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Re: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investi

I believe this is the GS report the data came from. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CEwQFjAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fassetmanagement.gs.com%2Fcontent%2Fdam%2Fgsam%2Fpdfs%2Fus%2Fen%2Ffund-literature%2Finvestment-solution%2Frdg-investment-solu...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 20, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investing
Replies: 38
Views: 3458

Re: Is VG Portfolio Tool too aggressive?

PH, one more thing that you might have to consider--sequence of returns. If you really are considering retiring in 5 years and your proposed initial withdrawal rate is 4% plus inflation increases, a bad sequence of returns near or just after retirement could cause you a shorfall. To avoid that, you ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 20, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VG Portfolio Tool too aggressive?
Replies: 16
Views: 788

Re: Asness response to value redundancy

Very interesting read and nice to see that value isn't dead and that there are sort of investment products that capture all 5 of those metrics. (mkt, smb, hml, rmw, umd).

Yes, that would be called the total stock market index. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 20, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness response to value redundancy
Replies: 5
Views: 681

Re: Is VG Portfolio Tool too aggressive?

Bogleheads, As I turn 50 this year and hope to retire in the next 5-10 years I am reassessing my need and willingness to take risk. This morning I used the Vanguard Recommendation tool at https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/tools/recommendation to help inform my decision. After several adjustmen...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 20, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VG Portfolio Tool too aggressive?
Replies: 16
Views: 788

Re: Scared to Invest

Dollar cost averaging is a specific term meaning investing a large amount of cash. Do you have a large amount of cash to invest, or are you talking about not contributing to retirement now and are wondering when you should start contributing from income. What is the difference of making no returns w...
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scared to Invest
Replies: 40
Views: 2443

Re: Please help: too liquid and asset allocation questions!

Singlemoi,

I agree with Duckie's suggestion. Only thing I'd add it max the 401k. If you can't afford the salary deduction, increase contributions and then draw from taxable to make up the short fall.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help: too liquid and asset allocation questions!
Replies: 4
Views: 436

Re: Good, Brief Articles on the Boglehead Way?

Note an article, but a good Boglehead discussion on individual stocks.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=153228

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 19, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good, Brief Articles on the Boglehead Way?
Replies: 8
Views: 831

Re: Is this market timing?

I don't recommend changes like you are considering because it's much to easy to be made a fool of by what you think the market will do vs what it actually does. For instance, valuations can run high for two or three years, all the while generating very strong returns. I think you are better off ridi...
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this market timing?
Replies: 10
Views: 596

Re: campaign for better 403B

It's doubtful your 403B plan is subject to ERISA rules. The fact that there are no lower cost options and no index funds is a red flag. Possibly. But it seems like a non-profit organization of that size would be subject to ERISA. If I were a fiduciary for such a high fee plan, I would be worried ab...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: campaign for better 403B
Replies: 17
Views: 998

Re: VWINX declining, any ideas why?

Yahoo is showing a price chart, not a total returns chart. Now, please do not look at this stuff on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. Be a long term investor.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWINX declining, any ideas why?
Replies: 42
Views: 3702

Re: myRA up and running, but worth it?

From the terms link:
Termination at $15,000 or Thirty (30) years. The Retirement Savings Bond held in your myRA will stop earning interest when your myRA balance reaches $15,000 in value or thirty (30) years after your myRA is opened and first funded, whichever comes first.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: myRA is now open
Replies: 31
Views: 1899

Re: campaign for better 403B

It's doubtful your 403B plan is subject to ERISA rules. The fact that there are no lower cost options and no index funds is a red flag. http://www.dwt.com/advisories/403b_Plans_Covered_by_ERISA_or_Exempt_07_09_2008/ It also may be very difficult to find a fiduciary, if one actually exists. http://ww...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: campaign for better 403B
Replies: 17
Views: 998

Re: new 401k enrollment - choices.. which is least worst?

