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Re: Dry Powder

dbr wrote:
Chan_va wrote:Isn't that what bonds and rebalancing were designed for? I don't get it


Right, that is where the false analogy comes in.


What is both Stocks and Bonds are down? Have we never seen such a scenario? There is possibility that it might happen.
by pop77
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Re: Dry Powder

Couple of months back I started a couple of discussions on having Cash as a targeted allocation in the portfolio for SOLE purpose of buying in dips. This does not apply to the bucket approach where retirees have a portion in Cash/ST instruments to withstand market drops (For example, having one yea...
by pop77
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Re: Dry Powder

I'd stick with bonds. It's not like anyone doesn't know that the market will flicuate,... Is *flicuate* when you watch consecutive flicks on TV? :) Seriously, other than stated in OP (emergency, ST need in withdrawal, etc.), the only reason to hold cash at 0% return is to market time. The taboo reg...
by pop77
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Re: Dry Powder

So, let's say you have X% of your assets in "dry powder." A dip comes and you buy stocks. You now have less/no dry powder. How do you replenish your dry powder? Do you sell stocks when they rise? Sell bonds? Change your allocation? With the exception of the first use of dry powder, the re...
by pop77
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Dry Powder

Couple of months back I started a couple of discussions on having Cash as a targeted allocation in the portfolio for SOLE purpose of buying in dips. This does not apply to the bucket approach where retirees have a portion in Cash/ST instruments to withstand market drops (For example, having one year...
by pop77
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Re: Quicken 2015 for Windows - Any reviews?

MY REVIEW (in Amazon) as I upgraded today. First some background to alleviate any concerns on the legitimacy of my review. Disclaimer: I bought the PC disk version. I recommend the PC Disk as my experience in using it was smooth. 1. I am a quicken user from 2011 Fall. In 2011 fall October I got my ...
by pop77
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken 2015 for Windows - Any reviews?
Replies: 44
Views: 4334

Quicken 2015 for Windows - Any reviews?

Did anyone upgrade to Quicken 2015 Premier for Windows yet? Love to hear reviews/feedback if anyone did.
by pop77
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken 2015 for Windows - Any reviews?
Replies: 44
Views: 4334

Re: Fidelity Enhances Passwords

Fidelity recently enhanced the complexity of passwords on their accounts. They increased the maximum password length to 20 characters and they now REQUIRE at least one of a few select "special characters". Previously, passwords were limited to 12 alpha-numeric characters (no special chara...
by pop77
Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Enhances Passwords
Replies: 11
Views: 1684

Re: I Bonds - Now or November

tipswatcher wrote:
We're looking at $10 either way, eh?


$10, plus all the fun of pondering these things.


+1

It is $10/yr for a total of $300.. :D
by pop77
Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - Now or November
Replies: 8
Views: 1634

I Bonds - Now or November

With fixed rate at 0.1% and inflation expectations lower, does it make sense to buy this year's quota of I Bonds now or wait till the new rate in Dec?
by pop77
Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - Now or November
Replies: 8
Views: 1634

Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity

Today I had an interesting experience with my credit cards. I had a Citi Platinum card which I have not used for a long time. I recently saw the thread on the Citi Double cash card and I called in to see whether they can transfer the Citi Platinum card into the Double Cash card. To my surprise I was...
by pop77
Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity
Replies: 29
Views: 2010

Re: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation

Doesn't make sense to me. One reason for combining asset classes is for diversification. You don't want to risk a significant string of unhedged low returns. The misnamed Callan Periodic Table is useful for this kind of thought experiment, assuming you don't care enough to do a quantitative model. ...
by pop77
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 757

Re: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation

Dr. Bernstein talks about something similar in "Ages of the Investor". He quotes a study that concluded using leverage when you are young is rational. The flaw in this is behavioral: the young investor, who hasn't benefited from the experience of living through market cycles, would lose h...
by pop77
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 757

Bucket Path - Asset Allocation

There have been many threads here on glide paths, reverse glide paths, increasing and decreasing glide paths etc. Has there been any studies in following a bucket path towards asset allocation? Here is how I explain the bucket path. Say you decide you need $1M to retire. Assume you chose the three f...
by pop77
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 757

Re: International allocation

Nobody has brought this up yet, let me try. Out of curiosity I looked up the list of S&P 500 companies in Wikipedia and sorted it by headquarters. I found a bunch of companies headquartered in Dublin Ireland, some in Switzerland. My question is when we talk about allocation are we taking into a...
by pop77
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5170

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

few things Second re PCRIX as pointed out seems you are making the very bad mistake of looking at PRICE ONLY returns, not total returns. Same thing can happen say with REITS which are required to pay out almost all earnings.. Larry May be I have to wait longer but my experience with CCF (PCRDX and ...
by pop77
Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 3062

