Bogleheads.org

One would have assumed that this would be disastrous for the long-term accumulator, but not so. Had they saved $100/month over these 15 years, their $18,000 total investment actually grew to $36,000, not the $18,000 you'd assume based on about 0% returns. In 1930 the average income per year was $1,...

I have a guaranteed pension that I will be able to collect at age 43 and of course will continue to work after that (health permitting of course.)

That's a great pension! If the pension can support your future expenses, why work?

Instead of delineating the difference or debating which fund is "better", what are your arguments against or for investing such sector fund? It seems worthwhile as aging population requiring more health care as times marches on, faring much better than the S&P 500 during times of crisi...

Another factor that is often overlooked is the additional risk of such a strategy. Instead of investing in broadly diversified funds, you are taking a gamble on a single narrower fund. Could this be said about sector funds despite spectacular performance of the Vanguard Health-care sector fund with...

Thanks. What is AA of Hot Hands? The "Hot Hands" method was developed by Dan Wiener -- Founder and Chairman, Adviser Investments. He says, "My “hot hands” thesis is quite simple: Investors who purchase the prior year's best diversified Vanguard equity fund and hold it for a year and ...

How do apply a RBD calculation to a mutual fund? Just run the numbers for the corresponding ETF? For the Fund you are looking to buy see the corresponding ETF. 1. Has the ETF dropped in value today? 2. Is this drop greater than 2.5%? 3. Is this drop greater than the 4th largest drop in the past 151...

Ignore all forecasts

How about the one from GMO - 7-Year Asset Class Return Forecasts? I guess the answer is "yes.".

mickeyd wrote:New High! zzzzzzz

New Low! zzzzzzzz

Stay the Course! zzzzzzz

ZZZZ .. How about market decline of 90%, all public pension payments ceased indefinitely or discontinued forever, imminent World War III, etc?

I think there is something wrong with the way the author is calculating the yearly return for those portfolios. For example, he shows the Coffeehouse Portfolio as having a return of 6.41% last year. But if you drill down into the portfolio on that page, you see the components: 40% Total Bond (which...

leo383 wrote:I personally think the ultimate lazy Boglehead portfolio also just has two funds: Total World and Total Bond.

It's cheaper to use two funds: Total Stock Mkt Index (VTSMX) and Total Int’l Stock Idx (VGTSX) as opposed to Total World albeit simpler.

The only problem is no-one ever knows where the dips were (or ended), except for in hindsight. What if the stock market drops 20%, you adjust your allocation to 100% equities, and then the market drops another 40%? Or what if the market does not recover for 5 years and bonds do well during that per...

As with religion, your belief can be shaken depending on whether current conditions are affecting you, and how much you believe in your own ability to recover.

It depends on the degree to which you truly believe in the region. A true believer will never be forsaken.

I made out like a bandit obviously and I'm back at my 80/20 allocation now waiting for the next crash.

When will be the next crash? What constitutes a crash?

I have very accurate records, which I maintain in an Excel file, going back to the beginning of 1995, so I have detailed performance information. Since January of 1995 my annualized return has been 9.47%, compared to a 7.77% annualized return for a static portfolio of Vanguard index funds which mir...

camper wrote:We have heard of the pending doom and gloom of rising interest rates for a couple years now. Those that think they know when it will actually happen are fooling themselves. Tune out the noise. Stay the course.

Staying the course seems so simple but yet so hard to follow.

How about the CD "crash" which is here already? You are guaranteed to lose money/purchasing power by putting your money into CDs. A crash to me implies an event that truly impacts. Does not seem like bonds can really crash, especially since their interest payments will increase during thi...

livesoft wrote:I learned how bad VBS really is as a broker for me. It might be OK for you though.

How bad was it? Any example? A few dislikes: takes a day or two to settle the trade and proceeds to money market cannot be used right away.

Beagler wrote:Here is a list of 2012 predictions: http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2012/12 ... index.html

How about 2013?

We are in the "milestone: camp as we are slowly shifting more to the fixed income side. The target will be 40/55/5 (equity, fixed-income, cash). As for fixed-income, we are contemplating on short-term bond funds as interest rate will mostly go up as QE3 expires in mid year 2013.

As others have said, there's no apparent advantage to split REIT allocation between two accounts. As for us, all REIT allocation is in one tax-deferred account. You might consider splitting REIT allocation between domestic and international for increased diversification.

Most forecasts indicate that the return of the S&P500 will be lower than that of 2012. Some sectors, however, may perform slightly better, such as health care, consumer non-cyclical, utilities and real estate.

