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Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

I like Wellington, based on past performance :happy What? Don't look at me like that :wink: I must admit that Wellington fits into my definition of "guilty pleasure" for a knowledgeable investor. It is just a nice well designed, low cost actively managed product that has been around FOREV...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 14
Views: 1303

Re: Do you regret buying your home?

Lived in our home for last 4 years and would NEVER make a change. In our area the options to rent are slim to none. We have 2 year old now and trying for another so it is a great feeling knowing we are making all these new experiences in a place we have full control over.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you regret buying your home?
Replies: 55
Views: 3141

Re: Should I Sue?

Call a lawyer. That is what they do for a living as just one example, how does the water get to the sofa ? through he roof is not a flood etcetc etc If you do this I would call SEVERAL lawyers to get a collective opinion. No doubt you will find one that will say you have a case. Unless they are on ...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Sue? [couch damaged in garage of rental]
Replies: 23
Views: 1298

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Rebalancing is an act to maintain the same risk profile of the portfolio as originally planned. In this respect don't think there is a difference between 2 or 10 funds. The act of rebalancing itself is the important part. Diversification benefit is the act of hoping by rebalancing that one can not o...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 21
Views: 886

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

No one knows anything. In predicting the markets and economy that is basically the truth. I would say once I realized that (luckily within my first year of investing) it makes investing SUPER EASY. If anyone watches the markets on a daily basis just in one year how could anyone think there is a rhym...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 21
Views: 2572

Re: Daycare educational material for 3 year old

My wife (not me) was hardcore to find a pre-preschool vs. a daycare. She went about asking the administrator where the kids went to school after they finished, i.e. gifted, classical, magnet, private, public. She wanted to go with the one where a large portion went to gifted and classical. Now that ...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daycare educational material for 3 year old
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

USO is intended to track spot oil prices, not sure how well they do. That is not correct. ALL commodity funds outside of gold, silver, and metals are priced on the futures market. That is the whole point of the futures market. One can not buy and store billions of barrels of oil or thousands of pig...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 31
Views: 1377

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

USO is intended to track spot oil prices, not sure how well they do. That is not correct. ALL commodity funds outside of gold, silver, and metals are priced on the futures market. That is the whole point of the futures market. One can not buy and store billions of barrels of oil or thousands of pig...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 31
Views: 1377

Re: Bogle and dry powder

I've heard him say quite plainly that stocks have the highest expected return but most investors do not have the stomach for a 100% stock portfolio, that's why it's recommended to invest in bonds. When he uses the phrase "dry powder" it seems to me that he's saying "money not exposed...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle and dry powder
Replies: 25
Views: 1510

Re: Making an offer today

^ the showing cards of seller is pretty much known thru Trulia-Zillow-Redfin. Seller is holding a fairly weak hand. OP has stronger cards. With such a low offer, the question is whether the offer is large enough to cover the existing mortgage. And if it doesn't, then will the mortgage holder accept...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making an offer today
Replies: 44
Views: 4594

Re: Making an offer today

Interesting that the owner showed you her cards (if it is the truth) with the exact number she is looking for. As I mentioned before do not fall in love with the place. This goes for picturing yourself in the property already as that is a form of falling in love with residential property. There is n...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making an offer today
Replies: 44
Views: 4594

Re: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold

I would think anchoring (or at least its negative connotation) is in reference to folks buying a security and looking to sell the security again for a quick profit, i.e. market timing. For those folks they will continue to want to hold the security hoping the price will eventually come back up. If y...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold
Replies: 15
Views: 1395

Re: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)

It is odd, but I have NEVER been invited to a dinner or talk. I feel slighted in some weird way. Of course, I would still say no, but wanted to be included. I'm a physician married to a physician so would think I should have a huge bullseye on my back and front. I am hoping one day to be invited jus...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)
Replies: 68
Views: 3965

Re: Valuations and the AA decision

staythecourse Anyone can do that for themselves. Just invert the CAPE and compare to bond yields. Or better CD yields since they are higher and just as riskless. That's the point I made ---just because valuations are high doesn't mean stocks will underperform. And no one knows the "right"...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and the AA decision
Replies: 8
Views: 905

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I'm not an engineer, but agree with the other folks in that I think engineers are some of the best investors. They are by nature and profession data driven and unemotional in their decision making. Those qualities make them terrible at other aspects of their life, but is a great plus when it comes t...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 107
Views: 5896

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

I'm not going to take the advice of anyone who can't see that a TSM index fund is superior to a S&P 500 Index fund. Umm... No. One is not any better then the other. They just follow different indexes with one (SP500) constituting 70% of the other (TSM). No surprise over the long run they have b...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3220

Re: Sell bonds to buy real estate?

