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Re: table suggests total bond not best as diversifier

Back-testing can be hazardous to your wealth. True ... but ... is there any question in anyone's mind what the Fed will do when the next recession hits? Anyone not think rates will come even lower. LTT may get clobbered between now and then, but when the next recession hits the Fed will almost cert...
by steve r
Sun Aug 31, 2014 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: table suggests total bond not best as diversifier
Replies: 20
Views: 1800

Re: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?

If someone tells me that I can get another expected 1 percent per year CAGR, I don't care if it requires 20 funds to pull off, I would do it. I see two nit picking flaws with this. 1) I would not suggest investing based on someone telling you something. Do your homework. 2) 20 different funds almos...
by steve r
Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 71
Views: 4069

Re: How compelling is the TIAA Real Estate fund?

When I consider putting some of my T-C money into TREA, I stumble when I consider the expense ratio: 0.87%. Instead, I put money into Vanguard REIT Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGSLX), which has an E.R. of 0.10%. The chart of TREA's performance since 2010 is very impressive, but the E.R. stops me col...
by steve r
Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How compelling is the TIAA Real Estate fund?
Replies: 85
Views: 4607

Re: How compelling is the TIAA Real Estate fund?

I have 29% of my T-C portfolio in TREA and 53% in various T-C stock funds ... ... I have a quarter of my T-C portfolio in TREA ... and about half in stocks (split between international and U.S.) ... the rest is in a bond fund. This allocation is a tad too conservative for a presumably young faculty...
by steve r
Mon Jun 16, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How compelling is the TIAA Real Estate fund?
Replies: 85
Views: 4607

Re: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance

.... think there is a sort of synergy between small-cap and value. Small caps are no good unless you get rid of the small-cap growth stocks, and while value is always good, value is much more powerful within the small-cap universe than within the total stock universe. I'm not saying any of that is ...
by steve r
Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance
Replies: 42
Views: 3880

Re: pick up double major or finish college in 3 years?

As an economics professor I have seen students with "odd"/"unique" double majors do very well. Economic majors do very well and is one of the top paid non-engineering major (see PayScale.com pay by major). This survey assumes no Master's degree. Diverse skill sets actually streng...
by steve r
Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pick up double major or finish college in 3 years?
Replies: 103
Views: 4417

Re: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?

Thanks for the welcome and insightful comments. Going back further in time would have been instructive. :? Arends doesn't define US "Minimum Volatility" stocks in his article. He leaves it at "The portfolio takes advantage of research showing that "riskier" stocks have tend...
by steve r
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?
Replies: 24
Views: 1812

Re: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?

No one has really commented on the actual portfolio yet. So I'll take a shot. (1) Low-volatility strategies are just small and value strategies in disguise. They are called "low-volatility funds" instead of "mid cap value funds" for marketing purposes. This is not backed by the ...
by steve r
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?
Replies: 24
Views: 1812

Re: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance

Even if he is correct, for buy/hold/rebalance types, small-caps out-perform over long time periods. So unless you are a market timer, why is this an important issue? I think you missed the point. His statement is opposite of yours, saying that none of the various cap-sizes show persistent outperfor...
by steve r
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance
Replies: 42
Views: 3880

Re: College & PhD vs $250k working

grad students usually get full tuition/health benefits as well as a stipend from the lab in which they are doing their phd work. monies could be from a fellowship or a research grant from nih, nsf, Dod.... go for the phd and academics is NOT especially a bad career path !!! +1 You son has a passion...
by steve r
Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College & PhD vs $250k working
Replies: 104
Views: 7597

Re: Refinance mortgage from 15 to 30yr to invest more?

