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Re: Green day

It was a quadruple witching day, so possibly some weirdness there.
by scone
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Green day
Replies: 8
Views: 965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

NASDAQ certainly has been cray-cray the last couple of years. Coming back close to where it was just before the tech wreck. I'm getting flashbacks. :shock:
by scone
Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189298

Re: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk

Since I'm still accumulating, and don't need income from my bonds, my only concern is how my bonds mix with stocks, particularly in a crisis. For that purpose, Treasuries are best. After I retire, then the income on bonds becomes more important, but so do taxes, so I will have an allocation to muni ...
by scone
Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 929

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I think other people in a hospital are more interesting than other people in a nursing home. One problem with nursing homes is that there are no men there. Victoria Some would not consider that a problem. You can't be serious {OK, I am not being serious, but every joke has a bit of a joke...} But I...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

{laughing}You got a point. Fortunately, as someone said about physics, electrons don't think. That's not everyone's belief, actually, but neither here nor there. As I understand it, doctors administer to others treatments that they would not accept themselves, such as the above mentioned resuscitat...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

It's wrong in the sense that medical professionals are trained to think about their patients as problems to be solved, and not as humans with free will. Unlike technicians and engineers, who are so touchy-feely! Sorry, could not resist. Actually I think doctors are human like the rest of us, and fo...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Quite honestly, how many of you know folks who have made it to 85 and are humming along just fine - as opposed to the many of your acquaintances, friends and family who didn't make it or have and are on thin ice? Every single one of my relatives made it to their eighties, except for my brother who ...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I am getting your point, and in some ways my thinking is similar to yours. However, I want to hope that there are ways to deal with this conundrum. Perhaps, the objections to the undesired lifesupport will become so prevalent that the best practices of the medical establishment will change. Perhaps...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

You are right. In Being Mortal , Atul Gawande describes the death of his father. The fact that both he and his father were physicians did not help when the ambulance has arrived. In the retrospect, they should not have called the ambulance. Victoria If the son fails to call the ambulance, he could ...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Thank you for a realistic story. It covers many common cases, but as an individual, I have a right to refuse certain medications and treatment options. I can evaluate the advantages and side effects of the prescription drugs and, for example, decide that my mental acuity and mobility are more impor...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

In a lecture about gerontological issues, a researcher has noted that for many elderly people the final decline begins with a bad fall or other bad accident. If you work on your balance and (are lucky to) avoid accidents, the end may in fact be fairly swift. In addition to aiming for compressed mor...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

So to me, the problem is not the odds of dying at any particular age, but the odds of having a long drawn out decline and lingering death. What are the odds of that? Pretty high, I'd say. I think that's what most of us are afraid of, but I don't think there's any way to insure against that financia...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I just don't think of the problem this way. To me, it's not so much how long I will live, it's all about the quality of care I can pay for at the end of life, for my husband as well as myself. And I'm assuming medical science continues to advance, such that I can be kept alive, one way or another, f...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9690

Re: Is it worth purchasing Ibonds on the verge retirement?

There has been a recent change in the tax rules for iBonds, I'll quote the wiki here if I may: "As of 2013, for all other filing statuses, your interest exclusion is phased out if your modified AGI is between $72,850 and $87,850 (filing single) or between $109,250 and $139,250 (married filing j...
by scone
Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it worth purchasing Ibonds on the verge retirement?
Replies: 25
Views: 2457

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

If you don't hold any long bonds, you are making an active decision to deviate from the market. And if you hate long bonds, then perforce you hate Total Bond, because it's like the old commercial, "it's in there!"* Remember that even if interest rates rise, it's not guaranteed that the ent...
by scone
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3191

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

...In the end, it's all speculation. The stock market goes down 1% one day, then up 1% the next day. Oil goes up 5% in a day, then down 5% in a day. Why? As a very wise man once said, "Wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey". I'm glad I'm not the only person who quotes the Doctor as a legit response ...
by scone
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2549

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

Because I don't want to spend the rest of my life reading quarterly reports. Buffett lives and breathes his investments. It's his whole life. He's like an Aspie for whom investment is his "special interest." I'm not like that, and I don't want to become that type of person. My investments ...
by scone
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8122

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

The stock market reacts to "new news," that is, surprises that have not already been "priced in." The drop in oil prices has been something of a surprise, to say the least. The energy sector companies are getting hit, as you might imagine. For that matter, any company or country ...
by scone
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2549

Re: Eliminating my tip fund~alternatives?

