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Re: Investing advice for beginner

ByeFelicia wrote: maxing out IRA (current 6k, just started) Just wanted to double check this. Max contribution per year is $5,500. OK if two contributions in two years. Your sister's saving rate is very good; however, to evaluate her portfolio we would need to know what she's invested in and what fu...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing advice for beginner
Replies: 6
Views: 480

Re: Need serious help regarding my company's retirement plan

All of the Profit Sharing, Pension, 401k, and Roth 401k is lumped into your total Trust balance. All of the money is in one big pool and invested as a whole unit. We do not get individual employee investment options - and in fact, we don't even really know where this money is being invested. Obviou...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need serious help regarding my company's retirement plan
Replies: 13
Views: 1043

Re: What to do when you don't meet the minimums

Carofe wrote: I'm just coming to the conclusion that it is just better to put the money in a Balanced Fund at Vanguard and change it to what I want when it reaches the minimum I need for the four core portfolio. You're on the right track. What you're thinking is what most new investors do. I would s...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do when you don't meet the minimums
Replies: 15
Views: 1235

Re: data mining vs. historical performance

Countmein wrote: Paul, I think you're misinterpreting Bogle. Note he says: we are professing our faith that the long-term success of the U.S. economy and the nation's financial markets will continue in the future. He explicitly says we're hoping the success continues. In other words, the basis of ou...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: data mining vs. historical performance
Replies: 39
Views: 1458

Re: data mining vs. historical performance

Great post. I wonder this myself all the time. You will find many an admonition about backtesting/data mining. But ironically, belief in backtesting is the bedrock foundation of Boglehead/Cult of Equities/Stocks for the Long Run investing. It's all about believing in the Great Backtest which is equ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: data mining vs. historical performance
Replies: 39
Views: 1458

Re: The Biggest Risk

Perhaps the biggest investment risk for all investors is not educating themselves in money management and investment basics.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Biggest Risk
Replies: 18
Views: 1935

Re: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?

I don't think the different time frames in Mrpotatohead's examples makes much of a difference. What's being pointed out is you can have times when bonds are a bad investment and times when stocks are a bad investment. We don't know future hard times, but we do know they will appear. The bottom line ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?
Replies: 35
Views: 3237

Re: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?

new2Bogle2, risk is not an on or off thing when discussing retirement goals. Let's define risk as not having the money you expected to have when you need it. For retirement, you will need at least 25x your expenses on the date of retirement...and beyond. By not investing in stocks you run the risk o...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?
Replies: 35
Views: 3237

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

We have moved from the main topic, but I wanted to address this: Dr. Andrew Lo said that the markets are getting so volatile these days, that the buy and hold strategies don't work anymore. My answer to this is buy and hold does not work when investors don't hold. Investors don't handle volatility v...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jan 26, 2015 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3081

Re: Understanding rollover IRA

I don't understand how it is OK to commingle funds from a 401k (pre-tax contributions) and a rollover IRA (post-tax contributions) . We have to confirm that you have after-tax money in the rollover. The way that might happen is the rollover is from a previous 401k where you contributed after tax mo...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding rollover IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 436

Re: Is a financial advisor going to help?

Welcome Padronpepper. You are already gathering useful information from the forum, so stick with it. Once you get your answers and you still have questions, then you an use an hourly fee-only advisor. Retiredjg wrote: #3 - if you are in the highest tax bracket, it will cost you more to sell that stu...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jan 26, 2015 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a financial advisor going to help?
Replies: 20
Views: 1935

Re: What Experts Say About Total Market Index Funds

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR :thumbsup


Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say About Total Market Index Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 1161

Re: Small and value: are they diversifiers?

Thanks Nisi, but: All results are subject to endpoint choice, and that's a big problem. In any case, I am showing data for the time period 1927-2013 inclusive. if you are going to use such a short time frame.... :happy Also, you must subtract small junk from small quality as AQR has done in finding ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small and value: are they diversifiers?
Replies: 6
Views: 888

Re: What about this withdrawl strategy?

duffer, if you read Kitces, then you may be able to see that buckets is simply a mental accounting tactic that makes some investors feel more comfortable because they believe it provides more control. The total return view also provides control, and in the end it is a straight-forward approach that ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jan 24, 2015 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What about this withdrawl strategy?
Replies: 23
Views: 2052

Re: Recommendation for a Fee only CFP in Orange County, CA

This looks interesting, but I have no experience with him. Also note there is a difference between a financial planner and an investment advisor. He also may be too far away from you. Lots of good info on the site. http://www.financialplannerpasadena.com/financial-planning-reading-list-28.htm I real...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recommendation for a Fee only CFP in Orange County, CA
Replies: 3
Views: 390

Re: New to Forum - keep advisor Y/N + fund help - thx!

Furthermore, when a single fund represents >5% of the portfolio, there really is no diversification benefit. Paul What Paul wanted to use was "when a single fund represents < 5% of the portfolio". Thanks for catching that 'cause that's what Paul intended to use. :confused Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Forum - keep advisor Y/N + fund help - thx!
Replies: 9
Views: 919

Re: New to Forum - keep advisor Y/N + fund help - thx!

