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Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

My concept of resemblance is not HOW CLOSELY but HOW MEANINGFUL. If your son has two eyes and one nose he resembles you. But if he is a spitting image of the milkman, a superficial resemblance is of little consequence. Victoria Predicting the future via backtesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9686

Re: Comcast Performance 25 Mbps vs Blast 105 MBps

I just did a speed test on my current Verizon service. REsults: 6.47 Mbps Down, 0.72 Mbps Up. I have tons of music but don't use the cloud. I usually stream video and from time to time it hangs up. Most of the time it is fairly smooth. I only occasionally download video. I don't game. I assume 25 Mb...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comcast Performance 25 Mbps vs Blast 105 MBps
Replies: 17
Views: 1979

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

If you don't know what asset returns are going to be, what is your alternative to simulation? Historical Backtesting seems the Best we've got! Historical backtesting assumes that the future will be exactly like the past. A Monte Carlo simulation that fits a distribution to historical data assumes t...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9686

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I don't like the term "tilting". Its just some fancy word for asset allocation. +1. The way I understand tilting, that is how I view it as well. Larry, if I understand him properly, makes the argument that by tilting you can reduce your overall equity allocation and get similar overall re...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8760

Re: We cut the (Cable/Satellite TV) Cord!

I like sports, and I like watching them at home. Not interested in going to a sports bar or a friend's house every time I want to watch a game. For serious sports fans, I can understand that cable is still relevant. I get why you don't want to watch the Superbowl days after you already know the sco...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We cut the (Cable/Satellite TV) Cord!
Replies: 45
Views: 4350

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

BahamaMan wrote:
Beliavsky wrote:If you don't know what asset returns are going to be, what is your alternative to simulation?


Historical Backtesting seems the Best we've got!


Or maybe a working crystal ball from Amazon is just as good.

Recognition of the inherent flaws is the first step towards making progress.
by protagonist
Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9686

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I think the first thing to ask is whether you think the Monte Carlo studies are meaningful. I would say that Monte Carlo studies would be especially relevant to people living in Monaco. :mrgreen: That was protagonist's point. I think I should start playing Russian Roulette. Victoria Oh, so the orig...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9686

Re: Comcast Performance 25 Mbps vs Blast 105 MBps

Odd. Those 12 month prices are significantly below, what I was offered by comcast just a month ago as a new customer. They offered me 50mpbs service for 29/month for 12 months or 25mbps for a little less. I went with the 50mbps plan which will cost 64/month after the 12 month period expires. I'm in...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comcast Performance 25 Mbps vs Blast 105 MBps
Replies: 17
Views: 1979

Comcast Performance 25 Mbps vs Blast 105 MBps

I'm thinking of switching to Comcast as my internet provider.

They offer a Performance package (25Mbps) for $40/mo for 12 mos. promotion and a Blast package for $55/mo for 12 mos promotion.

Would I notice a difference? Is it worth the extra $15/mo for the faster service?

Thanks.
by protagonist
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comcast Performance 25 Mbps vs Blast 105 MBps
Replies: 17
Views: 1979

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

if I'm doing the math right, says that for a "healthy annuitant"--which seems fairly reasonable for the Bogleheads population, which I imagine consists of people whose socioeconomic status allows for significant retirement savings--the figures are actually 12% for men and 20% for women. T...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9686

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

An 18th and 19th option that might be interesting to see re: poll results would be: "My decision as to whether or not to tilt has (has not) been influenced by these poll results". It would be interesting to see what percentage of responders base their investment decisions on popularity pol...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8760

Re: do people still steal portable GPSs from cars?

I had someone steal the charging cord when I left that in the car without the GPS, but I think I might have left the car unlocked (in our driveway). Anyway, I always put it out of sight, but don't really worry about leaving it in the car. That's interesting. When I park in NYC I hide my GPS, Sirius...
by protagonist
Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: do people still steal portable GPSs from cars?
Replies: 13
Views: 1943

Re: We cut the (Cable/Satellite TV) Cord!

