Bogleheads.org

[ NOTE: The date that was originally listed in the header erroneously stated that the date was April 24. Some posters pointed out that they thought the date should be the 22nd. I checked with Bill Bernstein and he confirmed that the correct date is the 22nd. I changed the thread header to indicate t...

I respect Charlie Ellis for his simple devotion to 100% Total World ETF. He said that he has enough wealth to be investing for heirs now, so at least he's consistent and his approach makes sense for him. I think Malkiel, on the other hand, is more opportunistic and recommends whatever is hot. He wen...

For a retired person more concerned with not losing money vs total return,is there any scenario where div paying consumer defensive and cons staples stocks would not hold their value more in a really bad say 5 year bear market?You can quote all the studies in the world but companies that make thing...

Since future tax policies and rates are unknown, I choose to hedge my bets. I maxed out TSP, but then I had a VG IRA for long-term growth, and when I retired I simply transferred it to the TSP G fund, which is a way to get around the TSP contribution limits.

I am also a fan of the Ws. Wellington makes up 95% of my IRA and Wellesely makes up 95% of my mother's trust fund. I also appreciate the concepts behind low-cost index funds. Here is how I look at it. ⋅ Most discussions of the advantages of low-cost index funds make the primary argument t...

I've been interested in minimalism, and followed blogs like The Minimalists, Zen Habits, and Miss Minimalist. It's very popular among young people now, especially with lack of economic opportunities, and the various bloggers do it to different extremes, from tiny houses to simple apartments to livin...

I'm in the same boat, trying to find something to complement the G fund. Right now it's Penfed CDs and ibonds in taxable, but I'd think one of the corporate bond funds would work better than TBM, since both TBM and G own Treasuries. Or you could wait until retirement and then switch out equity funds...

In the distribution phase, you're stuck withdrawing both bonds and US and international stocks together, which can lock in losses and result in reverse dollar-cost averaging, whereas if you have separate funds, you can withdraw from whichever is up and do rebalancing in the process. The other advant...

The simple and obvious way to handle the above problem is to purchase real life annuities (inflation-indexed SPIAs). But why would anyone want to handle this problem the simple and obvious way when we have all these convoluted alternatives to choose from? :P Because the "simple and obvious way...

umfundi writes. I am now a believer that you should purchase simple non-indexed SPIAs to cover your needs when you need to. Typically you cannot purchase life annuities beyond the age of 85. So if you are purchasing non-inflation indexed SPIAs and inflation accelerates after you turn 85, and if you...

For those of us who are retirees, one early retiree has kept track of survivability of various portfolios since 1994 using a 4% SWR method. In this case, BRK outperforms most other options (other than Harry Dent and Browne). It's even more impressive since most of the other portfolios had bonds to s...

There's also a good Masterpiece Theatre film called "The Way We Live Now", based on a novel by Anthony Trollope, about a railway stock mania during the Victorian era and how investing and newfound wealth and greed distorted society, and how it all vanished quickly, all of it eerily similar...

Glad to see he's becoming more Bogleheadish, since his earlier books with Ben Stein were all over the investment map, including "Yes, You Can Time The Market" and one on high-dividend strategies. They have an interesting variation on the 4% portfolio, though: start off with a 4% SWR, but t...

Another thing to notice is that the new fund invests in emerging market government bonds, not private companies, so the who gets paid first argument and corrupt corporation arguments don't really apply, as I see it. That doesn't preclude a government bond default, as happened in Russian in 1998, but...

It may make you feel better (for whatever reason) to know that each dollar you earn will not be taxed, but practically speaking I see no benefit and increased risk to 100% municipal bonds for the bond portion of your portfolio. For example, you will sleep better if someone (wrongly or rightly) anno...

Penfed 7-year CDs were yielding 6.25% as recently as 2007 and I put all my fixed income into them (apart from a TSP G fund allocation), so when they mature next year my plan is to stay in CDs, since I don't want negative returns in my fixed income portfolio, and I have inflation-protection through a...

I just can't wrap my head around annuities. For one, there's the "guarantee." Essentially, this only holds as long as the insurance company does not blow up. But what might cause an insurance company to blow up? Maybe bad investment decisions, colliding with a bad market, and too-low rese...

