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Re: Nitpicking my portfolio

I would be more worried about country risk. IIRC, Dr. Bernstein calls this "confiscation" risk.
by scone
Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Nitpicking my portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 688

Re: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?

Be warned, when Reits crash, it's epic. Look at the 2008-2009 period. A little goes a long way.
by scone
Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 4427

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

I'm really not trying to dogpile here, but the fact is, your debt doesn't care if it was acquired in a good cause, or through no fault of your own. It's there just the same. What's bugging me is the convoluted thinking about noney, which IMO is getting you in trouble. For example, you buy a home, pr...
by scone
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7523

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you are a "little short" to the point where you have racked up 22k of debt, you have a spending problem. Paying off the credit card won't help you unless you get your spending below your income, because you are likely to simply rack up more debt again. Y...
by scone
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7523

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

FWIW, my Treasuries are absolutely on fire right now. I wasn't expecting this at all, but I'll take it. :mrgreen:
by scone
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 257
Views: 29812

Re: Parents spending on grandkids

How about asking them to buy her savings bonds, or else put the money in a college fund? You can spin that as, "we want her to get a head start in life" or some such line.
by scone
Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents spending on grandkids
Replies: 23
Views: 1870

Re: investing in community solar panels

What happens if you sell your house? Can the shares convey to the new owner?
by scone
Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in community solar panels
Replies: 12
Views: 760

Re: How does a Boglehead handle stock options?

My husband's company tends to use stock options in lieu of salary increases, and to keep the stock price up. IMO. So to me it feels almost as if we are giving them a no-interest loan. I also don't like taking on single company risk as well as employment risk-- it concentrates rather than diversifies...
by scone
Tue Jan 13, 2015 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does a Boglehead handle stock options?
Replies: 27
Views: 1833

Re: Do you use the 9 style-box for AA?

The style box was in the back of my mind when I set up my "slice and dice" allocation, since I was looking for a lot of diversification. Fidelity uses a similar widget in its display, so I can see how the money is distributed. I don't use it for any type of market timing or reallocation. I...
by scone
Tue Jan 13, 2015 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use the 9 style-box for AA?
Replies: 24
Views: 1864

Re: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit

Deflation is "good" if the price of your new iPad falls, even though it has more and better features. Deflation is "bad" if people are losing their McJobs because other people are losing their McJobs, because other people are losing their McJobs. If deflation gets out of control,...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit?
Replies: 87
Views: 6139

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Q.E.D. Look, you aren't going to commit suicide at the first sign of creaking joints. Ain't gonna happen. The reality is, if you don't go out quick, you will go out slow. At that point, you can be reasonably comfortable, or you can be eating cat food under a bridge. If you think the latter scenario...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10624

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I'm not making any predictions about the future of the markets. But I am thinking about costs in the final ten years or so of life, for myself and my husband. Since we have no family who will be in a position to help us, we will have to pay for every little thing, right up through assisted living a...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10624

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I'm not making any predictions about the future of the markets. But I am thinking about costs in the final ten years or so of life, for myself and my husband. Since we have no family who will be in a position to help us, we will have to pay for every little thing, right up through assisted living an...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10624

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

This topic always seems to go off into the weeds, arguing the mechanics of withdrawl. But the problem really revolves around two different and incompatible value systems. Some people value having more money to spend now, and equate more money with more enjoyment of life. Other people would rather ha...
by scone
Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10624

Re: "Vanguard Group execs say deflation a real risk..."

Doug Short ran an article discussing deflation last January, and in it there is a chart titled "Monthly Inflation: 1872 to Present." The most interesting part, to me, is just how very common deflation was before about 1950. It's as if we have had a respite from it in the relatively prosper...
by scone
Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Group execs say deflation a real risk..."
Replies: 61
Views: 6215

Re: “Safe” investment choices for Fidelity Roth IRA

Welcome! IIWY, and I wanted to use my Roth as a temporary emergency fund, I would not use CDs, it just seems more complicated than it's worth. Why not use simple liquid assets? The most liquid thing on this planet has to be short term Treasuries, and Fido has a fund for that: FSBAX. The minimum to i...
by scone
Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Safe” investment choices for Fidelity Roth IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 633

Re: Should We Stay Or Should We Go?

Here's another alternative. When the tenant on the old house moves out, move in there with minimum stuff, and fix up the new house to make it closer to what you want. Then move back into the improved house, and either rent or sell the other one. You can always remodel a house, but not the neighborho...
by scone
Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should We Stay Or Should We Go?
Replies: 33
Views: 4095

Re: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?

