Search found 3170 matches

by protagonist
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

Unless one is prepared to go the "reverse mortgage" route (or sell one's abode), it's best not to include presumed "home equity" in one's retirement portfolio. And if you don't plan on selling stock or taking a loan on margin, should you include your stocks in your portfolio? Th...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

In other words, if you want to stay in retirement where you are now, don't include the house value. That's equivalent to saying, "If you want to leave a million dollars that you have in stocks and bonds for your kids when you die, don't include that as part of your portfolio". I also beli...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

FiveK wrote:
In other words, if you want to stay in retirement where you are now, don't include the house value.



That's like saying, "If you want to leave a million dollars that you have in stocks and bonds for your kids when you die, don't include that as part of your portfolio".
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

One interesting point that I'm interested in pursuing is how people consider it as part of their investment portfolio, and if they do or do not adjust their investment allocations as a result. In my case, the last time I checked ( February), I was about 50/50 in stocks/fixed investments. But when I...
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stacked up some more silver bullion today
Replies: 94
Views: 12864

Re: Stacked up some more silver bullion today

What do these things typically sell for these days? I have a silver denarius from the reign of Septimus Severus....had it since I was a kid. If I recall, ancient coins were very cheap back when I bought mine. Nice - I've seen the Septimius Severus denarii in VF condition go for about $60-$100 latel...
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 5576

Re: Can the market go up forever?

If M2 money supply grows at a real rate of 2% per year, in about 4000 years there will be more dollars than there are atoms on planet Earth. Get the picture? I am not much for predictions of the future, but physical money will likely be phased out in much less than 4000 years. I don't see how M2 co...
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

HOme equity is critical, since for many it is a major (if not THE major) portion of their assets. It's not a question of whether you WANT to tap into it, any more than it is a question of whether you want to tap into your stocks rather than save them for your heirs- they are still part of your inves...
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stacked up some more silver bullion today
Replies: 94
Views: 12864

Re: Stacked up some more silver bullion today

I got a few silver ancients last year: - Alexander the Great drachm from ~320 BC - Artaxerxes I siglos from ~450 BC - Tiberius denarius from 18-35 AD - some Sasanian and Parthian drachma The goal for 2015 is either a shekel of Tyre or an Alexander the Great tetradrachm, if I can find a decent deal....
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stacked up some more silver bullion today
Replies: 94
Views: 12864

Re: Stacked up some more silver bullion today

I bought some this past week. Sterling silver in the shape of a ring. DG was surprised and happy and now DF :) Taking our time to find the right design, then will invest in some 14 kt gold and other shiny objects (luckily she loves lime green and wants Peridot over Diamonds). In the best of all pos...
by protagonist
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 5576

Re: Can the market go up forever?

I was having fun with this, but underlying that, I was trying to make a point. I cannot prove it, but I sort of think that, in the long run, all investments are a zero sum game cf. inflation, and that the only thing that distinguishes them is risk. This goes in cycles. Perhaps when economies expand,...
by protagonist
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Frugal Thing You Do
Replies: 518
Views: 103811

Re: That Frugal Thing You Do

So, what's the frugal thing you do?


Stay single.

Have you been doing it since before the recession?


Unfortunately, no.
by protagonist
Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 5576

Re: Can the market go up forever?

z3r0c00l wrote:A novemdecillionaire seven times over!


I did those calculations all in my head. Please feel free to check my math.
by protagonist
Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 5576

Re: Can the market go up forever?

Thing tells me that $18000 invested upon the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 (around when the Roman empire peaked) probably would not have been worth $8,945,715,541,162,441,830,301,696 in 680. Or $162,498,654,913,314,030,127,092,455,811,863,926,596,028,156,592,664,883,814,311,585,130,573,555,122,04...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: About to close on a home we have overbid on - have cold feet
Replies: 67
Views: 7808

Re: About to close on a home we have overbid on - have cold feet

Another consideration is what a pain in the neck a $2.3M home is to maintain. even if you hire people to do it for you. Not to mention the cost. How many rooms, and how much acreage, will go nearly unused? Factor the headaches into the amount of increased pleasure you anticipate you will get out of...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: About to close on a home we have overbid on - have cold feet
Replies: 67
Views: 7808

Re: About to close on a home we have overbid on - have cold feet

Another consideration is what a pain in the neck a $2.3M home is to maintain. even if you hire people to do it for you. Not to mention the cost. How many rooms, and how much acreage, will go nearly unused? Factor the headaches into the amount of increased pleasure you anticipate you will get out of ...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 5576

Re: Can the market go up forever?

Bear in mind that the American Stock Market has existed since before 1800. It has already shown to have positive real returns for over 200+ years. Depending on how you measure it, with reinvested dividends, and assuming zero expenses, for the last 150 years has been roughly 8-12% per year, and ther...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 80
Views: 5576

Re: Can the market go up forever?

