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Re: Which stock fund is the least volatile in bear market?

I'm a bit surprised by your surprise that a fund designed to track the market - like the total market fund - would - track the market - both up and down. I think it's futile trying to predict what segment of the market may perform better relative to the rest in the next crisis. Here's why: * 2008 fi...
by stevewolfe
Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which stock fund is the least volatile in bear market?
Replies: 13
Views: 1290

Re: Does anyone use the 50-day or 200-day moving average?

No, I don't look at 50 / 100 day averages, Shiller P/E, etc.
by stevewolfe
Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use the 50-day or 200-day moving average?
Replies: 12
Views: 852

Re: What do you drive, and why?

2009 Toyota Corolla bought new in 2008. 121k miles. Reliable, economical, safe enough for me.
2005 Subaru Forester bought new in 2004. 168k miles. Super safe, wife likes it, economical enough.
by stevewolfe
Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you drive, and why?
Replies: 249
Views: 24148

Re: What is a Boglehead?

Cost Matters Period
by stevewolfe
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a Boglehead?
Replies: 55
Views: 2668

Re: Who still have Cable TV?

Who still have Cable TV? $100 bucks a month. What a waste. We do. Our cable costs us $0.50 cents more per month (e.g., $20.50 all in taxes, fees, etc) than the $20 surcharge would be if we turned it off entirely and kept only the broadband internet service. For that 50 cents a month we get 23 chann...
by stevewolfe
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who still have Cable TV?
Replies: 63
Views: 2776

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

I don't follow age in bonds as it's too much equity for me. I'm 43, wife 41 and we've been 35% stocks - 40% stocks and the rest in fixed income for nearly 20 years. We plan to keep that allocation for the duration. We sleep well at night and just save more. Like Taylor says, there is more than one r...
by stevewolfe
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3675

Re: Can SiriusXM Radio damage my credit rating?

mac_guy wrote:Well, see I never technically "used" the service. I haven't tuned to a satellite station in months.


Irrelevant. Pay your debt.
by stevewolfe
Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can SiriusXM Radio damage my credit rating?
Replies: 15
Views: 1020

Re: Active Stock Investing vs. Active Real Estate Investing

A friend of mine is landlord on the side. I have observed a good bit of stress in discussions over the years, along with frustration of things outside his control (local code / ordinance changes). Recently he was on a bit of a tirade because a municipality where he owned properties was considering a...
by stevewolfe
Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Stock Investing vs. Active Real Estate Investing
Replies: 2
Views: 348

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

Treasury rates have declined over the past six months, so I doubt savings bonds rates will rise. My guess: EE bonds: 0.1% I bonds: 0% +1. This is my thinking as well - effective rate on I at 0% (after correcting since it can't be negative) and EE bonds staying at 0.1%. I hope they don't mess with t...
by stevewolfe
Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2206

Re: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming

riptide wrote:Dr. Ron Paul , politician for many years, and was a possible presidential candidate says a crash is coming similar to 2008 or worse. Anybody know anything about this ??

No and neither does he...
by stevewolfe
Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming
Replies: 71
Views: 8373

Re: How does this site make money?

Also note the Amazon link in the upper right. If you click through to Amazon, a small referral fee is paid back to the site (based on your purchases) to help defray costs.
by stevewolfe
Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:15 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: How does this site make money?
Replies: 39
Views: 5410

Re: Looking at buying bonds - PTRRX, vanguard?

Why that fund in particular? What makes you want to consider this change now? It would seem that the stocks are doing the heavy lifting in the portfolio, 10% in cash vs. 2% in cash and 8% in PTRRX isn't going to be that big a difference in total return. At 90% stock possibly long term treasuries wou...
by stevewolfe
Fri Apr 10, 2015 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking at buying bonds - PTRRX, vanguard?
Replies: 2
Views: 301

Re: Target Retirement 2015 has Bonds = Age - 15%?

