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Re: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?

Another Merriman-like portfolio here. I particularly wanted to focus on lowering the drawdowns compared to other types of portfolios, and the diversification helps with that goal.
by scone
Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 71
Views: 4068

Re: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts

As noted above, EDV could crash pretty hard in some circumstances. Personally, I use FLBAX for 5% of my total portfolio right now. That's basically to hedge against market panics. It's got about a 16 year duration, so it's less sensitive to interest rates than EDV, but it still has a real return. FL...
by scone
Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts?
Replies: 8
Views: 858

Re: Programming and Database Classes

The best way to learn about database systems is to work on database systems. I started by fixing old legacy systems with lots of patches, spaghetti, and zero documentation. Or almost zero. I once found a comment that read, "I think I'm losing my mind, I'm getting addicted to cocaine to keep up ...
by scone
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Programming and Database Classes
Replies: 15
Views: 1041

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

There is a massive, massive lack of trust and communication here, and that's the real heart of the problem. The secretiveness of the husband, and his thinking that the wife can get along "at the poverty level" makes me think some sort of funny business is going on. One danger is that the h...
by scone
Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 16874

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor :oops: Wow. Jack Bogle has explained the double hit by following that strategy. First one sells out at the bottom to cash and then misses the rebound. What gets me is the inher...
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3418

Re: Kaiser vs Blue Shield

Just for the record, I had Kaiser as an HMO, using a capitation system. I believe this is the heart of the moral hazard problem, as there is a strong incentive to deny care and keep care dollars within the physician group. As I understand it, the physicians pocketed the money they did not spend on p...
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kaiser vs Blue Shield
Replies: 83
Views: 5072

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor :oops:
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3418

Re: Kaiser vs Blue Shield

I did not have a good experience with Kaiser. For years, I had severe symptoms that were consistently misdiagnosed, sometimes as one thing, sometimes as another. For a while they thought I had MS. What I actually had was a bad case of hypothyroidism, but Kaiser absolutely refused to put me on a tria...
by scone
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kaiser vs Blue Shield
Replies: 83
Views: 5072

Re: Quote from a mover: Please comment

If you are going to "hand deliver" some stuff, I would strongly recommend PODS. Now that's assuming you can park the PODS module in a space for some length of time. I've moved dozens of times, and for me, this is by far the least stressful method. Good luck.
by scone
Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quote from a mover: Please comment
Replies: 46
Views: 3753

Re: Convincing fears on investing for now?

I have no idea whether "the market" is frothy or not. So I invest all over the globe, in large caps and small caps, leaning a bit to value instead of growth. I like to think I'm getting the planetary average of valuations, and I feel that's the best I can do. And now that I've made my best...
by scone
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing fears on investing for now?
Replies: 33
Views: 3325

Re: Bond Question

Forget the Janus fund. If it were my money, I'd put at least 50% into the Total Bond fund, because the expense ratio is so cheap. OTOH, TIPS are Treasuries, and a higher credit quality is worth something, as is the inflation protection. So maybe 100% of current money in Total Bond, with 100% new con...
by scone
Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Question
Replies: 7
Views: 467

Re: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.

I like the research, and I like helping other people. But placing a trade makes me physically ill-- nausea, migraine, etc. So I keep my rebalancing efforts to once per year. Guess I'll never be a day trader. :wink:
by scone
Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 2366

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

Ah, yes, high tech NoCal. Been there, done that. Try Livermore. We liked it, and you can still find foreclosed houses there. Half a million buys a decent ranch. Save the difference, and send the kids to private school. Or save and move up to Intel in Oregon, or Bellevue. Or New Hampshire, like we di...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 105
Views: 11049

Re: Where do you buy clothes?

Talbots for sportswear and dresses, although the quality isn't what it was. Nordstrom for underthings, scarves, and tailored blazers. Macy's is hit or miss. I wait for the half yearly sales on J Crew and Ralph Lauren, which can often be 75% off or even more. Consignment stores for jewelry. I never g...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you buy clothes?
Replies: 105
Views: 9109

Re: Theater seating for basement projection TV

I've seen some leather theater seating recliners, with cup holders, in one of our local consignment shops. Massively discounted from new retail. Many people here are older, downsizing, and moving to Florida-- they don't want to move these huge beasts. So the deals are out there.
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Theater seating for basement projection TV
Replies: 5
Views: 844

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

I use IEIS. Too soon to tell if it's good... :happy
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 8
Views: 985

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

I've had two motorcycles, and they were great for commuting and errands. As a woman with short legs, I had small cruisers, so I could sit with both feet firmly on the ground. You might or might not be able to find these older models (used, obviously): Yamaha RD 350, Suzuki GS 450 L. A newer one migh...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 63
Views: 3700

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

M2 is getting so low FRED may have to redraw it soon. :shock:

Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

Image
by scone
Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2663

Re: I...I don't even know where to begin.

