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Re: Convince me to lump sum into the market

There was a giant thread a few years ago on DCA vs LS:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=83767

Read that. There is nothing more anyone else can say that hasn't already been said there :D. Some people were convinced on that thread, others weren't.

-- Ashwin
by sashwin
Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to lump sum into the market
Replies: 57
Views: 11285

Re: Woodpeckers...I'm desperate!

I live near Seattle, and had this problem last year. Not just 1, but 3-4 woodpeckers all tag-teaming the house. I called a company and they came and sprayed Grape Extract. For the next 2-3 days, no change, so I thought the company just hoodwinked me. But then the woodpeckers went away mysteriously. ...
by sashwin
Sun Apr 13, 2014 2:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Woodpeckers...I'm desperate!
Replies: 52
Views: 5111

Re: Seattle trip at end of May - Any tips?

Try this link: http://www.citysearch.com/guide/seattle-wa-metro They have guides, a number of "best of", and will give you a good idea. Prev poster has some excellent suggestions. If you want an offbeat idea, try this walking tour: http://www.undergroundtour.com/ Restaurants - huge number ...
by sashwin
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle trip at end of May - Any tips?
Replies: 23
Views: 2052

Re: reading advice for an ambitious woman in her early 20s?

The eye-opener for me years ago was "Personal Finance for Dummies" by Eric Tyson. Much broader than just investing, and it started a journey that eventually led me to Bogleheads.

-- Ashwin
by sashwin
Sat Apr 05, 2014 1:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: reading advice for an ambitious woman in her early 20s?
Replies: 32
Views: 3130

Re: Laptop Recommendation?

If you need a convertible, check out the Surface Pro. Full Windows8, powerful enough processor, so it can be a full laptop when you need it to be. Also works great as a tablet. Also if your household has other MS devices (Xbox, Windows Phone), then the integration between these is likely to be at le...
by sashwin
Tue May 28, 2013 11:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop Recommendation?
Replies: 50
Views: 4525

Re: Switching jobs, how can I convert my 401k to a Roth IRA?

Conversion is simple - establish a traditional IRA at Vanguard, and then on Vanguard just click on the links to rollover from 401k, and it will guide you through the process. Once your 401k is in the tIRA at Vanguard, you can then convert to Roth, again a simple online process. Conversion should not...
by sashwin
Sat May 25, 2013 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching jobs, how can I convert my 401k to a Roth IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 1033

Re: Advice on Highlander/Odyssey purchase

I have a Highlander Hybrid, wanted to get a minivan multiple times but wife feels a minivan is uncool. My attempts at convincing her a Highlander is not particularly cool either have falled on deaf ears. I love the Highlander Hybrid, but for space and comfort you can't beat the minivan: ⋅ ...
by sashwin
Fri May 24, 2013 3:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on Highlander/Odyssey purchase
Replies: 44
Views: 4263

Re: Refinance Adivice

I have under 80% LTV, so our situations are not exactly comparable. However, I can get a 30-yr fixed at 3.5%, with 0 closing costs (ie, the discount on the loan covers closing costs).

-- Ashwin
by sashwin
Sat May 18, 2013 2:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Adivice
Replies: 7
Views: 553

Re: Auto Paint Repair

If they don't, look for the reviews of Autobody shops in your area on Yelp, and find a shop that will guarantee it, at least for this time. Talk to them up-front about this situation. Those parking garages aren't going anywhere... :x. I also have to ask, based on your moniker - do you wear shoes whe...
by sashwin
Fri May 17, 2013 11:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Paint Repair
Replies: 3
Views: 291

Re: Auto Paint Repair

A good repair shop should stand by their work. The one I've been to actually fixed a situation like this even after some time. However, it does depend on whether you got the original work to be what they recommended (a full cleanup/repair/repainting) vs a touchup. In the latter case, which I've chos...
by sashwin
Fri May 17, 2013 10:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Paint Repair
Replies: 3
Views: 291

Re: Do we qualify for Roth IRA?

Hi,

You always have the option to contribute to Roth, via the so-called backdoor:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth_IRA

I've done this repeatedly over the years, works great.

