Search found 1077 matches

by steve roy
Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Internet driven Attention Deficit Disorder
Replies: 4
Views: 165

Re: Internet driven Attention Deficit Disorder

I think many (me, included) spend way too much time on the internet.

I think if a benevolent, caring God limited all Her creatures to ninety minutes per day of internet use, the planet would be a happier, better ordered place. With a higher collective IQ.
by steve roy
Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 85
Views: 2418

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

rca1824, you say: Backtesting whole periods from history shows that 100% TSM always beats any portfolio with any TBM if you wait long enough (generally 25 years). So here's a thought experiment: I'm 72 years old. I'm 100% in stocks per your suggestion. I'm drawing down on my million dollar TSM port...
by steve roy
Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations on a cheap commuter car
Replies: 11
Views: 451

Re: Recommendations on a cheap commuter car

We just leased a VW Jetta (6 speed automatic, 2.0 L engine). We needed a car fast and lease terms were attractive. This is the Jetta S, and one of their lower-end vehicles. The base engine is rated at 115 horses and is not favored by car reviewers, but I find the vehicle more than adequate. The tric...
by steve roy
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 85
Views: 2418

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

rca1824, you say: Backtesting whole periods from history shows that 100% TSM always beats any portfolio with any TBM if you wait long enough (generally 25 years). So here's a thought experiment: I'm 72 years old. I'm 100% in stocks per your suggestion. I'm drawing down on my million dollar TSM portf...
by steve roy
Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 16
Views: 1479

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

When englishgirl mentioned the book-read being way different than the movie, it triggered a memory. Here's the take of a novelist/screenwriter -- Niven Busch* -- on the difference between writing movie scripts and writing novels: "Screenplays are all right as long as you stay pretty detached bu...
by steve roy
Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2388

Re: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?

There are a various cousins to the Larry (30% SCV/70% bonds) Portfolio: Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund (30% TSM & ITSM/ 70% bonds) Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio (25% LT Treasuries/25% ST Treasuries/25% TSM/25% gold) Wellesley Fund (40% LCV/60% corporate bonds) Strategic Conservative G...
by steve roy
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of adding Roth Option to 401K Plan
Replies: 93
Views: 5206

Re: Pros and cons of adding Roth Option to 401K Plan

I've been involved with a multi-player 401(k) Plan for twenty years. We're adding a Roth option the end of the year, due to participant demand. Personally, I don't think it's a swift idea for employees in their peak earning years to do a Roth 401(k), because the tax break is more valuable NOW and (v...
by steve roy
Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC & Fox Business Websites
Replies: 26
Views: 2868

Re: CNBC & Fox Business Websites

I go through CNBC's website every few days and check what stories they've got up. I find their selection tends to be political and/or slanted toward hot stocks or sectors of the moment. And I look at some of CNBC's "current event" stories, maybe taking a half hour with them. But frankly, I...
by steve roy
Fri Jul 10, 2015 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads
Replies: 49
Views: 3985

Re: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads

This isn't a forum of little robots. You read the posts of different participants and the teachings of Jack Bogle, make your judgments, then your decisions. I slice and dice. I follow Jack as regards index funds, as regards low costs, but not so much with simplicity part. Instead of an hour a year r...
by steve roy
Wed Jul 08, 2015 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re: Advice on Whole Life Insurance as part of retirement portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 1421

Re: Advice on Whole Life Insurance as part of retirement portfolio

Interesting thread.

Maybe I missed it, but what insurance company offers the policy that's such a good deal? Or is this classified information?

Wondering.
by steve roy
Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11571

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I purchased a large slug of TIPS (via Vanguard's initial TIPS fund) years ago. The only change I've made is shifting the holdings to the short-term Vanguard TIPS fund. I was afraid of an interest rate hike, but this -- to date -- has proven to be a mistake. (Oh well.) But I'm not changing anything. ...
by steve roy
Wed Jul 01, 2015 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 8466

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

Terrific summary of the falling dominoes. Thanks, Larry. Much appreciated.
by steve roy
Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Housing Market in Southern California
Replies: 32
Views: 4565

Re: Housing Market in Southern California

A friend of ours just sold his North Hollywood house for one million smackeroonies. He offered it at $850k and a battle of bids ensued, driving the price up.

