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Re: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?

I'd say my body is my riskiest "asset." Even if I take care of myself, I can get sick, have an accident, or be killed in any number of ways.
by scone
Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?
Replies: 81
Views: 7044

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

2008 was scary. Like end of the world apocalypse scary. Rising interest rates, not so much. Go over to Simba's backtester, and plug in 70% 5 year Treasuries with 30% stocks. Look at the rising rate periods. It's just... meh. That's what I'm expecting over the next few years. Lots of meh.
by scone
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3070

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

Take a look at the Hamilton Ventura, as worn by Elvis and the Men in Black:

https://www.google.com/search?q=hamilto ... CAcQ_AUoAg
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 216
Views: 7684

Re: Avoiding Credit Collectors

Many years ago, my uncle (I had never met him, long story) died. I arranged and paid for his funeral, and helped his girlfriend with the details. The next thing I knew, the hospital where he had spent his last hours tried to bill me for his care, even though I had not been there to sign him in, and ...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding Credit Collectors
Replies: 3
Views: 347

Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

The meme frequently heard on this board is: "if your stock allocation worries you, you're carrying too much stock." In your case, you sound quite anxious. If a lower stock allocation gets you to your goals, then why not consider it? There's no point in increasing your stress by trying to &...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 22
Views: 1599

Re: Tiny house movement.

The size of the house would not bother me, but this would: "The house will be on wheels so no permits nor codes apply." Personally, I would not want to put kids in a house that was not bolted to a solid foundation, if I could help it. If you google the phrase "trailer tornado" an...
by scone
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [can my family live in a] Tiny house
Replies: 60
Views: 4002

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

FWIW, there was a "rebalancing into poverty" thread a while back, and Larry Swedroe said he only rebalances to the upside. IIRC he also said if you have "enough," you could do that-- you lose some diversification, but gain the "sleep at night" factor. For myself, I'm tr...
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 182
Views: 12200

Re: Clean, quiet, safe and cheap. Is there such a travel pla

The back country of Australia can be fairly cheap, and it's pretty safe. Because of the heat, I would stay down south at this time of year-- possibly Tasmania. But if you want to be near the Great Barrier Reef, try Macleay island, near Brisbane.
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clean, quiet, safe and cheap. Is there such a travel place?
Replies: 75
Views: 5721

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

I've set my international allocation and I'm sticking to it. However, this might be a good time to start planning a European vacation. Or maybe drive up to Quebec-- it's just four hours from where I live in NH! :D
by scone
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1377

Re: Help with Vanguard Slice and Dice 80-20 Portfolio

Alternatively, you could put the money into the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio, with bonds split between intermediate and long Treasuries (because the port is dominated by stocks). This is the one I use, primarily for the diversification-- it covers the 9 Morningstar boxes rather well. Worth a look...
by scone
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Vanguard Slice and Dice 80-20 Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 748

Re: HELOC Vent

Losing your documents is very concerning. That type of thing would make me sever all relations with the bank, and I'm sorry to say it's not that uncommon, in my experience. You could give them a bad review on yelp, if it makes you feel better, but I wouldn't pursue an age discrimination case. "...
by scone
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC Vent
Replies: 19
Views: 2024

Re: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?

Another Merriman-like portfolio here. I particularly wanted to focus on lowering the drawdowns compared to other types of portfolios, and the diversification helps with that goal.
by scone
Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 85
Views: 6546

Re: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts

As noted above, EDV could crash pretty hard in some circumstances. Personally, I use FLBAX for 5% of my total portfolio right now. That's basically to hedge against market panics. It's got about a 16 year duration, so it's less sensitive to interest rates than EDV, but it still has a real return. FL...
by scone
Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 998

Re: Programming and Database Classes

The best way to learn about database systems is to work on database systems. I started by fixing old legacy systems with lots of patches, spaghetti, and zero documentation. Or almost zero. I once found a comment that read, "I think I'm losing my mind, I'm getting addicted to cocaine to keep up ...
by scone
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Programming and Database Classes
Replies: 15
Views: 1074

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

There is a massive, massive lack of trust and communication here, and that's the real heart of the problem. The secretiveness of the husband, and his thinking that the wife can get along "at the poverty level" makes me think some sort of funny business is going on. One danger is that the h...
by scone
Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 17354

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor :oops: Wow. Jack Bogle has explained the double hit by following that strategy. First one sells out at the bottom to cash and then misses the rebound. What gets me is the inher...
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3517

Re: Kaiser vs Blue Shield

Just for the record, I had Kaiser as an HMO, using a capitation system. I believe this is the heart of the moral hazard problem, as there is a strong incentive to deny care and keep care dollars within the physician group. As I understand it, the physicians pocketed the money they did not spend on p...
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kaiser vs Blue Shield
Replies: 83
Views: 5537

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor :oops:
by scone
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3517

Re: Kaiser vs Blue Shield

I did not have a good experience with Kaiser. For years, I had severe symptoms that were consistently misdiagnosed, sometimes as one thing, sometimes as another. For a while they thought I had MS. What I actually had was a bad case of hypothyroidism, but Kaiser absolutely refused to put me on a tria...
by scone
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kaiser vs Blue Shield
Replies: 83
Views: 5537

Re: Quote from a mover: Please comment

If you are going to "hand deliver" some stuff, I would strongly recommend PODS. Now that's assuming you can park the PODS module in a space for some length of time. I've moved dozens of times, and for me, this is by far the least stressful method. Good luck.
by scone
Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quote from a mover: Please comment
Replies: 46
Views: 3859

Re: Convincing fears on investing for now?

