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Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

So, it seems we have some Bogleheads arguing for gold? I would have expected a few attaboys for finally seeing the light. :wink: The reason you are hearing some skepticism is not because folks believe or don't believe in gold. The reason is no matter how you are presenting it there is a good chance...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 28
Views: 1629

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

This paper is my favorite on the topic. John Norstad used to post here a bit. http://www.norstad.org/finance/risk-and-time.html I see this mentioned over and over again as if this article is some holy grail of finance theory. He, like others, can write as much theory and mathematical equations they...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 36
Views: 1364

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Do as you wish, but anytime when folks make moves to decrease the amount of asset x when asset x is not doing well makes me wonder if there is some rationalization and/ or intellectualizing going on. These are two very strong defense mechanisms I see folks employ when justifying changing the IPS whe...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 28
Views: 1629

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

It stands to reason equity risk decreases over time. The longer you're in the market, the more likely you are to get a higher expected annual return. If you're in a year, you could always endure a temporary setback. It doesn't stand to reason at all. The reason equities have a higher expected retur...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 36
Views: 1364

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

It depends entirely on one's definition of risk. If one perceives risk to be the chance that an equity portfolio will underperform a bond-heavy portfolio, then the historical record suggests that such risk declines with time. However, if one perceives risk as variations in the final wealth value of...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 36
Views: 1364

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

bsteiner,

Thanks for the reply.

Any experience with Vanguard's trust company for both the admin. responsibilities and/ or the financial planning side for setting up a trust?

Thanks in advance.
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3153

Re: Buy PCRIX today?

I can guarantee if your 5% allocation of anything goes to ZERO it won't impact your financial future more then if you start tinkering with your IPS. As mentioned above sticking to good plan is much more important then trying to get to a perfect plan. In the real world of investing that means folks u...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy PCRIX today?
Replies: 27
Views: 2204

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

Here's a thread where bsteiner has written about dynasty trusts. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=129215 bsteiner, Great intro., but I think the OP is asking about trusts that last multiple generations or forever beyond the grantor. Can you speak a bit about dynasty trusts or...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3153

Re: Leeraar's Three-Holding Portfolio

I will throw out my usual, "It doesn't matter". It doesn't matter if you have one, two, or 20 funds. The key to investing has NOTHING to do with how many or few funds you have. Sometimes I think this board has taken a left turn to cult like mentality about how to invest. It is interesting ...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leeraar's Three-Holding Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 1969

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

bsteiner, Great intro., but I think the OP is asking about trusts that last multiple generations or forever beyond the grantor. Can you speak a bit about dynasty trusts or point us in the direction of the basics, i.e. articles or books? Any suggestions on corporate trustees would be useful as well. ...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3153

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

Great topic. I hope this is doable, because it is what I am doing last 5-7 years since finishing residency. The amount I and my wife have saved should allow us to be on autopilot after the age of 40. The bigger issue is will I or anyone else be able to just "shut it off" just because I hit...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 57
Views: 6929

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

What you are looking for is a dynasty trust. If this is set up in one of the states that does not have a law against perpetuity (many states are passing such laws to allow the banks and trust companies of these states to vie for this business) then the trust can last FOREVER. Actually, it is 21 year...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3153

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

Kahneman, Ariely, and other prominent BE researchers freely admit that the knowledge of cognitive biases has not protected them from making every mistake in the book. I always thought that their editors forced them to put that in their books. No, there have been some real interesting experiments th...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 77
Views: 3543

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

No doubt behavioral mistakes are the downfall
Of many investors. The issue i have is it is NOT useful
To know these issues without having a gameplan
On how to avoid them.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 77
Views: 3543

Re: Strange Billing Practice by Medical Provider

I'm an independent physician and agree I don't understand. Copays upfront is normal. I've also heard of paying the whole Thing up front And placing the onus of submitting the Claim to the patient. If u pay the whole thing and no one submits a claim sounds fishy and maybe illegal. Why would a patient...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Strange Billing Practice by Medical Provider
Replies: 38
Views: 2695

