Search found 9089 matches

by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 87
Views: 3821

Re: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns

Maynard wrote: Of course Bogle himself (as well as Markowitz - the godfather of "buy and hold" investing) have famously used high valuations to make asset allocation changes ... So I think it's a strange situation where the message has sort of grown legs and run away from those who origina...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 87
Views: 3821

Re: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns

Wow, this tread has really gotten some legs. The differing views seem to be mostly between the OP and a handful of posters who found the message incorrect enough to debate it. The great majority of Bogleheads should follow longinvest's message because it is the Boglehead way. OK, there some Boglehea...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to Simplify Portfolio
Replies: 41
Views: 1952

Re: Looking to Simplify Portfolio

Hi. When folks speak of a 3-fund portfolio, are they referring to a 3-fund across all different account types? Or, 3-funds in each account type? I feel that that mean the latter, but I wanted to be sure. If the latter, would one duplicate those same 3-funds or are some better in retirement accounts...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: looking for feedback on retirement investments
Replies: 8
Views: 711

Re: looking for feedback on retirement investments

You didn't list the name or ticker of the TR funds, so it's hard to tell what your actual asset allocation is. If they were Vanguard funds, your AA would by about 82% stock. You do have 2 Vanguard TR funds at 90% stock, but we don't know the others. I would be surprised if they were less than 65% st...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor fee question
Replies: 19
Views: 1353

Re: Advisor fee question

Domer, are you considering an advisor, or just curious? I ask because you could consider Vanguard's Personal Advisor Service for 0.3%. Most advisors extract their fees from your assets, but you can request to pay them directly. If you do that you will quickly become aware of the checks you have to w...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 87
Views: 3821

Re: Predicting future returns

Thanks for the reminder. It must have taken you awhile to write this up, but I think the message is very timely.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision
Replies: 30
Views: 2941

Re: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision

Precise calculations creates a spell of overconfidence, which makes you double down on whatever you want to believe no matter how wrong it is. Good to keep in mind that overconfidence is by far the NO. 1 behavioral pitfall. As far as systems and strategies go, the more complex and harder to explain...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 18
Views: 1729

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

Thanks for the message--it's a good one for investing, planning for retirement, and life itself.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 69
Views: 5537

Re: 50/50 asset allocation

rca, you seem to be making recommendations based only on your own situation--1-2% withdrawal rate. With that low of a WD rate, you have the ability to go 100% stock; however, as I mentioned earlier, you aren't actually 100% stock. 95% of investors require a higher withdrawal rate. You have ability a...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 69
Views: 5537

Re: 50/50 asset allocation

rca, there are a lot of potential problems with trying to apply a blanket statement to all investors. Even the most risk averse individual who wants to maximize the minimum possible return is best off with 100% equity. You are looking at data, not real investors. A 100% equity portfolio for a risk a...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 69
Views: 5537

Re: 50/50 asset allocation

rca wrote:
the optimal retirement portfolio is 70-100% equity depending on your assumptions.

What assumptions? A 70% to 100% stock recommendation for all retirees is very debatable.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping Mom - I'm Concerned About Her Advisor
Replies: 24
Views: 1805

Re: Helping Mom - I'm Concerned About Her Advisor

We don't know what your mom is paying in fees. All the funds have commissions in advance of investing the remainder of the money, except one C fund which has an ongoing 1% taken. The advisor may be taking the commissions, or they could be waived if he's taking an annual % of assets managed. Either w...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap weight maximum diversification?
Replies: 46
Views: 2356

Re: Cap weight maximum diversification?

OK, fair questions. I'll try to answer. investorguy, I think you may be combining 3 different issues here. Lets say you have $100. You could only invest in 2 companies. Company A has 5 identical rental apartments. Company b has 10 identical properties to those of A. You could investment invest $33....
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?
Replies: 28
Views: 3003

Re: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?

Nisiprius wrote:
Maybe the general rule is that whatever indicator is foretelling a stock market crash is the indicator we are apt to pay attention to.

Yes, but it's always better to choose the indicator after the event.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman -- best days, worst days
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Re: Edelman -- best days, worst days

Livesoft wrote: I'm chuckling about the linked Adam Grimes article dated Oct 15, 2015 I'm chuckling too. Oct 15, 2015 . Timing and prediction at it's finest. :happy Paul Not sure what point is being made with point examples. If we're playing that game, let's look at Oct 1, 2008 where we would have ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help with my investing direction.. errrr, I'm with Ram-it James
Replies: 21
Views: 1027

Re: help with my investing direction.. errrr, I'm with Ram-it James

Fisher investments used to put all customers into 100% individual stocks, even retirees. They got a lot of heat for that and I don't know if they still do it. At any rate, their management fee is very high, and you will have the trading costs on top of that. There are many better, low cost options, ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman -- best days, worst days
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Re: Edelman -- best days, worst days

Livesoft wrote:
I'm chuckling about the linked Adam Grimes article dated Oct 15, 2015

I'm chuckling too. Oct 15, 2015. Timing and prediction at it's finest. :happy


Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman -- best days, worst days
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Re: Edelman -- best days, worst days