Just a topic to discuss what people (who watch some TV) are doing to avoid the increasingly exorbitant fees charged by Cable/Satellite TV providers. We cut the cord last week. Though I'm not much of a TV watcher, my wife is, so this decision was resisted for a long time. Old setup Primary TV: Direc...
by protagonist
Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We cut the (Cable/Satellite TV) Cord!
Replies: 45
Views: 4350

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VictoriaF wrote:
mickeyd wrote:Why do we keep digging up this old dog?


Long threads strengthen the sense of community.

Victoria


That's what Ariadne said.
by protagonist
Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189161

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds

Bogleheads, In light of the inflation picture and prospects, and the challenging environment for TIPS funds over the past few years, what are your thoughts on this asset class? Are you considering staying the course, adding this asset class, or have you previously moved out of TIPS funds? Any recen...
by protagonist
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 2885

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

It of course depends on how you define a black swan. Does it matter what you call it? Anyway, to put things in perspective, oil never hit $50/barrel until around 2005-2006. That was only about 8 or 9 years ago. I think it was around $12/barrel around 1998-1999. http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/In...
by protagonist
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 90
Views: 8064

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

Lower gas prices may cause some of our small energy companies to go out of business And allow other companies to prosper due to markedly reduced fuel costs. I heard a news report today that Sen. Charles Schumer is trying to push a federal probe into why airlines continue to raise ticket prices in t...
by protagonist
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 90
Views: 8064

Re: Your opinion of a Financial Advisor

Ugh. So why do you want to do it? Sounds crazy based on your description. Protagonist - you might not have noticed this is a 5-year-old thread, resurrected by the OP who came back to let us know that he decided not to become a financial advisor and is instead living happily among us as a CPA . (smi...
by protagonist
Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your opinion of a Financial Advisor
Replies: 26
Views: 4952

Re: Your opinion of a Financial Advisor

I am currently thinking about interviewing for a financial advisor position. After reading up on the job, I feel as if it is all about forcing friends, family, and etc. into buying the products your firm is selling. I believe that if I were to accept such a job I would disagree on the strategy and ...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your opinion of a Financial Advisor
Replies: 26
Views: 4952

Re: New Rate - 1 year Penfed MM Certificate

Anyone who's interested in a 1 year Penfed MM Certificate may want to take a look. The 1 year rate - 1.10% - is now higher than anything until the 5 year certificate. I just bought me one with money waiting in my share account for the Dec-Jan sale. Maybe this is it. :happy Or you can accept 0.09% l...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Rate - 1 year Penfed MM Certificate
Replies: 14
Views: 2088

Re: Selling FFNOX and buying components- tax implications

Thanks for your help. I am aware of the advantages of taking some capital gains at 0% but I am reluctant to do so as it would potentially render me ineligible for Obamacare, depending on how Obamacare income is calculated. So I am just sitting on my gains for now until eligible for Medicare. Offsett...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling FFNOX and buying components- tax implications
Replies: 4
Views: 409

Re: Selling FFNOX and buying components- tax implications

Large gains. Wash sale rules would not help me. I just figured I might be able to shave a bit off management fees and take more control over my investments if I could do so without paying out the nose in tax.
by protagonist
Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling FFNOX and buying components- tax implications
Replies: 4
Views: 409

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Y'all need to listen to what Victoria told you: Go and read Mandelbrot. The market is disorderly and chaotic. More powerful computers, appeals to authority or to history, more sophisticated statistics, ... are not going to change that. Isn't the admonition to "read Mandelbrot" an appeal t...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Selling FFNOX and buying components- tax implications

I have owned FFNOX (Fidelity Four-in-one Fund) for a long time in a taxable account.....don't want to sell because of tax implications- I have large gains. FFNOX is comprised of: 48.41% Spartan 500 Index Fund 12.20% Spartan Extended Market Index Fund 24.42% Spartan International Index Fund 14.94% Sp...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling FFNOX and buying components- tax implications
Replies: 4
Views: 409