Welcome, bartleby,

You need to provide fund names and expense ratios. You can edit your original post.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: new 401k enrollment - which funds least worst? NEW INFO
Replies: 6
Views: 567

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund (VWEAX) ?

As a reference, in 2008, VWEAX lost 21%. Total stock market lost 37%, total bond was up 5%. If you decide to hold VWEAX, limit exposure and treat it as a stock because it's much more volatile than a bond fund with an AA rating.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund (VWEAX) ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1477

Re: With this uncertainty, where to put $200k plus....

Hi dan, My original plans were the Lifestrategy conservative fund, but I am wondering if it wouldn't make sense to sit back and watch for a few weeks, parking it in something ultra safe like a money market while things settle down. Things never settle down, and if you think they have and all is well...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: With this uncertainty, where to put $200k plus....
Replies: 26
Views: 2501

Re: Convince Wife About Value of IRA - Good Resources

There are many articles on the web about loss of return due to taxes. Here's just one.

http://individual.troweprice.com/retail ... /index.jsp

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince Wife About Value of IRA - Good Resources
Replies: 13
Views: 1114

Re: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement

Here's a link to the reverse glide path study by Kitces and Pfau. My suggestion above is based on this study. I'm not saying it's the right strategy for everyone, but those entering into retirement should be aware of possible dangers and be familiar with information on risk and the research in that ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement
Replies: 26
Views: 2284

Re: How FINRA saved my Grandma's bacon

But wait, it's gets even better. “The Multi-Strategy Growth & Income Fund may serve as a core holding for long-term investors and can potentially provide consistent income, lower volatility, and a hedge against inflation through a combination of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Equity Income Inves...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How FINRA saved my Grandma's bacon
Replies: 21
Views: 2010

Re: Lockheed Martin Case Puts 401(k) Plans On Trial

Thanks, Bob. Two important points are raised--one is that company employees responsible for 401k plans (one must be a fiduciary) are woefully unaware of what high costs do and the violation of ERISA rules that they present. Two, many companies don't seem to really care.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lockheed Martin Case Puts 401(k) Plans On Trial
Replies: 6
Views: 1480

Re: Went "all in" Nov 17-21 in VTTHX (2035) - worried...

jbrinker wrote: This all started because I wanted to be smart and high-tech, and created all my portfolios into Google finance. Just to have a look and an easy way to compare things across these multiple portfolios. That led to me watching ... and worrying. I guess hitting the "zoom out" b...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Went "all in" Nov 17-21 in VTTHX (2035) - worried...
Replies: 26
Views: 3268

Re: Went "all in" Nov 17-21 in VTTHX (2035) - worried...

Well, I finally made the decision back in November regarding all this cash our Trusts have - over 4M. We took it all and I decided the best fit, long-term choice was to put it in a mix duplicating the Vanguard 2035 retirement fund. VTTHX. (This because the primary beneficiaries of these two trusts ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Went "all in" Nov 17-21 in VTTHX (2035) - worried...
Replies: 26
Views: 3268

Re: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement

I am 63 and planning to retire at 66. I can live comfortably with SS and 4% of my investments. Almost all my investments are in IRA's and 401K's and are well diversified. Right now I have only 20% of my investments in bonds. Intermediate corporate Admiral shares. The rest are in index funds and ETF...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement
Replies: 26
Views: 2284

Re: My first non fee advisor meeting..confused

I just got home from my first-time meeting with a no-fee advisor.

