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Re: I Bonds - Now or November

tipswatcher wrote:
We're looking at $10 either way, eh?


$10, plus all the fun of pondering these things.


+1

It is $10/yr for a total of $300.. :D
by pop77
Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - Now or November
Replies: 8
Views: 1525

I Bonds - Now or November

With fixed rate at 0.1% and inflation expectations lower, does it make sense to buy this year's quota of I Bonds now or wait till the new rate in Dec?
by pop77
Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - Now or November
Replies: 8
Views: 1525

Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity

Today I had an interesting experience with my credit cards. I had a Citi Platinum card which I have not used for a long time. I recently saw the thread on the Citi Double cash card and I called in to see whether they can transfer the Citi Platinum card into the Double Cash card. To my surprise I was...
by pop77
Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity
Replies: 29
Views: 1920

Re: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation

Doesn't make sense to me. One reason for combining asset classes is for diversification. You don't want to risk a significant string of unhedged low returns. The misnamed Callan Periodic Table is useful for this kind of thought experiment, assuming you don't care enough to do a quantitative model. ...
by pop77
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Re: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation

Dr. Bernstein talks about something similar in "Ages of the Investor". He quotes a study that concluded using leverage when you are young is rational. The flaw in this is behavioral: the young investor, who hasn't benefited from the experience of living through market cycles, would lose h...
by pop77
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Bucket Path - Asset Allocation

There have been many threads here on glide paths, reverse glide paths, increasing and decreasing glide paths etc. Has there been any studies in following a bucket path towards asset allocation? Here is how I explain the bucket path. Say you decide you need $1M to retire. Assume you chose the three f...
by pop77
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Path - Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Re: International allocation

Nobody has brought this up yet, let me try. Out of curiosity I looked up the list of S&P 500 companies in Wikipedia and sorted it by headquarters. I found a bunch of companies headquartered in Dublin Ireland, some in Switzerland. My question is when we talk about allocation are we taking into a...
by pop77
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 73
Views: 4249

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

few things Second re PCRIX as pointed out seems you are making the very bad mistake of looking at PRICE ONLY returns, not total returns. Same thing can happen say with REITS which are required to pay out almost all earnings.. Larry May be I have to wait longer but my experience with CCF (PCRDX and ...
by pop77
Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2805

Re: International allocation

Nobody has brought this up yet, let me try. Out of curiosity I looked up the list of S&P 500 companies in Wikipedia and sorted it by headquarters. I found a bunch of companies headquartered in Dublin Ireland, some in Switzerland. My question is when we talk about allocation are we taking into ac...
by pop77
Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 73
Views: 4249

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

What you have outlined in your example is an illusion. The market value of an equity portfolio depends on the price of a stock. The problem with price of a stock is that it is based upon Mr. Market's mood. One dollar of earnings may be value as 25 dollars when Mr. Market is in a good mood or it cou...
by pop77
Sun Aug 10, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

My take is, it's an illusion because, while you aren't ACTIVELY selling part of your shares when the market is down, the company is paying you a certain amount of it's equity as a dividend. You are effectively passively selling a portion your shares. And really, that's the basic point of all of thi...
by pop77
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

OK then. If you think accounting and math are illusions, then there is no point in me discussing this any further. Best of luck to you! Accounting and Math are not illusions, your belief that market is always fairly and uniformly valued so that you can sell at any time and get the same valuation is...
by pop77
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

True. Right now I can manage along the edges but once RMDs start, game over on taxes -- even with ROTH conversions. But my main point was that spending dividends is the same as selling stock (independent of tax issues). The idea that living off dividends enables one to "avoid selling stocks in...
by pop77
Fri Aug 08, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Stop Passing Up This Great Deal - In Money Magazine

What is the possibility of paying increased premiums for health insurance bought through Affordable Care Act(Obamacare)? Any Roth withdrawals don't count towards your income, however Traditional withdrawals count and can increase your premiums.
by pop77
Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stop Passing Up This Great Deal - In Money Magazine
Replies: 80
Views: 11245

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

I don't know, i tend to look toward bonds for high dividends (high yield, emerging markets, etc). If you don't care about the principal and only care about the dividend, why not go with high yield bond funds? Maybe I am missing something... Well, for example, in August 2004 the Vanguard high yield ...
by pop77
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Yes if the buyback is made with definite metrics when the stock is undervalued (Like Berkshire). Not when the companies buyback their shares at all time highs to hide share dilution due to stock options (Like Cisco, Intel etc. )
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

THank you so much pop77 for responding. I wanted to hear from dividend investors as well. I conclude that its a matter of preference on how someone invest. Rather it be dividend investor the step 1 and 2 investor, we all want the same goal. You seem to be doing well with your plan. I am not exclusi...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

