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Re: Convert from Investor to Admiral?

Yossarian wrote: Whatever you do, don't sell investor shares to buy admiral. It's a conversion. Not taxable if you move from investor shares to admiral shares of the same fund. Some other points to consider "Changes from Investor Shares to Admiral Shares of the same fund are tax-free" . ht...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert from Investor to Admiral?
Replies: 6
Views: 703

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

Postingname wrote: But I don't remember seeing anything that I could specifically -- off the top of the bat -- apply to investing. A lot of it applies to investing. Have you seen Behavioral Pitfalls in the Wiki? The people over on the dark side of investing also have a blog category about it: http:...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 72
Views: 2997

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

Postingname wrote: I once glanced through the Kahneman/Ariely book since it's so often mentioned here. I recall seeing that yes, there are some biases that one can be aware of but can't really do anything about. We certainly can't do anything if we don't even know what the pitfalls are. So, No. 1 is...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 72
Views: 2997

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

berntson wrote: The beauty of buy-and-hold investing is that it avoids behavioral mistakes by avoiding behavior instead of avoiding mistakes. The less you look at your investments and the fewer choices you have to make, the fewer opportunities there are for getting things wrong. hmm, well, lets just...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 72
Views: 2997

Re: Jason's Zweig's new dictionary ---enjoy

Jason at his best. THRIFT, n. The obsolete practice of spending less money than you earn; once believed to be a virtue, now regarded as a disturbing form of deviant behavior Mel, the only comment I have is Jason missed many words that could have been included. I have a feeling that before the Bogleh...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason's Zweig's new dictionary ---enjoy
Replies: 16
Views: 1109

Re: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life

The curious thing about need and ability to take risk is this: Those who have the ability have very little need, and those that have need have very little ability. If a person retires at 60 with 1MM, 650k in equity and 350k in bonds, and the market drops by 50%, he then has 350k in bonds and 325k in...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life
Replies: 22
Views: 1988

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

I think you're on to something. The Wiki agrees. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls Investors do not net the returns of their funds. The difference is called the behavioral gap. I have come to the conclusion that smart investing is not about maximum returns: it's about minimizing los...
by pkcrafter
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 72
Views: 2997

Re: Recommended Risk assessment questionnaires?

Having searched this forum, I see that opinions of the value of risk assessment questionnaires' are dubious at best. That being said, our son (29) has finally begun to listen to the wisdom of his old man, and now is ready to seriously start investing. I'm looking to connect him to the best question...
by pkcrafter
Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recommended Risk assessment questionnaires?
Replies: 4
Views: 435

Re: Help compare Vanguard Three Fund vs Edward Jones Am. Fun

Retire2044, is your advisor charging you a fee plus the load, or just the loads?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help compare Vanguard Three Fund vs Edward Jones Am. Fund
Replies: 23
Views: 1761

Re: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index

A pitch for equal weighting? Mel's unloved midcaps beat large? A mix of S&P500 and Mid caps will beat the S&P500? Sharpe ratio is higher for mid cap index. Mid did beat large during the time frame the study used. If equal weighing is more efficient, it will become the market index. Interesti...
by pkcrafter
Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index
Replies: 28
Views: 1920

Re: Help finding URL for PDF

Thanks. I am using Firefox and the right click copy worked just fine, and to retrieve it I just had to click paste. I was thrown-off at bit at first by the clipboard comment though, because Win 8.1 doesn't seem to have a clipboard. Here's the link I was trying to display: https://www.fidelity.com/bi...
by pkcrafter
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help finding URL for PDF
Replies: 5
Views: 306

Help finding URL for PDF

I posted this Fidelity article, but what I really wanted to show was the PDF file that is linked in the article. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/quarterly-market-update The PDF link is shown near the top under the title Complete 3rd Quarter Report . If it's opened fr...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help finding URL for PDF
Replies: 5
Views: 306

Re: Index Funds Add to demand or follows ?

Do you mean the price of a stock or price of goods? I don't know, but I'd guess index funds do neither.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Add to demand or follows ?
Replies: 4
Views: 550

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

The Less is More Portfolio.
Total World Stock 75%
Extended Mkt 25%

I'm changing the name to Little Deuce Coup. :happy

Changing this one to Four on the floor

TSM 37.5%
Completion Index 12.5%
Total International 40%
REIT 10%

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 3472

Re: An Interesting Correlation

I agree with all those who commented on the unreliability of correlations, but it is interesting to see how EDV has performed vs TSM by countering drops with sometimes astonishing positive returns. What caught my attention was the SD of EDV. It's 10X Barclay's agg. bond index. It's about 40-50% high...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 1819

Re: Do I need to hold my emergency fund in cash?