Re: International allocation

Nobody has brought this up yet, let me try. Out of curiosity I looked up the list of S&P 500 companies in Wikipedia and sorted it by headquarters. I found a bunch of companies headquartered in Dublin Ireland, some in Switzerland. My question is when we talk about allocation are we taking into ac...
by pop77
Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5170

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

What you have outlined in your example is an illusion. The market value of an equity portfolio depends on the price of a stock. The problem with price of a stock is that it is based upon Mr. Market's mood. One dollar of earnings may be value as 25 dollars when Mr. Market is in a good mood or it cou...
by pop77
Sun Aug 10, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

My take is, it's an illusion because, while you aren't ACTIVELY selling part of your shares when the market is down, the company is paying you a certain amount of it's equity as a dividend. You are effectively passively selling a portion your shares. And really, that's the basic point of all of thi...
by pop77
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

OK then. If you think accounting and math are illusions, then there is no point in me discussing this any further. Best of luck to you! Accounting and Math are not illusions, your belief that market is always fairly and uniformly valued so that you can sell at any time and get the same valuation is...
by pop77
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

True. Right now I can manage along the edges but once RMDs start, game over on taxes -- even with ROTH conversions. But my main point was that spending dividends is the same as selling stock (independent of tax issues). The idea that living off dividends enables one to "avoid selling stocks in...
by pop77
Fri Aug 08, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Stop Passing Up This Great Deal - In Money Magazine

What is the possibility of paying increased premiums for health insurance bought through Affordable Care Act(Obamacare)? Any Roth withdrawals don't count towards your income, however Traditional withdrawals count and can increase your premiums.
by pop77
Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stop Passing Up This Great Deal - In Money Magazine
Replies: 80
Views: 11516

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

I don't know, i tend to look toward bonds for high dividends (high yield, emerging markets, etc). If you don't care about the principal and only care about the dividend, why not go with high yield bond funds? Maybe I am missing something... Well, for example, in August 2004 the Vanguard high yield ...
by pop77
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Yes if the buyback is made with definite metrics when the stock is undervalued (Like Berkshire). Not when the companies buyback their shares at all time highs to hide share dilution due to stock options (Like Cisco, Intel etc. )
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

THank you so much pop77 for responding. I wanted to hear from dividend investors as well. I conclude that its a matter of preference on how someone invest. Rather it be dividend investor the step 1 and 2 investor, we all want the same goal. You seem to be doing well with your plan. I am not exclusi...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

I don't think this is a skill that the average person on the street can master or would be interested in mastering. While I don't disparage what you are doing, it is certainly not for the average person, in my opinion. And for that reason, I'm glad we can fall back on the relatively simple approach...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Here is what is funny to me. People talking about buying dividends stocks and working everyday just like me! Maybe I am slow or too simple thinking. I rather do step 1 and 2 ANYDAY of the week, then sit in front of a computer watching a 30-70 dividends stocks daily and keeping up with who is paying...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

As noted many times before, this forum is hardly the place for a rational discussion of income stock investing. It quickly degenerates into name calling and put downs; frankly, it's tiresome. To proudly assert that income stock investors are irrational, illogical, ignorant, with "blinders on&q...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11559

Re: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?

Prior to adopting the Bogleheads approach, I used a dividend growth stock approach to investing. Since my stocks are all well above what I paid for them, and yielding a nice return, I cannot bring myself to sell them and pay capital gains tax. So I just use the dividends to spend or to buy index fu...
by pop77
Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?
Replies: 95
Views: 6000

Re: A.C or No A.C?

I meant the 'brand' of hardwood floors is Armstrong. Here is a close approximation of what we have.

http://www.armstrong.com/flooring/hardw ... -89869.asp
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 902

Re: A.C or No A.C?

I have lived all the many decades of my life in homes with standard hardwood oak floors. I have run or not run the ac and opened and closed windows as I pleased, never once thinking about the impact on the floors. I'm happy to say that they all seemed to survive my ignorance. (The radiator leak was...
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 902

Re: A.C or No A.C?

Yes. I do this. We have humidity monitors inside the house. The question is whether to use A.C to control it (easy way) or run A.C on high humid days and switch off A.C and open windows on low humid days.
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 902

A.C or No A.C?

Living in a house with hardwood floors presents new challenges on whether to run A.C or not. Typically in summers I set the temperature relatively higher at 78 and use ceiling fans for extra cooling. I turn on A.C in May and not worry about it till September. I do not try to turn it off and on perio...
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 902

Re: i bonds or EE bonds?

The issue I have it with EE Bond is neither that the interest rate is 3.53% , nor it has a 20 year holding period. It is that you get 3.53% ONLY if you hold it for 20 years. Yes it is better than nothing or negative return during deflationary periods, but can't you use regular Treasury Bonds for def...
by pop77
Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds or EE bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6315

Re: i bonds or EE bonds?

