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Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

This might not be about finances, really, since you are doing pretty well, looking at it objectively. You might be clinically depressed. The tell is a lack of close friends. Internet "correspondence" is great, but you need human contact. You also need to have meaning in your life, either t...
by scone
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 93
Views: 5704

Re: Fidelity BrokerageLink 401K question

I use BrokerageLink, and can buy just about anything other than "adviser only" funds. So that includes mutual funds, ETFs, bonds, and CDs. Vanguard has quite a few low minimum funds, but you could start out with ETFs and switch when you hit the minimum, if you like. Schwab also has some lo...
by scone
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity BrokerageLink 401K question
Replies: 6
Views: 379

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I'm betting 2.5% is pretty bombproof. I'd rather save more than risk more.
by scone
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3746

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

BTW if people in high stress financial jobs and fund management could be fired for yelling at people or throwing their toys out of the pram, half the fund managers and senior execs on Wall Street would be out of a job. Some of the hedge fund managers are legendary for their tantrums. I had a girlfr...
by scone
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8031

Re: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell

I sold out of Total Return some time ago, partly because of manager risk, but at the time I was thinking retirement or (God forbid) Bill's demise. I never could have predicted this quarrel in a million years. So now I'm in Treasuries-- probably won't make as much money, but no issues with the rock s...
by scone
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell
Replies: 28
Views: 2217

Re: Going forward

Total ripoff, no question about it. You can buy advice by the hour, and reduce your expenses massively. That means you make a lot more money. This is especially important if equity returns are somewhat muted going forward. If you make 5%, your taxes are 1%, and your expenses are 1%, that leaves 3% f...
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going forward
Replies: 7
Views: 810

Re: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all

I think everybody should go through this. In a way, living through the recent big crash was the best way for me to begin as a seriuos investor. You don't know your real risk tolerance until you see massive amounts of money disappear in a microsecond.
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all day
Replies: 60
Views: 5405

Re: Simplifying ETF holdings for serious buy-and-accumulate

Wow. Look, I've got 10 stock slices, so I'm not telling you to boil this down to a 3 fund portfolio, but you must see this is simply absurd. All you really need is reasonable coverage of large cap, small cap, domestic and international. Throw in some emerging market and REITs, and you're done. IIWY,...
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplifying ETF holdings for serious buy-and-accumulate
Replies: 18
Views: 1631

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Stocks don't know how long you have owned them. If they are risky at time point x, then why can't they be risky at time point x plus whatever? In fact, if stocks became somehow less risky, that is, if the equity risk premium diminished permanently, their attractiveness as investments would also dimi...
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Why don't you do Financial Planning?

A lot of people who post here are financial planners, bloggers, CPAs, retirement researchers, professional traders, etc. I suspect a few might even be active managers, posting anonymously. :D
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why don't you do Financial Planning?
Replies: 41
Views: 3201

Re: What next?

Two years is a long time in real estate, so IIWY I wouldn't be concerned about renting the house until just before you want to buy. However, reading up on the business of renting property might be helpful. As for the money, if you are certain you will need it in a couple of years, for any reason, yo...
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What next?
Replies: 4
Views: 444

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

This paper is my favorite on the topic. John Norstad used to post here a bit.

http://www.norstad.org/finance/risk-and-time.html
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Adding Momentum and Quality factor exposure

I picked QICLX, but only after I figured my weighted average expense ratio. My biggest funds are very cheap, so a splurge on one or two more expensive ones didn't hurt. So YMMV depending on what's available to you.
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding Momentum and Quality factor exposure
Replies: 4
Views: 314

Re: Professional gambler in unique investment situation

In addition to "normal" investing, IIWY I'd have a lot of insurance, essentially forms of disability. In a sense, you are a "knowledge worker," entirely dependent on your mind for your support. If you lose your edge even just a little, you could be in trouble. Even relatively man...
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Professional gambler in unique investment situation
Replies: 22
Views: 3270

Re: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?

I'd say my body is my riskiest "asset." Even if I take care of myself, I can get sick, have an accident, or be killed in any number of ways.
by scone
Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?
Replies: 81
Views: 7101

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

2008 was scary. Like end of the world apocalypse scary. Rising interest rates, not so much. Go over to Simba's backtester, and plug in 70% 5 year Treasuries with 30% stocks. Look at the rising rate periods. It's just... meh. That's what I'm expecting over the next few years. Lots of meh.
by scone
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3180

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

Take a look at the Hamilton Ventura, as worn by Elvis and the Men in Black:

https://www.google.com/search?q=hamilto ... CAcQ_AUoAg
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 236
Views: 9743

Re: Avoiding Credit Collectors

Many years ago, my uncle (I had never met him, long story) died. I arranged and paid for his funeral, and helped his girlfriend with the details. The next thing I knew, the hospital where he had spent his last hours tried to bill me for his care, even though I had not been there to sign him in, and ...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding Credit Collectors
Replies: 3
Views: 356

Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

The meme frequently heard on this board is: "if your stock allocation worries you, you're carrying too much stock." In your case, you sound quite anxious. If a lower stock allocation gets you to your goals, then why not consider it? There's no point in increasing your stress by trying to &...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 23
Views: 1899

Re: Tiny house movement.

