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Re: The challenges of staying the course...

OP, There are some great and insightful folks on this board who are willing to help, but as of know you are not making it easy. It is sort of like pinning the tail on the donkey blindfolded and in the dark! Please follow the suggested schema for asking a portfolio review. It is hard to give advice w...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The challenges of staying the course...
Replies: 27
Views: 1705

Re: Trusting and shopping around for doctors

What if the second opinion is the wrong one? Interesting in all the replies from intelligent posters this was the ONLY one to point this out. It is a type of recency bias. One is placing more credence on the second opinion then the first. What if they were done in reverse fashion (2nd going first a...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trusting and shopping around for doctors
Replies: 23
Views: 1264

Re: Bringing up 529s to the grandparents

I think you have every right to enforce limits on the gift-giving to your kids, but personally I think it would be poor taste to ask for money/donations instead. I would agree. You can say no, but can't say, "no, but I would rather have this from you." By definition a gift is without expe...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bringing up 529s to the grandparents
Replies: 56
Views: 2760

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

I will admit I have never read the wiki pages. I will say if you are going to quote something on asset allocation role I think you have to quote BHB and BSB studies as the are the LANDMARK papers written on the role of portfolio policy role vs. active management (security selection and market timing...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 71
Views: 2251

Re: Trusting and shopping around for doctors

Nearly every good doctor that I have ever been treated by has been a referral from another doctor I trust. My PCP s have always sent me to excellent specialists who they trust which is critical as chronic conditions require a certain coordination of treatment. I'm a specialist and tell patients all...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trusting and shopping around for doctors
Replies: 23
Views: 1264

Re: Trusting and shopping around for doctors

In reference to getting a second opinion the patient, YOU, should always get one when you doubt what is being offered or recommended. There is NO non doctor who is qualified to say "Yes" or "No" about a rec. from a physician, but it is more then reasonable to get one from another...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trusting and shopping around for doctors
Replies: 23
Views: 1264

Re: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds

The fact that they're guaranteed to double if held for 20 years, which when annualized is 3.53%. If you cash them in before the 20 years is up you get the 0.10%. This is why I think EE bonds are a bad deal. You are basically telling someone give me 10k and after 20 yrs. I will double it to 20k. IF ...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds
Replies: 67
Views: 3955

Re: Anticipating the pain [of one day portfolio drop]

The key to investing is all about perspective. For example: Everyone will quickly remind investors that the DJ fell a record 26 or so% in a single day in 1987. Is that terrible? Nope. What no one bothers to remember is that it had a run up of around +30% for the year prior to the drop and despite th...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anticipating the pain [of one day portfolio drop]
Replies: 13
Views: 1711

Re: 36 yo looking for early retirement

I would say it is time to do some reading. If one has 300k sitting in cash instead of AT LEAST paying of the higher returning negative bond, i.e. debt or not just putting more into taxable makes me wonder there is a deficit in financial acumen. Don't get me wrong, you have done a great job saving an...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 27, 2015 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 36 yo looking for early retirement
Replies: 24
Views: 3562

Re: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds

I am in the vast minority, but don't understand the interest in EE bonds. If you are going to hold something for 20 yrs. I would want A LOT more then a measly 3.5% return (barely above the usual inflation rate). If you are going to hold them no matter what for 20 yrs. why not just throw it into stoc...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 27, 2015 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds
Replies: 67
Views: 3955

Re: Does anybody buy and sell USO ?

Sorry to revive, but didnt want to start a duplicate thread. I am looking to buy long dated options (as a gamble) on "something" that is close to the price of oil as possible. Having said that, only USO and UCO seem to have options out to 2016 & 2017. Given criteria for an options pla...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anybody buy and sell USO ?
Replies: 19
Views: 1447

Is personal DB plan right for me?

