Search found 3665 matches

by staythecourse
Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barry (Ritholtz) Gives Larry (Swedroe) A Hug ... The Folly of Forecasting
Replies: 2
Views: 585

Re: Barry (Ritholtz) Gives Larry (Swedroe) A Hug ... The Folly of Forecasting

No offense, but you don't need a famous author or expert to not believe in market predictions. It is common sense. If you don't go to a psychic to predict on one's future wife, job, or where to live (as examples) why in the world would you believe in ANYONE to predict the movement of the markets whi...
by staythecourse
Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 70
Views: 5555

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

The first aspect for the OP to help decide will be their academic aptitude. Just because you want to be a MD (for example) does not mean you can become an MD. The different careers you mentioned have different levels of difficulty in regards to entrance requirements. If you are brilliant and have ph...
by staythecourse
Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Slate Article: Dream on Babyboomers-Semiretirement is a Myth
Replies: 53
Views: 8178

Re: Slate Article: Dream on Babyboomers-Semiretirement is a

It is naïve for any person who has worked to NOT have seen ageism in the workplace. Like it or not it exists. As more and more companies have to find ways to cut the liabilities side of the ledger to artificially boost profit margins the more the higher paid, i.e. "experienced" workers wi...
by staythecourse
Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 70
Views: 5555

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

Finally, and this might be my paranoia, but there was a recent study that found that up to half of the jobs in the U.S. are vulnerable to take over by computers/A.I. within the next few decades. It isn't really a matter of computers/ A.I. taking over jobs, but it only makes sense technology making ...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just Read AAAA - Tilting Quandary
Replies: 11
Views: 1019

Re: Just Read AAAA - Tilting Quandary

Really? Every increment adds up exponentially. If by tilting one can add 1-2% CAGR they will retire with >2x as much wealth. That's huge. Same reason why minimizing manager fees is so crucial. It may seem trivial but it adds up quick. Every ounce of returns matters. I am not saying tilting does not...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just Read AAAA - Tilting Quandary
Replies: 11
Views: 1019

Re: Just Read AAAA - Tilting Quandary

Do as you wish, but I can guarantee you one thing that after 20+ yrs. of investing your success or failure will have NOTHING to do with tilting or not. There are SO MANY more important decisions where one's focus should be then tilting. How about focusing on: How to make more money, how to save more...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?
Replies: 39
Views: 3335

Re: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?

The money I cannot afford to lose is in cash and bond funds. I could have a 100% loss in stocks and it would have little material effect on my retirement. Spot on comment from Taylor. Personally, the whole view on "how much to allocate to stocks/ bonds/ cash/ alternative investments" need...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?
Replies: 182
Views: 11531

Re: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?

Interesting thread. I would say unless you are in certain careers in shouldn't matter. If you are a physician, exec, lawyer, FA, etc.. it shouldn't matter. For the one's I mentioned it isn't a matter of having an expensive car that matters, but people will talk if you have one that is falling apart....
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does this happen to anyone else when logging onto Vanguard?
Replies: 8
Views: 901

Re: Does this happen to anyone else when logging onto Vanguard?

Issues like this it is best to notify Vanguard and please come back and let us know what they say.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2420

Re: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?

Equivalent to 80% stocks / 20% bonds I had a Larry Portfolio with 35% stocks / 65% bonds. I am no expert OR famous author, but have no problem saying expecting the same returns of a high equity (equity risk) portfolio with less volatility is heresy. The one aspect of investing that has never failed...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RE: Reconversion of IRA timing
Replies: 2
Views: 212

Re: RE: Reconversion of IRA timing

Much thanks.

