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by pkcrafter
Tue May 26, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 59
Views: 3258

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

+1 to Abe and TwoByFour. I always enjoy these threads on risk, even though there is never any agreement or conclusion. :happy It's very true that each individual has a different sensitivity to risk. When a 25 yo poster writes that he is risk averse and asks what we think his AA should be, someone wi...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 26, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]
Replies: 10
Views: 1747

Re: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]

Steve, are the returns you posted actually your dollar weighted returns? If so, you would expect to underperform the posted returns of your funds. Both mid value and small value have beaten TSM by 20% over the last ten years. LS Moderate does have a bond duration twice what you have, so that also ac...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different funds
Replies: 10
Views: 721

Re: Different funds

If you have all your money in Vanguard and you are worried enough to split with a second company, the second company will be the one to fail. :mrgreen:

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 59
Views: 3258

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Not sure what Semikger meant, but how about this... Volatility, in itself, is not really risk. "No one ever says the expected return isn't high enough to warrant bearing all that volatility." Howard Marks :happy Volatility does not cause loss. What investors fear is permanent loss. Of cour...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation with large holding in single stock
Replies: 31
Views: 1744

Re: Allocation with large holding in single stock

The past is no excuse for continuing to do something really dumb. Serious behavioral error.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking out a TSP loan to fund Roth IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 853

Re: Taking out a TSP loan to fund Roth IRA

supersharpie: Due to some unanticipated expenses it is doubtful that my wife and I will be able to max out both our tradtional 401ks and Roth IRAs. Right, and due to unanticipated expenses you may not be able to pay back the TSP loan. Sounds like you do not have an emergency fund. My thought is to t...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 23, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need some clarification, just read "Bogleheads guide to investing"
Replies: 10
Views: 1245

Re: need some clarification, just read "Bogleheads guide to investing"

Are you looking for the risk questionnaire? Here's the link, but these questionnaires aren't really much good. Better to get some forum feedback.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsInvQuestionnaire

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat May 23, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?
Replies: 14
Views: 1405

Re: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?

i like about the model that it figures out by itself what the optimal allocation is... Nope, was. [quote[What I don't like is that it has 1 month holding periods. i wonder how sensitive it is if you change that to longer periods, e.g. 3mo or a year.[/quote] The one month span got me too. Does this ...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 23, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?
Replies: 14
Views: 1405

Re: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?

This link to the cited paper might work. http://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=403118115089090089008023070085109018098035091034011074117080024026114017126074094028033027032044109027040104087095009066082117103082007012011090108001006114104084108007015042092098085103024093098127089086109119004079...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 22, 2015 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors
Replies: 1
Views: 458

Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors

Risk Revisited by Howard Marks (Oaktree), 21014. Should be read by all newer investors.

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/ ... isited.pdf

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for younger friend
Replies: 11
Views: 759

Re: Advice for younger friend

satxdrummer wrote: My advice to him was going to be to start an account with Vanguard and buy VTI, VXUS and BND ETF's with an allocation he feels comfortable with Choosing an allocation can be difficult for a new investor. Did your friend give any indication of his feelings on risk tolerance? If not...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to be a successful fund manager
Replies: 7
Views: 630

How to be a successful fund manager

Article on active managers from Forbes, written last year, but of course, still relevant. Successful Mutual-Fund Managers Beat The Competition. Very Few Beat The Market. A study of thousands of mutual-fund managers has found that the key to success isn’t beating the market — only a tiny minority can...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds in Rising Interest Rate Environment
Replies: 11
Views: 736

Re: Bond Funds in Rising Interest Rate Environment

With all the "talking head" financial gurus talking about the rising interest rate environment for bonds, I find that I do not really understand bond funds and ETFs as well as I understand stocks. In a traditional IRA I hold about $180k in the Fidelity Spartan U. S. Bond Index (FSITX). I ...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Latest Attack on Index Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1147

Re: The Latest Attack on Index Funds

whatusername? wrote:I think the author accidentally just made a good argument for rebalancing index holdings and staying the course when things turn south.


:thumbsup

Daftinvestor, thanks for the reminder about Stack. When I read his name, I knew there was something he was known for. :D

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 536

Fixing the 401k

Another article on fixing the 401k, but what's interesting about this one is it points out that there are now 23,000 mutual funds and ETFs and it breaks them down by cost http://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Mutual-Funds.png Comments by David Snowball: We’ll begin with the obvi...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Latest Attack on Index Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1147

The Latest Attack on Index Funds

The active guys must be getting desperate. The latest silly criticism.

