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Re: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?

Save more or spend less. But definitely don't borrow. If you are overspending your salary because of how much you are saving, then you have the above two options....clearly if you have 1.1M saved and will inherit another million or so, if you don't screw up you are fine. But if you are overspending ...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?
Replies: 15
Views: 2021

Re: Upgrading from Iphone 4s - 5s or 6?

I think it's time for me to upgrade. I have a 4s, and would like one of the newer phones to take advantage of some of the advances (like LTE) featured on the new Iphones. The $100 difference (w/ contract) is not a big deal, I actually prefer the smaller size of the 5s, since I keep my phone in my p...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Upgrading from Iphone 4s - 5s or 6?
Replies: 29
Views: 2099

Re: Upgrading from Iphone 4s - 5s or 6?

I think it's time for me to upgrade. I have a 4s, and would like one of the newer phones to take advantage of some of the advances (like LTE) featured on the new Iphones. The $100 difference (w/ contract) is not a big deal, I actually prefer the smaller size of the 5s, since I keep my phone in my p...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Upgrading from Iphone 4s - 5s or 6?
Replies: 29
Views: 2099

Re: Gas stove features

Sears has an outlet ("chip-and-dent") store that often has fantastic buys on appliances but you have to keep checking. I got a great Samsung refrigerator from them for less than half the normal retail price.....supposedly it is a store demo with scratches but I can't see the scratches. For...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas stove features
Replies: 8
Views: 733

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

Follow-up on this: First: lots of great advice from many people. Thanks. I found what is passing as a ""New OEM" battery on Ebay for $60....I'm skeptical but IMHO it is worth the $60 gamble. I was going to attempt the installation myself, but there is a very reputable service-oriented...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

Another item to reference in your complaint letter is the business's mission statement. A quick googling for Lenovo I found: “Our mission is to become one of the world’s great personal technology companies. We aspire to achieve this objective by leading in three key areas: Personal Computers: Lead ...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

One question..... When I looked up "effective complaint letter" online, a source specifically stated that you should write to their consumer relations dept. at first, and not the CEO, since any letter addressed to the CEO with a complaint will be sent to the consumer relations dept. immed...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

tadamsmar wrote:Looks like replacement instructions start on page 32:

http://download.lenovo.com/consumer/mob ... nglish.pdf



Yes, thanks. I have this. It details tearing it down, not actually replacing the battery. That is probably what I will use.
by protagonist
Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

YouTube has a few how to videos for this repair. I have tackled numerous projects after seeing a clear instructional video. I would attempt the repair myself, $500.00 for someone else to do it is too high. Aftermarket batteries may work out just fine, if you are skeptical about the repair it may be...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Tilting or gaining exposure to any factor that is a compensated risk is no different than tilting to value. But tilting to tech stocks isn't a compensated risk as you can diversify that risk away. Tilting to EM would be a compensated risk as EM countries typically have less developed capital market...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

This may seem simplistic but..... assuming that the value premium is real and is reflected in commensurate increased risk, what is the difference between tilting towards value vs tilting towards any other "riskier" investment, say tech stocks, or emerging markets, for example? I assume tha...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

One question..... When I looked up "effective complaint letter" online, a source specifically stated that you should write to their consumer relations dept. at first, and not the CEO, since any letter addressed to the CEO with a complaint will be sent to the consumer relations dept. immed...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

I wrote a polite but firm complaint e-mail to Steven Dell. Received a call back within 15 minutes. Issue was resolved by end of same day and I still buy Dell products. ~Moshe That counts for a lot. I'll keep that in mind. If I get no satisfaction from Lenovo I will consider buying my next computer ...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

battery died 14 months after purchase. Two months after the warranty expired. Company will not care. Will. Not. They will tell you their obligation to you is the one-year written warranty, and not a day longer. You will be wasting time. I'm curious....on what do you base your statement, which seems...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

In my limited experience: --The best place to send it to is the office of the CEO of the company. Go to the corporate website, look for investor or shareholder relations, download the latest annual report, and look for the CEO's name and the mailing address of the corporate headquarters. Or, try Wi...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

For me the key has always been to a) ask for something specific; and b) be reasonable. In this case it might be asking for 1/2. I'm seeing a battery listed on Amazon right now for $73. I had (well still have, actually) a Dell Laptop that had a similar ridiculous procedure to replace a hard drive. W...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

Probably not what you want to hear, but I would not waste my time. I doubt you'll get anywhere. If you bought this from a retailer, they usually offer the '3 year' additional warranty... etc.... I usually just take the standard default 1 year, and take my chances after that. These laptops are usual...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

