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Re: Newbie ??

Welcome, more info needed to make good suggestions. This link will provide a template for background.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... f=1&t=6212

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newbie ??
Replies: 4
Views: 273

Re: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrate

We are using LS conservative, which is 11.8% international. That will increase to 15.7%. Not too much to get excited about. International bond goes from 12.1% to 18% :thumbsup I'm not sure of the rationale behind this change because Vanguard's own study shows optimal international range from 20-40%,...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 26, 2015 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 54
Views: 2795

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

610gpm wrote:75

Now I will look.


verrrry close.


Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3419

Re: Why does Vanguard sell anything other than SP500 Index f

rakamaka, obvious, always, and never are three words that should not be used with discussing investing. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard sell anything other than SP500 Index fund?
Replies: 18
Views: 1755

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

I don't know much about the S&P500 other than it's cap weighted meaning that it's overweight the most expensive stocks and underweight the cheapest ones. :) Commander, the S&P500 floats all boats equally. A company that has a market cap 2x another company in the index gets 2x more of your i...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3419

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Rodc wrote:
Speaking of streaks and interesting patterns, since 1928 the S&P 500 has had more than 50 instances where it's advanced at least eight days in a row.


Pretty good for an index started in 1957...


Now THAT is an interesting fact!

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3419

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

Not only do you have to see something coming, you have to know when it's actually going to happen. Many investors got out of the market in 1995, four years too early, thus missing some incredible gains. Then you have to know when to get back in. Much easier to see in hindsight. In the throws of pani...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 2688

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Thanks dbr and DonC. Your input is leading in the direction I'd like to go/explore. Academic definitions work for the academically-minded, but don't for the majority of individual investors. For instance, standard deviation tells us the range of swings a particular fund will have. What is often left...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

Good discussion on will-power. Investors tend to say and even write down, I will not sell in a downturn . That's easy to do and easy to follow when the market isn't actually dropping like a rock. Investors can even find support on an investing forum or group gathering; however, when the market does ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4164

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Bustoff has it right. Read Taleb, then read Mandelbrot. Then, go play golf. I've done all three! The problem I'm trying to overcome is the academic definition of risk. I think the majority of individual investors will skip over anything defined this way. Bustoff and Kevin have provided correct defi...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Do most active managers outperform index before expense?

There is a way for all active managers to beat the index. They can collude to buy only a given subset of stocks. Those stocks will outperform the market. Since the index has to hold all stocks, it will underperform. No, if all active managers buy only a given subset of stocks, that mix becomes the ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active managers outperform the index by 0.12% before fees?
Replies: 22
Views: 1674

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

bengal22 wrote: Our personalities(investment profile) determines if we are more worried about 3 then 2. So somehow we process all these possibilities and factor in our income need and we determine how much risk we can shoulder. I think part of the problem is personalities and perceptions of risk can...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

LittleD wrote: If the goal is to beat the S&P 500 over long periods of time, it is not that hard to do. If it were actually that easy, it would be the market profile. Paul Not necessarily...the S&P 500 is not the market. Small Cap Value has trounced the S&P 500 and the Market over long ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4164

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Nisiprius wrote: Usually, the behavioral economists say, we not only are wrong, but we are far too overconfident and when asked to pick a range of error, invariably pick too narrow a range, so the real number almost always falls outside it. So let me call that my "bold guess" and say I wil...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3419

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Thanks to all, very insightful feedback. I think part of my problem is that defining stock risk, bond risk, investing risk, do not cover all risks. Example: I just read a post where someone said "it's easy to beat the index, all you have to do is use xxx portfolio. Also, there is risk in not ta...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

SpaceCommander wrote: The issue is not value vs. growth, it's mutual funds vs. the index. Or... Investors vs the index. LittleD wrote: If the goal is to beat the S&P 500 over long periods of time, it is not that hard to do. If it were actually that easy, it would be the market profile. Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4164

10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Ten facts about the S&P500, Article 2013.

Take a guess--how many original stocks are still in the S&P500? Post your guess--no peeking :happy

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... he-sp.aspx

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3419

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

My theory is investors who attempt to beat the market by either factor overload or choosing a hot manager increase their awareness of performance and their intolerance for performance less than they would gotten if they just held total market. They went out on the limb for something extra, and if th...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4164

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

Thanks for the feedback. I'll clarify my goal as being able to explain to a new investor what risk is and how to deal with it. "Risk is in the eye of the beholder" is a pretty common expression here, and it's true, but it really does not help a new investor. I'm trying to think outside the...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

