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Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

Most of it is allocated to a few mega-cap stocks. That's wrong. The top ten stocks of Vanguard's Total Stock Market make up 14% of the fund. Ten is more than a few and 14% is not even close to being most. The top ten stocks are Apple Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp., Microsoft Corp., Google Inc., Johnson &a...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 53
Views: 2490

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

From the article I read recently, the suggestion was simply to sell once a year, and invest the proceeds in a new "basket" of monkey stocks. If a few merge or are taken over, so be it. If all of them merged into one, either ride it out until the end of the year or sell that one giant comp...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 53
Views: 2490

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

There are two questions: which stocks to own and how much of each stock. How do you handle inflows/outflows? Do you buy/sell based on the current weightings or do you buy/sell based on equal weighting? Do you maintain equal weighting? There are apt to be large swings in individual randomly selected ...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 53
Views: 2490

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

I can understand the mechanics of an equal weight portfolio. Would that not "overweight" (based on market cap) micro, small, and midcap stocks? And wouldn't this mean an increase in volatility compared with the overall market based on market cap? I can't believe there is a "free lunc...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 53
Views: 2490

Re: TSP G Fund Possible Changes

The issue is not how I would invest my TSP funds after the G fund stops earning interest, but a higher level trade-off: - Keep money in the TSP, only for the G Fund access vs - Roll the TSP funds to Vanguard to start Roth conversions. I do not view the G fund as so special that I would miss an oppo...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [TSP G Fund Possible Changes]
Replies: 21
Views: 959

Re: TSP G Fund Possible Changes

To me, the G Fund is supposed to be the most stable and secure part of my allocation. Knowing that someone is even considering monkeying around with it is somewhat anxiety-provoking, especially in the setting of the recent proposals to change the military retirement system. The interview and other ...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [TSP G Fund Possible Changes]
Replies: 21
Views: 959

Re: TSP G Fund Possible Changes

A similar post was just locked: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=162105&newpost=2434085 I have not seen the other thread, but this one is very useful for me. I have to decide what to do with my TSP funds. The TSP allows only two withdrawal related actions, and I have to ...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [TSP G Fund Possible Changes]
Replies: 21
Views: 959

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

By definition, any fund that is not a random equally dollar-weighted stock portfolio must be an actively managed portfolio: that also includes passive index funds since these are not random equally dollar-weighted either. For example, cap weighted index funds have more money allocated to some stock...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 53
Views: 2490

Re: TSP G Fund Possible Changes

A similar post was just locked: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=162105&newpost=2434085
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [TSP G Fund Possible Changes]
Replies: 21
Views: 959

Re: 'Randomly Selected Stocks fund' vs Market cap Index...

A randomly selected portfolio will have more small companies, which in time will likely lead to higher returns if the number of stocks is large enough, but have more fluctuation and risk. I presume the OP is assuming an equal weight strategy, which is costly to run and does not handle stock mergers/...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Randomly Selected Stocks fund' vs Market cap Index...
Replies: 2
Views: 269

Re: Converted to Roth TSP and my taxes doubled!!

Plus, not having a RMD is a good thing. In some circumstances, having an RMD is a good thing, such as if pension and Social Security are low. If one has space in low tax brackets (compared to the tax rate that was paid to invest in a Roth), then having RMD's is beneficial. Having an RMD means that ...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Converted to Roth TSP and my taxes doubled!!
Replies: 17
Views: 1539

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

Frankly, I don't know if 2008 is a good example of investing in a bear market since it recovered so quick, especially if you were a young investor with a small portfolio. Although, in the midst of the downturn, one did not know if the market was going to come back. One should not assume that the nex...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 57
Views: 3882

Re: Vanguard target fund vs age in bonds

Vanguard's TR2025 fund is 68% stock right now and the TR2030 fund is 75% stock. You could use either of these to be closer to your desired AA. If this is inside a tax-advantaged account, you can easily switch between the funds if one gets too aggressive or conservative. Note that age in bonds is a l...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard target fund vs age in bonds
Replies: 12
Views: 1383

Re: TurboTax Import Error from Vanguard: Who's Fault?

When you say last year's return, do you mean 2013 tax return that you filed in 2014 or is it 2014 tax return that you filed this year?
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax Import Error from Vanguard: Who's Fault?
Replies: 7
Views: 638

Re: Roth TSP or Regular TSP

VictoriaF did a deferred retirement. Some of her posts (such as this: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2&t=135087) may be of interest.
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth TSP or Regular TSP
Replies: 13
Views: 839

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Wash Sale in Roth IRA

House Blend wrote:That loss is now permanently gone (since the replacement shares are in an IRA), so instead of claiming a loss of $5000 on your 2015 Schedule D, you will claim only $4987.