Re: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation

Thank you for starting this thread. This topic has a been a BIG pet peeve of mine. There are way TOO many "Should I do 2% in emerging small cap" vs. "How do I save more money" or "How do I get a higher paying job". I think it is VERY important newbies in investing devel...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1662

Re: DINK 200K household income - ways to reduce taxable inco

Alright, I have to put in my standard retort that the cost of kids is highly exaggerated by many people. One doesn't have to spend much money on their kids if they don't want to. Not sure if I agree. the cost of toys and clothes are optional. For two workers the cost of child care is real. It can e...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DINK 200K household income - ways to reduce taxable income?
Replies: 31
Views: 3575

Re: How would you handle this situation ?

In the immortal words of Nancy Regan from the 80's "Just say No". She was talking about drug use, but applies here as well. If the "group" is putting pressure on you to do stuff you don't want to then just say no. Easy solution to an easy problem to have. Personally, I would be t...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would you handle this situation ?
Replies: 33
Views: 2609

Re: Angry when stock market is down

If you are not doing anything based on the markets today why are you looking at them anyway? If you don't need the money today would you do anything different if it dropped 20% or went up 20%? The goal in investing is to get to indifference. That is the point where you don't care what the market is ...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 4015

Re: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house

If I was you I would just casually mention it to the parents. When you see them outside just "happen" to take a walk at the same time. As you introduce yourself just mention it to them. I would not like someone telling my kid what to do, but have NO problem someone telling me my kid is doi...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house
Replies: 55
Views: 3108

Re: The interesting friendship between Gold and SCV

Gold does well in a negative real interest rate environment so that would explain it doing well in the high inflationary periods of the 70's and 2000's. Maybe looking at SCV response to real interest rates as well? Not sure. In the end I don't think there is enough data points to make a strong concl...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The interesting friendship between Gold and SCV
Replies: 3
Views: 347

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

I can GAURANTEE that if one goes 100% SCV it will NOT be the plan that does them in. If anything does this person in will be not being able to follow through with said plan, i.e. not staying the course. I have seen numerous plans end up just fine at the end if one stays the course. I think we need l...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4512

Re: Future direction of U.S. stock market

The market will go up with periods of down and sideways mixed in. As long as one believes in capitalism those who provide the capital, i.e. shareholders should be rewarded. That does not mean it can't go sideways or down for LONG periods of time. As Taylor best put it in view of risk is what is your...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future direction of U.S. stock market
Replies: 23
Views: 2245

Re: Ideas for thanking a doctor

For me when a patient spends the time to just thank me for taking care of them and how much they appreciate the effort and care is worth everything. It doesn't happen as often as I would like, but every time it does it makes practicing medicine completely worth it! Funny how many times we (physician...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ideas for thanking a doctor
Replies: 74
Views: 4643

Re: Simplicity vs. Complexity

Oh dear lord. There are definitely reasons to hold simple vs. complex portfolio, but this thread is not one of them. The reasons to hold a simple one may be: That is what I have available in low cost investing options, I don't want to handle/think anymore then that, I am thinking about how my signif...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity vs. Complexity
Replies: 50
Views: 3319

Re: The importance of discipline

That's why you need to be able to think for yourself with this stuff. Posters who make their arguments by quoting legendary investors usually don't have very good arguments IMHO. Who is more likely to stay the course? The investor who says, "Jack Bogle says age in bonds so I'm age in bonds&quo...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The importance of discipline
Replies: 19
Views: 1364

Re: Employer finding out you have a financial cushion?

Maybe I'm naive, but I like to think my employer looks at me in terms of what value I bring to the operation and makes decisions that essentially affect retention based on those, and that my bank account balance has relatively little to do with it. In other words, that my employer is motivated by s...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer finding out you have a financial cushion?
Replies: 62
Views: 6128

Re: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?

