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Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not grea

Another consideration I am struggling with is the "Foreign Tax Credit". For example, I hold DGS (Emerging Mkt Small Cap Dividend ETF) in my Roth. It is great that I do not have to pay tax on the dividend distributions but I have no way of claiming credit for all the foreign taxes that were...
by pop77
Mon Apr 07, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 27
Views: 2608

Re: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM b

A better chart will be a chart similar to a 'rolling return' chart from Morning Star. Of course it won't be easy to do this chart as you would have to add returns from dividend paying stocks and EMB and compute the chart. One could match their own holding period with the period at which the rolling ...
by pop77
Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 1970

Re: Dividends and the Magic Pants

Julian: this is all nice and swell, but what you end up saying is that dividend stocks are higher returning during crises, and this is simply not true. Here's why: think of company A and company B, both at $100 / share, good correlation except company B pays $5 / year dividend. Now suppose there's ...
by pop77
Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and the Magic Pants
Replies: 38
Views: 4556

Re: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?

Larry, Looks like you keep stirring this pot whenever you get a chance. Even according to value investing guru(god), uninterrupted dividends paid for long time periods is a reliable indicator of a company's quality. Page 157- The intelligent investor. More importantly, these dividends grow every yea...
by pop77
Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?
Replies: 126
Views: 5559

Minimum recommended allocation to an asset class

Hope this is not a repeat question-I did a search on the topic but did find a thread that discussed this. My question is whether there is a minimum allocation in percentage terms each asset class SHOULD have to make difference in terms of risk reduction or increase returns? The minimum I have for ce...
by pop77
Fri Feb 21, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum recommended allocation to an asset class
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Re: Drip chart

The best thing I have found so far is Morningstar's growth of 10,000 chart. Unfortunately you cannot directly pull it up for a stock. First pull up the growth chart for an index fund and add the ticker for the stock to compare it with. You will get the growth of the stock with dividends reinvested.
by pop77
Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DRIP chart
Replies: 4
Views: 580

Re: Portfolio Tweakers - Unite and be ashamed no more

Brought down the split between Emerging Markets/ International Developed markets in international allocation from 50/50 to 33/66. It turned out to be a good move for 2013. Long term don't know. As Emerging Markets are down, this means in 2014 more of the 'new money' will go into Emerging market stoc...
by pop77
Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Tweakers - Unite and be ashamed no more
Replies: 37
Views: 2431

Re: Portfolio S.D

Thanks. So I am not really missing anything by not knowing what my portfolio S.D is. The reason I wanted to know about the past is to understand how volatile my portfolio really was given my relatively low allocation to bonds (12%). Theoretically my portfolio could be considered an aggressive one, b...
by pop77
Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio S.D
Replies: 5
Views: 501

Re: Portfolio S.D

<BUMP>
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio S.D
Replies: 5
Views: 501

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

stock price /Mutual fund NAV is down 50% and I DON't have to sell. If you have a moderately conservative portfolio with a mix of bonds and stocks, you wouldn't be selling when prices are down, you'd be buying. Most people should have been buying in 2008/09. Very high/100% stock portfolios are of co...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

Long term capital gains have a marginal rate of tax which is not the bracket marginal rate. Roth conversions are taxed differently than LT Cap gains. There are also all sorts of phase outs so that your marginal rate can be higher than your bracket rate. Or there can be added income so that your mar...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

One more time: I feel mildly trapped by the dividends I receive. I cannot sell the underlying funds because that would cause huge tax liability. I cannot "not receive" the dividends --- they are paid out every year like clockwork. If there were no dividends, I could have more control over...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Portfolio S.D

I use quicken to track my expenses and investments and I am able to get the XIRR (Portfolio Return) through Quicken. Is there a way to calculate my portfolio Standard Deviation or Risk? I have multiple accounts (Roth/Regular/Traditional/401(k)/Spouse's etc)
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio S.D
Replies: 5
Views: 501

