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by pkcrafter
Fri May 29, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1119

Re: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?

nobsinvestor wrote:Yeah so obviously SPIA rates are low today due to low rates in general. My question is- would you guys be more inclined to consider one if rates were substantially higher in the future?

In other words, instead of taking 15 years to break even nominally, what if it only took 8 or 9?


Yes.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 29, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time is different
Replies: 19
Views: 1030

Re: This time is different

Something will happen, sometime. We've been knocking around the bond rates issue since 2011! Sometime, stocks will go down whether bonds do something or not. What to do...What to do...

Oh, yeah, every time is different. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What am I doing wrong ?
Replies: 38
Views: 3615

Re: What am I doing wrong ?

As I understand this, you are 55 and want to ithdraw 55k/year from an 850k portfolio. If true, that's a 6.4% withdrawal rate. That withdrawal rate could be a big problem if you run into a bad market drop. How much in equity?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

We will keep our fingers crossed. If not too much trouble, you could list the funds with lower expenses. Also check for stable value funds.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 76
Views: 6253

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

Ed, I know you're getting a lot of feedback here, but there's one more thing you should do--read a good book on investor behavior. The Wiki article has some good starting information and suggested books at the bottom of the page.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

My idea was to put the 18k intended for the 401k into tax deferred accounts--11k in TIRA and 7k into the 401k and the remainder in taxable, but that was assuming you could hold the 15% tax bracket. It does cost the loss of tax deferred space though. The problem is I don't know if paying those fees f...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 76
Views: 6253

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

I also agree that DCA is your best choice, but it might be useful to know what your needed initial withdrawal % of total assets will be. What stock and bond funds are you planning to use?


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

goingup, I'm not saying the OP should not use the 401k at all, I'm saying it's far better to fund the 401k up to the match, then fully fund traditional IRAs. The IRAs will provide the same tax advantage he gets in the 401k and the TIRA is far more efficient in investing the money. The 401k match doe...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

I think your plan is good. Max out the 401K, despite the pricey funds. You have a simple, effective portfolio construction which is pretty easy to implement. The differences in ERs in your 401K choices are of minor consequence, especially given your current balance there. :wink: Your accumulated sa...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

fungus wrote: The 401k program applies to every business of the holding company. Without knowing 100%, I'm fairly certain the holding company is non-profit as well as two of it's holdings. Ok, but your best option is still to max traditional IRAs because you get the same tax reduction as the 401k an...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

That's a bad plan, so I guess your company is not subject to ERISA rules. Gov related, or non-profit? I would invest up to the match and then fund IRA for you and wife. Then if any left, put it in the 401k. Paul Is there somewhere that outlines exactly what constitutes non-compliance with ERISA in ...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 28, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

fungus wrote in the OP: I plan to max out my $18,000 in pre-tax contributions. I make significantly more in my current job than my previous one and it no longer makes sense to make Roth 401k contributions. And then in a later post you say: I currently max out both of our Roth IRA annually, so no mor...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Capitalization Flaw in Index Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1094

Re: Market Capitalization Flaw in Index Funds

BuyandHoldOn, good name. :happy The market profile is created by the activity of all investors. If indexing gets out of whack, active traders will quickly find the anomalies and bring the market back into line. The worst that can happen is indexing reaches some equilibrium point with active and that...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 99
Views: 5194

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Don't worry, Taylor, there's enough for everyone. :happy


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 99
Views: 5194

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

24 kinds of risk from Howard Marks... 1 Losing money – The possibility of permanent loss is the main form of risk. 2 Falling short – Not having to make necessary payouts or income to live on. 3 Missing opportunities – Not taking enough risk. 4 FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) – Jumping on the bandwagon of...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any impartial advocates for the other point of view?
Replies: 31
Views: 2372

Re: Any impartial advocates for the other point of view?

I just finished reading the Bogleheads Guide to Investing and it has mostly convinced me to fire my money manager (1% fee) and handle things myself. I plan on doing a lot more reading before making any changes. That is a very wise decision. Maybe it says something about your ability to self manager...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Dollar ETF
Replies: 6
Views: 290

Re: Investing in Dollar ETF

Are you referring to USDU, the currently hot EFF that uses shorts? Are you falling for recency bias? The herd is already in, time to get out.

http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23822- ... nopaging=1


Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know you hate Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 24
Views: 1997

Re: I know you hate Whole Life Insurance

Is this a cash value policy or just whole life? I think you had better read carefully about withdrawing from a whole life policy in 5 years just to have some money. It may be that you can only withdraw what you put in and after that, you get a loan. Can't imagine the stipulations and fees on that. T...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 27, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First DIY 401k
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: First DIY 401k

That's a bad plan, so I guess your company is not subject to ERISA rules. Gov related, or non-profit?