That is how I interpreted the rules as well. Just wanted to be sure.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RE: Reconversion of IRA timing
Replies: 2
Views: 212

RE: Reconversion of IRA timing

Hi all, Looking to make sure what I am thinking of doing is within the rules of a RE-conversion of IRA. Basics: Early 2014 I did my usual Traditional IRA contribution and then converted to Roth IRA shortly after. At that time the traditional IRA was balanced at $0. Later in 2014 I left my employer a...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protection against stock correctiom
Replies: 25
Views: 2476

Re: Protection against stock correctiom

The best protection against a downturn is self control and time. In other words, "this too shall pass." I wanted to second this. The more I see about investing as times goes on I think the best HEDGE when stocks plummet have nothing to do with other asset classes, but the investor themsel...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction
Replies: 19
Views: 3549

Re: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction

Am going to make a hardcopy of these charts and paste them on the mirror in my bathroom.

I've said it before, but really am impressed with the quality of graphs and tables you include in your posts. Thanks for the hard work.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3089

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

Do we conclude staythecourse, that you would unflinchingly advocate the constant ratio (strategic allocation) irrespective of valuations no matter how extreme? Why cannot constant ratio be arbitraged away? Completely lost the thought thread there. Yours confused. P.S. Good rant. :) Ha Ha I guess I ...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident
Replies: 23
Views: 2146

Re: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident

p.s. chiropractic care on children? That is down right suspect. Why is it suspect? Children can have spinal alignment issues following car accidents just like adults. More so actually, because their heads tend to be proportionally heavier to their bodies than adults and the strength in their neck m...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3089

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

What I'm suggesting is, rather than declaring failure and giving up after two days, try to understand why you system is not working and see if you can fix it. The first guy who invented the wheel probably made a square wheel and it didn't work. If he had given up, we'd still be dragging things arou...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident
Replies: 23
Views: 2146

Re: negotiating pain and suffering claim for minor car accident

I don't mean to sound blunt, but how much pain and suffering did you really have to justify higher payments? As you mentioned you and you children have been pain free for some time. You NEVER went to an MD for outpatient care. A chiropractor is just that a chiropractor and they are well known to see...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle backfire?
Replies: 66
Views: 7754

Re: Bogle backfire?

I appreciate posts like this as I think it will help newer investors answer the eternal question of what is the difference between speculation vs. investing. Harry Browne of PP fame nicely worded in his books that investing is when one is trying to get their fair share of returns that everyone else ...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2665

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

This fits in my usual "who cares" category. This is very similar to my disdain of the "how are your returns this year" threads. Both make me wonder if folks, even on this site, really understand passive investing. If one invests passively then you will do as well or as bad as the...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 21, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3089

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

Just to add to this conversation I did similar data crunching on my own. I took what Ben Graham might have been suggesting in his "Margin of Safety" discussion and tried to weighed it each year based on valuations. For example, if Earning yield was 5% and bond yield was 2% then the ration ...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 21, 2015 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10627

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHS?

I will comment without even reading the other posts as I will give you the same advice I would my own child when she gets old enough to ask me this same/ similar question. The answer is simple: Life is about choices. You don't HAVE to have the cost of the house you currently live in. You DON'T have ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I think I did something dumb.
Replies: 20
Views: 4423

Re: I think I did something dumb.

I do have to quibble about the "total return" comment. I am pretty sure it does NOT include bid/ ask spreads, 12b-1 fees, brokerage costs, or the biggest being tax inefficiency. That was my purpose of the question. There are SO many costs in active investing that are NOT summed up for the...
by staythecourse
Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I think I did something dumb.
Replies: 20
Views: 4423

Re: I think I did something dumb.

During that time span, my total returns were comparable to the S&P 500, with far more effort and stress. Not to divert the topic, but did you take transaction costs, ER, tax inefficiency, and risk adjusted returns into consideration when you looked back at the two comparisons? Total return incl...
by staythecourse
Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I think I did something dumb.
Replies: 20
Views: 4423

Re: I think I did something dumb.

During that time span, my total returns were comparable to the S&P 500, with far more effort and stress. Not to divert the topic, but did you take transaction costs, ER, tax inefficiency, and risk adjusted returns into consideration when you looked back at the two comparisons? Just curious. Goo...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Arranging for Death Notifications?
Replies: 20
Views: 2385

Re: Arranging for Death Notifications?

