Search found 465 matches

by steve r
Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 1457

Re: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?

I looked at the time period that goes as far back for all 4 funds, which is approximately 9 years. I found the following: #1 performer - PKW - Buyback index ETF - concentrating on companies that are partaking in large amounts of share buybacks - Total return 96.78% #2 performer - FLVCX - Fidelity L...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6702

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

. "Over the long-haul what matters is factor exposure and expense" Minimum volatility is just a different combination of factors. For example, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility factor loads for the full period the index series is available: MSCI USA Minimum Volatility: June 1988 to May 2015...
by steve r
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6702

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

...I can manage the total portfolio volatility by adjusting the stock/bond ratio. So in this scenario, picking lower volatility, lower return equities is more or less than same as just adding more bonds to the mix with the higher volatility stocks. +1 It is what I do. The trick is how much less bon...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6702

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

A way to look at this space is that it is the most volatile stocks that underperform. History has shown this. Managers do not have to predict the least volatile stocks, only avoid the most volatile ones. But that's not what factor-based investing, nor this fund, does. This post was in response to w...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6702

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

According to standard CAPM theory there is a risk/reward tradeoff in all markets. The higher the risk, the greater the expected reward and the lower the risk, the lower the expected reward. Academic studies looking specifically at low volatility stocks have shown this basic assumption to be false i...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6702

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Stocks are still going to sting in a downturn, even these ones. Just possibly a little meaningfully less. You can check various low volatility indexes to see what might have happened in 2008-2009 in theory. But nowhere are you getting diversification of the likes you see with high-quality bonds. By...
by steve r
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6702

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

If most managers can't pick stocks well enough to beat the relevant index, why should one believe they will be any better in predicting what stocks will be low volatility? If one wants to lower volatility, just reduce equity exposure. Simple, cheap, no manager risk, proven over time. A way to look ...
by steve r
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 7444

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Did small-caps outperform the total market since 1926? Yes. Did they if you remove the single period 1975-1983? No. If they did have higher return, did they have higher risk-adjusted return? Probably not ... I have read this "fact" a thousand times ... and yet .. according to Jack Bogle ....
by steve r
Sun Jun 21, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New to Golf
Replies: 45
Views: 4946

Re: New to Golf

1) lessons 2) rock bottom golf has a complete set with putter wedges driver woods irons and hybrids and bag for 200 (Ray cook) .. If u have more to spend I would go with Adams Speedline set for 299 (price not listed). This is very good set. U may find a used deal for less. This assumes you are avera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 1738

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Sometimes the triple leveraged ETF can help. Its strange behavior will give you more gain if the investment goes up steadily, and reduce losses if it goes down steadily. Right. Tripple daily cannot go below zero. Tripple with borrowing can. This is relative to levered with margin. Obviously, levera...
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA-Cref Alternatives
Replies: 11
Views: 1213

Re: TIAA-Cref Alternatives

Vanguard will minimize fees. Their target funds or life cycle funds will minimize effort and thinking going forward. One fund and done.
by steve r
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 1738

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Understanding the math may help. (it helped me) If, over the course of a year Nat Gas has 120 days up one percent and 120 days down one percent, what do you think will happen to the daily tripled levered etf? a) break even b) lose about 5 percent c) lose over ten percent The answer is c. In Excel, t...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1047

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

Sharp, sawhorse, wizard, and Steve. This sounds like a good choice. Would you still support it with a short contribution phase before moving jobs (if that happens)? I've read it is not simple to move traditional and real estate funds from TIAA-CREF to other brokerages (would like to consolidate acc...
by steve r
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options
Replies: 17
Views: 1047

Re: Portfolio help - 403b TIAA CREF options

I agree with the last two posts. Put most of her $$ into TREA for now. Does she have access to any T-C mutual funds in her plan? They might have lower ERs... +3 I read this site thinking I would recommend the usual index options, but not given these choices. This BH link should help ... asset alloc...
by steve r
Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 4025