I would invest up to the match and then fund IRA for you and wife. Then if any left, put it in the 401k.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue May 26, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 99
Views: 5194

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

+1 to Abe and TwoByFour. I always enjoy these threads on risk, even though there is never any agreement or conclusion. :happy It's very true that each individual has a different sensitivity to risk. When a 25 yo poster writes that he is risk averse and asks what we think his AA should be, someone wi...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 26, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]
Replies: 11
Views: 2092

Re: A Lesson [in Portfolio Simplicity]

Steve, are the returns you posted actually your dollar weighted returns? If so, you would expect to underperform the posted returns of your funds. Both mid value and small value have beaten TSM by 20% over the last ten years. LS Moderate does have a bond duration twice what you have, so that also ac...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different funds
Replies: 10
Views: 764

Re: Different funds

If you have all your money in Vanguard and you are worried enough to split with a second company, the second company will be the one to fail. :mrgreen:

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 99
Views: 5194

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Not sure what Semikger meant, but how about this... Volatility, in itself, is not really risk. "No one ever says the expected return isn't high enough to warrant bearing all that volatility." Howard Marks :happy Volatility does not cause loss. What investors fear is permanent loss. Of cour...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation with large holding in single stock
Replies: 32
Views: 1857

Re: Allocation with large holding in single stock

The past is no excuse for continuing to do something really dumb. Serious behavioral error.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 24, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking out a TSP loan to fund Roth IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 883

Re: Taking out a TSP loan to fund Roth IRA

supersharpie: Due to some unanticipated expenses it is doubtful that my wife and I will be able to max out both our tradtional 401ks and Roth IRAs. Right, and due to unanticipated expenses you may not be able to pay back the TSP loan. Sounds like you do not have an emergency fund. My thought is to t...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 23, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need some clarification, just read "Bogleheads guide to investing"
Replies: 10
Views: 1259

Re: need some clarification, just read "Bogleheads guide to investing"

Are you looking for the risk questionnaire? Here's the link, but these questionnaires aren't really much good. Better to get some forum feedback.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsInvQuestionnaire

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat May 23, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?
Replies: 14
Views: 1429

Re: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?

i like about the model that it figures out by itself what the optimal allocation is... Nope, was. [quote[What I don't like is that it has 1 month holding periods. i wonder how sensitive it is if you change that to longer periods, e.g. 3mo or a year.[/quote] The one month span got me too. Does this ...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 23, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?
Replies: 14
Views: 1429

Re: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?

This link to the cited paper might work. http://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=403118115089090089008023070085109018098035091034011074117080024026114017126074094028033027032044109027040104087095009066082117103082007012011090108001006114104084108007015042092098085103024093098127089086109119004079...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 22, 2015 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors
Replies: 1
Views: 490

Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors

Risk Revisited by Howard Marks (Oaktree), 21014. Should be read by all newer investors.

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/ ... isited.pdf

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for younger friend
Replies: 11
Views: 762

Re: Advice for younger friend

satxdrummer wrote: My advice to him was going to be to start an account with Vanguard and buy VTI, VXUS and BND ETF's with an allocation he feels comfortable with Choosing an allocation can be difficult for a new investor. Did your friend give any indication of his feelings on risk tolerance? If not...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to be a successful fund manager
Replies: 12
Views: 1188

How to be a successful fund manager

Article on active managers from Forbes, written last year, but of course, still relevant. Successful Mutual-Fund Managers Beat The Competition. Very Few Beat The Market. A study of thousands of mutual-fund managers has found that the key to success isn’t beating the market — only a tiny minority can...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds in Rising Interest Rate Environment
Replies: 11
Views: 746

Re: Bond Funds in Rising Interest Rate Environment

With all the "talking head" financial gurus talking about the rising interest rate environment for bonds, I find that I do not really understand bond funds and ETFs as well as I understand stocks. In a traditional IRA I hold about $180k in the Fidelity Spartan U. S. Bond Index (FSITX). I ...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Latest Attack on Index Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1155

Re: The Latest Attack on Index Funds

whatusername? wrote:I think the author accidentally just made a good argument for rebalancing index holdings and staying the course when things turn south.


:thumbsup

Daftinvestor, thanks for the reminder about Stack. When I read his name, I knew there was something he was known for. :D

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 543

Fixing the 401k

Another article on fixing the 401k, but what's interesting about this one is it points out that there are now 23,000 mutual funds and ETFs and it breaks them down by cost http://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Mutual-Funds.png Comments by David Snowball: We’ll begin with the obvi...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Latest Attack on Index Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1155

The Latest Attack on Index Funds

The active guys must be getting desperate. The latest silly criticism.