200 day MA. There's this article, but I don't need an article to believe timing will not work well enough after cost to be a winner. Looking at historical data is one thing, deciding on when to get out and when to get back in again is another. Timing is a good way to chase the tail of the dog. http:...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expense ratio question
Replies: 12
Views: 870

Re: Expense ratio question

Domer, you have good answers, and you should also know that expenses are taken before the total return is reported. Don't conclude that expenses don't matter and you should only consider total return. If two funds are seemingly identical and have the same return, but one costs 1% more than the other...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman -- best days, worst days
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Edelman -- best days, worst days

I'm not a big fan of Ric Edelman, but this short article makes a good point. In the four years ending Dec. 31, 2014 the stock market earned 13% a year. Those four years covered over 1000 days of trading. If you had missed the best 14 days, your return would have been zero! If you missed the worst 14...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns – Don’t quit your day job.
Replies: 101
Views: 9773

Re: Scott Burns – Don’t quit your day job.

A lot of poor speculation going on there. A 30 year forecast? Why just 30 years? What happens after that? :happy A 30 year forecast isn't worth reading about. I always found it funny that 10 year forecasts are redone every year. Why? Are they going to do 30 year forecasts every year as well? It seem...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap weight maximum diversification?
Replies: 46
Views: 2356

Re: Cap weight maximum diversification?

investorguy, I think you may be combining 3 different issues here. Lets say you have $100. You could only invest in 2 companies. Company A has 5 identical rental apartments. Company b has 10 identical properties to those of A. You could investment invest $33.33 in company A and $66.67 in B. Or you c...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scummy telemarketing charities
Replies: 5
Views: 737

Re: Scummy telemarketing charities

It responded by saying that 85% of funds received go to marketing and 15% to the charity,

I hate trying to have a conversation with a computer, but in this case it seems the computer is much more honest than a person. HA!


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Vanguard advisor service worth while for me?
Replies: 18
Views: 1413

Re: Is the Vanguard advisor service worth while for me?

Is it likely the Vanguard adviser can save me $900 / year in taxes? The adviser can save you money when your investments lose some value, but then you can do the same thing. Not sure of your tax bracket, but the taxes on withdrawals now is probably 15%, same as your withdrawals from tax deferred. C...
by pkcrafter
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2651

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

Thanks Larry, good article. I guess I don't get it. Or missed it. I didn't see anything in the article about correlation of viewing frequency and returns, or vice-versa. I do get that daily monitoring could leave someone with a negative impression of how things are going. I hear how the market does ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - X-ray/Personal Capital, etc.
Replies: 2
Views: 365

Re: Asset Allocation - X-ray/Personal Capital, etc.

renue wrote: When I plug my investments into my Google spreadsheet, I'm in line with my 70% stock fund allocation, but when I use an analyzer like Personal Capital, the numbers are different because it's analyzing the assets in the funds for cash, "alternatives," etc. I would not count cas...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Value of Financial Advice" by Wade Pfau
Replies: 13
Views: 2164

Re: "The Value of Financial Advice" by Wade Pfau

When talking about adding alpha, Pfau means adding alpha to investor returns, not market returns. However, I think he's correct that investors create return slippage due mostly to behavioral errors. I'm now convinced better than 50% of investors are making costly behavioral mistakes and could benefi...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?
Replies: 73
Views: 5903

Re: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?

Is it safe to say that, had you known about all this beforehand it might have been a deal-breaker on your car purchase?

Well, let's just say this purchase was not my choice. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?
Replies: 73
Views: 5903

Re: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?

My 2010 Lexus has several controls built into the computer. You cannot switch radio stations directly without clicking on menu and then navigating with the mouse to audio, and then mousing again to the desired station and clicking again. You can't even tell what station you are on without going thro...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's better: Lower Fees or Higher Potential Growth?
Replies: 20
Views: 1657

Re: What's better: Lower Fees or Higher Potential Growth?

You should not have only U.S. or International--you need both for proper diversification. For bond, use VBIIX. Diversification is more important than a few basis points.



Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ritholz-Are you a Macro Tourist Investor?
Replies: 3
Views: 552

Re: Ritholz-Are you a Macro Tourist Investor?

Great article . Very intelligent man, and fits nicely into BH theory and practice. We don't have any control over this anyway, so why worry about China, Greece, gold, etc? http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/get-there/the-travels-and-travails-of-the-macro-tourist/2015/07/16/31eeaf64-2b2d-11e5-a5...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inexperienced Trustee
Replies: 53
Views: 3400

Re: Inexperienced Trustee

Due to the inevitable, I am now trustee of my parents' life savings. The trust says that the principal is to be invested conservatively to earn at least 6% . Ha! I don't think that can happen. Good, you understand that clearly. No, it isn't likely you can generate 6% returns, and 6% withdrawals isn...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Redoing All Finances - Advice Would Be Awesome!
Replies: 24
Views: 2121

Re: Redoing All Finances - Advice Would Be Awesome!

