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Re: Primary Doc Steering to Specialist Within Own Group

; I've seen some pretty bad medical practice out there and part of my job is to actually steer my patients clear of some of those people. I tell patients, even as a specialist, the MOST important person in your care is the PCP because he/ she is the one who will either send you or prevent you from ...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Primary Doc Steering to Specialist Within Own Group
Replies: 19
Views: 1107

Re: Thinking Money~Behavioral Economics

Thanks for posting, but does the video discuss the aspect of behavioral economics that is the MOST important and that is there data that knowing your mistakes prevent you from making it again? It isn't like algebra where your learn 1+1= 2. I think it may be more like learning not to cheat in school....
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking Money~Behavioral Economics
Replies: 2
Views: 288

Re: Primary Doc Steering to Specialist Within Own Group

Here is the truth... it all depends on the practice structure you PCP is in. If he is part of a multispecialty private group it may mean anything from he is comfortable dealing with physicians he knows vs. some random guy to he makes indirect revenue from a shared pool of ancillary income to his bon...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Primary Doc Steering to Specialist Within Own Group
Replies: 19
Views: 1107

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

No offense, but I think some reading is in order. Investing and doing it successfully is REALLY EASY, but requires some basic knowledge. If you had the basics down you would not have posted this question. Here are some great books: Easy: Jack Bogle's edition to the Little Book series and Allen Roth'...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1803

Re: how risky is stock investing?

One thing many folks never understand is they assume if the SP500 is up for the year, for example, that at least half are up more then the other half being down to get a net + return for the year. That is not correct. In any given good year for the SP500 some of the stocks do exceptionally well whic...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how risky is stock investing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1210

Re: Vanguard Variable Annuity Costs

Not to steal the thread, but I started the same when my daughter was just born a couple of years ago. I know Johnathan Clement discussed doing the same in an article he wrote awhile back. Not sure if he went through with it or not. 65 years of tax deferred growth was too much to overlook!! Good luck.
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Variable Annuity Costs
Replies: 10
Views: 716

Re: A 3 fund portfolio? Whoda thunk it?!

Curiously I didn't even realize last week was a good week and still don't know how much stocks were up or down. I noticed everyone was abuzz on this site a few weeks ago, checked to see if my rebalancing bands were hit, and I wasn't even close to having to rebalance at the time. I guess the excitem...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 3 fund portfolio? Whoda thunk it?!
Replies: 3
Views: 918

Re: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?

Just curious if you would se saying it was a mistake if your investment went up 200% instead of being cut in half? The big mistake you made was taking on single company risk which never seems to work out well. If one wanted access to gold or silver it would make more sense to just invest in the hard...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?
Replies: 9
Views: 814

Re: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?

My view is that the "way we invest" should not change in lower-return world. The same principles of buy-hold-and-rebalance still apply. One exception might be to consider taking on a bit of extra stock risk, consistent with one's risk tolerance. But the main focus should be on other facto...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?
Replies: 17
Views: 1669

Re: Finance kids' medical educations with a HELOC?

I'm sorry to have to be on the side of don't do it. The key is this is money you NEED to survive in your own retirement. Basically, you are saying "I will take the money I need to retire on and put it into two unsecured bonds". That is not a good investing move. In my opinion, them being f...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finance kids' medical educations with a HELOC?
Replies: 24
Views: 1636

Re: 39.6% Tax Bracket :(

Who cares? The point is to save and invest as much money as possible in the most efficient way possible for future consumption. The point is not to avoid paying taxes. If you want to lower taxes just donate 200k to charity each year. There we go. If you don't that is because you want to keep the mon...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 39.6% Tax Bracket :(
Replies: 23
Views: 4340

Re: Any contrarians for commodity futures?

Like any other asset or subasset you have to understand the advantages, disadvantages, and how it interacts with the rest of the assets in making up your portfolio. Commodities are no different. I definitely would not consider adding it just because it has hit lows or not include it if it was at hig...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any contrarians for commodity futures?
Replies: 6
Views: 467

Re: A Backtest of the Dividend Growth Model, 1871-2010

I do want to remind folks that Vanguard's paper did show R2 >0.8 when you focused on just the extremes of P/E ratios. Somehow I thought that the R2 was>0.8 if one had P/E <10 or >25. Anything in between did not mean much. That info. is possibly useful to implement in one's IPS. Good luck.
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Backtest of the Dividend Growth Model, 1871-2010
Replies: 68
Views: 3670

Re: A Backtest of the Dividend Growth Model, 1871-2010

was added to the real earnings-per-share growth rate over the entire 140-year period (1.7%) As mentioned already by several posters this alone defeats the purpose of the whole analysis. Simplegift... Has anyone done the same using info. that might have been available at that time of calculation for...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Backtest of the Dividend Growth Model, 1871-2010
Replies: 68
Views: 3670

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I don't have a dog in the fight, but do agree as a physician when I hear evidence based that means there simply is evidence to say do this or that based on past studies. In medicine you can have different levels of strength of such evidence. MOST studies are retrospective. They go back in time to se...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 52
Views: 3283

Re: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?

