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Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

When I'm working, I'm much more likely to go to the gym, cook myself dinner, make plans with friends, and generally live a fuller and more enriched life than when I have nothing I have to be doing all day long. Very interesting... I'm exactly the opposite.. I work out MORE when I'm on vacation, bec...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3735

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Before making any changes it would be wise to read the Vanguard paper on predictors of stocks returns. Its results showed a PE1 and PE10 were nearly identical in predicting future returns (something like 0.37 and 0.41). So neither were useful. BUT... It does mention in the text that the R2 goes up s...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 8
Views: 440

Re: Lawyer fee question?

Hi all, I am going to talk to my lawyer today afternoon after he looks over the bills. To the other poster the only firm deadline was the court date which was 2+ months away from when we decided to start settlement discussions. I am not a lawyer, but that seems like PLENTY of time to get everything ...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2010

Re: Lawyer fee question?

Hi all thanks for the input. Date X as I mentioned was the date that my lawyers discussed with me the other side wanted to settle and start talking about numbers. It was their advice that I should strongly consider it which is why I agreed to shift the process to settlement discussion. The date for ...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 28, 2014 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2010

Re: Lawyer fee question?

I am not one to "stiff" another professional and if I had a fee arrangement contract that addressed this I would not be asking on here. :D I just wanted to know if it is normal practice to be billing for doing a preliminary injunction same time as handling the settlement after the date I d...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2010

Lawyer fee question?

Hi all, Hoping to get some of the lawyers out there to chime in on their opinion. I am in the middle of lawsuit with my former employer. The are suing me for contractual breaches. They went for a TRO which I won. We were in the process of preparing for a preliminary injunction. In the middle of prep...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 28, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2010

Re: Thank you Alex Frakt and Larry Auton!!

I'm not one to be easily impressed, but must say what you two have accomplished is really remarkable. I hope the owners realize how great of a forum/ community they have created for us. Also, how much this site has surely helped the casual passerby. I EASILY recommend this site to everyone I know wh...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank you Alex Frakt and Larry Auton!!
Replies: 11
Views: 1075

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

Either one chooses volatility on one side (100% equity) or inflation risk (100% fixed income) on the other side or some point in between. Good luck. I agree. Which choice poses more risk in distribution portfolio? Great question. I would probably have to say it depends. The factors on the volatilit...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 4926

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

If you believe Vanguard's latest forecasts of future returns in their 2014 Economic and Investment Outlook, their models project 10-year, average real returns for a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio in the 3.1% -5.2% range. As a retired investor with a low risk tolerance, five-year CD's paying 3% would ...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 4926

Re: History of U.S. Inflation — Appearances Can Be Deceiving

Jason Zweig in his edition of "Intelligent Investor" has an excellent graph where he shows stock returns in order of CPI. Stocks do best in slow rise inflationary periods. They do poorly in extremes (high inflation and deflation). David Darst in "Art of Asset Allocation" presents...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Inflation — Appearances Can Be Deceiving
Replies: 16
Views: 2321

Re: Young Investor (in High School) with $15k to invest

I will give you the same advice that applies to ALL young investors. The best way to make a TON of money is not to invest it in stocks or bonds. Invest it in yourself. Save the money for college. Get the best education you can in the highest paying field you like. That is what is going to make you w...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor (in High School) with $15k to invest
Replies: 13
Views: 1251

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

The post isn't about commodities...you have to read between the lines you see... The post is about behavioral finance and an investors decision to abandon a well thought out asset allocation because of recent under-performance or a perceived further decline in an investment. Substitute commodities/...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4009

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I've mentioned on here numerous times folks in active funds take on a type of uncompensated risk that I call manager risk. It looks like it just showed up for PIMCO investors. I used to write about what would happen if Mr. Gross had a sudden heart attack/ stroke or be hit by a car and could no longe...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8011

Re: [S&P is down 1.3% !!!]

Maybe a good time to remember even after the worst investing day in recent memory (1987 crash) the market ended up +5% by the end of that year. Great line from Mr. Bogle: "When everyone is doing something the best thing is to stand still and do nothing". Or something to that effect. Good l...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [S&P is down 1.3%, thus] We're all going to die!!!
Replies: 58
Views: 4718

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

Interesting as I am considering this option now. I was going to continue to work my tail off to retire in my mid to late 40's, but then realized I have nothing I am running to and actually like what I do. My wife is 5 years younger and loves what she does so no chance on her retiring early with me. ...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3735

Re: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all

By the way, did you fully read my post? I did and completely agree with you. The light shined on me when I looked at a couple of books showing the autocorrelation of returns from small cap, large cap, government bonds, and corporate bonds from one year to the next was a big, fat ZERO. As we all kno...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all day
Replies: 60
Views: 5400