Didn't have the time or will to read the other responses, but would love to highlight this thread for those learning about investing on how not understanding the basics of investing leads to ruin!! I am not even talking about trying for 25% return in a 2 yr. plan. I am just talking about the basics ...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1245

Re: Fidelity: Successful investors forget they have an acco

sounds amusing, but is a good reminder that staying the course is MORE important then asset allocation. Asset Allocation seems to get the deserved credit the last 20+ yrs., but at the expense of folks forgetting the stuff even MORE important: Saving, starting early, and staying the course. It seems ...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity: Successful investors forget they have an account
Replies: 25
Views: 3719

Re: Markets defy experts

The interesting this is not finding out that experts are often wrong in predicting of the movements of the markets, but that folks find it surprising when they are wrong. As I have said numerous times investing is A LOT easier when you just accept NO ONE knows what will happen in the future. Everyon...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets defy experts
Replies: 20
Views: 2423

Re: William Sharpe advises against rebalancing

I only have two things to add:

1. Much respect to Prof. Sharpe, but if he still believes the market is full of rational investors then he is as wrong as he was when the wrote about CAPM.
2. Simplegift simply has the BEST graphs I have ever seen consistently put on this forum!! :D

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Sharpe advises against rebalancing
Replies: 32
Views: 2623

Re: Surprising AA findings - comments?

On those lines there was a link to DFA presentation from Dimson, Marsh data I believe for the last 100+ yrs. of worldwide returns. The most interesting of the slides thought was when you looked at the WORST performing country's equity markets over an extended period of time throughout history. The w...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprising AA findings - comments?
Replies: 12
Views: 694

Re: Personal Finance advisor and 529 Help

Me and my wife both earn about 550K/year So you make a combined 1million+/ year? If so I would say reading and saving is the first order of business as your portfolio size does not add up to your salaries. I would start by reading some simple books, "How a second grader beat wall street" ...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance advisor and 529 Help
Replies: 7
Views: 487

Re: Did you reveal to your kids...your savings and salary

Agree with the poster to reassure your young child you have enough to put a roof over their head and food on the table. My father told me the same when I asked when I was real young. That was when he was in a top 10 income field in the WHOLE country in the 1980's. That was a good enough answer for m...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you reveal to your kids...your savings and salary
Replies: 75
Views: 6860

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Purchasing an indexed call contract involves no borrowing of money. Why not go from 100% to 105% stocks by investing 97% in stocks and 3% in indexed stock call options. What is the big extra risk here? The worst that can happen to the options is that they expire worthless and your portfolio is down...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5345

Re: Univ of Chicago [Active Manager Luck vs. Skill] Lubos Pa

As I have said before who cares if the market is INefficient allowing a few folks to make market beating returns. An investor is NOT writing an academic paper looking to become tenured by writing a ground breaking article. The "normal investor" should just want to know can a "Normal J...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Univ of Chicago [Active Manager Luck vs. Skill] Lubos Pastor
Replies: 7
Views: 843

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

This is a joke of a thread. Making fun of folks 100% stocks as if they are committing heresy is nonsense. Most "gurus" recommend trying to create an efficient portfolio. Well over long time horizons 100% stocks are the MOST efficient portfolio. Any point on the line from the MVP (minimum v...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5345

Re: Malpractice lawsuit from residency?

There are two types of malpractice coverages: Occurrence and claims based. Occurrence means you get the coverage for any possible claims during which they had coverage from the insurance company during that period of time. Claims based is when your coverage is only against possible claims while you ...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Malpractice lawsuit from residency?
Replies: 16
Views: 2574

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

I will throw my two cents in. You married a guy who holds ALL the power in the relationship. He holds the money, has other folks he loves that has no relationship with you (his other kids), and you signed a prenup. Your BIGGEST mistake is a combination of 1. Not talking about this before marriage an...
by staythecourse
Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 17355

Re: Burton Malkiel Opinion in WSJ -- "Are Stock Prices ..."