You do get some diversification with intermediate TIPs, as they don't track nominal Treasuries perfectly. Sometimes TIPs are up, sometimes nominals. But you also seem to pay an "insurance premium" for them relative to nominals. (I have to wonder what's going to happen with that if we get a...
by scone
Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 3416

Re: Anyone else reluctant to put new money in bonds right no

Here's another thing. Even if the Fed raises rates at the short end, there is no guarantee that the intermediate and long end will take a huge hit. The two ends of the curve can behave quite differently. Just look at what has been happening in Treasuries lately. The short end has risen a bit, as the...
by scone
Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else reluctant to put new money in bonds right now?
Replies: 27
Views: 3421

Re: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bond

Don't sell if you can help it. Instead, calculate the duration of the entire bond portfolio. If it's too far beyond intermediate, then add more money to the short end, if you can. At any rate, if all new money is going to the short term fund, your overall duration should be falling anyway, and that...
by scone
Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 4822

Re: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bond

Don't sell if you can help it. Instead, calculate the duration of the entire bond portfolio. If it's too far beyond intermediate, then add more money to the short end, if you can. At any rate, if all new money is going to the short term fund, your overall duration should be falling anyway, and that ...
by scone
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 4822

Re: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund

Wow. The ER for the ETF is .12%. I'll be watching this one, thanks!
by scone
Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5009

Re: Hussman finally admits the obvious

Hussman's funds have been doing rather poorly for many years. Larry Swedroe has some details:

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... nopaging=1
by scone
Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman finally admits the obvious
Replies: 16
Views: 2410

Re: Real Value of Nest Egg

I can't predict what the stock market will do, but I have a pretty good idea what my taxes will be when we retire, so I would focus on that to determine if 1 million was enough. Like it or not, Uncle Sam owns part of my 401k. :mrgreen:
by scone
Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Value of Nest Egg
Replies: 24
Views: 1928

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Grexit will happen, and the investing world won't come to an end.
Gundlach guesses right, longer interest rates fall, and the housing market goes wild.
Detroit shows signs of life as car sales hit a record.
by scone
Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 76
Views: 7430

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

Thank you for your response, Mr. Merriman, that was very gracious. FWIW I use the Ultimate portfolio, and am quite pleased with it. Happy New Year!
by scone
Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 7325

Re: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help

The market is well aware of all the international problems, that's why these stocks are cheap. Whereas, the American market is pretty pricey, IMO. If you are holding for the long run, you might want cheap overall, but this is the next best thing. As Larry Swedroe says, they don't blow the whistle wh...
by scone
Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help plz
Replies: 29
Views: 2362

Re: How Much Do You Sacrifice?

Hi, I'm glad you like the "pay yourself first" idea. It really is an easy method, and should increase your savings rate naturally as your salary goes up. So don't worry about that. You're doing fine. The main issue you are having is money anxiety, not a budget problem. We've all been there...
by scone
Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Do You Sacrifice?
Replies: 82
Views: 6588

Re: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help

Glad you are making progress! IIWY I'd use the Vanguard stock funds: Vanguard Small Cap Index Vanguard Total International Stock Index Vanguard Total Stock Market Index I like a tilt, so I'd split the money evenly in these three funds, and put the taxable money in a CD ladder, or maybe munis, just t...
by scone
Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help plz
Replies: 29
Views: 2362

Re: Do any other men here regulalry use skin care products?

I've started my DH using DMAE cream, as he has skin problems, and it has made a huge difference. He was going on about it not being manly, so I told him this stuff was originally developed as a medical treatment, and smells medicinal, not girly. It's all rather silly, skin is skin. And if you told h...
by scone
Mon Dec 29, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do any other men here regulalry use skin care products?
Replies: 45
Views: 3502

Re: How Much Do You Sacrifice?

We don't do things this way. We direct a portion of each paycheck to savings right off the top, and bank all bonuses. Then we live on the rest. This method is very simple, and fair, IMO. I think if I had to budget every little thing, and nit-picking every little expense, it would drive me crazy.
by scone
Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Do You Sacrifice?
Replies: 82
Views: 6588

Re: Do I Pay Cash for my home?

scone - you make some good points. But if the house value crashes, their net worth 'is a lot less' whether they pay cash or get a mortgage. This isn't the way it's normally calculated, it's certainly not standard economics, but to me, the value of a house is "imaginary" until it is sold. ...
by scone
Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I Pay Cash for my home?
Replies: 49
Views: 3959

Re: Buy rental property as I cannot afford house where I liv

Frankly, you don't have enough money to fool around with real estate. You can get ahead of the situation only by saving a lot more money, and eventually getting out of the Bay Area. That might mean finding some roommates, or commuting in from a cheaper area, like the Valley. You might even be able t...
by scone
Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy rental property as I cannot afford house where I live
Replies: 7
Views: 1335

Re: Do I Pay Cash for my home?

