Search found 1113 matches

by scone
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 144
Views: 11832

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

OTOH, if there really is a lot of "cash on the sidelines," where people missed out on buying the last time, then the dip might be brief. It would be interesting if the market jiggled around such that I hit my bands down and up! I've never experienced that before. :D
by scone
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 144
Views: 11832

Re: Greece impact on US markets Monday morning

frugalecon wrote:I think it will be interesting to see how big the move is in Treasuries. 10 year closed a bit below 2.48 on Friday. I wonder if we will be back in the 2.2s.


Across the curve is all over the story.
by scone
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 144
Views: 11832

Re: Greece impact on US markets Monday morning

^ I've hit my band, so I'm already buying. :happy
by scone
Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6874

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

One of my favorite things about FIREcalc is the output chart, which with my inputs, always shows a "funnel like" range of results. This is based on past history, of course, but to me it demonstrates that I don't have total control over outcomes-- some of it is determined by grand historic...
by scone
Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6874

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

One of my favorite things about FIREcalc is the output chart, which with my inputs, always shows a "funnel like" range of results. This is based on past history, of course, but to me it demonstrates that I don't have total control over outcomes-- some of it is determined by grand historica...
by scone
Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a home
Replies: 7
Views: 639

Re: Buying a home

Usually, the 7 year minimum rule of thumb works, so I would stick to that unless rentals are likely to become really crazy in your region. For example, we just downsized into a home that we will sell in just a couple of years, but the rentals here are so extremely expensive, it just doesn't make sen...
by scone
Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6874

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

The article doesn't seem to specify which stock and bond markets are "expensive," but I suppose that means the American markets. I'd love to see some calculations done with domestic/international splits.
by scone
Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18687

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I had no strategy in 2008 and no real experience investing. But I was a history major in school, and I come from a family hit hard by the Great Depression, so I could visualize some of the scenarios. The nightmares were particularly vivid. It wasn't just the stock market that scared me, it was the p...
by scone
Fri Jun 19, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice Review
Replies: 16
Views: 1303

Re: Slice and Dice Review

One thing I learned through the original backtester, and then Portfolio Visualizer, is that drawdowns kill your returns. Try focusing on reducing drawdowns, using three different allocations. You can use three of the model portfolios as starting points. Hint: you don't really need gold or the long b...
by scone
Fri Jun 19, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock bubble, bond bubble - I'm worried!
Replies: 16
Views: 2415

Re: Stock bubble, bond bubble - I'm worried!

Skimming your prior posts, it seems to me you are taking on a lot of worries unnecessarily, even if from the best of motives. You are helping out your family financially, giving friends advice, etc. This is very kind of you, but it could also be increasing your stress level. IIWY I really would stop...
by scone
Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 158
Views: 12306

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

I think it would be foolish to rely on anything coming out of OPM-- they are going to be in massive CYA mode going forward. I would be shocked at the staggering level of incompetence, if I hadn't seen similar things going on in other organizations. I think you also need to assume that if you have be...
by scone
Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Look Inside Jack Bogle's Office
Replies: 27
Views: 4937

Re: A Look Inside Jack Bogle's Office

Thanks, this is a real treat! I hope he has UV resistant glass on the pictures, so they don't fade.
by scone
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4345

Re: Change of heart on bonds

I'm kind of going in the opposite direction myself, since we've exceeded our goal and are very close to retirement. We could raise our stock allocation by 10% and still be quite safe. One easy way to do that might be to withdraw from the bond/cash allocation in the early years of retirement. For you...
by scone
Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not enough risk, open new fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 829

Re: Not enough risk, open new fund?