Who cares what Malkiel says. Just because he teaches at Princeton does NOT give him some extra insight into the future anymore then the psychic down the street. Folks need to stop idolizing "gurus" and then they will realize they are no more credible then anyone else. I am still waiting fo...
by staythecourse
Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel Opinion in WSJ -- "Are Stock Prices ..."
Replies: 26
Views: 3032

Re: Market Corrections — Befriending the Beast

Memory is always a funny thing. If most were asked about 1987 they would remember the 25% drop and not the year end +5% return. Either way who cares if the market is up or down in any given year. If your finances are so vulnerable to a one or even two year downturn in the market it is time to rethin...
by staythecourse
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Corrections — Befriending the Beast
Replies: 18
Views: 2889

Re: What are you up YTD?

Surprised to only see a few "who cares" answers. I am in the that category. Since I know it comes and goes like waves crashing over the rocks there is no point paying attention until I am 10 yr. out from retirement. At this point up 50% or down 50% would make no difference 20 yrs. later. B...
by staythecourse
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 101
Views: 7835

Re: The Extreme Outliers of the Investment Universe

Great chart and thanks for posting. Funny how the human mind works. Someone posts a chart showinf a few active investors have EVER beaten the index for an extended period of time and folks start the questioning. I would love to ask a math/ stats guy if this data is even outside of the mathematical p...
by staythecourse
Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Extreme Outliers of the Investment Universe
Replies: 31
Views: 3432

Re: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home

Pretty sure having kids is far worse. Who is going to write that article? I would agree BOTH make poor investments. Also for many marriage is a terrible investment as well. It is a good lesson in life to learn that not every decision we make in life are nor should be financially motivated. At the e...
by staythecourse
Fri Aug 08, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home
Replies: 135
Views: 16077

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

Umm.... NO. Another classic example of ex ante and ex post risk. Just because you look back and see that nothing bad happened being 100% in U.S., i.e. outcome, does not mean the strategy was sound. What if Mr. Bogle looked back at the 20 yr. period at the end of 1980's when Japan was kicking our but...
by staythecourse
Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12541

Re: global diversification works in long term

I second Taylor. Anywhere from 20% to market cap is reasonable based on investor's comfort and investment options available. If one is down to splitting hairs on 30 or 40% in foreign equity then I would say the have already won the game of investing and are now dancing on a pinhead. The key to inves...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global diversification works in long term
Replies: 21
Views: 1947

Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

1. Any post of Taylor that has nothing to do with finance, but just the wisdom he has developed over the many years of life. He has a way of conveying simple messages much the same way as Mr. Bogle, but still with profound meaning. 2. Don't remember the thread, but believe it was from nisiprius abou...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 29, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 53
Views: 5108

Re: NY Times Article - a case for index investing

Has anyone done a study like this using rolling time periods, or in some other way avoided allowing a short window of "less than stellar" performance (or even outright "bad" performance) having a possibly otherwise "good" active fund/managers get dropped? Mr. Bogle in ...
by staythecourse
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times Article - a case for index investing
Replies: 23
Views: 2964

Re: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH

Why does anyone even listen to any expert? If one believes in markets are efficient enough (which is likely most folks) then spending anytime listening to Mr. Grantham is as worthwhile as listening to the fortune teller down the street. Let me guess he is predicting timber to have high expected retu...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH
Replies: 16
Views: 2188

Re: NPR: Net Price Of Private Non-Profit College

My short opinion is, like in most stuff in life, it is a crapshoot if it will be worth it or not. It is the usual fallacy of man to think he/ she can control many aspects of life, i.e. if I get into this school it will mean... Someone on this forum did provide a link to a site that rated all schools...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NPR: Net Price Of Private Non-Profit College
Replies: 36
Views: 3330
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