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

... I'm surprised by Rick Ferri's standard deviation estimate. I had always thought that REITS were more volatile than the typical large cap/total market. I still do... Per past data on spreadsheet on BH (Simba). 1972 to 2014 Standard deviation for both TSM and REITs is roughly 18.1. REITs had a hi...
by steve r
Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1669

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

Logically, wouldn't a country's currency tend to rise when its economy is doing well and tend to fall when its economy is doing poorly? If so, then currency movements might correlate with stock movements. I don't know if it actually works that way in practice, just suggesting a theoretical reason w...
by steve r
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1669

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

... I think people are probably kidding themselves if they expect a minimum volatility-type fund to have significantly lower drawdowns than a total market fund .... The index for the iShares fund goes back further, with this just being a public snapshot: https://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/MS...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)
Replies: 13
Views: 1573

Re: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)

... 1) Bring BONDS to 20% in my traditional 401K. 2) Consolidate my Vanguard Taxable to 2 Funds - VTSAX, VTIAX (Will be taking a little STG hit when selling the others there - VMVAX/VSIAX, VTMGX) 3) Leave REITs as it for now (Maybe consolidate to 1 fund later) 4) Gradually dispose individual stocks...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1669

Re: Currency hedging equities: Vanguard's Global Min Vol Fund

... the currency hedging is just one feature of many of the global min vol fund. It's an active quant fund that loads on low-beta stocks and combinations of stocks that have low correlation, with some goals of keeping decent country and sector diversification. The main competitor is i-Shares ACWV, ...
by steve r
Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)
Replies: 13
Views: 1573

Re: In middile of AA (Suggestion to achieve/Reduce Bond/REIT %)

If you want to move towards a "dull" three fund portfolio ... then just do it. This discussion on REITs, no REITs, this asset, that asset will only work if you are fully committed to it, through think and thin. FWIW, I own REITs, owned them for a long time now. But I know where they fit in...
by steve r
Tue Jun 02, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research on the lottery effect in stock prices
Replies: 12
Views: 1561

Re: Research on the lottery effect in stock prices

... "lottery-like" means high skew and kurtosis . What does such a distribution look like? Well, because of kurtosis the returns are usually very big or very small - extremely volatile ... The lottery effect is one of the theoretical foundations for the high risk adjusted returns of low v...
by steve r
Sat May 23, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 10256

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

Simplicity in and of itself has little merit. One would not suggest only owning one stock or one sector fund for the sake of simplicity. But what I found most insightful -- for my own journey and insight --- is the discussion is that simplicity can help avoid the behavioral traps associated with try...
by steve r
Fri May 08, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 1988

Re: Want to invest in VWELX but costly - Mimic using two ETFs?

This being the Bogleheads forum, I'd suggest that a three fund portfolio is the best place to start and then you can deviate from there ... . +1 I too must have some money with Fidelity... and Spartan is the way to go. Trying to match Wellington is problematic on may fronts. Perhaps be comfortable ...
by steve r
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 218

Re: Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?

retiredjg wrote:If you plan to convert it anyway, there is no need to wait until next year. Just roll the pension into tIRA and convert. Or roll the pension directly into Roth IRA. The tax will be the same either way.

I thought, perhaps wrongly, you can do one conversion per calendar year.
by steve r
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 218

Backdoor Roth -- then pension conversion to IRA?

I got good news today. A decade ago, my wife did a long term substitute teaching. Evidently, $1,000 was contributed to a pension fund that she is now eligible to receive. It can be: 1) rolled over to an IRA or 2) withdrawn with a ten percent penalty My preference is to avoid the $100 penalty. But, a...
by steve r
Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3298

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

Anyone here have thoughts about SPLV (SPDR's take on this theme)? Over its history it has delivered on its promise. It was the first of these funds to market. Performance-wise it has been very similar to USMV (my personal favorite in this space). It's ER is .25%, which is the main reason I don't us...
by steve r
Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should I include a REIT fund with a .77 ER in my portfolio?
Replies: 5
Views: 876

