Bogleheads.org

I guess I distinguish between investing in the total stock market index vs.total bond market index. In total stock market the more successful companies in market cap become a larger part of the index. I am ok with that. With total bond market the most needy (i.e. least successful) aka US govt bonds ...

Although many financial gurus do think diversifying using international is a good idea I haven't heard one say to do it in a big way. So if that is the case I again say why bother. Ric Edelman (who I'm not all that crazy about) says exactly what John Bogle says and that is no more than 20% and Dave...

I'm a little confused as to how I can withdraw 4-5% (inverse 25-20 times) with no stocks and still have that money last. For example for a 4% inflation adjusted withdrawal rate and 0% stocks, the Trinity study shows only a 52% success rate for 25 years and a 19% success rate for 30 years. For 5% inf...

Everyone on this thread spends time and energy trying to help a friend of the OP. Would the OP's friend even take time to read these posts if the OP showed them to him? I doubt it. It might cut into his time doing fun things.

Thank you. Very helpful.

"I don't understand how Vanguard's calculator can show such a markedly higher portfolio survival rate particularly at lower equity levels." It is due to their definition of "bonds". Not sure that is the explanation. From 1926-1975 Vanguard used High Grade Corporate debt and sinc...

Well, you need to read whatever actual study you are interested in. My impression it is usually the withdrawal rate that gives an acceptable risk of "portfolio exhaustion," running out of money. Notice by the way, that the assumption is that the 4% is the withdrawal rate for the first yea...

Beware the recency effect. We have had a 30 year bull market in bonds.

What's the bond equivalent of the PE10 rule?

Wouldn't a 10 yr treasury 2% yield translate into the inverse of PE10 for bonds?

Why isn't there a rule for bonds too?

Fundtalker, Just plug your assumptions into a Monte Carlo simulation. It contains thousands of historical scenarios. Use a 20 year period and your withdrawal rate and see what it gives you using differing equity allocations. I have never seen in my situation where 100% equities has the highest succe...

No downside. I've been using it for 4 months. No problems.

I think that Penfed now has another card with an annual fee that may be worth looking at too.

For the zillionth time..no one knows what the markets will do in the future astoundingly even David Stockman.

Even if one were to ignore age in bonds, MPT, Graham's 25%, etc.... even Monte Caro simulation says: Per Vanguard's nestegg retirement calculator... survival of a $1 million portfolio at a 4% ($40,000) withdrawal over 50 :D years at 100% stocks =75%, at 75% stocks=77%. My advice to you, get a new ad...

From Troysapp, "Hi All, Most everything I've read suggests an equity allocation of no greater than 30 percent foreign (presumably for US investors). Why is this when over half of the investable equity market is outside the US? Does the rather consistent 30 percent limitation result from anticip...

10% Other are commodities.

Shouldn't you have asked this question before you bought it, not after the fact?

Actually Ben Stein's book on retiring comfortably advocated 50% VTI and 50% total bond market as the recommended holding for retirees. Maybe he's getting a bad rap here. He sounds like a Boglehead to me.

Bengen advocated relatively high equity holdings in order for a portfolio to be able to support a 4.2% withdrawal rate. During the 08/09 meltdown, I read that he panicked and bailed on stocks. I'm glad I'm not one of his clients.

It's no fun watching this train wreck over the past few years. It's even less fun to have endured the past 11 years. It seems evident to me that we all are going to have to prepare our portfolios and ourselves for a fairly long-running period of slow to minimal growth, along with uncertain interest...

Lock in the historically low interest rates. Buy now.

I think you use sales orders. If you have QB make a copy of your company file then enter dummy transaction to see if it works.

If he's "underweight" U.S. Treasuries that means at one time (last year?) he had more than he has now. So he must have sold them to get underweight in U.S. Treasuries. When you sell a security you are "going short" that security. not really. He exchanged treasuries for other sov...

Maybe I missed it but I never see any mention of the impact of state taxes on the SS withdrawal decision. My state exempts SS from taxation. This factor would call for taking SS earlier as opposed to having to pay state taxes on an IRA withdrawal as a result of having deferred SS.

jh wrote:Who wishes they bought some gold now? I do.

The permanent portfolio devotees were right. People like myself that mocked the idea of buying gold were wrong.

The very fact of you posting this is a good contrarian indicator that gold's run is over.

statsguy wrote:Weiner or Wiener? I try to call him DW since I can never remember.

From the website
Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors

i before e except after c

Just hit balls at the range. It's a lot cheaper, you'll get better and when the time comes when you're ready to play you'll be ready.

I'd like to buy Gundlach for what he's worth and sell him for what he thinks he's worth.

