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Re: Best Way to Visualize Compounding

Thank you for all the references and ideas. I'm just trying to help my community to do more than just keep it in savings when they are still young. I'll encourage them to go to Bogleheads.org to learn more. I agree that investment carries risk so that part is easily understood. That is why many jus...
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Way to Visualize Compounding
Replies: 20
Views: 1737

Re: All lazy portfolios impossible at Vanguard?

retiredjg wrote:
sawhorse wrote:All lazy portfolios impossible at Vanguard?

I have to say this made me laugh. What could be lazier than a Vanguard Target Fund? :happy

Well, that's the thing about "lazy portfolios," they aren't exactly lazy.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All lazy portfolios impossible at Vanguard?
Replies: 15
Views: 1603

Re: 33 year old with questions on 401k and building wealth

Pugsley, you are doing a great job by putting 15% away for retirement. Here's a link to approximating total stock market. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approximating_total_stock_market I agree with Ruralavelon on the investing sequence--401k to the match using S&P 500 and extended market. Don't...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 year old with questions on 401k and building wealth
Replies: 14
Views: 1786

Re: Newbie planner with windfall and no real portfolio: help

sawhorse, lightfall wrote this:
Desired Asset allocation: Risk averse, not sure.
I take this to mean his retirement investments, and it's why I thought he should list the funds he's in. Also, we have to understand his meaning of risk averse. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie planner with windfall and no real portfolio: help!
Replies: 19
Views: 1221

Re: Newbie planner with windfall and no real portfolio: help

lightfall: I am considering taking 200k of those funds I want to be conservative with and plunking them into the following vanguard funds: 28% $56,000.00 Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) 12% $24,000.00 Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) 48% $96,000.00 Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie planner with windfall and no real portfolio: help!
Replies: 19
Views: 1221

Re: Retirement calculation lies?

toto wrote: And this is why we don't often go into the difference between CAGR vs "average return" very often. I understood exactly what these posters are talking about, but 99% of the public would be clueless. It makes investing seem intimidating, scary, and complex, when it really isn't ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 29, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement calculation lies? [Geometric vs. arithmetic mean]
Replies: 44
Views: 3950

Re: Risk Questionnaires: How they work?

How and why would they be the same? I did not believe they would be the same but I wondered if there was some universal formula from academia that all these surveys are based on. Let's try something, nbui. Have you been through a market crash? What do you believe your tolerance for losses is? What ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Questionnaires: How they work?
Replies: 17
Views: 979

Re: Peer-review my IPS?

Welcome, your IPS sounds very thorough, so just a few comments. Desired Asset allocation: 90% stocks / 10% bonds How did you arrive at this AA (asset allocation)? - We will always contribute the max allowed to at least one of our IRAs each year That's not going to enough. You should shoot for maxing...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Peer-review my IPS?
Replies: 6
Views: 740

Re: Is BND really safe?

So... stocks are now safer than bonds? Better rethink this. :wink:

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is BND really safe?
Replies: 12
Views: 1491

Re: Beginning Dividend Investing For Passive Income

beastykato, I looked at a few of your earlier posts and learned you are about 31 years old. You are now talking about dividends as a way to pay yourself before retirement and beyond? In a taxable account. When you take these dividends, what are you going to do with them? First, you have to realize d...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginning Dividend Investing For Passive Income
Replies: 14
Views: 1481

Re: 'Randomly Selected Stocks fund' vs Market cap Index...

Arends: Traditional stock indexes, such as the S&P 500 and even the MSCI World Index, are deeply flawed . That is a ridiculous statement and Arends knows it. It's only meant to stir the pot. There is a similar comment in your link to the UK article. Tell all the investors who created the market ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Randomly Selected Stocks fund' vs Market cap Index...
Replies: 5
Views: 647

Re: "Are Index-Fund Investors Smarter?"

Smarter? Perhaps wiser. :idea:

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 28, 2015 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Index-Fund Investors Smarter?"
Replies: 10
Views: 1282

Re: Risk Questionnaires: How they work?

I agree with Lack_ey and dbr. Risk tolerance is very individualistic--problem 1. Risk tolerance questionnaire results will vary from one test to another for the same individual--problem 2. A new investor won't know how to accurately answer the questions--problem 3. Look at the following question: If...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Questionnaires: How they work?
Replies: 17
Views: 979

Re: Retirement calculation lies?

sawhorse, the purpose of the examples you cited are to demonstrate the power of compounding. And you are right, the more volatility, the lower the geo return vs average return.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement calculation lies? [Geometric vs. arithmetic mean]
Replies: 44
Views: 3950

Re: How to conservatively Manage Investments

philly, you make sound like you are 100% equity, but I doubt that. What is your current asset allocation (AA)? Please list current portfolio w/names and tickers.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to conservatively Manage Investments
Replies: 8
Views: 744

Re: Future investment strategy

YB, what is your current withdrawal rate?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Future investment strategy
Replies: 4
Views: 362

