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Re: Is investing more risky today today than before the inte

I wonder. Back in the 60s in order to get people to invest in stocks, companies had to offer enough to make it worthwhile, and dividends of 5% were not uncommon. People were willing to take the risk for the good reliable income. Today, investors are willing to take the risk for much less in dividend...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 19, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing more risky today today than before the internet
Replies: 28
Views: 2297

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

No. 10 on that list is the reason the other nine are listed, but they are a contrived pitch for an advisor. TSM is the default selection and there is nothing wrong with it.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 72
Views: 5810

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

Now that I've attempted to justify my comment, :happy I will say that if I could create a line of TD funds, none would be higher than 75% stock because one fund for a wide range of investors should be a Goldilocks portfolio --not to much risk and not to little. Finally, I don't think target retirem...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Re: Effect of market dip midstream

I'm discussing retirement investing theory with a friend and need some assistance in demonstrating the effect of a market dip relative to a constant increase in the market. Consider a scenario where, after 20 years, the market increase is 10% overall. Also, you did NOT make any contributions or wit...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of market dip midstream
Replies: 6
Views: 934

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

conventional wisdom ignores empirical evidence that younger workers with less secure employment and scant savings are far likelier to raid their retirement accounts to meet basic living expenses. Since they’re also more likely to lose their jobs in a recession, which in turn is likelier to occur fo...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Re: Target Retirement Glidepath Timing

Target date funds don't hit the income level of 30% until 7 years after the date. TR2020, in 2020 will still be 50% stock. In 2015 it will be close to 60%. For this reason, you may have to select by allocations instead of date. Here's the glide path... https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/ad...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement Glidepath Timing
Replies: 3
Views: 768

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

how to make money like a billionaire

Step 1. Become a Billionaire.

Tony Robbins has a new book out and he's popping up everywhere promoting it.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 104
Views: 7344

Re: American Funds

Agree with Steve, we need to know the class of funds, A, C? Do you have any ticker symbols?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Re: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio

Thanks, interesting portfolio. This from the linked article...

Ray said, we need 30% in Stocks (for instance, the S&P 500 or other indexes for further diversification in this basket).


Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 2066

Re: 403(b) Difficulties - please advise!

Tibbles, quite a first post. Your wife is part of a retirement committee, that's good, but as Professor Emeritus hints at, this plan may not be subject to ERISA rules. That's the first thing that needs to be clarified. Along the same line, is your wife certain that the advisor is working as a fiduci...
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) Difficulties - please advise!
Replies: 9
Views: 779

Re: Seeking Historical returns for Core Indexes

Try this, Bob. The S&P500 is a fair representation of the market. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html stock/bond returns http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/07/30/historical-returns-for-us-stock_bond-allocations-and-choosing-your-allocation/ Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Historical returns for Core Indexes
Replies: 10
Views: 785

Re: restarting overwhelmed

Her (47) 401K: 100k Just rolled over to Fidelity IRA MMF, waiting on funds to transfer, needs to work another ten years to get SS-$1442 month at 67 Do you mean your wife was able to do an in service rollover? Did she get a match? Why did she rollover? Be aware that you need to have a comprehensive ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: restarting overwhelmed
Replies: 24
Views: 3703

Re: Investing in Chocolate? New to all of this.. need help.

There are professionals in the financial field who spend all their time looking for good deals. If there is money to be made on chocolate, they are way ahead of you. Don't speculate, learn to invest. There is a big difference.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Chocolate? New to all of this.. need help.
Replies: 23
Views: 2403

Re: Is my Tommy Lee Jones Approved Portfolio a disaster?

Welcome, you know it's pretty bad when your CPA suggests you review your expenses. What jumps out first is a 0.9% management fee on mid 7 figure portfolio. Yes, he lowered it when questioned because he knew he was seriously overcharging you. Vanguard and Rick Ferri will manage at 0.3% You have some ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is my Tommy Lee Jones approved Portfolio a disaster?
Replies: 17
Views: 2148

Re: Overwhelmed with Asset Allocation

Hi Guys, Welcome to the forum, Just starting out right now with my wife. Thanks for any feedback and help. It is much appreciated! -PD Emergency funds: Currently have 1.5 months of salary saved in our Capital One Savings Account Emergency fund may be too low right now. You might think about increas...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overwhelmed with Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2193

Re: restarting overwhelmed

Review and questions. First question--Are you now retiring? If not, when do you plan to retire? Been on the sidelines way too long and need to start making a return on our $ but very overwhelmed. ETF's? Mutual Funds? Talking with Fidelity today and opened an account they said they could manage the ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: restarting overwhelmed
Replies: 24
Views: 3703

Re: Expenses are ??