-- Ashwin
by sashwin
Fri May 17, 2013 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do we qualify for Roth IRA?
Replies: 8
Views: 2561

Re: VNQ vs VNQI

To all REIT holders. Just an FYI. VNQI has a 2% higher yield and 1/2 the p/b ratio of VNQ. Both indicate a higher return in VNQI then VNQ. In addition, VNQI is less correlated to the US Stock Market then VNQ. I am 70/30 VNQI/VNQ for my 10% overall REIT allocation. Food for thought. If this changed ...
by sashwin
Fri May 17, 2013 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNQ vs VNQI
Replies: 5
Views: 498

Re: Inverse DCA vs. Lump Sum

If you feel comforted by ignoring the fact that the timing (i.e. price point) of your entry into or out of the market can have very tangible consequences, far be it for me to judge. --Pete Pete I remember our debates from a while back on DCA vs LS, particularly your roulette wheel analogy that elim...
by sashwin
Fri May 17, 2013 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse DCA vs. Lump Sum
Replies: 23
Views: 1419

Re: Rejoice! Your House Is An Investment Again

Rick Ferri wrote:I've learned over the past few weeks that there are two investment topics that people become very passionate about - gold and houses.

Rick Ferri


Maybe you recently discovered the passion around houses, but on gold the PP folks have been beating you up for years :D

--Ashwin
by sashwin
Thu May 09, 2013 3:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rejoice! Your House Is An Investment Again
Replies: 105
Views: 7893

Re: Roth IRA fund options

The Target Retirement fund you quote is fine for a Roth IRA account. The tax inefficiency does not matter in Roth IRA, plus you can always change your allocation in a few years if/when you feel the need, without worrying about any taxes on the sale. For details, see these links in the Wiki: http://w...
by sashwin
Thu May 09, 2013 1:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA fund options
Replies: 4
Views: 1188

Re: What's the best dandelion killer?

I had the same conundrum as you, and I found this product Fiesta to work quite well. It claims to be greener than the other products: http://fiestaweedkiller.com/ It definitely worked for me. The first time I used a little less, and while many weeds were gone, there were still a few left. The next t...
by sashwin
Tue May 07, 2013 7:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the best dandelion killer?
Replies: 54
Views: 4880

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA: Every Year?

Hi, To confirm what others have already mentioned: Your original traditional and Roth IRAs will remain open, and tIRA will show balance of 0. Next year contribute non-deductible $5000 to tIRA, and invest in Prime Money Market - reason is this guarantees pretty much that investment value will stay $5...
by sashwin
Sat Apr 27, 2013 3:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA: Every Year?
Replies: 13
Views: 2680

From the article: It started about 30 years ago. As a young, impressionable man in my early twenties, So you are in your 50s now ? From the photo at the top, I would have guessed late 30s. In addiiton to sharing your financial expertise, care to share your tips to youthful looks as well ? :D -- Ashwin
by sashwin
Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Index
Replies: 19
Views: 2376

Related: If gold has a negative expected nominal return, and stocks have a positive expected nominal return, over long periods doesn't this by definition mean they have negative correlation to one another? I'm not a statistician, but I don't believe your statement is true. Suppose there are two ass...
by sashwin
Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll]Which assets are negatively correlated to U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 8835

Ashwin Hypothetcally, IF two asset classes have 0% return and IF those two asset classes had return volatility, and IF they are not +1.0 positive correlated with each other, then there will be a positive return assuming no investment cost, no commissions, no trading spread, and full liquidity. Do y...
by sashwin
Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll]Which assets are negatively correlated to U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 8835

Since there are simple and obvious analogies, thought experiments and mathematical proofs (OK, *those* aren't quite as simple) that favor LS and since DCA is internally inconsistent (e.g. incrementally investing towards an AA before even having an AA) I think the burden of addressing the pro-LS arg...
by sashwin
Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

Clearly investing with an inappropriate asset allocation is risky. So the purpose of dollar cost averaging is to reduce risk for a period while the investor considers what his asset allocation should be in light of the newly found wealth. This is better than waiting until one has decided on a defin...
by sashwin
Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

It's illogical to argue that LS beats DCA based on past performance, yet that I should not prefer DCAing when the market valuations seem very high, because that's a prediction based on past performance. No, that is not what I'm saying. I am conceding that DCA will beat LS some percentage of the tim...
by sashwin
Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

