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Re: not sure about my adviser

davdior, you have suddenly discovered you have a big problem. Now you want to change everything, but I'm recommending you do not start making any moves until you have a complete plan laid out which includes your goal and the steps you are going to use to get there. Not doing it this way will likely ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: not sure about my adviser
Replies: 54
Views: 3542

Re: Ulysses Contract

Personally, I'm one of the sailors, not Ulysses. When I start getting antsy, I white out the account balances in my tracking spreadsheet and leave only the asset allocations visible. "Stuff cotton in your ears and stick to the plan" isn't as foolproof as having someone lash you to the mas...
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Re: Think or Swim with Invest Tools toolbox

Does anyone have experience and suggestion on the value of this tool for basic investing of stocks. I am looking for a tool to assist me with the basics including timing on best time to get in and out of a stock, taking out my emotional part of the equation. Thanks Pat This is a really bad idea for...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Think or Swim with Invest Tools toolbox
Replies: 3
Views: 339

Re: Ulysses Contract

Thanks for the feedback. dkturner: Why would you want to prevent an investor from selling stocks if the stock market is going down? How would this have worked in late 1929? I'm not sure you meant this or meant to say buy? If you meant sell, selling is the activity you want to make difficult. Raybo w...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Ulysses Contract

A Ulysses pact or Ulysses contract is a freely made decision that is designed and intended to bind oneself to a commitment in the future. Origin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_pact Dan Ariely's input on controlling irrational behavior. Examples-- Ulysses contract Ulysses contract=self control...
by pkcrafter
Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Re: Thought for the Day: Invest Logically

It is curious how often you humans manage to obtain that which you do not want.

--SPOCK, Star Trek: The Original Series, "Errand of Mercy"

http://www.top10-best.com/m/top_10_best ... uotes.html

Beam me up, Scotty.
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought for the Day: Invest Logically
Replies: 18
Views: 1907

Re: Taylor Larimore Honored

Congratulations Taylor. YOU are a true gem.

Best to you,

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor Larimore Honored
Replies: 59
Views: 4591

Re: Advice on my choice on index funds

VEIVX - Did you mean VEIEX?

NIO - Nuveen? low grade, leveraged munis? with ER of 1.43 or 0.95%?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on my investment plan [updated]
Replies: 5
Views: 663

Re: Help- I keep investing my emergency fund in the stock ma

What you are doing is a behavioral mistake. You must have more control on your emotional side. See my recent post on dumb money.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help- I keep investing my emergency fund in the stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 2264

Re: The Blind Forecaster

Thanks, Michael. Interesting to see that on average all forecasts are always up.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 28
Views: 2238

Re: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss

@palarry: Congratulations on your recovery, and you are absolutely right in that there will be curve-balls in life which are both difficult to predict and recover from if not properly prepared. @pkcrafter: A permanent loss could conceivably occur in one of two ways. The first, as you noted, is to p...
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss
Replies: 12
Views: 1307

Re: You and Your Dumb Money

Maybe the "dumb money" wasn't so dumb after all. No, the dumb money remains dumb money. I chose the title carefully--you and your dumb money--because investors do have a choice. They can choose to have dumb money or smart money, but no matter what, there will always be dumb money :confuse...
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You and Your Dumb Money
Replies: 17
Views: 3206

Re: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss

Did you mean that you had $140,000 left after your $60k (30%) loss from $200k? Also bear in mind that the math you noted is reflective of a permanent loss. Although there are no guarantees, a broadly diversified portfolio would not be subject to permanent losses (hopefully!). I'm not sure this refl...
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss
Replies: 12
Views: 1307

Re: What can I expect in return?

