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Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I think he sometimes oversimplifies his approach in his podcasts and writings. If he were here I would say, "hey Paul, I'm a big girl, I use big words. You can present the science and research, it won't scare me off." This is one of the reasons I like Larry Swedroe-- he's not afraid to pus...
by scone
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 47
Views: 2665

Re: Stock Index or Geared Property (buy to let)

Phrases like "geared property" and "buy to let" make me think the OP is Likely British or Australian. IIRC gearing refers to a mortgage. So likely a comparison between mortgaged rental property returns and the Total Stock index returns is wanted.
by scone
Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Index or Geared Property (buy to let)
Replies: 3
Views: 392

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

No, not at all. Cash is all about liquidity, and liquidity is all about "optionality." That's often useful, in investing and other areas of finance. Let's say you want to buy real estate-- an "all cash" offer can be more appealing to a seller, and that might give you an edge in a...
by scone
Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3762

Re: What is the recommended amount of international holdings

IIWY, I'd ask myself "what purpose do international holdings serve in my particular portfolio?" In other words, do you need more exposure than average? Less exposure? Are you looking for general diversification, or do you want a special tilt toward or away from certain countries? Any other...
by scone
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the recommended amount of international holdings?
Replies: 15
Views: 1687

Re: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yiel

In retrospect, the economists were giving the opinion that their education and training would naturally lead them to. In their minds, the narrative was something like, "pump money into the economy, and you get inflation." That seems perfectly plausible to me, but it didn't work out that wa...
by scone
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3942

Re: Need help - selling stocks and buying funds today

Stop worrying about it, as these things are not under your control. Just buy the mutual funds and leave them alone. That's the whole point of the 3-fund portfolio. Take off your stock picker's hat, put on your passive investor hat.

Then take the stock picker's hat and burn it.
by scone
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help - selling stocks and buying funds today
Replies: 6
Views: 509

Re: Reserve Primary Fund, Final Distribution

I don't know, and I don't even know what I don't know. But this incident played into my decision to put my "safe money" into Treasuries and Stable Value. Treasuries are about as liquid as you can get, but I do have some doubts about our SV, which has a weird mixture of safe stuff and creat...
by scone
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reserve Primary Fund, Final Distribution
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Since I am still accumulating, I can use new money to rebalance, in part. More funds means I've almost always got something doing poorly, so I can put my money there. In some sense I'm "buying low" relative to the choices available at the time I make the trade. I'm not sure it's more "...
by scone
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 26
Views: 1560

Reserve Primary Fund, Final Distribution

It looks like this sorry episode is coming to an end. At least, I hope so. The update on 09-23-14 says they plan on making the final distribution in December of this year. So if you've had this thing sitting in your 401k for years, like I have, I suppose it will disappear and the money, if any is le...
by scone
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reserve Primary Fund, Final Distribution
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

This is what I use. I don't find it complicated as I don't rebalance often, and I only have a 401k plus two Roths to work with. Also, the rest of my financial life is extremely simple-- one checking account shared with my husband, one credit card. So the greater number of funds, to me, is no big dea...
by scone
Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 38
Views: 2287

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Headed for another big down day. Gains for the year just about wiped out for US large caps. Anybody hitting their rebalance bands? Hang in there everyone. Maybe by the end of the next day or two. I was at 27% stock this morning, and I have to get to 25%, that's my lower band. If so, it will be the ...
by scone
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157443

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Anything is possible. But if a relatively small correction like this is too scary for you, then your stock allocation is too high. Simple as that. My asset allocation is built to handle a 50% decline in the S&P that doesn't recover in < 10 years. Sorry, I don't do doomy apocalyse tinfoil hat st...
by scone
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Strange to say, I'm almost excited. After 2000, S&P went to 815 After 2008, S&P went to 798 That is immediately in the rear view mirror. Is this really a great buying opportunity? Overlay the Nikkei. That's an impossible scenario? Even if there's another 50% drop in the S&P, we're all g...
by scone
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

I must have gotten an attitude transplant somewhere along the line, because I'm feeling pretty good about this. Stocks are on sale, and soon I will hit my band. My Treasuries are up, so I'm not even losing a lot of money. Emotionally, I feel relieved that the other shoe has dropped-- it's as if ever...
by scone
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Am I on track? Please take a look.

