mess

ETF trades are free at Merill Edge but not all mutual fund trades. However, trades on load funds are actually free in many cases.
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Undoing my Merrill Edge mess
Replies: 6
Views: 731

Re: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance

Because the yield curve currently has a good upward slope out to 6 years or so, the Int. Term. option is going to look better. In a case where it's only steep out to 2 years or so, the barbell will likely calculate out better. So, the intermediate term option looks better right now, but that's not a...
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance
Replies: 9
Views: 1132

Re: Merrill Edge Question

Has anybody here actually had a problem at Merrill Edge? If so, was the issue resolved and how long did it take? My own view is that problems at most any brokerage are rare, but how they get resolved seems to vary more between them.
by stlutz
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge Question
Replies: 21
Views: 1532

Re: Rising Interest Rates and Vanguard's Prime Money Market

1% should do the trick. You lose some from expenses but you gain some from the fund's use of higher yielding assets aside from Treasuries.
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rising Interest Rates and Vanguard's Prime Money Market
Replies: 3
Views: 578

Re: Restaurant tipping

In other countries, there often is no tipping tradition at all or a service charge is included on the bill. Frankly, this would be my preference in the US, as well. If the wait-staff rely on the tip, make it part of the bill. +1 Bottom line is I'm better off than 99.87% of the people working at the...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurant tipping
Replies: 190
Views: 10608

Re: Merrill Edge Question

I would also do a search on Vanguard customer service as well--not all is sunshine and happiness there either. That's not to rag on Vanguard as this forum seems to the place that people go when the want to make any type of complaint about VG. For that matter search on Fidelity and Schwab as well. Th...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge Question
Replies: 21
Views: 1532

Re: Where do I learn how much one SHOULD spend on a home?

Around here I think this is generally considered the best rent vs. buy calculator out there:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014 ... 0002&abg=1
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do I learn how much one SHOULD spend on a home?
Replies: 64
Views: 5047

Re: Where do I learn how much one SHOULD spend on a home?

I wouldn't recommend buying a house until you have a very stable job and/or get engaged. If the OP is making $150K per year, that means his/her skills are in demand by other employers. And on the marriage front, it would make more financial sense to buy the house after the divorce than after the ma...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do I learn how much one SHOULD spend on a home?
Replies: 64
Views: 5047

Re: Where do I learn how much one SHOULD spend on a home?

Just to be a contrarian--you can't wish that housing prices in your area were different than they are. If it costs a lot to buy somewhere, it also costs a lot to rent there. The reality is that you are probably going to have a higher housing cost/income ratio than most of us here prefer. That's just...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do I learn how much one SHOULD spend on a home?
Replies: 64
Views: 5047

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

Certainly any part of the economy dependent on long-term loans would suffer in a deflationary environment, since the dollars being paid back are more valuable than the ones that were borrowed. We know from the 2008 recession that home prices can fall and deflation would, in all likelihood, take the...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3765

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

I hold a small position in USMV. A couple of years ago, it traded at a 20% premium to the market. Now it trades at a 10% premium. This decline in relative valuations seems to go against the notion that people are "pouring" into such stocks. Low volatility is a large cap stock strategy. It ...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2561

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

Interesting post. The 1970s had some additional very specific things going on that are worth noting: 1) zero productivity growth, which means that wage increases had to lead to price increases. (Was the large growth of the labor force related to the lack of productivity growth?) 2) The energy crisis...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3765

Re: Doctor's office requires credit card on file

What percentage of doctor visits do people at least want to schedule with less than 48 hours notice? Quite a few, I think. I can see a charge for a no-show, but this 48 hour cancel nonsense sounds like double-dipping to me (get the cancel fee and get paid for the replacement appointment). I for one ...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doctor's office requires credit card on file
Replies: 55
Views: 2941

Re: American Express joins Schwab to introduce new credit ca

Perhaps the cash back percentage will be based on the amount of cash in one's Schwab Robo-Advisor account? :wink:
by stlutz
Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: American Express joins Schwab to introduce new credit cards
Replies: 3
Views: 1154

Re: An oddball portfolio suggestion: TR Income + equities

Isn't it mostly among equities that you are looking for the frequent rebalancing? If you're really wanting to try this approach, I would replicate your asset allocation in taxable and tax advantages (at least the stock/bond split). But, overall I think you're getting too excited by the auto-rebalanc...
by stlutz
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An oddball portfolio suggestion: TR Income + equities
Replies: 5
Views: 629

Re: Proactively replace water heater?

So this ended up being an expensive thread. I just re-carpeted my basement and this thread convinced me that a proactive water heater replacement would be a good idea. :happy
by stlutz
Sat Mar 14, 2015 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Proactively replace water heater?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds

Perhaps the key would be to figure out how Vanguard rebalances their "Moderate Growth Composite Index". The LS fund pretty consistently trails this benchmark by a little more than its expense ratio, which suggests that there is an even better ideal than what the fund itself is doing. For e...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2968

Re: Oneplus One phone- experience?