Mule, you might use this recommended posting format https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCYQFjAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcorporate.morningstar.com%2Fib%2Fdocuments%2FMethodologyDocuments%2FOptimalWithdrawlStrategyRetirementIncomePortfolios.pdf&a...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can I expect in return?
Replies: 7
Views: 923

Re: Help for a relative

What happens to the pension?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a relative
Replies: 4
Views: 473

Re: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss

I agree that it is good to understand this concept of how long it takes to get back to where you were prior to the loss. Not because the numbers will really play out the way they are calculated, but rather because it helps people understand how long it can take to recover from an extreme loss. Hope...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss
Replies: 12
Views: 1307

You and Your Dumb Money

Retail investors in January plowed a record $30 billion into stocks and exchange traded stock funds (ETFs). This is the fastest inflow since 2000. But what do the numbers really show? The retail investor—derided as the “dumb” money on Wall Street—is always late to the game. http://www.forbes.com/si...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You and Your Dumb Money
Replies: 17
Views: 3206

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

Has anyone actually put this question to Vanguard?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 147
Views: 10552

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

And maybe they upped international bond because U.S. bond interest rates have been too low. I hope that's not the reason, and I hope the reason for upping international equity was not from expectations or forecasting. Ahem . Have you looked at the yields lately, of international bonds vs Treasuries...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 147
Views: 10552

Re: International is disappointing

STOP looking at market returns. Once a year, look at the big picture, rebalance and don't look again for 12 months.
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 72
Views: 4495

Re: Newbie ??

Welcome, more info needed to make good suggestions. This link will provide a template for background.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... f=1&t=6212

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newbie ??
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

We are using LS conservative, which is 11.8% international. That will increase to 15.7%. Not too much to get excited about. International bond goes from 12.1% to 18% :thumbsup I'm not sure of the rationale behind this change because Vanguard's own study shows optimal international range from 20-40%,...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 26, 2015 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 147
Views: 10552

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

610gpm wrote:75

Now I will look.


verrrry close.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3561

Re: Why does Vanguard sell anything other than SP500 Index f

rakamaka, obvious, always, and never are three words that should not be used with discussing investing. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard sell anything other than SP500 Index fund?
Replies: 18
Views: 1852

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

I don't know much about the S&P500 other than it's cap weighted meaning that it's overweight the most expensive stocks and underweight the cheapest ones. :) Commander, the S&P500 floats all boats equally. A company that has a market cap 2x another company in the index gets 2x more of your i...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3561

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Rodc wrote:
Speaking of streaks and interesting patterns, since 1928 the S&P 500 has had more than 50 instances where it's advanced at least eight days in a row.


Pretty good for an index started in 1957...


Now THAT is an interesting fact!

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3561

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

Not only do you have to see something coming, you have to know when it's actually going to happen. Many investors got out of the market in 1995, four years too early, thus missing some incredible gains. Then you have to know when to get back in. Much easier to see in hindsight. In the throws of pani...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 3020

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Thanks dbr and DonC. Your input is leading in the direction I'd like to go/explore. Academic definitions work for the academically-minded, but don't for the majority of individual investors. For instance, standard deviation tells us the range of swings a particular fund will have. What is often left...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

Good discussion on will-power. Investors tend to say and even write down, I will not sell in a downturn . That's easy to do and easy to follow when the market isn't actually dropping like a rock. Investors can even find support on an investing forum or group gathering; however, when the market does ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4328

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Bustoff has it right. Read Taleb, then read Mandelbrot. Then, go play golf. I've done all three! The problem I'm trying to overcome is the academic definition of risk. I think the majority of individual investors will skip over anything defined this way. Bustoff and Kevin have provided correct defi...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Do most active managers outperform index before expense?

There is a way for all active managers to beat the index. They can collude to buy only a given subset of stocks. Those stocks will outperform the market. Since the index has to hold all stocks, it will underperform. No, if all active managers buy only a given subset of stocks, that mix becomes the ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active managers outperform the index by 0.12% before fees?
Replies: 22
Views: 1793

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

bengal22 wrote: Our personalities(investment profile) determines if we are more worried about 3 then 2. So somehow we process all these possibilities and factor in our income need and we determine how much risk we can shoulder. I think part of the problem is personalities and perceptions of risk can...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

LittleD wrote: If the goal is to beat the S&P 500 over long periods of time, it is not that hard to do. If it were actually that easy, it would be the market profile. Paul Not necessarily...the S&P 500 is not the market. Small Cap Value has trounced the S&P 500 and the Market over long ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4328

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Nisiprius wrote: Usually, the behavioral economists say, we not only are wrong, but we are far too overconfident and when asked to pick a range of error, invariably pick too narrow a range, so the real number almost always falls outside it. So let me call that my "bold guess" and say I wil...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3561

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Thanks to all, very insightful feedback. I think part of my problem is that defining stock risk, bond risk, investing risk, do not cover all risks. Example: I just read a post where someone said "it's easy to beat the index, all you have to do is use xxx portfolio. Also, there is risk in not ta...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

SpaceCommander wrote: The issue is not value vs. growth, it's mutual funds vs. the index. Or... Investors vs the index. LittleD wrote: If the goal is to beat the S&P 500 over long periods of time, it is not that hard to do. If it were actually that easy, it would be the market profile. Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4328

10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Ten facts about the S&P500, Article 2013.

