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Re: POLL: If Eligible For Social Security .....

The system is set up so the average person gets the same if you take the cash at 62 or 70. You need to decide if you (or your spouse) is going to live longer than what is expected. I agree this seems to be the way many people look at the question, but it is unfortunate. Plotting cash flows and brea...
by rkhusky
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: If Eligible For Social Security .....
Replies: 39
Views: 1486

Re: SS Strategy Metric

If both spouses live for a long time and a few other factors, you can receive more from SS by both delaying until 70. Well, that is certainly a no-brainer. That is akin to saying when the roulette wheel lands on red, always bet on red. But in the case of a higher earning spouse that is 8 years olde...
by rkhusky
Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: SS Strategy Metric

While my wife/me don't expect to live until age 100, we planned our retirement as if we would. Part of that plan also included claiming our respective SS benefits at age 70. The simple fact is we don't worry about getting our SS tax/contribution back. Money is for the living, not the dead and I'm s...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: POLL: If Eligible For Social Security .....

Curious how the spousal collecting works - meaning collecting spousal then start collecting your own? Does the spouse have to be deceased? No. The spouse can just be divorced. I plan to claim (relatively modest) divorced spouse benefits from age 66 (FRA) to age 70.... The spouse does not need to be...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: If Eligible For Social Security .....
Replies: 39
Views: 1486

Re: SS Strategy Metric

I intend to look at a range of time periods (death at 75 - 100 years) and a variety of investment return rates (1% - 8%) to see if I can eliminate some of the 11 strategies as never being optimal (and also see if there are any other strategies that may be better). I've made the first stab at this a...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: POLL: why carry cash?

I pay with cash for small purchases with a human cashier. Always credit card at machines - pay at the pump, self-service grocery & Home Depot, etc. Always cash at fast food. Always credit card at sit-down restaurants.
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: why carry cash?
Replies: 163
Views: 3888

Re: Let's say we live for 150 years...

If people are living until 150, they will probably need to work until they are 100+.
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's say we live for 150 years...
Replies: 16
Views: 2526

Re: Tried to get credit report - security questions don't ma

In order to create a Social Security online account, you have to answer security questions pulled from one of the credit bureaus. If you answer wrong twice you are locked out until you go to a SS office. Make sure you have a recent report in front of you before trying online.
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tried to get credit report - security questions don't match
Replies: 53
Views: 5942

Re: SS Strategy Metric

Exactly... We all plan here to live to 100 and conservatively take a withdrawal rate to make our money last. Social Security should be no different. The ones that take it early, basically need it now to survive, or they just don't understand retirement planning. Or are in poor health. Or have a fam...
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: "At Vanguard my voice is my password"

Can you call from any phone number? Indeed you can, I have found it most useful especially when I am overseas and need to do something that would otherwise require paperwork or medallion. Once you enter your SS# it "knows" that you are voice password enrolled and goes on to asking you to ...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "At Vanguard my voice is my password"
Replies: 24
Views: 2206

Re: Toaster Ovens

We're still using a Black & Decker I had in college 25 years ago. I had to disconnect the switch that turned it off when the door opened a few years ago, but it still works great. But it is the only one we've ever had, so I can't compare to anything else. Never had a toaster.
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toaster Ovens
Replies: 15
Views: 956

Re: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper

Over-fitting is a common problem that is routinely solved by something called "Cross Validation". I have never seen it used by financial types which is a shame since it is such a universal technique. Maybe somebody like Rodc can also comment on cross-validation? Is this really true? I wou...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper

For situations where data is limited, a standard technique is to divide your data into three sets. You train on one set, test on another, adjust parameters, repeat until the error on the test set is a minimum. Finally, you test on the third set and report the results without adjusting parameters fur...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: "At Vanguard my voice is my password"

Can you call from any phone number?
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "At Vanguard my voice is my password"
Replies: 24
Views: 2206

Re: Keep passwords in USB thumb drive: good idea?

Here's an idea- Use keypass/lastpass to store the majority of your password, but leave something extra for you to complete each time. I don't see the value of that other than keeping a casual person from using your password that is stored in plain text. Most crackers would try different variations ...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep passwords in USB thumb drive: good idea?
Replies: 43
Views: 1999

Re: Keep passwords in USB thumb drive: good idea?