I don't think this is a skill that the average person on the street can master or would be interested in mastering. While I don't disparage what you are doing, it is certainly not for the average person, in my opinion. And for that reason, I'm glad we can fall back on the relatively simple approach...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Here is what is funny to me. People talking about buying dividends stocks and working everyday just like me! Maybe I am slow or too simple thinking. I rather do step 1 and 2 ANYDAY of the week, then sit in front of a computer watching a 30-70 dividends stocks daily and keeping up with who is paying...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

As noted many times before, this forum is hardly the place for a rational discussion of income stock investing. It quickly degenerates into name calling and put downs; frankly, it's tiresome. To proudly assert that income stock investors are irrational, illogical, ignorant, with "blinders on&q...
by pop77
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?

Prior to adopting the Bogleheads approach, I used a dividend growth stock approach to investing. Since my stocks are all well above what I paid for them, and yielding a nice return, I cannot bring myself to sell them and pay capital gains tax. So I just use the dividends to spend or to buy index fu...
by pop77
Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?
Replies: 95
Views: 5820

Re: A.C or No A.C?

I meant the 'brand' of hardwood floors is Armstrong. Here is a close approximation of what we have.

http://www.armstrong.com/flooring/hardw ... -89869.asp
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 879

Re: A.C or No A.C?

I have lived all the many decades of my life in homes with standard hardwood oak floors. I have run or not run the ac and opened and closed windows as I pleased, never once thinking about the impact on the floors. I'm happy to say that they all seemed to survive my ignorance. (The radiator leak was...
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 879

Re: A.C or No A.C?

Yes. I do this. We have humidity monitors inside the house. The question is whether to use A.C to control it (easy way) or run A.C on high humid days and switch off A.C and open windows on low humid days.
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 879

A.C or No A.C?

Living in a house with hardwood floors presents new challenges on whether to run A.C or not. Typically in summers I set the temperature relatively higher at 78 and use ceiling fans for extra cooling. I turn on A.C in May and not worry about it till September. I do not try to turn it off and on perio...
by pop77
Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 879

Re: i bonds or EE bonds?

The issue I have it with EE Bond is neither that the interest rate is 3.53% , nor it has a 20 year holding period. It is that you get 3.53% ONLY if you hold it for 20 years. Yes it is better than nothing or negative return during deflationary periods, but can't you use regular Treasury Bonds for def...
by pop77
Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds or EE bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6202

Re: i bonds or EE bonds?

What a great discussion! Nisi double thumbs up to your post. EE bonds only makes sense if you are willing to wait the entire 20 years and be satisfied with a return of NO MORE THAN 3.53%. If I know I have to wait 20 years and am NOT going to take money out, I would rather put that cash in Equity. If...
by pop77
Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds or EE bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6202

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

... Bond funds not only provide yield when stocks do well but also provide capital appreciation when stocks go down . ... They do not do that, at least not reliably. The correlation between stocks and bonds is close to zero. That means they could both go up at the same time, both go down at the sam...
by pop77
Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

I answered 0%. But I don't sell bonds re-balance. If I have to re-balance, I'll use new contribution. But even in 2008-9 crash, I used the same ratio for contribution. My initial fund started with a fixed 80/20 ratio and my contribution also has 80/20 ratio. Now the portfolio weights are close to 9...
by pop77
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Re: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target

I think there is levels of emotional maturity in investing 1. Not buying more stocks in an euphoria after stocks have gone up 2. Not selling stocks in a panic after market has crashed 3. Selling stocks in an euphoria after they have gone up (when everyone else is buying) 4.Buying stocks in a crash a...
by pop77
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target AA?
Replies: 64
Views: 4271

Re: Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility

Thanks for attaching the study. The premise for my question in fact is the opposite. When a volatile asset class is either being beaten down or goes up I do not want to rush into rebalancing immediately. I do not even want to rebalance when the asset class hits the bands. The reason is the volatile ...
by pop77
Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility
Replies: 12
Views: 1215

Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility

There have been various discussions on rebalancing here. There have been extensive discussions on time based Vs band based rebalancing. However would it be feasible to have a rebalancing band that is different per asset class that is based on its volatility? Should Emerging Market Stocks and Large C...
by pop77
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Band for an asset class based on volatility
Replies: 12
Views: 1215

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

Why does the poll stop at a 5% cash allocation? Am I the only one who believes that cash is a worthy asset class in its own right? I don't think it is, but there is nothing wrong with deciding otherwise, and in that case the allocation could be more than 5%. The "dry powder" metaphor is e...
by pop77
Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