No. I think you know this. It cost you $27,000 to free up $63,000 to invest. That is close to a 50 percent return. Even if you STARTED with 63,000 to invest ... that would be one heck of a return. To get such a return, means taking risk. Knowing you have a big down payment in a few years it is not a...
by steve r
Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance mortgage from 15 to 30yr to invest more?
Replies: 8
Views: 958

Re: Car for a long daily commute

I can tell you what I did (similar situation). A used car a few years old with nearly no miles on it. But be patient in buying. I drove my old car nearly into the ground, but knew what car I was buying next. (Lexus CT200H. Small, but nice. I recommend it to anyone, but you have to like it ... it is ...
by steve r
Sun Jun 08, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car for a long daily commute
Replies: 75
Views: 6002

Re: BenefitWallet Investment Options? HSA

Thanks.
I saw that page, but missed the pdf link (on the right for other readers). Two Vanguard fund is all I really need. Other funds probably on the expensive side. I will cross that bridge when I come to it.
by steve r
Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BenefitWallet Investment Options? HSA
Replies: 3
Views: 229

BenefitWallet Investment Options? HSA

Anyone know the investment options at BenefitWallet for HSA? How good they are, etc?

Also, is it a good option for savings if maxed out other taxed deferred space?
by steve r
Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BenefitWallet Investment Options? HSA
Replies: 3
Views: 229

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect

Trev on the old diehards site backtested midcaps to the 1920s ... I could find that link, but here is some of the findings. Mid caps consistent outperform a barbell approach of L and S

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1997
by steve r
Thu Apr 24, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
Replies: 46
Views: 4464

Re: Global Minimum Volatility Fund

I took a look at ACWV and noticed it trades at a rather hefty premium to the global total stock market: ACWV: PE 22.78, PB 4.28 VT: PE 18.3, PB 2.0 Pretty interesting, considering that I previously read that low volatility/beta funds tend to generally have a value tilt. This is most definately not ...
by steve r
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 2777

Re: Global Minimum Volatility Fund

I think we're overstating the distinction between a minimum variance portfolio and a low beta portfolio. Actually what makes the iShares ETFs distinctive is not so much they they are running minimum variance portfolios but that the deviate from what the math tells them the minimum variance portfoli...
by steve r
Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 2777

Re: Global Minimum Volatility Fund

I can see where a fund like this might be a good diversifier in the context of a portfolio in theory , in that it is designed to act differently than other asset classes. The question in this regard would seem to be whether it is different enough when you need it to be. But as a stand-alone holding...
by steve r
Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 2777

Re: Global Minimum Volatility Fund

when you say a large share, what percentage are you talking? Specifically I guess how much of your equities. As trasmuss points out the vanguard managed payout fund has about 30% of its equities in this fund. From memory I think managed payout has 65% in equities which are split 25/20/20 between To...
by steve r
Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 2777

Re: Global Minimum Volatility Fund

I own this fund for a large share of my portfolio. Previously, I owned a similar index (ACWV). That said, I strongly encourage you to read the Wiki on the space. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Low_volatility_index_returns If still interested, you may also want to read the book by Falkenstein (which ...
by steve r
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 2777

Re: Portfolio Volatility is a Big Drag on Returns

grayfox wrote:Dave


So how about Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund Investor Shares (VMVFX) for the stock portion of a portfolio.

The fund invests primarily in U.S. and foreign stocks that are expected to minimize volatility relative to the global equity market.

+1
by steve r
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Volatility is a Big Drag on Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 2036

Re: Best Mortgage Type for 1st-timers: 30-YR Fixed?

If you have young kids and can afford it, you may want to consider a 15 year. It will be a real plus to have a home paid for pre-college years. As a general rule of thumb, the most competitively priced products (mean best deal for borrowers) are the 15 and 30 year mortgages. I would not do a 10, 20 ...
by steve r
Tue Mar 25, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Mortgage Type for 1st-timers: 30-YR Fixed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1257

Re: What about Minimum Volatility Equity ETFs??

I am in this space ... but before you jump in I strongly suggest reading up on the Wiki. You need to understand the difference between low vol and min vol. I own min vol (ACWV and VMNVX). The two are related, but low vol lowers returns by loading up on utilities, min vol caps any one sector. If you ...
by steve r
Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What about Minimum Volatility Equity ETFs??
Replies: 3
Views: 380

Re: LED lights currently worth it personal financewise?

I said no ... and I have spent hundreds of dollars on these things and love them. My guess is fluorescent lighting is cheaper ... but I hate it. LED is less than the old standard though.
by steve r
Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED lights currently worth it personal financewise?
Replies: 55
Views: 2720

Re: Was frugality a mistake? The downsides of saving too mu

so is this related to your thread about the guy who wants a Porsche? FWIW I have been frugal about objects but less so with experiences. Flew to Disneyworld with the kids and wife enough that they got tired of it. Cruises, trips. I buy expensive beer and consumables. Experiences that you defer may ...
by steve r
Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Was frugality a mistake? The downsides of saving too much.
Replies: 115
Views: 9990

Re: Replace less than 80% of income in retirement?

