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Re: NY Times Article - a case for index investing

Has anyone done a study like this using rolling time periods, or in some other way avoided allowing a short window of "less than stellar" performance (or even outright "bad" performance) having a possibly otherwise "good" active fund/managers get dropped? Mr. Bogle in ...
by staythecourse
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times Article - a case for index investing
Replies: 23
Views: 2874

Re: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH

Why does anyone even listen to any expert? If one believes in markets are efficient enough (which is likely most folks) then spending anytime listening to Mr. Grantham is as worthwhile as listening to the fortune teller down the street. Let me guess he is predicting timber to have high expected retu...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH
Replies: 16
Views: 2143

Re: NPR: Net Price Of Private Non-Profit College

My short opinion is, like in most stuff in life, it is a crapshoot if it will be worth it or not. It is the usual fallacy of man to think he/ she can control many aspects of life, i.e. if I get into this school it will mean... Someone on this forum did provide a link to a site that rated all schools...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NPR: Net Price Of Private Non-Profit College
Replies: 36
Views: 3210

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

You're missing the point!..... The high percentage portfolio Fixed Income Investors should be in retirement. They aren't looking to break even. They are spending down their portfolios. In the Time Frame you are talking about they're dead. I agree with that, but the issue then becomes why doesn't ev...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2853

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

The learning point: When single country stocks it a LONG dry spell don't expect a bond or cash heavy investor to do any better. Yeah but the bond and cash heavy investor didn't lose as much in the crash as the stock investor did. The learning point : Having Bonds and Cash is not about making money,...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2853

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

Forget about complicated charts to make one's point. Can't remember if it was Robert T or someone else who had an link to an excellent DFA slide presentation looking at 100 yrs. of stocks, bonds, bill returns globally from Dimson Marsh data. In that slide presentation it showed that the worst 5 stre...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2853

Re: Transfer of assets to child. Tax strategy

Why make such a simple issue more difficult? Just give her the money and subtract it from your 10million dollar estate exemption. If you expect more then 10 million in estate in the future you will have bigger issues of estate planning then worrying about tax on a simple 120k.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Transfer of assets to child. Tax strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 1124

Re: Taxed advantage and expense ratios!

Basic question is: the Extended market portion of stocks (mid+small) going to give a return> 1% (the difference of replacing PIMCO fund with Vanguard total bond) going forward? Since there are too many unknowns in life I would take the definite of saving the ER of getting rid of the PIMCO fund. Othe...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxed advantage and expense ratios!
Replies: 3
Views: 239

Re: Hospital bill negotiation

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hospital bill negotiation
Replies: 49
Views: 4141

Re: Persistence of SV performance

And here again are those lifetime to date returns for actual Vanguard index funds: Large Growth (VIGRX) : 9.28% Large Value (VIVAX): 9.59% Small Growth (VISGX): 8.95% Small Value (VISVX): 8.95% With persistence like this, who needs randomness? So, basically 30-60 bps difference is the failure for S...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Persistence of SV performance
Replies: 71
Views: 3792

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

Okay I'll bite and say no problem with this idea with a few caveats. Holding U.S. SCV still opens yourself to geographical risk, political risk, and currency risk of having all your investments tied to the U.S. Who says another country couldn't take over the U.S. orthe dollar fall to a second rate c...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 6112

Re: Why not include gold?

You can't eat gold. Maybe you could throw a brick of gold at some prey. Otherwise, I fail to see how it will help in a financial/economic meltdown or crises. Stockpile food and weapons if this is what you're actually worried about, though. I do agree if there is a total meltdown of civilization foo...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not include gold?
Replies: 48
Views: 3768

Re: Why not include gold?

The same argument can be made for owning a home vs. renting. If one makes money is pure speculation, i.e. how much another is willing to pay for it, yet most responsible investors like owning anyway. Good luck. Owning vs renting a home can be treated as a simple economic decision. Sometimes owning ...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not include gold?
Replies: 48
Views: 3768

Re: Wife was hit by car while riding on bicyle. Next Step?