The size of the house would not bother me, but this would: "The house will be on wheels so no permits nor codes apply." Personally, I would not want to put kids in a house that was not bolted to a solid foundation, if I could help it. If you google the phrase "trailer tornado" an...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [can my family live in a] Tiny house
Replies: 60
Views: 4074

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

FWIW, there was a "rebalancing into poverty" thread a while back, and Larry Swedroe said he only rebalances to the upside. IIRC he also said if you have "enough," you could do that-- you lose some diversification, but gain the "sleep at night" factor. For myself, I'm tr...
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 13987

Re: Clean, quiet, safe and cheap. Is there such a travel pla

The back country of Australia can be fairly cheap, and it's pretty safe. Because of the heat, I would stay down south at this time of year-- possibly Tasmania. But if you want to be near the Great Barrier Reef, try Macleay island, near Brisbane.
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clean, quiet, safe and cheap. Is there such a travel place?
Replies: 75
Views: 5749

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

I've set my international allocation and I'm sticking to it. However, this might be a good time to start planning a European vacation. Or maybe drive up to Quebec-- it's just four hours from where I live in NH! :D
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1474

Re: Help with Vanguard Slice and Dice 80-20 Portfolio

Alternatively, you could put the money into the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio, with bonds split between intermediate and long Treasuries (because the port is dominated by stocks). This is the one I use, primarily for the diversification-- it covers the 9 Morningstar boxes rather well. Worth a look...
by scone
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Vanguard Slice and Dice 80-20 Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 752

Re: HELOC Vent

Losing your documents is very concerning. That type of thing would make me sever all relations with the bank, and I'm sorry to say it's not that uncommon, in my experience. You could give them a bad review on yelp, if it makes you feel better, but I wouldn't pursue an age discrimination case. "...
by scone
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC Vent
Replies: 19
Views: 2029

Re: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?

Another Merriman-like portfolio here. I particularly wanted to focus on lowering the drawdowns compared to other types of portfolios, and the diversification helps with that goal.
by scone
Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 85
Views: 6624

Re: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts

As noted above, EDV could crash pretty hard in some circumstances. Personally, I use FLBAX for 5% of my total portfolio right now. That's basically to hedge against market panics. It's got about a 16 year duration, so it's less sensitive to interest rates than EDV, but it still has a real return. FL...
by scone
Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1004

Re: Programming and Database Classes

The best way to learn about database systems is to work on database systems. I started by fixing old legacy systems with lots of patches, spaghetti, and zero documentation. Or almost zero. I once found a comment that read, "I think I'm losing my mind, I'm getting addicted to cocaine to keep up ...
by scone
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Programming and Database Classes
Replies: 15
Views: 1077

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

There is a massive, massive lack of trust and communication here, and that's the real heart of the problem. The secretiveness of the husband, and his thinking that the wife can get along "at the poverty level" makes me think some sort of funny business is going on. One danger is that the h...
by scone
Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 17399

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor :oops: Wow. Jack Bogle has explained the double hit by following that strategy. First one sells out at the bottom to cash and then misses the rebound. What gets me is the inher...
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3526

Re: Kaiser vs Blue Shield

Just for the record, I had Kaiser as an HMO, using a capitation system. I believe this is the heart of the moral hazard problem, as there is a strong incentive to deny care and keep care dollars within the physician group. As I understand it, the physicians pocketed the money they did not spend on p...
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kaiser vs Blue Shield
Replies: 83
Views: 5601

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor :oops:
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3526

Re: Kaiser vs Blue Shield

I did not have a good experience with Kaiser. For years, I had severe symptoms that were consistently misdiagnosed, sometimes as one thing, sometimes as another. For a while they thought I had MS. What I actually had was a bad case of hypothyroidism, but Kaiser absolutely refused to put me on a tria...
by scone
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kaiser vs Blue Shield
Replies: 83
Views: 5601

Re: Quote from a mover: Please comment

If you are going to "hand deliver" some stuff, I would strongly recommend PODS. Now that's assuming you can park the PODS module in a space for some length of time. I've moved dozens of times, and for me, this is by far the least stressful method. Good luck.
by scone
Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quote from a mover: Please comment
Replies: 46
Views: 3894

Re: Convincing fears on investing for now?