Hi there! :D You don't have to do anything you're not comfortable with, there's really no pressure at all. In order to cut down the universe of choices, IIWY I'd ask myself various questions, such as: What am I saving/investing for? Is this money taxable, or in a tax advantaged account like a 401k? ...
by scone
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I...I don't even know where to begin.
Replies: 19
Views: 2991

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

scone Doesn't mean it's "wrong" No one right minimize tail allocation. it's just that IMO it's less diversified than could be and I would not recommend it--why leave out rest of developed world small value which is accessible. And I would certainly use EMV (or EMS) not EM, get that premiu...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1718

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Hi, I just had a convo with Larry Swedroe on another thread, he says he didn't recommend the "half EM, half SCV" Minimize Fat Tails portfolio that's in the spreadsheet. This is what he says: Don't know where that allocation came from. But to me the choice of bonds is personal. Nominals wou...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 608
Views: 372728

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Don't know where that allocation came from. But to me the choice of bonds is personal. Nominals would use Intermediate, like 5- year Treasury (CDs better usually) and TIPS can also be used, and 50-50 tips and nominals also fine But definitely never showed 50% EM and 50% US SV. Suggest something lik...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1718

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Scone Larry Portfolio for equity portion would be 50% US SV, 37.5% ISV and 12.5% EMV Larry Interesting. FWIW the Portfolio Visualizer, which uses the Simba data IIRC, says your Minimize Fat Tails portfolio is 15% EM, 15% SCV, 35% 2 year T bills, and 35% Tips. So is the Minimize different from the L...
by scone
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1718

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Some random thoughts and suggestions. 20% gold will really drag down returns-- a little seems to go a long way. IIRC the Larry portfolio is 15% emerging market, 15% SCV. The combination is the thing-- correlations. Try running Trev H's Simplified Buy and Hold with 4 equal slices, 28% stock allocatio...
by scone
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1718

Re: Advice: Remodel of kitchen, bath, and basement?

Unless you have some really strange building conditions, you probably don't need an architect. And in your price bracket, you probably can't afford the guys who practice around NYC. Going with a design/build is an option, but it would be better to get competitive bids. IIWY I'd get an independent ki...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice: Remodel of kitchen, bath, and basement?
Replies: 30
Views: 1424

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

Let's say you are holding a 50% stock, 50% bond portfolio. The stock portion is 50% domestic, 50% international. The bond portion is in the AGG. So your total international exposure isn't that high. If your stock allocation is less than 50%, half in international, and your bonds are Treasuries, your...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12394

Re: Buying land and building house

There are so many books on residential construction, I couldn't list them all. Two of my faves are Make Your House Do the Housework and Build It Right! There's an architect, Ross Chapin, who sells quite decent small house plans. But what you really need is an honest contractor willing to take on a v...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying land and building house
Replies: 22
Views: 2510

Re: HUFF POST: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Pub

Weren't the leading Bogleheads going to start some sort of financial literacy project? IIRC I heard about it at a previous conference.
by scone
Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huff Post: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Public?
Replies: 52
Views: 4623

Re: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student

Thanks any idea of any super companies that let you invest with vanguard because its to complected and expensive to set up a self managed super fund? i found sunsuper who have a range of index options available and seem to be fairly low cost by australian standards. I'm not sure about this, I'm a Y...
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student
Replies: 9
Views: 497

Re: global diversification works in long term

I'm at 50% international, 50% domestic in my equity allocation, but almost all American in my bonds. Thus my Fido widget says I'm weighted 91% to American overall. Even 100% international stock would still give me a massive "home country bias."
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global diversification works in long term
Replies: 21
Views: 1918

Re: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student

My husband had an AMP deal similar to this, which his father arranged for him when he was at Uni. it's a long time ago now, but IIRC the numbers made it a very poor choice, and it was difficult to drop it. AMP threw in a lot of blocks-- they were making money, so they didn't want to let us out. It t...
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student
Replies: 9
Views: 497

Re: Need Perspective and Advise

I think this guy is full of it. A 40% stock, 60% bond indexed portfolio is an absolute classic that will serve you well. A tiny basket of stocks is a lot less diverse than the allocation you have-- it makes no sense. This guy is trying to frighten you into giving him money. One percent per year, com...
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Perspective and Advise
Replies: 21
Views: 1818

Re: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?

As a taxpayer, I'm proud to help back your mortgage. As far as the market goes, you need to look at your rental costs versus your total costs of ownership. That's a major factor in the rent versus buy decision. And the problem of the market tanking after you buy is part of your risk, obviously, but ...
by scone
Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?
Replies: 64
Views: 3256

Re: Selling House - Do We Need a Listing Broker?

I agree, the current real estate business model should be killed stone dead. I hired a full service broker to sell my home, and 11 days after the house hits the MLS, with poor description and photos I might add, I still have no sign on the property. And now the guy is not returning my calls or email...
by scone
Mon Jul 28, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling House - Do We Need a Listing Broker?
Replies: 61
Views: 2787

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

Some of the asset classes go back before the '70's, and some do not. The modern form of the S & P 500 dates to 1957. TIPs date from 1997. So the backtesters we have are working with a relatively small dataset. Don't try to use the backtester to derive exact answers, it's an educational tool. It ...
by scone
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2567

Re: How Should I Manage My 401k?