Since everyone seems to be in the "pay cash" camp, I'm going to play Devil's advocate and discuss the down side risk. Let's say you pay $250,000 cash, or more, for the house. Now you have a large chunk of your net worth in a highly illiquid asset. If you keep all your other assets in the s...
by scone
Mon Dec 22, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I Pay Cash for my home?
Replies: 49
Views: 3959

Re: Green day

It was a quadruple witching day, so possibly some weirdness there.
by scone
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Green day
Replies: 8
Views: 1006

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

NASDAQ certainly has been cray-cray the last couple of years. Coming back close to where it was just before the tech wreck. I'm getting flashbacks. :shock:
by scone
Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221109

Re: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk

Since I'm still accumulating, and don't need income from my bonds, my only concern is how my bonds mix with stocks, particularly in a crisis. For that purpose, Treasuries are best. After I retire, then the income on bonds becomes more important, but so do taxes, so I will have an allocation to muni ...
by scone
Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 981

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I think other people in a hospital are more interesting than other people in a nursing home. One problem with nursing homes is that there are no men there. Victoria Some would not consider that a problem. You can't be serious {OK, I am not being serious, but every joke has a bit of a joke...} But I...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

{laughing}You got a point. Fortunately, as someone said about physics, electrons don't think. That's not everyone's belief, actually, but neither here nor there. As I understand it, doctors administer to others treatments that they would not accept themselves, such as the above mentioned resuscitat...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

It's wrong in the sense that medical professionals are trained to think about their patients as problems to be solved, and not as humans with free will. Unlike technicians and engineers, who are so touchy-feely! Sorry, could not resist. Actually I think doctors are human like the rest of us, and fo...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Quite honestly, how many of you know folks who have made it to 85 and are humming along just fine - as opposed to the many of your acquaintances, friends and family who didn't make it or have and are on thin ice? Every single one of my relatives made it to their eighties, except for my brother who ...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I am getting your point, and in some ways my thinking is similar to yours. However, I want to hope that there are ways to deal with this conundrum. Perhaps, the objections to the undesired lifesupport will become so prevalent that the best practices of the medical establishment will change. Perhaps...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

You are right. In Being Mortal , Atul Gawande describes the death of his father. The fact that both he and his father were physicians did not help when the ambulance has arrived. In the retrospect, they should not have called the ambulance. Victoria If the son fails to call the ambulance, he could ...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Thank you for a realistic story. It covers many common cases, but as an individual, I have a right to refuse certain medications and treatment options. I can evaluate the advantages and side effects of the prescription drugs and, for example, decide that my mental acuity and mobility are more impor...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

In a lecture about gerontological issues, a researcher has noted that for many elderly people the final decline begins with a bad fall or other bad accident. If you work on your balance and (are lucky to) avoid accidents, the end may in fact be fairly swift. In addition to aiming for compressed mor...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

So to me, the problem is not the odds of dying at any particular age, but the odds of having a long drawn out decline and lingering death. What are the odds of that? Pretty high, I'd say. I think that's what most of us are afraid of, but I don't think there's any way to insure against that financia...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I just don't think of the problem this way. To me, it's not so much how long I will live, it's all about the quality of care I can pay for at the end of life, for my husband as well as myself. And I'm assuming medical science continues to advance, such that I can be kept alive, one way or another, f...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11597

Re: Is it worth purchasing Ibonds on the verge retirement?

There has been a recent change in the tax rules for iBonds, I'll quote the wiki here if I may: "As of 2013, for all other filing statuses, your interest exclusion is phased out if your modified AGI is between $72,850 and $87,850 (filing single) or between $109,250 and $139,250 (married filing j...
by scone
Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it worth purchasing Ibonds on the verge retirement?
Replies: 25
Views: 2545

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

If you don't hold any long bonds, you are making an active decision to deviate from the market. And if you hate long bonds, then perforce you hate Total Bond, because it's like the old commercial, "it's in there!"* Remember that even if interest rates rise, it's not guaranteed that the ent...
by scone
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3419

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

...In the end, it's all speculation. The stock market goes down 1% one day, then up 1% the next day. Oil goes up 5% in a day, then down 5% in a day. Why? As a very wise man once said, "Wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey". I'm glad I'm not the only person who quotes the Doctor as a legit response ...
by scone
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2659
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