The author works for John Hussman, who has been crying impending market crash since 1999 at least, while feeling the heat and fleeing investors for keeping his funds hedged during the 150% recovery in stocks. The past returns of EAFE stocks are horribly skewed by the Japanese dominance and subsequen...

For your consideration, with the usual caveats (past performance, etc.): http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/ViewPost.aspx?apptype=0&PostID=2800078 That's a big caveat, with 30 years of declining interest rates and a fund with 65% in bonds. If you want the greater stability of an annu...

One problem I have with investing heavily in small caps is that you're betting a lot of money on companies you haven't heard of, and everyone seems to prefer SCV, but I don't think anybody understands what makes a small cap value or not, and why the DFA advisors say Vanguard's one isn't valuey enoug...

kenschmidt wrote:Just avoid the issue and go for the obvious choice - Sriracha

Better yet, Sriracha Lays with Olestra...so you can feel the burn at both ends.

Here's the list of funds recommended by Bill Schultheis, who created the original Coffeehouse Portfolio (although I seem to recall in his last book he advocated more of a TSM/TI/TBM approach, but I could be mistaken): http://www.coffeehouseinvestor.com/coffeehouse-beans/coffeehouse-funds/ Bill also ...

For brass tacks on floor investing, the most thorough I've seen is "Retirement Portfolios" by Michael Zwecher. It is written for financial advisers, so there's some calculus and other things over my head, but also lots of charts and guides on what to invest in, how much, and when, in order...

I think there's a youtube setting that allows you to watch videos at a lower quality. I know I had problems with youtube on the ipad because it would default to HD, which took forever to load on a slow wifi connection. My only other suggestion would be to try it on a different browser, or a phone/ta...

Anyone remember 2007? What I wouldn't have given to have my stock funds tank by 1%. Or even the non-Treasury bond funds. Investors have been spoiled by positive bond returns and capital gains for decades, a free lunch with little risk, so it can be traumatic to see actual declines. I remember having...

I have them with no issues. Avoid their sales agents--one at Best Buy signed me to a 2-year contract when I asked for month to month. Also keep in mind both Sprint and DirectTv are trying to take them over to grab the valuable bandwidth, so they may not keep providing service. To compare speeds, use...

How about: "Nobody knows what a safe withdrawal rate is. Might be 2%. Might be 4.8%. Come back in 43 years and find out." You make a calculated guess and hope the guess is right. That's why you don't use a SWR, You use a variable withdrawal rate and adjust every year! Exactly. Why not jus...

Other interesting distribution methods I've read about/considered: Gummy's Sensible Withdrawal Rate: http://www.financialwebring.org/gummy-stuff/sensible_withdrawals.htm (warning: his site is like crack for spreadsheet addicts) Floor of fixed income/pensions/annuities for basic needs and then invest...

Otar really gets it. If you are on the cusp of retiring, the books by Michael Zwecher (Retirement Portfolios) and Jim Otar are essential. Virtually no one else has a rational handle on the difference between saving/investing for retirement and spending/investing in retirement. And, we are now in th...

Isn't this where the 'regular folk' come in...buying high :confused Of course, after selling stocks low in 2007-2008 and moving into bonds. But now I'm missing out on the Great Rotation from bonds to stocks and my bond fund is being decimated (down .5% YTD), and Jeremy Grantham just wrote 'bonds? f...

There's always Vanguard's STAR fund which is approx 60/40 stock/bond w/ an ER of 0.34% https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0056&FundIntExt=INT . I've looked at STAR too. It has lots of managers and submanagers in the underlying funds, so you're not relying on one manager. The...

Actually, in William Bernstein's last book he recommends a simple TSM/TI/TBM portfolio for most investors. Bill Schultheis also switched to that approach in his last book, after recommending a slice-n-dice Coffeehouse Portfolio earlier. I find that reading any of Mr. Bogle's books helps me stay comf...

Does not seem like their is a good retail instrument to capture the potential returns CCF. As far as Vanguard precious metals, this fund has had long periods of poor return, but when it goes up it really does. At some point 10k turned into about 50k over the last 10 years. Not sure how it fits into...