What a great discussion! Nisi double thumbs up to your post. EE bonds only makes sense if you are willing to wait the entire 20 years and be satisfied with a return of NO MORE THAN 3.53%. If I know I have to wait 20 years and am NOT going to take money out, I would rather put that cash in Equity. If...
by pop77
Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds or EE bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6315

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

... Bond funds not only provide yield when stocks do well but also provide capital appreciation when stocks go down . ... They do not do that, at least not reliably. The correlation between stocks and bonds is close to zero. That means they could both go up at the same time, both go down at the sam...
by pop77
Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

I answered 0%. But I don't sell bonds re-balance. If I have to re-balance, I'll use new contribution. But even in 2008-9 crash, I used the same ratio for contribution. My initial fund started with a fixed 80/20 ratio and my contribution also has 80/20 ratio. Now the portfolio weights are close to 9...
by pop77
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Re: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target

I think there is levels of emotional maturity in investing 1. Not buying more stocks in an euphoria after stocks have gone up 2. Not selling stocks in a panic after market has crashed 3. Selling stocks in an euphoria after they have gone up (when everyone else is buying) 4.Buying stocks in a crash a...
by pop77
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target AA?
Replies: 64
Views: 4303

Re: Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility

Thanks for attaching the study. The premise for my question in fact is the opposite. When a volatile asset class is either being beaten down or goes up I do not want to rush into rebalancing immediately. I do not even want to rebalance when the asset class hits the bands. The reason is the volatile ...
by pop77
Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility
Replies: 12
Views: 1228

Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility

There have been various discussions on rebalancing here. There have been extensive discussions on time based Vs band based rebalancing. However would it be feasible to have a rebalancing band that is different per asset class that is based on its volatility? Should Emerging Market Stocks and Large C...
by pop77
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility
Replies: 12
Views: 1228

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

Why does the poll stop at a 5% cash allocation? Am I the only one who believes that cash is a worthy asset class in its own right? I don't think it is, but there is nothing wrong with deciding otherwise, and in that case the allocation could be more than 5%. The "dry powder" metaphor is e...
by pop77
Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

I don't have a cash allocation distinct from a bond allocation. I think dry powder is a misleading metaphor that does not apply to investing. I have actual cash at about 1% of portfolio right now, but rebalancing into stocks would happen by selling bonds and buying stocks. Why do you have 1% of you...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

Hi pop77, As sometimes happens, I can't choose any of the selections because they include two elements, in this case: how much cash; plus why. The whys prevent me from agreeing to any of the options. As it happens my portfolio has zero percent cash, but not for any of the reasons you list. There ar...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

I don't see how this would be sustainable unless you subsequently sold on upturns a.k.a market timing. If you hold 3% of your portfolio in cash, the market drops to whatever you're looking for, and then you buy equities with all of that cash - you no longer have cash in your investment portfolio. T...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Cash allocation in a portfolio

Do you have an allocation to cash (ST Bond Funds/CD's/Money Market Funds) as part of your portfolio? This is in addition to Emergency Funds which is not part of investment portfolio. The primary purpose of such allocation is to buy other asset classes Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate on downturns and corr...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3858

Re: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash

Got it. Slept on these thoughts yesterday and I think I will just stick to my current plan now. Soon I will start reducing my cash position and have it in VBTIX.

Thanks for your replies. Overthinking is often bad. :sharebeer
by pop77
Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash
Replies: 5
Views: 591

Re: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash

Suppose interest rates go up within 5 years, so that VBTIX yields 5% and one can buy a 1-year CD paying 5% as well just like back in 2007-2008. If you pay off the mortgage, you lose that possibility. Is such a possibility worth anything to you? Is that option worth anything to you? It would be wort...
by pop77
Sat Jul 05, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash
Replies: 5
Views: 591

Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash

First I want to mention I really do not want to discuss the 'secure' and 'good' feeling of paying off mortgage. I want to compare without any emotions the following three options. 1. Investing in VBTIX in Traditional 401(k). SEC yield at 2.12% - Tax bracket Fed+State: 30% 2. Making extra payments on...
by pop77
Sat Jul 05, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash
Replies: 5
Views: 591

Re: Rick Ferri's Emergency Fund

Recently did some research and stumbled upon GSY. Does seem to hold up well for a 3 month holding period. (No negative return if holding period is 3 months) Thoughts?
by pop77
Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's Emergency Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 7366

Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

livesoft wrote:I think in Quicken if you change the data-range to be 1-1-2014 to 12-31-2014, then the report will be "unannualized".


Great Thanks. Worked like a charm. 6.2% 'Un-Annualized' using XIRR in Quicken.
by pop77
Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?
Replies: 91
Views: 10074
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