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Re: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds

Starbux, nothing wrong predicting, in fact I added my own prediction. Most fund managers don't have the skill or latitude to open a high active share concentrated fund, especially on the back of a market downturn. That's why I think we will see new funds or ETFs which will claim lower risk. Of cours...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1492

Re: My TSP G Fund is not Enough! What other Bonds?

Yes, an engineer, I guessed from the tone and detail of your posts. :happy Lesson 1 - Don't use your engineering skills in investing decisions, there is far too much imprecision. You want to know if your portfolio of 75% stock will not drop more than 33% in the next 10 years, and you want a confiden...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My TSP G Fund is not Enough! What other Bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Asset Allocation w/ New Investment Options in 401k

jemjtell wrote:
Desired Retirement Portfolio Asset Allocation: 75% stocks / 25% bonds

If you are using the two funds you posted, your AA is around 86/14, not 75/25.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 25, 2014 9:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation w/ New Investment Options in 401k
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: My TSP G Fund is not Enough! What other Bonds?

Pickles, the bond issue is minor. F fund and Vanguard's total bond fund track the same index, so they are going to perform almost identically. If you want to use only these funds, then 50% G and 50% the other two, although, it doesn't make that much difference. Another approach that adds a little mo...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 25, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My TSP G Fund is not Enough! What other Bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1142

Re: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds

I am not saying you should buy one or it is a good thing but I think within 5 years we will see a rise and return of the concentrated actively managed fund holding 20-30 stocks. Some will have great results other very mediocre. But those with great results will draw people until they become too lar...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1492

Re: Calculating return

ccd, you have received a lot of good input, and I was going to say don't worry about it. If you are using an index fund such as total stock market and you are benchmarking against TSM then you will get TSM returns, but your returns may be lower due to adding new money over some period of time. That'...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 24
Views: 1728

Re: Can you outperform?

I cannot see if it's posted here however, can you outperform the index? Say you have a three (or four) fund portfolio and invest into it regularly, rebalancing quarterly by adding new money to any lagging index, then over time will you outperform that index given that you have been buying when it h...
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you outperform [an index by rebalancing]?
Replies: 12
Views: 1140

Re: "How to Win the Loser's Game -- Part 9"

Thanks, Taylor, Part 9 is another excellent addition to the series.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Win the Loser's Game -- Part 9"
Replies: 6
Views: 1492

Re: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing

The author here, Ken Winans, appears to very quite good at... aftcasting. He knocks buy and hold, but he doesn't realize Bogleheads are also very good at aftcasting. :happy I compared the performance since 1979 of a buy-and-hold Bogle adherent to that of an investor who sold off Vanguard’s 500 index...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing
Replies: 35
Views: 3767

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

Having said all this, I really wonder if these investors are removing money because of downturns or just because they needed some money and didn't have any other funds--nothing for short term goals, nothing for emergencies. Or because they assumed it was part of severing ties with their previous em...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 29
Views: 4115

Re: 12 Worst financal Advisors

I'm surprised anyone uses an individual financial adviser after Bernie Madoff.... Paul the OP, thanks for the link. Interesting cases and amazing, sad, and frustrating - as always - how easily some clients can be duped. Yes, this was my take away too. That and the comment in the article about findi...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 Worst financal Advisors
Replies: 4
Views: 1435

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

I was so angry upon reading this "advice" that I decided to write my own blog post in response: http://jofijoseph.weebly.com/jofi-joseph-personal-blog/hazard-ahead-the-pitfalls-of-bad-retirement-savings-advice Arnott appears perplexed over the fundamental purpose of 401(k) accounts. Hint:...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 29
Views: 4115

Re: Monthly or annual returns for csrp indices

You might take a look at this post by frans. There is a link in the first post to frans' study on small caps. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=135625&newpost=2136890 And here... http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or annual returns for csrp indices
Replies: 9
Views: 660

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

The high rate of taxable withdrawals with penalty is surprising to us, but it would seem to be a direct reflection of the very poor job that's being done on financial education. Of course part of it has to be a lack of interest on the part of plan contributors--I hesitate to call them investors. Goo...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 29
Views: 4115

Re: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.