How to write an effective complaint letter

My Lenovo Yoga 13 battery died 14 months after purchase. Two months after the warranty expired. I was surprised to find that one cannot replace the battery one's self. Or maybe it is possible, but it is highly discouraged, at least somewhat complicated, and I could not find any online information fr...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1352

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Protagonist First, the value premium is persistent and pervasive around the globe and statistically significant the only debate being behavioral or risk. Second, volatility isn't the only type of risk, nor the only definition. As I noted you don't need the volatility story to believe value stocks a...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

stlutz Don't you find it convenient that to avoid the higher vol story you have to EXCLUDE the very period when you would expect value to perform the worst, and it did? Is that not data mining at its worst? Larry No matter who chooses a date range that confirms his view, one can always charge "...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

at least based on historical evidence the value premium has been about as persistent as the equity premium. ...Good choice IMO cannot be justified based on any evidence, just perhaps your own opinion (which of course you are entitled to have). Larry Larry, you have been one of the strongest propone...
by protagonist
Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I can't do any significant rebalancing. I allowed my equities to grow considerably in the past when I didn't know any better. Rebalancing now would make me lose Romneycare (to be morphed into Obamacare) and cost me several thousand dollars a year in premiums, plus a large tax bill. I will probably r...
by protagonist
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 156384

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Increasing inflation has never persisted indefinitely anywhere--it has a lifespan--whereas corporate earning growth in spite of setbacks now and then can continue to rise decade after decade and century after century. Garland Whizzer This is similar to the common feeling in Rome during the time of ...
by protagonist
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

It's hard to use pre-FED periods as representative to the options we have now. Back then, we didn't have Recessions or Depressions -- we had PANICS! Economies would fall off cliffs, millions of people would die, empires would fall. This is, and I imagine always will be, the history of the world, as...
by protagonist
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

I still am having trouble getting my brain around why stocks increase on the average a massive 8%/year if inflation only increases 2-3%/year on average. Some of the replies here have hit on half of the idea. If stock ownership represents ownership of companies participation in a global economy, the...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Bob K posts as bobcat2 and is worth paying attention to. Some of the key concepts I've learned from are as follows: - Equities are risky, period. If you don't want to run out of money, have safe sources of income that satisfy your needs, such as Social Security (maximiized), TIPS ladder, and alike....
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Bob K has firmly planted in my head that the expected market returns, safe withdrawal rates, and other parameters typically used by the Bogleheads are far less relevant than liability matching and lifecycle consumption smoothing. Victoria Not knowing specifically what you are referring to re:BobK, ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

protagonist: one simple reason, even if you don't buy any of the productivity increases (like you should) is that stock returns consist of present value plus accumulated earnings. So if everything stays constant, earnings keep pace with inflation, book values keep pace with inflation, but their sum...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Based on your graph, GDP has been growing much, much slower than the stock market. It looks like about a tenfold increase in GDP over the last century or so compared with maybe a thousandfold or so increase in the DJIA (gross estimates). Are assumptions such as yours above creating a "bubble&q...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

If we assume that the stock market should probably beat inflation (or anything else) over the long term, we should understand WHY. I did a Google search on "stocks as an inflation hedge", which I think is more neutral than "stocks always beating inflation". A number of articles ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictab

The Fed controls the very short term and has considerable influence beyond it, but its setting of rates is less than seems to meet many eyes. To further PJW's point, it's instructive to see how little influence the Fed has actually had on longer-term interest rates over the last 25 years, beyond th...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictable?]
Replies: 25
Views: 913

Re: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictab

The Fed controls the very short term and has considerable influence beyond it, but its setting of rates is less than seems to meet many eyes. To further PJW's point, it's instructive to see how little influence the Fed has actually had on longer-term interest rates over the last 25 years, beyond th...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictable?]
Replies: 25
Views: 913

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

For the 17-year period, 1966 through 1982, inclusive, the stock market did not beat inflation. It's a detail, one moment in history, but an important detail. That is what the much-derided 1979 Businessweek article, The Death of Equities: How inflation is destroying the stock market was all about. S...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

People say that the market is unpredictable in the short run but more predictable in the long run. Who are these people? Many claim that though short term market fluctuations are fairly random, over the long run you should make money in the stock market , and the stock market will outperform nearly...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

One way to think about it is the sum total of global human output (global GDP) has always gone up and will continue to go up due to gains in efficiency through technology, exploiting previously unknown resources, new inventions, etc (barring a global catastrophe). Thankfully, we can ensure we parti...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

