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Re: Need Portfolio Advice

csc, you have told us what your portfolio value is, but we also need to know your planned initial withdrawal rate.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Portfolio Advice
Replies: 9
Views: 1140

Re: Investment Advisor usage? (vs. 3-fund)

Unrelated to above. But want to double-check something, once an AA is setup, then no matter what happens in the market (e.g. crash), we ought to stick to the AA, right? And re-balance only on the appointed time, and only to the original AA? e.g. If we have a 90/10 stock/bond AA today, and decide to...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Advisor usage? (vs. 3-fund)
Replies: 9
Views: 1068

Re: Momentum Investing ?

bs010101, you are right, of course, but some Bogleheads, perhaps the majority, won't chase anything. Furthermore, the opposite of momentum is reversion to the mean.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 8
Views: 1175

Re: Value Overvalued

On page 5 of this report from JP Morgan, it shows Value stocks are overvalued, and Growth stocks are undervalued compare to their 20 years averages. https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/blobcontentheader/202/900/1158474868049_jp-littlebook.pdf Just want to point that out. This reminds me of a quote from W...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Overvalued
Replies: 21
Views: 1795

Re: Momentum Investing ?

I guess Mo can go both ways. I can't help thinking momentum is created by performance chasers, and you know what we think of them. I don't know if playing the behavioral game is worth anything as JP Morgan's Thaler/Kahaneman's behavioral small cap growth fund, which carried a load and an ER of 1.47%...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 8
Views: 1175

Re: years of investing and balances

Don't presume everyone here is a millionaire. :moneybag

You still have time to reach your goal if you work at it. Maxing retirement investments is the key.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: years of investing and balances
Replies: 20
Views: 1523

Re: Am I "Locked In" For Payments With This Bond Fund?

When a bond price falls due to interest rate increases, the existing bonds in the fund continue to pay the same payout. You will actually see an increase in the yield, but same dollar amount. This happens because new bonds will have higher yields and your bonds must drop in price to make them attrac...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I "Locked In" For Payments With This Bond Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1058

Re: Can I retire early?

Green light, Rikki. Your starting withdrawal rate would be 2.5%, which opens up your options. I see you are not new, but if you have not checked out The White Coat Investor's website, be sure to do that. You might also investigate life-cycle finance. http://whitecoatinvestor.com/new-to-the-blog-star...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire early?
Replies: 28
Views: 3736

Re: Thoughts of a long-term investor

Naikansha, thanks for the link, it is a good article worth the read, especially on pg 2: Investment Lessons Learned: Mistakes Made Over 47 Years

It would be most beneficial if you edited your original post and fixed the link.

Thanks,

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts of a long-term investor
Replies: 7
Views: 958

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

The irony is active funds that match the S&P500 are called closet index funds and they are criticized because they can't match performance due to costs. Ah, poo, sour grapes and performance envy.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 44
Views: 2985

Re: I was tempted to market time and didn't

Should I act or not act (by throwing some additional moneys into the market...maybe with a small play money account) on such impulses in the future?

In a word, NO.
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I was tempted to market time and didn't
Replies: 19
Views: 1789

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

I'm wondering what your actual asset allocation is, Arthur.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2008

Re: Variable annuity ,what's the difference ?

Can I use this and draw on my funds at retirement If you are referring to your wife's 403b, you can't do anything with it. It says that I can't open a traditional IRA if my job provides one and take the tax deduction It may depend, but generally, this is incorrect. What do mean by "it"? P...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable annuity ,what's the difference ?
Replies: 14
Views: 1807

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Thank you all for your input. I realize now that asking a market timing question on this board is akin to preaching atheism in a Baptist church. Yes, that's right--and here's why--we didn't want to have to do this, but now we have to have an intervention and throw the book at you... :wink: Original...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2854

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

Arthur wrote: I am not using emotion, I am using the market valuation metric generated by the Nobel Laureate, seems reasonable to me, but definitely staying within my bands, correlation can go together or can zig zag, no rationale there... I do play a little but only within my rebalancing bands, it ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2008

Re: Roth IRA income limit question

6% Ginnie Mae fund (1.05% ER)
6% TIPS fund (1.27% ER)

What's this? Do you have any other lower cost bond choices?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA income limit question
Replies: 24
Views: 1043