Welcome aboard! :happy The STAR fund certainly isn't a horrible choice, especially if you like an "all in one" solution. Although Vanguard does offer other one-fund choices that are a little cheaper, like the Lifestrategy series. STAR has plenty of risk, which is a complicated topic, so yo...
by scone
Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unsure of the process of paying off mortgage early (all at once)
Replies: 30
Views: 3418

Re: Unsure of the process of paying off mortgage early (all at once)

Don't forget a lovely thank-you letter to the giver, possibly with a selfie of you at the bank actually paying it off. Congratulations! :beer
by scone
Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rates are rising - is it inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1764

Re: Interest rates are rising - is it inflation?

Not much inflation right now. There are several "constructed narratives" out there, which might explain it. One is (obviously) the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates this year-- this is a bit like the "Taper Tantrum" a couple of years ago. Another thing is a perceived &qu...
by scone
Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio - Do I Need All These Funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2990

Re: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio - Do I Need All These Funds?

It seems to me you really can't eliminate "tracking error," and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Obviously, you can't buy an index directly-- you buy a mutual fund or ETF that tracks an index, but it has a cost: the expense ratio and any other costs you have to buy it. So your performan...
by scone
Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio - Do I Need All These Funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2990

Re: The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio - Do I Need All These Funds?

I can't tell you whether you "need" this portfolio, but I can tell you why I picked it: diversification. It's a very comprehensive list of asset classes, but still easily manageable for me. I considered Trev's 4-fund simplification, but I knew if emerging markets or REITs were having a mom...
by scone
Wed May 20, 2015 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review request - headed in right direction?
Replies: 6
Views: 503

Re: Portfolio review request - headed in right direction?

^ Sounds good, and remember, it doesn't have to be perfect, as you will be adding to it, and possibly changing jobs, for many years.
by scone
Wed May 20, 2015 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Budgeting Help ASAP!
Replies: 42
Views: 2077

Re: Need Budgeting Help ASAP!

^^^That's not going to fly in NYC. You are comparing apples to oranges - what a couple does vs. what a single must do. Actually, it worked for me when I was single in NYC and Los Angeles. It also worked for long periods after I was married, when I couldn't work due to medical issues (so one salary ...
by scone
Wed May 20, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Budgeting Help ASAP!
Replies: 42
Views: 2077

Re: Need Budgeting Help ASAP!

I'm going to suggest a very different approach than the others have given. It has worked for my husband and I for over 25 years. Basically, we do not "budget" at all. We simply save first , and live on whatever is left. If there are salary increases or bonuses, they are saved. Importantly,...
by scone
Wed May 20, 2015 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review request - headed in right direction?
Replies: 6
Views: 503

Re: Portfolio review request - headed in right direction?

You have some overlap here, including a couple of funds that are relatively expensive and don't seem to add much to diversification: Harbor International Fund Institutional Class (HAINX) ER = 0.75 American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund Class R-6 (RERGX) ER = 0.49 If it were my money, I'd sell these ...
by scone
Thu May 14, 2015 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my FA set up IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 782

Re: Critique my FA set up IRA

It's pretty simple, really. If a fund earns 5% in a year, and costs you 1%, that's a big chunk of change that's going into someone else's pocket. If you also subtract inflation and taxes from the earnings, you aren't making much of anything. And this 1% loss compounds year after year. What you are p...
by scone
Thu May 14, 2015 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard's Web Site So Bad?
Replies: 64
Views: 5324

Re: Why is Vanguard's Web Site So Bad?

It's not just Vanguard. Fido's end user software is an annoying patchwork of poorly integrated products that should be totally overhauled, or scrapped. But don't hold your breath. A lot of companies view IT as a cost center, not a profit center. For that matter, even computer companies don't always ...
by scone
Thu May 14, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One stop shopping for moderate US tilt?
Replies: 2
Views: 272

Re: One stop shopping for moderate US tilt?

Looking at it from another POV, if most of your bonds are domestic, you are already "tilted" on that side. I'm 30% equity, half international and EM. But all my bonds are domestic, so I'm overwhelmingly "tilted" domestic.
by scone
Thu May 14, 2015 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help me pick the right priced/location condo!
Replies: 7
Views: 652

Re: Please help me pick the right priced/location condo!