How Index Funds Mislead Investors

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/troubl ... 2014-12-30

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting the Past
Replies: 2
Views: 307

Predicting the Past

While doing some research on another topic, I came across this classic post by Taylor Larimore (2013). The quote he provided is from a wise old poster on M* named Ozark. It is worth bringing back. PREDICTING THE PAST If you feel you can improve your portfolio's asset allocation by running the portfo...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 20, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would a nervous self investor be better off with Wellington Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 1622

Re: Would a nervous self investor be better off with Wellington Fund?

wilked wrote:This thread really came full circle...


Yes, and sometimes it's good to get some feedback and be talked down off the ledge. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 20, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got off phone with my Chase Advisor
Replies: 16
Views: 2306

Re: Just got off phone with my Chase Advisor

To add on to my previous stories, I just got off the phone with my new Chase Advisor. Nice guy, takes the time to explain everything, patient, understands my situation so that was a positive. I asked him about the performance of my portfolio. I believe I am in Moderate Growth and Income for Chase S...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 19, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Years of Overlooked Red Flags Catch Up to Stockbroker"
Replies: 12
Views: 2226

Re: "Years of Overlooked Red Flags Catch Up to Stockbroker"

Since Cicolani worked for Merrill and he was raking in millions, ML wasn't going to report him since they were getting a cut. Merrill is Merrill--I've never trusted them. As for FINRA, I've now lost all respect for them. They aren't helpful or trustworthy. Instead, they must be just as corrupt as so...
by pkcrafter
Mon May 18, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best 401K option in terrible plan
Replies: 8
Views: 553

Re: Best 401K option in terrible plan

All 401k plans charge fees, but in different ways. Some, a minority, add the administrative fees to the expense ratios where they can be easily seen. Most don't do this, but you're still paying the fees. First thing to do is check carefully to see if the shown fees are all the fees, or there are add...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 17, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large cap, mid cap, small cap
Replies: 9
Views: 740

Re: Large cap, mid cap, small cap

More from the Wiki if you really want to get into it.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Small_caps

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 17, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly retired couple are comfortable, but would like supplemental income
Replies: 6
Views: 1396

Re: Newly retired couple are comfortable, but would like supplemental income

They have a financial planner (CFP), but I don't think they need one based on the reading I have done. Do you mean they are seeing a FP on a one-time basis for consultation? They may not need one, but their question should only involve an hour or two of work and he may have some useful comments. I ...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 16, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: paying for 401k fees
Replies: 2
Views: 334

Re: paying for 401k fees

Here's some post info on this question.

viewtopic.php?t=129823

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

Re: PDF file locking up computer

Thanks for the additional suggestions. I'll definitely check them out.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Re-balancing Portfolio before retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 930

Re: Help Re-balancing Portfolio before retirement

Mom's portfolio needs a major overhaul, but I'm wondering about the AA. I would not be at 70% stocks this close to retirement unless mom's initial withdrawal rate will be somewhere close to 2%. What will mom need to withdraw for first year's retirement income?


Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

Re: PDF file locking up computer

On my Windows 8.1 machine at work, I've had Acrobat Reader freeze quite frequently. It's just Acrobat that freezes when this occurs, not the entire system. I can get to other programs and have Windows force-close Acrobat. Acrobat particularly seems to do this on PDFs with saved fillable form data, ...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Timing the Market!
Replies: 30
Views: 3015

Re: Talk me out of Timing the Market!

You're 54 and mostly in stocks and you are afraid of bonds? This is like having no fear of facing a grizzly bear, but being afraid of a spider. It's always interesting to see how actually feeling an obvious risk can cause concern whereas not sensing a bigger risk that is just as real but not obvious...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm getting strong impulses to put some money into VGHCX
Replies: 10
Views: 1109

Re: I'm getting strong impulses to put some money into VGHCX

I'm getting strong impulses to put some money into VGHCX Normal. It's your brain and release of dopamine that is pumping you up in anticipation of great returns. And it turns out you will get more kick out of the anticipation than the actual payoff--if there is one. You must learn to control these ...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Help
Replies: 6
Views: 543

Re: Asset Allocation Help

Yes, VBIIX is Int.-bond investor shares. Annnnd, I think you've got it. :moneybag

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my FA set up IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 702

Re: Critique my FA set up IRA

From American Funds website: Class C and 529-C shares — often called level-load shares — do not have an up-front sales charge. After 10 years, Class C shares convert to Class F-1 shares, however, Class 529-C shares do not convert to 529-F-1 shares. You can invest up to $500,000 in Class C shares. Yo...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short term strategy
Replies: 2
Views: 279

Re: Short term strategy

Hi, I generally go for long term investment in individual stock. However, I had a discussion with a friend he said that if he see 100 dollars up in the particular stock, he will immediately sell it and he does this frequently. Just wanted to check if any short term investor follow this type of stra...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Help
Replies: 6
Views: 543

