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Re: Past and Future returns

Taylor Larimore wrote:This table includes the past 15 year asset-class returns for the period ending 6-30-00:

This is obviously a cherry-picked end date, but it still shows that there can be long periods of under-performance for a given segment of the market.
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 83
Views: 5320

Re: What is a VIT?

The description sure gives them a lot of wiggle room in what to invest in. Perhaps they don't want to pay S&P for the use of their index. The investment seeks to provide investment results which approximate the price and yield performance of publicly traded common stocks in the aggregate. - but ...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a VIT?
Replies: 5
Views: 585

Re: The mathematics of recouping loss

gatorking wrote:The graph doesn't care about compounding. It takes 62 consecutive 1% declines to get from 100 to 50 (50% loss) and 62 consecutive 1% increases to get from 50 to 100 (100% increase).


I get 70 1% increases to get to 2 and 69 1% decreases to get to 0.5.
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The mathematics of recouping loss
Replies: 11
Views: 1221

Re: Send text messages from PC to Cell Phone

hicabob wrote:To send a text to a verizon cellphone from a PC I send email to nnnnnnnnnn@vzwpix.com. (n's are the phone digits) . I believe all other carriers have similar


This allows you to send pictures as well as text.
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Send text messages from PC to Cell Phone
Replies: 15
Views: 1329

Re: Does investing in a 401k actually save any money?

This wiki page has a year-by-year numerical table that compares taxable vs. Roth, Deductible IRA, and Non-deductible IRA. A 401K would be like the Deductible IRA. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Non-deductible_traditional_IRA It should lay to rest the "converting cap gains into income" fear...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in a 401k actually save any money?
Replies: 44
Views: 3241

Re: Small cap value premium

I don't think it is a huge leap to accept that small cap stocks (in aggregate) tend to be riskier than large cap stocks (in aggregate) because of the underlying risks associated with small businesses versus large established businesses. If one doesn't accept this as at least likely to be true, he o...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 83
Views: 5320

Re: Small cap value premium

If one uses a relative definition for value (e.g. 50% of stocks with lowest P/E (or any other value metric)), then by definition no stocks will be over-valued. Wait, stop ... not so fast. I can't agree. Some industries by nature tend to have a lower P/E. Take for instance two banks (A and B) that b...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 83
Views: 5320

Re: Estimating expected stock returns and the optimal portfo

..., the optimal allocation between stocks and bonds should shift as the expected returns on stocks changes. How accurate were the projections for expected stock return from 20-30 years ago? And what is the standard deviation of current predictions for the next 20-30 years? If the accuracy is not g...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating expected stock returns and the optimal portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 1559

Re: Can Non-Tax Filers Contribute to IRA?

It might be worthwhile to fill out the tax form and keep it on file, even if you don't send it to the IRS.

cdm770234 wrote: I know there are no tax benefits, ...

But there is a tax benefit - with a Roth IRA, you can withdraw the contributions and earnings tax free after age 59 1/2.
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can Non-Tax Filers Contribute to IRA?
Replies: 12
Views: 1227

Re: Small cap value premium

There's a problem in the way people define active styles as "growth" and "value". Being in a "value" style doesn't mean it's not over-valued. It just means it fits certain metric and style criteria. A company can have a low PE and still be over-priced. If a company isn...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 83
Views: 5320

Re: Moving part of IRA from stocks to bond fund

I was wondering when a good time is to move some of my IRA from total stock market fund to total bond fund to rebalance my portfolio? Should I wait until after quarterly dividends are added? Now is a good time. Quarterly dividends don't matter - you have the same total balance before and after in a...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving part of IRA from stocks to bond fund
Replies: 1
Views: 330

Re: Portfolio advice for new investor, large lump sum

Looks fine to me. Some people put a premium on simplicity, others like to tinker or try something different. If you expect the market to generally go up, lump sum is better than DCA, if you have the lump - don't wait to accumulate the lump. Your AA of 40/40/20 is within standard allocations, althoug...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 20, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice for new investor, large lump sum
Replies: 14
Views: 1528

Re: What temperature for house for long winter absence?

Tropical houseplants can be affected if the house is too cold.
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 20, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What temperature for house for long winter absence?
Replies: 31
Views: 2809

Re: Small cap value premium

In regards to the behavior theory : I would argue that as of late there's been a lot of publicity towards SCV tilting and thus they may be OVER valued if anything. Small Cap Value cannot be over-valued, by definition (i.e. if the price rose high enough to make the stock over-valued, then it wouldn'...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 83
Views: 5320

Re: Small cap value premium

In regards to the behavior theory : I would argue that as of late there's been a lot of publicity towards SCV tilting and thus they may be OVER valued if anything. Small Cap Value cannot be over-valued, by definition (i.e. if the price rose high enough to make the stock over-valued, then it wouldn'...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 83
Views: 5320