Typically banks will lend about 3x your income, which is not the same as what you can afford, of course. But $150,000 on an income of $65,000 certainly isn't extravagant. The main thing is your safety and health. Mice and rats, and their fleas, carry disease. Dangerous neighborhoods aren't worth it,...
by scone
Wed May 13, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Small Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 2071

Re: International Small Cap

These Fido funds are expensive. I use Vanguard VSS and iShares IEIS.
by scone
Tue May 12, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this a dumb thing to do? [Pied-a-terre to share with daughter]
Replies: 41
Views: 5044

Re: Is this a dumb thing to do?

How about a duplex, or a bungalow with a granny flat,instead of a condo? That way, you both have privacy, and more control over the property. In fact, you might want to look at properties that are "accessible" in case you want to move to Boston permanently. As you kmow, the medical care is...
by scone
Tue May 12, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch
Replies: 26
Views: 5314

Re: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch

Come on, guys, Farrell is an institution. He's been doing his hilarious shtick for years:

http://www.businessinsider.com/is-marke ... ane-2010-7

I have to wonder if he believes his own weirdness, or if it's some sort of parody, like the Onion...
by scone
Mon May 11, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor: buy a nicer home pre-retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 3150

Re: Advisor: buy a nicer home pre-retirement

^^ The assumption behind "I'll just put some grab bars in the bath and call it good" doesn't really reflect what can happen. You start out needing just a little help out of the bath, then it's a little more help to get up the stairs, then it's a walker, then a wheelchair. All those small f...
by scone
Mon May 11, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lecture me about "too much house"
Replies: 49
Views: 5704

Re: Lecture me about "too much house"

You probably already know this, but it bears repeating. A good neighborhood is worth every penny. A bad neighborhood, with bad neighbors, is a nightmare. Never ever do it, no matter how much you love the house. You can change the house, but you can't change the location. Take a walk through the neig...
by scone
Mon May 11, 2015 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bought a brand new house - what next?
Replies: 17
Views: 2171

Re: Bought a brand new house - what next?

Check all the places the construction cleanup crew might not hit, like the tops of doors, the tops of window and door casings, the back of the toilets, etc. Sometimes they don't do the windows or the heating vents, either.
by scone
Mon May 11, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor: buy a nicer home pre-retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 3150

Re: Advisor: buy a nicer home pre-retirement

The part about "senior friendly" makes sense, but only if you take it seriously and make the house wheelchair accessible everywhere. This means wider halls and doorways, larger open spaces in bathrooms and kitchens, knee space under sinks, ramps from the garage into the house, etc. I would...
by scone
Thu May 07, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off student loans by selling house
Replies: 43
Views: 2862

Re: Paying off student loans by selling house

If you're going to sell the house anyway, and buy another in which to raise a family, then perforce you might have a child quite early after marriage. In that case hanging on to some extra cash could come in handy. In fact, you might reconsider selling, and stay together in your current place tempor...
by scone
Thu May 07, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car vs used car -- what's your approach?
Replies: 57
Views: 3023

Re: New car vs used car -- what's your approach?

Have you seen the new Subaru WRX? Not expensive, very lively and sporty, gets great reviews and good crash test results. Huge step up from an old Corolla. :D
by scone
Wed May 06, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we experiencing a bond correction or crash?
Replies: 34
Views: 5826

Re: Are we experiencing a bond correction or crash?