I have nothing to add to the conversation, but kudos for starting a very interesting and always timely thread. As someone who is naïve in this arena I would have to agree with the poster above who recommended that it should be the same person who you are considering in helping you in case of illness...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Board Recommendations: Vacation for Babymoon
Replies: 27
Views: 1914

Re: Board Recommendations: Vacation for Babymoon

My only advice is to go ASAP. The closer one gets to 34-36 weeks the more you will be concerned about not how nice the amenities are, but if you will be okay with delivering in that local if she goes early.

Good Luck.
by staythecourse
Mon Jul 13, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle puts a bow on it in under 15 minutes
Replies: 28
Views: 6601

Re: Bogle puts a bow on it in under 15 minutes

Not too long ago I saw a great video where Jack himself was asked if he ever gets nervous about the markets and he said sure and when he does, he goes back and reads his own books. LOL. I loved that!! I think this is important for folks to hear. Fear is natural and when the markets crumble EVERYBOD...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10
Replies: 83
Views: 6030

Re: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10

Timing or valuation strategies that outperform the simple buy-hold-rebalance approach are easy to find by backtesting and combing through the historical asset return databases. But the documentation of real world trades and returns by people or mutual funds that have successfully implemented these ...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 18805

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

Thanks for putting a story to the emotion. I think that is more useful then my usual, "just imagine losing half of the value of your portfolio allocated to stocks". Reading your short blurb makes me realize how scary it must have felt during that time let alone having your job, i.e. human ...
by staythecourse
Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Slice and Dice
Replies: 22
Views: 2979

Re: If You Slice and Dice

I don't think you can be a "tinker" at heart AND be a great investor, regardless of slice and dice or lumping. Actually, not sure if there is ANY data to support lumpers are better at staying the course then slice/ dicers so not sure if it is even appropriate to assume. The great thing is ...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does An All ETF Portfolio Make Sense?
Replies: 40
Views: 3277

Re: Does An All ETF Portfolio Make Sense?

Let's face it ETF should do the same as mutual funds for the passive, index investor. For those who want to know why ETF hype has increased... it is simple and its called $$$$. The financial industry only makes money with trading and they have realized the popularity of index investing and that it i...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to save?
Replies: 42
Views: 5246

Re: How much to save?

Personal balance. Save as much as you can. :beerCheers, packet I would normally agree, but in the consumer world we live it is too easy for most folks to be seduced into thinking wants are now needs. This, in effect, decreases one's saving for retirement when human capital is at its lowest. I think...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage - 30 year or 15 year?
Replies: 56
Views: 4897

Re: Mortgage - 30 year or 15 year?

The basics of the question is: Liquidity vs. the delta of interest rates between the two mortgages. I think the advice above is sound in going with the 30 yr. and just prepaying as you see fit. Good news is with depressed rates on fixed income you can just pile your "fixed income" investin...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobel Shiller selling US stock because of valuations -- does it make sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 2022

Re: Nobel Shiller selling US stock because of valuations -- does it make sense?

Maynard, Great graphic. Makes me wonder if this is just another "Dogs of the Dow" strategy but on a global scale and thus doomed to fail just like the "Dogs of the Dow". It would seem that was a great idea until it was well known and since then not such a great idea. My question ...
by staythecourse
Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest in OIL
Replies: 58
Views: 3724

Re: Best way to invest in OIL

I'll throw in my own 2 cents. I would also LOVE to invest in oil, but after much research there is no financial instrument that tracks oil prices (which was my goal). I did NOT want oil producing companies I wanted the spot price itself. ETF dedicated for E+P end has not had great correlation to sp...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest in OIL
Replies: 58
Views: 3724

Re: Best way to invest in OIL

I'll throw in my own 2 cents. I would also LOVE to invest in oil, but after much research there is no financial instrument that tracks oil prices (which was my goal). I did NOT want oil producing companies I wanted the spot price itself. ETF dedicated for E+P end has not had great correlation to spo...
by staythecourse
Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NYSE trading halted [for more than 3 hours]
Replies: 32
Views: 2955

Re: NYSE trading halted

These are the times I LOVE being a long term, passive investor. If the market is halted for a long time it wouldn't matter.