$1 Portfolio = 11.92, 15.26

For Vanguard Wellington, $1 portfolio = 14.45 without the need of rebalancing.

According to your data, from 1985 - 1999, the 3-fund return is actually better. If $1 was invested in 1985, the value is $7.54 for 3-fund and 7.52 for S&D.

Uncertainty = ?
Risk = A state of uncertainty where outcome could be + or -.

kontango wrote:Like it or not, finance/investing is technical.

However, it is definitely not scientific.

I hope the above is helpful Not at all. You seem to be deeply into the social scientist's confusion that there is an epistemological difference between knowledge you gain by counting and calculation versus knowledge gained in other ways. I think what you've said here is all wrong. What's right (cor...

what he's recommending is FAR from the most diversified stock portfolio, on a global basis.

What's your recommendation?

My YTD is up about 5% or so, because I got out of the stock portion on July 22nd and went to STB's. Why did you do that? Did you foresee significant risks or decline in the market? Probably just dumb luck, I felt things were just to pricey for the current market. With all the bad news, world proble...

hidesert wrote:I haven't sold anything so I haven't lost anything.

Its all just electrons at the moment.

It's true - no realized loss. Paper loss is not a major concern unless your investing horizon is short.

Mr. Jean wrote:My YTD is up about 5% or so, because I got out of the stock portion on July 22nd and went to STB's.

Why did you do that? Did you foresee significant risks or decline in the market?

I'm an accumulator at this point so all I care about is the number of shares I own.

What if the value of each share is zero? Do you care?

BigD53 wrote:Vanguard's Long-Term Treasury Fund is up approximately 30% YTD?

That must be the "flight to quality" they talk about.

Most long-term bond and TIP funds are still way up! Wish I had the foresight to put most of my money into those funds.

It's fine now.

a low cost index fund isn't guaranteed to beat a high cost active fund ..

If both funds are tracking the same index, the low-cost fund should be better.

The alternative, active management, is the approach that implies that uncertainty can be reduced or eliminated; that events can be predicted and planned.

Who's doing the active management? God or someone from the future?

I can't buy more REIT shares online for 60-days, but with a profit like that, who cares? If the price keeps going up, I'll keep selling shares to rebalance. If the price falls from here, I'll wait and re-evaluate in 60-days.

buy VNQ - ETF.

Let's hope that this downward spiral continues, and that we can all buy many more shares for much lower prices! My next dividend blast comes at the end of September, so my fingers are crossed that the market will trend down until then. The stock market is going on sale! Woohoo! 8-) :lol: What if th...

baw703916 wrote:

spanky123 wrote:What's your definition of stock market turbulence?

I'd say definitely when there's a bear market (usually defined as a drop of at least 20%). Or, maybe more generally a change of at least 20% in either direction.

That's definitely turbulent.

baw703916 wrote:I disagree that these are turbulent times.

Turbulent? Come on.

Brad

What's your definition of stock market turbulence?

http://finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s ... vhgd1rm4p2

You can import data from Yahoo into a spreadsheet. You may need a macro to format your data.

The columns are name, price, volume, day hi, day lo, date, p/e, 200-day ma, change

M B wrote:

amdmaxx wrote:- Trying to time the market

I would put it under greed, i.e. taking a lot more risk in the hope of getting a bit more.

Greed is too generic. The word applies to almost everything in life.

- tracing after what's hot
- reacting to news/current events

Convert most holdings to gold and the rest to buy non-perishable food supply.

Diversification among various asset classes works.

If the market is always wrong, the contrarian approach should produce desirable outcome. Yes, but if the contrarian approach is successful it will be arbitraged away in an efficient market, and you will then have to be a contrarian contrarian to succeed, and so forth and so forth. :undecided That s...

staustin wrote:my modified permanent portfolio down .3% today...

What's your modified permanent portfolio in terms of mix?

If the market is always wrong, the contrarian approach should produce desirable outcome.

[quote]
Yep. The older I get, the more bonds I gots. Tactical adjustment to the clock.

/quote]

That's called strategic allocation/adjustment.

shawcroft wrote: It is, after all, a courageous man who thinks it is time to shoot the piano player when the party is going hot and heavy.
Shawcroft

That would definitely stop the music.

Just thinking, if it's a buying opportunity when the dips happen, and they may continue to slide.... Which of the core funds would be the better choice to add money ? VTSMX VBMFX VGTSX VIPSX I would simply wait until each of those funds hits bottom, then immediately buy. Once it gets to the top, se...