You pick the target fund based on your desired asset allocation (in my opinion) not based on the year in the name closest to your retirement.
by stevewolfe
Fri Apr 10, 2015 5:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement 2015 has Bonds = Age - 15%?
Replies: 3
Views: 532

Re: "The Real Point of Active Investing"

Do you agree that using the phrase “The goal of active investing is to outperform the market” is "one-dimensional" thinking? Yes, to some degree. When I started investing in the late 90's I invested in T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) and have held this fund ever since. It's the...
by stevewolfe
Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Real Point of Active Investing"
Replies: 10
Views: 1637

Re: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay A

Let me ask you something - have you roamed the corridors of any tech company worth their salt ? How many > 50yr olds do you see ? At 3/4 mega corp IT companies I've been in (all 3 Fortune 500), there is an annual purge of anyone > 50. Come January/Feb there is a letter that HR issues offering 6 mon...
by stevewolfe
Wed Apr 08, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay Area
Replies: 117
Views: 11067

Re: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay A

What would a 50yr old techie guy do in Kansas, Oklahoma or Nebraska ? I confess I don't have the foggiest clue. Never been to those places. 7 years short of your hypothetical techie, and in Pennsylvania instead of Kansas, Oklahoma or Nebraska, but I'll swing the bat nonetheless... I have 21 years e...
by stevewolfe
Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailed it! $223,199/yr: magic# for making it in SF Bay Area
Replies: 117
Views: 11067

Re: How many of you invest in individual stocks?

My last individual stock trade was in 1999.
by stevewolfe
Sun Mar 29, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest in individual stocks?
Replies: 70
Views: 4887

Re: New Orleans Destinations

My wife and I enjoyed the Laura Plantation when we visited New Orleans, it's about 50 miles or so up the river road from New Orleans. We also enjoyed the World War II Museum (we were there on Memorial Day). We had a great morning riding the trolley from one end to the other through the garden distri...
by stevewolfe
Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Orleans Destinations
Replies: 21
Views: 1487

Re: Fed to Gradually Increase Interest Rates

ncole1 wrote:It's maybe because America is in debt to our eyeballs...


These types of comments will get the thread locked / deleted...
by stevewolfe
Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Gradually Increase Interest Rates
Replies: 6
Views: 969

Re: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"

I think the problem is your data range. Start from 1926 and the SCV premium is clearer. See this topic: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9445 Small cap value returns from 1926 to somewhere in the early 80's are, to put it bluntly, hard to believe. There are so many problems with the ...
by stevewolfe
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"
Replies: 14
Views: 2188

Re: How Do You Watch Television?

Poll is flawed. Why should we select cable just because we have a $16 per month cable package to save the cable company from raising the cost of our internet service by $20? Why should I cut the cord in that case? Poll needs more realistic options.
by stevewolfe
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Do You Watch Television?
Replies: 81
Views: 5893

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Equities will very likely not only keep you from losing money to inflation, they will also make you money over and above the inflation rate. TIPS won't do that. Based on today's real yield curve, but that wasn't the case 10 years ago and I don't know where the real yield curve will be in a year, 5 ...
by stevewolfe
Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 14630

Re: Just cut my cable bill...

We reduced our cable dramatically almost 5 years ago. We have Comcast. We kept the first 23 or so channels, which now cost around $16 a month + internet service. We have Netflix for $7.99 a month, Amazon Prime (I mentally allocate $4 a month to streaming). We tried Sling TV for a week - i like that ...
by stevewolfe
Sun Mar 08, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just cut my cable bill...
Replies: 58
Views: 5680

Re: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

I'm more so just wanting to know why the Total Stock Market fund is so highly touted. However, since it may be a valuable piece of information, I'm in my late 20's so I have a ultra long-term investing horizon, hence maybe the reason I'm favoring small cap more than the typical investor. Some peopl...
by stevewolfe
Sun Mar 08, 2015 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX)
Replies: 11
Views: 2662

Re: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?