Re: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all

. Anyone with 10, 20 years of added accumulation, shouldn't be focused on any one specific day, or month, or perhaps even year (other than to rebalance). That said, I wonder how many are "freaking" out as I write. Some ETFs of interest (to me). VBR 100.60 -1.32 VCIT 85.82 0.15 VCSH 79.93 ...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all day
Replies: 60
Views: 5400

Re: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all

My answer is the usual "who cares". If you don't need the money soon why do you care if it is up, down, or sideways? I just don't understand why folks care what happens to money that is being put aside for something 20 yrs. later? Example is your house. Most will eventually sell their hous...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all day
Replies: 60
Views: 5400

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

In many of those situations I think you will find that gold did save the investor. It is largely insurance against black swans, and those show up a lot more frequently than expected. Can you provide some specific examples in which gold "saved" the investor? When and what were the specific...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Worst case 30 year % annualised real (US$) since 1900 Russia -100 Germany -99.16 Austria -98.57 Japan -97.21 France -66.93 Spain -57.36 Italy -54.65 Belgium -53.6 Netherlands -52.31 Norway -40.4 Sweden -39.56 Finland -37.32 Equal weight 20 countries yearly rebalanced worst 30 year annualised real +...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Is having 100% large cap not diverse enough?

I will give my usual answer to most questions: "It doesn't matter". You have more then enough diversification using your market cap approach. If you want more diversification with small and value premiums then it is time to read (if one is interested) and see if it is right for you. In the...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is having 100% large cap not diverse enough?
Replies: 49
Views: 2810

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

I myself arrived at the gold party late and left early. In 2009 when GLD was 93.13 I bought some as part of a HBPP. It was interesting to watch gold and LT Treasuries zig when stocks zagged. It worked on a daily basis. When stocks went down 2%, gold and TLT offset it. Yes, the theory seemed to work...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4009

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

If you are unfortunate and end up with a portfolio value that matches or just beats bonds, you probably did not achieve your goal of having enough for retirement, which is the best definition of risk. Beating bonds is not in itself success. Can't speak for others, but I wouldn't be upset. If the WO...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 23, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

So, it seems we have some Bogleheads arguing for gold? I would have expected a few attaboys for finally seeing the light. :wink: The reason you are hearing some skepticism is not because folks believe or don't believe in gold. The reason is no matter how you are presenting it there is a good chance...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4009

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

This paper is my favorite on the topic. John Norstad used to post here a bit. http://www.norstad.org/finance/risk-and-time.html I see this mentioned over and over again as if this article is some holy grail of finance theory. He, like others, can write as much theory and mathematical equations they...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Do as you wish, but anytime when folks make moves to decrease the amount of asset x when asset x is not doing well makes me wonder if there is some rationalization and/ or intellectualizing going on. These are two very strong defense mechanisms I see folks employ when justifying changing the IPS whe...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4009

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

It stands to reason equity risk decreases over time. The longer you're in the market, the more likely you are to get a higher expected annual return. If you're in a year, you could always endure a temporary setback. It doesn't stand to reason at all. The reason equities have a higher expected retur...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

It depends entirely on one's definition of risk. If one perceives risk to be the chance that an equity portfolio will underperform a bond-heavy portfolio, then the historical record suggests that such risk declines with time. However, if one perceives risk as variations in the final wealth value of...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

bsteiner,

Thanks for the reply.

Any experience with Vanguard's trust company for both the admin. responsibilities and/ or the financial planning side for setting up a trust?

Thanks in advance.
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3216

Re: Buy PCRIX today?

I can guarantee if your 5% allocation of anything goes to ZERO it won't impact your financial future more then if you start tinkering with your IPS. As mentioned above sticking to good plan is much more important then trying to get to a perfect plan. In the real world of investing that means folks u...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy PCRIX today?
Replies: 31
Views: 2607

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

Here's a thread where bsteiner has written about dynasty trusts. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=129215 bsteiner, Great intro., but I think the OP is asking about trusts that last multiple generations or forever beyond the grantor. Can you speak a bit about dynasty trusts or...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3216

Re: Leeraar's Three-Holding Portfolio

I will throw out my usual, "It doesn't matter". It doesn't matter if you have one, two, or 20 funds. The key to investing has NOTHING to do with how many or few funds you have. Sometimes I think this board has taken a left turn to cult like mentality about how to invest. It is interesting ...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leeraar's Three-Holding Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 2124

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

bsteiner, Great intro., but I think the OP is asking about trusts that last multiple generations or forever beyond the grantor. Can you speak a bit about dynasty trusts or point us in the direction of the basics, i.e. articles or books? Any suggestions on corporate trustees would be useful as well. ...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3216

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

Great topic. I hope this is doable, because it is what I am doing last 5-7 years since finishing residency. The amount I and my wife have saved should allow us to be on autopilot after the age of 40. The bigger issue is will I or anyone else be able to just "shut it off" just because I hit...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7354

Re: Creating a permanent legacy?