If you have a Mac, you can just create an encrypted Disk Image and store your text or spreadsheet file there. You can also save the disk image on a thumb drive as a backup or for portability. I would also use a completely different password than your login password. The nice thing about an encrypted...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep passwords in USB thumb drive: good idea?
Replies: 43
Views: 1999

Re: SS Strategy Metric

The metric I use is final net worth. Maximizing SS benefits is useless if you go broke waiting to start receiving them. To evaluate a SS claiming strategy, I first project total worth as a function of age. I expect it to decrease between now and the age I start collecting SS benefits. I look first ...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: SS Strategy Metric

springnr wrote:At 70 for me, unless the market is unkind.
Around $200K is the most I will lag behind by waiting verses taking SS early.
The higher SS benefit will be nicer later in life, and if I check out early.... I won't care about the $200K so much


Does the $200K include investment return?
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates

I think including federal income, state income, SS, medicare, local income, and school district income makes the most sense if you want to see what percentage of your gross income goes to income based taxes. Distinguishing between SS income based taxes, Medicare income based taxes, and federal inco...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2137

Re: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates

I thought "effective tax rate" was income tax, in the sense of federal, state, and local income tax, and nothing else, not even other income-based taxes like Social Security and Medicare, or Friendly Neighborhood Enforcement Protection Money, or Whatever. The outcome would be cleaner if i...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 16, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2137

Re: SS Strategy Metric

Also, does/did anyone factor in that by delaying SS one could convert more tax-deferred savings to a Roth at lower rates?
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: SS Strategy Metric

Some initial calculations show that one would have to live a very long time to recoup the cost of waiting, if the rate of return is above a certain level. But perhaps if the rate of return is high enough, one does not need SS as much.
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

SS Strategy Metric

What metric do/did you use to determine which Social Security strategy to choose? Total amount received over a particular period? Total return by factoring in a particular rate of return? Factor in inflation? I now have a spreadsheet that looks at 11 taking strategies for my wife and me. I have incl...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Strategy Metric
Replies: 55
Views: 2982

Re: Options used to fund ROTH after retirement?

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p590/ch01.html#en_US_2013_publink1000230355 Here is the IRS definition for "What is compensation" It's found in T-IRA info, but Roth IRA info links to it. Partial quote: The IRS treats as compensation any amount properly shown in box 1 (Wages, tips, other c...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options used to fund ROTH after retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 544

Re: Child's Roth

Here is an article on the subject: http://fairmark.com/retirement/roth-accounts/contributions-to-roth-accounts/roth-iras-for-minors/ “Intrafamily transfers of this type can be properly viewed as excludable by a higher authority than the language of [the Internal Revenue Code] — a supposition, so obv...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Child's Roth
Replies: 27
Views: 1398

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

It would be interesting to see a histogram of peak to trough declines since the depression.
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5338

Re: Tax deductions from charities

Do the free admissions you receive for being a member count as income?

Edit: The document above indicates "no".
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax deductions from charities
Replies: 31
Views: 1634

Re: How to short?

Didn't you just author a post entitled "Worth $1.6m but clueless on investments" and now you want to try shorting stocks?

Edit: Perhaps shorting is not investing?
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to short?
Replies: 14
Views: 1092

Re: Tax audit poll

jebmke wrote: What you don't want to avoid is having to scramble around when you get their letter just to assemble the docs.


I think I would rather avoid that. :)
by rkhusky
Fri Apr 11, 2014 8:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax audit poll
Replies: 19
Views: 981

Re: How to encrypt files for backup?

Encrypted disk images (Disk Utility) on a Mac with a different password than your login password. Not sure if you can access the files on Windows though.
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to encrypt files for backup?
Replies: 22
Views: 1218

Re: Tax deductions from charities

If you are already able to itemize deductions without that gift (that is, itemized deductions are more than your standard deduction), then you will be able to deduct 100% of the gift. If your itemized deductions would be less than the standard deduction without that gift, then you will benefit from...
by rkhusky
Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax deductions from charities
Replies: 31
Views: 1634

Re: Should VG's Tax-Exempt funds be adjusted for % in your s

My state return has a spot for including other income, such as from tax exempt bonds that are not from my state. I subtract off the portion of Vanguard's returns that are from my state.
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 08, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should VG's Tax-Exempt funds be adjusted for % in your state
Replies: 4
Views: 224

Re: How is social security calculated?

sunnyday wrote:So say someone makes $50k for 20 years and has zeros for the rest.


$50K in real dollars (i.e. indexed for inflation).
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How is social security calculated?
Replies: 21
Views: 1190

Re: How is social security calculated?