Subham, All I have to add is I think you are at a real HIGH risk of messing up your investments. If I was you I would really look deep into my soul and ask if you would be better off just reaching out to Mr. Swedroe or Mr. Ferri type advisor and letting them do the work for you. Giving someone 0.5-1...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?
Replies: 37
Views: 1655

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

There is a tremendous level of unhappiness of physicians at all stages of their careers for multiple reasons. In no particular order: Increased production pressure. Loss of autonomy. Responsibility without authority. Quality of care being redefined by corporate and government entities. Only things ...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6847

Re: Do you dream about retirement?

Case in point, we live several states away. He rarely sees us or his grandchildren. Despite that, he didn't make any trips out to visit us, even when he had conferences in the area. It simply boggles the mind (pardon the pun) that he would not slow down after "retirement" and spend more t...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you dream about retirement?
Replies: 83
Views: 5463

Re: Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson

There is a great chart in this article "Total Investment Capital Market". It give me a snapshot of where all the money is going. For a novice like me, great stuff. The only problem is the data is from 12/31/2005. I tried to find more current data, but have had no success. Any suggestions?...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson
Replies: 21
Views: 2791

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

snip I am not encouraging my children to pursue a career in medicine, nor are any of my partners encouraging their children. snip 100% in agreement. And I'm not burnt out, I love taking care of patients. It's EMR, insurance denials (never lost a battle yet but it sure is time consuming and frustrat...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6847

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

If you can't remember 2008-2009, then do your best to remember 2011, the year behavioral finance expert Cass Sunstein "seeing a decline in [my] fund’s value, decided to sell a significant chunk," and did so, despite talking to his co-author who told him "Reread our book!" I'm al...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 3784

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

To answer your question, Nisiprius, I was afraid in 2008 and 2009, despite being 90%+ in CDs, munis, etc. Still today, after multiple QEs, actual deflation in some parts of Europe and sovereign debt levels, I would not be surprised if another major depression was right around the corner. Although I...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 3784

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

I'm a doc, but it is hard to say what the answer (if there is one) would be without knowing more info., such as: How is her personal life, i.e. current relationship, how is her family support network, how much of this is I don't like seeing patients vs. I feel stressed out seeing a billion pts. per ...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6847

Re: Retiring without any additional investments for 25 years

Unfortuantely, you are trying to do the same thing every investor tries and that is try to control the one aspect of investing that can not be controlled and that is returns. If you are truly concerned about "will I have enough in 25 years" I would shift your focus to figuring out how to c...
by staythecourse
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring without any additional investments for 25 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2810

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

The best advice I would give to anyone about risk taking in investing is to start out low equities and see how they respond to the many shocks of the market. I remember starting with 40% equities, but I realized through the downturns I kept getting the itch to ratchet up the equity allocations into ...
by staythecourse
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 3784

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

The risk takers got lucky in 2008 and 2009 because of federal bailouts and coordinated actions from central banks. There is no guarantee whatsoever other bailouts will occur next time around. Good luck everyone. Actually the positive effect of adding that much liquidity to the markets is the EXACT ...
by staythecourse
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 3784

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Lynette wrote:Not everyone dreams of retiring early.


Excellent point. I guess the abnormal is the goal to retiring early to enjoy the fruits of their labor.

The norm. for many is the sense of accomplishment and meaning in the work they do despite what it means to their bottom line.

Good insight.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12431

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

I don't mean to steal the thread, but just wondering for those who are in the "I can spend >120k per year with <3% withdrawal" or better why did you not retire earlier? It would seem the chances of running out of money happened A LOT earlier then the chances of dying before hitting the &qu...
by staythecourse
Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12431

Re: Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson

Gibson's book was the first book I just randomly pulled off the chart when I wanted to start learning about investing and it is still one of the BEST books I have read. Thank you for mentioning it as not many folks include it in the works alongside Bernstein's and Ferri's. It was as good if not bett...
by staythecourse
Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson
Replies: 21
Views: 2791

Re: Statute of Limitations on Medical Billing?

I would think if the claim is not done in the 12 month period then it is NOT your responsibility as it is their fault. Otherwise, any provider could just "accidently forget" the 12 month limit and then stiff the consumer with the bill. That would seem pretty unethical. I'm a physician and ...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Statute of Limitations on Medical Billing?
Replies: 12
Views: 1741

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

I like Wellington, based on past performance :happy What? Don't look at me like that :wink: I must admit that Wellington fits into my definition of "guilty pleasure" for a knowledgeable investor. It is just a nice well designed, low cost actively managed product that has been around FOREV...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 4766

Re: Do you regret buying your home?

Lived in our home for last 4 years and would NEVER make a change. In our area the options to rent are slim to none. We have 2 year old now and trying for another so it is a great feeling knowing we are making all these new experiences in a place we have full control over.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you regret buying your home?
Replies: 82
Views: 6778

Re: Should I Sue?