Well, Roger Gibson has been studying the diversifying benefits of commodities since 1998. How many of us invested in REITs, ibonds, or TIPS prior to the 2000 crash? Are those not fads just because they have been highly profitable? I think most of us did similar performance-chasing in the 2000s after...

Quote all the academic jargon you wish from years ago when global interest rates were much higher,I don't see this Vanguard news as anything to write home about. The bond funds I already use hold 4,000 securities in aggregate. How much more fixed income diversification do you need? Anyway, I would ...

That's exactly what we are doing with my wife's profit sharing account because all the other options are higher fee active funds. The only drawback as such is that Wellington is pretty concentrated large cap on the equity side so if you wanted to balance it you might pick something like the Vanguar...

I wouldn't call it a bond bubble, or speak of a bond collapse. The charts show a slow decline of interest rates over 30 years, so if and when the trend reverses upwards, there will be capital losses, and capital gains in bond funds are probably less likely to happen. Some will eventually switch to C...

Or how about compromising between a total market approach or overweighting small value: divide the investment between SP500 and Extended Market index to make a market weight, as the TSP does in its Lifestyle funds. The VG charts show that the Extended Market index has beaten the Small Value Fund ove...

I like Rick's recommendation for balance, perhaps with the basic needs floor comprised of a mix of TIPS and annuities. I think Zvi Bodie has mentioned that as well recently, with the decline in TIPS rates. That also gives you inflation protection above the stock allocation. Rick is also right about ...

Interesting article, in shifting thoughts away from the traditional stocks/bonds allocation that people use to adjust risk. Instead, he advocates annuities balancing out the risk of stocks and providing a relatively safe floor, which would allow a higher stock allocation (a big step, considering how...

I've often wondered if there is a sort of "sweet spot" for equity allocation that is optimal for risk-adjusted expected portfolio returns. It seems that you get a lot of bang for the buck when you begin adding some equities to your portfolio but that after 20% - 25% the benefit starts tai...

Doesn't this tell all we need to know ? [img_resize=80:2qw6ydme]https://static.vgcontent.info/ret/hnw/web/images/ContentLibrary/Bond_investing_in_the_70s_and_80s1.jpg[/img_resize:2qw6ydme] No it doesn't tell us all we need, because it omits the period of high, unexpected inflation in 1972-73, which...

Well, I sure hope Mr. B. doesn't want to be taken literally 'cause if he does he's gonna put some investors in quite a fix (to take 3 examples): 1. If you don't "peek," on what basis do you rebalance? 2. If you don't " peek," how will you know if you've maintained your age in bo...

I had Wellesley in a taxable account, and it's a double-edged sword--on the one hand I wanted the high yield and for the success of the fund's active management reflected in gains. On the other hand, it was shocking at distribution time to see the distributions that would be taxable at the same time...

I'd compromise and put bonds in tax-deferred accounts, where increased interest rates will be rolled over into higher yields and a higher rate of compounding--there's a VG article you can search on that shows that increasing interest rates actually grow faster for a reinvested bond fund than decreas...

A pension is comparable to an annuity. They may not be terribly popular, and investments could theoretically provide much more over time if left to grow and are withdrawn sensibly, and both have some isolated risk of failure by the companies that fund them, but they give peace of mind and certainty....

I'll take the bet, by putting my 6.25% Penfed CDs that mature next January against TBM. Maybe my TSP G fund might beat it also, but I can at least be sure of a positive return for the year. There's nothing wrong with not wanting to get out of an obviously overvalued asset class--witness large growth...

Fidelity can use the lower index fund expenses as a loss leader, to get people into their company and then push higher-cost products. I went with my sister to visit one of their financial advisors to invest an inherited IRA, and he gave her a fancy printout of a suggested asset allocation consisting...

As always, the 4% SWR passionate discussions are rather academic, because few people probably withdraw that way, with a starting amount increased for inflation every year. In lean years people probably cut back expenses to lower their needed withdrawals, and then spend more when their portfolios are...

Thanks to John, Dave, and SpringMan (6 posts from them so far). John and Dave offer good advice on both sides of the indexing vs. active management argument. I like SpringMan's advice to diversify by making my IRA a two-fund portfolio with both of them. Since Wellesley can get up to 40% stocks, whe...