Real estate around these parts is frothy. We will see if it stays frothy.
by steve roy
Sat Jun 27, 2015 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 45
Views: 7019

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

Happily, Vanguard does not double charge, though they do (from necessity) use "Investor" share classes.
by steve roy
Sat Jun 27, 2015 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6601

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

I would agree with Nisi, way up above.

Unscientific polls aren't indicative of anything.
by steve roy
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?
Replies: 168
Views: 19738

Re: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?

We buy used cars exclusively. We look for deals. Picked up a Saturn Vue ten years ago with 12,000 miles on it, and we got it cheap because sticks in Southern California are not popular. Then we got a Volvo S60 for $19k; the car was a stick (of course!) with 3000 miles on the odometer. Most recently ...
by steve roy
Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]
Replies: 36
Views: 2857

Re: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]

Many happy returns, Mel. Truly.
by steve roy
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Did you spend much time wringing your hands over Retirement Savings as Many on Forum Do Today?
Replies: 98
Views: 14684

Re: Retirees: Did you spend much time wringing your hands over Retirement Savings as Many on Forum Do Today?

Up until forty, I spent most of my energy wringing my hands over survival and earning a living. Saving for retirement didn't really enter my thinking until forty-four or forty-five.
by steve roy
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Books
Replies: 56
Views: 7378

Re: Your Top 10 Books

Life On the Mississippi -- M. Twain

Philip Marlowe Mysteries -- R. Chandler

Travis McGees (in my youth) -- J. MacDonald

Wind In The Willows -- K. Grahame

Catch 22 -- J. Heller

More than ten, but oh well.
by steve roy
Sun Jun 21, 2015 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Analysis
Replies: 2
Views: 649

Re: Portfolio Analysis

I know that Vanguard long term tax exempt isn't that long term, still in all I would choose intermediates.
by steve roy
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Grantham and Hussman Correct About Valuations? [US stock market, Larry article]
Replies: 18
Views: 2087

Re: Are Grantham and Hussman Correct About Valuations? [US stock market, Larry article]

nisiprius wrote:[Accidentally posted in wrong thread]


Nisi, I would happily read your accidents. Or anything else you posted.
by steve roy
Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 16873

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

The wife and I own two-fers in the "victims of hackery" department. SHE was a victim of the OPM breach. We were BOTH victims of the Anthem (Health Insurance Company) breach. The result? We had some unkonwn entity e-file for a federal income tax refund using my Social Security Number. The ...
by steve roy
Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Bay Area real estate is so expensive
Replies: 12
Views: 2088

Re: Why Bay Area real estate is so expensive

drawpoker wrote:Same thing with Arlington VA. The city and county are one in the same.

What's your point?


Interesting factoid. But you're right. A non-sequitor.
by steve roy
Fri Jun 19, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Bay Area real estate is so expensive
Replies: 12
Views: 2088

Re: Why Bay Area real estate is so expensive

Interesting factoid: County of San Francisco and City of San Francisco occupy the exact same geography.
by steve roy
Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies
Replies: 30
Views: 3758

Re: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies

The Seven Samarai Yojimbo How Green Was My Valley She Wore a Yellow Ribbon The Sea Hawk Dr. Strangelove It's A Wonderful Life His Girl Friday Something Wild (The above would probably change ... depending on the day, the tides, the phase of the moon. But the listed flicks are all movies I have loved.)
by steve roy
Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 16873

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

The wife and I own two-fers in the "victims of hackery" department. SHE was a victim of the OPM breach. We were BOTH victims of the Anthem (Health Insurance Company) breach. The result? We had some unkonwn entity e-file for a federal income tax refund using my Social Security Number. The r...
by steve roy
Sun Jun 07, 2015 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity study identifies the most successful investors!
Replies: 34
Views: 4622

Re: Fidelity study identifies the most successful investors!