Dale wrote: I'll repeat the WOW. This may be the most convoluted portfolio ever posted on the forum. Yeah, wow! I think the highest number of funds I've ever seen was 48. Gotta wonder why an advisor would do this. Perhaps a kickback from some of the funds, although he did include Vanguard. Did he pu...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Forum - keep advisor Y/N + fund help - thx!
Replies: 9
Views: 919

Re: How to AA Risk Portfolio

Random Musings wrote:
If I would plan to use the majority in the near term, I would be conservative. If way down the road, I would be more aggressive. If I planned to spend this gravy in a more even fashion, I'd consider the 4% withdrawal rate using a 50/50 to 60/40 portfolio.

Aaaaand a +1.
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to AA Risk Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Sound like a stock market wizard

Henry Blodget on meaningless market phrases...

http://www.businessinsider.com/meaningl ... 14-12?op=1

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sound like a stock market wizard
Replies: 2
Views: 693

Re: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investi

If you build it, they will come.
Or, If you create it, they will pay! Ooooh, just wait 'till Arnott, Asness, and Booth get wind of this. Fundamental micro-regional investing. The 6th factor!!! Diversification? no-No-NO! Multifariousness, yes!
by pkcrafter
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investing?
Replies: 21
Views: 1614

Re: Help understanding Nationalwide 401k expense

No, you can't get a supplemental 401k anywhere, but you/she could open a traditional or Roth IRA at Vanguard.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help understanding Nationalwide 401k expense
Replies: 13
Views: 864

Re: Not grasping the backdoor roth-please help

It appears your brokerage isn't giving you the right information. Doc has provided correct information, and here's a specific example from a few years ago that's very close to your situation. No, the 100k isn't taxed, but most of your conversion is. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2012/01/...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not grasping the backdoor roth-please help
Replies: 11
Views: 1418

Re: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery

Exhibit A of why Bogleheads are not immune to recency bias/performance chasing. +1 Yes, very short-sighted. The Boglehead rule is you stay diversified. What happened to buy low? Doesn't sound so good when an asset class is actually underperforming? If you aren't happy with at least one of your inve...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery
Replies: 121
Views: 10512

Re: My Investment Owner's contract

Ned said, "Investors have lost more money trying to avoid volatility than they have lost from the volatility itself." This is a quote worth keeping. Volatility is, in itself, not really a risk. It is only a risk when it makes an investor flinch and commit a bad behavioral mistake. Real ris...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Investment Owner's contract
Replies: 13
Views: 1044

Re: Efficient markets: luck v. skill

Thanks Richard, this brings up something I find interesting. When looking at the best actively managed fund companies we find Vanguard, TRPrice, Dodge and Cox, and American have good long term records. I think American fund performance does not account for front end loads, but putting this aside, al...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient markets: luck v. skill
Replies: 37
Views: 2400

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I like Nisiprius' charts but I do not understand them. Although I am neither a mathematician nor a statistician, there is no doubt in my mind that we cannot make money betting on coin toss. It's just a random binary outcome. Okay, if you're so sure, perhaps you would be willing to bet some serious ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16555

Re: Been out of market for 5 years, when get back in?

Welcome harborpoint. It won't do much good to look back, so we have to start from where we are right now. In order to provide useful suggestions please provide information as described in this post.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... f=1&t=6212

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Been out of market for 5 years, when get back in?
Replies: 25
Views: 3060

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Thanks for the reply, NP. The references speak of volatility, but perhaps mean reversion is implied as stocks and stock markets are what's being discussed. Here's a couple of more simplified articles on the topic. But wait, there's more-- This from the second link: The demon portfolio outpeformed bu...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16555

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Maybe if we take a simpler look at this--looking at the forest instead of the trees. The following links cover the topic from Shannon's Demon to the Kelly criterion. When applied to investing the underlying application is about rebalancing benefits. At least this approach can be understood by most e...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16555

Re: Dazed, Confused and Upset

obgyn65 wrote:I use EJ only to buy CDs and munis, nothing else. I pay zero fees because I keep my current account with them over $2500.


Zero fees?? Are you buying individual munis? Do you know what the transaction fees are?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 13, 2015 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dazed, Confused and Upset
Replies: 63
Views: 6284

Re: Can assuming more risk, increase returns?

i read that a young person who has a multi decade time horizon, can assume more risk. I don't mean single stocks, but with low cost index funds. When one assums more risk, does that typically mean higher long term returns? When I read about risk levels I would assume risk is another way to say conc...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can assuming more risk, increase returns?
Replies: 41
Views: 2535

Re: What to do with my stupid losses?

What to do with my stupid losses?

Just be sure you know the difference between stupid losses and stupid investments. :happy


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with my stupid losses?
Replies: 16
Views: 1537

Re: Marketcap vs. FACTOR indexing

Hello and Happy New Year to everyone who contributed to this thread. In logically thinking this over again, FACTOR index is the way to go if you want any chance to beat the market. If you invest in the entire market, you will never have any chance of any ALPHA (beating the market). FACTOR investing...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketcap vs. FACTOR indexing
Replies: 15
Views: 1631

Re: Buffett quote of the day: Market is a "Drunken Psycho"

Thanks Browser. When reading your interesting discussion on random coin flips, a quote from Keynes came to mind, The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Buffet has outdone Keynes with the drunken psycho image, and this is why the coin flip idea applied to investing would u...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett quote of the day: Market is a "Drunken Psycho"
Replies: 12
Views: 2813

Re: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics

Or maybe this: I know I'm not supposed to sell in a severe downturn, but... (add your own poorly rationalized reason here).