Bogle capitalizes social security/pension income as a bond when advocating age in bonds. I saw an article within the last year where he continued to do so. He gave an example of SS having a capitalized value for an individual of say $300k. If their portfolio was also $300k and the individual was 70 ...

The recency bias plus herd behavior comes into play also. Since it has been going down, it will continue to go down. So when S&P goes to 666, there's a chorus screaming that it's going to say 333. You already endured a 50% hit and can't bear the thought of losing another 50%. Your post is Spockl...

Opponent Process wrote: I'm pro-death and I think there are at least a few other Bogleheads who feel the same way. I think there are much more productive uses of capital than keeping someone so old and diseased alive. the concept of spending hard-earned money accumulated over a lifetime on something...

The components of a portfolio are not supposed to be necessary correlated. So it's good when one part zigs and the other part zags. Look at the overall results not the results of each component.

Well, if you're willing to suffer the ups and downs, why would anyone opt for less than 100% in equities. It pays out while you're alive, then pays your heirs very nicely too. Don't get me wrong, I'm 69% in fixed right now, and I plan on staying heavy into fixed now that I'm in the withdrawal years...

Tuxx wrote:75% cash, 15% ETF AGG, 10% oil, gold/silver miners and tobacco stocks.

Will keep this allocation for some time.

too bad you missed the 100% runup in stocks over the last 2 years.

She's generally right. I'm not seeing from the chart that much has happened since her prediction . Just normal fluctuation. From reading some of these posts, I was expecting the chart to show some massive move but it just normal fluctuation. What's the big deal? I don't think at this point, that she...

SSSS wrote:I didn't know the US had a Peso.

They are implying that the US $ is as bad as the Mexican peso (which the way things are going, may be an insult to the Peso)

[In this prevention is the key, and the proposed cutting $648 million from nuclear nonproliferation activities is not helpful.[/quote]

You're assuming that the $648 million would accomplish something. Nuclear nonproliferation activities having been going on for decades with little to show for it.

Les,

Awesome chart. Thank you.

Do we go the way of the 32/82 lows and reach nirvana?

or the 74 lows and look at 5 years of despair?

Stay tuned.

Can someone explain to me how owning an index fund is somehow seen as freeloading? Doesn't the index fund have to buy individual stocks just like any other fund? The difference being that the index fund buys these individual stocks on the basis of market weight as opposed to a different fund buying ...

"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind."
Dr. Seuss

I'll bite. Assuming you guys are serious......whenever markets barely move and it's the end of a quarter yet your well diversified fund drops an inordinate amount then it is a distribution.
It happens quarter after quarter, year after year.

I follow Swensen's pure bond approach: 1/2 TIPS and 1/2 Intermediate Term Treasuries. TIPS protect against inflation, Teasuries protect against deflation.
In this approach you only have, interest rate risk and avoid credit risk, etc.

Although I am not a golfer, I believe buying the market is like hitting par every time you play a golf course. Mmmm, maybe more like getting a bogey on each hole. I would definitely settle for that! No, the market is par. More like shooting par everytime with indexing. Besides what's wrong with get...

Buffett didn't become a billionaire by investing in index funds. In fact, Buffett didn't become a billionaire by being a stock picker. He became a billionaire because he owns an insurance company. The key to his comment is "For a great majority of investors". He didn't say "For All i...

Also, VWO has 18.6% in China. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0964&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab%3A2 I think he's saying it should be 10% of the world equity market instead of the 2.7% currently. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0628&FundIntExt=INT#his...

Been to Eureka College and went to the Ronald Reagan museum there. My favorite weatherman is Tom Skilling on WGN Chicago. Speaking of weather, we have a state of emergency with Lake Effect snow, winds up to 30 mph and roads closed. Ed Maybe Tom Skilling's brother, Jeffrey, should have gone into met...

Gold is being bought as a currency substitution not an inflation protector. The US $ is being depreciated from endless $ printing due to vast deficits, QE 1, QE2, etc..

DASH_Dieter wrote:

The best book I've seen on long term returns

I was hoping for a web link to some reliable data.
I don't really need a book.

Perhaps someone tell me the 50-year cost-adjusted return on stocks, commodities and real estate?

[/quote]

Have you tried Googling for the info?

Munchkin Man,

Have you ever seen the Seinfeld episode, The Jimmy? Jimmy keeps referring to himself in third person just like the Munchkin Man. You may find it amusing.

I've been driving 46 years now, and only needed a tow once when I was 19, driving a '57 Chevy that broke down out of town, but a fraternity brother came and towed me for free. I think modern cars are very reliable, and everyone has a cell phone, and we have Google Maps, so I don't see a need for AA...