Nothing wrong with real estate, but there is something wrong with not seeing the all the negatives of such opaque and illiquid investment as real estate development. Do as you wish, but I would put the chances of a real estate virgin being successful financially from trying to make a 20% profit as t...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell bonds to buy real estate?
Replies: 10
Views: 914

Re: Valuations and the AA decision

Mr. Swedroe, Good article. I was hoping you could put some of those returns in context to what an investor's other options might have been at those same time points in fixed income. For example: P/E of 25 gave stock returns of x%, but if you were in 10 yr. treasury at that same time it would have gi...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and the AA decision
Replies: 8
Views: 905

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

The author is pining for the high inflation days of the 1970s because back then, you could pick up bonds at 15% nominal interest. Funny how the human mind works. In 2010 or so when interest rates were near zero I found it funny that folks were wishing for the those good old late 70's again. I would...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 47
Views: 6040

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

Folks should always do what is comfortable, but I have said numerous times the bond investors on this site are the folks who do not seem to understand that there is no free lunch. Folks want the diversification, i.e."if stocks go down I know my bonds will soften the blow", but yet the same...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3220

Re: Alternative Investments!

Be careful not to treat alternative investments as a free pass to speculate. That is NOT what it is. If you want to do that then set up a play account instead (which many have). The idea of alternatives is they behave differently in risk, return, and correlation to the other major assets: Stocks, bo...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments!
Replies: 5
Views: 480

Re: "I've had it" at work - how often

Great thread. I used to be in the 70/30 crowd. Love my work (physician taking care of patients) and hated the admin folks overseeing the daily chores. They were incompetent and frustrating to work with as the moves they made no medical or financial sense for the practice. It was hard to listen to so...
by staythecourse
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I've had it" at work - how often
Replies: 151
Views: 12255

Re: Making an offer today

Good luck. Don't worry about what the agent says for an offer range. Remember that the agent works for the seller. I had an agent tell me that anything more than 5% below the asking price would be an insult. My present house was listed for $380k. I offered $225k. I bought it for $226.5k. I don't li...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making an offer today
Replies: 44
Views: 4594

Re: Feeling very fortunate today!

nevermind the skeptics. i would work longer if you feel that you need to, for financial security. Yes, the first few years are critical in retirement. Everyone's situation and risk tolerance are different. Yes the first decade in retirement is critical, but... 1. Who cares? It isn't like you can pr...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feeling very fortunate today!
Replies: 52
Views: 6134

Re: Making an offer today

Now the negotiation begins. It will be interesting. I really like this property, but from the listing price I think the owners may value it more than I do. I guess we will find out soonif we share any middle ground. I have a number in my head that I know I can walk away happy. So I guess there is n...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making an offer today
Replies: 44
Views: 4594

Re: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?

If you have other reasons to move I would say go for it, because of the OTHER reasons NOT because of your condition. The treatment needed can be had anywhere and don't think it makes much difference where it is had especially with your diagnosis. That hasn't been true in my experience. All the subu...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?
Replies: 47
Views: 3552

Re: "The best response to market volatility"

Just an invitation and rationalization for a typical self destructive panic sale - albeit not the full on "I'm out"? I mean if you're 70:30 and you decide today after losing 5-6% that you'd like to be 50:50 after all, you'd sell to get there.I'd say the time to "ask yourself" wh...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The best response to market volatility"
Replies: 27
Views: 3339

Re: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?

Before I make any changes I would sincerely ask your hematologist if ANY of these changes are even warranted (sorry did not see if you mentioned this previously). My hem/onc estimates that if I keep my counts well controlled my risk of a thrombotic event is about 2X an age-matched control. This is ...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?
Replies: 47
Views: 3552

Re: How did you get from $1M to $10M

The only reasonable way to do this would be to save A LOT more then you are. Saving 5 digits a year is not going to cut it. That will get you that number in 30 years when that 10 million is no longer worth 10 million. I would aim to save 200k+ at least per year for the next 10-20 years. You will lik...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you get from $1M to $10M
Replies: 46
Views: 4021

Re: Dealing with Volatility

Nobody complains about volatility when things are going up. +1. Amazing that folks never seem to understand this VERY basic concept of volatility. As I describe it to others volatility is a coin with two sides: one is heads (return) and the other is tails (risk). It is the same thing but in differe...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with Volatility
Replies: 14
Views: 1118

Re: Dealing with Volatility

I believe it is the Milton Friedman or maybe Ben Graham himself who once said (paraphrasing) it is the duty of the long term investor to experience losses in their journey to long term return of stocks. So not only is it normal he felt it so strongly to consider it a duty that goes along with stock ...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with Volatility
Replies: 14
Views: 1118

Re: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?

I apologize upfront if this post is too personal or insensitive. I'm a physician and my wife is a hematologist so I have quite a bit of background on your condition. I would not say your condition is one that requires ANY of these drastic moves. What I can tell from taking care engineers and compute...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?
Replies: 47
Views: 3552

Re: Feeling very fortunate today!