How Index Funds Mislead Investors

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/troubl ... 2014-12-30

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 21, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting the Past
Replies: 2
Views: 309

Predicting the Past

While doing some research on another topic, I came across this classic post by Taylor Larimore (2013). The quote he provided is from a wise old poster on M* named Ozark. It is worth bringing back. PREDICTING THE PAST If you feel you can improve your portfolio's asset allocation by running the portfo...
by pkcrafter
Wed May 20, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would a nervous self investor be better off with Wellington Fund?
Replies: 17
Views: 1952

Re: Would a nervous self investor be better off with Wellington Fund?

wilked wrote:This thread really came full circle...


Yes, and sometimes it's good to get some feedback and be talked down off the ledge. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed May 20, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just got off phone with my Chase Advisor
Replies: 16
Views: 2313

Re: Just got off phone with my Chase Advisor

To add on to my previous stories, I just got off the phone with my new Chase Advisor. Nice guy, takes the time to explain everything, patient, understands my situation so that was a positive. I asked him about the performance of my portfolio. I believe I am in Moderate Growth and Income for Chase S...
by pkcrafter
Tue May 19, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Years of Overlooked Red Flags Catch Up to Stockbroker"
Replies: 12
Views: 2235

Re: "Years of Overlooked Red Flags Catch Up to Stockbroker"

Since Cicolani worked for Merrill and he was raking in millions, ML wasn't going to report him since they were getting a cut. Merrill is Merrill--I've never trusted them. As for FINRA, I've now lost all respect for them. They aren't helpful or trustworthy. Instead, they must be just as corrupt as so...
by pkcrafter
Mon May 18, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best 401K option in terrible plan
Replies: 8
Views: 560

Re: Best 401K option in terrible plan

All 401k plans charge fees, but in different ways. Some, a minority, add the administrative fees to the expense ratios where they can be easily seen. Most don't do this, but you're still paying the fees. First thing to do is check carefully to see if the shown fees are all the fees, or there are add...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 17, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large cap, mid cap, small cap
Replies: 9
Views: 748

Re: Large cap, mid cap, small cap

More from the Wiki if you really want to get into it.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Small_caps

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 17, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly retired couple are comfortable, but would like supplemental income
Replies: 6
Views: 1405

Re: Newly retired couple are comfortable, but would like supplemental income

They have a financial planner (CFP), but I don't think they need one based on the reading I have done. Do you mean they are seeing a FP on a one-time basis for consultation? They may not need one, but their question should only involve an hour or two of work and he may have some useful comments. I ...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 16, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: paying for 401k fees
Replies: 2
Views: 335

Re: paying for 401k fees

Here's some post info on this question.

viewtopic.php?t=129823

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1304

Re: PDF file locking up computer

Thanks for the additional suggestions. I'll definitely check them out.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Re-balancing Portfolio before retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 939

Re: Help Re-balancing Portfolio before retirement

Mom's portfolio needs a major overhaul, but I'm wondering about the AA. I would not be at 70% stocks this close to retirement unless mom's initial withdrawal rate will be somewhere close to 2%. What will mom need to withdraw for first year's retirement income?


Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PDF file locking up computer
Replies: 20
Views: 1304

Re: PDF file locking up computer

On my Windows 8.1 machine at work, I've had Acrobat Reader freeze quite frequently. It's just Acrobat that freezes when this occurs, not the entire system. I can get to other programs and have Windows force-close Acrobat. Acrobat particularly seems to do this on PDFs with saved fillable form data, ...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 15, 2015 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Timing the Market!
Replies: 30
Views: 3031

Re: Talk me out of Timing the Market!

You're 54 and mostly in stocks and you are afraid of bonds? This is like having no fear of facing a grizzly bear, but being afraid of a spider. It's always interesting to see how actually feeling an obvious risk can cause concern whereas not sensing a bigger risk that is just as real but not obvious...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm getting strong impulses to put some money into VGHCX
Replies: 10
Views: 1112

Re: I'm getting strong impulses to put some money into VGHCX

I'm getting strong impulses to put some money into VGHCX Normal. It's your brain and release of dopamine that is pumping you up in anticipation of great returns. And it turns out you will get more kick out of the anticipation than the actual payoff--if there is one. You must learn to control these ...
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Help
Replies: 6
Views: 547

Re: Asset Allocation Help

Yes, VBIIX is Int.-bond investor shares. Annnnd, I think you've got it. :moneybag

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu May 14, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my FA set up IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 705

Re: Critique my FA set up IRA

From American Funds website: Class C and 529-C shares — often called level-load shares — do not have an up-front sales charge. After 10 years, Class C shares convert to Class F-1 shares, however, Class 529-C shares do not convert to 529-F-1 shares. You can invest up to $500,000 in Class C shares. Yo...

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