I used Shiller data to compare effect of DCA $100 over a 12 month period, compared to lump sum at the beginning. The overall result was, as you might expect, that DCA seemed to broadly halve both returns and risk. (I might give a different answer for a different asset class. Bernstein (I think) not...
by sashwin
Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

There are no negatively correlated asset classes. Correlations are dynamic, not static. An asset class can be negatively correlated one year and positively correlated the next. Rick Ferri Rick, having observed some of your debates with the gold bugs and Permanent Portfolio fans, I would say this is...
by sashwin
Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll]Which assets are negatively correlated to U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 8835

So do you now agree that "buying" into an AA is different than "holding" one? --Pete Pete, suppose instead of a windfall via inheritance, what you get is an unexpected massive dividend payout from your stock holdings. Do you re-invest it, or do you DCA it ? Another question: You...
by sashwin
Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

One could adopt the general principle that no investor should make a abrupt change in his AA. Since Moe is at his goal AA, he should make no change. Larry is not at his goal AA, so he should make a gradual change. That way, both mitigating the risk of unlucky timing. I could also say that the day b...
by sashwin
Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

Test drive DCA: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/dollar_cost.htm This calculator will let you select any starting month beginning Jan, 1950 and compare the results of a 12-month DCA to LS. For those who want to cut to the chase, here's the bottom line: Each strategy wins at least some of the time...
by sashwin
Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

Sorry, the past two days were crazy at work and only now did I return to this thread. Suppose the market has some positive expected return every day, but volatility changes day to day. Your entire investment career is 30 years, and today is the last day of that. In other words, you have some old mon...
by sashwin
Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

DCA can reduce your risk. But none of the advocates are willing to apply the principle in a consistent manner to all of an investor's available funds. Exactly. Suppose your AA is 50/50/0 stocks/bonds/cash and you've been comfortable with it for a while, including rebalancing, not moving to cash per...
by sashwin
Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

Has anyone done the analysis of DCA vs LS into a 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio, with rebalancing at the same points as DCA ? Ie, you'd look at the historical data for each year just as in original study, but: DCA: While making each installment, say on 4th of the month, you'd rebalance the total AA (m...
by sashwin
Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

The failure of one's chosen AA to underperform some other possible AA... That's clearly not what's being discussed. The fact that the very same AA can produce dramatically different results due solely to the timing of one single entry point into that AA versus another, separated by mere months or w...
by sashwin
Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

- Although the usual advice is to treat your entire portfolio across all accounts as one, and place funds based on best location, this makes rebalancing harder, particularly if some accounts make it hard to move funds. It works fine as long as you can move some of the funds between accounts, which ...
by sashwin
Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some advice with my funds and expense ratios..thanks
Replies: 7
Views: 703

I have a different perspective than some of the folks here, in that I'm a newbie like you, not an expert. The folks above have given excellent advice on the funds themselves. So let me focus on a few gotchas I found myself hitting: - Make sure you have a written asset allocation (AA) - see the excel...
by sashwin
Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need some advice with my funds and expense ratios..thanks
Replies: 7
Views: 703

Re: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic fore

Here is an analogy I attempted before on this topic: Pretend there is a roulette wheel that you can use to purchase into your desired allocation. There are 24 pockets, each with a different weighted portfolio price. You don't know today's portfolio value (if you were already fully invested), and yo...
by sashwin
Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

jhh9327

Which group would you choose to join in the following scenario? Group A - Each person in this group flips a coin 10 times. Every flip puts 10% of your original net worth at risk. The first 5 times you flip, your win 3 times your bet if it ends up heads. You lose the bet if you get tails. The second...
by sashwin
Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

You and your best friend sell separate businesses in 2008 and each receive $10 million after taxes. Neither of you have any other substantial savings because you each reinvested extra funds in your companies throughout the years. You both live similar lifestyles, reviewed the same data and both dec...
by sashwin
Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

Yeah, that's the point, but I'm still somewhat swayed by arguments that the risk mitigated by DCA is somehow different from that mitigated by asset class diversification. But, the thought experiment makes it hard to see how. I am now leaning towards LS and as a prior DCA advocate might have to fall...
by sashwin
Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally! Can we lay DCA to rest and ban this topic forever?
Replies: 501
Views: 27925