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

Our taxable investments are invested tax-efficiently, so while some stocks pay a 4% dividend rate, the average is about 2% in dividends most of which are qualified, so taxed the same whether in 25%, 28%, or 33% tax bracket. Dividends accounted for more than 15% of our taxable income the past few ye...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

Yes, I know. But the marginal tax rate is not always the rate associated with the bracket your taxable income falls in. I guess I am not understanding this. If my AGI is above 75,200 in 2013 my Marginal tax rate is 25% and I am in the 25% bracket right? If I do a Roth conversion my AGI just went up...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

The very first section of the tax code 26 USC 1 (2) The table which under paragraph (1) is to apply in lieu of the table contained in subsection (a), (b), (c), (d), or (e), as the case may be, with respect to taxable years beginning in any calendar year shall be prescribed— (A) except as provided i...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

Beware of getting mentally anchored on "the brackets" unless you are a college basketball fanatic. Taxes are a little tricky. It is easy for your taxable income to fall "in the XX% bracket" but your marginal tax rate is really YY%. I did a ROTH conversion in 2013 and my marginal...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

Don't forget that standard deductions and exemptions will increase, too. Also, one's income doesn't keep increasing monotonically. It may be surprising to young folks, but not to folks over 45, that one's income tends to plateau because there are fewer positions available going up the pyramid. Good...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Increase in the threshold for tax brackets

I am trying to project what my tax bracket would be in retirement (in 20 years) to make a choice between Traditional and Roth 401(k). If my assets and the income from the assets grow conservatively @8%, this would put me in a higher tax bracket than my current situation.However I am using the thresh...
by pop77
Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase in the threshold for tax brackets
Replies: 26
Views: 1569

Re: My 30-year Forecast

Great reference page. Helps me for my 'Value Averaging' projections. Two quick questions 1. All the NON-US Bonds are grouped under one category. Do you think this will be different for NON_US Developed Bonds Vs Emerging Market Bonds? Surprised to see a relatively low number here. 2. Do you think NON...
by pop77
Thu Jan 09, 2014 6:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-year Forecast
Replies: 63
Views: 6618

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

Thanks. At a quick pass looks like a risky fund but this might provide an opportunity. Will dig deeper. Especially worried about their top holding is a little known copper miner from Poland with a YTD of -34%. Yes negative 34%!
by pop77
Sun Dec 22, 2013 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 11532

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

What would be a good fund or ETF that represents 'global commodity producers'? I am currently looking at GNR, are there any other comparable ones? Vanguard's funds seem to be either Energy or Precious Metals centric, that too within US. Fidelity recently introduced some sector specific ETF's but the...
by pop77
Sun Dec 22, 2013 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 11532

Re: New ibond rates for nov 2013

If the variable portion is going to be same, it might be worth to wait and purchase in November with a small probability of the fixed rate will be greater than 0%. Yes you will loose one month interest but that is the price you pay for the small probability.
by pop77
Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New ibond rates for nov 2013
Replies: 45
Views: 7948

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

pop First CCF only hedges some types of risks, not all. They hedge supply not demand shocks. Which is why you should also consider adding duration which if you buy high quality bonds hedges the demand shock which CCF doesn't. Second, given the low expected return and the high volatility you don't w...
by pop77
Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 4746

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

If someone were interested in adding Collaterized Commodity Futures to their portfolio, what vehicles are available to the individual investor? What percentage of a portfolio should be in a CCF fund? Just curious. Thank you. I am using HACMX , the low cost version of PCRDX. PCRIX is not a good exam...
by pop77
Sun Oct 27, 2013 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 4746

Re: Shiller Thinks Owning a Home is a Terrible Investment

Home is not an investment from an asset appreciation perspective. However is a great investment from an inflation hedge on expense perspective. I am assuming you are using some sort of financial prudence in determining how big a home you need. It gives me great comfort that the biggest expense I hav...
by pop77
Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller Thinks Owning a Home is a Terrible Investment
Replies: 255
Views: 20780

Re: Consider energy + gold instead of a commodity CCF

PCRIX (or HACMX - the low expense equivalent), not only invests in commodity futures but also takes a bet on the bond market by investing in TIPS, Emerging Market Bonds etc. I am an owner of HACMX(was owning PCRDX but switched due to lower costs) and I have been wondering whether to own Commodity St...
by pop77
Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consider energy + gold instead of a commodity CCF
Replies: 11
Views: 784

Re: Individual Stocks - Do you own any?