I wonder whether, ultimately, all investments.... cash, bonds, stocks, real estate whatever.... are a zero-sum game cf. inflation, and whether the only factor differentiating return between different investments is risk. Perhaps we are accustomed to believing that stocks will outperform other invest...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 30, 2015 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof
Replies: 16
Views: 2250

Re: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof

This is the take Wikipedia has on the Dogs: "O'Higgins and others back-tested the strategy as far back as the 1920s and found that investing in the Dogs consistently outperformed the market as a whole. Since that time, the data shows that the Dogs of the Dow as well as the popular variant, the ...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 6780

Re: Who's selling now?

I'm not selling.

But I feel vindicated, for all those times over the last few years that I saw my overall portfolio "only" go up half as quickly as the stock market and I thought about how much money I would have made had I not been invested 50% in CDs.
by protagonist
Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: washing machine [Recommendations for]
Replies: 39
Views: 4427

Re: washing machine [Recommendations for]

I'm also in the market for one. As I tend to do in these situations, I wasted more time researching it than the cost of the washer is worth. My conclusions are that the best brands are LG and Samsung (as often seems to be the case). Most all of their models are highly rated. Get a front loader- they...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 6780

Re: Who's selling now?

The last time I "backed up the truck" to buy a pile of stock was in 2000, when, within the course of about a month, the NASDAQ composite fell from its peak over 5000 to about 3500. As I followed the rapid 30% decline I was ecstatic, piling up on the new aggressive dotcom stocks. Over the c...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help 2 grow 90k invest fairly fast
Replies: 89
Views: 7763

Re: Help 2 grow 90k invest fairly fast

I have 95K (or did as of 9 AM today) in various MF/s with RJ. Sold off Vanguard in June to apply to ML. When I spoke with RJ today to get the numbers I stopped all liquidation in hopes the market improves so I can get closer to even. Again, risk is proportional to reward. The stock market could bou...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help 2 grow 90k invest fairly fast
Replies: 89
Views: 7763

Re: Help 2 grow 90k invest fairly fast

Just a nuance, but the OP did not say grow. Yes, but he title does say "grow". Yes. Indeed. We will wait for the OP to react to the posts so far. As I am new to the group it is like hoop after hoop to finally get up and going. I am 61 and learning to live on Social Security Disability, IP...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

Riprap wrote:Sometimes I just push back away from my desk mesmerized at the at the intellect expended pondering the unknowable.

...and then I get right back to reading :beer


++++1 (haha)
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value
Replies: 13
Views: 1190

Re: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value

Just doing a quick spot check, it looks like expensive diamond rings tend to sell for between 1/4 and 1/3 their appraised value on Ebay. Is that right? That is what I suspected. I wouldn't sell for that price. Basically because I don't need $10K or $15K badly enough at this stage of my life to sell...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

Though many posters here seem to have a sense about future returns , none have demonstrated how accurate past projected returns forward have fared. A little back testing would be interesting. For example, given projections of, say, 20 randomly selected but well-respected "experts" in 1989,...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

Another similarity is land. If you look at just land prices alone and broadly they'll just pace inflation. Grow and sell crops using that land and the land nets a 'dividend'. Assuming the land is priced fairly based on its potential for production, if the yield exceeds the factored-in price, it net...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

With respect, this thread isn't about debating economic growth through ancient history, but rather encouraging investors to look ahead at the primary economic growth factors (population and productivity growth) in the decades to come Right-sorry if I got sidetracked, but I thought you were using th...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

But I would not be surprised, if you looked at the entire course of human history since the last ice age and the birth of the first cities... The critically important difference is that through all of the historical time period that you mention, both population and productivity growth rates have be...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value
Replies: 13
Views: 1190

Re: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value

Carson wrote:It sounds beautiful. I have a .4 emerald cut, maybe I need an upgrade. :P



(laughing...) Nah.

It is how much you love each other that matters. Not the ring.
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value
Replies: 13
Views: 1190

Re: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value

Just doing a quick spot check, it looks like expensive diamond rings tend to sell for between 1/4 and 1/3 their appraised value on Ebay. Is that right? That is what I suspected. I wouldn't sell for that price. Basically because I don't need $10K or $15K badly enough at this stage of my life to sell...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value
Replies: 13
Views: 1190

Re: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value

Just doing a quick spot check, it looks like expensive diamond rings tend to sell for between 1/4 and 1/3 their appraised value on Ebay. I'm also curious.... If one traded the ring at a jewelry store for another ring, would the recipient expect to get one of close to the same value? Or would the je...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

My concern is that everything we know about "normal" asset returns comes from a period that was apparently quite abnormal in human history ... Your thoughts? Exactly. The past 150-200 years or so (post-industrial revolution) may well have been the most remarkable period of growth in the h...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2323

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

My concern is that everything we know about "normal" asset returns comes from a period that was apparently quite abnormal in human history ... Your thoughts? Exactly. The past 150-200 years or so (post-industrial revolution) may well have been the most remarkable period of growth in the h...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Passed up for a promotion, now what?
Replies: 34
Views: 4466

Re: Passed up for a promotion, now what?

