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Re: How to pay to a non-business in the UK?

Does the global non-profit have a presence in the US or a website through which donations could be made? Are the pending credit card charges disappearing due to the bank's fraud operations or for some other reason? I would have thought paypal to be an easier method than a wire transfer, especially i...
by richard
Sun Dec 21, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay to a non-business in the UK?
Replies: 6
Views: 398

Re: Do I Pay Cash for my home?

What, exactly, is the criticism?

There are many misconceptions are housing and paying for it. It's hard to deal with issues if you don't tell us what they are.

BTW, diversification is good and rentals are not diversified investments.
by richard
Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I Pay Cash for my home?
Replies: 33
Views: 2266

Re: Contribute to rollover IRA?

Agreed with placeholder that your exception<> is generally not true. I don't care about this. I only mentioned it because Vanguard, Fidelity, etc., etc., mention it. Other than asset protection, any other downsides? I would not recommend contribution to rollover IRA for asset protection perspective...
by richard
Sun Dec 21, 2014 5:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Contribute to rollover IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 468

Re: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?

Swenson wrote two books, one for individuals and one for institutions (Pioneering Portfolio Management). The recommendations are different, due to different horizons, different investment opportunities, etc. He recommends treasuries as they tend to do better in down markets or deflation (or very low...
by richard
Sat Dec 20, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2925

Re: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?

"Estimated dividend amounts are as of November 30, 2014". The estimates are for about 60 days, but the actual dividends were for about 79 days.
by richard
Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1289

Re: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?

The dividend for my VTSAX in taxable also posted this morning. It was visible on the website much earlier than the time of the original post.

Take another look and, if it's not there, you might consider calling.
by richard
Sat Dec 20, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1289

Contribute to rollover IRA?

Is there any downside to making new contributions to a rollover IRA (rather than open a separate IRA) other than that you wouldn't be able to move funds from the rollover IRA to a new employer's 401(k)?
by richard
Sat Dec 20, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Contribute to rollover IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 468

Re: Any negative outlooks on healthcare industry's future

I'm not very well versed in anything investment related. I'm curious if you could give me an example of how competition is imperfect? Also, Your last sentence, what do you mean by "behave like the rest of the market"? More balanced? Thank you dos by cuatro! If you compete with doctors wit...
by richard
Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any negative outlooks on healthcare industry's future
Replies: 49
Views: 2948

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

Very nice post. Choosing assets with low correlations is a very common dream. Why would one assume that one can do better than the market portfolio? The market portfolio is the result of, among other things, a search for the ideal mix of correlations among assets. The entire MPT model assumes varian...
by richard
Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 52
Views: 3677

Re: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French

Tilting to small and value can't be a good thing for everyone, at least not if you believe markets are reasonably efficient. Obviously everyone can't tilt in the same direction and, if markets are reasonably efficient, they shouldn't. Why would tilting be better for those with a long horizon than ju...
by richard
Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French
Replies: 15
Views: 930

Re: Vanguard's economic and investment outlook [2015]

" Nascent wage pressures should build in the United States in 2015 and beyond" I'm often amused that people getting raises is usually considered as a negative, leading to increased inflation, especially in papers that note fiscal drag as harmful to growth under current conditions. It's my ...
by richard
Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's economic and investment outlook [2015]
Replies: 21
Views: 2912

Re: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French

If CAPM is a better model of risk than FF, it might make sense to tilt to small and value, as CAPM does not do as good a job at explaining small and value returns as FF. In other words, small and value might produce better risk adjusted returns in this case. If FF is a better model of risk than CAP...
by richard
Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French
Replies: 15
Views: 930

Re: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French

If CAPM is a better model of risk than FF, it might make sense to tilt to small and value, as CAPM does not do as good a job at explaining small and value returns as FF. In other words, small and value might produce better risk adjusted returns in this case. If FF is a better model of risk than CAPM...
by richard
Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French
Replies: 15
Views: 930

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

Investing in individual companies is riskier than investing in a more diversified portfolio. Finance theory includes that you should not expect to be compensated for a risk that you could have diversified away. You should invest in individual stocks if you are better than the market at valuing stock...
by richard
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 57
Views: 5247

Re: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" pa

I never understood the fascination of looking at past price multiples. By the time the data is calculated it is months old and may no longer reflect current expectations. Looking at historical data of forward P/E ratios provides more insight as it shows what people were willing to pay for growth at...
by richard
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 900

Re: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?

<>It depends what you mean by "fair". Insurance companies deserve a profit for the work they do and for the risk they take. The Treasury could price in risk and expenses, but could afford to be risk neutral, and try to avoid profit. Also there is credit risk when buying from an insurance ...
by richard
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?
Replies: 31
Views: 2401

Re: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?