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

gbru, have you actually experienced a market crash? Kevlar, asking this question will generate a wide range of opinions and experience, but it's still very difficult to know how you are going to react. Some investors actually carry a risk gene, so if you get a reply from someone who does and you don...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 73
Views: 4809

Re: Capital preservation in retirement

b_glenn, is this money in taxable or IRA/Roth? If tax protected, you might consider TR income (30% stock) or lifestrategy moderate which is 60%. The goal is to keep things simple and yet diversified. TR income does hold some TIPS, and with LS moderate, you could add a short term bond fund to get the...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital preservation in retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 2600

Re: CRR Boston College: "Why I Dropped My Financial Adviser

From the comments: First, let me lay out a pair of facts. Individual investors on average, realize returns on invested assets several percentage points below those that use professional investment managers. I'm not sure how to interpret this. Does he mean professional investors do better than retai...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CRR Boston College: "Why I Dropped My Financial Adviser"
Replies: 21
Views: 2519

Re: Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 total returns since incept

Thomas wrote:
Taylor Larimore: you seem to have a history of making presumptuous and condescending posts like this. You don't know my intentions, so don't tell me I'm making a "mistake".

Great start on the forum, Thomas. Now you've definitely made a mistake. :oops:

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 total returns since inception
Replies: 11
Views: 764

Re: CRR Boston College: "Why I Dropped My Financial Adviser

From the comments: First, let me lay out a pair of facts. Individual investors on average, realize returns on invested assets several percentage points below those that use professional investment managers. I'm not sure how to interpret this. Does he mean professional investors do better than retail...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CRR Boston College: "Why I Dropped My Financial Adviser"
Replies: 21
Views: 2519

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

Maynard, you posted a chart of returns from M* above. Do you have a link to that article? As to monkey outperformance, if you throw a dart at all the stocks in total market you will get a disproportion of small and mid, which explains the outperformance. Now if you had a board with squares in propor...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2585

Re: U.S. cash pouring into international

Twins fan: The article is about Europe only. Which even though a bigger part of total international, I don't believe international investing when talked about in here means just Europe. Yes, it's about Europe, but inflows are certainly reflected in TISM. Wagnerjb wrote: The posts about whether inter...
by pkcrafter
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. cash pouring into international
Replies: 23
Views: 2423

U.S. cash pouring into international

Article from CNN -- Cash pouring into International stocks/funds.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/24/investi ... index.html

Hmm, haven't we been seeing recent posts asking if international is really needed?

VG total international YTD = +6.23%
VG TSM YTD = +2.78%

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. cash pouring into international
Replies: 23
Views: 2423

Re: Is structured settlement annuity investing a good deal?

I like Kitces, but I'm very leery of this. The inspiration for today's blog post has been a series of inquiries I've received from other planners over the past month, whose clients are being solicited to invest in structured settlement annuities , Kitches neglects to tell us what cut the solicitors ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is structured settlement annuity investing a good deal?
Replies: 7
Views: 739

Re: What do you think??

But, Paul, you did post a clickable link. :happy

The article is rather silly, and I wonder what the author meant by this:
Radical intervention, not more time, is often the solution.


No, that's not the solution.

another paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think??
Replies: 2
Views: 535

Re: 4 Fund Portolio without bonds

And the layman's summary translation is? Educate yourself on the fundamentals of investing but not by reading Merriman, at least not articles like that one. Indeed am trying to follow and be even more educated, standard deviation and Sharpe aside, is it that there is inherently more risk by deviati...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Fund Portolio without bonds
Replies: 35
Views: 2638

Re: 4 Fund Portolio without bonds

What's the major differentiation vs TSM, a tilt towards small caps? Tilt? 50% in small is more than a tilt. chessmannextmove: And the higher return should "persist" if the risk does. Yes, the higher return will persist, but it persists because it's difficult to capture and it's probably d...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Fund Portolio without bonds
Replies: 35
Views: 2638

Re: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees

Ics, I can't help wondering if you had gotten the accounts combined, you would have still been charged for closing accounts. Seems like EJ gets paid no matter what you do.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees
Replies: 90
Views: 6928

Re: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees

The bad publicity you've generated is probably going to cost them more than what they've charged you. You might want to look at a few of these sites too.

EJ complaints

https://www.google.com/search?q=edward+ ... 8&oe=utf-8

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees
Replies: 90
Views: 6928

Re: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold fe

Paul, I bought all 4 funds like this 35% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) 15% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (VGTSX) 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX) 10% Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund Invest...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold feet
Replies: 60
Views: 3651

Re: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold fe

Helen, you still have not provided enough information to provide the big picture. Even the 4 funds you invested in do not show % invested in each. Did you use these four funds or buy a target retirement fund? As for the rest of your portfolio, you mentioned Verison stocks. How much of your retiremen...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold feet
Replies: 60
Views: 3651

Re: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees

Ics, wow, what a mess this is turning into. :confused What is the reason they give you for ignoring your request to combine the accounts? Write directly to the compliance dept. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCUQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees
Replies: 90
Views: 6928

Re: What Behavior Gap?