Re: Asset Allocation Help

I think it makes more sense to pick individual funds at this point. What's the ticker for the intermediate bond index? You can find all the Vanguard tickers here. Admiral shares are displayed now, but you can change the amount in the left column to get investor share tickers. https://investor.vangu...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Significant Others 401K Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 714

Re: Advice for Significant Others 401K Portfolio

So pretty much that portfolio is going to have to be managed like ETF's? Manually DCA'd? You might be confusing DCA with rebalancing. Technically, Dollar cost Averaging is a method of adding a lump sum of new money to your investments. For instance, you have 100k in cash and you would put it into t...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Significant Others 401K Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 714

Re: Advice for Significant Others 401K Portfolio

I just looked up 1 year returns on her old portfolio and the new spartan one and FGRIX which had a 12.73% 1 year return and and FDVLX with a 11.83% return. I then took a look at the Spartan 3 fund portfolio combined and the return performance was actually lower? Am I not seeing that correctly? M* s...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Help
Replies: 6
Views: 543

Re: Asset Allocation Help

I need to figure out what fund to purchase in my IRA (currently it has 3k in the Vanguard MM holding fund) Here are some options: Plan 1: Note: You should always add fund names for clarity and reader convenience. For instance, JFIVX is not recognized by M*. 401k - JFIVX - 95% stocks / 5% bonds Roth...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

Re: PDF file locking up computer

Thanks for the suggestions. I removed acrobat and installed DC. Works now. :sharebeer

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is most tax efficient balanced fund in taxable
Replies: 22
Views: 1981

Re: Which is most tax efficient balanced fund in taxable

Taxes won't be a problem at this time, but could be later. I would suggest tax-managed balanced or perhaps LS moderate would be OK too.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

Re: PFD file locking up computer

Windows is actually fairly freeze/crash-proof these days. Most of the issues come from crappy drivers. Without knowing more info, I'll guess there are some heavy graphics in the PDF which Adobe doesn't handle well and therefore the driver for the video card in your computer crashes it. Hit the 'win...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

Re: PFD file locking up computer

Not a Personal Floatation Device...


Well, it could'a been. Maybe a permanent fund dividend, or a public forum debate?

nuts!

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

Re: PDF file locking up computer

mptfan wrote:What is a PFD file?


I dunno :oops:

PDF file

corrected.
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1296

PDF file locking up computer

I'm using win 8.1 and adobe reader. I downloaded a file today and when I tried to click on it, the pointer froze. Had to shut down and restart. This has happened once before with a different file. Any ideas of what's causing this?

thanks,

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 13, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees

You have the expense ratios of the funds, and the 12b-1 fee is included in that number. How are you getting around the up-front commission? There is no load on my shares because the buy-in was over a million. My account is actually 1.4 million, but 600k of that is funds I'm just trustee for and don...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 12, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees

Those 12b-1 fees are charged by, and collected by American. Vanguard has no say in doing anything with them. You get no benefit from American for the 12b-1 fee either. I think you misunderstood my meaning. What I mean is as long as I'm holding onto the stock anyway, I might as well hold the stock a...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 12, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees

essbeer wrote: Currently I have no fees , so the 12b-1s are the only payment on my account. But I'm not really using any services either. According to this article the 12b-1 rebates are common: You have the expense ratios of the funds, and the 12b-1 fee is included in that number. How are you gettin...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 12, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees

That's my fear, that Vanguard is just a giant black hole for these fees where I'd get no benefit in return. Might as well leave them at UBS, where I at least get no cost redemptions. ? Vanguard is the giant black hole? Those 12b-1 fees are charged by, and collected by American. Vanguard has no say ...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 12, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and 12b-1 fees

I mean for when you bring outside investments into Vanguard. I've got about 800k in American Funds that I'd like to sell over time to control capital gains. If Vanguard Advisors can rebate the fees, then the advisors become sort of a no-brainer. But if they can't it might make more sense to keep th...
by pkcrafter
Mon May 11, 2015 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you worry about a correction, you shouldn't own stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 5622

Re: If you worry about a correction, you shouldn't own stocks

I believe while it's very difficult to beat the market return there are some advantages that small investors have like not having huge amounts of money to move around. Buffett said he could get 50% every year if he just had 1 mil investment account. Yeah, there's millions of retail investors who sa...
by pkcrafter
Mon May 11, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Seach posts gone? [Searching for old posts]
Replies: 6
Views: 466

Re: Seach posts gone?

That's it!

Thanks


Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon May 11, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Seach posts gone? [Searching for old posts]
Replies: 6
Views: 466

Re: Seach posts gone?

I wasn't very clear. We used to have a live link that would bring up an individuals (my) recent posts. That feature appears to be gone.

Paul

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