Or login and get your report with estimated benefits:

http://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How is social security calculated?
Replies: 21
Views: 1190

Re: If trading is a losing game, how do you explain prop fir

EMH is folklore and true only in the limit of equilibrium (well, almost by definition true then). To you, who are slow and ungainly to see and act, the market appears in equilibrium all the time (except under extreme circumstances). To others who see and work with more detail, events happen constan...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If trading is a losing game, how do you explain prop firms?
Replies: 38
Views: 2942

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not grea

Another consideration I am struggling with is the "Foreign Tax Credit". For example, I hold DGS (Emerging Mkt Small Cap Dividend ETF) in my Roth. It is great that I do not have to pay tax on the dividend distributions but I have no way of claiming credit for all the foreign taxes that wer...
by rkhusky
Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 27
Views: 2615

Re: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA

Great. I think I've got it now. Thanks.
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 05, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA
Replies: 6
Views: 457

Re: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA

Suppose the wife had filed for her own benefits at 63, then her benefits would be reduced by 20% - $1920. The husband then files for his benefits at 62. That still equals $750 + $140 right? It's based on the PIA, not the benefit (PIA +- adjustment). If wife hasn't filed yet, can she file at FRA for ...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 05, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA
Replies: 6
Views: 457

Re: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA

Thank you. I hadn't realized that the benefit would be a blend of both and that both could be reduced by filing early.
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 05, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA
Replies: 6
Views: 457

Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA

1) You can't get a benefit as a spouse of a worker if your worker spouse is not "entitled" to his/her own old-age benefit. 3) If you apply for a benefit of either kind before FRA, you are presumed to file for the other. At FRA, you can apply for one without the other. Situation: Spouse1 i...
by rkhusky
Sat Apr 05, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse benefits when applying for SS before FRA
Replies: 6
Views: 457

Re: GPS with "favor interstates" option?

As mentioned, Garmin does not handle traffic lights well. It should be simple to add in traffic lights to the database and add a minute or so to the time estimate for each light. It won't be exact because some lights are timed, such that, if traffic is light, you don't hit many of them. But it would...
by rkhusky
Thu Apr 03, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GPS with "favor interstates" option?
Replies: 37
Views: 1338

Re: The Gap between Emerging Markets GDP and Stock Returns

Its clear where the high risk is, I'm wondering where the higher reward is going to come from, if not from economic growth. Higher expected return comes from higher risk. Nothing else. Higher risk is no guarantee of higher return. Rationale investors demand higher expected return for higher risk. B...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap between Emerging Markets GDP and Stock Returns
Replies: 7
Views: 358

Re: Municipal Bond Fund Risks

Having a whole state and its political entities all go bankrupt is close enough to an end of the world scenario. Most single state muni funds target big states. Many people use a diversified muni fund that includes all states. If the muni fund has a range of qualities ranging from BBB -> AAA, center...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal Bond Fund Risks
Replies: 7
Views: 646

Re: How/do you change asset allocation with time?

I have a linear ramp up in bonds with time, which equates to age-x.
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How/do you change asset allocation with time?
Replies: 18
Views: 1136

Re: Can I Backdoor Roth BEFORE rolling TIRA to 401k?

I'm referring to the sizable TIRA that he already owns that hasn't made it into his 401K yet. Which doesn't come into play until the conversion is made which can't be in 2013 as that year is past and the conversion hasn't been made so the soonest it could be a problem is 2014. Right, but the OP sai...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I Backdoor Roth BEFORE rolling TIRA to 401k?
Replies: 24
Views: 1173

Re: Is there ever a reason to prefer taxable over tax advant

No, you're not wrong. Traditional IRA's are taxed at withdrawal. Any earnings, dividends, etc. aren't taxed UNTIL withdrawal, though, so the money is able to compound without taxation until withdrawal, so it is a smaller bite, but it's not as if all earnings are tax free. Yes he is wrong. Earnings ...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 26, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there ever a reason to prefer taxable over tax advantaged
Replies: 48
Views: 4536

Example of efficient markets, or not?

On Wednesday, a day after Facebook announced its planned acquisition of Oculus VR for $2 billion, trading of penny stock Oculus VisionTech (OVTZ) was halted after surging almost 90% in half an hour. The Vancouver-based digital media company bears no connection to Facebook's acquisition target, but ...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Example of efficient markets, or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 641

Re: TSP Lazy Porfolio with 4 funds

Barefootgirl wrote:Is there an optimal combination (combined percentages) of TSP Funds that most closely approximates the Vanguard VTSMX (Total Stock Market Index Fund)?

Thank you, BFG


Holding the C Fund and S Fund in a 4 to 1 ratio approximates VTSMX (80% C/20% S).
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Lazy Porfolio with 4 funds
Replies: 41
Views: 4434

Re: Is there ever a reason to prefer taxable over tax advant

This Wiki article shows a specific comparison between taxable and various tax advantaged accounts: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Non-deductible_traditional_IRA Conclusion: deductible IRA is much better than taxable account. If the average tax rate on withdrawals is less than the marginal rate, the ...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there ever a reason to prefer taxable over tax advantaged
Replies: 48
Views: 4536

Re: IRS Refund Fraud

pshonore wrote: That only leaves prepaid debit cards.


Exactly. Debit cards that require no ID to use - a scammer's dream come true. (And how hard is to get fake ID, anyway, if the IRS somehow tries that?)
by rkhusky
Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Refund Fraud
Replies: 41
Views: 3184
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