Derek wrote: Additionally, we can use the aggregate data sets to make the point that the average investor beat a passive dollar cost averaging investor over 20 years... but that doesn't make for good marketing. Bad behavior exists, but it's certainly not exclusive to the lowly individual DIY investo...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Behavior Gap?
Replies: 23
Views: 1855

Re: Lump sum - how to invest it now and sleep at night?

We don't know your actual comfort level and it's likely you don't either. If you've just received a large sum of money I don't think you need 80% in equity. I would suggest 60/40, but only if you feel you can be comfortable with that and HOLD during a nerve-shattering drawdown. The worst thing you c...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum - how to invest it now and sleep at night?
Replies: 27
Views: 3209

Re: What Behavior Gap?

Derek, Dalbar's calculation method might result in losses being overstated, but there is no question that behavior is the major contributor to lower returns. You don't have to look at returns, just look at fund flows. Note too, that the more volatile a fund, the more active the investors and the low...
by pkcrafter
Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Behavior Gap?
Replies: 23
Views: 1855

Re: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees

Ics, each of your holdings has a different account number, right? They are different accounts. Vanguard does the same thing. I would not even consider combining the accounts just to avoid the fees. Bite the bullet, pay the fees, and transfer the accounts. Call Vanguard and let them set things up. I ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones Account Closing Fees
Replies: 90
Views: 6928

Re: bonds primer

Why Bother with Bonds, by Boglehead Rick Van Ness. Good, easy to read book

http://www.amazon.com/Rick-Van-Ness/e/B005L4QJB4

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds primer
Replies: 14
Views: 1333

Re: Is this Investing or Speculating?

frankly I am rather puzzled as to how an individual retail investor could possibly "value" a portfolio of five hundred stocks from seventeen different countries and make a judgement of them as being a better or worse investment than five hundred stocks from the United States. I recall in ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 24
Views: 2009

Re: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advis

LadyGeek wrote:I retitled the thread. OP - if you disagree, just edit the Subject: line in Post #1.

For the purposes of this discussion, "financial advisor" refers to an Investment adviser.

OP? He left the building some time ago when he realized he couldn't sell something.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15683

Re: Help with retirement portfolio

Hi, I don't have much time this morning, but wanted to add a few general comments. and bump your post. I am going to try this again. My first post seemed to have too many questions so I will try to simplify it here. My wife and I will retire this summer. We would like to: Configure our retirement f...
by pkcrafter
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with retirement portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 592

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

Sharpematt wrote: After reading, I feel the readership here does miss on two key points that I'd like to share. 1) Covered Calls are an incredibly powerful tool that seem to be underutilized by Bogleheads. Selling covered calls is a low risk way of selling bets to gamblers. They do not impede divers...
by pkcrafter
Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15683

Re: American Funds

I agree with Willift. If you can make an in-service rollover every two years, then this is a very good idea. The tax deferred space is very valuable.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1196

Re: American Funds

stevmrny, OK, next question, are the loads waived on the A shares? That would be normal for a 401k plan, but I also assume your company is paying nothing, so perhaps the loads are enforced which is a good deal for American, but not for you. You are getting a 2 or 3% match, but that doesn't even cove...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1196

Re: American Funds

stvmrny, it might be worth it to post the tickers of some of the funds available to see if it actually is broke. Also, who is providing the plan, American or someone else like Principle? I ask because your employer may have been sold C shares or A shares without the load waived. It's pretty clear th...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1196

Re: Advice on guiding an hour discussion with military

Tell them to stay away from the TSP investment website. Paul ?? TSP is great. He might be referring to the websites that tell you how to invest your TSP money. I view them as entertainment only but others might be seduced by their promises of greater wealth than by not following their precepts and ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice on guiding an hour discussion with military
Replies: 35
Views: 1948

Re: Variable spending strategies paper by Pfau

Beliavsky wrote: Looking at the tables in the paper, no spending strategy stands out as the best to me. Maybe that is the point -- there are trade-offs. If you think about it, you will realize every investing/withdrawing decision involves trade-offs and compromise. You cannot know what optimal will ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable spending strategies paper by Pfau
Replies: 32
Views: 3112

Re: Chosing Mutual Funds: Indexed or Managed

What will this money be used for and what are the two funds?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 16, 2015 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chosing Mutual Funds: Indexed or Managed
Replies: 9
Views: 994

Re: Hidden Fees

The thing your friend needs most is to get out of EJ. TRP good, but fund expense ratios a bit higher than they should be. Moving EJ to Vanguard or even TRP would be friend's best option. Vanguard will even manage for 0.3% with 100k min.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hidden Fees
Replies: 2
Views: 361
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