Take a guess--how many original stocks are still in the S&P500? Post your guess--no peeking :happy

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... he-sp.aspx

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3561

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

My theory is investors who attempt to beat the market by either factor overload or choosing a hot manager increase their awareness of performance and their intolerance for performance less than they would gotten if they just held total market. They went out on the limb for something extra, and if th...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4328

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Thanks for the feedback. I'll clarify my goal as being able to explain to a new investor what risk is and how to deal with it. "Risk is in the eye of the beholder" is a pretty common expression here, and it's true, but it really does not help a new investor. I'm trying to think outside the...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

The possibility of needing money and not having it is the only risk that intuitively makes sense to me. Isn't avoiding that situation the whole point of essentially all financial planning? Agreed. And isn't financial planning risk management? :sharebeer This risk is best mitigated by having lots of...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

How often do you go into the dictionary to look up a word, and find that only one meaning is listed next to it? Practically never. Technically, almost every word has multiple meanings — and the word "risk" isn't any different, as best I can tell. The dictionary: Risky: Accompanied by or i...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

If you thought I have found the common ground, I have not. And that's why I'm trying again. This time not looking for common ground, but maybe a common stepping stone. I am bothered by the fact that we cannot seem to have a single unanimous point to agree on. Are we missing a seed somewhere? My firs...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3259

Re: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance

CRC301, Fallible wrote: The difference is relatively small, but since age isn't the only factor, what I wonder is whether your wife has also studied up on AA, including how to determine her personal risk tolerance. Has she decided on her own that, say, 80/20 matches that tolerance? I agree the diffe...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance
Replies: 19
Views: 1331

Re: any one has commenst on this growth modl

It's not bad, but either go with mid blend or mid value. No direct investment in small. The inclusion of healthcare smacks of recency. Where are the bonds?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Does anyone have comments on this growth model?]
Replies: 14
Views: 960

Re: Market Top

Went birdwatching this morning. Walked the neighborhood this morning and saw the following: Great Egret Belted Kingfisher Cardinal Blue Jay Robin White-winged dove Mourning dove Carolina wren Black vulture Egyptian geese Mockingbird Chickadee Crow Nicely diversified, but it begs the question, do yo...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [What to do at] Market Top
Replies: 57
Views: 5037

Re: Scott Burns on Factor investing

For the moment just two things are clear. First, that simple is better most of the time. Second, that the odds are against complexity.

Someone should tell Taylor Larimore about this. Oh, wait a minute--He's light years ahead of the researchers on this one.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 21, 2015 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns on Factor investing
Replies: 5
Views: 933

Re: why do some people like Fidelity?

I just found out one feature that I do not like Fidelity: some funds have a 'hold' period, for example, FSGDX fund, there is a '90 days" period that if you want to redeem, there is 1% fee. FSTMX fund has a lower fee, 0.5%, in you redeem in 90 days. this prevent people from frequent trading, wh...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do some people like Fidelity?
Replies: 67
Views: 6729

Re: Financial Advisor, worth it? - McAdam

Are you referring to McAdam Financial Group from Philly? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-planning-firm-mcadam-launches-143356183.html This seems to be layers of management, and that no doubt means layers of fees. McAdam->Advisors->Schwab. Cant find the cost, although it appears the advisors ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor, worth it? - McAdam
Replies: 26
Views: 1957

Re: Two Hedge Fund Managers Walk into a Bar...

Thanks Michael, funny with a lot of truth it it. The same applies to fund managers--all talented, all top of class. When talent is all pretty much equal, the outstanding managers' emerge because their strategy just happens to be aligned with the stars. Of course, the market is always moving and the ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Hedge Fund Managers Walk into a Bar...
Replies: 10
Views: 1737
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