I can only imagine what the micro, nano second traders must be doing about now. :D

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 07, 2015 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How nuch concern is it to you when stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3137

Re: How nuch concern is it to you when stocks

I always get a little worried when markets start to slide. I looked and I'm down about 30000K from where I was a month or less ago. Do you worry about it or just go with the punches and the ups and downs? Should a person not even look or what is your take? The question in return to ponder is do you...
by staythecourse
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything is rolling over except U.S. stocks
Replies: 14
Views: 1788

Re: Everything is rolling over except U.S. stocks

Okay I'll give my usual "who cares?"

If you are a long term investor who cares what happens to the market in the short term. For an equity investor the ONLY prices that matter are the ones you buy at and the one you sell at. Any other value simply does not matter.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9743

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

Well I guess Mr. Graham was correct that the market in the short run is a voting machine as I wonder if there are such fundamental changes in business operations in Greek business from yesterday to today to justify an 18% drop?

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9743

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

For the long term investor it simply does not matter if the market goes up or down in the short term. However, that long-term investor may just have to like it or lump it with low single-digit returns for the foreseeable future .. Perhaps not, but that's what the best forecasts we're likely to have...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9743

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

But suppose this weekend, the Greek referendum has the Greeks voting Yes. What do you think would have to stock markets then? :twisted: Do you think that this week would turn into a minor blip that doesn't even show up in a 1-year chart because of smoothing for display? Suppose there is a terrorist...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer contribution in P&L statement?
Replies: 3
Views: 648

Re: Employer contribution in P&L statement?

Thanks for the reply. I had no clue how to do it which is why I was asking. So to be clear the employer contribution would be added as an expense to get the net income BEFORE calculation of the net adjusted profit? If you do that doesn't that decrease the net adjusted profit which in turn decrease t...
by staythecourse
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9743

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

It's the BH version of whistling past the graveyard. Simply goofy. Let me know the next time buying after a lousy 1% decline in stock prices makes you rich. Agreed. I have NO clue why these threads even exist or why folks post on them. I am assuming it is a bit of bravado. As far as I know (hope so...
by staythecourse
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer contribution in P&L statement?
Replies: 3
Views: 648

Employer contribution in P&L statement?

Hi all, First full year as a self employed and loving it. Set up a simple P&L spreadsheet which is working find on excel. Don't know how to document the employer contribution of solo 401k. Looking for some help. Do I put it under the expense section so it is included in the calculation of net in...
by staythecourse
Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6620

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

I would say none of the above. I would venture to guess that there are more folks following the "norm" then those outside of the "norm" especially since the norm is advocated by the man who this website if lovingly named after. The likely story is there is a biasm who responds to...
by staythecourse
Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 78
Views: 8888

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

Without any calculation I would venture to guess (mind you that is what it is even if you do complex calculations) is that 10% chance of bonds beating stocks over the long term. However, for the long term investor that is NOT the question that is important. The more important question (and answer) i...
by staythecourse
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Couples and money and compatibility
Replies: 38
Views: 4395

Re: Couples and money and compatibility

My DW has little interest in money or investing. She pretty much goes along with my style. The only issue is she does not look at prices or bargain shop like I do. If something is too expensive, I'll go without. Since she doesn't look at prices, she'll buy it. Very minor irritant to me. Otherwise, ...
by staythecourse
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Managed Small-Cap Fund
Replies: 15
Views: 1582

Re: Vanguard Tax-Managed Small-Cap Fund

However .. if you're going to tilt towards a factor (size, value, momentum) you're already engaging in market timing - because you're making a prediction about relative future returns within a certain time period .. Not to further derail this thread, but if one is buying the "market", i.e...

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