149600*(5000/150000) ~= 4987. The point being that you are losing $13, not $400.
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Wash Sale in Roth IRA
Replies: 16
Views: 1211

Re: Contribute to Traditional IRA?

It might be worthwhile if she expects 2015 to be a down year - i.e. in the 0%, 10% or 15% bracket.
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Contribute to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 275

Re: G Fund Changes

Moving from 2020 to 2030 to avoid the G Fund would not be the best move, especially if you consider yourself risk-averse. Better to wait until the potential change takes place. Since the G Fund doesn't lose principal (unlike regular bond funds), there is no risk in waiting. If the change does take p...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [TSP G Fund Possible Changes]
Replies: 21
Views: 959

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Wash Sale in Roth IRA

The same thing happened to me. I sold about $150,000 worth of Vanguard's emerging markets and developed markets funds in my taxable account a couple weeks ago for a loss of $5000. Yesterday, the same funds in my Roth IRA reinvested a total of $400 in dividends. I would like to fix this if anything ...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Wash Sale in Roth IRA
Replies: 16
Views: 1211

Re: Roth TSP or Regular TSP

A good strategy is to max Traditional 401K and Roth IRA. Is your wife also contributing to a 401K and IRA? If you are not maxing tax advantaged accounts and current tax rate on contributions is the same as what you will pay on withdrawals, then traditional and Roth are equivalent. As a gov't employe...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth TSP or Regular TSP
Replies: 13
Views: 839

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Wash Sale in Roth IRA

I think you are grasping at straws.

It is the danger of having exactly the same fund in taxable as in a tax-advantaged account.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Wash Sale in Roth IRA
Replies: 16
Views: 1211

Re: Timing for taking RMDs

Money that you will need in 1 year should be in cash (checking, savings, CD, etc). Thanks. Is this a vote for option 2? Yes. Money that will definitely be spent in the near term for necessary or highly desired items should be in cash. If not, keep it invested in tax deferred as long as possible.
by rkhusky
Sat Mar 21, 2015 6:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing for taking RMDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1627

Re: Why I don't file early

Best to plan so that you owe taxes and file late. Scammers that use your SS to get a refund don't cost you anything other than time to get your refund.
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I don't file early
Replies: 35
Views: 3348

Re: Timing for taking RMDs

Money that you will need in 1 year should be in cash (checking, savings, CD, etc).
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing for taking RMDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1627

Re: Real worth of 1 million dollar IRA?

Social Security gets taxed too.

I think a better comparison would a specific monthly SS amount versus what one wold have to pay for an inflation adjusted SPIA, perhaps with a bit of adjustment due to only max of 85% of SS is taxed.
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real worth of 1 million dollar IRA?
Replies: 17
Views: 2001

Re: Need tax loss to offset capital gain [from property sale

Use your capital gains to buy shares of 5-10 hot stocks. If one of them hits, you can use the profits to pay your taxes. If they all tank, you have the cap losses that you wanted.
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need tax loss to offset capital gain [from property sale]
Replies: 9
Views: 460

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

Does anyone have any info that would illuminate the historical risk-adjusted performance of value index funds vs cap-weighed index funds. Just a point of terminology - I believe that many (most?) value index funds are also cap-weighted. Perhaps you meant value index vs. blend index (total index? gr...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 606

Re: How do you invest your taxable account?

I have good low cost US indexes in my 401k, so moved some of the international outside because I'd read several places that doing so provides the opportunity to take advantage of foreign tax credits that would be lost inside the 401k. However, Int'l tends to have higher dividends and a lower percen...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you invest your taxable account?
Replies: 62
Views: 5728

Re: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?

So which bond types are more susceptible to greater losses if there is a hike in interest? I currently own AGG, SHY, TLT and have a fidelity total bond mutual fund A rough estimate for expected loss in a bond fund is duration (years) x interest rate change. So if the average duration is 5 years and...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?
Replies: 58
Views: 5592

Re: Can I have a tIRA & a Roth?

If you are 50+ or will turn 50 this year, then you can contribute 6500. And if you are married, each spouse can contribute 5500 (6500), even if only one has earned income.
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I have a tIRA & a Roth?
Replies: 19
Views: 1312

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

Runalong wrote: Since we don't have tide tables for stocks, it's still a risky business, but the closest thing we have to a sure bet in stocks is "reversion to the mean".


Unfortunately, it can be difficult to determine what the future mean will be.
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 19, 2015 6:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 25
Views: 2762

Re: Robinhood Investing App

Not sure I would use a financial app named after someone famous for stealing from the rich to give to the poor, especially if I don't know their definition of rich.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood Investing App
Replies: 13
Views: 1432

Re: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio

I am suspicious of any analysis that uses a single starting and ending point.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1586

Re: Asset Allocation

None of Vanguard's target retirement funds are 100% stock.