<>For a true hedge, look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-Coupon_Inflation-Indexed_Swap or other derivatives. I don't know how practical it is for an individual investor to use these. There might also be counterparty risk. At the right price, I'd like to use derivatives to protect against very ...
by richard
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?
Replies: 31
Views: 2401

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

The virtue of the article is that it demonstrates that things can easily go contrary to what we hope over a 5 year period. The problem with the article is that it implies that if we wait long enough, things will certainly be fine. Many people don't have a 45 year time frame and might want to take th...
by richard
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2610

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Scary!!! Or am I wrong? After reading the article I can only conclude that to assure succeed in the stock market, meaning that it will follow the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis for what Bogleheads based their strategy, may require too long of a time period. The article shows that ...
by richard
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2610

Re: help! suspicious call asking about my SS application

I called SSA and they said they do have people working at home one day a week processing online applications. Also the person emailed me after the call, the address said ssa.gov and seemed pretty official. Damn, I wanted to talk too but didn't want to do something stupid. Been hearing a lot about I...
by richard
Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: help! suspicious call asking about my SS application
Replies: 12
Views: 1423

Re: Getting upgraded to Voyager Select

The best course would be to call Vanguard when you are above the threshold.
by richard
Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting upgraded to Voyager Select
Replies: 2
Views: 744

Re: Geek to Geek, screen scraping dividends

I find the easiest way to get financial data from yahoo is to download a csv file. Here's a sample url: http://download.finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=^DJI,^GSPC,VTI&f=sl1d1t1c1ohgv&e=.csv You can choose which data to download by playing with the letters after the ampersand. For sites that...
by richard
Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Geek to Geek, screen scraping dividends
Replies: 10
Views: 1288

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

<>Pure genius how he opens some college group discussions with his "genetic lottery" tale. "Imagine some Genie comes to you before birth, and asks you to design the rules of the world you will live in, BUT: you you must throw your DNA pill back into the bucket and draw again, not kno...
by richard
Thu Dec 11, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8136

Re: Different Experience With TSA Pre-Check

I wasn't even aware of the program. I don't fly that much for work, I did a bit more when I was in my 20s but it's been less and less over the years. Anyway, my wife and I and our two children fly to Florida around the same time every year for our annual vacation. This year we were directed to the ...
by richard
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Different Experience With TSA Pre-Check
Replies: 35
Views: 2812

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

Valuethinker wrote:<>Investment responds to demand: there are decades of econometric studies showing that, I believe.<>

No, no. Investment responds to the confidence fairy. Just ask your PM and Chancellor.

:P
by richard
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2552

Re: Different Experience With TSA Pre-Check

You can look up online whether or not there will be a separate pre-check line. http://www.tsa.gov/tsa-precheck/tsa-pre ... s-airports

Having pre-check on your boarding pass and using a pre-check airline and airport is not a guarantee of expedited pre-check, but it's a rather good indication.
by richard
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Different Experience With TSA Pre-Check
Replies: 35
Views: 2812

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

<>Isn't the admonition to "read Mandelbrot" an appeal to authority?<> No. It's an admonition to learn the rationale and evidence for a particular viewpoint. There's a difference between "it's right because M said so" and "it's right for the reasons explained by M".
by richard
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22320

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

<>I don't pretend to know the "right" amount of CAPEX for the energy sector, but it has increased as a portion of our total and just in nominal terms. It's not really far-fetched, but that doesn't mean it's correct either. The sector also makes up a large portion of the high-yield debt ma...
by richard
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2552

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

One potential reason: falling oil prices contribute to deflation -- and deflation is bad for the stock market. Deflation is so dangerous, the Fed's main mission is to protect against it. And the Fed sure has been fighting hard to protect against deflation in recent years. In fact, it's probably acc...
by richard
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2552

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

There is a broader concern that's not about only oil, but is (arguably) indicated by oil. A lot of people believe that liquidity stimulus (like QE, expanding the money supply, etc) encourages and ultimately creates malinvestment/overproduction/whatever you want to call it. Ultimately the producers ...
by richard
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2552

Re: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market

<snip>Another thing to consider, though, is that low oil prices could be the symptom, not the disease. The disease could be weak demand in general. If demand for goods across the economy is falling, then demand for oil would fall as well, leading to lower oil prices. Perhaps it is that weak demand ...
by richard
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Falling Oil Prices Bad for the Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 2552

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

We should be mindful of the difference between the returns investor expect and the historic record. If investors did not expect equities to return more than bonds, they wouldn't buy equities, given the bonds are riskier (no contractual right to payment, no built-in stabilizing mechanism, etc.). That...
by richard
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22320

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

>>I tilt, and I think everyone should. The edge is small but it's there, and it's not really that hard or that expensive to do it.>> For those who checked this, please explain how it is possible for everyone to tilt. The only portfolio everyone can hold is the market portfolio. If one person tilts i...
by richard
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8778

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

It's not just that the underlying distributions of financial returns are unknown, but also that it's quite improbable that the distributions are stable over time , as pointed out by William Sharpe. The ice starts to get pretty thin pretty fast when we start applying tricky statistical analyses to f...
by richard
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22320