At the OP's age of 31, it's way too early to focus on end-game expenses and income. The focus for the next few decades needs to be on maintaining and increasing your savings rate, though with child-rearing expenses, it may not be easy. A higher savings rate gives you more options when you're in you...
by steve r
Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replace less than 80% of income in retirement?
Replies: 52
Views: 3412

Re: TurboTax Desktop Version

Calm Man wrote:You...actually had to pay to file the state with Desktop deluxe but only $20 plus tax.

I found this amusing ... paying a tax to pay/do taxes.
by steve r
Thu Mar 06, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax Desktop Version
Replies: 8
Views: 683

Re: Fidelity Spartan international funds

If you have an EM Spartan option, it is cheaper fee wise to pair FSIIX with that fund. FWIW, my employer allows three international index funds. I have an equal amount of emerging markets and FSIIX. This does mean I am overweight EM (at least with my Fidelity account). I have six funds all with the ...
by steve r
Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Spartan international funds
Replies: 3
Views: 443

Re: Home office deduction = one-way ticket to being audited?

Anyone who doesn't claim a tax deduction that they are entitle to imo are either (a) nuts or (b) have books they don't want audited... :P This year there is also a simplified home office deduction, but we use too much space to use it. Or, just do not want to be audited ...... not because of the boo...
by steve r
Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home office deduction = one-way ticket to being audited?
Replies: 31
Views: 3703

Re: low volatiity strategies piece for ETF.com

Because human nature doesn’t change, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to believe that the low-volatility anomaly will not persist. It also seems that much, if not most, of the anomaly can be explained by the poor performance of high-volatility stocks, not the outperformance of low-volatility sto...
by steve r
Fri Feb 21, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low volatiity strategies piece for ETF.com
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Percentage of assets at Vanguard also active vs index

100 percent index for both stocks and bonds. About a third a non-broad market index. Only about a third at Vanguard. Steve
by steve r
Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percentage of assets at Vanguard also active vs index
Replies: 23
Views: 1231

Re: TaxAct versus TurboTax

So ... I finished my taxes on both TurboTax and TaxAct. TaxAct handled my backdoor Roth much more easily. I do not recall TT asking if my IRA contribution was non deductible. but, entering (book) royalties was painful on TaxAct. It asked me if I wanted to do them as schedule E or C rather than askin...
by steve r
Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct versus TurboTax
Replies: 23
Views: 2151

Re: TurboTax best discount via Vanguard? Or others?

I paid $39 for desktop version Deluxe with state at BJs club. This is where I have bought it every year for many years. If you like desktop, only the Flagship members get a better deal. Online is cheaper. This year I also tried TaxAct for a lot less. I have trouble every year with backdoor Roth on T...
by steve r
Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TurboTax best discount via Vanguard? Or others?
Replies: 6
Views: 1106

Re: TaxAct versus TurboTax

TaxAct excellent for me, I just download all 1099 Divs,etc. from Vanguard and other Sites I have accounts with then open on computer along with TaxAct in Browser.I just highlight each point of data in the 1099 then "copy and paste" the data into TaxAct. Is this cut and paste line for line?
by steve r
Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct versus TurboTax
Replies: 23
Views: 2151

TaxAct versus TurboTax

I have been a user of TurboTax (TT) for years ... This year ... and last ... I had trouble on TT with my backdoor Roth conversion. Literally, when I imported my 1099-R (distribution) it added nothing to my tax bill, but adding my wife it did. I have no clue why, but somehow solved the problem. Other...
by steve r
Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct versus TurboTax
Replies: 23
Views: 2151

Re: Explaining RSP outperformance over SPY

Interesting thread ...
The trend though seems long lasting ... 49 year history tested here.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=130518
by steve r
Sun Feb 09, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining RSP outperformance over SPY
Replies: 19
Views: 1254