I don't have a cash allocation distinct from a bond allocation. I think dry powder is a misleading metaphor that does not apply to investing. I have actual cash at about 1% of portfolio right now, but rebalancing into stocks would happen by selling bonds and buying stocks. Why do you have 1% of you...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

Hi pop77, As sometimes happens, I can't choose any of the selections because they include two elements, in this case: how much cash; plus why. The whys prevent me from agreeing to any of the options. As it happens my portfolio has zero percent cash, but not for any of the reasons you list. There ar...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

I don't see how this would be sustainable unless you subsequently sold on upturns a.k.a market timing. If you hold 3% of your portfolio in cash, the market drops to whatever you're looking for, and then you buy equities with all of that cash - you no longer have cash in your investment portfolio. T...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Cash allocation in a portfolio

Do you have an allocation to cash (ST Bond Funds/CD's/Money Market Funds) as part of your portfolio? This is in addition to Emergency Funds which is not part of investment portfolio. The primary purpose of such allocation is to buy other asset classes Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate on downturns and corr...
by pop77
Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3835

Re: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash

Got it. Slept on these thoughts yesterday and I think I will just stick to my current plan now. Soon I will start reducing my cash position and have it in VBTIX.

Thanks for your replies. Overthinking is often bad. :sharebeer
by pop77
Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash
Replies: 5
Views: 573

Re: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash

Suppose interest rates go up within 5 years, so that VBTIX yields 5% and one can buy a 1-year CD paying 5% as well just like back in 2007-2008. If you pay off the mortgage, you lose that possibility. Is such a possibility worth anything to you? Is that option worth anything to you? It would be wort...
by pop77
Sat Jul 05, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash
Replies: 5
Views: 573

Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash

First I want to mention I really do not want to discuss the 'secure' and 'good' feeling of paying off mortgage. I want to compare without any emotions the following three options. 1. Investing in VBTIX in Traditional 401(k). SEC yield at 2.12% - Tax bracket Fed+State: 30% 2. Making extra payments on...
by pop77
Sat Jul 05, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return: Mortgage Vs VBTIX Vs Cash
Replies: 5
Views: 573

Re: Rick Ferri's Emergency Fund

Recently did some research and stumbled upon GSY. Does seem to hold up well for a 3 month holding period. (No negative return if holding period is 3 months) Thoughts?
by pop77
Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's Emergency Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 6490

Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

livesoft wrote:I think in Quicken if you change the data-range to be 1-1-2014 to 12-31-2014, then the report will be "unannualized".


Great Thanks. Worked like a charm. 6.2% 'Un-Annualized' using XIRR in Quicken.
by pop77
Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?
Replies: 91
Views: 9793

Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Is there a mathematical way to 'un-annualize' XIRR? I use Quicken and their performance reports show only XIRR.
by pop77
Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?
Replies: 91
Views: 9793

Re: "Average investors don't settle for average?"

The only generalizations that can be made about active investors is that they don't settle for "average", which is what passive investors do. Not really. Passive investors know that "average" investors usually outperform "active" investors. The arithmetic is irrefutabl...
by pop77
Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9301

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

Investors who are serious about active investing do a lot of research into funds and portfolio managers. Studies that compare active vs passive management seem to assume that investors pick the average or mediocre funds. My thinking is that for all the intellectual energy spent on a board like this...
by pop77
Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9301

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

The point I was trying to make with my GIM and FNMIX example is that if we consider foreign bonds as part of your equity portfolio, looks like they provide better risk adjusted returns . For example instead have a 12% allocation to emerging market stocks can one have 9% in emerging market stocks and...
by pop77
Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9301

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

I own Templeton Global Bond Closed End Fund (GIM) and Fidelity Emerging Market Bond Fund (FNMIX). They have performed much better than VBTIX but with more risk over time. The question is whether I should redistribute the assets in these funds into EAFE index fund (FSIIX) and Emerging Market Index Fu...
by pop77
Sun Jun 29, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9301

Re: Renegotiating Extra Escrow payments after analysis

When I got the house the town did not value it fully as the house was new, the property tax was low. I am ok with paying the increased property tax (300 more per month), the problem is another increase to offset the deficit in the escrow balance so the total increase is 775 per month. I wanted to ch...
by pop77
Wed Jun 18, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renegotiating Extra Escrow payments after analysis
Replies: 9
Views: 505

Renegotiating Extra Escrow payments after analysis

I bought a new home recently and the Escrow for property tax was lower as the estimated property tax did not accurately reflect the final payment. Now the mortgage servicer has done an escrow analysis and sent me a letter that I should be paying an increased escrow to reflect the property tax increa...
by pop77
Wed Jun 18, 2014 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renegotiating Extra Escrow payments after analysis
Replies: 9
Views: 505
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