Bogleheads.org

Why lock yourself in to the minimum, when the upside is so much more likely (expected) than the downside? Pascal's Wager. Even if the downside risk is small, the consequences should that risk show up are huge. It's the risk of "blowing up" and losing so much of your stake that you can nev...

scone The steepest part of the curve is typically at the short end, out to about 2 years you get the highest Sharpe Ratio Also note that the steeper the curve the higher the premium has been. So it's a balance between the shortest, say one-month bills and the term premium. Also note for munis the c...

O.K., I'm confused. If you don't need bonds for income, but simply to dampen the volatility you get from stocks, then why wouldn't you generally (all other things equal), prefer shorter, less volatile bonds, even with their reinvestment risk? TIA

I'm using a "home brew" glide path strategy as we get closer to retirement, namely lowering my stock allocation slightly, and shortening my bond duration. I'm also considering locking up a larger portion of the funds in Stable Value and CDs, so I have a secure "backup plan" for i...

Welcome! Just glancing at this list, without a deep dive into research, these would be my picks: Colmbia Large Cap Index Fd Class Z NINDX 0.20 <-- for large caps T Rowe Price Mid Cap Value TRMCX 0.81 <-- this actually has mid to small caps Lincoln Stable Value C65 <-- for part of your bond fund, pro...

What I don't understand is why is anyone so surprised that with all the manpower and computer power and profit incentive that we would not eventually come up with a better model, just as FF did. Do you recall the Myers-Briggs Personality Types? I think some people tend to find new information threa...

We hold our 401k and Roths at Fidelity, and it does take some time for the accounts to clear. I have some money sitting there "pending" and it's been days now. I wonder if Fidelity or their agents make money off the float? Or are small retail investors last in line to get everything execut...

For a retired individual seeking income, not wanting to take additional risk (increase % stocks), if bonds are not the answer, and it seems that currently it is not, and other fixed income like CDs are yielding close to zero, what is the alternative? The only riskless alternatives are to cut expens...

Thank you, Larry, interesting food for thought! Could this factor help explain why Wellesley and Wellington have done so well for so long? At least, I think of Wellington Management as being in the Graham and Dodd tradition.

My husband is in this situation, as he has dual U.K.-Australian citizenship. For us, it's a family thing, not a currency thing. If we inherit in Australian dollars, we will keep the money there and invest it, mostly in CDs and local government bonds. This gives us the option of having money on hand ...

The lovely software on my household account says I spend 24% of my monthly budget on groceries. I'm not sure what percentage is "fun stuff." I figure, since we are saving about 50% of our gross income, we need a few small luxuries. Otherwise there's too much deprivation, and we wouldn't st...

I'd like to go with all bonds, myself, but I can't make the numbers work even with a 2.5% withdrawal rate. Not at current interest rates, anyway. So I'm at 30% stock right now, planning to take it down to 25% over the next few years-- we retire in 4 years. I will also hold several years worth of &qu...

I'm not sure if this is the "right" way to do it, but here's how I did it. I have set percentages for each asset class, 30% stock and 70% bond. I break down the stock asset class into a couple of smaller subclasses, primarily Total Stock and Small Cap Value. The bond class is split between...

I'm finding it utterly nerve-wracking. I actually think I like bear markets better. I can totally relate. This is my first bull market. I just finished rebalancing from a couple of percent beyond my band, back into the low end of my band. I know this is supposed to be a good thing, but it didn't fe...

5-6% is more reasonable? any recommendation. Sadly, if you are investing in America, with low interest rates, a "safe" investment just won't cut the mustard. You'll have to take some sort of risk. But o.k.--this isn't the standard Boglehead reply, because I'm going to suggest an actively ...

Mr. Leesboro says "Huh," and I says how does one pass muster with insurance commissioners using equities with all those insurance subsidiaries? snip I wonder how all this will eventually affect Stable Value funds, especially if interest rates start to rise. I mean, the guarantee is given ...

Can you set up a Roth in addition to the other plan? If so, I would put the small cap in there.

5-6% is more reasonable? any recommendation. Sadly, if you are investing in America, with low interest rates, a "safe" investment just won't cut the mustard. You'll have to take some sort of risk. But o.k.--this isn't the standard Boglehead reply, because I'm going to suggest an actively ...

Scone. You are the man! You got the point of what I was trying to say. Thanks! Although I'm not a woman, FWIW... I'll say one thing for rebalancing, it really hurts. I just had to do it, and selling my winners to buy bonds that don't pay anything was really painful-- literally! I just took two Exce...

What nedsaid said. (Sorry, couldn't help myself.) As an investor, you start out with a certain (imperfect) state of knowledge, and that level (hopefully) increases with study and experience. I would say it's difficult for a "beginning" investor, like me, to hit on a perfect portfolio at th...

It took guts to post your story. I raise a glass to you! :sharebeer I also think you are further ahead of the game than you may realize. Substantial cash to the good, after all you have been through, and kids to raise, isn't bad at all. From here, you could certainly build a secure retirement, and h...

I've been fiddling around with backtesters lately, especially Simba's (it's in the wiki). The results suggest that the safest play is the 5 year T-bill, plus Total Bond. I've been focusing on a 30% Stock, 70% bond allocation, and the T-bill/Total Bond set, joined with TSM plus Small Cap Value, gives...

The young man at my local Fido office is very nice, but no genius. This is his first major job after college. I like to give him the paperwork to set up accounts, so he can make a living, but I don't take advice from him. Nobody can force you to sign anything. You can listen, say thank you very much...

100% I assumed they were looking for superficial answers, not deep thought. I can do that.