What you are looking for is a dynasty trust. If this is set up in one of the states that does not have a law against perpetuity (many states are passing such laws to allow the banks and trust companies of these states to vie for this business) then the trust can last FOREVER. Actually, it is 21 year...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating a permanent legacy?
Replies: 46
Views: 3216

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

Kahneman, Ariely, and other prominent BE researchers freely admit that the knowledge of cognitive biases has not protected them from making every mistake in the book. I always thought that their editors forced them to put that in their books. No, there have been some real interesting experiments th...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 77
Views: 3601

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

No doubt behavioral mistakes are the downfall
Of many investors. The issue i have is it is NOT useful
To know these issues without having a gameplan
On how to avoid them.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 77
Views: 3601

Re: Strange Billing Practice by Medical Provider

I'm an independent physician and agree I don't understand. Copays upfront is normal. I've also heard of paying the whole Thing up front And placing the onus of submitting the Claim to the patient. If u pay the whole thing and no one submits a claim sounds fishy and maybe illegal. Why would a patient...
by staythecourse
Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Strange Billing Practice by Medical Provider
Replies: 38
Views: 2722

Re: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation

Thank you for starting this thread. This topic has a been a BIG pet peeve of mine. There are way TOO many "Should I do 2% in emerging small cap" vs. "How do I save more money" or "How do I get a higher paying job". I think it is VERY important newbies in investing devel...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1668

Re: DINK 200K household income - ways to reduce taxable inco

Alright, I have to put in my standard retort that the cost of kids is highly exaggerated by many people. One doesn't have to spend much money on their kids if they don't want to. Not sure if I agree. the cost of toys and clothes are optional. For two workers the cost of child care is real. It can e...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DINK 200K household income - ways to reduce taxable income?
Replies: 31
Views: 3595

Re: How would you handle this situation ?

In the immortal words of Nancy Regan from the 80's "Just say No". She was talking about drug use, but applies here as well. If the "group" is putting pressure on you to do stuff you don't want to then just say no. Easy solution to an easy problem to have. Personally, I would be t...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would you handle this situation ?
Replies: 33
Views: 2618

Re: Angry when stock market is down

If you are not doing anything based on the markets today why are you looking at them anyway? If you don't need the money today would you do anything different if it dropped 20% or went up 20%? The goal in investing is to get to indifference. That is the point where you don't care what the market is ...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 4160

Re: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house

If I was you I would just casually mention it to the parents. When you see them outside just "happen" to take a walk at the same time. As you introduce yourself just mention it to them. I would not like someone telling my kid what to do, but have NO problem someone telling me my kid is doi...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house
Replies: 55
Views: 3130

Re: The interesting friendship between Gold and SCV

Gold does well in a negative real interest rate environment so that would explain it doing well in the high inflationary periods of the 70's and 2000's. Maybe looking at SCV response to real interest rates as well? Not sure. In the end I don't think there is enough data points to make a strong concl...
by staythecourse
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The interesting friendship between Gold and SCV
Replies: 3
Views: 351

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

I can GAURANTEE that if one goes 100% SCV it will NOT be the plan that does them in. If anything does this person in will be not being able to follow through with said plan, i.e. not staying the course. I have seen numerous plans end up just fine at the end if one stays the course. I think we need l...
by staythecourse
Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4568

Re: Future direction of U.S. stock market

The market will go up with periods of down and sideways mixed in. As long as one believes in capitalism those who provide the capital, i.e. shareholders should be rewarded. That does not mean it can't go sideways or down for LONG periods of time. As Taylor best put it in view of risk is what is your...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future direction of U.S. stock market
Replies: 23
Views: 2302

Re: Ideas for thanking a doctor

For me when a patient spends the time to just thank me for taking care of them and how much they appreciate the effort and care is worth everything. It doesn't happen as often as I would like, but every time it does it makes practicing medicine completely worth it! Funny how many times we (physician...
by staythecourse
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ideas for thanking a doctor
Replies: 75
Views: 4879

Re: Simplicity vs. Complexity

Oh dear lord. There are definitely reasons to hold simple vs. complex portfolio, but this thread is not one of them. The reasons to hold a simple one may be: That is what I have available in low cost investing options, I don't want to handle/think anymore then that, I am thinking about how my signif...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity vs. Complexity
Replies: 50
Views: 3337

Re: The importance of discipline

That's why you need to be able to think for yourself with this stuff. Posters who make their arguments by quoting legendary investors usually don't have very good arguments IMHO. Who is more likely to stay the course? The investor who says, "Jack Bogle says age in bonds so I'm age in bonds&quo...
by staythecourse
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The importance of discipline
Replies: 19
Views: 1367

Re: Employer finding out you have a financial cushion?

Maybe I'm naive, but I like to think my employer looks at me in terms of what value I bring to the operation and makes decisions that essentially affect retention based on those, and that my bank account balance has relatively little to do with it. In other words, that my employer is motivated by s...
by staythecourse
Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer finding out you have a financial cushion?
Replies: 72
Views: 8127
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