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by pkcrafter
Mon May 04, 2015 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell in May, go away, and think about it?
Replies: 8
Views: 893

Re: Sell in May, go away, and think about it?

If you'd like some historical perspectives on the "sell in May" strategy, type "Shudhi" in the search box. Getting nothing. Pls can you give the actual link. It's Sudhi. Some may remember the "favorable season." Link to old M* search. http://socialize.morningstar.com/N...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality/Value/Momentum Index
Replies: 28
Views: 1345

Re: Quality/Value/Momentum Index

Thanks, lack_ey, I'll read your references.

And one more reference--John Bogle's Telltale Chart.

http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality/Value/Momentum Index
Replies: 28
Views: 1345

Re: Quality/Value/Momentum Index

Doc misquoted, attributing what I said to Johnny, so perhaps the "funny" comments were directed at my post.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality/Value/Momentum Index
Replies: 28
Views: 1345

Re: Quality/Value/Momentum Index

Johnny, what do you believe drives the momentum factor? It just seems to be that if you are trying to exploit both momentum and value, you have to time your moves. AQR fund, QCELX, combines these 2 factors plus profitability. The fund has a low ER, but it also has a turnover of 277%. Wow! Another AQ...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1655

Re: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?

Rx 4 wrote: From Rick Ferri "I'm not a pure index investor on the bond side. My portfolios hold Vanguard municipal bond funds and the Vanguard high yield corporate bonds fund. These are well diversified, low-cost actively managed products. I see these products as "better index funds" ...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality/Value/Momentum Index
Replies: 28
Views: 1345

Re: Quality/Value/Momentum Index

Maynard wrote: I think it's one of those cases where, if you wait for the forward results to see whether it works, it'll already be too late to capture whatever premium there may or may not be .. Personally I think the case for combining value and momentum is compelling enough to invest Combining MO...
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality/Value/Momentum Index
Replies: 28
Views: 1345

Re: Quality/Value/Momentum Index

This new index, AIQVM, was created by Arrow, who is coincidently, the same group that also created an ETF to track it. Fund first, index second. Backtested 10 years? Really? Neither index nor fund existed for this time period. :confused

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun May 03, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1655

Re: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?

Rx 4 wrote: Bond funds, active or passive ? According to data cited at the end of the recent WealthTrack program on unconstrained bond funds , here are the percentages of non-index bond fund managers that outpeformed the Barclay's U.S. Aggregate Index: OK, true, but it's the same mistake made by Gol...
by pkcrafter
Sat May 02, 2015 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities: Bad in principle or practice?
Replies: 69
Views: 3207

Re: Annuities: Bad in principle or practice?

I am talking to wife. She wants to catch Spring Chinook Salmon but does not want to hire a guide because the guide cannot guarantee the catch. So what is the alternative? She wants to catch a Spring Chinook Salmon and wants to DIY but has no boat, equipment, or knowledge to where to catch the fish....
by pkcrafter
Sat May 02, 2015 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Library offers free access to M* research center
Replies: 2
Views: 367

Library offers free access to M* research center

In case you don't know, you may be able to access things like M* research center, Consumer Reports and other subscriptions online at home through your library for free. I just discovered my local library offers these and others.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat May 02, 2015 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1655

Re: Do Active Bond Funds Beat Index Bond Funds?

storcher, you have been given good answers, but I'm going to take this one step further because it's a pet peeve. Goldberg's article is typical of someone who doesn't understand what he's talking about. The problem is perpetuated by Morningstar, which is perhaps the leading source of online informat...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 01, 2015 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Fund Selection
Replies: 19
Views: 926

Re: Target Date Fund Selection

I have TRP 2045 fund in my work 401k with Fidelity. Would it be a wise choice to have my roth in the same fund: I like the 2045 Vanguard fund better than the Fidelity 2045 fund but the TRP 2045 beats both... Any suggestions? maximize your companies match in the 401K, and use a different approach in...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 01, 2015 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better for the long run?
Replies: 11
Views: 749

Re: Better for the long run?