Re: should I include a REIT fund with a .77 ER in my portfol

I own this fund. It is NOT a REIT or an REIT fund (index), rather an individual annuity that owns a lot of real estate products around the globe. It provides wonderful diversification. The expense ratio is not an apples to apples comparison. A REIT fund has an expense ratio to hold various REITs lik...
by steve r
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 83
Views: 8464

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

Given your fixed income portion of your retirement is unlikely to earn 5.25 percent, I would go 15 year mortgage and crank up your stock holdings a touch. This assumes one can afford the higher payments. http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/savings/simple-savings-calculator.aspx steve r, This is whe...
by steve r
Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 83
Views: 8464

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

TS, You are making this way too complicated. It is very simple. 1) Can your investment return more than 5.25% over this 15 years period?? A) If the answer is yes, take the 30 years mortgage. B) During this 15 years period, if the return is lower than 5.25%, aka you changed your mind. You can prepay...
by steve r
Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 83
Views: 8464

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

The breakeven point is 5.25%.. So, can you investment return 5.25%?? If you take 15 years mortgage, after 15 years, you owed nothing. If you take 30 years mortgage, after 15 years, you owed 253K. ... If your investment return greater than 5.25%, you make money. Or else, your don't. KlangFool The bi...
by steve r
Sun Mar 15, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 32
Views: 3052

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

My 30yr FRM is at 3.49%. My 64/36 portfolio asset return average about 7.1%. So, I am not in hurry to pay off the mortgage loan. So, where is the interest rate saving?? I made 3.5% from the loan amount. ... KlangFool The OP is not borrowing at 3.75 percent to invest in stocks. The OP is borrowing t...
by steve r
Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 32
Views: 3052

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

Kids. Yes, they are expensive. But having a house paid for pre-college will be a nice help. steve, Why? I have kids going to college in a few years. Housing loan interest rate is much cheaper than student loan by a few percentage point. 30 yr FRM give a person that kind of flexibility. Interest rat...
by steve r
Sun Mar 15, 2015 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 32
Views: 3052

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

I do not think we have enough information. Is your income stable/secure(like a teacher)? If NO, I would go with the 30 year. Is your income high relative to payments? If yes. I would go with the 15 year. You can afford it. See MarcBarb's math. Every year with a 15 year mortgage is $1,000 - $2,000 mo...
by steve r
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular increases Minutes, Texts, & Data
Replies: 14
Views: 1131

Re: Consumer Cellular increases Minutes, Texts, & Data

A little sight of hand on data Data overage on the 3 gb plan now increased to 25 cents. It had been 1.5 cents. It is possible, if I am not careful and switch plans mid month, this can cost me a lot more. Before, each addition GB cost $15, now $250 (if not careful). So thanks for pointing this out to...
by steve r
Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone know a source showing avg. real wage in 70's vs today
Replies: 19
Views: 2244

Re: Anyone know a source showing avg. real wage in 70's vs t

FRED The Federal Reserve Board of St Louis complied over 100,000 data series http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/COMPRNFB They have real wage data back to 1947.https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=158710 Real hourly wages are up nearly 50 percent since the 1970s. They h...
by steve r
Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

Since USMV is the only one of these funds I invest in currently, I do watch it's beta. iShares has pretty consistently reported it as being around .8. Backtesting has claimed that this number should be a little lower--we'll see after the next bear market. Based on these numbers, I've been treating ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

.... it looks like MSCI Global Minimum Volatility uses some kind of model (GEM2) to estimate or forecast covariances. Then a practical implantation has constraints like min/max weights (0.05/1.5 pct), sector and country weights, etc. So it becomes a constrained optimization problem, which is going ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

Global Minimum Variance Portfolio (GMVP) is straight out of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). But rather than finding the Tangency Portfolio (TP), which has maximum Sharpe slope, GMVP is the tip of the Markowitz bullet. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Markowitz_frontier.jpg Finding ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

