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Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Agree that withdrawal rate may be lower in older age. There is significant cognitive decline, even starting at 65, and various degrees of dementia can set in. May not drive - no car needed May not use electronics well etc etc etc You might live to older age, but there can be less discretionary spend...
by sambb
Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9644

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

volvo - never again.
look at lexus for reliability
by sambb
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4155

Re: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?

we are due for a bear market.
If one is near retirement, that may be relevant.
If one is 20 years away, then probably doesn't matter.
by sambb
Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5673

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

Look at the returns and graphs of life strategy growth and life strategy moderate growth
of course comparative graphs can be manipulated by the start time. Start them at a market low and a market high and trace..
can be informative

vanguard also has an asset allocation tool that can address
by sambb
Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2652

Re: More money equates to feeling poor?

agree with OP - the more i visit here, the poorer i feel! but it is psychology, not reality
by sambb
Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More money equates to feeling poor?
Replies: 50
Views: 6117

Re: Quintessential Australia/New Zealand Things To Do/Visit

stay in australia, NZ is just ok comparatively
by sambb
Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quintessential Australia/New Zealand Things To Do/Visit
Replies: 17
Views: 1319

Re: Fly or drive [with a newborn]?

Fly, but no matter what you choose, often it is difficult.
by sambb
Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly or drive [with a newborn]?
Replies: 58
Views: 4560

Re: High(ish) earner; spending too much?

Spending is fine, saving is better, but lifestyle creep is the key. Avoid that.
by sambb
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High(ish) earner; spending too much?
Replies: 69
Views: 7438

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

I doubt bribery any different in other countries and the US. I invest international to hedge my bets against the US should there be a major problem here. I'm sure Bogle has ideas contrary, but logical arguments can be made both ways, so a small allocation 10-30% of equities is reasonable.
by sambb
Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11414

Re: mother-in-law wrecked our car

I have a peripheral role in assessing driver safety as part of my professional work. Driving is a very complex task and lends itself to seriously negative outcomes, not to mention liability, so I cannot afford to be cavalier about the work. There are some black and white cases of cognitive or physi...
by sambb
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: mother-in-law wrecked our car
Replies: 52
Views: 5270

Re: Why So Many Used Prius for Sale?

I don't believe that the prius is comparable to a corolla to all buyers. Sure it may be in size, but not in its potential prestige and resale value. I regularly walk through a lot where a higher paying profession works. Sure there are BMWs, and mercedes, and lexus. But there are also several prius a...
by sambb
Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why So Many Used Prius for Sale?
Replies: 51
Views: 6832

Re: Any regrets going from iOS to Android phone?

i switched to android. quickly switched back. iOS just works - and works well for me. both have their supporters, but i far prefer iOS. Financially, it is nice to be in one of the ecosystems (apps, etc)
by sambb
Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any regrets going from iOS to Android phone?
Replies: 27
Views: 3372

Re: Giving money to your alma mater: Have to vent

i dont donate to my college/university, but they helped me so much to have a better career with their name on my CV, that i don't care if they call for donations. I am appreciative of them and they opened doors for me. I probably should be donating to them. In fact, maybe i will.
by sambb
Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving money to your alma mater: Have to vent
Replies: 166
Views: 16556

Re: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?

Not sure why buffet likes any mutual fund or any stock he invests in - he would know because he is a stock picker and a market timer. if he uses s&p 500 instead of total stock, i would presume that he thinks it would do better - after all, that is his "thing" - to do better than the ma...
by sambb
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Buffett like S&P not Total US Market?
Replies: 29
Views: 2706

Re: Do you celebrate financial milestones?

I don't celebrate them but wish i did
by sambb
Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you celebrate financial milestones?
Replies: 105
Views: 12082

Re: Does anyone own iPad Air 2?

own it, love it, apple products are incredible for the user experience
by sambb
Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone own iPad Air 2?
Replies: 15
Views: 2113

Re: Oil / Energy ETFs

One can use oil investment as a hedge against inflation in has prices possibly. Can lower your risk at the pump. Wont lower your portfolio risk, but there is risk beyond one's portfolio that can be limited. Few models would take this into account i bet, I like this idea. Going to have to think abou...
by sambb
Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil / Energy ETFs
Replies: 54
Views: 3711

Re: Would you move/stay for better school district?