I voted Yes. The US large cap portion of my portfolio is individual stocks. This portion has stocks with a dividend growth focus. I buy one or two stocks a year. Just wait for the opportunity, no pressure to invest.
by pop77
Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - Do you own any?
Replies: 97
Views: 6529

Re: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein

"Deep Risk," which was covered by Jason Zweig several weeks ago, is finally available in both Kindle and paperback from Amazon. But bogleheads really have no need to buy it, since Jason's article http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/07/26/shallow-risk-and-deep-risk-are-no-walk-in-the-woods...
by pop77
Sat Aug 31, 2013 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein
Replies: 73
Views: 10034

Re: Personal financial account aggregation software

I too have given up on the quest to find the perfect software that tracks expenses and investments that is in your desktop. Quicken premier is the best so far.(Only so far?) I paid 200 for a portfolio manager software which is at least 20 year back just a waste of money. Hopefully someone will build...
by pop77
Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal financial account aggregation software
Replies: 27
Views: 4348

Re: "15-Year Fixed Mortgage is Usually Preferable to 30"

The advice completely ignores the significant liquidity advantage of 30 yr amortization. It also ignores ARM products. Broad brushes usually paint over important details and that is exactly what has happened here. 30 yr fixed is a product heavily subsidized by the government. In many cases taking t...
by pop77
Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "15-Year Fixed Mortgage is Usually Preferable to 30"
Replies: 45
Views: 4973

Re: "15-Year Fixed Mortgage is Usually Preferable to 30"

David, I normally take your posts without question, but I'm confused on this one. A 15 year, 2.75% $100k mortgage with no overpayments is about (per Bankrate.com's calculator) $678.62 / mo and $22,151.89 of interest over the life of the loan. A 30 year, 2.75% $100k mortgage is $408.24 / mo. Add the...
by pop77
Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "15-Year Fixed Mortgage is Usually Preferable to 30"
Replies: 45
Views: 4973

Re: TIPS at highest yields in two years

Thanks G-Money and Cruncher. Looks like I should just stick to IBonds for now :(
by pop77
Fri Aug 23, 2013 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS at highest yields in two years
Replies: 87
Views: 7035

Re: TIPS at highest yields in two years

Ishares TIP now has a SEC yield of 2.52%. Does this mean you can expect a real yield of 2.52% going forward?
by pop77
Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS at highest yields in two years
Replies: 87
Views: 7035

Re: Fundamental Index ETF

Logically fundamental index makes sense to me. Take the weight of APPL in the S&P 500 index for example. When AAPL was at 700 it approximately 3.5% weight, when the stock fell to 398, the weight fell too. This means the S&P Index fund should have to buy AAPL at 700 and sell it at 398 . Grant...
by pop77
Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Index ETF
Replies: 12
Views: 948

Re: Time to abandon a global portfolio?

Pop77, this paper does nothing but state the obvious. What new information did you learn from this? As I mentioned in the post, it was more of reinforcement. The chart on page 2 is golden. I am going to print it and stick it at my desk. I have been wondering whether commodities is a worth investing...
by pop77
Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to abandon a global portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 2559

Time to abandon a global portfolio?