The symbols are not tickers, they are JH proprietary symbols and are actually not even mutual funds, but trusts. The higher cost most likely contains administrative fees.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.
Replies: 15
Views: 1395

What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

Article by Rob Arnott & Lillian Wu, Oct, 2014 A recent Fidelity (2014) study reports that, among 12.5 million DC [defined contribution] participants, 41% of those between ages of 20 and 39 cashed out part or all of their DC assets when switching jobs, incurring tax penalties along the way. A rhe...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 29
Views: 4115

12 Worst financal Advisors

This site has several interesting articles. Here is one on the 12 worst advisors. No. 1 Maybe they were too smart for their own good. Gabriel Bitran, a former professor and associate dean of the business school at MIT, and his son bragged that their experience at Wellington Management and degrees fr...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 Worst financal Advisors
Replies: 4
Views: 1435

Re: New Paper ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Retur

Ah, the beauty of owning the whole market. You get exposure to all the factors, whether real or not, whether discovered or not. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Paper ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns"
Replies: 8
Views: 697

Re: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: Thanks for the response. Maybe I shouldn't have posted my current setup. I know some of them overlap but I'd like it to match my desired allocation. The Rollover IRA is pretty much set up with my desired allocation (needs rebalancing but figured I'd wait for the taxable investmen...
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.
Replies: 15
Views: 1395

Re: Help Create a Portfolio Generating 2,500 a month on 600K

Does your mother actually need $5300/month for living expenses? You can do it with some risk that an initial bad sequence of market returns would cause a shortfall, but she does have backup. I think perhaps 50% equity would be about right, but you will get volatility. If the extra money is really ne...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Create a Portfolio Generating 2,500 a month on 600K
Replies: 22
Views: 3758

Re: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.

Just a few comments. You have quite a bit of unneeded fund overlap in your accounts. You could cut the number of funds without altering your AA. For taxable, I'd just use total stock market and/or total international, then get the AA on target through the tax-advantaged accounts. Finally, I don't th...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.
Replies: 15
Views: 1395

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

- If you had to "park" all, or a big chunk of this $3M cash into "something" WHILE you decided/learned what to do with the rest, what would you do? Thanks again- I'm with retiredjg on this one--don't be in a hurry. Maybe the complex Merriman and not too complex coffeehouse would...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4554

Re: need moral support (kinda)

This may not be relevant any longer, but I'm wondering... First thing is recommendations for money marked for a short term purchase, even up to 6-8 years, should not be in stocks. You were, so selling was obviously the right thing to do--and you were lucky. The second question is, was this money act...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need moral support (kinda)
Replies: 33
Views: 2895

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

I'm sure someone will comment about all the money in private REITS, but I just wanted to make a comment on the index issue. I believe most FAs have relationships set up at specific brokerages and your FA may not have something set up with Vanguard, and that could simply be the reason why he's resist...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4554

Re: Industrial broker?

I've been watching your post and waiting for someone to come by and clue us both in on what an industrial broker has to do with 401k selection. Looking up Industrial Broker leads to real estate brokers and industrial development. Maybe I'm missing something, but my guess now is your HR manager has a...
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Industrial broker?
Replies: 1
Views: 270

Re: First investment stratefy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

Too many red flags. Maybe you should interview another advisor.





Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4554

Re: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance

I hate treating all my accounts as one. I have my retirement bucket, my emergency bucket and my current extra income for splurging bucket, each is invested differently and I don't even know how my overall allocation turns out, and keeping bucket portfolio works great in my case... We need to clear ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance
Replies: 57
Views: 3391

Re: Help 81yo Mom - Tactic? & Need N. AL Fee-Planner?

Garrett Planning Network is what I would suggest, but I am going to guess it isn't going to work, especially if you are not going to be there.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help 81yo Mom - Tactic? & Need N. AL Fee-Planner?
Replies: 5
Views: 681

Re: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance

forty-two, my advice is to slow down and do nothing until you get grounded on investing basics. As far as we know, you have only invested in one stock fund, although you've changed the fund a few times I think. Do you even have a target asset allocation? You would be better off to open an IRA in Van...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance
Replies: 57
Views: 3391

Re: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS

Just like every other day of the year, regardless of what the market does. Sure, it's not as fun as "It's a good day to be heavy in [insert whatever is up today]," but are we not Bogleheads? When I read that, my first thought was "Why would he post that?" My second thought was &...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1769

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Victoria wrote:
The problem is not that the market has lost a few percentage points in the past couple weeks. The problem is that the market is dropping fast, which may trigger short selling and a strong downward momentum.