I used to think that it didn't really matter. Lately, I've had occasion to do seminars in grade 6 classes. The difference between a good school's class and a not-so-good school's class is obvious. There schools are all in the same district, however - so school choice is far more important than dist...
by sambb
Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you move/stay for better school district?
Replies: 55
Views: 4611

Re: An overdue update from a "panicked investor"

Nothing wrong with wanting to hit 10 millions. What if gates or jobs or rockefeller stopped at 3 million? Another way of looking at it - make as much as you think you need. Why not, we aren't living your life. Only you can judge what you need. You might want to travel in first class, or buy an impra...
by sambb
Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An overdue update from a "panicked investor"
Replies: 86
Views: 8729

Re: Oil / Energy ETFs

One can use oil investment as a hedge against inflation in has prices possibly. Can lower your risk at the pump. Wont lower your portfolio risk, but there is risk beyond one's portfolio that can be limited. Few models would take this into account i bet,
by sambb
Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil / Energy ETFs
Replies: 54
Views: 3711

Re: Would you move/stay for better school district?

would, without a doubt, stay in a good school district. I went to a bad public school, was lucky enough to hit a good college. doors opened - learning opportunities, guidance,etc that i never knew existed. wish they opened earlier when i was in grade school.
by sambb
Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you move/stay for better school district?
Replies: 55
Views: 4611

Re: advice for high net worth family member - simplifying

The family and spouse asked me for my guidance. Sorry that wasn't clear. Mainly to simplify his financial assets. None of my business except I was asked by the family. There is no financial plan in place for his family. Will recc they go elsewhere for advice with him.
by sambb
Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: advice for high net worth family member - simplifying
Replies: 14
Views: 1498

advice for high net worth family member - simplifying

Main issue: simplification, lower risk, increase returns in elderly family member


deleted
by sambb
Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: advice for high net worth family member - simplifying
Replies: 14
Views: 1498

Re: Am I being too conservative at 65/35?

would use firecalc and calculate it out.
seems a reasonable allocation however, at age-12 in bonds.
by sambb
Thu Nov 27, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being too conservative at 65/35?
Replies: 24
Views: 4033

Re: Private college counselor

Sambb, Would it be possible to share a bit more how it opened more doors to you. Are there any differences between the Ivies in regard to non-engineering science studies thank you Sure, but I would rather do it via PM rather than publicly. I was offered a shot at better internships, jobs, graduate ...
by sambb
Thu Nov 27, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private college counselor
Replies: 76
Views: 4556

Re: Is 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds still best balance?

I am a big fan of staying around 50/50 and 60/40 for my own risk tolerance, despite still being in my 30's. We have always had a high savings rate up until now (we are working less and trying to have more time for family). I still treat equities as very risky, even over the longterm, but I strongly...
by sambb
Thu Nov 27, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds still best balance?
Replies: 36
Views: 6329

Re: Why should I avoid REITs?

i think it is reasonable to diversify and have a small percentage in reits.
by sambb
Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why should I avoid REITs?
Replies: 51
Views: 6068

Re: Is 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds still best balance?

The mantra here , of "stay the course", cannot be tested in a bull market, but rather in a bear market. A lot of people sold at the low,and didn't get back in. A 60/40 mix might have prevented wide swings in a portfolio. I think it is a nice starting point until one defines one's risk tole...
by sambb
Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds still best balance?
Replies: 36
Views: 6329

Re: Opinions Please - REIT's vs. EM

Ive been rebalancing into EM. it may not be timing. Just an opportunity to reshuffle.
by sambb
Thu Nov 27, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions Please - REIT's vs. EM
Replies: 21
Views: 1774

Re: Being woken up by neighbors above me

seem like they are getting up at a normal time and walking around. i don't think you have a case.
by sambb
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Being woken up by neighbors above me
Replies: 79
Views: 6305

Re: I'd like to start managing OPM (other people's money)...

people commonly want to be in financial advising in bull markets IMHO
Bear markets test one's job - clients leave, or have to cash out for all sorts of reasons
by sambb
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'd like to start managing OPM (other people's money)...
Replies: 15
Views: 1112

Re: Private college counselor

I would hire a counselor
I attended an IVY
It was absolutely the right decision for me and opened alot of doors for me. Would do it the same way again.
by sambb
Wed Nov 26, 2014 6:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private college counselor
Replies: 76
Views: 4556

Re: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?

if you see some older threads, a lot of people did not stay the course. they may not be around here too much anymore.
by sambb
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 6244