Hi all, Wanted to know some insight from the smart folks out there what the adv. and disadv. are of me doing a personal DB plan (like the one from Schwab). I'm 38 and wife is 33. We are both physicians. She works for corporate medicine so her salary is pretty rock steady (no ups or down). Her payche...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is personal DB plan right for me?
Replies: 15
Views: 1152

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

After Putin invaded Crimea, Russian stocks fell and volatility rose. If you owned Russian stocks, it would have been a good idea to sell after the invasion, even after prices had fallen, because they have continued to fall. Who cares if they fall and continue to fall unless you think the Russian ma...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3328

Re: Focused Larry Portfolio

This argument applies to beta as well. Future expected returns of all premia-- beta, value, momentum, etc-- are all derived from the past.If I'm not mistaken, the plot looks about the same for any 30 year period since 1926. Agreed the argument holds for all equity premiums. If you have a link of ro...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Focused Larry Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 3173

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

Oddly enough I LOVE volatility. It all matters how you look at it. Volatility on the upside is what we call return and volatility on the downside is what we risk/ loss. It is the same thing. What makes something go up a lot is the same that makes the same asset go down a lot. You can't have high ups...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3328

Re: Focused Larry Portfolio

It will NOT give you the same return as a high equity portfolio. If it does in the next 20 yrs. please quote me and paste it on here. The only way for that to happen is the small and value premiums have to be HUGE to overcome 70% of the weighted average of the portfolio being dedicated to no ERP, S...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Focused Larry Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 3173

Re: Success stories of NOT buying more/too much house

Been there, done that. Agreed to my wife's proposal over a glass of wine to buy big upgrade and then went back on decision and stayed put. Instead, did some remodeling and paid off current home which is more than adequate. Best financial decision I ever made. Miss not having adequate guest rooms fo...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Success stories of NOT buying more/too much house
Replies: 65
Views: 5944

Re: Focused Larry Portfolio

I may be jumping in to a dance I was not invited, but thought the comment of decreasing equity risk, but with the same return was likely arguing the notion one can get the same returns of high equities, but with less risk by adding a large dollop of bonds, i.e. Larry Portfolio. In my mind that flie...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Focused Larry Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 3173

Re: Happy Birthday Taylor!

I am sure I speak for everyone when I say this board would not be the same without all your contributions!

Happy Birthday!
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say [about various investing topics]
Replies: 51
Views: 3238

Re: Focused Larry Portfolio

I may be jumping in to a dance I was not invited, but thought the comment of decreasing equity risk, but with the same return was likely arguing the notion one can get the same returns of high equities, but with less risk by adding a large dollop of bonds, i.e. Larry Portfolio. In my mind that flies...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Focused Larry Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 3173

Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

When will folks stop falling on the feets of their idols? It amazes me that folks just can't figure out in their brains that no matter how smart someone else is they do NOT have some special prognostic abilities beyond the fortune teller down the street. I can tell you the same thing as I did before...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1298

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

I let Conv Wisdom do my thinking for me This was the mistake. I have said numerous times that NO ONE can predict the future. Just because there is herd mentality that does not mean they have some greater ability to predict something that can not be predicted. For example: How do we not know there w...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3541

Re: What is your commodities stocks/indexes allocation?

I have gold and silver coins/bars and I own the ETF SGOL. It totals about 5% of my portfolio. pre 2007 I was nearly 9% but I decided to dial back to 5% and have been pretty stable since then. Just curious why SGOL? I know It is domiciled abroad, but the ER is more then 10- 20 basis points then GLD ...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your commodities stocks/indexes allocation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1020

Re: What is your commodities stocks/indexes allocation?