In psychology they would call this rationalization and/or intellectualization. I do agree with a poster above. If this small shift had you reconsider your entire retirement plan I think this is a BIG red flag. I think you need to either work longer, work partime, lower your retirement needs, cut bac...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feeling very fortunate today!
Replies: 52
Views: 6134

Re: investing in bear market

Why does it matter if the market is up or down? If you have a 60/40 allocation then there must have been a reason you chose that. If the market was up 20% or down 20% shouldn't change that. Sometimes I really do think good intentioned folks would do better just not thinking and just be a robot each ...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in bear market
Replies: 29
Views: 2245

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

I do agree the best is to look at the possibility of dollars one can lose on a downswing. I will add to that it is not just about the amount of dollars, but WHEN you need those dollars. If I lost 500k and didn't need that money for 20+ years I still think it is no big deal. If I lost 100k and needed...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28414

Re: Recent statistics of college majors

Great link. The first few sentences sum up what I have been preaching for years. It is NOT where you go to school, but what field you go into that determines how much you make. This presentation seems to be heavily in favor of STEM and specific pro-engineering. Did I just miss the health care fields...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recent statistics of college majors
Replies: 35
Views: 2654

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

I'll say the same thing I always say, "Who cares?". If you aren't needing the money now or tomorrow why do you care what Mr. Market says? Besides why do so many folks watch the markets on a day to day basis? If we know the market goes up and down for no reason in the short term then why do...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28414

Re: Offered Cash Balance Plan - RED FLAGS? (physician)

No offense and not to be cynical, but don't think it matters what you or your wife think. If she works for a big employer it ONLY matters how seducible the one calling the shots in HR or on the benefits committee is to the financial advisors pitching the product. If you have questions/ reservations ...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Offered Cash Balance Plan - RED FLAGS? (physician)
Replies: 16
Views: 864

Re: the importance of asset allocation

Asset allocation determines the expected risk and return of a portfolio. David Swensen, Yale University CIO, and author of the excellent investment book "Unconventional Success", has written some excellent advice on this subject. He has noted that asset allocation is responsible for 90% o...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the importance of asset allocation
Replies: 16
Views: 1476

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

Browser Sharpe is clearly correct, it's not set it and forget it. That's why one IMO should on regular basis rerun MCS to help you determine the right withdrawal rate based on current valuations Larry I am not sure that is the best way either. Not sure why folks are having a hard problem with withd...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4615

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

Oh dear god. Does it take a genius to figure this out? I have been saying the same things for YEARS (many times on this same site) and now that Bill Sharpe says it folks start thinking, "I guess that makes sense". This is a perfect example of what I wrote on another thread. Folks need to s...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4615

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

I love how much belittling I get on this message board. I got a few genuine pieces of advice. Thank you for those. My post seems to be more the butt of jokes. I don't take it personally, but I wish the criticisms has more constructive input. I guess my take away from them should be its too much ris...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 20451

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

People seem to have a rather variable definition of a "basket". If someone knows what he is doing and knows the stocks he owns as well as his children if not better, I wouldn't call someone whose portfolio consisted of 10 individual stocks crazy by any measure, but 1-2 is just plain stupi...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 216
Views: 21165

Re: Who should regularly contribute to taxable investments?

If your monthly income well exceeds your expenses and your ability to stash investment dollars away in tax deferred spaces, regular monthly investments into a taxable personal account is a great idea. If you're doing this I suggest TSM as the vehicle of choice because: 1. It is very tax efficient (...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who should regularly contribute to taxable investments?
Replies: 34
Views: 3543

Re: Gold: Is now the time?

I have no idea why someone would buy just gold instead of a diversified basket of commodities. Holding a small allocation to Collaterallized Commodity Futures (about 5%-10% of your equity allocation) can add diversification to a stock/bond portfolio, and will allow you to take on more duration risk...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: Is now the time?
Replies: 36
Views: 2297

Re: Gold: Is now the time?

The thing that's the same with gold and CCF is that they are both dead weight as long-term investments. That is utter nonsense. If you don't like an asset class great, but what you claim is not correct. There are time where adding gold to a portfolio produced better returns and/ or risk adjusted re...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: Is now the time?
Replies: 36
Views: 2297

Re: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out

Sorry to hear it. Amazing how some folks could be so irresponsible. They sign a contract to buy and then change their mind the day before? I am sure his "emotions" did not just start the day before. Either way I agree with others. Take the earnest money and put the limited time you have av...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out
Replies: 60
Views: 5073

Re: Gold: Is now the time?

I have no idea why someone would buy just gold instead of a diversified basket of commodities. Holding a small allocation to Collaterallized Commodity Futures (about 5%-10% of your equity allocation) can add diversification to a stock/bond portfolio, and will allow you to take on more duration risk...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: Is now the time?
Replies: 36
Views: 2297

Re: Losing money, please advise

For those who get nervous about your investments just imagine if someone came by one day and knocked on your door and offered your 1 million for your 200k house. As you are getting excited the next day he comes by and when you are about to sign he now offers 100k for the same house. You logically as...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Losing money, please advise
Replies: 36
Views: 5014

Re: Gold: Is now the time?

Boy along with politics and religion gold seems to have very visceral reactions to folks. I agree with one of the posters above that it is the DUTY of all responsible investors to read about the benefits, risks, and role of EVERY asset/ subasset before including or excluding it in one's portfolio. I...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: Is now the time?
Replies: 36
Views: 2297
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