I've argued in the past that for the person who holds, say, a 90/10 portfolio and wants less risk, the best way to do that by far is to add bonds as opposed to low volatility stocks. I suspect this is more true for someone who views risk as volatility than for someone most concerned with shortfall ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

It's worth noting that low-vol funds have more interest rate risk than the market, primarily because they are tilted toward sectors such as utilities which use more debt-financing. You can observe this in terms of the higher correlation between bond returns and low-vol returns than with market retu...
by steve r
Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

Well, in the spirit of chasing performance, I today have moved a small part of my Roth IRA into an initial stake in this fund, VMVFX... I think that doubles the number of Bogleheads who claim to be in the fund. I am curious what BH think about active management (black box) in this space versus some...
by steve r
Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3499

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

The fund has done well for two reasons: 1) Currency hedged international indexes have outperformed in recent years their unhedged counterparts. In the ETF space, HEFA outperformed EFA. 2) Minimum volatility investments -- of which I am invested in -- has outperformed on a risk adjusted basis since t...
by steve r
Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique of Fidelity Index Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 1635

Re: Critique of Fidelity Index Portfolio

That's the... taxable account only? Ditch the REITs and high-yield corporate bonds. .... Also, my guess is that you want FSIVX instead of FSGDX. ... Different people have different feelings about tilting total market exposure to different categories. A basic small-cap tilt, without combining with v...
by steve r
Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone know when CD rates will increase?
Replies: 70
Views: 5865

Re: Anyone know when CD rates will increase?

Nobel Prize winning economist Thomas Sargent has this prediction on interest rates (short video). Enjoy.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CF4MD5imt2U
by steve r
Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Suspend 403b contributions to cancel mortgage insurance?
Replies: 12
Views: 1293

Re: Suspend 403b contributions to cancel mortgage insurance?

Thanks for the replies. You all inspired me to check out refinancing. It looks like I can get a 3.7% fixed 15 year conventional mortgage without PMI with a total of about $2,000 in closing costs. This seems like a complete no-brainer as I can shorten the term, save interest, ditch PMI, and not touc...
by steve r
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: why did my portfolio perform so badly in '14 ?
Replies: 13
Views: 3449

Re: why did my portfolio perform so badly in '14 ?

Just my opinion, but if you can't easily analyze your portfolio and determine why you aren't seeing the returns you'd like, it should be time to simplify. +1 3 funds or 3 funds plus (tilt small value, commodities, REITs, TIPS whatever). I do think your portfolio is hedging against inflation (with T...
by steve r
Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Suspend 403b contributions to cancel mortgage insurance?
Replies: 12
Views: 1293

Re: Suspend 403b contributions to cancel mortgage insurance?

Yes!!! Not only will you not pay PMI, you will also no longerpay interest on the amount you pay down. This is a no brainer IMHO. You may also want to refi to a 15 year mortgage to coincide with retirement. You might consider contributing a little more to stocks and a little less to bonds to your ret...
by steve r
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPM and Minimum Variance Portofolio
Replies: 4
Views: 572

Re: CAPM and Minimum Variance Portofolio

I would suggest starting by reviewing the Wiki and the following article. You can see favorable results back to 1926. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Low_volatility_index_returns http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2055431 A few threads on this topic have come up in the past. I am one ...
by steve r
Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Weighted Funds - Better?
Replies: 31
Views: 2942

Re: Equal Weighted Funds - Better?

I am NOT an equal weighter ... but ... 50+ years of data does make one pause. I would not refer to it as illogical. So I will make some counter arguments. 1) Risk adjusted returns--- This has already been discussed. 2) Casino -- Investors are the casino in that the odds are slightly in our favor. A ...
by steve r
Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frontier Communications - Horrible Experiences
Replies: 9
Views: 1547

Frontier Communications - Horrible Experiences

Recently, AT&T uverse was sold to Frontier Communications (at least in Connecticut). My service has been horrible. I will not bore you with a long list of details but my issues include dropped service attempting to switch plans -- poor customer service -- tremendously long wait hold times --- pr...

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