I used to own VIPSX and sold it when I simplified my bond fund collection, but I'm beginning to think that was a mistake. TIPs funds are Treasuries, so the credit is decent, and they don't behave quite like other Treasuries, or most other bonds. So there's some diversification benefit there. And alt...
by scone
Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Eliminating my TIPS fund~alternatives?
Replies: 12
Views: 1268

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

I'm not sure if these articles have been posted before, if so, apologies. The first two articles explain in very simple terms exactly what the fund is supposed to do for your portfolio. Essentially it's the diversification Holy Grail: increase returns while reducing volatility. The price of this mag...
by scone
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20540

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

If Larry is buying individual Treasuries and munis for his bond allocation, which is, IIRC, 70% - 80% of his portfolio, then his weighted average expense ratio is likely pretty low. For someone with high expenses in their 401k, it might be a problem. In any case, if this thing turns out to be a soli...
by scone
Thu Nov 20, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20540

Re: Borrowing from TSP for lot purchase

The loan isn't the most important thing, at all. It depends on where the land is located. If it's out in the boonies with lots of land available, and no constraints on development for the foreseeable future, then it's probably not worth it because the land may not appreciate very fast. OTOH if it's ...
by scone
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Borrowing from TSP for lot purchase
Replies: 34
Views: 2437

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

How would you rebalance this fund? Stocks? Bonds? A split between the two? And could you tax loss harvest, or do you always want QSPIX in tax advantaged?
by scone
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20540

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

Try running this analysis: a tilt to small and value, mostly intermediate treasuries, with 5% -15% in the long bond. :D
by scone
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3649

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

FWIW, the minimum through my Fidelity BrokerageLink window is $100,000.
by scone
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20540

Re: Need help for spending hard-earned money wisely

Go to human resources at your employer and ask if they can put some of your salary in a savings account for you, with the rest going to your checking account. This savings account might even be a stock fund or municipal bond fund. Start saving a decent percentage of your income, and increase it at i...
by scone
Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help for spending hard-earned money wisely
Replies: 18
Views: 2493

Re: Does anyone here make "fun" purchases.

Once you have your expenses covered, and that includes savings, you should spend the rest. That's what money is for. Hoarding is a fear reaction, IMO, and not healthy. But if you are going to spend, get the highest quality you can find. Lots of cheap stuff is just another form of hoarding.
by scone
Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone here make "fun" purchases.
Replies: 111
Views: 8615

Re: Food stamps

Well, the program is called SNAP now, rather than food stamps, and in my state it looks like a debit card. The program is regulated at the state level, so you'll have to check at the state office. Here's a list of hotline numbers for each state:

http://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/contact_info/hotlines.htm
by scone
Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Food stamps
Replies: 8
Views: 1750

Re: Speaking with an Aging Relative about care & money

My MIL is like this. She's such a Depression baby she saves tea bags for re-use. We haven't had much luck encouraging her to spend money, even though we have told her pretty clearly that she needn't save it for us. But then her brother, who is in his nineties, got a new car, and so she had to have a...
by scone
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Speaking with an Aging Relative about care & money
Replies: 24
Views: 2524

Re: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Si

You aren't missing anything, it's a tradeoff. With Total Bond, you might make a little more money, with Treasuries, your drawdowns might be less. The "take your risk on the equity side" idea suggests that your portfolio should be more efficient with all Treasuries, but it may or may not wo...
by scone
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Side?
Replies: 40
Views: 3969

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

scone, I should have put long term Treasuries in the original post. I’d love to own them someday when I feel they provide adequate compensation for the risk. I agree it's not paying very well now, but I don't need the income, so that doesn't bother me. I own a small amount of FLBAX with a duration ...
by scone
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 4107

Re: Buying Furniture

Is the 5,000 dollar Arhuas / Ethan Allen sofa really 4,000 dollars better than a 1,000 sofa from another furniture store? I wouldn't pay $1000 for Arhaus or Ethan Allen, they aren't particularly good brands. I might consider paying $5000 for a Hancock and Moore leather sofa, knowing how it's built ...
by scone
Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Furniture
Replies: 27
Views: 2117

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

For me, the Callan Table says it all. Simply unpredictable-- sung to the tune of "Simply Irresistable," of course. 8-)

http://www.callan.com/research/download ... %2F757.pdf
by scone
Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5275

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

In a deep depression, unemployment goes way up, small businesses and corporations go bankrupt. Lots of cheap assets, but few people have the cash to buy them and make them productive. Today, Japan has prevented some of this with zombie corporations. In the U.S. during the Great Depression, cash and ...
by scone
Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 4107

Re: Things have settled. How do they look?