InQuiSiToR_187 wrote:
but isn't picking winners obvious?

Picking past winners is obvious, not so much for future winners. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 01, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Fund Selection
Replies: 19
Views: 926

Re: Target Date Fund Selection

Domer, using a Vanguard TR fund in addition to the TRP fund is fine. Both are broadly diversified. Both of these funds are about 86% stock, which is pretty high for a 40 year old. Are you sure you can handle the volatility?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 01, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with calculation on what to do
Replies: 4
Views: 358

Re: Help with calculation on what to do

Domer, why aren't you maxing the 401k(s)?. I checked an earlier post and it appears you and wife both has access to them, but I didn't see the choices. Do you have only high cost options? Using the 300k, you could put 36k into 401ks and another 11k into Roths or TIRAs each year.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri May 01, 2015 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Unconstrained" food fight
Replies: 6
Views: 1246

Re: "Unconstrained" food fight

Stratton wrote: Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX) is a multi-sector bond fund too, but it also has limits and is less aggressive than FAGIX. Loomis Sayles. Now there's a name that was hugely popular about 15 years ago, but you don't hear much about now. LS plugging along, and ol' Fuss is still doing his th...
by pkcrafter
Fri May 01, 2015 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities: Bad in principle or practice?
Replies: 69
Views: 3207

Re: Annuities: Bad in principle or practice?

So is it the obscurity and high fees that make them bad, or are they inherently unfavorable to individual investors? If you removed the obscurity, high fees, commissions, etc. would they still be bad?

No.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Unconstrained" food fight
Replies: 6
Views: 1246

"Unconstrained" food fight

How many here own one of these? Bond guru Bill Gross, most recently of Janus Capital and before that founder of fixed income giant Pimco, started just such a fund in 2014. He was not mentioned by any of the speakers, but the fund category itself was skewered. "There are asset owners that are go...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: due diligence on fee-only advisor
Replies: 4
Views: 311

Re: due diligence on fee-only advisor

Dave, take a look at this thread and the link I provided in the last post. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=164660 You may also be talking with a financial planner instead of an investment advisor. Financial plans are quite comprehensive and require a lot of hours. An advisor...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Aversion vs. Loss Aversion
Replies: 17
Views: 1247

Re: Risk Aversion vs. Loss Aversion

Dulocracy, congratulations, you have reframed loss in a way that can be coped with and managed. Price fluctuation is always present, but number of shares are still there unless the investor actually does something dumb. This may be termed controlling volatility risk by some, and they may point out t...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 5464

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982

Stock buybacks, huh. Why are such massive resources being devoted to stock repurchases? Corporate executives give several reasons, which I will discuss later. But none of them has close to the explanatory power of this simple truth: Stock-based instruments make up the majority of their pay, and in t...
by pkcrafter
Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to advise clients
Replies: 16
Views: 1366

Re: How to advise clients

Greenman, I guess maybe 80% of investors don't know enough about investing to do it correctly. Investors lose money in two major ways, first by paying too much money to brokers. They don't know the distinction between a broker and a certified financial advisor who must carry fiduciary duty. The high...
by pkcrafter
Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer Retirement Plan Fee Question
Replies: 4
Views: 254

Re: Employer Retirement Plan Fee Question

No, the fee is not normal. It appears to be much less than normal. :happy Any other fees listed?

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hourly Financial Advisor -- Yeah, right!
Replies: 14
Views: 2212

Re: Hourly Financial Advisor -- Yeah, right!

palarry, you probably met with a financial planner. Planners provide comprehensive long term plans after considering everything in your particular situation. $1800 for one of those plans is not out of line from what I've seen. Perhaps what you wanted was just a review of your investment strategy, wh...
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which SPIA ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1761

Re: Which SPIA ?

Stan gives quality rankings, but no word on costs.

Here's an article on SPIA costs from Retire Early I haven't seen before, although it's possible it was posted several years ago.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/annuity_costs.html

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which stock fund is the least volatile in bear market?
Replies: 13
Views: 1364

Re: Which stock fund is the least volatile in bear market?