Where does one find a no-fee advisor? Not compensated at all?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My first non fee advisor meeting..confused
Replies: 35
Views: 4625

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

Here's a link to the Barron's article. One big problem is the S&P500 did not exist for that entire time period, so it's a rather funny statement. http://online.barrons.com/articles/a-glimmer-of-hope-for-active-fund-managers-1418437745 I'll put this article into the "we couldn't fund much to...
by pkcrafter
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1574

Re: Mebane Faber: 78% of the time you are in a drawdown

baw, drawdown definition: The drawdown is the measure of the decline from a historical peak in some variable (typically the cumulative profit or total open equity of a financial trading strategy). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drawdown_%28economics%29 I think this is the accepted definition, although...
by pkcrafter
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber: 78% of the time you are in a drawdown
Replies: 18
Views: 1946

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

Some people say a factor in deciding stock to bond ratio is based on risk tolerance. But is that actually the case for a person planning to hold an investment for 30-70 years? Yes, it's based an individual's tolerance and his/her knowledge of risk. An investor can have a very inappropriate level of...
by pkcrafter
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2657

Re: Mebane Faber: 78% of the time you are in a drawdown

livesoft wrote:
livesoft wrote:If one isn't ready to lose capital, then one isn't ready to invest. They go hand-in-hand: Losses and investing. One cannot avoid losses if they invest.

Ah, livesoft, you have topped yourself--livesoft quoting.......livesoft. :happy
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber: 78% of the time you are in a drawdown
Replies: 18
Views: 1946

Re: Mebane Faber: 78% of the time you are in a drawdown

Papito, the time frame is 1972-2014, so during that time span, we were in drawdown 78% of the time. Note: this is real returns , so the real returns from 1973-1983 were negative (drawdown) 100% of the time. baw, I think drawdown is a word commonly used here--that's where I learned it. :happy Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber: 78% of the time you are in a drawdown
Replies: 18
Views: 1946

Lifetime Income Provided Through 401k

On October 23 and 24, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of Labor (DOL) issued coordinated guidance on lifetime income provided through target date funds held by retirement plans. http://www.bna.com/legal-alert-irs-n17179911979/ The guidance considers a retirement plan investment...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifetime Income Provided Through 401k
Replies: 0
Views: 444

Re: Self-Managed All-Seasons Risk-Parity Allocation?

eolsencreative, You are a new poster, but you have not provided any information, so it's difficult to provide good feedback. I did notice in another post that you were asking about what to do until you saved up enough for admiral shares, so I'm going to assume you are a young new investor. It is als...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Self-Managed All-Seasons Risk-Parity Allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1147

Re: Equal weight ETF (Guggenheim's RSP) vs Vanguard VTI???

The cap-weighted index represents an image of where investors have invested their money, so at least it has a rational strategy. When you invest a dollar, a very large company will get a percentage of that dollar based on company size, and a smaller company will get an amount equal to it's size-- a ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equal weight ETF (Guggenheim's RSP) vs Vanguard VTI???
Replies: 19
Views: 1787

Re: Asset placement for someone retiring early

How does SEPP get in this?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset placement for someone retiring early
Replies: 4
Views: 796

Re: Request 401K Assistance - Plan Offers 0% Exp. Ratio Opti

American Trust Large Cap Core Benchmark: S&P 500 TR USD Turnover %: 230.87 Are you sure about the turnover, it's extremely high. Turnover is an internal cost that runs roughly 1%/100% turnover, so the turnover cost in this fund is >2%. This just doesn't make sense for a fund that's supposed to ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Request 401K Assistance - Plan Offers 0% Exp. Ratio Options
Replies: 21
Views: 1510

Re: any studies of real-world retirement outcomes?

Boglerulez, I think asking what happened is like relying on past returns to guide you. Like stock returns, retirees have faced and will face several periods during their retirement that are far from typical, whatever that is. During the 50's and 60's retirees had defined pension plans and stocks yie...
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any studies of real-world retirement outcomes?
Replies: 20
Views: 1868

Re: Retirees: Withdrawals by time and amount

I make one withdrawal near the end of the year to avoid having taxes held any longer than necessary. I make the withdrawal from the assets that are up and need rebalancing.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Withdrawals by time and amount
Replies: 36
Views: 3423

Re: Cochrane Blog - Level, Slope and Curve for Stocks-FF/Fac

Thanks for posting this. I don't fully understand it either, but I'm sure some of the math rats would like to have a look, and I would like to hear what they say. Maybe they will come up with something more useful than I did.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cochrane Blog - Level, Slope and Curve for Stocks-FF/Factors
Replies: 1
Views: 334