Re: Adding taxable investments to retirement portfolio

Just for completeness, what is the lowest cost option for total international in your 401K and its ER?
by rkhusky
Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding taxable investments to retirement portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1054

Re: Overwhelmed with Asset Allocation

So I am now thinking: Vanguard 500 (VFINX) 35% Small Cap (NAESX) 10% REIT (VGSIX) 5% Total Int (VGTSX) 20% Total Bond (VBMFX) 30% VG's Extended Market (VEXMX) is the completion index for the S&P 500 (i.e. VFINX + VEXMX = TSM). With NAESX, you would be missing some stocks (VEXMX has 3291 stocks ...
by rkhusky
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overwhelmed with Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2234

Re: Adding taxable investments to retirement portfolio

I thought TISM was more tax-efficient than TSM, per this page: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_tax-efficient_fund_placement If all else is equal, international funds have a small tax advantage over US funds, because they are eligible for the foreign tax credit. You also need to conside...
by rkhusky
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding taxable investments to retirement portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1054

Re: Overwhelmed with Asset Allocation

How about a Roth IRA for her? Roll the old 403b into the new 403b. Given that there isn't any really good bond or int'l funds in your new 403b, I see two options: 1) Total Stock Market in the 403B. Total Stock Market, Total Int'l and Total Bond in Roth IRA's to get to your AA (50% US, 20% Int'l, 30%...
by rkhusky
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overwhelmed with Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2234

Re: Roth vs Traditional 401k - What percentages would you do

If you will be in a substantially lower bracket in retirement, have no pension, and plan to wait until 70 to take SS, I would recommend 100% Traditional, especially since you are maxing Roth IRA. I would also take the tax savings from using the Traditional 401K and put it into a taxable account, oth...
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs Traditional 401k - What percentages would you do?
Replies: 11
Views: 977

Re: Regression Analysis and Asset Allocation

Put a few funds into this tool and see what you get:

http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression Analysis and Asset Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 991

Re: Should you use a 401k if you'll def. be in a higher brac

This wiki page has a comparison between taxable and tax-advantaged accounts. It would be interesting to see under what sets of parameters that investing in taxable would be better.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Non-dedu ... tional_IRA
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you use a 401k if you'll def. be in a higher bracket?
Replies: 18
Views: 2318

Re: Basic investment question

Do you have a Roth IRA? You can withdraw contributions in an emergency.

You can do the 3-fund portfolio in taxable (Total Stock, Total Int'l, Tax Exempt Bond). Or just choose one, depending on what you have in your other accounts.
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Basic investment question
Replies: 17
Views: 1394

Re: Heads up best reward credit card I've seen.

Penfed Cash Rewards gives 5% off gas and it is credited every month, rather than having to redeem points.
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Heads up one of the better reward credit card I've seen.
Replies: 54
Views: 6060

Re: Basic Help on Fund Distributions

See this wiki article for discussion on buying/selling in a taxable account with respect to distribution dates:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Timing_o ... duce_taxes
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Basic Help on Fund Distributions
Replies: 8
Views: 288

Re: Basic Help on Fund Distributions

When stock funds pay out cap gains, the share price goes down, such that you have the same dollar amount before and after the distribution. Dividends from bond funds are more like the interest on a savings account. Since Wellesley is about 40/60 stocks/bonds, the distributions are a bit of each. (ed...
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Basic Help on Fund Distributions
Replies: 8
Views: 288

Re: VWAHX

The portfolio page for Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund Investor lists 16.9% for the percentage of the fund's income subject to the AMT.
by rkhusky
Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWAHX [Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund]
Replies: 6
Views: 894

Re: ETF=passive, while mutual funds (including index) = acti

I imagine that Vanguard index fund managers do something to earn their pay. But, instead of trying to time the market in the search for higher returns, they look at ways to lower costs for their investors (which ultimately leads to higher returns) by managing the inflows and outflows of their funds.
by rkhusky
Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF=passive, while mutual funds (including index) = active ?
Replies: 7
Views: 764

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

The thing that Wellesley has that the 3 fund portfolio doesn't have is you will get all your income from distributions. Even at these very low rates, you will get a 3+% dididend and often 1-3% in capital gains. Your principal will not need to be touched and with a consevative AA, the liklihood of d...
by rkhusky
Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4862

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

The "dog" :?: in the TSP has been the international fund , TSP tracks the Morgan Stanley Capital International EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index while Vanguard uses FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index, Is this a meaningful difference ? TSP I Fund has no small international, no emergi...
by rkhusky
Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4862

Re: Joel Greenblatt: Market Cap weighted indexes not recomme

Large companies are all overvalued and small companies are undervalued? Doesn't make sense to me. There are large companies that are considered undervalued and small companies that are considered overvalued. And if you are investing for the long term, how do determine that a company is under/over-va...
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Joel Greenblatt: Market Cap weighted indexes not recommended
Replies: 15
Views: 2314

Re: Food stamps

Michigan recently enacted an asset test after a lottery winner continued to get food stamps.
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Food stamps
Replies: 8
Views: 1664

Re: Waitress giving me discount - ethical question

My wife has occasionally gotten a free drink at Taco Bell. And she doesn't tip anyone. They like to be extra nice to repeat customers.
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Waitress giving me discount - ethical question
Replies: 62
Views: 6626

Re: Save for down payment w/Roth TSP?

