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Re: German vs US 10 year yields - help me understand?

The trade you're talking about might be happening with the long bond. Look at TLT lately, it's been hotter than Texas tarmac in August. I'm wondering what this will do to mortgage interest rates this spring, as I have a house to sell. Kind of hoping for a feeding frenzy. :D
by scone
Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German vs US 10 year yields - help me understand?
Replies: 3
Views: 238

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

I get that there is a policy in place, but if there is "contention" about the interpretation of that policy, as the OP suggests, then I will bow out, until the fighting is over and the all-clear is blown. I mean, check this out: "The content of the notice has become a point of content...
by scone
Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 73
Views: 2395

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

So here's a shorter, simpler, crisper version: "Asset allocation is one of the more important decisions investors make. Selection of individual securities is less significant than the overall allocation to stocks, bonds, and cash." Ok, but from the second part of LadyGeek's original query...
by scone
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 73
Views: 2395

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

I'm not sure the Sharpe reference will resonate much with newbies, he's not that famous. I think you could make the point better with a more homely quote from common sayings and proverbs, something like "don't put all your eggs in one basket." I do think the language needs to be cleaned up...
by scone
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 73
Views: 2395

Re: The challenges of staying the course...

Take a look at your expense ratios, particularly on the bond side. Paying much over 0% for a short term bond fund, given the low yields today, is self defeating. You are losing money, especially after inflation. Also, short term bonds generally do not help when the stock market tanks-- for that you ...
by scone
Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The challenges of staying the course...
Replies: 27
Views: 1742

Re: New to the forum, help with Portfolio Review

IIWY, I'd take the 60k you were going to put in taxable this year, and use it to wipe out your 6.8% student debt, plus 10k of the 4.5% debt. I would keep going in the following years, paying it all off, and then worrying about taxable investing. A risk free return like that is pretty hard to find th...
by scone
Thu Jan 29, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to the forum, help with Portfolio Review
Replies: 3
Views: 296

Re: "Retiring in a Low-Return Environment"

The really surprising result is, a higher stock allocation doesn't seem to help. I didn't see it in the paper but you need to figure out what the expected return of stocks is that they use For a CAPE10 of 25+ a lot people using the correlation predict a real return in the 2-3% range (call it 5% nom...
by scone
Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retiring in a Low-Return Environment"
Replies: 44
Views: 4561

Re: Assisted Living Facilities... Weird 'Atmosphere...'

Three explanations spring to mind: deafness, depression, and introversion. The first two might be changed, but a room dominated by introverts is likely to remain pretty quiet--we aren't generally loud party animals. I can easily see this happening in New England, where people are often quite reserve...
by scone
Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Assisted Living Facilities... Weird 'Atmosphere...'
Replies: 31
Views: 3154

Re: "Retiring in a Low-Return Environment"

The really surprising result is, a higher stock allocation doesn't seem to help.
by scone
Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retiring in a Low-Return Environment"
Replies: 44
Views: 4561

Re: Women's Face Moisturizer/Lotion

Derma E DMAE Alpha Lipoic C-Ester Creme. I use huge amounts of this stuff. Unlike a lot of other products, I'm not allergic to it, and it has no perfume I can detect. It does have a ton of anti-oxidants that really help my skin, which is very dry and fragile due to hypothyroidism. The ingredients ar...
by scone
Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Women's Face Moisturizer/Lotion
Replies: 51
Views: 3426

Re: 60/40 returns with 0 downside: the Ultimate Larry Portfo

I've found that almost any portfolio with 70% - 80% 5 year Treasuries gives you a very low drawdown. The investing world has a "core belief" that Treasuries will save your bacon in a crash. This is a point Larry makes frequently. BTW, if you don't like gold, you can do about 15% in short T...
by scone
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60/40 returns with 0 downside: the Ultimate Larry Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 3032

Re: Nitpicking my portfolio

I would be more worried about country risk. IIRC, Dr. Bernstein calls this "confiscation" risk.
by scone
Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Nitpicking my portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 696

Re: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?

Be warned, when Reits crash, it's epic. Look at the 2008-2009 period. A little goes a long way.
by scone
Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 4466

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

I'm really not trying to dogpile here, but the fact is, your debt doesn't care if it was acquired in a good cause, or through no fault of your own. It's there just the same. What's bugging me is the convoluted thinking about noney, which IMO is getting you in trouble. For example, you buy a home, pr...
by scone
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7556

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you are a "little short" to the point where you have racked up 22k of debt, you have a spending problem. Paying off the credit card won't help you unless you get your spending below your income, because you are likely to simply rack up more debt again. Y...
by scone
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7556

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

FWIW, my Treasuries are absolutely on fire right now. I wasn't expecting this at all, but I'll take it. :mrgreen:
by scone
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 272
Views: 31243

Re: Parents spending on grandkids

How about asking them to buy her savings bonds, or else put the money in a college fund? You can spin that as, "we want her to get a head start in life" or some such line.
by scone
Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents spending on grandkids
Replies: 23
Views: 1874

Re: investing in community solar panels

What happens if you sell your house? Can the shares convey to the new owner?
by scone
Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in community solar panels
Replies: 12
Views: 762

Re: How does a Boglehead handle stock options?