If there is a market decline and you are 100% stock, with what do you buy stocks on the cheap?
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 1040

Re: how often do you check performance?

I compute our asset allocation every couple of weeks.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how often do you check performance?
Replies: 50
Views: 2623

Re: 3 questions on tax deferred accounts

I've seen some advice that it might be wise to drop down to 30/70 stock/bond just before retirement and then, perhaps, slowly raise the stock portion. The federal government's TSP has their target retirement funds go to 20/80 at the target retirement date and stay flat. But then, gov't workers get a...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 questions on tax deferred accounts
Replies: 4
Views: 726

Re: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx

abuss368 wrote:Sector funds are not needed. In fact, Jack Bogle has stated an investor could never own a sector fund and be just fine.

What's up with that? I just read in Money that if I invest in last year's worst performing S&P 500 sector, I could trounce the S&P 500 over time. :)
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too good to be true? vgenx or vgpmx
Replies: 25
Views: 2762

Re: ER: VTSAX vs. VBIAX

The balanced fund is doing all the rebalancing to keep the fund at 60/40. If you buy the components you would have to do that. A difference in expenses of 0.03% is about $30/year for a $100,000 portfolio.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ER: VTSAX vs. VBIAX
Replies: 12
Views: 1047

Re: Tax exempt alternative to TBMI?

There is no overlap between Total Bond Market and tax exempt bond funds, they hold completely different bonds, so you will find no equivalent in the tax exempt space to TBM. You can however find tax exempt funds that have about the same duration and and about the same quality of bonds. As others hav...
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax exempt alternative to TBMI?
Replies: 12
Views: 795

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Happened to drop some money into the 529 on the 11th.
by rkhusky
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 121
Views: 10305

Re: 401k: To Roth or Not to Roth

No one knows what the future will bring, so I think having both traditional and Roth investments is a good idea. My personal preference is to contribute to a traditional 401k and a Roth IRA. If income limits prevented the Roth IRA, then I would have both types within the 401k. Income shouldn't prev...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k: To Roth or Not to Roth
Replies: 23
Views: 1576

Re: How Confident on your Retirement Prospects? Pre-Retirees

My idea of a great retirement is that I can do pretty much what I want to do and not worry about money. A good retirement is being able to do most of what I want to do, but have to think about the cost occasionally. Excellent condition is that I could retire now and have an excellent retirement. Goo...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Confident on your Retirement Prospects? Pre-Retirees
Replies: 14
Views: 1078

Re: What percent Emerging Mkt in Total Int'l Stock Index?

This brings up an important point. People calculate characteristics of "asset classes" to four significant places, yet the basic definition of what should or shouldn't be included in any "asset class" itself is always arbitrary and imprecise. What's an "emerging market?&quo...
by rkhusky
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent Emerging Mkt in Total Int'l Stock Index?
Replies: 22
Views: 1997

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

There is a discontinuity at January 2014. That's when Mercer revised the L Funds to reflect new projection with a higher probability of future interest rate increases. For the 2050 fund F did dominate before 2014. 9%/4% F/G in 10/2013 shifted to 2%/11% in 1/2014. How much can we believe their effic...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 11, 2015 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9299

Re: If 2% is real, we are . . . . ?

tc101 wrote:You can survive on social security.

Although my last SS statement said that they would only be able to pay out 70% of my expected amount by the time I turn 70.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If 2% is real, we are . . . . ?
Replies: 63
Views: 6219

Re: When does market timing make sense?

These are turbulent times. I have significant funds in cash ready to be put to work. Rather than act now I thought I'd wait for a significant sell off in stocks (5% or so) before adding to VTSAX and conversely, wait and see if a rate hike materializes before adding to VBTLX. If neither occur by Jun...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does market timing make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 1429

Re: Advice for Parents Roth

Equity Income seems okay, you would cut the expense ratio in half, but you could have much lower expenses with Total Stock Market.
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Parents Roth
Replies: 4
Views: 335

Re: 401k: To Roth or Not to Roth

2. no pensions and non expected. 3. Longterm goal at the moment is to do a career switch around 50ish that will require going back to school and will turn into a job that will produce a third of what I make now (addictions counselor) These two additional bits of info argue more strongly for using T...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k: To Roth or Not to Roth
Replies: 23
Views: 1576

Re: 401k: To Roth or Not to Roth

If you contribute to Traditional you can contribute more because of the tax deduction savings. If your average tax rate on withdrawals is the same as for contributions, Traditional and Roth produce the same after tax results no matter the length of time or investment returns. See the second table in...
by rkhusky
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k: To Roth or Not to Roth
Replies: 23
Views: 1576
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