The possibility of needing money and not having it is the only risk that intuitively makes sense to me. Isn't avoiding that situation the whole point of essentially all financial planning? Agreed. And isn't financial planning risk management? :sharebeer This risk is best mitigated by having lots of...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

How often do you go into the dictionary to look up a word, and find that only one meaning is listed next to it? Practically never. Technically, almost every word has multiple meanings — and the word "risk" isn't any different, as best I can tell. The dictionary: Risky: Accompanied by or i...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Risk--Again. The common stepping stone

If you thought I have found the common ground, I have not. And that's why I'm trying again. This time not looking for common ground, but maybe a common stepping stone. I am bothered by the fact that we cannot seem to have a single unanimous point to agree on. Are we missing a seed somewhere? My firs...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 45
Views: 2306

Re: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance

CRC301, Fallible wrote: The difference is relatively small, but since age isn't the only factor, what I wonder is whether your wife has also studied up on AA, including how to determine her personal risk tolerance. Has she decided on her own that, say, 80/20 matches that tolerance? I agree the diffe...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance
Replies: 19
Views: 1289

Re: any one has commenst on this growth modl

It's not bad, but either go with mid blend or mid value. No direct investment in small. The inclusion of healthcare smacks of recency. Where are the bonds?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any one has commenst on this growth modl
Replies: 8
Views: 512

Re: Market Top

Went birdwatching this morning. Walked the neighborhood this morning and saw the following: Great Egret Belted Kingfisher Cardinal Blue Jay Robin White-winged dove Mourning dove Carolina wren Black vulture Egyptian geese Mockingbird Chickadee Crow Nicely diversified, but it begs the question, do yo...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [What to do at] Market Top
Replies: 57
Views: 4869

Re: Scott Burns on Factor investing

For the moment just two things are clear. First, that simple is better most of the time. Second, that the odds are against complexity.

Someone should tell Taylor Larimore about this. Oh, wait a minute--He's light years ahead of the researchers on this one.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 21, 2015 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns on Factor investing
Replies: 5
Views: 920

Re: why do some people like Fidelity?

I just found out one feature that I do not like Fidelity: some funds have a 'hold' period, for example, FSGDX fund, there is a '90 days" period that if you want to redeem, there is 1% fee. FSTMX fund has a lower fee, 0.5%, in you redeem in 90 days. this prevent people from frequent trading, wh...
by pkcrafter
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do some people like Fidelity?
Replies: 67
Views: 6605

Re: Financial Advisor, worth it? - McAdam

Are you referring to McAdam Financial Group from Philly? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-planning-firm-mcadam-launches-143356183.html This seems to be layers of management, and that no doubt means layers of fees. McAdam->Advisors->Schwab. Cant find the cost, although it appears the advisors ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor, worth it? - McAdam
Replies: 26
Views: 1909

Re: Two Hedge Fund Managers Walk into a Bar...

Thanks Michael, funny with a lot of truth it it. The same applies to fund managers--all talented, all top of class. When talent is all pretty much equal, the outstanding managers' emerge because their strategy just happens to be aligned with the stars. Of course, the market is always moving and the ...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Hedge Fund Managers Walk into a Bar...
Replies: 10
Views: 1711

Re: What is Risk?

The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Asset...
by pkcrafter
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Risk?
Replies: 27
Views: 1308

Re: What is Risk?

[quote="fortyofforty"]I have been thinking a bit about risk, and how fellow Bogleheads define "risk". Ha, you're not the only one. I and many others on the forum have been trying to pin down risk, but it looks like it can't be done. So, I'll give you my thoughts. First, risk is d...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Risk?
Replies: 27
Views: 1308

Re: Funds - Where is the profit / how is it derived

Sorry for the very beginner questions. retiredjg has provided good information, so I'll just try to provide a little different view. I understand that when I have a VG fund or any fund I can profit in 3 ways, dividends, distribution and the units rising in price. There is, in the bigger picture, on...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Funds - Where is the profit / how is it derived
Replies: 3
Views: 368

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

There are two sides to DR--dept and investing. These are very different. DR is very good at the dept issue, and no one is arguing with that. However, he's waaay off the mark on investing. Bogle does comment on debt, but he's 90% about investing. He right, DR is wrong on investing principles. I canno...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 9585

Happy Birthday, Bogleheads

[Post merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] :thumbsup February 19 marks the 8th anniversary of the Bogleheads. :sharebeer Many thanks to Alex Frakt and Larry Auton for creating Bogleheads.org. Also thanks to Taylor Larimore and Mel Lindauer for creating the old Morningstar Diehards in Marc...
by pkcrafter
Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE BOGLEHEADS FORUM
Replies: 30
Views: 2315

Re: Investing Advice to Mother/Father In Law

My mother and father in law ages 57/62 "essentially retired" went to a local insurance/investment broker for health insurance info. After the broker found out that my in laws had a nice nest egg sitting in a savings account for the past few years (I know! It's sad the $$$ has been languis...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Advice to Mother/Father In Law
Replies: 16
Views: 1187

Re: 20% of portfolio in High Yield Bonds?