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

However practically speaking of course investing involves the assumption that the relatively near term future will generally resemble the relatively near term past, and that can be a major practical pitfall when things suddenly change. However there seems no way around it Fundamentally, I agree wit...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Y'all need to listen to what Victoria told you: Go and read Mandelbrot. The market is disorderly and chaotic. More powerful computers, appeals to authority or to history, more sophisticated statistics, ... are not going to change that. L. Exactly. The only historical point I was trying to make was ...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: I Can't Smell The Coffee

Get a women.....The coffee they make in the morning smells wonderful.... and there are other benefits.........Gordon Got one, and she does make good coffee! Just don't want her living with me! :D You guys get me laughing at times. But for coffee I like one of these http://www.rakuten.com/prod/porce...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I Can't Smell The Coffee [one cup coffee maker]
Replies: 36
Views: 4823

Re: I Can't Smell The Coffee

Get a women.....The coffee they make in the morning smells wonderful.... and there are other benefits.........Gordon Got one, and she does make good coffee! Just don't want her living with me! :D You guys get me laughing at times. But for coffee I like one of these http://www.rakuten.com/prod/porce...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I Can't Smell The Coffee [one cup coffee maker]
Replies: 36
Views: 4823

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

There isn't total ignorance. A good touchstone for me is the paper Simba pointed out: The Equity Premium in 150 Textbooks . Now, I believe there is an equity risk premium. I believe there is ⋅ a reasonably good explanation in financial economics of why there ought to be an equity risk pre...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Instruments and kids

When did your kids start playing instruments, how old were they and what instrument did they start with? Anything you'd do differently? Thanks! TRC Listen to your children. Expose them to lots of music. They will let you know when they want to start and what they want to play. Let them pursue their...
by protagonist
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Instruments and kids
Replies: 31
Views: 1920

Re: Instruments and kids

When did your kids start playing instruments, how old were they and what instrument did they start with? Anything you'd do differently? Thanks! TRC Listen to your children. Expose them to lots of music. They will let you know when they want to start and what they want to play. Let them pursue their...
by protagonist
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Instruments and kids
Replies: 31
Views: 1920

Re: I Can't Smell The Coffee

I live alone and don't need a eight or ten cup coffee maker. I am happy with my one cup at a time Keurig Coffee Maker using K Cups, but sure miss the smell of brewing coffee. Try a Chemex . http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/ristretto-chemex/?_r=0 I had one for years and never used it, u...
by protagonist
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I Can't Smell The Coffee [one cup coffee maker]
Replies: 36
Views: 4823

Re: to rebalance or not to rebalance

The range of responses here from people who are much more on top of the finance literature than myself is perhaps an indication (or, in my case, a confirmation) of how little "science" and how much guesswork there is to all of this. My gut feeling...if you believe in rebalancing for reason...
by protagonist
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: to rebalance or not to rebalance
Replies: 63
Views: 3316

Re: Vacuum Cleaner Suggestions Please

If you are not compulsive about cleaning but want your place to look nice, and believe in the 90/10 rule (that 90% of the work takes 10% of the time), go with a vacuuming robot and eschew the vacuum cleaner. My vacuum cleaners have sat in the basement unused since I bought a Mint 5200 (which, incide...
by protagonist
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacuum Cleaner Suggestions Please
Replies: 17
Views: 2268

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Out of the Past. 1947 classic noir with Robert Mitchum, Krik Douglas and Jane Greer- considered by many one of the best noirs ever. Great 40s dialogue and cigarette smoking styles throughout...every other line reminded me of that line from Play it Again, Sam where Bogie tells Woody: " [quote wi...
by protagonist
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 262
Views: 28653

Re: Family jewels, kind of.