The kind of stuff that triggers panic selling.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28493

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

The problem is not that the market has lost a few percentage points in the past couple weeks. The problem is that the market is dropping fast, which may trigger short selling and a strong downward momentum. Even people with a conservative allocation can't watch it easily--just as people get mesmeri...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28493

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Thanks Victoria and letsgobobby, good feedback. lgb, some time ago you mentioned a risk tolerance investing simulator. Was that a specific simulator you were working on, or were you speaking about risk tolerance quizzes/tests in general? Paul I think sometimes people understand risk better in dolla...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28493

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Thanks Victoria and letsgobobby, good feedback.

lgb, some time ago you mentioned a risk tolerance investing simulator. Was that a specific simulator you were working on, or were you speaking about risk tolerance quizzes/tests in general?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28493

Behavioral Puzzle

Valuethinker, Victoria, and others, I am puzzled by the theory that investors are risk averse. Certainly they are under certain conditions, especially when given odds in advance. However, the behavior of investors seems at times very different. For instance, we have the momentum effect, which I thin...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28493

Re: Roll 401k into new 401k or start IRA?

Rollover to the new 401k is probably a good idea. Where did you get the idea that you would lose 50k by not rolling into the new 401k plan? Matching is for contributions, so that won't make a difference. Also, fees in 401k plans are substantially higher than in an IRA. But before a choice can be mad...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roll 401k into new 401k or start IRA?
Replies: 10
Views: 763

Re: First time investor needs help

Welcome, Hi Bogleheads This is my 1st post after reading this site for many months! After years of sitting on sidelines accumulating cash and not investing it in market due to basic lack of understanding, i finally started reading up on Bogle phylosophy and am finally confident in exposing my asset...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First time investor needs help
Replies: 13
Views: 832

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

EyeYield wrote: I swore I wouldn't read another one of these threads, but evidently I have no life . :happy Bonds are one of the four major asset classes and must be included in a properly constructed portfolio. Bonds are said to be the belt and suspenders of a portfolio. The event that will break y...
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 20589

Re: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz

Thanks Larry, very good discussion. I caught it on radio today.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz
Replies: 13
Views: 1218

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

I don't think Margolis needed to apologize. He provided his opinion and that's all. Anyone who invests all his money on an opinion is the idiot.

This stock crash is a good example of a black swan.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 227
Views: 23072

Re: 401k choices - any good BH options here?

clip wrote: The target funds make me nervous since they are two layers of management, but I will take another look. I'm not sure what you mean by two layers of management. Anyway, the Freedom funds are one option, but the fee is high, and the fund is loaded with a lot of useless junk. You can go wit...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review / 401k vs taxable for low income
Replies: 9
Views: 746

Re: 401k choices - any good BH options here?

These Fidelity Advisor class funds all carry 0.5% commission, which makes them really bad choices for a 401k. I cannot understand why a company would use these as the only choice. You are basically paying for advice whether you want it or not. Be sure you max your IRA/Roth first, then contribute to ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review / 401k vs taxable for low income
Replies: 9
Views: 746

Re: Investing Advice

Thanks for the link to this excellent article. There are some specific situations when brokers must act as fiduciaries — for example, when they collect a percentage of total assets to manage an investment account, or when they are given full control of an investor’s account. But under current rules,...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment advice]
Replies: 9
Views: 966

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

To someone who is more knowledgeable than I: Using hindsight, was there any "warning signs" that this company was about to go under, or was it a complete shock? I know nothing about individual stocks :wink: In reading the thread, it appears that the investors were at first in complete den...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 227
Views: 23072

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

bhsince87 wrote: I replied,
"Diversification!", and told him about my previous experience. I got a promotion soon after that, so I guess he understood!

I'm guessing he learned something important and is now selling off some of his own company stock. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 227
Views: 23072

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

toto, I think you should go to the head of the class. Let's say you have no assets other than 500k in investments and you want to take out a loan. Then you are asked to provide proof that you are worth 500k. You would say 500k and show your statement. But what if the market drops by 50% and you want...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 3630

Re: Investor club

It was never clear exactly what this offer really was as the questions from dbr were never answered. Was this something like a stock option, profit sharing, or was it a club started by the employees? You said "one year into this" but it's been close to 4 year since your OP. Are you saying ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor club
Replies: 15
Views: 1813

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Why not tilt? Well, now it looks like any outperformance from small is mostly due to microcaps. If investors want to get into microcaps, I don't think there will be any problem understanding there is going to higher risk. Value seems to be most effective in small, so the new trendy S/D portfolio now...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 2918
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