I have no idea whether "the market" is frothy or not. So I invest all over the globe, in large caps and small caps, leaning a bit to value instead of growth. I like to think I'm getting the planetary average of valuations, and I feel that's the best I can do. And now that I've made my best...
by scone
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing fears on investing for now?
Replies: 33
Views: 3361

Re: Bond Question

Forget the Janus fund. If it were my money, I'd put at least 50% into the Total Bond fund, because the expense ratio is so cheap. OTOH, TIPS are Treasuries, and a higher credit quality is worth something, as is the inflation protection. So maybe 100% of current money in Total Bond, with 100% new con...
by scone
Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Question
Replies: 7
Views: 473

Re: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.

I like the research, and I like helping other people. But placing a trade makes me physically ill-- nausea, migraine, etc. So I keep my rebalancing efforts to once per year. Guess I'll never be a day trader. :wink:
by scone
Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 2377

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

Ah, yes, high tech NoCal. Been there, done that. Try Livermore. We liked it, and you can still find foreclosed houses there. Half a million buys a decent ranch. Save the difference, and send the kids to private school. Or save and move up to Intel in Oregon, or Bellevue. Or New Hampshire, like we di...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 105
Views: 11247

Re: Where do you buy clothes?

Talbots for sportswear and dresses, although the quality isn't what it was. Nordstrom for underthings, scarves, and tailored blazers. Macy's is hit or miss. I wait for the half yearly sales on J Crew and Ralph Lauren, which can often be 75% off or even more. Consignment stores for jewelry. I never g...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you buy clothes?
Replies: 105
Views: 9235

Re: Theater seating for basement projection TV

I've seen some leather theater seating recliners, with cup holders, in one of our local consignment shops. Massively discounted from new retail. Many people here are older, downsizing, and moving to Florida-- they don't want to move these huge beasts. So the deals are out there.
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Theater seating for basement projection TV
Replies: 5
Views: 856

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

I use IEIS. Too soon to tell if it's good... :happy
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 8
Views: 1029

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

I've had two motorcycles, and they were great for commuting and errands. As a woman with short legs, I had small cruisers, so I could sit with both feet firmly on the ground. You might or might not be able to find these older models (used, obviously): Yamaha RD 350, Suzuki GS 450 L. A newer one migh...
by scone
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 63
Views: 3762

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

M2 is getting so low FRED may have to redraw it soon. :shock:

Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

Image
by scone
Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2683

Re: I...I don't even know where to begin.

Hi there! :D You don't have to do anything you're not comfortable with, there's really no pressure at all. In order to cut down the universe of choices, IIWY I'd ask myself various questions, such as: What am I saving/investing for? Is this money taxable, or in a tax advantaged account like a 401k? ...
by scone
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I...I don't even know where to begin.
Replies: 19
Views: 3067

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

scone Doesn't mean it's "wrong" No one right minimize tail allocation. it's just that IMO it's less diversified than could be and I would not recommend it--why leave out rest of developed world small value which is accessible. And I would certainly use EMV (or EMS) not EM, get that premiu...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1745

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Hi, I just had a convo with Larry Swedroe on another thread, he says he didn't recommend the "half EM, half SCV" Minimize Fat Tails portfolio that's in the spreadsheet. This is what he says: Don't know where that allocation came from. But to me the choice of bonds is personal. Nominals wou...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 608
Views: 374588

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Don't know where that allocation came from. But to me the choice of bonds is personal. Nominals would use Intermediate, like 5- year Treasury (CDs better usually) and TIPS can also be used, and 50-50 tips and nominals also fine But definitely never showed 50% EM and 50% US SV. Suggest something lik...
by scone
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1745

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Scone Larry Portfolio for equity portion would be 50% US SV, 37.5% ISV and 12.5% EMV Larry Interesting. FWIW the Portfolio Visualizer, which uses the Simba data IIRC, says your Minimize Fat Tails portfolio is 15% EM, 15% SCV, 35% 2 year T bills, and 35% Tips. So is the Minimize different from the L...
by scone
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1745

Re: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?