When Elvis keeled over in his early forties, the wags said, "Good career move."

They were right. He's worth way more now than in the last five years of his actual life.
by steve roy
Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate versus Treasury bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 429

Re: Corporate versus Treasury bonds

Short term bonds' value don't fall as much as longer term because their time to redemption is shorter. I think of interest rates and bonds as opposite ends of a teeter totter. Interest rates go UP, and the face value of lower interest bonds go DOWN, because who's going to pay for a lower paying old ...
by steve roy
Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay $150 In Taxes On $150000 Income
Replies: 37
Views: 7124

Re: How to pay $150 In Taxes On $150000 Income

http://rootofgood.com/make-six-figure-income-pay-no-tax/ I never thought this could be done, but here it is. My thoughts: Wish I had access to a 457. It helps to have three young kids. It helps to have income split between two earners instead of one person making all the money. He's retired but his...
by steve roy
Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity study identifies the most successful investors!
Replies: 34
Views: 4622

Re: Fidelity study identifies the most successful investors!

Barry Ritholtz did a podcast some months ago where this study (or one like it) was brought up. Ever since, I have strived to manage my portfolio as if I were dead.

So far, so good.
by steve roy
Sat Jun 06, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Know How Much You're Paying?"
Replies: 44
Views: 7049

Re: "Do You Know How Much You're Paying?"

The Mrs. and I were paying 12 basis points for our Vanguard portfolio, then the Mrs. took her slice of the pie (28% ) and took it to her old TSP where the costs are around 3 basis points. So I guesstimate that, all in, we are now at 8 or 9 basis points, and aim to drag it lower over the next couple ...
by steve roy
Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If SCV has higher returns over time, why is market concentration there so low?
Replies: 21
Views: 1839

Re: If SCV has higher returns over time, why is market concentration there so low?

Small caps don't forever stay small cap. A company is founded, a company grows (and stops being "small cap"), maybe languishes, maybe goes belly up. We're talking about highly perishable entities. Two examples. Fleischer Animation Studios (founded by Max and Dave Fleischer) was the pre-emi...
by steve roy
Wed Jun 03, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio - Do I Need All These Funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 3097

Re: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio - Do I Need All These Funds?

Have you seen the simplified version?

viewtopic.php?t=38374

I follow a version of the above. I'm overweighted in small cap, value, and short-term bonds.
by steve roy
Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Mess - Please Help To Get on Track
Replies: 16
Views: 1246

Re: Portfolio Mess - Please Help To Get on Track

Me, I would pare what you have down to broad-based, low-cost stock funds. You need about five or six funds (max) to get yourself organized and started on a simplified path. I would roll the old 401(k) ("His 1st") over to an IRA-rollover at Vanguard and focus on costs and wide diversificati...
by steve roy
Sun May 31, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 5510

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

Count me in as a member of the anti-dividend cult. Yes, but your comments are always gentlemanly. You have been respectful to those who disagree with you. Even I am telling people to not chase dividend yield. I have usually found that gentlemanly discourse rarely involves people accusing each other...
by steve roy
Sun May 31, 2015 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay
Replies: 28
Views: 2488

Re: International bonds - VTIBX - bubble, short, stay

Have a little of the Vanguard International Bond index fund - VTIBX - https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=1231&FundIntExt=INT and just saw this Bill Gross article about concern over Germany bunds... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-short-lifetime-144103525.html Do his...
by steve roy
Fri May 29, 2015 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity as part of your Net Worth?
Replies: 25
Views: 2930

Re: Home Equity as part of your Net Worth?

Welll ... if your friend lived in California, his property taxes wouldn't go up with rising valuations. And though the state DOES have income taxes, if he's got no job, he's got no income. So no taxes!