Thank you. The reason I am asking the question is that my ira is all bond fund. I was advised not put bond fund in taxable account, my tax rate is not high enough to warrant muni, and stock market is so high, therefore my concern is the safety, not the growth of the stock fund. What do you suggest ...
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Losing Sleep, Help with portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 3046

Re: Losing Sleep, Help with portfolio

Please help Forum Experts, I feel like a fish out of water. Managing this money is wearing me out and I'm not even sure what I'm doing. If you feel like managing is wearing you out, you are doing it wrong. Approaching retirement can feel uncomfortable unless you have confidence in your plan. Under ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Great List of Useless Financial Porn Phrases
Replies: 30
Views: 3976

Re: A Great List of Useless Financial Porn Phrases

And, "earnings failed to meet forecasts." Or, so much for assuming responsibility for crappy forecasting.


No, no. The forecast was right, the earnings were wrong. :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing on Margin
Replies: 63
Views: 3596

Re: Investing on Margin

Margin: If Taylor Larimore does not endorse it, then don't even consider it. I don't believe any Boglehead book recommends using margin.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Policymaking
Replies: 5
Views: 389

Re: Policymaking

Planner, I think the topic will be judged to be against policy. Sorry.

viewtopic.php?t=405

Paul
by pkcrafter
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie...What did I invest in???
Replies: 11
Views: 1222

Re: Newbie...What did I invest in???

Thank you for your replies and links. They were extremely helpful. After finding this website I realizedI made a huge mistake. I moved the majority of my liquid assets to this brokerage/ retirement company. The cash was converted to an actively managed stock fund where everyday stocks are traded in...
by pkcrafter
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Great List of Useless Financial Porn Phrases
Replies: 30
Views: 3976

Re: A Great List of Useless Financial Porn Phrases

How about creating a few new ones. Like....

We know, you benefit.
by pkcrafter
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is too long to stay the course?
Replies: 50
Views: 3520

Re: What is too long to stay the course?

Wow, sawhorse, your post raises an array of fundamental points and questions. I'll mention just a few major ones. What is the limit for staying the course? There is no limit for staying the course IF you've set a proper course. No Boglehead would have suggested anyone put 100% of assets into the NAS...
by pkcrafter
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New learner question regarding 401k fund with high ER
Replies: 4
Views: 505

Re: New learner question regarding 401k fund with high ER

My question is the best "performance" fund in my portfolio is the Hartford Healthcare Fund Class R3 (1.64%). Yes yes, past performance is not an indicator of future performance Uh, past performance is not an indicator of future performance. :happy We are seeing a lot of posters suddenly a...
by pkcrafter
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Fund question
Replies: 7
Views: 666

Re: Beginner Fund question

You didn't list Harbor, but it's just like Fidelity, no Canada or emerging markets. Using 2% for any allocation is too small to have any impact on a portfolio. You should not use a target retirement fund as a guide for your own asset allocation. The TR funds are very aggressive and may not be suitab...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Fund question
Replies: 7
Views: 666

Re: Beginner Fund question

I agree with Lack_ey, your best choices are the Spartan funds. If you go that route, then you will need to fill out international in your IRA or just use Vanguard total international. You should view all accounts as one portfolio, which is why we recommend doing it this way. I don't like the Fidelit...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Bogleheads really follow the 3-4% SWR rule?
Replies: 48
Views: 4474

Re: Do you Bogleheads really follow the 3-4% SWR rule?

coachz, if you want to review a few studies, here's one from Morningstar's David Blanchette. You can also look up studies from Vangaurd and a few from Wade Pfau/Michael Kitces. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCQQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best tool for MF performance charting?
Replies: 2
Views: 199

Re: Best tool for MF performance charting?

OK, but someone has to ask, Why? :happy

Paul
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA when you don't know what age you'll retire?
Replies: 19
Views: 1358

Re: AA when you don't know when you'll retire?