1. An emergency fund is basically needed to avoid having to sell retirement investments when they are down. 2. An EF is needed if you lose employment so you don't have to tap retirement funds. When things are bad, you may lose employment when investments are down. Tapping retirement assets when you ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need to hold my emergency fund in cash?
Replies: 29
Views: 3003

An Interesting Correlation

So, you want a diversifier? Have you got the nerve? Correlation of Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ( duration = 24.94) and VTI (total market) is -0.38. You can see the effect here. Zig-zag... http://tinyurl.com/pv295vj EDV performance http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.ac...
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 1819

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

Wow, very creative. I did notice that a lot of entires are non-index. :shock: Dickerson's Straight Eight is a true Hod-Rod portfolio. YDNAL, thanks for the S&P Global 1200, I've never heard of it before. The S&P Global 1200 provides efficient exposure to the global equity market. Capturing a...
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 3472

Fidelity 3rd Q Economic and Market Data

Lots of data here for the data junkies.

The link leads to a Fidelity overview of the 3rd Q update. In this overview you will find links to the PDF file containing the report.

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/quarterly-market-update

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 3rd Q Economic and Market Data
Replies: 1
Views: 276

Re: Experience with financial planner, Bloomington IN?

Try looking on the NAFTA and Garrett Financial Planning Sites. Hourly, fee-only.

Check them out. Here's how...

http://investingroadmap.wordpress.com/2011/02/22/chapter-10-on-your-own-or-hire-an-advisor/

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Experience with financial planner, Bloomington IN?
Replies: 6
Views: 619

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

The Flippin Five: 25% Total Stock Market Index 25% Total International Stock Index 15% FTSE All World Ex-US Small Cap 15% Small Cap Value Index 20% Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund In the land of S and D, I suspect this one is rather popular. Paul The Capsaicin Fund 30% Matthews Emerging Asia Fund M...
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 3472

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

JonnyFive, in the end it comes down to this: there are smarter ways to invest. If this were really a good idea, almost all young investors would be doing it. The fact that you are asking is a sign that you don't know enough to invest in such a portfolio. Risk is even riskier when you don't understan...
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 70
Views: 3891

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

Day9 wrote:Why max 8 funds? Is this a hot rod contest or a Boy Scouts Pinewood Derby?


Oh, OK, strap on the supercharger!
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 3472

Re: "A Boring Investor's Gambling Portfolio" -Allan Roth

I said earlier that Roth's advice is good for those who have to play. However, it's clear that Allan does not need this money for retirement. I also think Nisiprius is right, for those who "must" gamble, if the 5% is lost, a new 5% will just be grabbed from the retirement portfolio, probab...
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "A Boring Investor's Gambling Portfolio" -Allan Roth
Replies: 8
Views: 1527

Re: Reconstructing Vanguard's International Fund in 401k

Questions: 1. How do I mimic the VG Total International Stock Fund in the 401k? The 401k options track different indexes than VG and VG's includes emerging markets. (I can see that it used to be the same index MSCI EAFE + emerging markets). Morningstar tells me that [url]http://portfolios.morningst...
by pkcrafter
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reconstructing Vanguard's International Fund in 401k
Replies: 12
Views: 683

Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

I'd like to see how creative Bogleheads are, so share your ideal S/D equity portfolio (Fantasy portfolio) . Max 8 funds. Also provide an appropriate creative zinger name like Dynamic Duo, Thrifty 3, Core 4, Fab 5, Sniveling Six, :happy, etc. ..... You need to provide % for equity assets, but no need...
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 3472

Re: "A Boring Investor's Gambling Portfolio" -Allan Roth

Thanks for posting the link. Good advice from Roth.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "A Boring Investor's Gambling Portfolio" -Allan Roth
Replies: 8
Views: 1527

Re: Angry when stock market is down

Ahhh, Victoria, you are on a roll today. :happy

Investornoob, it sounds like you need some tough love. Just stand there and 100 Bogleheads will walk by and slap you. :sharebeer

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 3867

Re: Two Fund real Lazy Portfolio?

Is there any reason you can't do a Portfolio made up of Total Stock Market index fund and a Total Bond Market index fund? Seems to me the risk factor is reduced. Is there enough diversification in these two funds? I don't think there is enough diversification. I would simply include international t...
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two Fund real Lazy Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 2192

Re: The interesting friendship between Gold and SCV

I strongly suspect that both gold and small are a behavioral phenomenon. But again, we run into the problem of long periods of unusual performance. In this case, the great expansion of retail investors in the markets and the tech boom. Nineteen years is a long time to hold small caps without any rew...
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The interesting friendship between Gold and SCV
Replies: 3
Views: 346

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

Some nit-picking... OMAHA, Neb. — A theme that keeps cropping up from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at the Berskire Hathaway meeting is their complete disdain for modern portfolio theory and the use of higher-order mathematics in finance. There is a difference between MPT and higher-order math. ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8917

Re: What's your take on this article about annuities vs 10/9

Very bad case of data mining. They didn't even provide the returns they were using, but '84-2000 was an extraordinary time for both bonds and stocks. Their 10/90 portfolio held 1.26M after 5 years, and after 325k in withdrawals. The retirement time frame was 17 years, not 30.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your take on this article about annuities vs 10/90?
Replies: 9
Views: 900

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

JonnyFive wrote:
What would be wrong...

The question should be What could go wrong...