My opinion, get a good personal injury lawyer. If you have a lawyer you trust in other dealings ask them for recs. No offense to lawyers, but this is an area that seems RIPE for creepy, slimy individuals to specialize in, I.e. ambulance chasers. Worst case scenario you will at least know your rights...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife was hit by car while riding on bicyle. Next Step?
Replies: 46
Views: 5541

Re: Why not include gold?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Why spend or invest your money when no return is to be had?


The same argument can be made for owning a home vs. renting. If one makes money is pure speculation, i.e. how much another is willing to pay for it, yet most responsible investors like owning anyway.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not include gold?
Replies: 48
Views: 3768

Re: Why not include gold?

Personally, I have two issues with gold (or silver for that matter) as an investment. First, there is too much emotion behind price fluctuations. Second, it's difficult to acquire without paying large transaction costs. Funny the idea behind emotions causing price fluctuations is the reason I do li...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not include gold?
Replies: 48
Views: 3768

Re: Future plan with recent lung cancer diagnosis

Thanks everyone. Some good advice and wishes. Think all my legal docs are up to date. Just redid my estate plan last year after changing residence to AZ. Update: PET/CT scan tomorrow . Video assisted Right Lower Lobectomy fast tracked for next Monday. Would appreciate additional ideas if anyone has...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Future plan with recent lung cancer diagnosis
Replies: 25
Views: 3809

Re: Why not include gold?

As I have said numerous times it is EVERY investor's responsibility to understand the adv. and disadv. of EVERY asset class and decide for themselves if it has a role in their portfolio. For example: Folks often wonder why Harry Browne of PP fame did not include international equities into his portf...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not include gold?
Replies: 48
Views: 3768

Re: Best way to start building wealth as a teenager

Best way to build wealth as a youngster is ignore most of the information given above and just get a good education and the highest paid job in a field in you like. No matter what other opinions you get the easiest way to build wealth is to invest as much as you can and that takes a good education/ ...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to start building wealth as a teenager
Replies: 28
Views: 2321

Re: Future plan with recent lung cancer diagnosis

Way too early to start planning for the worst without having staging done yet. Get all your w/u done pronto so you have an idea of where you are, treatment options, and prognosis. No matter what at this age you should have your wife (who usually live longer anyway) update with all the finances, your...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Future plan with recent lung cancer diagnosis
Replies: 25
Views: 3809

Re: One Total Stock Market Index Fund or 3-4 Sub-Funds?

I would say this argument of TSM vs. slice/ dice should have a MAJOR disclaimer of "assuming one can stay the course". If one is TSM vs. another who is slice and dice, but can't stay the course I think it would be obvious who would do better and vice versa. It is the ability to stay the co...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Total Stock Market Index Fund or 3-4 Sub-Funds?
Replies: 19
Views: 3387

Re: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?

Here are my 5 keys to successful investing: 1. Save as much as you can so you can invest as much as you can as early as you can 2. Asset allocation is king to decrease risk of major loss 3. Avoid active management as it is a loser's game 4. Be aware costs, taxes, and inflation eat into long term ret...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?
Replies: 43
Views: 4215

Re: International exposure: does it really help?

This question, like many, involves what you mean by diversification and the purposes one is seeking from diversification. The idea to diversify is the means to reduce risk by spreading out the risk, I.e. not carrying all your eggs in one basket. Could you just hold Apple and be fine for the next 30 ...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International exposure: does it really help?
Replies: 75
Views: 7343

Re: Retiring without any Direction

I am not sure why folks treat retirement as a yes or no decision. I have figured out I will likely be in shape to retire in my 40's (wife will continue to work as she LOVES to work), but have realized with some time off recently it is too boring. The problem with early retirement is everyone else is...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring without any Direction
Replies: 26
Views: 2047

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

Diversification is a simple and practical solution for an uncertain future. If you are certain that international diversification will not provide a material benefit over a US only allocation, then obviously you don't need to diversify internationally. I am not so certain, so I diversify internatio...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6326

Re: Do you tell your kids how much you make?