Re: Random life events

From a relationship standpoint - I played the field a lot and wasn't faithful - which easily allowed me to be emotionally detached from personal relationships and focus on my work/job/career and do very well. I had no problem being unavailable for girlfriends, so i could instead be available for wor...
by sambb
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Random life events
Replies: 34
Views: 2941

Re: Need for Int'l Investing

would definitely put 20% into int'l. America is not what it used to be from a growth perspective. Nice to diversify risk.
by sambb
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for Int'l Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1076

Re: Where to invest end of year bonus

Half: pay off auto loan
Half: lifestrategy moderate (60/40) since i think your risk tolerance is low given the market highs you mentioned. Don't look at the fund for 20 years. You will be happy with the result.
by sambb
Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to invest end of year bonus
Replies: 16
Views: 1494

Re: What do you splurge on?

splurge: kids' education
by sambb
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you splurge on?
Replies: 234
Views: 20391

Re: Avoiding lifestyle creep

mortgage payment = completely 100% safe return ahead of other safe returns.
Nice if you dont want to invest the money. i did it. so nice to have no mortgage. It is mental relief.
by sambb
Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding lifestyle creep
Replies: 30
Views: 5436

Re: need portfolio help, feeling overwhelmed, too many funds

Put all of your tax deferred money into life strategy growth - which is 80/20 S/B. Close enough to 90/10
Then forget about that money as it grows over the next 20 years

for taxable, there are a lot of options.
by sambb
Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need portfolio help, feeling overwhelmed, too many funds
Replies: 6
Views: 723

Re: Bogleheads, anyone doing "Black Friday"

I will probably pick up the latest iPad with the deals offered. The resale of last years is so decent, that why not upgrade. It a device to use all the time anyway.
by sambb
Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, any "Black Friday" [recommendations]
Replies: 59
Views: 5667

Re: 23 year old... Can I afford a Rolex?

If you are buying your watch to tell time - I wouldn't buy. You are 23. Im sure you have a smartphone like most of the people within 20 years of your age. If you are buying this as fashion/jewelery/status - at 23 not sure you will like it in 10 years. Tastes change. I wouldn't buy. However, if you d...
by sambb
Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 23 year old... Can I afford a Rolex?
Replies: 167
Views: 13912

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

"because the world has proven that from 2007-into the 2010s " ... and that is the problem. 8 track tapes were a sure thing, so were cassettes. OMG, the horse and buggy was a sure thing before the automobile. Life is littered with things that were a sure thing when you are looking in the r...
by sambb
Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099

Re: 23 year old... Can I afford a Rolex?

the watch era is over - people use their smartphones.
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 23 year old... Can I afford a Rolex?
Replies: 167
Views: 13912

Re: Movie dialog, "The Social Network." Hard to hear?

I had no problem hearing the dialog
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Movie dialog, "The Social Network." Hard to hear?
Replies: 15
Views: 2318

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

What proves that it was a sure thing was the product itself was a sure thing - not any claims by anyone. The product was that good compared to the competition. I am so glad however that you don't see it that way - because that attitude is what enabled the financial aspect of the skyrocketing stock -...
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

of course people can be wrong about "sure things" that didn't pan out. But that's because those things weren't sure things - people were wrong. The iPhone was a 100% a sure thing - it wasn't wrong. Anyone who used it could see that on the day it came out, if they opened their mind enough a...
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

Unlike flipping a coin, the success of the iPhone was not a random event. Again, you would have to go back to the original release and the effects thereof. It was a total game changer. It is not a coin. But the fact that there are skeptics is exactly what drove the price. There were those of us that...
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

sambb: per your post above, that was a real Peter Lynch moment. Good job on spotting the novelty and the future market power of Apples products. Peter lynch was before my time, and I know he was a big stock picker who ran magellan. I don't want to compare myself to him - i could never do this again...
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

[/quote]They didn't really know more, they made bets.[/quote] Obviously, it depends on what crowd one hung out with. I disagree that they didn't know more. Some absolutely did. The ballmer video in which he laughs at the phone shows that there was a large crowd that didn't believe in the iPhone. But...
by sambb
Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

An above person wrote: Even if one agreed with the theory that these 2 products would be commercial successes, that doesn't necessarily translate in price appreciation. You have to believe you know more than the market overall about the future. What makes you think you knew more ? IMO, it was just a...
by sambb
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 11099
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