I'm also getting frustrated waiting for them to roll out their version of Android Lollipop.


Based on what Lollipop did to my Nexus 7, I'd consider this a feature and not a bug.
by stlutz
Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oneplus One phone- experience?
Replies: 19
Views: 1741

Re: Finra raps UBS, Vanguard with fines totaling $850,000

Upon further review it's not a bad as it looks. What happened is payroll didn't inform compliance when an "adviser" had her wages garnished. Compliance is supposed to investigate all leans and garnishments to see if they require reporting and listing. This is the report on Vanguard; what ...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finra raps UBS, Vanguard with fines totaling $850,000
Replies: 23
Views: 2744

Re: Nominal interest rates rebound earlier than Fed funds, e

Rates have been volatile in 2015 but they really haven't changed much overall. A small change upward in the Fed Funds rate in the second half of the year is already baked in. A major change in rates would come from something unexpected happening (a sudden surge in wage inflation or, on the another h...
by stlutz
Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nominal interest rates rebound earlier than Fed funds, etc.
Replies: 2
Views: 354

Re: Bond fund or CD Ladder

Current rates are: 0.6, 0.95, 1.3, (1.7) and 2.05%. (The 4-year is an estimate as it's not listed in the CD quick search.) The average is 1.3%, close to the current yield of STIG. Now without going into the debate as to whether interest rates will rise soon, which of these approaches - continue in ...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund or CD Ladder
Replies: 16
Views: 1948

Re: What are some common misconceptions found in this forum?

Livesoft knows what he's talking about.


I wouldn't say that. Perhaps you could just put on the list:

--Wells Fargo is a good brokerage

:P
by stlutz
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some common misconceptions found in this forum?
Replies: 207
Views: 16640

Re: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Ret

Adding to mosu's comments, the point of the series of articles that this was a part of was to critique PE-10 based market timing strategies!
by stlutz
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns
Replies: 19
Views: 3180

Re: What are some common misconceptions found in this forum?

--Buying individual bonds is almost impossibly difficult and you're sure to get screwed. (Note, I'm not saying that individual bonds are better than a fund, but the apocalyptic warnings about individual bonds tend to go over the top). --That more risk = higher expected return as opposed to higher po...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some common misconceptions found in this forum?
Replies: 207
Views: 16640

Re: Bond credit risk is unique from equity risk

Thanks for the share Rick! While the paper is quantitative in nature, from a qualitative perspective, the two would seem to be different risks. Whether you can pay me back next year with interest (what a fixed income investor cares about) is a different question from how much your income will go up ...
by stlutz
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond credit risk is unique from equity risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1238

Re: Cost Basis for Transferred Covered Shares

Does anyone have experience with this type of move at other firms like Fido or Schwab? I think it would definitely be helpful to know whether VG is unusual or this is the way it is done in accordance with the rules.
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cost Basis for Transferred Covered Shares
Replies: 10
Views: 785

Re: Retires: How much do you rely on investment income?

Thanks everyone for the responses. In discussions about asset allocation for accumulators, we often observe that the question of whether to be 80/20 or 50/50 is dominated by other factors like one's savings rate, investment expenses, and whether they practice adverse market timing. In short, any rea...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: How much do you rely on investment income?
Replies: 31
Views: 4073

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

The usual definition of "expected return" is that is is the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes. I've never seen anybody do anything remotely close to that. Saying that earnings yield=expected return or dividend yield + earnings growth rate = expected return are reasonabl...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22864

Re: Muni Bonds in Taxable account

The two options that people here use the most are: --Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt --Baird Intermediate Municipal Bond Fund (Institutional Shares). The former is the cheapest regardless of whether you are using Investor or Admiral Shares. The later is used by some because it is low-enough co...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bonds in Taxable account
Replies: 4
Views: 597

Re: Vanguard et al disintermediated?

Why do I need a manager to do this for me? I can do it myself already. You can get 30 free trades/month at Merrill Edge or pay $1/trade at Interactive Brokers and build a well-diversified individual stock portfolio. Nowadays brokers have to track cost basis for you and you can aggregate all of your ...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard et al disintermediated?
Replies: 39
Views: 2686

Re: roomy car for transporting elderly with walkers, etc

I think there are tradeoffs. My observations from when I was temporarily using a wheelchair and walker as a result of serious accident a few years back: --Bigger is usually not better in terms of getting in and out. Getting in and out of a Corolla is 10x easier than a Town Car when a walker is invol...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roomy car for transporting elderly with walkers, etc
Replies: 15
Views: 950

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

I rigged the answers to try and get a 60/40 portfolio and it had me with 11% in cash and only 2% in US Treasuries. The fixed income portion of their allocations is just weird/bad.
by stlutz
Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 268
Views: 19327
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