Re: 100% stock vs 95% stock

The ten year went from under 6 to 3. That drop in interest accounts for roughly on half of one percent returns per year on LTT. The weighted average nominal interest rate from '72 until today was higher than it is now. Maybe not real rate though. Adding .5 ER probably doesn't cover this, likely too...
by steve r
Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock vs 95% stock
Replies: 36
Views: 2808

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

I'm trying to market time this. .... I think these are all valid reasons to be careful of TREA right now. Secularly I think US CRE is still in the upcycle-- it tends to follow economic growth. But if we go back to the early 1990s, there was quite a long lag (the oversupply situation in 1990 was arg...
by steve r
Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: 100% stock vs 95% stock

This is a classic example of the fallacies of data mining and trying to extrapolate the results into the future. Agreed. All looks at history is data mining. But not by nearly as much as you claim. The ten year went from under 6 to 3. That drop in interest accounts for roughly on half of one percen...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock vs 95% stock
Replies: 36
Views: 2808

Re: What fidelity fund?

FFNOX might be something to look at. Otherwise shift to Vanguard where there are more obvious choices of passively-managed low-expense ratio funds of index funds such as the Target Retirement series. The semi-equivalent funds at Fidelity are actively-manged and have higher expense ratios; they are ...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What fidelity fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 902

Re: Market timing when combining investing and paying down d

I would pay down (more) debt and make your tax sheltered money a touch more aggressive (unless you are already doing this). For example, if you are 30 percent bonds, reduce this with new money (make all new money stocks) and pay of debt with extra cash. Paying down debt is better than bonds. So redu...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing when combining investing and paying down debt
Replies: 22
Views: 1120

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

I'm trying to market time this. 1. Green Street says in its Jan 7 press release that "Property appreciation has come to a virtual stop over the past several months, as the large increase in interest rates that occurred last summer continues to weigh on valuations." 2. TREA is nearing its ...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: 100% stock vs 95% stock

95/5 TSM/LTT returned 10.34 (with std. dev of 17.37)
100 TSM 10.35 (18.27)

Data 1972 to 2013

90/10 (for fun) 10.33 (16.48)

85/15 10.29 (15.63)

Steve
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock vs 95% stock
Replies: 36
Views: 2808

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

It's a fund that lives in the past. Even my Grandmother could market time this baby and you should too. Here's the bogleheads' thread on this one: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=123075&newpost=1898039 T Livesoft - Thanks for the link (I think I ignored it because of the...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

There's no question that investing in a REIT fund, or TIAA RE, is investing in a real, not nominal, asset class. you have to treat it as equity exposure, not bond exposure. I am convinced this is correct on the REIT front. Not to mention its leverage. TREA is 20-25% cash ... I think you could safel...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

I once ran correlations between TREA returns with stocks and bonds and found about an equal correlation to each. One problem with doing that is the low volatility of TREA which dampens the correlation coefficients. .... You can't ignore the big hit that TREA took in 2008 along with stocks - as did ...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

TREA is just a money losing vampire squid . I consider the user's phrase-borrowing here to be markedly inapt. +1 It all makes no sense. ... just another example of how Mother TIAA is subsidizing the disappointing RE investments of TREA which is a separate account, not part of TIAA. As a comparison ...
by steve r
Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

I could not care less about Simon properties. So you do not care about the expenses of a ten percent holding? There fees are not reported in the expense ratio of VNQ. If you wanted an expense ratio of zero, just buy SPG. Why pay infinite times the expense with VNQ. I get, but disagree with your lac...
by steve r
Sat Feb 01, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

Re: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

Also the fee for TREA is about .90% compared to VG REIT fees of .10% to. 24%. The fee comparison is garbage ... SPG (Simon Property Group) has additional expenses not included in the 0.10? Also, the Sharpe ratio suggests a much higher return on a risk adjusted basis for TIAA Real Estate I own both.
by steve r
Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495

TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?

http://imageshack.com/a/img703/7861/vb84.jpg I found this chart interesting. It compares TIAA Real Estate Account (TREA) with a REIT index and a investment grade bond fund. (Total Bond fund looked somewhat similar). So I thought I would start another thread ... Some points * TREA lacks REIT lock vo...
by steve r
Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate and asset allocation -- REIT? Bond?
Replies: 64
Views: 3495
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