Vitaflo wrote: This has caused a slight dilemma for me. I had been following the Target Date 2040 fund and its AA for my investments (but I invest in the funds individually). However, there is a good chance should business continue on this path for the next 10 years I could comfortably retire at age...
by pkcrafter
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Requested: How many ETFs & Index Funds is too much?
Replies: 32
Views: 1747

Re: Help Requested: How many ETFs & Index Funds is too much?

noob, we recommend you look at all accounts as parts of one portfolio. When you do that, you will see that you have lots of unnecessary overlap. It looks like you have two slightly different ideas of what you want to do. Please define your proposed portfolio because the ETF portfolio and the funds p...
by pkcrafter
Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500 Index or Large Cap Index
Replies: 8
Views: 780

Re: 500 Index or Large Cap Index

Thanks, here's a look at the holdings. Notice that the fund is growth, not blend, and it holds ~23% international. This is a normal problem with many active funds--the allocations and style move and mess up overall diversification. The more important point is you should not compare a fund like this ...
by pkcrafter
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500 Index or Large Cap Index
Replies: 8
Views: 780

Re: 500 Index or Large Cap Index

student, what is the name or ticker of the fund you sold?

thanks,

Paul
by pkcrafter
Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"
Replies: 46
Views: 4332

Re: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"

Buffett provides an excellent perspective on "risk", in fact I think this is the best and most useful thing he's ever said. People tend to forget there are many kinds of risk, which is why it's hard to have discussions on it. Buffet is reminding us that risks takes different forms. They ar...
by pkcrafter
Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't get excited about bond funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1555

Re: Can't get excited about bond funds

Can't get excited about bond funds

Good, you're not supposed to. :happy

diversification = cash AND bonds AND equities. Cash is safer than bonds, but pays out less. The rule doesn't actually say you must be in bonds, it says diversify equity risk with bonds and/or cash.

Paul
by pkcrafter
Mon Apr 20, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions for Financial Adviser
Replies: 18
Views: 881

Re: Questions for Financial Adviser

In our experience, the funds were placed into expensive funds, such as FESGX First Eagle Global Fund Class C and IAAAX Transamerica Asset Allocation Growth Portfolio Class A and then they just sat there for years. I would avoid any advisor who uses class C funds because they have an ongoing commiss...
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone had the Personal Capital complementary review yet?
Replies: 15
Views: 2213

Re: Anyone had the Personal Capital complementary review yet

They say they mimic the s&p 500 but weight it equally instead of the cap based
:confused

Paul
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify or pursue a financial advisor?
Replies: 9
Views: 1231

Re: Should I simplify or pursue a financial advisor?

If you would feel more comfortable, then nothing wrong with seeing a financial planner (not advisor) who will work up a detailed retirement overview of your situation and provide a plan. Costs will be hourly $200-400/hour with minimum of 2 hours, but more like 3-4. You can get a lot of your question...
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trading Platform Software
Replies: 4
Views: 424

Re: Trading Platform Software

rew, welcome to the forum. You obviously landed here by accident, but since you are here, you have the opportunity to learn about investing vs trading--they are very different things. We don't advocate trading, but we do offer sound investing principles. Take a look if you wish-- http://www.boglehea...
by pkcrafter
Sun Apr 19, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Coming to terms with low risk tolerance
Replies: 46
Views: 3489

Re: Coming to terms with low risk tolerance

sawhorse, you are wise to use an AA that you can be comfortable holding--45/55. There is no "ideal" AA, so don't get bogged down with that idea. It's far better to hold an AA you can stay with than to have one that causes you to sell in a downturn. Investors who do this earn significantly ...
by pkcrafter
Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 5862

Re: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?

Hey all, I'm kind of thinking I should do the same with my VTSMX! Thoughts? You don't own VTSMX, so nothing to do there. I have everything in Vanguards Life strategy Growth fund so I'm certainly taking a hit. Not much of a hit. VASGX down less than 1% yesterday. Will you be so eager if it falls 35%...

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