Actually, this would be similar to the Larry Portfolio, but Larry holds a big dose of bonds. Larry is a very smart investor.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 70
Views: 3891

Re: First post, Investment Questions

Have you considered a target retirement (TR) fund? All three funds in one. You haven't mentioned your tax bracket and that has to be considered. The individual funds have a 3k minimum, and admiral shares (lower cost (lower cost) have a 10k minimum. TR funds have a 1k minimum. Vanguard funds, admiral...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First post, Investment Questions
Replies: 31
Views: 1209

Re: would like to protect principal

Since you mentioned your tax bracket, I assume the 500k is in a taxable account and will be needed in 10 years.
For money needed in 10 years, I agree, you don't want too much equity, if any. But it will be tough to get 3-5% return right now.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would like to protect principal
Replies: 15
Views: 964

Re: Vangaurd STAR

Yes, you can transfer, but you shouldn't yet. You're off to a very good start, and now you should hold the fund (it's a good one) and focus on ramping up the learning curve. I think you'll see the Boglehead philosophy fits very well with your own ideas. Once you get familiar with things, then change...
by pkcrafter
Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd STAR
Replies: 31
Views: 1897

Re: Simplicity vs. Complexity

Tet wrote: I like to look at the question as a simple teeter-totter. On one end we have a simpler portfolio with less return and less work. On the other end we have a more complex portfolio with a bit greater return that requires more work. It's basically an even trade off--no free lunch. No free lu...
by pkcrafter
Tue Sep 09, 2014 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity vs. Complexity
Replies: 50
Views: 3310

Re: Less than 30% of active fund managers beat their benchma

I find it more interesting to compare manager funds to actual investable alternatives: real index funds, not just models. See http://www.alphaarchitect.com/blog/2014/09/05/a-new-take-on-the-active-vs-passive-debate/ for example. Despite the site's name (Alpha Architect, no less) they provide nice s...
by pkcrafter
Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less than 30% of active fund managers beat their benchmarks
Replies: 18
Views: 887

Re: question about lazy portfolios --- total newb

deezwho, there are several questions in your post, but I'll just try to address one of them for now. For some information on example portfolios, returns and SD, take a look at this article on Wm Bernstein's Coward's portfolio from Barry Barnitz' new blog. Note: the four fund portfolio shown in the c...
by pkcrafter
Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about lazy portfolios --- total newb
Replies: 3
Views: 439

Re: WellsFargo 401K fees

I haven't seen a 401k plan where the company picks up the costs in a long time, so most likely these fees are passed on to the employees in the plan. Try Brightscope to get an idea of how your particular company plan is rated. Just put your company name in the search box. http://www.brightscope.com/...
by pkcrafter
Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K fees administered by WellsFargo
Replies: 4
Views: 583

Re: What pct of stocks is needed to offer decent inflation p

About 30% stock, but with caveats stated above. TR Income would be a simple choice because it also contains TIPS. The ibonds would help too.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What pct of stocks is needed to offer decent inflation prote
Replies: 32
Views: 2016

Re: 50-50 Wellesley-Wellington or Total Bond-Total Stock

Some thoughts-- *W and W both have multi-managers, which pretty much destroys the idea of the need to find that one exceptional manager. *W and W and a few other active funds from TRP and Dodge and Cox prove that active funds can be good, although fund holders still run a risk of underperformance. T...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50-50 Wellesley-Wellington or Total Bond-Total Stock
Replies: 68
Views: 5367

Re: Variable annuity 100k in fees help (UPDATE)

Trevor, if you have any additional specific questions, just ask and we can address them one at a time. I'm getting the feeling you aren't clear on how to proceed, so maybe what you need to focus on is creating a plan.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 07, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity 100k in fees help (UPDATE)
Replies: 45
Views: 3112

Re: Passive vs Active Investing

I was going to link the same discussion. Near the bottom of the posts in that thread I included a link to a discussion on M*, in which Roche participated. The bottom line here is Roche has a personal agenda.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 07, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs Active Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 856

Re: Portfolio Advice Needed - Newbie Investors

glosing, you have been given good advise, but your situation is very complex, so my advice is to do nothing until you have a plan, which is what you are missing right now. If you can't get the answers you need here, then I would agree that you need an hourly consultation with an advisor to help deve...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice Needed - Newbie Investors
Replies: 26
Views: 1667

Re: Some questions on my financial health and AA

authrd, if you have to ask this question, then you aren't ready for a complex S/D portfolio. Not that Merriman's portfolio or other S/D one's aren't good, but they can be difficult to stick with because of large tracking error and long periods of sub-par performance in one or more of the asset class...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some questions on my financial health and AA
Replies: 23
Views: 1921

Re: Need advice on short-term (bond) mutual funds

I would not use any stock for money needed in two years...unless you are willing to take a chance on the amount being somewhat lower than you had to start with. If you want a short-term bond fund, then short term bond index would be one choice. The problem is you can't get much of a return on anythi...
by pkcrafter
Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on short-term (bond) mutual funds
Replies: 10
Views: 778
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