Call a lawyer. That is what they do for a living as just one example, how does the water get to the sofa ? through he roof is not a flood etcetc etc If you do this I would call SEVERAL lawyers to get a collective opinion. No doubt you will find one that will say you have a case. Unless they are on ...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Sue? [couch damaged in garage of rental]
Replies: 39
Views: 3225

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Rebalancing is an act to maintain the same risk profile of the portfolio as originally planned. In this respect don't think there is a difference between 2 or 10 funds. The act of rebalancing itself is the important part. Diversification benefit is the act of hoping by rebalancing that one can not o...
by staythecourse
Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1783

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

No one knows anything. In predicting the markets and economy that is basically the truth. I would say once I realized that (luckily within my first year of investing) it makes investing SUPER EASY. If anyone watches the markets on a daily basis just in one year how could anyone think there is a rhym...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3947

Re: Daycare educational material for 3 year old

My wife (not me) was hardcore to find a pre-preschool vs. a daycare. She went about asking the administrator where the kids went to school after they finished, i.e. gifted, classical, magnet, private, public. She wanted to go with the one where a large portion went to gifted and classical. Now that ...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daycare educational material for 3 year old
Replies: 10
Views: 769

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

USO is intended to track spot oil prices, not sure how well they do. That is not correct. ALL commodity funds outside of gold, silver, and metals are priced on the futures market. That is the whole point of the futures market. One can not buy and store billions of barrels of oil or thousands of pig...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2041

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

USO is intended to track spot oil prices, not sure how well they do. That is not correct. ALL commodity funds outside of gold, silver, and metals are priced on the futures market. That is the whole point of the futures market. One can not buy and store billions of barrels of oil or thousands of pig...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2041

Re: Bogle and dry powder

I've heard him say quite plainly that stocks have the highest expected return but most investors do not have the stomach for a 100% stock portfolio, that's why it's recommended to invest in bonds. When he uses the phrase "dry powder" it seems to me that he's saying "money not exposed...
by staythecourse
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle and dry powder
Replies: 29
Views: 4940

Re: Making an offer today

^ the showing cards of seller is pretty much known thru Trulia-Zillow-Redfin. Seller is holding a fairly weak hand. OP has stronger cards. With such a low offer, the question is whether the offer is large enough to cover the existing mortgage. And if it doesn't, then will the mortgage holder accept...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making an offer today
Replies: 44
Views: 4764

Re: Making an offer today

Interesting that the owner showed you her cards (if it is the truth) with the exact number she is looking for. As I mentioned before do not fall in love with the place. This goes for picturing yourself in the property already as that is a form of falling in love with residential property. There is n...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making an offer today
Replies: 44
Views: 4764

Re: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold

I would think anchoring (or at least its negative connotation) is in reference to folks buying a security and looking to sell the security again for a quick profit, i.e. market timing. For those folks they will continue to want to hold the security hoping the price will eventually come back up. If y...
by staythecourse
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold
Replies: 15
Views: 1451

Re: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)

It is odd, but I have NEVER been invited to a dinner or talk. I feel slighted in some weird way. Of course, I would still say no, but wanted to be included. I'm a physician married to a physician so would think I should have a huge bullseye on my back and front. I am hoping one day to be invited jus...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)
Replies: 68
Views: 4183

Re: Valuations and the AA decision

staythecourse Anyone can do that for themselves. Just invert the CAPE and compare to bond yields. Or better CD yields since they are higher and just as riskless. That's the point I made ---just because valuations are high doesn't mean stocks will underperform. And no one knows the "right"...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and the AA decision
Replies: 8
Views: 917

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I'm not an engineer, but agree with the other folks in that I think engineers are some of the best investors. They are by nature and profession data driven and unemotional in their decision making. Those qualities make them terrible at other aspects of their life, but is a great plus when it comes t...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 126
Views: 8925

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

I'm not going to take the advice of anyone who can't see that a TSM index fund is superior to a S&P 500 Index fund. Umm... No. One is not any better then the other. They just follow different indexes with one (SP500) constituting 70% of the other (TSM). No surprise over the long run they have b...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3271

Re: Sell bonds to buy real estate?

Nothing wrong with real estate, but there is something wrong with not seeing the all the negatives of such opaque and illiquid investment as real estate development. Do as you wish, but I would put the chances of a real estate virgin being successful financially from trying to make a 20% profit as t...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell bonds to buy real estate?
Replies: 11
Views: 1188

Re: Valuations and the AA decision

Mr. Swedroe, Good article. I was hoping you could put some of those returns in context to what an investor's other options might have been at those same time points in fixed income. For example: P/E of 25 gave stock returns of x%, but if you were in 10 yr. treasury at that same time it would have gi...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and the AA decision
Replies: 8
Views: 917

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

The author is pining for the high inflation days of the 1970s because back then, you could pick up bonds at 15% nominal interest. Funny how the human mind works. In 2010 or so when interest rates were near zero I found it funny that folks were wishing for the those good old late 70's again. I would...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7963

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

Folks should always do what is comfortable, but I have said numerous times the bond investors on this site are the folks who do not seem to understand that there is no free lunch. Folks want the diversification, i.e."if stocks go down I know my bonds will soften the blow", but yet the same...
by staythecourse
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3271
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