My husband's company tends to use stock options in lieu of salary increases, and to keep the stock price up. IMO. So to me it feels almost as if we are giving them a no-interest loan. I also don't like taking on single company risk as well as employment risk-- it concentrates rather than diversifies...
by scone
Tue Jan 13, 2015 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does a Boglehead handle stock options?
Replies: 27
Views: 1840

Re: Do you use the 9 style-box for AA?

The style box was in the back of my mind when I set up my "slice and dice" allocation, since I was looking for a lot of diversification. Fidelity uses a similar widget in its display, so I can see how the money is distributed. I don't use it for any type of market timing or reallocation. I...
by scone
Tue Jan 13, 2015 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use the 9 style-box for AA?
Replies: 24
Views: 1874

Re: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit

Deflation is "good" if the price of your new iPad falls, even though it has more and better features. Deflation is "bad" if people are losing their McJobs because other people are losing their McJobs, because other people are losing their McJobs. If deflation gets out of control,...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit?
Replies: 87
Views: 6169

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Q.E.D. Look, you aren't going to commit suicide at the first sign of creaking joints. Ain't gonna happen. The reality is, if you don't go out quick, you will go out slow. At that point, you can be reasonably comfortable, or you can be eating cat food under a bridge. If you think the latter scenario...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I'm not making any predictions about the future of the markets. But I am thinking about costs in the final ten years or so of life, for myself and my husband. Since we have no family who will be in a position to help us, we will have to pay for every little thing, right up through assisted living a...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I'm not making any predictions about the future of the markets. But I am thinking about costs in the final ten years or so of life, for myself and my husband. Since we have no family who will be in a position to help us, we will have to pay for every little thing, right up through assisted living an...
by scone
Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

This topic always seems to go off into the weeds, arguing the mechanics of withdrawl. But the problem really revolves around two different and incompatible value systems. Some people value having more money to spend now, and equate more money with more enjoyment of life. Other people would rather ha...
by scone
Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: "Vanguard Group execs say deflation a real risk..."

Doug Short ran an article discussing deflation last January, and in it there is a chart titled "Monthly Inflation: 1872 to Present." The most interesting part, to me, is just how very common deflation was before about 1950. It's as if we have had a respite from it in the relatively prosper...
by scone
Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Group execs say deflation a real risk..."
Replies: 61
Views: 6238

Re: “Safe” investment choices for Fidelity Roth IRA

Welcome! IIWY, and I wanted to use my Roth as a temporary emergency fund, I would not use CDs, it just seems more complicated than it's worth. Why not use simple liquid assets? The most liquid thing on this planet has to be short term Treasuries, and Fido has a fund for that: FSBAX. The minimum to i...
by scone
Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Safe” investment choices for Fidelity Roth IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 637

Re: Should We Stay Or Should We Go?

Here's another alternative. When the tenant on the old house moves out, move in there with minimum stuff, and fix up the new house to make it closer to what you want. Then move back into the improved house, and either rent or sell the other one. You can always remodel a house, but not the neighborho...
by scone
Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should We Stay Or Should We Go?
Replies: 33
Views: 4098

Re: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?

You do get some diversification with intermediate TIPs, as they don't track nominal Treasuries perfectly. Sometimes TIPs are up, sometimes nominals. But you also seem to pay an "insurance premium" for them relative to nominals. (I have to wonder what's going to happen with that if we get a...
by scone
Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 3423

Re: Anyone else reluctant to put new money in bonds right no

Here's another thing. Even if the Fed raises rates at the short end, there is no guarantee that the intermediate and long end will take a huge hit. The two ends of the curve can behave quite differently. Just look at what has been happening in Treasuries lately. The short end has risen a bit, as the...
by scone
Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else reluctant to put new money in bonds right now?
Replies: 27
Views: 3429

Re: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bond

Don't sell if you can help it. Instead, calculate the duration of the entire bond portfolio. If it's too far beyond intermediate, then add more money to the short end, if you can. At any rate, if all new money is going to the short term fund, your overall duration should be falling anyway, and that...
by scone
Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 4843

Re: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bond

Don't sell if you can help it. Instead, calculate the duration of the entire bond portfolio. If it's too far beyond intermediate, then add more money to the short end, if you can. At any rate, if all new money is going to the short term fund, your overall duration should be falling anyway, and that ...
by scone
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Long term bonds with large gain for short term bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 4843

Re: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund

Wow. The ER for the ETF is .12%. I'll be watching this one, thanks!
by scone
Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5047

Re: Hussman finally admits the obvious

Hussman's funds have been doing rather poorly for many years. Larry Swedroe has some details:

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... nopaging=1
by scone
Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman finally admits the obvious
Replies: 16
Views: 2413

Re: Real Value of Nest Egg

I can't predict what the stock market will do, but I have a pretty good idea what my taxes will be when we retire, so I would focus on that to determine if 1 million was enough. Like it or not, Uncle Sam owns part of my 401k. :mrgreen:
by scone
Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Value of Nest Egg
Replies: 24
Views: 1931

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Grexit will happen, and the investing world won't come to an end.
Gundlach guesses right, longer interest rates fall, and the housing market goes wild.
Detroit shows signs of life as car sales hit a record.
by scone
Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 82
Views: 7915

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

Thank you for your response, Mr. Merriman, that was very gracious. FWIW I use the Ultimate portfolio, and am quite pleased with it. Happy New Year!
by scone
Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 7575

Re: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help

The market is well aware of all the international problems, that's why these stocks are cheap. Whereas, the American market is pretty pricey, IMO. If you are holding for the long run, you might want cheap overall, but this is the next best thing. As Larry Swedroe says, they don't blow the whistle wh...
by scone
Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help plz
Replies: 29
Views: 2364

Re: How Much Do You Sacrifice?

Hi, I'm glad you like the "pay yourself first" idea. It really is an easy method, and should increase your savings rate naturally as your salary goes up. So don't worry about that. You're doing fine. The main issue you are having is money anxiety, not a budget problem. We've all been there...
by scone
Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Do You Sacrifice?
Replies: 82
Views: 6601

Re: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help

Glad you are making progress! IIWY I'd use the Vanguard stock funds: Vanguard Small Cap Index Vanguard Total International Stock Index Vanguard Total Stock Market Index I like a tilt, so I'd split the money evenly in these three funds, and put the taxable money in a CD ladder, or maybe munis, just t...
by scone
Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Success! Our new 401K Plan with Lower Fees .. Funds Help plz
Replies: 29
Views: 2364

Re: Do any other men here regulalry use skin care products?

I've started my DH using DMAE cream, as he has skin problems, and it has made a huge difference. He was going on about it not being manly, so I told him this stuff was originally developed as a medical treatment, and smells medicinal, not girly. It's all rather silly, skin is skin. And if you told h...
by scone
Mon Dec 29, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do any other men here regulalry use skin care products?
Replies: 45
Views: 3517

Re: How Much Do You Sacrifice?

We don't do things this way. We direct a portion of each paycheck to savings right off the top, and bank all bonuses. Then we live on the rest. This method is very simple, and fair, IMO. I think if I had to budget every little thing, and nit-picking every little expense, it would drive me crazy.
by scone
Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Do You Sacrifice?
Replies: 82
Views: 6601

Re: Do I Pay Cash for my home?

scone - you make some good points. But if the house value crashes, their net worth 'is a lot less' whether they pay cash or get a mortgage. This isn't the way it's normally calculated, it's certainly not standard economics, but to me, the value of a house is "imaginary" until it is sold. ...
by scone
Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I Pay Cash for my home?
Replies: 49
Views: 3976

Re: Buy rental property as I cannot afford house where I liv

Frankly, you don't have enough money to fool around with real estate. You can get ahead of the situation only by saving a lot more money, and eventually getting out of the Bay Area. That might mean finding some roommates, or commuting in from a cheaper area, like the Valley. You might even be able t...
by scone
Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy rental property as I cannot afford house where I live
Replies: 7
Views: 1337

Re: Do I Pay Cash for my home?

Since everyone seems to be in the "pay cash" camp, I'm going to play Devil's advocate and discuss the down side risk. Let's say you pay $250,000 cash, or more, for the house. Now you have a large chunk of your net worth in a highly illiquid asset. If you keep all your other assets in the s...
by scone
Mon Dec 22, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I Pay Cash for my home?
Replies: 49
Views: 3976

Re: Green day

It was a quadruple witching day, so possibly some weirdness there.
by scone
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Green day
Replies: 8
Views: 1006

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

NASDAQ certainly has been cray-cray the last couple of years. Coming back close to where it was just before the tech wreck. I'm getting flashbacks. :shock:
by scone
Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221556

Re: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk

Since I'm still accumulating, and don't need income from my bonds, my only concern is how my bonds mix with stocks, particularly in a crisis. For that purpose, Treasuries are best. After I retire, then the income on bonds becomes more important, but so do taxes, so I will have an allocation to muni ...
by scone
Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 981

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I think other people in a hospital are more interesting than other people in a nursing home. One problem with nursing homes is that there are no men there. Victoria Some would not consider that a problem. You can't be serious {OK, I am not being serious, but every joke has a bit of a joke...} But I...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11639

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

{laughing}You got a point. Fortunately, as someone said about physics, electrons don't think. That's not everyone's belief, actually, but neither here nor there. As I understand it, doctors administer to others treatments that they would not accept themselves, such as the above mentioned resuscitat...
by scone
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 171
Views: 11639
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