Interesting question with no right answer. I think at early ages it is important to give ranges of your profession along with other professions. An above average cashier is always going to make less then an accountant for example. It is important that kids be taught early that different fields make ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you tell your kids how much you make?
Replies: 58
Views: 5904

Re: Buffett 2-fund portfolio and 75/50

I agree with the rest of the chorus regarding the three fund portfolio, however, I will submit to you that in many cases the three fund portfolio can be simplified even further to a two fund portfolio: X% Total World Stock Index, Y% Total US Bond Index. :beer Nothing wrong with the 3 fund which is ...
by staythecourse
Sun Jul 06, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buffett 2-fund portfolio and 75/50
Replies: 18
Views: 2574

Re: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?

Kudos for this thread. It is about time someone calls out the mass fear of dying starving. In my opinion, this is a BIG reason many make overly aggressive and foolish decisions later in life as they feel they need to make up for low net worth in their 40's and 50's. I can tell you why folks don't en...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?
Replies: 41
Views: 2338

Re: How to admit/should I admit alcohol problem to employer

This is an area that seems to be riddled with potential landmines for your and the employer. If it was me I would call an employment lawyer and try to get a consult on your rights. Not sure if alcoholism is considered a disability and thus protected under the ADA. I would not trust (albeit with good...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to admit/should I admit alcohol problem to employer
Replies: 97
Views: 10263

Re: New Attending Physician Tomorrow Advice?

If you are in private I 100% agree with success comes from simply: Affable (BY FAR), then available and then able. My advice for all physicians is try to remember who you are serving and that is the patient themselves. Do good to them as that is the best reward. Sounds hokey, but true. Nothing is be...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Attending Physician Tomorrow Advice?
Replies: 17
Views: 1950

Re: Car insurance Medical coverage exhausted

paulsiu wrote:The hospital and insurance belong to the same corporation. One would hope that they can talk to one another :-).

Paul


How is that possible? Blue Cross and such don't own nonprofit hospitals. Do they??

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car insurance Medical coverage exhausted
Replies: 7
Views: 856

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

LBYM really has nothing to do with the car you drive. If you drive an older and perhaps less safe and less reliable car as a badge of honor when you don't need to...that is nothing to brag about. If you have everything else in your financial house in order, no bills, don't need to access your retir...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22205

Re: Recorded Q&A with Rick Ferri and the RTP Bogleheads

Must say you know when you are a nerd when you can't wait to find some free time to watch this video!! Mr. Ferri's "AAAA", in my opinion, is the best single intermediate book on what is important in investing and asset allocation is around so can't wait to read his new book. For many of th...
by staythecourse
Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recorded Q&A with Rick Ferri and the RTP Bogleheads
Replies: 24
Views: 2468

Re: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post

I have contemplated 'being done' saving as well, have even posted about it before here in which my goal is to have 25x expenses by age 45: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=115312 The major problems I see, which EmergDoc did address in his post are: 1a. 5% real is not only not...
by staythecourse
Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 47
Views: 7676

Re: Home Country Bias

I know. But, what's the alternative as a crude starting point for AA? Should a Canadian divide his stock allocation 3% domestic / 97% international, even with the lower currency risk, lower political risk, lower costs, and lower taxes of domestic investments? What would be the ratio, for a Kiwi, is...
by staythecourse
Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias
Replies: 47
Views: 2618

Re: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors

Hint to major financial companies. Treat your employees better. Who wants to be chained to their oars in a Roman Galley? This is not hard to figure out. Interesting I would agree that is true to ANY business. Employers always want more out of employee when they make no real incentive to work harder...
by staythecourse
Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times: Not enough younger investment advisors
Replies: 72
Views: 7273

Re: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Va

you still would have more return for less risk. This comment makes me NOT to want to invest in SCV. The fundamentals of investing is over time expected return equals the risk one bears. Now if that happens is a different story. Sometimes that means returns> risk and sometimes returns< risk, but ove...
by staythecourse
Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Value
Replies: 127
Views: 6742

Re: Home Country Bias

Canada's stock market is 3% of the world's stock markets. As a Canadian, I buy goods and services in Canadian dollars, I get less political risk, lower costs, lower taxes, and no currency risk using a Canada total stock market index fund. Question: How much should a Canadian overweight Canada in hi...
by staythecourse
Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias
Replies: 47
Views: 2618