I think you are doing fine overall. As for the HSA, you could have your cake and eat it too-- put a small amount into stock, and continue to pay out of it. At least that way it should have a chance against inflation. Leaving the HSA in a money market account is a guaranteed loser in that sense. As f...
by scone
Fri Nov 07, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Things have settled. How do they look?
Replies: 5
Views: 1081

Re: investment lessons from QE

Thanks. :? What I would like to hope for is a general prosperity, and if there is some way I can help do that in spending or investing, that would be a win. But I don't have a lot of money, and I can't afford to risk a left tail disaster. Maybe you could persuade your wealthy clients to spend more, ...
by scone
Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: investment lessons from QE

That housing crashes tend to make recoveries longer isn't really a controversy. But incomes are flat, and that is the salient fact. It seems to me that economists were expecting QE to overcome this hurdle, but it didn't. They seem to have overlooked the obvious: average people can't spend income the...
by scone
Fri Nov 07, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: investment lessons from QE

People who are lucky enough to own their homes and have a retirement portfolio may have a higher net worth, if the home is not still underwater, but that's only a fraction of the population. In any case, bigger portfolios and home values haven't automatically led to a spending spree in the real econ...
by scone
Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: investment lessons from QE

"...if you get rising asset prices you typically should also get the wealth effect kicking in, picking up the economy. But you also have outside influences." I don't see that at all. People who have just been through a searing collective experience like this last crash don't go out and sp...
by scone
Thu Nov 06, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: investment lessons from QE

Come to think of it, maybe the "message" of QE is even simpler. QE's mere existence tells me that the world is in very dire straits indeed. So we try out on extraordinary new policy, which may or may not work, and may have unintended consequences. We don't know what will happen, we only ha...
by scone
Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: investment lessons from QE

scone I have the greatest respect for Cochrane, but this sounds like gibberish to me. The only way this could happen is if the QE somehow led to lower money multiplier and lower velocity of money and don't see why that would happen. That is the simple math of it. Why would lower rates lead banks to...
by scone
Thu Nov 06, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: investment lessons from QE

Thanks, Larry. Have you seen Noahpinion's latest piece on possible QE deflationary effects? http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-04/reality-might-topple-a-beloved-economic-theory Here's a longer form piece of his that sums up the discussion among economists, FWIW: http://noahpinionblog.blog...
by scone
Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3206

Re: Paying portfolio fees to Fidelity vs investing on own

If you want to stay with Fidelity, which is the easiest option, just go with the Spartan Advantage series. They are very cheap. Here's a list of them in the wiki, with everything you need for a decent portfolio. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fidelity
by scone
Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying portfolio fees to Fidelity vs investing on own
Replies: 17
Views: 1397

Re: Ashley Furniture

Personally I avoid Criagslist, partly for security reasons and partly because of the possibility of fleas and bed bugs. I would never buy from a hotel liquidator or a flea market. Mattresses should be bought new and sealed in plastic, and preferably not delivered in the same trucks that haul away o...
by scone
Tue Nov 04, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ashley Furniture
Replies: 42
Views: 3444

Re: Core bond holding?

Either Total Bond or Treasuries. If you really like mortgage bonds, Total Bond has some of that. Personally I like Treasuries because of the way they balance stock risk. Some people split 50/50 using Total Bond and TIPs (inflation protected Treasuries). Either way should be fine, and you can search ...
by scone
Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core bond holding?
Replies: 4
Views: 633

Re: Ashley Furniture

I just looked over the web site and I wasn't terribly impressed. The better brands provide a "specifications sheet" giving details on how the piece was made. There's nothing on Ashley "quality" other than some marketing video which is meaningless. Personally I avoid Criagslist, p...
by scone
Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ashley Furniture
Replies: 42
Views: 3444

Re: Investing in Art, Antiques, and Collectibles and wines

Because it's a complete crap shoot. At the higher end, the value of art and antiques depends on how fashionable they are-- if high end designers suddenly decide to hate on Abstract Expressionism, the value is lowered. They fell in love with graffiti at one point, and suddenly Jean-Michel Basquiat wa...
by scone
Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Art, Antiques, and Collectibles and wines
Replies: 53
Views: 4074

Re: "Why Bother With Bonds" -- A Gem

"The pros and cons of international bonds seem to cancel each other. So when in doubt, choose simplicity. Stick with U.S. bonds." This is likely very true, if you are American, and plan to live only in America. For "foreigners," dual citizens, ex-pats, Americans married to non-A...
by scone
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Bother With Bonds" -- A Gem
Replies: 33
Views: 8861

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I'll bite. The time period covers the Tech Wreck and the Great Recession, so various slices of the UB&H were repeatedly taken out and shot. Whereas Wellington benefited from its "safe" image and great track record, attracting assets because it's easy to "grab" in your 401k. S...
by scone
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 59
Views: 4694

Re: your advisor should act like a good doctor

Scone I basically agree. If you could make these predictions like in science with say gravity, then there would be no risk. But investing isn't like that. There are always unpredictable events that occur, so all we can do is understand the nature of risks and expected returns, the sources of return...
by scone
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: your advisor should act like a good doctor
Replies: 48
Views: 4019
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