You can take a loan from your TSP account, although it is best to avoid this if you can:
https://www.tsp.gov/planparticipation/l ... sics.shtml
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Save for down payment w/Roth TSP?
Replies: 11
Views: 681

Re: 30% In International Stocks?

Just had a side question, but I'm trying to figure ifInternational are worse than US stocks outside of a tax shelter? Or the same? For my personal situation, I am in the top US tax bracket, full Medicare tax on dividends as well. I thought you get some type of foreign tax credit if you hold interna...
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30% In International Stocks?
Replies: 59
Views: 5417

Re: Father of eight hasn’t saved a penny for college

I'm sure they will likely get a good financial aid package. And think of the tax write-off that 8 kids brings.
by rkhusky
Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Father of eight hasn’t saved a penny for college
Replies: 47
Views: 2661

Re: Should I avoid buying Vanguard ETFs?

According to the latest projections (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... ins-112014), only 9 bond-related ETF's will spin off cap gains, with the largest being 0.58%.
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I avoid buying Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 12
Views: 1533

Re: Vanguard Capital Gains

I noted that Mid-Cap Growth Fund is projected to have a 12.35% cap gain. The Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund is not on the list. A good reason to have index funds in your taxable account, rather than active funds. I prefer to wait until I choose to incur the cap gains and subsequent tax hit. The same is t...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Capital Gains
Replies: 34
Views: 2562

Re: Question about my first tax loss harvest

Crow Hunter wrote:Make sure you have your dividends on that .156 shares set to go into a sweep account and not to reinvest.

Otherwise you will trigger a wash sale when VTIAX pays a dividend in December.

I just did the same thing earlier this week.


It should only be a wash of a couple of cents, not the whole loss.
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about my first tax loss harvest
Replies: 6
Views: 307

Re: Rebalancing

I check every couple of weeks and end up doing a small rebalancing move every 2-4 months.
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 551

Re: Consider freezing your credit

I leave blank the SS number entry on doctor/dentist information forms. If they ask, I tell them I prefer for them not to have it. I find it interesting that one of them came up with a number that they print on their forms that has a single digit different from what the actual number is. I suppose t...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3561

Re: Vanguard web site changes

No word as yet on whether single-use security codes will be available via email for those of us who don't have cell phones. Is that actually secure, considering that email accounts can be hacked into? I'd prefer a phone call to my home number. The security codes via email that I've used have a 10 m...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard web site changes
Replies: 51
Views: 6711

Re: Consider freezing your credit

In order to confirm your identity, some sites pull information from your credit file (e.g. the Social Security site does this to set up an account). Will one need to unfreeze the credit file in order to sign on to one of these sites? Also, do doctors/dentists access the credit file when taking new p...
by rkhusky
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3561

Re: Roth 401k or deductible 401k?

Rather than a Roth 401K, I would use a Roth IRA. After maxing Traditional 401K.
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401k or deductible 401k?
Replies: 9
Views: 974

Re: VEXAX IN ROTH

Without know how much you have in your other accounts (at a minimum, how much is in large US stocks, small US stocks, International stocks, and bonds), it is very difficult to say anything meaningful about this decision.
by rkhusky
Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEXAX IN ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 477

Re: Traders Millions By the minute

Here are a couple threads about active mutual fund manager skill:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=128212
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=126358
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Traders Millions By the minute
Replies: 44
Views: 5229

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA - some specific questions

TIAA CREF has no need to know that you are doing a backdoor Roth or that your Traditional IRA is non-deductible. You just have to be able to set up a traditional IRA and you have to be able to transfer funds from the Traditional account to the Roth account. How you fill out your tax forms is your re...
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 08, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA - some specific questions
Replies: 7
Views: 793

Re: when will self-driving cars be a reality?

Self driving on the highway - 5-10 years. Totally self-driving everywhere - 20+ years.

ourbrooks wrote: A self-driving car with a 5% error rate might literally prove fatal.

A self-driving car with a 5% error rate will prove fatal.

A self-driving car needs to have a 0.001% error rate or better.
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 08, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: when will self-driving cars be a reality?
Replies: 17
Views: 1111

Re: Traders Millions By the minute

What percentage of day traders make money? Does the show highlight any of the losers or does it just cherry pick the winners? Do you have the necessary skills, time and money to be successful day trading? There are successful active money managers, but unfortunately most of the profits they generate...
by rkhusky
Sat Nov 08, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Traders Millions By the minute
Replies: 44
Views: 5229
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