Re: Equal Weighting vs Market Cap Weighting

In Lussier's book (which is mostly over my head) he discusses why one of the reasons equal weight tends to do better then market cap as it decreases "price noise". Price noise is caused by the higher speculative equities (high P/E ratios) which just happens to be in the LCG section. So, eq...
by staythecourse
Tue Jun 24, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Weighting vs Market Cap Weighting
Replies: 38
Views: 1556

Re: Why Asset Allocate/ Slice and Dice

I will say the same thing I say on all these threads: Do what you want as it is your money. Now that being said I can't (like many) sit back and have folks make comments eluding to small and value as "bets" as if I am sitting at a roulette wheel betting on red 8. Like it or not, believe it...
by staythecourse
Tue Jun 24, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Asset Allocate/ Slice and Dice
Replies: 37
Views: 2072

Re: Total world investing - "owning the market"

This echos a fundamental point that I see many folks not get or refuse to see when they campaign "own the market". NO ONE owns the market. ?chris Jones from financial engines talks about this in his excellent book, something like, "brilliant portfolio" or something like that. For...
by staythecourse
Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total world investing - "owning the market"
Replies: 23
Views: 2759

Re: "The Arithmetic of Active Management"

Taylor, Do you know if the SPIVA looks at active management through market timing of index funds vs. active management? Stay-the-course: I don't know the answer (check SPIVAs methodology). I'm not sure your question is relevant. Market timing can be done using both managed and index funds. Properly...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing in theory and practice
Replies: 28
Views: 1468

Re: Indexing in theory and practice

misterwheelerdealer: Are there any statistics on how much indexing has returned to its buyers ( not in theory, in practice). Yes: Active vs. Passive SPIVA U.S. Scorecard for periods ending in December 2013 Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, Do you know if the SPIVA looks at active management through marke...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing in theory and practice
Replies: 28
Views: 1468

Re: Indexing in theory and practice

My questions are, are there any statistics on how much indexing has returned to its buyers ( not in theory, in practice). Also is the bogleheads response to the built in buying high and selling low in indexes. Interesting question. To take a step back index investing is a means to secure the return...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing in theory and practice
Replies: 28
Views: 1468

Re: Is Medical School Worth it Financially?

Off the topic a bit, but this reminds me of the patient I was most jealous of in my entire life. He was this really easy going, good natured chap who at 53 was retired with full pension and paid $100/ month for medical. He was telling me he used to goof off all the way through high school. He knew h...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Medical School Worth it Financially?
Replies: 66
Views: 5035

Re: Analysis Paralysis

Too much thinking. I will guarantee you being anywhere from 50-80% stocks won't make a difference of you living vs. eating out of a trash can. What does folks in is NOT their asset allocation, but the inability to STICK to their asset allocation. When was the last time you heard anyone say, "I'...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Analysis Paralysis
Replies: 16
Views: 2557

Re: when the rubber hits the road

Great question. This is EASILY the most important worry I personally have when I age. I agree with needing to address Durable Power of Attorneys pronto. On the finance side: If you have someone you trust and can "run the show" in the near future and beyond then great. Start talking to him/...
by staythecourse
Wed Jun 18, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: when the rubber hits the road
Replies: 19
Views: 1836

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made...
by staythecourse
Wed Jun 18, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Replies: 30
Views: 1803

Re: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math

Very nice thread. The point I make repeatedly in the book (as well as in Ages of the Investor) is that it's nearly meaningless to talk about the "risk" of stocks without specifying the ratio of human capital to investment capital. If that ratio is high, that implies you're saving periodic...
by staythecourse
Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math
Replies: 42
Views: 3932

Re: Young Investor Strategy

Sorry to say I disagree with all the above responses. At 20 the BIGGEST single determinant of you success is starting early (which you are doing well) AND saving as much as you can. Now at 20 and going forward with your 30-40+ working life ahead saving will be solely based on your income- expenses. ...
by staythecourse
Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor Strategy
Replies: 15
Views: 1186
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