Excellent research paper from Gerstein-Fischer. http://gersteinfisher.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/GF_Rsrch_GlobalDomestic.pdf Courtesy: Wealthtrack. Much needed reassurance for many on this forum. It would have been great if they had included Inflation protected bonds,Emerging Markets Bonds and I...
by pop77
Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to abandon a global portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 2559

Re: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues

Even if these were the actual expected returns, this isn't a fair comparison; DLS, holding small-cap value stocks, is much riskier than a large-cap blend fund. You could increase the risk and expected returns of your 401(k) with no extra tax cost by selling bond funds and buying stock funds, so it ...
by pop77
Mon Aug 12, 2013 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues

I use the Roth currently for real estate, emerging market bond and commodities. If you are a tilting believer, and even if you aren't, I'd small-value tilt in my Roth before I'd use *any* of these. Small value tilt has lower costs and might offer higher expected returns. REITs are a sector that is ...
by pop77
Mon Aug 12, 2013 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues

I did run some numbers this weekend comparing FSPNX (Dev Market Large Cap- my 401k choice) and DLS (International Dev market Small Value tilt) Here is the 1 year rolling returns for the max period data is available in Morningstar http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=FSPNX&region=USA&am...
by pop77
Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Total Bond Fund (VBTIX) Vs IBonds

This seems to be a hot topic now. There are various threads discussing TIPS and IBonds as a part of a Bond portfolio for inflation hedge. There is even a couple of polls out there. I want to take this the extreme. How about having IBonds as a replacement to the total bond fund. I understand that the...
by pop77
Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund (VBTIX) Vs IBonds
Replies: 2
Views: 506

Re: What do you use your standard Savings/Share account for?

I maintain sinking funds for property taxes, insurance premiums, auto maintenance, home improvement/upkeep, and gifts, funded on an ongoing basis throughout the year; as well as 25% of my emergency funds. It's just one account, but in Quicken I treat it as separate accounts, one for each purpose. L...
by pop77
Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use your standard Savings/Share account for?
Replies: 18
Views: 1111

Re: Does a home mortgage use Simple or Compund Interest?

You're dead wrong on this. Paying during the grace period constitutes timely payment in the eyes of the bank and according to the terms of the note. No red flags are set off at the bank by using the grace period. Bruce +1 -Paying within grace has not affected my credit(based on credit report). Not ...
by pop77
Wed Aug 07, 2013 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does a home mortgage use Simple or Compund Interest?
Replies: 126
Views: 7359

Re: David Swenson lazy portfolio critique?

How about using IBonds instead of TIPS? You can also use IBonds in place of treasury bonds given the characteristics of IBonds (you cannot lose money). So IBonds would provide you deflation protection as well.
by pop77
Sun Aug 04, 2013 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swenson lazy portfolio critique?
Replies: 16
Views: 2460

Re: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues

True but the kick on DGS is milder than FPMAX. Emerging Market Stock, (FPMAX,DGS), Emerging Bond (PREMX, FNMIX) and international Bond (GIM) are all getting ass kicked. I would also add Municipal Bonds to this category. As I polled before, is now the time to buy more into these asset classes (might ...
by pop77
Sun Aug 04, 2013 9:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues

Some small cap value funds in EM are doing very well ( like DGS)
by pop77
Sat Aug 03, 2013 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Tracking Portfolio Performance

1) What do you use to track your portfolio’s performance? IRR? TWR? Some other measure? I don't. To me, it's not useful information. I have an asset allocation. I have a spreadsheet that aggregates all my investments and places them in the correct allocation and sub-allocation categories. It calcul...
by pop77
Sat Aug 03, 2013 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking Portfolio Performance
Replies: 6
Views: 738

Re: Tracking Portfolio Performance

Time weighted IRR (XIRR) is the best and probably the only thing you need. Quicken's IRR is XIRR that is all you need.
by pop77
Sat Aug 03, 2013 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking Portfolio Performance
Replies: 6
Views: 738

Re: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues

Current 25% expect it to be same at retirement.
by pop77
Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Deferral Vs Small Value premium -401k issues
Replies: 15
Views: 879
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