I think you're doing very well overall. IIWY, at your age, I'd max out the 401k instead of paying off the mortgage early. That 401k money has a long time to compound, so it's likely to do you good in the long run. But the mortgage money might go down the tubes, if you get a new job, and you have to ...
by scone
Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I on track? Please take a look.
Replies: 4
Views: 678

Re: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out

I've been in this situation, not quite this close to closing, and it sucks. I question the "emotional issues" excuse-- my suspicious mind thinks the lender may have backed out, for whatever reason. In any case, take the earnest money, and don't take any bull from the opposing realtor abou...
by scone
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out
Replies: 60
Views: 5099

Re: Fidelity Investments Hacked

Time to relax. Fido carries insurance to reimburse you in case of cyberattack. It's no worse than bank robbery, if you think about it, and at least you're not getting shot at. And in any case, the financial industry is probably more of a danger to capitalism than hackers-- look what happened in 2008...
by scone
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Investments Hacked
Replies: 21
Views: 2538

Re: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out

I've been in this situation, not quite this close to closing, and it sucks. I question the "emotional issues" excuse-- my suspicious mind thinks the lender may have backed out, for whatever reason. In any case, take the earnest money, and don't take any bull from the opposing realtor about...
by scone
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out
Replies: 60
Views: 5099

Re: Fidelity Investments Hacked

WSJ article title: "J.P. Morgan Hackers Also Stole Fidelity Data, Investigators Think"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/state-at ... 1412879567
by scone
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Investments Hacked
Replies: 21
Views: 2538

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Munir wrote:I love all those folks who don't care about the market moves (yawn, snooze, etc..) but keep posting again and again on how much they don't care :happy .


Dude. For some of us, Bogleheads is a substitute for a social life. We'll comment on anything. :D
by scone
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Should we diversify our bond holdings?

There's nothing wrong with Toal Bond, but at a higher equity level I would want a big slug of intermediate Treasuries. It really helps in a market panic. I would also keep 3 months of expenses in a Treasury money market, and the rest in a breakable CD, to get more interest.
by scone
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we diversify our bond holdings?
Replies: 13
Views: 995

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

I'm not sure the risk of total collapse of the international economic system can be "priced in." At bottom, there's some sort of axiomatic faith that capitalism will continue. That faith was tested in 2008, and you got paid to take the risk. But as Larry says, alternative scenarios might h...
by scone
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 3698

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Just a few months ago, people were complaining the market was boring. Heh. :D
by scone
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Buying more when markets are down

I don't understand these type of threads? Where do folks get the extra dollars to buy new shares when the market is down? If we are talking about a few dollars sitting on the sidelines not sure if it makes a difference. If it is 6 digits then I would say there would be a huge cash drag sitting on t...
by scone
Wed Oct 01, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying more when markets are down
Replies: 61
Views: 5165

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I had a contribution to spend today, so bought more IEIS, which has been down lately. This is the first year in the last several where I have had to rebalance on the upside, and then on the downside. I guess things are returning to normal. :)
by scone
Wed Oct 01, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157443

Re: Hard Money Lending, flipping houses 12% return Lets hear

IMO, if you were suited to this sort of business, you would have done the background checks, credit checks, and other due diligence already. After all that, you would not need to ask the opinion of random internet posters-- you would know whether the deal was legit. There are a million ways to screw...
by scone
Wed Oct 01, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hard Money Lending, flipping houses 12% return Lets hear it
Replies: 56
Views: 3098

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

This might not be about finances, really, since you are doing pretty well, looking at it objectively. You might be clinically depressed. The tell is a lack of close friends. Internet "correspondence" is great, but you need human contact. You also need to have meaning in your life, either t...
by scone
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 130
Views: 14067

Re: Fidelity BrokerageLink 401K question

I use BrokerageLink, and can buy just about anything other than "adviser only" funds. So that includes mutual funds, ETFs, bonds, and CDs. Vanguard has quite a few low minimum funds, but you could start out with ETFs and switch when you hit the minimum, if you like. Schwab also has some lo...
by scone
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity BrokerageLink 401K question
Replies: 6
Views: 406

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I'm betting 2.5% is pretty bombproof. I'd rather save more than risk more.
by scone
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4020

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

BTW if people in high stress financial jobs and fund management could be fired for yelling at people or throwing their toys out of the pram, half the fund managers and senior execs on Wall Street would be out of a job. Some of the hedge fund managers are legendary for their tantrums. I had a girlfr...
by scone
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10078

Re: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell

I sold out of Total Return some time ago, partly because of manager risk, but at the time I was thinking retirement or (God forbid) Bill's demise. I never could have predicted this quarrel in a million years. So now I'm in Treasuries-- probably won't make as much money, but no issues with the rock s...
by scone
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell
Replies: 28
Views: 2383

Re: Going forward

Total ripoff, no question about it. You can buy advice by the hour, and reduce your expenses massively. That means you make a lot more money. This is especially important if equity returns are somewhat muted going forward. If you make 5%, your taxes are 1%, and your expenses are 1%, that leaves 3% f...
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going forward
Replies: 7
Views: 839

Re: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all

I think everybody should go through this. In a way, living through the recent big crash was the best way for me to begin as a seriuos investor. You don't know your real risk tolerance until you see massive amounts of money disappear in a microsecond.
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's pretty freaky watching your stocks go up & down all day
Replies: 60
Views: 5741

Re: Simplifying ETF holdings for serious buy-and-accumulate

Wow. Look, I've got 10 stock slices, so I'm not telling you to boil this down to a 3 fund portfolio, but you must see this is simply absurd. All you really need is reasonable coverage of large cap, small cap, domestic and international. Throw in some emerging market and REITs, and you're done. IIWY,...
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplifying ETF holdings for serious buy-and-accumulate
Replies: 19
Views: 2090

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Stocks don't know how long you have owned them. If they are risky at time point x, then why can't they be risky at time point x plus whatever? In fact, if stocks became somehow less risky, that is, if the equity risk premium diminished permanently, their attractiveness as investments would also dimi...
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2715

Re: Why don't you do Financial Planning?