OK, so it's not that the lower ER outperforms the more expensive funds, it's that with the lower ER, you get to keep more of the return so in theory the lower ER fund is actually a better returning fund? My head hurts now! OK, I understand now. Q I think you're getting it. Consider two S&P500 f...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expenses are ??
Replies: 11
Views: 1544

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

conventional wisdom ignores empirical evidence that younger workers with less secure employment and scant savings are far likelier to raid their retirement accounts to meet basic living expenses. Since they’re also more likely to lose their jobs in a recession, which in turn is likelier to occur fo...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Re: "Three Simple Rules of Investing"

Thanks Taylor. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Three Simple Rules of Investing"
Replies: 14
Views: 4009

Re: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes

*Regarding Petijisto, he and Cremers did their original study in 2010, I believe. I asked Petijisto if he would mind providing his data and he said he would as soon as the study was peer reviewed. I'm still waiting for that. Another similar study was done recently and it came to pretty much the same...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4594

Re: Made a huge mistake, need help

Stillwater wrote: Then the company split into 2 different companies that in 2013 had the greatest returns probably in their history. I am talking that we have missed out on probably an extra $250,000 that would have accumulated in that 401k had we not rolled it over. Not staying 100% stock and losin...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Made a huge mistake, need help
Replies: 50
Views: 9312

Re: Help Understanding My Employer's 401(k) Options

Welcome, I think from the suggestions above you can see a pattern--we recommend low cost broadly diversified investments while minimizing overlap and duplication. You are a new investor, so one other question that is important now is your attitude about risk and loss, even if temporary. It makes sen...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding My Employer's 401(k) Options
Replies: 11
Views: 876

Re: Well Read But New Investor Now Retired Needs Advice

Paul, My thank you wound up in your signature line the same color font so you may not see it. I'm a little slow at the technical stuff on the site. You are the first person to specifically reply to my question about Wellesley. Makes sense. I'm curious why either you or Paul would think that. I've c...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Well Read But New Investor Now Retired Needs Advice
Replies: 22
Views: 1716

Re: Well Read But New Investor Now Retired Needs Advice

discreet wrote: My only reservation is substituting a bond portfolio for treasuries/cd/gov't bonds since I have looked at the portfolios of these funds and understand the statistics involve manager "discretion" as to duration, etc. Perhaps I need to get over my skepticism. I don't really s...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Well Read But New Investor Now Retired Needs Advice
Replies: 22
Views: 1716

Re: Well Read But New Investor Now Retired Needs Advice

Comments in blue... Please accept my apologies in advance if I stumble in this posting since I have never posted to any forum or blog and I am not very computer literate. Facts: $50,000 cash for emergencies $2m cash in taxable account $.5m cash in 401k, no future contributions, no withdrawals yet $...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Well Read But New Investor Now Retired Needs Advice
Replies: 22
Views: 1716

Re: A/A including Social Security?

Social security is an income stream. There is no lump of assets for you to adjust or withdraw from, so don't consider it some kind of bond income when you don't have the assets. Doing so increases your allocation to stocks and that will create higher losses which may bring it's own set of problems. ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A/A including Social Security?
Replies: 5
Views: 339

Re: IRA move happend at the worst time - now what?

YB, you did not make a blunder, you did everything right and just ran into back luck. I assume this was a custodian to custodian transfer, which was the right way to do it. Now that the transfer is complete, proceed with you plan. Buy your funds, get back to your target AA and move on.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA move happend at the worst time - now what?
Replies: 15
Views: 1214

Re: Kitces Sequence of Returns, Bucket Rebalancing

And here's another one from Kitces, which was written before the article posted above. This one goes a step further and changes AA based on Shiller P/E10. The shifts are 15% from a starting 45/55 portfolio. What's most interesting about this study is stocks/bills outperformed stocks/bonds. http://ww...
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces Sequence of Returns, Bucket Rebalancing
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: Individual stocks in retirement portfolio?

The behavioral aspects of investing are challenging enough without adding individual stocks.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks in retirement portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 628

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

It is interesting to see that this is one of the very few discussions that acknowledges the possibility of such an event. What becomes of the 100%er in such an environment?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 3530

Re: Plan

Yes, you made a mistake, but now you are still not at your target AA, so you have not corrected it. You need to get back on target. You may have to use a different fund for now, but waiting for recovery is a behavioral pitfall. See if you can identify which one. Vanguard, Behavioral Finance Ok, it's...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Plan
Replies: 6
Views: 554

Re: restarting overwhelmed

What is the best way to restart correctly? No. 1. Some basic education via Wiki, recommended books, and asking questions. Wiki http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started No. 2. Create a plan. No. 3. Create a strategy to implement and follow the plan. We need to know the initial needed withdrawa...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: restarting overwhelmed
Replies: 24
Views: 3703

Re: Kiches Sequence of Returns, Bucket Rebalancing

Thanks for the link. It almost seems that Michael has come to a conclusion Bogleheads have known all along. Never the less, the article provides some proof that rebalancing is not only effective, it's necessary.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 12, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces Sequence of Returns, Bucket Rebalancing
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?

Don't we consider expenses, including taxes, when we calculate needed withdrawal rate? If so, the expense of taxes is accounted for. In addition, the money marked for taxes does not belong to the government until you actually pay those taxes--it's still your money up to that point. After all, maybe ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 3526

Re: How can I convince my wife to accept investing??