Travis, you really have two issues here, 1) to use an advisor or not, and 2) your overall strategy and portfolio. You definitely need to post it all. And you definitely do not want to pull assets from your 403b. Your wife's desire to have at least 20% in bonds is certainly reasonable. I suggest you ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would you rebalance when your fixed income investments are not liquid?
Replies: 15
Views: 545

Re: How would you rebalance when your fixed income investments are not liquid?

rca, your post is a bit misleading, or I misunderstood. Apparently you don't have a whole like policy or an annuity. You are 20 years from retirement with 100% stocks and you are worried about how to rebalance in retirement with no bonds? Don't you face the same problem right now? I know the data sa...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would you rebalance when your fixed income investments are not liquid?
Replies: 15
Views: 545

Re: How would you rebalance when your fixed income investments are not liquid?

We need to know the answer to this question: Does the income stream cover all your spending needs? If true, then the equity is all discretionary money. Having said that, I'm not a fan of substituting an income stream for all your non-equity allocation. If you want to do that, there is no way to buy ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Redoing All Finances - Advice Would Be Awesome!
Replies: 24
Views: 2121

Re: Redoing All Finances - Advice Would Be Awesome!

Travis, a possible compromising solution for you might be Vanguard's PAS (Personal Advisor Services) which is a robo advisory service with support from an advisor. This service requires 50k minimum and costs 0.3%/year. https://investor.vanguard.com/advice/personal-advisor If you would like portfolio...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Returns! [College endowment fund]
Replies: 8
Views: 1846

Re: Shocking Returns!

Dan, it's important to know how they invested. VG total stock market returned 13.4% over the last 12 months, and VG healthcare returned 27%. Investing in recent performance is not a good way to invest. We can't be impressed unless we know what they did. :happy


Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 20, 2015 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The true cost of high expenses
Replies: 2
Views: 1030

Re: The true cost of high expenses

If you have a low cost fund producing X amount of interest and a high cost fund trying to compete, the only option for the higher cost fund is to increase the risk. One way that shows up is in volatility. So the riskier fund may not necessarily have lower returns, but it will definitely have to have...
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happens to Stocks and Bonds When the Fed Raises Rates?
Replies: 4
Views: 883

Re: What Happens to Stocks and Bonds When the Fed Raises Rates?

I think that is why REITS, alternative investments, high dividend stocks, etc are replacing bonds in a lot of portfolios.

Yes they are, and it is a mistake.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happens to Stocks and Bonds When the Fed Raises Rates?
Replies: 4
Views: 883

What Happens to Stocks and Bonds When the Fed Raises Rates?

When bond rates rise. Especially note bond returns at 3 and 5 years after the increase.

What Happens to Stocks and Bonds When the Fed Raises Rates?

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/happens ... ses-rates/

Hold your bond allocations.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Jul 20, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2835

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

Here's an excellent synopses of Jesse Lauriston Livermore's trading life. Livermore ended up losing everything (100 million and his life) on bets during the 29 crash. Why? Wouldn't he have been content on betting "only" 50 million? I can't even fathom such a thing, so I guess I won't hit t...
by pkcrafter
Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficient Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 619

Re: Tax Efficient Allocation

Climber1, questions about tax efficiency are quite common, but more importantly, can you explain a little more about what is confusing you. There can be some complication when you have TR funds in tax-deferred accounts and want to add to taxable, but in your case there should not be much of a proble...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I Really Need a Financial Advisor?
Replies: 44
Views: 2965

Re: Do I Really Need a Financial Advisor?

wce, it isn't likely that American is paying the advisor 1% annually. If the advisor is charging 1% (deducted from returns so you never see it) and charging a load, then he's not acting as a fiduciary. It's likely he's doing one or the other. If he's charging 1%, then the load should have been waive...
by pkcrafter
Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock
Replies: 29
Views: 3557

Re: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock

From ETF Trends: The new filing provides details and expense ratios on the proposed ETFs. For example, the John Hancock Multifactor ETF, which is expected to charge 0.35% per year, will track an index comprised “ a subset of securities in the U.S. Universe issued by companies whose market capitaliza...
by pkcrafter
Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig, Behavioral Finance: What Good Is It, Anyway?
Replies: 21
Views: 2977

Jason Zweig, Behavioral Finance: What Good Is It, Anyway?

Edit: Retitled I'm posting this first, because it's a very insightful read, especially for new investors. Secondly, I'm posting it as another consideration to matjen's post on Shiller and financial singularity. (Theory Forum) Jason Zweig addresses The John F. Kennedy School of Government Program on...
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2506

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

Matjen, what do you mean by "Larry Swedroe for kinda being straw manned by Bob Shiller"

Bob? :happy

Do you not agree with Shiller, or is it simply the mention of Larry Swedroe? It may be true that the book was enough to get Shiller off his chair.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4403

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Yes, if they are reinvested. :happy

What Really Happens to stock price on the ex-dividend date. Short article--

http://groupssa.com/ex-dividendstockpri ... tment.html

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I redesign my retirement portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 1722

Re: How should I redesign my retirement portfolio?

I am putting 15% of my income into my 401k (nearly maxes it out now, will max it out next year), and then investing the rest into taxable accounts. Does this seem reasonable, or should I be thinking about how I'm investing my retirement money differently? Your savings rate is very good, but I don't...

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