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Re: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing

The author here, Ken Winans, appears to very quite good at... aftcasting. He knocks buy and hold, but he doesn't realize Bogleheads are also very good at aftcasting. :happy I compared the performance since 1979 of a buy-and-hold Bogle adherent to that of an investor who sold off Vanguard’s 500 index...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 832

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

Having said all this, I really wonder if these investors are removing money because of downturns or just because they needed some money and didn't have any other funds--nothing for short term goals, nothing for emergencies. Or because they assumed it was part of severing ties with their previous em...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 2999

Re: 12 Worst financal Advisors

I'm surprised anyone uses an individual financial adviser after Bernie Madoff.... Paul the OP, thanks for the link. Interesting cases and amazing, sad, and frustrating - as always - how easily some clients can be duped. Yes, this was my take away too. That and the comment in the article about findi...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 Worst financal Advisors
Replies: 4
Views: 1305

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

I was so angry upon reading this "advice" that I decided to write my own blog post in response: http://jofijoseph.weebly.com/jofi-joseph-personal-blog/hazard-ahead-the-pitfalls-of-bad-retirement-savings-advice Arnott appears perplexed over the fundamental purpose of 401(k) accounts. Hint:...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 2999

Re: Monthly or annual returns for csrp indices

You might take a look at this post by frans. There is a link in the first post to frans' study on small caps. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=135625&newpost=2136890 And here... http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or annual returns for csrp indices
Replies: 9
Views: 641

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

The high rate of taxable withdrawals with penalty is surprising to us, but it would seem to be a direct reflection of the very poor job that's being done on financial education. Of course part of it has to be a lack of interest on the part of plan contributors--I hesitate to call them investors. Goo...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 2999

Re: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.

The symbols are not tickers, they are JH proprietary symbols and are actually not even mutual funds, but trusts. The higher cost most likely contains administrative fees.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.
Replies: 15
Views: 1261

What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

Article by Rob Arnott & Lillian Wu, Oct, 2014 A recent Fidelity (2014) study reports that, among 12.5 million DC [defined contribution] participants, 41% of those between ages of 20 and 39 cashed out part or all of their DC assets when switching jobs, incurring tax penalties along the way. A rhe...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 2999

12 Worst financal Advisors

This site has several interesting articles. Here is one on the 12 worst advisors. No. 1 Maybe they were too smart for their own good. Gabriel Bitran, a former professor and associate dean of the business school at MIT, and his son bragged that their experience at Wellington Management and degrees fr...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 Worst financal Advisors
Replies: 4
Views: 1305

Re: New Paper ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Retur

Ah, the beauty of owning the whole market. You get exposure to all the factors, whether real or not, whether discovered or not. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Paper ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns"
Replies: 7
Views: 499

Re: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: Thanks for the response. Maybe I shouldn't have posted my current setup. I know some of them overlap but I'd like it to match my desired allocation. The Rollover IRA is pretty much set up with my desired allocation (needs rebalancing but figured I'd wait for the taxable investmen...
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.
Replies: 15
Views: 1261

Re: Help Create a Portfolio Generating 2,500 a month on 600K

Does your mother actually need $5300/month for living expenses? You can do it with some risk that an initial bad sequence of market returns would cause a shortfall, but she does have backup. I think perhaps 50% equity would be about right, but you will get volatility. If the extra money is really ne...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Create a Portfolio Generating 2,500 a month on 600K
Replies: 22
Views: 3703

Re: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.

Just a few comments. You have quite a bit of unneeded fund overlap in your accounts. You could cut the number of funds without altering your AA. For taxable, I'd just use total stock market and/or total international, then get the AA on target through the tax-advantaged accounts. Finally, I don't th...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for 29YO - First Taxable Investment Cont.
Replies: 15
Views: 1261

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

- If you had to "park" all, or a big chunk of this $3M cash into "something" WHILE you decided/learned what to do with the rest, what would you do? Thanks again- I'm with retiredjg on this one--don't be in a hurry. Maybe the complex Merriman and not too complex coffeehouse would...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4489

Re: need moral support (kinda)

This may not be relevant any longer, but I'm wondering... First thing is recommendations for money marked for a short term purchase, even up to 6-8 years, should not be in stocks. You were, so selling was obviously the right thing to do--and you were lucky. The second question is, was this money act...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need moral support (kinda)
Replies: 33
Views: 2880

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

I'm sure someone will comment about all the money in private REITS, but I just wanted to make a comment on the index issue. I believe most FAs have relationships set up at specific brokerages and your FA may not have something set up with Vanguard, and that could simply be the reason why he's resist...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4489

Re: Industrial broker?