Re: 6 years into career, finally time to address the unavoid

Person, you've provide a lot of information, but some important facts are still needed. Please follow this link on posting recommendations. Married? Tax bracket? Funds in 401k and expense ratios. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212 Here's a link to information on 529 investi...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 years into career, finally time to address the unavoidable
Replies: 28
Views: 4585

Re: Asness: "Efficient Frontier Theory for the Long Run"

Thanks, it's a good read and reminder that it's tough to see the long term when living through a series of short terms which do not look anything like as promised, but that is precisely what we experience. And it's a mistake to constantly change strategy and holdings in an attempt to improve long te...
by pkcrafter
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2606

Re: Leverage and P/e10

So long as the expected return exceeds the borrowing rate, leverage is worthwhile.

The expected return is not the return.

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”.
John Maynard Keynes

best of luck,
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage and P/e10
Replies: 35
Views: 2388

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

In other words, if you have enough set aside in very safe assets to provide for your expenses until approximately age 100 (aka liability matching portfolio), then you can do whatever you want with the rest, including putting all of the excess into equities. I'm concerned that people who don't have ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7848

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

Just a random thought... Regarding the liability matched retirement portfolio: it seems to carry an assumption about equity risk that isn't present in the accumulation phase, and that is equities may not rebound, but in the accumulation phase there is always the assumption that they will. Paul Paul...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7848

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

Erwin wrote: In Kitces paper he gives a bucket approach for consideration. 1) If equities are up, take the retirement spending from equities 2) If equities are down but bonds are up, take the spending from bonds instead 3) If both equities and bonds are down in the same year, take the distribution f...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7848

Re: Vox: Why your brain loves procrastination

Thanks, good article.

Tim Pychyl--What a great name for a psychologist. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vox: Why your brain loves procrastination
Replies: 7
Views: 1166

Re: New Investor: Portfolio Advice

Welcome, settle, You now have your overall AA where you want it. So in the 401k, use the same funds 60/40. Consider all accounts as one portfolio, so as assets and equities grow in the 401k, hold taxable constant and make any rebalancing changes in the tax deferred accounts so the 60/40 allocation i...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor: Portfolio Advice
Replies: 12
Views: 977

Re: Retired - Portfolio Feedback wanted

C_S, I'm not sure I understand your situation. Your FA sounds like he's providing exactly what you ask. If you have a specific question, it sounds like he will be happy to answer it. I had fewer and fewer questions for him as I didn't need to touch the portfolio much. When I do talk with him, he is ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired - Portfolio Feedback wanted
Replies: 6
Views: 1197

Re: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index

placeholder wrote:Berkshire Hathaway is not a mutual fund of any sort.


+1


Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2247

Re: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index

Unless managed by someone with overriding eleemosynary instincts, I don't think so. But I put the question on behalf of someone else and invite reasonable replies. Thanks, Bpgleheads. As already mentioned, the answer is yes if you consider the outrageous costs of a few index funds out there, but if...
by pkcrafter
Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2247

Re: reverse rollover IRA to 401k?

nmop, Duckie has done his best to unravel your situation, but you need to clarify a few things. 1. Is there any way to avoid paying tax on the money earned by the amount I invested in the IRA this year? I know its not much, but Uncle Sam takes too much of my money as it is :( As Duckie noted, you ca...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: reverse rollover IRA to 401k?
Replies: 8
Views: 956

The 7% Solution-Preferreds, a retirement income diversifier?

Bruce Miller's musing on SPIAs vs preferred stocks paying 7% on the M* board. Bruce discusses individual preferred stocks, but you can also buy an ETF such as PFF that yields 6.95%. Another way to diversify risk and lower the amount you to give an insurance company? http://socialize.morningstar.com/...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 7% Solution-Preferreds, a retirement income diversifier?
Replies: 3
Views: 657
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