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics
Replies: 38
Views: 2409

Re: VHT - What could cause the price to drop?

I realize that buying on past performance isn't advisable, but on the other hand...

First step in making a behavioral error is rationalizing something you know you shouldn't do.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VHT - What could cause the price to drop?
Replies: 9
Views: 955

Re: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life

I have not read this book and agree he can be an entertaining writer.Would temper my enthusiasm for any advice he may offer because of his panic in 2008-2009.Maybe a case of do what I say not what I do or we are all risk takers until risk arrives. Stein admits he's made a lot of costly mistakes and...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life
Replies: 18
Views: 4469

Re: 403b rollover transfer question.

Jeremey, it sounds like your 401b plan ranks right up there with the worst. You can look at the annuity options, but you will have a difficult time gathering all the hidden fees. Considering your 403b, I'd be inclined to roll the old plan to Vanguard if it's allowed. If not allowed, then you will pr...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403b rollover transfer question.
Replies: 78
Views: 5818

Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life

Interesting book by Ben Stein.

How to Really Ruin Your Financial Life and Portfolio.

Click on the book cover, scroll down to take a look at the acknowledgments, preface, and introduction.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life
Replies: 18
Views: 4469

Re: 403b rollover transfer question.

Jeremyl, you are getting good advice from two of the best, but placeholder's suggestion should also be considered. You have not provided enough information about your situation, so following this suggested format may be helpful: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212 It's doubt...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403b rollover transfer question.
Replies: 78
Views: 5818

Re: What does large cap add

It seems that most recommended portfolios have an allocation to large cap or total market (which usually gets a lot of large cap). A portfolio with other equities gets exposure to the market factor, without whatever direct exposure would come from having a large cap or total market fund. What then ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does large cap add
Replies: 11
Views: 1072

Re: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?

Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?


No.
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?
Replies: 60
Views: 7024

Re: 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

financial Dave wrote: Here is a fun fact for you: Last year I finished 211th --- exactly in the middle of 422 Bogleheads. This year the SP500 finished up 211 points and I finished in 1st place. Uh, does this mean the S&P500 will be up 1 point this year? fd wrote: Wow, I just took a look at the c...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER
Replies: 23
Views: 2440

Re: Severe criticism of DFA's "profitability" factor researc

Fitting way to kick-off 2015 by dragging up an old post on factor of the month. I'm not trying to be cynical, but don't investors realize that active fund managers have been using all of these criteria (we call them factors) for a long time to select stocks, sectors, and portfolios. For my first pos...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Severe criticism of DFA's "profitability" factor research
Replies: 103
Views: 11541

Re: Quick question on percentages

Total stock market does not have a tilt to small, it is simply the market. The returns and volatility of total market and S&P500 are very similar, but my choice would be total stock market. If you want a fund that is somewhat lower in volatility, use Vanguard dividend Growth, Dividend Appreciati...
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick question on percentages
Replies: 8
Views: 678

Re: Your opinions on keeping money out of the market

muthazhagu, what you are doing is a sideways move and no change in AA is needed. If you have an AA that is right for you, you should not be hesitant to reinvest according the your AA plan. If you are squirming, your AA is too aggressive now and in the future.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your opinions on keeping money out of the market
Replies: 11
Views: 2111

Re: EWRS: What kind of "equal" weight is THIS?

House Blend wrote:Coming soon at Orwell Investments: AFEWX (Animal Farm Equal Weight Index Fund), where all stocks are equally weighted, but some are more equal than others.

Yes, this is where the chickens and cows weigh the same.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EWRS: What kind of "equal" weight is THIS?
Replies: 14
Views: 1016

Re: EWRS: What kind of "equal" weight is THIS?

I guess you can name a fund anything you want if it catches some new investors. :confused Next year they may come out with the parity weighed, value parity, or even alphabetical equally-weighted portfolio all will still be the same portfolio. :oops: Obviously, the name is much more important than th...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EWRS: What kind of "equal" weight is THIS?
Replies: 14
Views: 1016

Re: Bucket question

This is an interesting situation because readers will view the problem in different ways depending on how they frame it. This is how I see it though my window--the money in the DC plan is 15% of the overall assets and overall portfolio and that money is simply being transferred to a different part o...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bucket question
Replies: 23
Views: 2496

Re: How to design a "preretirement portfolio"?

Imagine a long-term rainy day fund in a taxable brokerage account - with maybe a 10 year time horizon. What is the purpose of a long-term rainy day portfolio? The amount is roughly equivalent to the emergency fund that we've stashed away in a crappy savings account. We are in the 28% tax bracket, m...
by pkcrafter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to design a "preretirement portfolio"?
Replies: 5
Views: 760
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