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Re: Wise to split $$ between Vanguard and advisor?

Baa wrote: It is a sophisticated portfolio that is tweaked by WF anytime they feel there is an opportunity for 1.6% You've been well-schmoozed. Maybe this explains why you want to stay with the bank and at the same time try to lower fees without leaving the bank. Does you bank advisor carry fiduciar...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wise to split $$ between Vanguard and advisor?
Replies: 30
Views: 1543

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Does this mean that there has never been a 40 year time period where you lost money on stocks? My horizon is 39 years. 40 years, 39 years are long term, but what does this data mean to you? I don't think long term data helps much because we live in one period then another, and it might take 3 or 4 ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 38
Views: 2939

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Your data doesn't support your title - losing money for 20-30 years has happened is not the same thing as uncommon. Worst-case scenarios aren't particularly helpful at figuring out what is common or likely. avalpert, the chart clearly shows that the majority of counties have lost money in both 20 a...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 38
Views: 2939

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Browser (OP) has provide the chart and a link to Faber's site. Faber, in turn provides a link to O'Shaughnessy's site which contains the chart and needed explanation of the chart. For instance, equal weighted is investing an equal amount is the top 20 countries. The whole point of this chart, which ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 38
Views: 2939

Re: How to complement VWENX to get full diversification?

Hello, I a looking to build a portfolio of which VWENX is a component. 1. What other funds would be needed to have a full and well diversified portfolio (moderate risk appetite)? 2. Given the answer to 1., what would be a smart allocation of total funds across these portfolio components? Thank you!...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to complement VWENX to get full diversification?
Replies: 9
Views: 1017

Re: Wise to split $$ between Vanguard and advisor?

Gil wrote: I spent my career as a trust executive and probably know a bit more than you do about fiduciary standards. Gil, I was not talking about trust executives, I was specifically talking about bank employees who act as investment advisors. And I'll stand by the comment that banks are top of the...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wise to split $$ between Vanguard and advisor?
Replies: 30
Views: 1543

Re: Goodbye and Good Luck!

Thanks Jason, you have been a valuable poster.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Goodbye and Good Luck!
Replies: 12
Views: 2310

Re: Wise to split $$ between Vanguard and advisor?

Welcome Baa, First post here. Wanted to make sure my plan is not terribly stupid and really respect everyone's opinion on this forum! I currently have a money manager at a big bank charging 1.6% a year and I wanted to reduce expenses. A bank is one of the worst places to go for an advisor. First, th...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wise to split $$ between Vanguard and advisor?
Replies: 30
Views: 1543

Re: Was ready to pull plug on Janus..until

player, thanks for posting your funds. As most suspected, none are really comparable to the total market. Many are mid cap and many are growth. The take-away is your portfolio is carrying higher risk than a total market fund. Another point is index funds don't usually show outperformance in the shor...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was ready to pull plug on Janus..until
Replies: 65
Views: 3376

Re: RETIREMENT ALLOCATIONS

A 3% withdrawal at 60 is very reasonable; however, sequence of returns could bite you if we see a substantial market drop just after you retire. Because of this you might consider dropping equity to 40-45%, which should reduce the strain on your portfolio and withdrawal rate while still sustaining y...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Allocations
Replies: 15
Views: 1132

Re: Need Investing Advice

PH, I believe with assets more than 500k, you can get a free financial plan from Vanguard. I also think you can get good suggestions right here. You have a lot of assets in tax-deferred accounts and those are easy to change. If you consider all accounts as one portfolio, it's much easier to build an...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Investing Advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1235

Re: NHILX High Turnover Rate [Neuberger Berman High Income B

High turnover for a bond fund is not unusual, although Vanguard short term bond index has a turnover of 50% and Vanguard's High yield corporate has a low turnover of 28%. NHILX has a slightly lower duration than Vanguard's high yield (VWEHX), but it's lower quality (riskier) and more expense. The hi...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NHILX High Turnover Rate [Neuberger Berman High Income Bond]
Replies: 2
Views: 256

Re: Old people and financial advisors - a family tale

M_to_ the_G, I was about to bring up the point that dbr just made--is the advisor acting within the suitability standard, or is he acting unethical? I'm afraid the suitability standard gives these guys a lot of leeway. As for account churning, my friend with ML also sees a lot of trading too. If you...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old people and financial advisors - a family tale
Replies: 75
Views: 5490

Re: slowly turning Boglehead...help me with my next step

Dan, your idea of moving up to 75% stock doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. You say you are conservative, so why increase equity and risk, especially now. If you have been maintaining a 66/34 portfolio, you haven't missed out on the market run. It sounds like you've done most of the heavy work alr...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: slowly turning Boglehead...help me with my next step
Replies: 8
Views: 983

Re: Where would you put 30k for a 70 yo first time investor?