As for the issue that they can guess what you paid for it, unless the recipients are awfully unworldly that's true of just about any gift. (The only way it wouldn't be is if you are re-gifting, or passing off a salvage store second as new.... which is definitely tacky). Um, no. You can figure out p...

It's not exactly tacky, but it's always awkward when the recipients of the gift can easily figure out what you paid for it. It's also awkward that the gift is essentially money or money-like, which can be construed as "I couldn't be bothered picking out something you might like, so here's somet...

Well, as my FIL liked to say, "worse things happen at sea." I would take a look at the Contrafund, which used to be pretty mighty, and is about as respectable as you are going to get in this bunch. The Wells Fargo bond fund actually isn't awful, it was pacing Pimco Total Return until mid-2...

Well, don't get totally discouraged just yet, you never know. Just out of curiosity, would you mind sharing the artist's name, and maybe the name of the piece? I don't know the name of the piece...I'm guessing it's on the paperwork I have at home possibly? The name of the artist is Miroslav. Here's...

Well, don't get totally discouraged just yet, you never know. Just out of curiosity, would you mind sharing the artist's name, and maybe the name of the piece?

Find a couple of real art galleries which take consignments. The gallery should have a good web site, and it's better if it's a larger city, for more traffic. You'll need to review the consignment policy, and make sure the gallery has a good reputation and insurance, in writing. A reputable place wi...

If it were me, I'd sell the rental, and refinance the primary residence, adding in the rental equity. That will get you to zero debt more quickly, and with a lower monthly payment, should alleviate the 'living paycheck to paycheck' feeling.

Working my way through college had a huge impact, although I didn't know it at the time. Taking out a lot of student loans never even occurred to me.

I don't think you're a slacker. Saving should have some sort of purpose, it shouldn't be just a neurotic reflex, IMO. It's important to enjoy life. We save about 50% of gross, but that's because we plan to build a retirement home in the next couple of years.

So, stay the course? 20%TBM is a reasonable allocation for a 30 year old? I can't say, because there is no "generic" 30-year-old. The question is whether 20% TBM is right for you, not anybody else. In any case, I interpret "stay the course" as "don't panic and sell everythi...

I have read atleast 15 different articles on bonds in the last 10 days. As a fairly new investor who has a 30-35 years horizon, I am pretty worried about the negative returns. Right now, all my money in invested in VASGX (20% TBM). Sometimes I wonder if I should go 100% stocks (70/30 TSM and TISM) ...

I have read atleast 15 different articles on bonds in the last 10 days. As a fairly new investor who has a 30-35 years horizon, I am pretty worried about the negative returns. Right now, all my money in invested in VASGX (20% TBM). Sometimes I wonder if I should go 100% stocks (70/30 TSM and TISM) ...

"...it's bond math, backed by a legal contract." And there's the rub. As long as the default rates on various types of bonds stays reasonably predictable, you're o.k. You have "known known" default risks that the market can price in. But if the default rate becomes unstable, then...

That's odd. PTTRX isn't a TIPS fund, per se, although it does hold some TIPS, IIRC. A real TIPS fund would be something like VIPSX.

Vanguard is in a price war with Fidelity, et.al. The Fidelity Spartan Advantage Funds are now competitive with Vanguard ETFs. I say, bring it.

I've been fiddling with Simba's backtester for some time now, and the one lesson I've learned is that bonds are necessary, for me. I can get a decent return without bonds, given the timespan, but the crashes are simply sickening, and the crashes are a big drag on returns. Adding bonds obviously redu...

"The average person will need to replace 80-90 percent of their pre-retirement income." We're saving half our income now, so we only need to replace a portion of that, assuming we get Social Security. (But then we're not planning any wild spending sprees after we retire.) OTOH the average ...

I'm looking forward to rate increases with hopeful anticipation, partly because of the yield, and partly because it implies the real economy is picking up. Of course, that could also imply a 70's style stagflation, but even that is better than a Great Depression II or a Japan scenario. As long as th...

What is the minimum perecentage of stocks one should have to withdraw 4% inflation adjusted for 30 years. Is 30% stocks to low for 4% withdrawl for 30 years? I think I recall reading that the Trinity Study was 40% stock/60% bonds but I might be wrong. I would appreciate any comments. Thanks :happy ...

It seems to me, if you have enough, such that you can live on dividiends and interest, you could "automatically" discipline yourself to stay within your withdrawal "safe zone," which is a good thing in itself. And you might well be less likely to have to sell stocks when the mark...

If I'm reading this right, you are doing very well. There are only a couple of things that, to me at least, could be adjusted. For example, IIWY I'd use some of that $174,000 to pay off the car loan-- there's no sense in keeping the loan. The $95,141.77 money market account in taxable is essentially...

30% stocks, 70% bonds with a big chunk in Stable Value is my formula, and I'm happy with it. I feel it gives me some protection against inflation, but not too much stock risk, since we will be retiring soon. I spread the stock allocation over TSM, small value, Wellington, Wellesley, and foreign. Acc...

ZIRP continues, housing market starting to show signs of life, unemployment numbers looking a little better, etc. And still not much inflation, at least official inflation. In that kind of environment, it would be weird of the stock market did not rise.

I hear you about bond funds, but you have to give up something to get safety. How about munis? I'm considering the Vanguard intermediate one, which has pretty good credits and a 5.1 year duration:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT

P.S. Another good resource I forgot to mention is the J.Crew sale page on their website. They often have things there at a radical discount, and good quality for the price. They have a herringbone sports jacket that's just about in your price range right now: http://www.jcrew.com/mens_category/sport...

Hello Munchkin Man, and congratulations! I think you could start out with a couple of button down shirts, some polos in neutral colors, and a couple of pairs of chinos. You can save a little money on these things, but the sports jacket is absolutely critical. If that isn't high quality, the whole ou...