I have no idea whether "the market" is frothy or not. So I invest all over the globe, in large caps and small caps, leaning a bit to value instead of growth. I like to think I'm getting the planetary average of valuations, and I feel that's the best I can do. And now that I've made my best...
by scone
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing fears on investing for now?
Replies: 33
Views: 3369

Re: Bond Question

Forget the Janus fund. If it were my money, I'd put at least 50% into the Total Bond fund, because the expense ratio is so cheap. OTOH, TIPS are Treasuries, and a higher credit quality is worth something, as is the inflation protection. So maybe 100% of current money in Total Bond, with 100% new con...
by scone
Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Question
Replies: 7
Views: 476

Re: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.

I like the research, and I like helping other people. But placing a trade makes me physically ill-- nausea, migraine, etc. So I keep my rebalancing efforts to once per year. Guess I'll never be a day trader. :wink:
by scone
Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 2383

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

Ah, yes, high tech NoCal. Been there, done that. Try Livermore. We liked it, and you can still find foreclosed houses there. Half a million buys a decent ranch. Save the difference, and send the kids to private school. Or save and move up to Intel in Oregon, or Bellevue. Or New Hampshire, like we di...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 105
Views: 11302

Re: Where do you buy clothes?

Talbots for sportswear and dresses, although the quality isn't what it was. Nordstrom for underthings, scarves, and tailored blazers. Macy's is hit or miss. I wait for the half yearly sales on J Crew and Ralph Lauren, which can often be 75% off or even more. Consignment stores for jewelry. I never g...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you buy clothes?
Replies: 105
Views: 9248

Re: Theater seating for basement projection TV

I've seen some leather theater seating recliners, with cup holders, in one of our local consignment shops. Massively discounted from new retail. Many people here are older, downsizing, and moving to Florida-- they don't want to move these huge beasts. So the deals are out there.
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Theater seating for basement projection TV
Replies: 5
Views: 859

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

I use IEIS. Too soon to tell if it's good... :happy
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 8
Views: 1047

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

I've had two motorcycles, and they were great for commuting and errands. As a woman with short legs, I had small cruisers, so I could sit with both feet firmly on the ground. You might or might not be able to find these older models (used, obviously): Yamaha RD 350, Suzuki GS 450 L. A newer one migh...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 67
Views: 4028

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

M2 is getting so low FRED may have to redraw it soon. :shock:

Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

Image
by scone
Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2684

Re: I...I don't even know where to begin.

Hi there! :D You don't have to do anything you're not comfortable with, there's really no pressure at all. In order to cut down the universe of choices, IIWY I'd ask myself various questions, such as: What am I saving/investing for? Is this money taxable, or in a tax advantaged account like a 401k? ...
by scone
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I...I don't even know where to begin.
Replies: 19
Views: 3078

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

scone Doesn't mean it's "wrong" No one right minimize tail allocation. it's just that IMO it's less diversified than could be and I would not recommend it--why leave out rest of developed world small value which is accessible. And I would certainly use EMV (or EMS) not EM, get that premiu...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1755

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Hi, I just had a convo with Larry Swedroe on another thread, he says he didn't recommend the "half EM, half SCV" Minimize Fat Tails portfolio that's in the spreadsheet. This is what he says: Don't know where that allocation came from. But to me the choice of bonds is personal. Nominals wou...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 608
Views: 375366

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Don't know where that allocation came from. But to me the choice of bonds is personal. Nominals would use Intermediate, like 5- year Treasury (CDs better usually) and TIPS can also be used, and 50-50 tips and nominals also fine But definitely never showed 50% EM and 50% US SV. Suggest something lik...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1755

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Scone Larry Portfolio for equity portion would be 50% US SV, 37.5% ISV and 12.5% EMV Larry Interesting. FWIW the Portfolio Visualizer, which uses the Simba data IIRC, says your Minimize Fat Tails portfolio is 15% EM, 15% SCV, 35% 2 year T bills, and 35% Tips. So is the Minimize different from the L...
by scone
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1755

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Some random thoughts and suggestions. 20% gold will really drag down returns-- a little seems to go a long way. IIRC the Larry portfolio is 15% emerging market, 15% SCV. The combination is the thing-- correlations. Try running Trev H's Simplified Buy and Hold with 4 equal slices, 28% stock allocatio...
by scone
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1755

Re: Advice: Remodel of kitchen, bath, and basement?

Unless you have some really strange building conditions, you probably don't need an architect. And in your price bracket, you probably can't afford the guys who practice around NYC. Going with a design/build is an option, but it would be better to get competitive bids. IIWY I'd get an independent ki...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice: Remodel of kitchen, bath, and basement?
Replies: 30
Views: 1487
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