If he wants an aggressive suggestion, then LS aggressive. I'd also make it very clear that it's not what you would recommend, and then you can explain the problem and offer something reasonable.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you put 30k for a 70 yo first time investor?
Replies: 13
Views: 1434

Re: Old people and financial advisors - a family tale

Sorry to say this type of behavior is not uncommon at any age. I have a friend who's been with Morgan Stanley for almost 20 years. He tells me about being taken to ball games and BBQs all paid for by his buddy, his advisor. When friends wife retired, she joined up with MS too, and in her second year...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 26, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old people and financial advisors - a family tale
Replies: 75
Views: 5490

Re: Efficient frontier by decade

Thanks, good observation, Ken.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 26, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier by decade
Replies: 39
Views: 18165

Re: Help me save my parents from Merrill Lynch

I don't think this is a question of having an advisor vs self-management, it's more of a question of finding a good, fee only advisor. This is a big decision and your parents need to spend a little time getting educated because getting the wrong advisor can be very costly. Big brokerage houses like ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me save my parents from Merrill Lynch
Replies: 34
Views: 4016

Re: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"

Taylor, thanks for the link, a truly great article. As a engineer, the following really resonated with me. "As many other engineers and scientists have discovered, succeeding at investments isn't entirely the same as succeeding at science. Having a good feel for numbers is a necessary conditio...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"
Replies: 19
Views: 3880

Re: One of the simplest rational reasons why some should til

acegolfer wrote: Then who should tilt? Wealthy retired investors (perhaps many BHs). Under the condition you wrote, it's an option because these investors have a lot of financial ability. For most retirees who don't have a lot of ability tilting is probably not a good idea because it's possible to n...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 25, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One of the simplest rational reasons why some should tilt
Replies: 42
Views: 3733

Re: Momentum Investing ?

But wait, there's more....and just when you thought you had it figured out. :shock: A Better Three-Factor Model? Since the Fama-French model does not explain the stock price momentum effect, researchers and investors often add momentum as a fourth factor to predict future stock returns. Might some o...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4319

Re: Bonds beat stocks over the last 15 years

Interesting thread. Can anyone compare dollar cost average (DCA) outcomes of stocks and bonds using the same 15-yr period? My intuition says even if bonds beat stocks with buy and hold, DCA stocks will beat DCA bonds. I'd be interested in doing such an analysis, I'm just not sure how to approach it...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat stocks over the last 15 years
Replies: 93
Views: 7649

Re: Rules of thumb that shouldn't be

Rules of thumb are really just "titles" for longer discussions that discuss in detail some subject in investing. As such, there are probably no rules of thumb that should not be. If someone is actually following a rule of thumb without more investigation of why's and wherefore's, then tha...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rules of thumb that shouldn't be
Replies: 39
Views: 4098

Re: savings and staying course with investment strategy

Thank you, Robert T. You've said a lot in a few words, which is a refreshing. It brings us back to simple basics. Perhaps you posted this in view of the many recent posts on factor investing. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: savings and staying course with investment strategy
Replies: 8
Views: 1795

Re: Advice proceeding with 100% taxable portfolio.

Valence, part of your problem may be that you don't have an investment policy statement (IPS). http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/IPS Your reluctance to use the 401k is an indication that you have not made a commitment to save and invest long term with regular contributions. This is an absolute must if ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice proceeding with 100% taxable portfolio.
Replies: 24
Views: 1593

Re: Momentum Investing ?

Larry wrote: Paul Yes IMO it is mostly a behavioral story, but as Robert pointed out there are risks, especially on short side, and what makes you believe human behavior will change? Larry, I don't believe for one second that investor behavior will change, but following the crowd isn't something I w...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4319

Re: Momentum Investing ?

This paper has been posted before I believe, but I'm posting here for those active in this thread. Fact, Fiction and Momentum Investing http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2435323 With all due respect to Asness and company, I believe momentum is primarily a behavioral story, and I'll ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4319

Re: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"

nedsaid: I also liked that he discussed the limitations of a quantitative approach to investing. Numbers are important but they aren't the whole thing with investing, there is a whole lot more. And a whole lot less. :happy What I mean is I believe IF average investors simply follows the basic Bogleh...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"
Replies: 19
Views: 3880

Re: Does a 401k plan cost an employer money?

Our three person company costs about $45k per year for compliance testing and reporting plus the employer match. We use Schwab as custodian and they charge no fees for the service. There is an amazing administrative burden with plan docs that weight several pounds and need to be updated periodicall...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a 401k plan cost an employer money?
Replies: 32
Views: 1746

Re: Consumer Staples > Total Index?

Invest0, most of the replies are somewhat negative, so I'll offer a little different view. First, let's separate O'Shaughnessy from consumer staples. Most people in the business have an agenda of promoting and selling, so I would not send much time reading O'Shaughnessy or any other gurus. If we jus...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consumer Staples > Total Index?
Replies: 9
Views: 821

Re: Please recommend a low fee index fund with no min. inves

Welcome to the forum :) . Please recommend a low fee index fund with no min. invest. . . . . . My girlfriends and I would like to each save $100/month for the next 5-6 years, . . . . . I'd like to recommend we choose a low cost index mutual fund. . . . . . . I also don't like the idea of an ETF . ....
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please recommend a low fee index fund with no min. invest.
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Re: Need Help and totally confused!!