Re: Professor looking for investment advice

What is your current asset allocation (AA)? Can you provide some more detail on this fund -- International Equities (expenses of .53%) . You are going to have to use Valic for international and bonds because you don't have enough room in the Roths to cover all needed international and all bonds. Sta...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Professor looking for investment advice
Replies: 16
Views: 1603

Re: Books or Articles for AA in Retirement

At age 65 we finally have our number. Now I am concerned about a more conservative allocation or portfolio strategy to keep the number. Does anyone know of good books or article about investing IN retirement as opposed to investing before retirement. Found a thread a few days ago that recommended s...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Books or Articles for AA in Retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 410

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

I am staying invested within my allocation, but I am overweighing emer. markets and international comparing to US, it just looks cheaper, and I love buying things on sale... EM is on sale? EM has higher risk, and don't forget when markets fall, all correlations tend to go to 1. That means EM is not...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2008

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

I know that general consensus here is that you can't time the market, don't even try. I get that and agree with it; very sound advice. With that in mind, I am wondering has anyone here considered moving some money out of the market into cash now, and leaving it there until QE3 ends? market timing T...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2854

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

Tobins Q is an interesting metric that tells us that the stock market value of replacement of all companies is actually much much higher than the value of the companies themselves... Tobin's Q provides very similar results to Shillers P/E 10 (see chart above), so it isn't that special. Good, yes, bu...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2008

Re: If You Can Free Kindle/NOT Free Paperback Available

I'm betting Levett and Huey are boomers. :happy

And once again, thank you Dr. B.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Can Free Kindle/NOT Free Paperback Available
Replies: 9
Views: 1722

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

Arthur, I think what you are referring to is a secular bear market. http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjN5gBgCEAA5Wjg.png:medium The consensus is we are now in a secular bear market, but as you can see, there are still bull runs in them. More information-- http://www.forbes.com/sites/sharding/2013/11/15/wh...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2008

Re: How is my AA? [Asset Allocation]

Your desired AA is 84/16? If so, you seem to be there now. In that case new money should be going to both stocks and bonds to maintain it. Paul I wouldn't say it is my ideal AA, I am still figuring that out but I am looking at how much I also have sitting on the sidelines in cash and the number is ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is my AA? [Asset Allocation]
Replies: 8
Views: 603

Re: How is my AA? [Asset Allocation]

Your desired AA is 84/16? If so, you seem to be there now. In that case new money should be going to both stocks and bonds to maintain it.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is my AA? [Asset Allocation]
Replies: 8
Views: 603

Re: Intersting article: what broker's title can reveal

Thanks, Too bad the people who need to read this won't see it.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intersting article: what broker's title can reveal
Replies: 1
Views: 605

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Apologies, I'm not trying to take a shot at you, it's just....
This time around though, there's a twist.

That is just too close to "it's different this time." I'll have to pass this time too.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2854

Re: I'm a genius!

Will do good wrote:HomerJ- You are a genius.


+1

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm a genius!
Replies: 14
Views: 3300

Re: Withdrawl from Target Retirement or Life Strategy Fund

It isn't reverse market timing, it's simply rebalancing. With a TR fund, the rebalancing is done daily, but as the fund shrinks, the loss is coming from equity, so equity is added every day to maintain the AA. In a rising market, equity surges and some is moved to the bond side to keep the AA, but t...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawl from Target Retirement or Life Strategy Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 979

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

Thanks VT, good post.

*Believing you've got it all figured out.
*Going 100% in anything implies you believe you have figured it out.


Paul.
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 8998

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

Certainly 50 years investing isn't too far a stretch is it? And every day we see new investors in their 20's starting on their investing journey, so even 60 years is conceivable. I just wanted to get the Bogleheads take on the Tobins Q and should we be worried that it's value is 3rd highest in histo...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2008

Re: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged

Hi all, Welcome, I'll interject some comments in blue. I'm a recent college grad and am now looking to start securing my financial future. That's a very good idea, and we have plenty of resources here to get you going. Start with the Wiki: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page I've always follow...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged Port
Replies: 10
Views: 714