I've been watching your post and waiting for someone to come by and clue us both in on what an industrial broker has to do with 401k selection. Looking up Industrial Broker leads to real estate brokers and industrial development. Maybe I'm missing something, but my guess now is your HR manager has a...
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Industrial broker?
Replies: 1
Views: 266

Re: First investment stratefy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

Too many red flags. Maybe you should interview another advisor.





Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4489

Re: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance

I hate treating all my accounts as one. I have my retirement bucket, my emergency bucket and my current extra income for splurging bucket, each is invested differently and I don't even know how my overall allocation turns out, and keeping bucket portfolio works great in my case... We need to clear ...
by pkcrafter
Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance
Replies: 57
Views: 3372

Re: Help 81yo Mom - Tactic? & Need N. AL Fee-Planner?

Garrett Planning Network is what I would suggest, but I am going to guess it isn't going to work, especially if you are not going to be there.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help 81yo Mom - Tactic? & Need N. AL Fee-Planner?
Replies: 5
Views: 677

Re: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance

forty-two, my advice is to slow down and do nothing until you get grounded on investing basics. As far as we know, you have only invested in one stock fund, although you've changed the fund a few times I think. Do you even have a target asset allocation? You would be better off to open an IRA in Van...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: -11.33% YTD, asking for some guidance
Replies: 57
Views: 3372

Re: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS

Just like every other day of the year, regardless of what the market does. Sure, it's not as fun as "It's a good day to be heavy in [insert whatever is up today]," but are we not Bogleheads? When I read that, my first thought was "Why would he post that?" My second thought was &...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1766

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Victoria wrote:
The problem is not that the market has lost a few percentage points in the past couple weeks. The problem is that the market is dropping fast, which may trigger short selling and a strong downward momentum.

The kind of stuff that triggers panic selling.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28231

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

The problem is not that the market has lost a few percentage points in the past couple weeks. The problem is that the market is dropping fast, which may trigger short selling and a strong downward momentum. Even people with a conservative allocation can't watch it easily--just as people get mesmeri...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28231

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Thanks Victoria and letsgobobby, good feedback. lgb, some time ago you mentioned a risk tolerance investing simulator. Was that a specific simulator you were working on, or were you speaking about risk tolerance quizzes/tests in general? Paul I think sometimes people understand risk better in dolla...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28231

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Thanks Victoria and letsgobobby, good feedback.

lgb, some time ago you mentioned a risk tolerance investing simulator. Was that a specific simulator you were working on, or were you speaking about risk tolerance quizzes/tests in general?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28231

Behavioral Puzzle

Valuethinker, Victoria, and others, I am puzzled by the theory that investors are risk averse. Certainly they are under certain conditions, especially when given odds in advance. However, the behavior of investors seems at times very different. For instance, we have the momentum effect, which I thin...
by pkcrafter
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28231

Re: Roll 401k into new 401k or start IRA?

Rollover to the new 401k is probably a good idea. Where did you get the idea that you would lose 50k by not rolling into the new 401k plan? Matching is for contributions, so that won't make a difference. Also, fees in 401k plans are substantially higher than in an IRA. But before a choice can be mad...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roll 401k into new 401k or start IRA?
Replies: 10
Views: 761

Re: First time investor needs help

Welcome, Hi Bogleheads This is my 1st post after reading this site for many months! After years of sitting on sidelines accumulating cash and not investing it in market due to basic lack of understanding, i finally started reading up on Bogle phylosophy and am finally confident in exposing my asset...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First time investor needs help
Replies: 13
Views: 829

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

EyeYield wrote: I swore I wouldn't read another one of these threads, but evidently I have no life . :happy Bonds are one of the four major asset classes and must be included in a properly constructed portfolio. Bonds are said to be the belt and suspenders of a portfolio. The event that will break y...
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 20256

Re: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz

Thanks Larry, very good discussion. I caught it on radio today.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz
Replies: 13
Views: 1198

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

I don't think Margolis needed to apologize. He provided his opinion and that's all. Anyone who invests all his money on an opinion is the idiot.

This stock crash is a good example of a black swan.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 215
Views: 20278

Re: 401k choices - any good BH options here?

clip wrote: The target funds make me nervous since they are two layers of management, but I will take another look. I'm not sure what you mean by two layers of management. Anyway, the Freedom funds are one option, but the fee is high, and the fund is loaded with a lot of useless junk. You can go wit...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review / 401k choices - any good BH options here?
Replies: 8
Views: 624

Re: 401k choices - any good BH options here?