Welcome Camptalcott, I'm very new to this site and to investing in general. Unfortunately I am forced to learn via "trial by fire" method. You will not have to go through a trial by fire. You can get your basics right here and avoid the fires, and as you will discover, the Bogleheads metho...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help and totally confused!!
Replies: 28
Views: 1787

Re: Defining what an expense ratio means for individuals

Vanguard has super-low expense ratios on their index funds because they are a not-for-profit company --the only not-for-profit mutual fund company.[...] Paul I agree with everything else you say but disagree with the above. I could create my own not-for-profit mutual fund company and pay each of my...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining what an expense ratio means for individuals
Replies: 26
Views: 1431

Re: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"

Thank you Taylor, and thank you Bill Bernstein and John Rekenthaler! This an excellent article that should be required reading for all investors. For most people, investing successfully is a deeply unnatural act. Emotions destroy investment performance. Somehow, some way, investors must suppress the...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"
Replies: 19
Views: 3880

Re: Defining what an expense ratio means for individuals

Vanguard has super-low expense ratios on their index funds because they are a not-for-profit company--the only not-for-profit mutual fund company. You should also be aware that fund total returns are reported after the expense ratio has been deducted. High costs are a drag on returns as shown by the...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining what an expense ratio means for individuals
Replies: 26
Views: 1431

Re: A case against Index Funds in India

Nothing new here. The listed arguments against indexing are the same old ones always used by active investors. Having said that, the author claims there is no 500 stock index fund in India. He also says there are "index funds" but no index to track.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case against Index Funds in India
Replies: 32
Views: 1700

Re: Need Portfolio Advice

csc, you have told us what your portfolio value is, but we also need to know your planned initial withdrawal rate.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Portfolio Advice
Replies: 9
Views: 1247

Re: Investment Advisor usage? (vs. 3-fund)

Unrelated to above. But want to double-check something, once an AA is setup, then no matter what happens in the market (e.g. crash), we ought to stick to the AA, right? And re-balance only on the appointed time, and only to the original AA? e.g. If we have a 90/10 stock/bond AA today, and decide to...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Advisor usage? (vs. 3-fund)
Replies: 9
Views: 1210

Re: Momentum Investing ?

bs010101, you are right, of course, but some Bogleheads, perhaps the majority, won't chase anything. Furthermore, the opposite of momentum is reversion to the mean.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4319

Re: Value Overvalued

On page 5 of this report from JP Morgan, it shows Value stocks are overvalued, and Growth stocks are undervalued compare to their 20 years averages. https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/blobcontentheader/202/900/1158474868049_jp-littlebook.pdf Just want to point that out. This reminds me of a quote from W...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Overvalued
Replies: 23
Views: 2279

Re: Momentum Investing ?

I guess Mo can go both ways. I can't help thinking momentum is created by performance chasers, and you know what we think of them. I don't know if playing the behavioral game is worth anything as JP Morgan's Thaler/Kahaneman's behavioral small cap growth fund, which carried a load and an ER of 1.47%...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4319

Re: years of investing and balances

Don't presume everyone here is a millionaire. :moneybag

You still have time to reach your goal if you work at it. Maxing retirement investments is the key.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: years of investing and balances
Replies: 23
Views: 1940

Re: Am I "Locked In" For Payments With This Bond Fund?

When a bond price falls due to interest rate increases, the existing bonds in the fund continue to pay the same payout. You will actually see an increase in the yield, but same dollar amount. This happens because new bonds will have higher yields and your bonds must drop in price to make them attrac...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I "Locked In" For Payments With This Bond Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1076

Re: Can I retire early?

Green light, Rikki. Your starting withdrawal rate would be 2.5%, which opens up your options. I see you are not new, but if you have not checked out The White Coat Investor's website, be sure to do that. You might also investigate life-cycle finance. http://whitecoatinvestor.com/new-to-the-blog-star...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire early?
Replies: 28
Views: 3912

Re: Thoughts of a long-term investor

Naikansha, thanks for the link, it is a good article worth the read, especially on pg 2: Investment Lessons Learned: Mistakes Made Over 47 Years

It would be most beneficial if you edited your original post and fixed the link.

Thanks,

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts of a long-term investor
Replies: 7
Views: 989

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

The irony is active funds that match the S&P500 are called closet index funds and they are criticized because they can't match performance due to costs. Ah, poo, sour grapes and performance envy.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3528

Re: I was tempted to market time and didn't

Should I act or not act (by throwing some additional moneys into the market...maybe with a small play money account) on such impulses in the future?

In a word, NO.
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I was tempted to market time and didn't
Replies: 19
Views: 1815

Re: Tobins Q as market valuation metric

I'm wondering what your actual asset allocation is, Arthur.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobins Q as market valuation metric
Replies: 42
Views: 2098
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