Some random thoughts and suggestions. 20% gold will really drag down returns-- a little seems to go a long way. IIRC the Larry portfolio is 15% emerging market, 15% SCV. The combination is the thing-- correlations. Try running Trev H's Simplified Buy and Hold with 4 equal slices, 28% stock allocatio...
by scone
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 30% SCV/ 70% Bonds really a good idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1745

Re: Advice: Remodel of kitchen, bath, and basement?

Unless you have some really strange building conditions, you probably don't need an architect. And in your price bracket, you probably can't afford the guys who practice around NYC. Going with a design/build is an option, but it would be better to get competitive bids. IIWY I'd get an independent ki...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice: Remodel of kitchen, bath, and basement?
Replies: 30
Views: 1470

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

Let's say you are holding a 50% stock, 50% bond portfolio. The stock portion is 50% domestic, 50% international. The bond portion is in the AGG. So your total international exposure isn't that high. If your stock allocation is less than 50%, half in international, and your bonds are Treasuries, your...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12536

Re: Buying land and building house

There are so many books on residential construction, I couldn't list them all. Two of my faves are Make Your House Do the Housework and Build It Right! There's an architect, Ross Chapin, who sells quite decent small house plans. But what you really need is an honest contractor willing to take on a v...
by scone
Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying land and building house
Replies: 22
Views: 2559

Re: HUFF POST: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Pub

Weren't the leading Bogleheads going to start some sort of financial literacy project? IIRC I heard about it at a previous conference.
by scone
Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huff Post: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Public?
Replies: 52
Views: 4678

Re: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student

Thanks any idea of any super companies that let you invest with vanguard because its to complected and expensive to set up a self managed super fund? i found sunsuper who have a range of index options available and seem to be fairly low cost by australian standards. I'm not sure about this, I'm a Y...
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student
Replies: 9
Views: 503

Re: global diversification works in long term

I'm at 50% international, 50% domestic in my equity allocation, but almost all American in my bonds. Thus my Fido widget says I'm weighted 91% to American overall. Even 100% international stock would still give me a massive "home country bias."
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global diversification works in long term
Replies: 21
Views: 1947

Re: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student

My husband had an AMP deal similar to this, which his father arranged for him when he was at Uni. it's a long time ago now, but IIRC the numbers made it a very poor choice, and it was difficult to drop it. AMP threw in a lot of blocks-- they were making money, so they didn't want to let us out. It t...
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian Superannuation for Uni Student
Replies: 9
Views: 503

Re: Need Perspective and Advise

I think this guy is full of it. A 40% stock, 60% bond indexed portfolio is an absolute classic that will serve you well. A tiny basket of stocks is a lot less diverse than the allocation you have-- it makes no sense. This guy is trying to frighten you into giving him money. One percent per year, com...
by scone
Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Perspective and Advise
Replies: 21
Views: 1823

Re: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?

As a taxpayer, I'm proud to help back your mortgage. As far as the market goes, you need to look at your rental costs versus your total costs of ownership. That's a major factor in the rent versus buy decision. And the problem of the market tanking after you buy is part of your risk, obviously, but ...
by scone
Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?
Replies: 64
Views: 3276

Re: Selling House - Do We Need a Listing Broker?

I agree, the current real estate business model should be killed stone dead. I hired a full service broker to sell my home, and 11 days after the house hits the MLS, with poor description and photos I might add, I still have no sign on the property. And now the guy is not returning my calls or email...
by scone
Mon Jul 28, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling House - Do We Need a Listing Broker?
Replies: 61
Views: 2916

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

Some of the asset classes go back before the '70's, and some do not. The modern form of the S & P 500 dates to 1957. TIPs date from 1997. So the backtesters we have are working with a relatively small dataset. Don't try to use the backtester to derive exact answers, it's an educational tool. It ...
by scone
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2636

Re: How Should I Manage My 401k?

1. There's no way to know in advance which assets are going to make the most money going forward. If I knew that, I'd be posting from my own private island. 2. No. You already have all the tools you need. 3. No, you have some good, cheap funds here. You need a coherent structure for the portfolio as...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Should I Manage My 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 738

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

Why don't you download the Simba spreadsheet on this site, google above, and put this spreadsheet in there? If you spend a few hundred hours playing with that and reading the books, you won't need to ask anyone else. You will have developed your own unique portfolio tailored to your needs. You can a...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2636

Re: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?

What would your suggested asset allocation be if I wanted to take on a similar risk to my current allocation but with the tilts I've decided on? It would be a really lousy idea for me to give you some random AA off the top of my head. I don't know you. In any case, the work that goes into creating ...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor blending SUBH and Minimized Fat Tails?
Replies: 40
Views: 2636

Re: Buying a Home - Town permit records don't match disclosu

The amount and type of permitting required depends on the town, and the nature of the work done. I just finished two remodels, and since I didn't change any electrical or plumbing, there were no permits. For example, my town doesn't care if you remove all the kitchen cabinets and replace them with n...
by scone
Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home - Town permit records don't match disclosures
Replies: 57
Views: 3600
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