Win-win.
by steve roy
Fri May 29, 2015 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts
Replies: 28
Views: 2477

Re: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts

I'm skeptical of the need for foreign bonds. (Want foreign exposure? Do it on the equity side.) Last year, a Bogleheads panelist pointed out thatVanguard execs said several years ago that they were mulling the launch of a foreign bond fund due to "customer demand." Maybe they've since chan...
by steve roy
Fri May 29, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 32
Views: 3071

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

Steve Roy? If you had made one lump sum acquisition into both intermediate and long term bond funds only last February, how would feel now looking forward 5 - 10 years? Long term bonds would scare me to death. My bond duration is 3.7 years, split between VG intermediate-term bond index, short-term ...
by steve roy
Fri May 29, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 32
Views: 3071

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

Depends on the bond fund. Short-term bonds won't fall much; longer bond funds will. BUT, interest rates fluctuate or decline, then longer term bond funds are the instruments to own. Decisions, decisions. Me, I have short duration bonds and recognize that in this environment I get lower returns. But ...
by steve roy
Fri May 29, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How shall I adjust my portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 788

Re: How shall I adjust my portfolio

A suggestion for your 401(k);

Go with S & P 500 Index, the Non-U.S. Equity Index, and Intermediate bond index. These have lower costs; everything else seems relatively pricey.
by steve roy
Thu May 28, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax-Effective Retirement Distibution Strategy Advice Requested
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Re: Tax-Effective Retirement Distibution Strategy Advice Requested

My real life strategy: We've got a biggish tax-deferred accounts, smallish investment account; we're a two-private pension family with SS deferred until 70. We will be retiring in early '17. Have no plans to convert traditional IRA to Roth. We would have a bit of a window in 2017-2018, but I don't p...
by steve roy
Tue May 26, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]
Replies: 13
Views: 3232

Re: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]

My take-away from this is: I tilted value (a la Swedroe, livesoft, others here) and it panned out. I shortened my bond duration, fearing interest rate hikes, and it didn't (yet) pan out. And staythecourse is right that I'm not comparing apples to apples. I have different funds inside a Conservative ...
by steve roy
Mon May 25, 2015 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]
Replies: 13
Views: 3232

Re: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]

I think randomguy nails it. The under-performance was/is due to my large allocations of short term nominal bonds (Vanguard Short Term Bond Index) and short-term TIPS. (20% of the portfolio.) The fear of a big interest-rate jump, thus far unrealized, ultimately resulted in the allocation's short fall...
by steve roy
Mon May 25, 2015 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]
Replies: 13
Views: 3232

A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]

I've been a slice-and-dicer for some time now. I listen to Swedroe. I listen to Taylor Larimore. I pay close attention to Dr. Bernstein. I mash bits and pieces of each of these gurus together and get ... the portfolio I own. (Eclectic, that's me.) I've got a bunch of different Vanguard funds, and wh...
by steve roy
Sat May 23, 2015 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for maxed long-term return
Replies: 5
Views: 996

Re: Portfolio for maxed long-term return

You have a stock-bond allocation similar to the 90% stocks/10% bonds of the 2050 Target Date Fund, the difference being that the Target Date goes with two stock funds that are cap weighted, and you go with equal weightings for small caps, mid caps, and large caps, with a value tilt. And you throw RE...
by steve roy
Sat May 23, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I really need International equities in my portfolio ?
Replies: 87
Views: 6912

Re: Do I really need International equities in my portfolio ?

Do you really need international equities in your portfolio?

Come back in twenty years, I'll let you know.
by steve roy
Sat May 23, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bond ETFs a bad idea?
Replies: 43
Views: 3324

Re: Are Bond ETFs a bad idea?

You want more international, take it on the equity side.

Last year I heard a former VG exec concede that "investor demand" was what drove the creation of an international bond fund at Vanguard.
by steve roy
Sat May 23, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett
Replies: 35
Views: 3036

Re: advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett

There are a variety of asset allocations that will get you where you want/need to go. A three fund portfolio can work. A six fund portfolio will be okay. A small cap value tilt might be just ducky over the next 19.5 years. But nobody, and I mean NOBODY, can predict which AA will work best. So pick a...
by steve roy
Thu May 21, 2015 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Latest Attack on Index Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1281

Re: The Latest Attack on Index Funds

No reference to the enduring under-performance of actively managed funds.

There's a surprise.

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