Ibbotson published some research in 2006 suggesting a commodities allocation could improve a portfolio and it quickly became a sort of fad. Oddly enough, right after the research was published, commodities developed a high correlation with stocks and ceased to be a good diversifier. Funny how thing...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your commodities stocks/indexes allocation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1020

Re: Efficient markets: luck v. skill

Interesting folks spend so much time discussing if active management when it wins being luck vs. skill. I wonder if anyone has looked at investor's ability to pick active managers as luck vs. skill? It looks to me to win an investor must show skill to invest in an active fund that shows skill as wel...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient markets: luck v. skill
Replies: 37
Views: 2487

Re: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi opti

I have said several times it does NOT matter if one does or does not believe EMH. It isn't like any of us are academics writing our phd thesis paper supporting or opposing the theory. The ONLY question the regular Joe investor (all of us on this site) need to answer is: Is their enough inefficiency ...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi options)
Replies: 11
Views: 699

Re: "The ABCs of Common Sense Investing"

I'll tell you what you make those ABC into flashcards and you have a nice product to sell/ give to parents, high school econ teacher, etc... It makes a great medium to start the dialogue with younger generations.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The ABCs of Common Sense Investing"
Replies: 11
Views: 1669

Re: EE bonds vs iBonds

Not to divert the topic, but was wondering if anyone has looked at the chances of a 20/80 portfolio not doubling in a 20 yr. horizon. Just wondering how important is the guarantee to double if something else could do the same with very little volatility and not annual restriction on how much one can...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE bonds vs iBonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2490

Re: Real 3% (CPI plus 3% guaranteed)

I think it is more likely this is a subsidized benefit than a scam investment. But we need to know who the employer is, who is offering the investment, and what all the language is around the deal. It could also be some sort of annuity that is being pitched that would not likely be a good idea. I a...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real 3% (CPI plus 3% guaranteed)
Replies: 21
Views: 1811

Re: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k

Hedge Funds? NO. Too much hype. Too much diffusion of performance among winners and losers. Too many different strategies. Too many successful managers who won't accept your money. Too much cost and too little tax efficiency. The management fees are so high that they often destroy even the small ch...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k.
Replies: 59
Views: 6661

Re: Real 3% (CPI plus 3% guaranteed)

This sounds like it might be too good to be true. I thought I posted on here last night about the same issue. I basically wrote, I am a firm believer that there are NO free lunches when it comes to investing. If TIPS and Ibonds are not providing anything close then there are extra risks one is taki...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real 3% (CPI plus 3% guaranteed)
Replies: 21
Views: 1811

Re: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k

Classic principal-agent problem. Manager already had a very bad December. So much so, that his career was likely going to take a very hard hit. It was perfectly rational for the manager to bet it all, double-or-nothing. If he won, he would look like a genius and all would be forgiven. If he was wro...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k.
Replies: 59
Views: 6661

Re: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions A

This might be an idea to do just for estate planning if you have the cash. You could superfund even adult kids then change the beneficiaries to THEIR kids later, when they get some. Might even make sense to eat up some of one's $5,500,000 estate tax exemption to do. Any creative thinking here? I ha...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions ASAP
Replies: 71
Views: 5285

Re: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions A

I was waiting for this thread after yesterday's State of the Union. We likely will just continue to invest the regular amount we do every month. Even if a law is actually past they will likely do the usual thing and give a small window for folks to take advantage before they change the rules. So I ...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions ASAP
Replies: 71
Views: 5285

Re: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions A

I was waiting for this thread after yesterday's State of the Union. We likely will just continue to invest the regular amount we do every month. Even if a law is actually past they will likely do the usual thing and give a small window for folks to take advantage before they change the rules. So I w...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions ASAP
Replies: 71
Views: 5285

Re: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure

I think you are overthinking it. Just find the name of a cardiac surgeon at UPenn, meet him/ her, along with the cardiac surgeon you have been recommended and choose the one you like best. Cardiac surgery is not a field of hand holding. The surgeons comes in, does their jobs, and then you are off to...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure
Replies: 49
Views: 3984

Re: 529 Plans Reform

Since the thread will get locked anyways, I will voice my opinion that Obama is just laying the groundwork to make the other party take a stand against raising taxes for the wealthy and make themselves look bad. Will any of these ideas get into legislation? That would be very hard to believe consid...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 529 Plans Reform
Replies: 24
Views: 1371

Re: Land - Me or my Neighbor

Why would you choose an option that comes with not upside (return) and unlimited downside (risk) in the way of getting partially sued. I would just inform the neighbor that all of this time you did not know it was his/ her land and now that you know you will no longer be taking care of it due to pot...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Land - Me or my Neighbor
Replies: 44
Views: 3422

Re: why did my portfolio perform so badly in '14 ?