Do you need the money in July or soon? If it's a long term investment, just put the money to work. If you have concerns, break it into 6 pieces and invest 1/6 a month or whatever makes sense in your mind. Good luck.
by stevewolfe
Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?
Replies: 17
Views: 1180

Re: Get your ammo before they are gone

There is some ban on one type of .223 (m855) that most people don't use and this limited ban is causing a return of panic buy. I don't need anything since I don't shoot anymore but I figure I give folks heads up in case they don't have TV or cable service to catch the news. This doesn't affect me b...
by stevewolfe
Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Get your ammo before they are gone
Replies: 12
Views: 1399

Re: Get your ammo before they are gone

Why? Just curious.
by stevewolfe
Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Get your ammo before they are gone
Replies: 12
Views: 1399

Re: Wife tired of saving...

I don't really have much advice for you. But this line kinda irked me for some reason. +1 - know thy self. My advice would be not to let them know what you have in the first place. I'd imagine it's these kinds of comments that have eroded, to some degree, your wife's perspective on saving. Maybe yo...
by stevewolfe
Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife tired of saving...
Replies: 203
Views: 20142

Re: Foodsaver use

We use an attachment for ours along with Ball widemouth jars to prepare soup for freezing. We make large pots of veggie and bean soup and freeze 15 or so jars each time. We also make large pans of lasagna and vacuum seal meals. This works great for a quick diner, throw the frozen pouch in boiling wa...
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Foodsaver use
Replies: 27
Views: 1709

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

Crushtheturtle wrote:You can't use these funds to "set and forget" if they continually change the allocation. They are useless for all but the least involved investor.

Bingo. :beer
by stevewolfe
Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 233
Views: 20867

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

And this is why I don't use these funds sad to say. I want to make the decision when these changes are made. Seems like there is fiddling going on every few years... Pass.
by stevewolfe
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 233
Views: 20867

Re: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX

The underlying investments are slightly different. For example, if you look at the 10 year MPT statistics at Morningstar.com, you see the following: VBTLX - R Squared: 99.03; Beta: 1.01; Alpha: -0.05; Traynor Ratio: 3.33 PBDIX - R Squared: 99.08; Beta: 1.00; Alpha: -0.05; Traynor Ratio: 3.32 Excuse ...
by stevewolfe
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX
Replies: 23
Views: 1370

Re: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX

Yes it was following the same strategy then. I haven't noticed much in the way of changes over the years in the prospectus. If their strategy changes going forward, I'd expect to know that from the prospectus.
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 21, 2015 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX
Replies: 23
Views: 1370

Re: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX

When the world faced financial armegeddon in 2008 and 2009, VBTLX returned 5.15% and 6.04%. Contrast with PBDIX which returned 5.44% and 6.63%. Both did their jobs to provide a ballast to a portfolio.
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 21, 2015 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX
Replies: 23
Views: 1370

Re: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX

I own both of these funds and have been pleased with both. Return on $10k since PBDIX inception vs VBTLX (2000) is separated by $81 - with VBTLX ahead. I like PBDIX for the money I have with T. Rowe Price. The charts of these two seem to move in lock step.
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Bond Index (PBDIX) and Vanguard Bond VBTLX
Replies: 23
Views: 1370

Re: Commiting NEW cash to market

Do you honestly never update your IPS and asset allocation? You just blindly keep it the same regardless of the facts on the ground? Why yes I do. Annually with my wife. It's not a perfect science - sliding equity exposure up or down by 10% (for example) doesn't seem to move the needle much over ti...
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commiting NEW cash to market
Replies: 31
Views: 2254

Re: Commiting NEW cash to market

I'm a firm believer that it is impossible to pick market tops or bottoms. However, I also believe that you don't turn off your common sense. To me, common sense dictates you don't buy equities with cash after a tripling of equities over six years. I'm a firm believer that people always pick a data ...
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commiting NEW cash to market
Replies: 31
Views: 2254

Re: rank order fixed income options

letsgobobby wrote:CDs would involve me transferring my Roth IRA from Vanguard which I don't want to do. The 529 stable value option is intriguing.


Have you considered buying brokered CD's at Vanguard in your Roth IRA (would need to be a brokerage type account)?
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rank order fixed income options
Replies: 14
Views: 1126

Re: Dave Ramsey says you shouldn't own bonds?