As per posters above.... Walk softly, but carry a big stick. That is, don't make waves, complain, talk about it at all anymore with anybody at work. Don't try to meet with your boss about this. Continue to do your work well. At the same time, since you are dissatisfied and you feel like your trust h...
by protagonist
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value
Replies: 13
Views: 1190

Diamond ring- insurance vs resale value

I inherited a diamond ring (made in the 1920s). I had it appraised for insurance value and was very surprised to find that it was appraised for $42,500. 3 ct emerald cut, high quality with two adjacent 0.3 ct stones on a platinum band. I know that resale value for diamonds is much lower than insuran...
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2009
Views: 384522

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

On a day like today, I feel uncomfortable not to buy something, mostly symbolically. "Mr. Herbert Hoover says that now's the time to buy, So let's have another cup o' coffee, and lets have another piece o' pie!" I just learned about the asteroid. Thanks. Maybe you are right and Efrain Rod...
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23942

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

$42,500 invested at 3.53% in December 1972 would have been worth 85,057 in December 1992. $42,500 in December '72 was the equivalent of $141,900 in Dec. 1992. So if you invested at 3.53% in 12/72 (compounded annually), you would have lost 40% to inflation over 20 years. Slightly less if compounded d...
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Boglehead seeking advice!
Replies: 20
Views: 1520

Re: New Boglehead seeking advice!

Wow, even more responses! Well I have already let go my financial advisor, he says he understands my decision and all and didn't try to convince me to stay, as Meg says he probably not too overly concerned with me leaving. He did say I can talk to him or his associates in the future if I wanted to ...
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With Stock Market heading south
Replies: 95
Views: 11280

Re: With Stock Market heading south

I finally got in the game when the S&P 500 was about 1400 (don't remember exactly) and it was a fairly smooth ride up to 2100. Now, it has bounced around 2100 most of the year, and the last couple/few days are causing definite concern... maybe panic for some. Right. S+P is still up 11.4% over a...
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2009
Views: 384522

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If it makes you feel any better, the S+P is still up 11.4% since a year ago today.

It will take a large correction to make up for the gains of the past few years.
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bad day on Wall Street -- A good day for the media.
Replies: 51
Views: 5587

Re: A bad day on Wall Street -- A good day for the media.

Well you know, the media could be right.
Or they could be wrong.

When you don't know what is going to happen (which means pretty much always, the Monte Hall problem notwithstanding), it's best to do nothing. It's the path of least resistance.
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With Stock Market heading south
Replies: 95
Views: 11280

Re: With Stock Market heading south

With the stock market heading down and may get worse heading in to September what is your thoughts? I'm sure for most is to ride it out and try not to look or be to concerned. There isn't much a person can do and if you make a move it maybe more dramatic then just hoping things turn around. Riding ...
by protagonist
Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23942

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

It's my impression that you're hung up on the the phrase "playing the odds". How about if G2BO had instead said something like "I'm not guessing, as much as simply taking advantage of a unique mispricing in the market." You see, the yield curve has been pricing Treasury Bonds ou...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23942

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

If you've won the game... by definition it's over. How can you keep playing? ask any celtic(not the dancers) fan. Red Auerbach used to light up a cigar on the bench when the Celtics "had the game won." But yet they still had to play until the clock ran out. It isn't a game and you can't s...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23942

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

Do you believe that the rate of inflation will exceed 3.53% is the right question. How could you possibly guess? Why would your "belief" be relevant? Do you even have a vague notion of what the geopolitical situation of the world or its economy will be like in 2035? I got my first mortgag...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23942

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

Do you believe that the rate of inflation will exceed 3.53% is the right question. How could you possibly guess? Why would your "belief" be relevant? Do you even have a vague notion of what the geopolitical situation of the world or its economy will be like in 2035? I got my first mortgag...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any [iPhone] "Apps" you like?
Replies: 66
Views: 7257

Re: Any [iPhone] "Apps" you like?

Waze navigation crowd sourced app...Gets real time driving conditions from other users... Saved me from traffic headaches many times... Summit +1 +4 for the family members using it. I heard it now belongs to the Google Alphabet. 3 of us had dedicated GPS devices because we felt they were better tha...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enough Life Insurance?
Replies: 13
Views: 903

Re: Enough Life Insurance?

Thoughts? Should I add more insurance? If so, how much?? Thanks in advance for the help. Life insurance is a casino bet with terrible odds stacked against you. If the odds were in your favor, Warren Buffett et al would be broke. I would bet that if you had zero life insurance, and instead invested ...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enough Life Insurance?
Replies: 13
Views: 903

Re: Enough Life Insurance?

Thoughts? Should I add more insurance? If so, how much?? Thanks in advance for the help. Life insurance is a casino bet with terrible odds stacked against you. If the odds were in your favor, Warren Buffett et al would be broke. I would bet that if you had zero life insurance, and instead invested ...

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