Am I the only one that is bothered by the entire premise of this scenario? The parents are selling diamonds to their son-in-law? What's next? Are they going to bill him for half the wedding? Is this for a wedding ring? You are not alone. Reading halfway through that third sentence, my smile about &...
by protagonist
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family jewels, kind of.
Replies: 44
Views: 3319

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I'm not clear on who said it--whether it was a pointy-haired boss type making an excuse or someone who should have been numerate--but it is frequently stated that the "founders" of LTCM said that its failure had been caused by "a 10-sigma event." I'm not sure how to post images ...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

If I wrote a book, it would probably use a river as an organizing principle. Maybe Find Your Current in the River and Go With It . - - If your book provides marital advice, title it "Go with the Flow." Victoria That's hilarious. Personally, I wish I eddied out before getting recirculated.
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 9696

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Protagonist... as I understand it, the basic idea of a black swan is that you have events which are fabulously rare, but there are a fabulously high number of them. So even though each black swan is to rare as to seem impossible--certainly unpredictable--the chance of being hit by one of them is no...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Unlocking iPhone 6

If she wants a new iphone6, she can get it for less with a new 2 year contract or pay full price and get unlocked phone and she can then use any sim card based carrier for service. How can she think of "continue using AT&T towers" and be off contract? Get unlocked phone and get cricke...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unlocking iPhone 6
Replies: 31
Views: 2590

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

The fact that financial models cannot predict Black Swans(*) is very important, because there are far more Black Swans in financial markets than in physical or other-than-economics social phenomena. In the last 20 years, we had the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 1998 Russian financial crisis that ...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I am opposed to people selling (and yes, often for profit) ideas as scientifically and statistically valid when they are not. That is at the least self-delusional and at worst deceptive. You might say I am for truth in advertising. A Nobel prize in economic science has gone to someone who worked on...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

Into Thin Air Into the Wild If you like those you will love "Miracle in the Andes" http://www.amazon.com/Miracle-Andes-Days-Mountain-Long/dp/140009769X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1416950786&sr=8-1&keywords=miracle+in+the+andes&pebp=1416950790137 Please note the 5 out of 5 star...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 9696

Re: Unlocking iPhone 6

Are new iPhones difficult to unlock by the casual user? As I said, when I bought my Galaxy S3 almost 2 years ago, I unlocked it for free by following instructions in a youtube video. It took no more than five or ten minutes of my time. Assuming you use used steps like these , you unlocked your phon...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unlocking iPhone 6
Replies: 31
Views: 2590

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I am saying that many people in this thread have prejudged the field of financial econometrics and its possible relevance to individual investors. You have a point. I also think there is an unfair tendency for people to generalize. I am certain that there are many brilliant and highly ethical peopl...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I am opposed to people selling (and yes, often for profit) ideas as scientifically and statistically valid when they are not. That is at the least self-delusional and at worst deceptive. You might say I am for truth in advertising. A Nobel prize in economic science has gone to someone who worked on...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Leeraar wrote:
protagonist wrote:I am opposed to people selling (and yes, often for profit) ideas as scientifically and statistically valid when they are not. That is at the least self-delusional and at worst deceptive.

I see the issue as misunderstanding, or misreprsenting, the risk.

L



Same thing. Just nicer words.
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Sounds to me like you are thinking about things like the various expert opinions on the expected 10-30 year returns of various asset classes. Is that right? As opposed to someone saying, well given what I think I know about history and theory the best I can do is expect in the long run stocks will ...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Why not check that retrospectively to see how good the "best we can do" has been in the past? It would be fruitful to look at a cross-section of financial predictions made approx. 30 years ago by the financial community based on data available to see just how accurate they were, comparing...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 22183

Re: Unlocking iPhone 6

Locked to AT&T? Call AT&T, tell them you're about to travel internationally and ask them for an unlock code. That won't work unless your contract is over. I tried. They will tell you to buy their international service. I found the people in the store that I frequent knew absolutely nothing ...
by protagonist
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unlocking iPhone 6
Replies: 31
Views: 2590
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