20% of bond allocation, maybe. From the Wiki, High-Yield Bonds: Should investors choose to include junk bonds for their diversification and potential high returns? Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation suggests 20% of fixed income or 10% of the overall portfolio for early-accumulators, midlife-acc...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20% of portfolio in High Yield Bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1830

Series 7 Test Prep

Series 7 Test Prep. How much do you know? Find out.

http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/series-7/

Paul
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series 7 Test Prep
Replies: 0
Views: 182

Re: Using the "10 year" and "Since Inception" to pick funds

Deerrunner wrote: I have a pretty good feel for my approach in terms of AA, risk tolerance, diversification, etc.... I know that past performance doesn't indicate future returns . But... But? There is no but. when looking at a few different funds in the same class, why wouldn't I go with the one(s) ...
by pkcrafter
Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using the "10 year" and "Since Inception" to pick funds
Replies: 23
Views: 1605

Re: Cap Gains & Divs killed me this year

ps56, We don't know what you hold or your tax bracket, but you did mention Windsor. If you are holding Windsor in taxable, it makes me wonder what other tax-inefficient funds you're holding. I assume you have thoroughly studied up on tax-efficient investing.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap Gains & Divs killed me this year
Replies: 61
Views: 5844

Re: Why Active Management Fell Off a Cliff

Thanks, Richard. I believe the equally-talented manager theory is only part of the story. There is more. There is Dunn's Law and momentum. Dunn's law says when an asset class does well, an index fund in that asset class will usually outperform actively managed funds. Note there is nothing scientific...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active Management Fell Off a Cliff
Replies: 6
Views: 1509

Re: Bond investors...is there a crash on the horizon..!!

market timer wrote:Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) is down over 11% in the past 2.5 weeks. We are already over half-way to a bear market in long term Treasuries.

EDV is an interesting fund. Duration, 25 years. Turnover 17%.

2008- +55%
2009- -36%
2014- +45%
2015- +14%

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investors...is there a crash on the horizon..!!
Replies: 43
Views: 3072

Re: Friend's 401k offers regular deferrals, and Roth.

Your friend's fund selection needs to consider cost of funds. You said Lifecycle. Does this mean Vanguard or some high cost option?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend's 401k offers regular deferrals, and Roth.
Replies: 7
Views: 344

Re: Projecting “Increasing Withdrawal Rates” and not SWR

I wonder if anyone has a POV on the reality of planning for constant, inflation-adjusted withdrawals from savings during retirement? For instance, is planning for flat sustainable withdrawal rates (SWR) real, even if adjusted for inflation. My DW and I are retiring soon and so I did a detailed, bot...
by pkcrafter
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Projecting “Increasing Withdrawal Rates” and not SWR
Replies: 35
Views: 2503

Re: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income

The bloom is coming off this rose... I'm curbing my enthusiasm. I hope we don't have to compare Wade Pfau to Tony Robbins. I figured a full-time annuity salesman might have a sunnier view. When I called Stan Haithcock, he answered with his usual greeting: “Stan the Annuity Man!” And his opinion of f...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income
Replies: 31
Views: 4296

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

My thinking is, such an idea as investing in Greek and Russian individual stocks isn't a Boglehead investment strategy, not even a hybrid. From your friend's description, it sounds like a sure thing. If you want to do it, use play waste money.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1149

Re: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income

I would feel better about this if there wasn't a sales pitch aspect. I mean, a document on immediateannuities.com which recommends immediate annuities. Who would have thought? I wondered the same thing. Here's a link to Annexus. I don't know if what they are advocating is something different, or ju...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income
Replies: 31
Views: 4296

Re: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income

SGM wrote: After reading about FIAs they sound very similar to equity indexed annuities that the SEC warned us about in the past. Not to worry, the clever insurance business simply removed the "equity index" name, so now it's better, right? I think the FIA is indeed based on an equity inde...
by pkcrafter
Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income
Replies: 31
Views: 4296

Re: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income

Nisiprius, I wondered the same thing about the FIA. Wade explains it here...and I still wonder. What's the cost on such a thing? With the onslaught of the baby boomers and the expected corresponding demand for investment control, a new generation of risk-pooled income evolved. These were generically...
by pkcrafter
Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Four Risks of Retirement Income
Replies: 31
Views: 4296
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