1. There's no way to know in advance which assets are going to make the most money going forward. If I knew that, I'd be posting from my own private island. 2. No. You already have all the tools you need. 3. No, you have some good, cheap funds here. You need a coherent structure for the portfolio as...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Should I Manage My 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 729

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

Why don't you download the Simba spreadsheet on this site, google above, and put this spreadsheet in there? If you spend a few hundred hours playing with that and reading the books, you won't need to ask anyone else. You will have developed your own unique portfolio tailored to your needs. You can a...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2567

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

What would your suggested asset allocation be if I wanted to take on a similar risk to my current allocation but with the tilts I've decided on? It would be a really lousy idea for me to give you some random AA off the top of my head. I don't know you. In any case, the work that goes into creating ...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2567

Re: Buying a Home - Town permit records don't match disclosu

The amount and type of permitting required depends on the town, and the nature of the work done. I just finished two remodels, and since I didn't change any electrical or plumbing, there were no permits. For example, my town doesn't care if you remove all the kitchen cabinets and replace them with n...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home - Town permit records don't match disclosures
Replies: 57
Views: 3569

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

For bonds, I would skip the corporates and go with a mix of shorter term nominal Treasuries, TIPs, and a little bit of long term Treasuries for "panic" scenarios. You can stick with the Blackrock funds as much as possible, as they are cheaper, and put your small cap value in the Roths. One...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2567

Re: Need Investing Advice

You have a lot of funds here, and quite a bit in money market, which is losing to inflation and doing nothing to help when stocks are down. You should consolidate into the Spartan Advantage series funds, which are quite cheap, and fill in, if need be, with the iShares ETFs that trade free at Fido. T...
by scone
Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Investing Advice
Replies: 17
Views: 1532

Re: Best On-line Portfolio trackers

Do you mean a portfolio backtester, or a modeling program to analyze your current portfolio?
by scone
Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best On-line Portfolio trackers
Replies: 16
Views: 1668

Re: Help on choosing between investing/paying mortgage/colle

Why do you have to choose between them? You could pick 2 or 3, split it many different ways. IIWY I'd build a little spreadsheet and explore the options a bit.
by scone
Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help on choosing between investing/paying mortgage/college
Replies: 12
Views: 914

Re: How to interpret the bond news

telemark wrote:
richard wrote: Ignore the article. It's pure financial porn.

Good entertainment, though. I can't decide which I like better, "pigs at the bond trough" or "mignons of the fed."


Tastes just like chicken! :twisted:
by scone
Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to interpret the bond news
Replies: 5
Views: 800

Re: 500K Sitting in a Bank Account

If there's 500k in one bank account, does that mean you are beyond the FDIC insurance limits? If so, I'd put it in several CDs, possibly a ladder, in different institutions. They should be titled in some logical manner, but that requires some conversation in the family.
by scone
Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500K Sitting in a Bank Account
Replies: 17
Views: 1612

Re: Primer on slice and dice alternatives to total bond mark

Apart from my Stable Value fund, which has some mediocre credits, I use 3 Fido Treasury funds: FSBAX (short), FIBAX (intermediate) and FLBAX (long). The weighted average duration is about 4.5 years, including Stable Value. I have played with various allocations within Treasuries on the Simba backtes...
by scone
Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Primer on slice and dice alternatives to total bond market?
Replies: 8
Views: 619

Re: Slice and Dicers -- Plans when you can't manage it anymo

If you are incapacitated, someone will have too look after it whether it's 3 funds or 15. If the person doing that job can't or won't do it properly, then someone else should-- again, no matter how many slices there are. Personally, I slice, and I've trained my husband so he knows the theory and can...
by scone
Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dicers -- Plans when you can't manage it anymore?
Replies: 38
Views: 2309

Re: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-te

This isn't a recommendation per se, but I hold 30% stock, so obviously my portfolio is dominated by the bond allocation. I have about 15% in Stable Value, which has a duration of about 3 years, IIRC. (My SV is a right royal PITA, so let's not even go there.) The rest is now split among the three Fid...
by scone
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1180

Re: How would you handle this situation if it was you.

I was sort of in a similar situation, back in the 70s. I had scholarships and grants to a good school, but the the oil shock hit and my tuition doubled. I had to leave school, go to work, and live pretty rough for years. I finally got back to school, but it took me 8 years to finish. At times I had ...
by scone
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How would you handle this situation if it was you.
Replies: 15
Views: 2001

Re: Stable Value Fund vs Total Bond Market

I'm not thrilled with our SV. It's basically a mix of short term Treasuries and short term corporates, MBS, and CMBS, with a smattering of other stuff, including hedge funds, private equity, and other questionable "alternative investments." There's nt guaranteed minimum payout. Right now i...
by scone
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Fund vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 27
Views: 2203
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