A lot of people who post here are financial planners, bloggers, CPAs, retirement researchers, professional traders, etc. I suspect a few might even be active managers, posting anonymously. :D
by scone
Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why don't you do Financial Planning?
Replies: 41
Views: 3337

Re: What next?

Two years is a long time in real estate, so IIWY I wouldn't be concerned about renting the house until just before you want to buy. However, reading up on the business of renting property might be helpful. As for the money, if you are certain you will need it in a couple of years, for any reason, yo...
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What next?
Replies: 4
Views: 453

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

This paper is my favorite on the topic. John Norstad used to post here a bit.

http://www.norstad.org/finance/risk-and-time.html
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2715

Re: Adding Momentum and Quality factor exposure

I picked QICLX, but only after I figured my weighted average expense ratio. My biggest funds are very cheap, so a splurge on one or two more expensive ones didn't hurt. So YMMV depending on what's available to you.
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding Momentum and Quality factor exposure
Replies: 4
Views: 350

Re: Professional gambler in unique investment situation

In addition to "normal" investing, IIWY I'd have a lot of insurance, essentially forms of disability. In a sense, you are a "knowledge worker," entirely dependent on your mind for your support. If you lose your edge even just a little, you could be in trouble. Even relatively man...
by scone
Mon Sep 22, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Professional gambler in unique investment situation
Replies: 23
Views: 3799

Re: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?

I'd say my body is my riskiest "asset." Even if I take care of myself, I can get sick, have an accident, or be killed in any number of ways.
by scone
Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?
Replies: 81
Views: 7180

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

2008 was scary. Like end of the world apocalypse scary. Rising interest rates, not so much. Go over to Simba's backtester, and plug in 70% 5 year Treasuries with 30% stocks. Look at the rising rate periods. It's just... meh. That's what I'm expecting over the next few years. Lots of meh.
by scone
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3227

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

Take a look at the Hamilton Ventura, as worn by Elvis and the Men in Black:

https://www.google.com/search?q=hamilto ... CAcQ_AUoAg
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 262
Views: 13510

Re: Avoiding Credit Collectors

Many years ago, my uncle (I had never met him, long story) died. I arranged and paid for his funeral, and helped his girlfriend with the details. The next thing I knew, the hospital where he had spent his last hours tried to bill me for his care, even though I had not been there to sign him in, and ...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding Credit Collectors
Replies: 3
Views: 364

Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

The meme frequently heard on this board is: "if your stock allocation worries you, you're carrying too much stock." In your case, you sound quite anxious. If a lower stock allocation gets you to your goals, then why not consider it? There's no point in increasing your stress by trying to &...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 56
Views: 4872

Re: Tiny house movement.

The size of the house would not bother me, but this would: "The house will be on wheels so no permits nor codes apply." Personally, I would not want to put kids in a house that was not bolted to a solid foundation, if I could help it. If you google the phrase "trailer tornado" an...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [can my family live in a] Tiny house
Replies: 60
Views: 4221

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

FWIW, there was a "rebalancing into poverty" thread a while back, and Larry Swedroe said he only rebalances to the upside. IIRC he also said if you have "enough," you could do that-- you lose some diversification, but gain the "sleep at night" factor. For myself, I'm tr...
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14452

Re: Clean, quiet, safe and cheap. Is there such a travel pla

The back country of Australia can be fairly cheap, and it's pretty safe. Because of the heat, I would stay down south at this time of year-- possibly Tasmania. But if you want to be near the Great Barrier Reef, try Macleay island, near Brisbane.
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clean, quiet, safe and cheap. Is there such a travel place?
Replies: 75
Views: 5823

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

I've set my international allocation and I'm sticking to it. However, this might be a good time to start planning a European vacation. Or maybe drive up to Quebec-- it's just four hours from where I live in NH! :D
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1501

Re: Help with Vanguard Slice and Dice 80-20 Portfolio

Alternatively, you could put the money into the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio, with bonds split between intermediate and long Treasuries (because the port is dominated by stocks). This is the one I use, primarily for the diversification-- it covers the 9 Morningstar boxes rather well. Worth a look...
by scone
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Vanguard Slice and Dice 80-20 Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 764
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