It might be worth moving towards a 3-fund portfolio. With over 20 holdings youre having trouble figuring out what your asset allocation is and why you're underperforming. I agree that you have WAY too many holdings. I can't even tell by eyeballing it what subasset classes you are even invested in. ...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: why did my portfolio perform so badly in '14 ?
Replies: 13
Views: 3295

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

Thanks for the input. I am trying to re-balance to a lower international allocation. Once I get there, I will maintain my AA. Is there a flaw in that approach? When one rebalances they are selling the winners (U.S.) and buy more of the losers (international) as an example from last years world equi...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 132
Views: 10019

Re: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure

While you might not end up with the very best doc ever, you'll certainly avoid the worst ones, which I think is all you need to do here. Funny, but how true that is. You just want to stay away from the 7-10 decile guys and you will be fine. I would caution not to ask the nurses who they like as the...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure
Replies: 49
Views: 3984

Re: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure

That is a difficult question to answer from folks outside of Phili. Do you know any doctors in that area as word of mouth is usually the most useful from folks in the field. Reading into what you are asking a cardiologist in Phili area is a good person to give you opinions. If you don't know anyone ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure
Replies: 49
Views: 3984

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

30% and declining. As international continues to perform poorly in comparison to US, and adding more to US only, international is becoming less a portion of my portfolio. Has there been a time where international has performed better than US? If so, when? TIA This needs to be stickied as a very dan...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 132
Views: 10019

Re: Lenovo Yoga (& sudden shut down?)

Don't have anything constructive to add, but to say I HATE Windows 8.1.

It seems they must have beta tested it for computer guys and NOT people in the real world. I don't know anyone who likes it.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lenovo Yoga (& sudden shut down?)
Replies: 27
Views: 2129

Re: "Wining and dining" in medical community

Interesting as I have plenty of referrals who want to meet up for dinner. Don't know why as I am in the general consensus I would rather just go home and spend time with the family. I try to limit it to once every couple of weeks or once a month. The device folks love to take network specialties. Go...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Wining and dining" in medical community
Replies: 35
Views: 3516

Re: What's Your International % and Why?

I am 50/50. As I have mentioned on this site before I know a few things as fact: 1. There are times when U.S. outperform 2. There are times when International outperform 3. No one knows in advance when either of the above happens The other thing I do like is I find it very easy to stay the course wi...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 132
Views: 10019

Re: What is the median retirement savings by age / age group

Don't know why you would want to know any of these numbers as a number is not very useful for your situation. I think the best savings % guidelines out there are ?Dr. Pfau tables on how much is need to save in relation to your asset allocation and time to retirement. This seems to be more useful. If...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the median retirement savings by age / age group?
Replies: 11
Views: 2147

Re: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery

But how much is the ERP of foreign equities, in USD, relative to domestic stocks in USD? All of our historical data from 1970 suggests that the foreign ERP is lower. I'm not saying we should not diversify internationally, but the ERP figure might argue for a much lower allocation. Why do some inves...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery
Replies: 121
Views: 10519

Re: ERP ?

There is a ERP with international equities. I believe it was Dimson and Marsh 101 yrs. of international returns data that shows in almost (if not ALL) equity markets equities outperform the same country's cash (and even bonds) this shows there is a +ERP. There is no premium of investing in one equi...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery
Replies: 121
Views: 10519

Re: Are there any advisors on this site?

There is a lot more to comprehensive financial planning than investment selection. Retirement planning, Asset allocation, tax planning, estate planning, insurance planning, etc. I have NEVER understood why the financial advising industry has not adapted to the times. Any intelligent person who does...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any advisors on this site?
Replies: 30
Views: 2577
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