Bonds get no respect. Either people are complaining about the high prices and the low yields, or they're freaking out about a "crash" that raises the yield! :oops:
by scone
Wed May 06, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4736

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

I think value is likely to continue because it's like a bad date, ugly and boring. If you go over to Business Insider, all they talk about is social media apps and biotech. Struggling companies that make stuff like toilet paper never get any space. It's human nature to want to buy the hot stocks and...
by scone
Wed May 06, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: UI issues (especially iPad)? please evaluate alternate styles
Replies: 41
Views: 4372

Re: UI issues (especially iPad)? please evaluate alternate styles

If I can avoid a sans serif font, I'm a happy camper. Thanks! :beer
by scone
Wed May 06, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 92
Views: 5311

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

Back in those days, people generally bought stocks for the dividends. So if you paired that with Treasuries, it at least gave you an income stream, which must have been prized during the Depression. How did that go? "Milk from the cow, eggs from the hens, and stocks, by God, for their dividends...
by scone
Tue May 05, 2015 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 67
Views: 5733

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

So, to sum up. Gross, the bond guy, is talking down stocks. Buffett, the stock guy, is talking up stocks.
:|
Same as it ever was.
by scone
Mon May 04, 2015 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Funds for Fidelity 401k
Replies: 5
Views: 563

Re: Which Funds for Fidelity 401k

I would go with the second choice, DIY 3 Fund, because it's a little simpler, no bid and ask spreads as with ETFS. However, IIWY I'd look at FIBAX, intermediate treasuries, for the bond portion as it's cheaper, and tends to rise in a market panic. Personally I would also add a REIT and a small cap f...
by scone
Sun May 03, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which of these 6 mortgages seem good?
Replies: 40
Views: 3987

Re: Which of these 6 mortgages seem good?

I would get a thirty year loan, every time. I would then take the extra thousand or so, that I would have paid on the 15 year, and bank it. I would use that money to increase the emergency fund to one year, and then dump the extea into the mortgage, or use it to pay off any higher interest debt that...
by scone
Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Bond Fund Suggestions
Replies: 5
Views: 867

Re: Taxable Bond Fund Suggestions

Is there a muni bond fund for your state? If so, and the expenses aren't too bad, that could be a great deal.
by scone
Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 149
Views: 13948

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

I actually did the "don't peek" thing in regards to our pension. This was money I couldn't rebalance or fiddle with in any way, so there was no point. We just ignored it and saved as if it were not there. But now we're very close to retirement, so I peeked. After a bit of math, I realized ...
by scone
Sun Apr 26, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is international mid cap such an unloved asset class?
Replies: 6
Views: 434

Re: Why is international mid cap such an unloved asset class

According to the Morningstar X-Ray tool, VSS is about half midcap.
by scone
Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you make trades directly between investments?
Replies: 13
Views: 840

Re: Can you make trades directly between investments?

Maybe. I can trade directly between some Fido funds, such as FSBAX and FIBAX. I click on the "Sell to Buy" option. If that option does not appear among your choices, then perforce you won't be able to do it. However, since you should not be trading much anyway, the additional time in the M...
by scone
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How much of your portfolio is in index funds, and why?"
Replies: 91
Views: 8955

Re: "How much of your portfolio is in index funds, and why?"

I was really surprised to learn that John Bogle himself has a quarter of his portfolio in actively managed funds. And his son is an active fund manager--of a fund with a 1.25% expense ratio! Bogle has money in his son's fund, and his son's fund uses the Bogle name. I don't understand it. Why would ...
by scone
Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Living in New Hampshire?
Replies: 35
Views: 2708

Re: Living in New Hampshire?

I live here, and I like it very much. It's beautiful, quiet, rural. The average education level is pretty good, so it doesn't feel quite as backwoodsy as you might imagine. There is a profound awareness of history-- the past is all around you. Four season climate, four season sports. Lots of wildlif...
by scone
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you pay in Property Taxes?
Replies: 188
Views: 11885

Re: How much do you pay in Property Taxes?

Our place is about 2000 sq. ft., on an acre, and over 7k in property taxes. No income taxes, though. New Hampster. :D
by scone
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"
Replies: 46
Views: 4604

Re: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"

The contractual obligation aspect of individual TIPS isn't the question. I'd like to get some idea how the TIPS market might behave under extreme stress like the seventies. Would people stick to TIPS? Sell and buy short Treasuries? Buy gold? Commodities?

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