One way to think about it is the sum total of global human output (global GDP) has always gone up and will continue to go up due to gains in efficiency through technology, exploiting previously unknown resources, new inventions, etc (barring a global catastrophe). Thankfully, we can ensure we parti...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Stocks represent ownership of companies. When the value of a company rises, its stock price rises. Companies create products. Inflation represents rise in products prices; companies sell products at higher prices. As companies sell products at higher prices, their revenues rise, their value rises, ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Prior thread on subject :happy http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=58614 Scanning this thread, I see many explanations for why stocks keep up with inflation or are a good hedge against inflation. I understand that. This would also be my assumption. What I don't understand is why stocks ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Stocks represent ownership of companies. When the value of a company rises, its stock price rises. Companies create products. Inflation represents rise in products prices; companies sell products at higher prices. As companies sell products at higher prices, their revenues rise, their value rises, ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

Re: You will think this is a stupid question

The only question about market timing is, do you know anything that everyone else does not? L. 1. My original title of this thread (changed for the better by an administrator) was: "You will think this is a stupid question". That, hopefully, answers your question. No, I don't. 2. Though t...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictable?]
Replies: 25
Views: 913

Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Over the course of my investing career I have heard the same mantra, that given enough time, the stock market beats inflation. I have heard annual expected market gains over time quoted as 8%, 10%, 12% depending on when the quoting was done. But is this really true, or just evidence that we are in t...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3050

[unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictable?]

I understand the futility of market timing since the future is unpredictable. But what about when it is very predictable? If the Fed says they will raise interest rates in 2015, why would anybody not sell their bond funds at the end of 2014? http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2014/03/27/fed-on-targ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictable?]
Replies: 25
Views: 913

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

nisiprius wrote:
Browser wrote:How will we know that value has stopped working?
You won't know.


+++++1

You will also never know if it ever "worked". Complex systems often have built-in cycles, and cycles within cycles, the length of which are impossible to predict.
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

Here's the $64 question. What approach should replace the 4% Rule? Obviously, it should not be a constant withdrawal strategy such as the 4% rule. But just as obviously, it shouldn't be just a seat-of-the-pants approach either. One of the objectives of the 4% solution was to replace hunches and int...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4592

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Technical analysis seems to be a point of sometimes humorous disagreement between some on this forum. Larry recently posted a good article on academic research looking at technical analysis. Below is a direct quote from his article. It's worthwhile to read the whole thing but the take home message ...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 156384

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

4% is just something that can be modeled and tested. "Modeling and testing" projections 30 years into the future based on 90 years of data (somewhat hypothetical numbers) is the statistical equivalent of "modeling and testing" the market one day into the future based on three da...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4592

Replacing broken screen on cell phone

I just replaced the broken screen on my Samsung Galaxy S3 using an $8.40 kit I bought on Amazon and a hair dryer. It was an easy repair....took about a half hour and the phone looks and works good as new. All I used for the repair was a hair dryer, a guitar pick, some alcohol (for cleaning not drink...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing broken screen on cell phone
Replies: 0
Views: 180

Re: Verizon: Upgrade iPhone - No longer "Loyal Customer"

Verizon has never been willing to give away the store to retain customers. When you consistently have < 1% churn/quarter, there simply is no need. It is always very interesting that in the churn surveys about 15% of VZW customers say they are going to leave. Yet, that actual churn number stays abou...
by protagonist
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Verizon: Upgrade iPhone - No longer "Loyal Customer"
Replies: 22
Views: 3630

Re: H2O vs Jolt vs Air Voice Wireless for $30/mo, unlim, 500

Good information. You mean you just put the SIM card in and the activation just started? Also, I plan on buying the refills through pinzoo.com which is what I do now for my net 10 service. There ate no taxes our fees. You can get h2o refill for $29 and some change. I pay with my amex card for furth...
by protagonist
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: H2O vs Jolt vs Air Voice Wireless for $30/mo, unlim, 500 Mb
Replies: 12
Views: 1043

Re: H2O vs Jolt vs Air Voice Wireless for $30/mo, unlim, 500

I got two SIM cards to try h2o wireless as well. I'll be activating them soon. I got my SIM cards on eBay for a total of $.04 with free shipping. EBay is always the place for SIM cards. Always dirt cheap. That's a good tip, penn. Thanks. I got a $30 activation card including one month of $30./mo se...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: H2O vs Jolt vs Air Voice Wireless for $30/mo, unlim, 500 Mb
Replies: 12
Views: 1043
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