GMO Forecast method?
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... 111913.php
abuss368 wrote:The book "Elements of Investing" recommended a two fund portfolio. I believe it was Total World Stock and Total Bond Index.
I have a guaranteed pension that I will be able to collect at age 43 and of course will continue to work after that (health permitting of course.)
mickeyd wrote:New High! zzzzzzz
New Low! zzzzzzzz
Stay the Course! zzzzzzz
leo383 wrote:I personally think the ultimate lazy Boglehead portfolio also just has two funds: Total World and Total Bond.
As with religion, your belief can be shaken depending on whether current conditions are affecting you, and how much you believe in your own ability to recover.
I made out like a bandit obviously and I'm back at my 80/20 allocation now waiting for the next crash.
camper wrote:We have heard of the pending doom and gloom of rising interest rates for a couple years now. Those that think they know when it will actually happen are fooling themselves. Tune out the noise. Stay the course.
livesoft wrote:I learned how bad VBS really is as a broker for me. It might be OK for you though.
Beagler wrote:Here is a list of 2012 predictions: http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2012/12 ... index.html
what he's recommending is FAR from the most diversified stock portfolio, on a global basis.
hidesert wrote:I haven't sold anything so I haven't lost anything.
Its all just electrons at the moment.
Mr. Jean wrote:My YTD is up about 5% or so, because I got out of the stock portion on July 22nd and went to STB's.
I'm an accumulator at this point so all I care about is the number of shares I own.
BigD53 wrote:Vanguard's Long-Term Treasury Fund is up approximately 30% YTD?
That must be the "flight to quality" they talk about.
a low cost index fund isn't guaranteed to beat a high cost active fund ..
The alternative, active management, is the approach that implies that uncertainty can be reduced or eliminated; that events can be predicted and planned.
I can't buy more REIT shares online for 60-days, but with a profit like that, who cares? If the price keeps going up, I'll keep selling shares to rebalance. If the price falls from here, I'll wait and re-evaluate in 60-days.
baw703916 wrote:spanky123 wrote:What's your definition of stock market turbulence?
I'd say definitely when there's a bear market (usually defined as a drop of at least 20%). Or, maybe more generally a change of at least 20% in either direction.
M B wrote:I would put it under greed, i.e. taking a lot more risk in the hope of getting a bit more.amdmaxx wrote:- Trying to time the market