There have been some really thoughtful and creative approaches to a real life problem that is not all that uncommon. The idea of framing this problem in terms of meeting goals is probably the best way to convey the dilemma. Discussing this in terms of not attaining a goal will highlight the risk inh...
by pkcrafter
Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I convince my wife to accept investing??
Replies: 54
Views: 4288

Re: Retiring Parents Set in Risky Ways

This is simply a no-brainer for any investor. No one should be 80% in one stock. That is a ton of specific stock risk, and the OPs concern is his parents seem to acting contrary to what they've taught him.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring Parents Set in Risky Ways
Replies: 46
Views: 3870

Re: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning

Seems like this is only a partial piece of an interview, and there is no background, no context, and no link to the actual interview. Here's what they have: In other words, when the market trades up to that earnings multiple, then Bogle believes the market is becoming overbought. At that level, he s...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning
Replies: 22
Views: 3170

Re: Gathering thoughts vs. Market Timing

Is this how all finance professionals manage their portfolios? Hey, dentists often have horrible teeth. Not unusual. We've had many professionals in the finance field asking for help, and most were not very familiar with Bogleheads' style of investing because it isn't taught in school. Paul edited ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gathering thoughts vs. Market Timing
Replies: 56
Views: 2782

Re: Margin Account

Any suggestions on how I should handle the conversation?

Yeah, you're fired!

Talk to your mother and tell her she needs a new broker.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Margin Account
Replies: 1
Views: 204

Re: Gathering thoughts vs. Market Timing

Mike, you need to be very aware that you violated your policy statement and then sold everything on impulse. Since you probably weren't invested in 2008 you have not really been tested in a emotionally charged situation, but consider that you probably won't make it through a hard downturn. Many Bogl...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gathering thoughts vs. Market Timing
Replies: 56
Views: 2782

Re: Evaluating my portfolio as I approach 30

BW, you are making progress, at least in getting your current holdings in order and understanding what you have, and that is the first step. It is apparent that you don't really have a well-developed strategy or plan, so that is where you need to focus your energy now. You have too many funds, lots ...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluating my portfolio as I approach 30
Replies: 20
Views: 2936

Re: Need an opinion

Welcome, It's difficult to answer this question without knowing what your goal is and what other holdings you own. Basically, PZA is a highest quality, AA rated, ETF. ABHYX is BB rated, which means is close to being junk bond quality. If you only could choose one, the PZA would be the choice. If you...
by pkcrafter
Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need an opinion
Replies: 7
Views: 943

Re: 58yo First-Time (Possible) Investor Savings/Retirement?

Thanks Paul. I plan to max out the Roth IRA option over the next 4 years and should have $52k in it by the time I'm 62. Do you advise the remaining $50k to go into my 401k at work now or should I just put it in taxable in VTMFX (Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares), for example. This ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 09, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58yo First-Time (Possible) Investor Savings/Retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1901

Re: 58yo First-Time (Possible) Investor Savings/Retirement?

Comments is blue Hello Bogleheads, I have been lurking on this forum for a while. I have done some research and have a few questions about what I should do now that I am close to retirement. I missed the boat on indexing a long time ago. We invested in an individual stock in the 90s and lost a lot ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 09, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58yo First-Time (Possible) Investor Savings/Retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1901

Re: Trying to get started and have been procrastinating

AtG, let's try to figure out what the profit sharing plan is. My wife and I both work and contribute to our employers profit sharing trust which is our retirement plan instead of a 401K. The employer manages the plan and the only decision we make is how much to contribute . If you are contributing t...
by pkcrafter
Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to get started and have been procrastinating
Replies: 26
Views: 2318

Re: Paper on Market Timing

Bilello, Gayed challenge efficient market hypothesi Mr. Bilello said in a telephone interview that he and Mr. Gayed looked at the performance of what he called the most “boring” sector of all, the utilities sector, and found a 4% annualized outperformance from 1926 to 2013, which can't be explained...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper on Market Timing
Replies: 3
Views: 892

Re: Rethinking My Asset Allocation

Pkcrafter: a familiar face from Morningstar forums! By your reasoning, if I don't invest every penny I have to my name, my ideas are conflicting. Yes, conflicting. :happy You said you wanted 100% stock, but you are at 80/20. I like 80/20 better, but just pointing out the discrepancy. You left your ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 08, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking My Asset Allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 2497

Re: MFO's David Snowball's Blunt Observation on Index Funds

Voya? Voya Financial is a financial, retirement, investment and insurance company based in New York. It was formerly a full subsidiary of ING Group, and was spun off in 2013 and renamed Voya Financial in 2014. Snowball's comments are contrived, ridiculous, and a very weak attempt to support his view...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 08, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MFO's David Snowball's Blunt Observation on Index Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2013

Re: Trying to get started and have been procrastinating

Welcome, Hello Bogleheads, I've been trolling the forum for weeks as I try to gather info for my first post. I'm still trying to decide on asset allocation, appetite for risk, etc. and decided to ask some preliminary questions in the hopes that I can get my financial self rolling. Thanks in advance...
by pkcrafter
Sat Nov 08, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to get started and have been procrastinating
Replies: 26
Views: 2318
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