Re: Asset allocation

Welcome, Too much information missing, percentages of funds as an example. Please use fund names as some readers may not know them. Take a look at the suggested posting format and fill in as much as you can. You can just edit your original post and add the information. http://www.bogleheads.org/foru...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 16, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 531

Re: 401K Investment

I have a 401k with my company who does match. I was invested in a mutual fund that was performing well, stupidly I moved to a different one. The new investment is not performing as well. Should I move my money back to the first mutual fund or is it too late since now it will cost too much to purcha...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Investment
Replies: 2
Views: 214

Re: Help please with first steps on my investing journey

Welcome, I'm not an expert on Australian investing, but I'll bump your post. I also suggest you modify the title to alert readers that you are in Australia. We have some posters either from there or at least familiar with investment plans, taxes, etc., so add Australian, Aussie, so those posters wil...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian newbie needs your help with starting investing
Replies: 8
Views: 943

Re: "The Incredibly Shrinking Financial System" by Jack Bogl

Thanks Taylor, I think the WSJ link will only work once. Here's a link to Google where the article is listed at the top . I can access the article this way and I think other readers will also be able to access it. https://www.google.com/search?q=The+Incredibly+Shrinking+Financial+System&ie=utf-8...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Incredibly Shrinking Financial System" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 10
Views: 1590

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

gw wrote:IMO, this is the best argument for 100% stocks when you're young:

http://www.whynot.net/main/mortgage_retirement.pdf


Finally, an article that tells we should leverage 2:1. :twisted:


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6111

Re: Company just offered a Roth 401K option. Should I use i

The answer depends on your tax bracket.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company just offered a Roth 401K option. Should I use it??
Replies: 20
Views: 1172

Re: New Investor with Class A fund blues

Your advisor sounds like he is/was a friend before being your advisor. This relationship is not recommended, but if you ask a guy who makes a living selling American funds, then that's what he's going to recommend. No money in recommending Vanguard funds. I'll assume your advisor is not charging you...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor with Class A fund blues
Replies: 31
Views: 2009

Re: If you had $100K how would you invest it?

Thanks for all the "friendly" advice. I will go read some more and ask a more intelligent question next time. :oops: You are doing just fine, only a few items need clarification. You haven't been specific about AA, but it appears you are now 70/30 and that's reasonable. A coupe of questio...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you had $100K how would you invest it?
Replies: 10
Views: 2199

Re: Question about managed account

The annual program fee is 0.9%. This is the only fee to my knowledge. Is this good or bad?

That's not the only fee, that's just the advisors annual fee. I checked one of your funds and found an expense ratio of 1.48%. That's very high and it's on top of the 0.9%.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about managed account
Replies: 17
Views: 1347

Re: Help with fund picks for a new guy.

For a second there, I thought Dave Ramsey was posting. :D Agree that you should post in the suggested format. See Laura's post at the top of the forum page. It grates Bogleheads the wrong way when we see someone use annual returns. Investors don't actually get annual returns. It would seem to be a r...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with fund picks for a new guy.
Replies: 19
Views: 1739

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

Cha-Ching!

We are near the top.
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 6017

A study on active management

This study was done in 2010, and while it was posted, it was buried in a thread with a different subject. I'm posting it again because we have had several newer posters looking for evidence that indexing is a better way to invest. False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estim...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A study on active management
Replies: 2
Views: 598

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

Taylor, thank you for posting this account. Lots of investors look up the historical performance of an asset class, find the worst one year performance and conclude they can handle it. The fact is most bad bear markets lose money in more than one year. The '29 crash lost money in 4 successive years,...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6111

Re: Help me understand 401k fund expenses

pellep, the fee on your index fund could be described as an abuse of ERISA rules, if your plan is actually supposed to conform to ERISA. As you probably now know by reading livesoft's link that the 0.75% fee is commission going to the advisor or back to the Voya. You should be able to get a breakdow...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand 401k fund expenses
Replies: 8
Views: 522

Re: 4-6 year college savings plan; very beginner

welcome bitters,

Here is a link to Saving for College where you can learn the difference between an ESA and a 529. The 529 would seem to be ideal for what you want to do. In any case, avoid places like Capital One.

http://www.savingforcollege.com/intro_to_esas/#.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4-6 year college savings plan; very beginner
Replies: 3
Views: 569
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