Thank you Jim and nisiprius ! Jim: I actually did Google them (or Bing rather :)), but I could not see the difference :oops:. Actually I did not even notice the 40% Federal that you mention. I was definitely looking to see if they varied in exposure to type of bonds. I would have picked the one that...
by sashwin
Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FTHRX vs FBNDX
Replies: 3
Views: 660

FTHRX vs FBNDX

Hi, I'm trying to find a decent bond fund in my wife's 401(k). I'm looking for an intermediate term fund. The ideal would have been an index fund, but there are no such options there. There is no BrokerageLink option either. My only options there are: Fidelity Intermediate Bond Fund (FTHRX) Fidelity...
by sashwin
Sun Sep 18, 2011 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FTHRX vs FBNDX
Replies: 3
Views: 660

Admiral shares have mins, and sometimes fees

For the funds that I cared about (REIT, small cap value, emerging markets), about 6 months ago I switched to ETFs because: - Either there were no Admiral class funds - Or there were steep minimums - Or there were purchase/redemption fees, making rebalancing costlier I don't know if things have chang...
by sashwin
Sun Sep 18, 2011 5:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I think ETFs make more sense that Admiral-Shares MF
Replies: 60
Views: 5294

What is the real rate of return of Gold ?

In all the various PP threads, I've seen contradictory statements about the real rate of return of Gold (ie, inflation adjusted). Some people say it has low positive real returns, others say it has negative real returns. Doesn't this make a big difference ? If you believe that the goal of a portfoli...
by sashwin
Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio - A Sympathetic Boglehead's Perspective
Replies: 203
Views: 23202

Thanks again everyone, useful to read the debate.

saurabhec and gatorking: Very useful info, I really appreciate it. I'll look into this.

And of course, any more info from anyone is always welcome :)

-- Ashwin
by sashwin
Mon May 09, 2011 1:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for parents in India
Replies: 16
Views: 1943

Thanks for the tip on bank CDs (which I was actually aware of, but still appreciate people trying to help). But isn't it true that if banks pay 8%, real inflation is way over that amount ? While I would put some amount in bank CDs, I likely want to diversify in other assets too. It is in this contex...
by sashwin
Sun May 08, 2011 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for parents in India
Replies: 16
Views: 1943

Investing for parents in India

Hi, My parents live in India, and are retired. They need to live off their savings. I've been trying to find some mutual funds in India that would generate reasonably steady income, via dividends and/or bond interest. Unfortunately information about funds in India is very limited online, and whateve...
by sashwin
Sun May 08, 2011 1:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for parents in India
Replies: 16
Views: 1943

TIPS ladder in kids college fund ?

I saw this thread by Grok87: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=71927&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight= which shows how a rolling TIPs ladder can provide guaranteed real income at retirement. My question is, can I use the same concept to fund a child's college ...
by sashwin
Wed Apr 20, 2011 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS ladder in kids college fund ?
Replies: 2
Views: 297

History or Monte Carlo

Thanks to you folks, I understand the issues with historical sequences and I understand the issues with Monte Carlo. I also appreciate the point made by Magellan and others, that these are really tools to do what-if analysis, to understand how sensitive the answers are to the input parameters. This ...
by sashwin
Wed Apr 20, 2011 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study Authors update their results
Replies: 506
Views: 82493

Re: World Portfolio just as good as US ?

I don't know if you are overlooking the fact that this chart is calculated with the assumption of perfect foresight in asset allocation. For instance, the 1908 retiree with perfect foresight chose 100% stocks and 1910 retiree with perfect foresight chose only 40% stocks. The hypothetical retiree, w...
by sashwin
Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study Authors update their results
Replies: 506
Views: 82493

World Portfolio just as good as US ?

Wade: Thanks for the quick response, and for the data on the World Stock Portfolio. To me, it is very reassuring to see that a diversified World Stock portfolio still produced a Safemax near the US one. I understand all the disclaimers about history not repeating. However, I feel that when people sa...
by sashwin
Mon Apr 18, 2011 1:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study Authors update their results
Replies: 506
Views: 82493

Getting greedy - more ideas for research

As a newbie, I'd like to thank all the participants on this thread. I've learnt a lot reading this, understanding the various uncertainties in planning and their causes. Wade references a paper where he considers the entire lifecycle - both accumulation phase and retirement phase. I think this is gr...
by sashwin
Sun Apr 17, 2011 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study Authors update their results
Replies: 506
Views: 82493
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