10 year treasuries are trading for less than 2% with inflation near that level. 10 year TIPs are trading for all of 0.2%. That's bigger than expense ratios for most funds. Bonds have been on a broad rally for over 30 years, with zero chance that it will continue much longer. So yes; Bonds and Bond ...
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says you shouldn't own bonds?
Replies: 64
Views: 9582

Re: The Emergency Fund Revisited

I haven't eliminated my bank account and you didn't specifically ask for other opinions in the OP, so feel free to ignore... :beer Is having a Vanguard account and a savings account really a big deal such that simplifying is worth considering? If the value of your your assets is X times your emergen...
by stevewolfe
Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Emergency Fund Revisited
Replies: 20
Views: 2012

Re: Mariotta's Gone-Fishing Portfolio

I'm struggling with why you'd want to avoid Euro currency countries (along with some non-Euro countries like the UK) and Japan? There are high quality companies in those two areas and some of the largest export nations in the world. Why would you not want exposure to those businesses?
by stevewolfe
Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marotta's Gone-Fishing Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1559

Re: Mariotta's Gone-Fishing Portfolio

stemikger wrote:13 funds is considered simplicity?


Glad I wasn't the only one thinking that reading fund after fund... < 5% allocations are most likely a waste of time.
by stevewolfe
Sat Jan 24, 2015 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marotta's Gone-Fishing Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1559

Re: Flagship financial planner advice?

Not every spouse is going to want to manage themselves with spreadsheets available on Bogleheads Wiki. THIS. And even if they did manage the spreadsheet, it's a whole other animal to actually DO what the spreadsheet says to do - e.g., have the confidence to go the site and sell X and buy Y. My advi...
by stevewolfe
Sat Jan 24, 2015 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flagship financial planner advice?
Replies: 54
Views: 5488

Re: 5.6% stable value fund - what allocation?

0% - too good to be true in my opinion... My stable value fund with Vanguard is 1.98%, my wife's is 2.87%. Your rate is much higher and I wouldn't trust it frankly.
by stevewolfe
Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5.6% stable value fund - what allocation?
Replies: 29
Views: 2655

Re: Best Book To Learn R Programming

The Johns Hopkins courses in R offered on Coursera (free) are great. I've taken this class (completed 100% with distinction), it's very good and called "Computing for Data Analysis". The assignments are realistic and quite interesting. Highly recommended and now part of a certification tr...
by stevewolfe
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Book To Learn R Programming
Replies: 32
Views: 3467

Re: How low could the 10 year go?

In in the case of the Swiss didn't they, on certain accounts, decrease the interest rate to -0.75% today as well (yes, that is negative 75 basis points)? Which would be an advantage to holding an asset paying 0% vs. -0.75% per year...
by stevewolfe
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low could the 10 year go?
Replies: 16
Views: 1522

Re: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?

I've noticed some "weirdness" with the way Vanguard vs. Morningstar have reported the yield of the Short term fund admiral shares (e.g., VTAPX). Today, Morningstar has an SEC yield of 0.07% while Vanguard is reporting 0.34% SEC yield for the same fund - which is ODD because the SEC yield r...
by stevewolfe
Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 3519

Re: Quick question about Vanguard Total Stock mkt index

A simple question belied by complexity in portfolio construction... consider... You may choose to go the route of TSM + small cap or TSM + small cap value, which is a popular combination in some parts here. Let's say you do this in a 50/50 combination for your equities (leaving out fixed income and ...
by stevewolfe
Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick question about Vanguard Total Stock mkt index
Replies: 8
Views: 680

Re: No surprise CD rates from Penfed

Yep, I checked as well... too bad...
by stevewolfe
Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No surprise CD rates from Penfed
Replies: 4
Views: 1271

Re: Bonus how much do you spend vs save?

For years I've taken $100 from the bonus to use to take my wife for diner and invested the rest. Works for us.
by stevewolfe
Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonus how much do you spend vs save?
Replies: 50
Views: 5121
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