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

One additional question not asked as of yet... I have all of the dividends from my taxable accounts deposited into my checking account each month/quarter. This reduces my need to tap principle in my investment accounts. In looking at 25 years of safe assets, should one consider your annual need fro...
by richard
Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7921

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

In other words, if you have enough set aside in very safe assets to provide for your expenses until approximately age 100 (aka liability matching portfolio), then you can do whatever you want with the rest, including putting all of the excess into equities. I'm concerned that people who don't have e...
by richard
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7921

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

If you say that the past tells you nothing about the future, I wonder how you can justify investing in stocks at all. It's safer to just own TIPS. At least three reasons: - Diversification - Possibility of higher return. Stocks are riskier (don't have the built-in stabilization of bonds, no obligat...
by richard
Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22320

Re: Intuit TurboTax 2014 Basic/Deluxe $0, Premier $9.99

I think the OP is posting a link obtained from from another company or perhaps saved from last years vanguard flagship offer. Now that it's obvious the link was not supposed to be accessed directly by the general public, let's talk about whether it was ethical to do so. Suppose another organization...
by richard
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Intuit TurboTax 2014 Basic/Deluxe $0, Premier $9.99
Replies: 49
Views: 3893

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

The research you cite is based on numerous assumptions which may or may not turn out to be true. I wouldn't place a whole lot of faith in its predictive ability.
by richard
Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2716

Re: Real Return/Risk Assumptions

<>I am in no way an authority but I would use equity in the range of 4-7% and intermediate Treasuries of 0.5-1%, but that is just my take away from reading this forum and having an old brain that "misremembers" things with increasing frequency. 10 year TIPS are now yielding 0.5% real. Tha...
by richard
Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return/Risk Assumptions
Replies: 5
Views: 643

Re: Intuit TurboTax 2014 Basic/Deluxe $0, Premier $9.99

Interesting if I use the link from OP I get the 9.99 which I bought promptly. After that when I goto turbotax.com I get the 9.99 deal. If I use chrome in incognito mode and goto tubotax.com I get the normal pricing. Go figure, must be some tracking cookie. The link in the OP downloads a tracking co...
by richard
Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Intuit TurboTax 2014 Basic/Deluxe $0, Premier $9.99
Replies: 49
Views: 3893

Re: Interest Rates — How Low, For How Long?

Most economists expected longer-term rates to rise as the Fed's purchases were reduced. Instead, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has declined from around 3% late last year to about 2.3% today (chart below). What happened? QE was stimulative, that is, it increased economic growth. Stronger economi...
by richard
Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates — How Low, For How Long?
Replies: 14
Views: 1684

Re: Fly or drive? Not just time vs. money anymore

As others have said, a lot comes down to personal preference. How is your baby in the car? How well do you think he/she'll do on a plane? Also, consider safety. Flying is safer per mile than driving. But is your baby more likely to get sick flying especially this time of year? If you're child is un...
by richard
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly or drive [with a newborn]?
Replies: 58
Views: 4579

Re: Fly or drive? Not just time vs. money anymore

Driving is much more dangerous than flying. You stand a much higher chance of injury or death from an auto accident than from a plane crash. I was going to bring this up, as well. If you're factoring potential health impacts of flying with a bunch of people, you have to also factor in the significa...
by richard
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly or drive [with a newborn]?
Replies: 58
Views: 4579

Re: Interest Rates — How Low, For How Long?

All else being equal, higher GDP growth should lead to higher interest rates. All else being equal, higher interest rates lead to lower GDP growth. All else being equal, more capital looking for a place to invest leads to lower rates. I dont' see how you can ignore monetary policy, or fiscal policy ...
by richard
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates — How Low, For How Long?
Replies: 14
Views: 1684

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

A lot of financial models are constructed using simplifying assumptions to make things easier. Using a normal distribution is a prime example. Perhaps the classic example is using volatility (std dev) as a proxy for risk. Assuming a stable (or at least predictable) underlying distribution seems nece...
by richard
Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22320

Re: Fly or drive? Not just time vs. money anymore

Driving is much more dangerous than flying. You stand a much higher chance of injury or death from an auto accident than from a plane crash.
by richard
Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly or drive [with a newborn]?
Replies: 58
Views: 4579

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I am saying that many people in this thread have prejudged the field of financial econometrics and its possible relevance to individual investors. One of the issues raised in this thread is whether the underlying distribution of returns is stable. For example, we could be seeing varying returns due...
by richard
Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22320

Re: Someone explain why bond funds are "safe?"

If one wants a different point of view, most any withdrawal model for retirement will show that at moderate withdrawal rates the sure fire way to run out of money before the end of a long period of time is to have too much in bonds and too little in stocks. So are bonds "safe"? Note the O...
by richard
Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Someone explain why bond funds are "safe?"
Replies: 33
Views: 2643
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