These Fidelity Advisor class funds all carry 0.5% commission, which makes them really bad choices for a 401k. I cannot understand why a company would use these as the only choice. You are basically paying for advice whether you want it or not. Be sure you max your IRA/Roth first, then contribute to ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review / 401k choices - any good BH options here?
Replies: 8
Views: 624

Re: Investing Advice

Thanks for the link to this excellent article. There are some specific situations when brokers must act as fiduciaries — for example, when they collect a percentage of total assets to manage an investment account, or when they are given full control of an investor’s account. But under current rules,...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment advice]
Replies: 9
Views: 949

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

To someone who is more knowledgeable than I: Using hindsight, was there any "warning signs" that this company was about to go under, or was it a complete shock? I know nothing about individual stocks :wink: In reading the thread, it appears that the investors were at first in complete den...
by pkcrafter
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 215
Views: 20278

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

bhsince87 wrote: I replied,
"Diversification!", and told him about my previous experience. I got a promotion soon after that, so I guess he understood!

I'm guessing he learned something important and is now selling off some of his own company stock. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 215
Views: 20278

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

toto, I think you should go to the head of the class. Let's say you have no assets other than 500k in investments and you want to take out a loan. Then you are asked to provide proof that you are worth 500k. You would say 500k and show your statement. But what if the market drops by 50% and you want...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 3608

Re: Investor club

It was never clear exactly what this offer really was as the questions from dbr were never answered. Was this something like a stock option, profit sharing, or was it a club started by the employees? You said "one year into this" but it's been close to 4 year since your OP. Are you saying ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor club
Replies: 15
Views: 1813

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Why not tilt? Well, now it looks like any outperformance from small is mostly due to microcaps. If investors want to get into microcaps, I don't think there will be any problem understanding there is going to higher risk. Value seems to be most effective in small, so the new trendy S/D portfolio now...
by pkcrafter
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 2902

Re: New Investor - Fidelity freedom funds

juggy wrote: I am paying off college loans on a monthly basis. Good. 20% International was me being a bit conservative. I do not mind increasing that number as I can afford some risk at this point. 20% in international is OK. Vanguard 15%: These funds are still in the process of being transferred ov...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor - Fidelity freedom funds
Replies: 91
Views: 3886

Re: New Investor - Fidelity freedom funds

Comments are in blue.. Note: New information in red. [quote="juggyjt"]Reply to Portfolio questions: Emergency funds: Have this Debt: School loans ( 47k and average interest rate of 5.5%) <--work on this every month Credit cards (2K and interest rate of 18.2%) <--Agree with Sliu, pay off w...
by pkcrafter
Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor - Fidelity freedom funds
Replies: 91
Views: 3886

Re: Is it normal to lose $$$?

What is the percentage in each of the 3 funds?

Total international lost 7% over the past month. Total stock lost about 2% and total bond gained 1%.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it normal to lose $$$?
Replies: 26
Views: 3984

Re: GF leaving advisor, help needed

Abyan, thanks for responding. With regards to the transfer, the new account will be on the brokerage side. She will sell the stocks and then purchase Total Stock, Total International and Total Bond. PKcrafter mentioned that she will have to open a new account on the mutual fund side as well. We wil...
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GF leaving advisor, help needed
Replies: 22
Views: 2501

Re: Finding inexpensive funds to use to avoid wash sales

What about Vanguard Total International?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Oct 05, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding inexpensive funds to use to avoid wash sales
Replies: 17
Views: 951

Re: GF leaving advisor, help needed

2. Will VG rollover the two existing IRAs into 1 IRA?? What fees are involved in this transaction?? The new IRA would be valued at $240K. I think so, but you have to be very careful with transferring when things are more complicated. You might also find out if present 401k will accept old 401ks. Th...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GF leaving advisor, help needed
Replies: 22
Views: 2501

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

Simplegift, I going to have to agree with you regarding bonds. And, of course, we have to have faith in the economic system to invest in anything.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 75
Views: 4770

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

As always too, if you are talking about 30 - 40 year periods you have two independent data points. How can one generalize or have confidence in only two data points? Sure the graph looks nice. But if one stops to think about it a little deeper they may come to the understanding that betting on 2 da...
by pkcrafter
Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 75
Views: 4770
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